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China As A Future Superpower  
User currently offlineGkirk From UK - Scotland, joined Jun 2000, 24899 posts, RR: 56
Posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 1512 times:

Hi
Was having a think and with the way things are developing in China, do you think they will become an economic/military/social world super power, and possibly overtake the USA as THE world superpower anytime in the future?
Your thoughts please, and keep it civil  Smile


When you hear the noise of the Tartan Army Boys, we'll be coming down the road!
66 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineYyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16239 posts, RR: 56
Reply 1, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 1506 times:

I predict they will eventually become a world economic & military power, but not before a few missteps. No country has ever become prosperous without shaking off the yoke of dictatorship (I guess SIN is one counter example). As China becomes wealthier, its citizens will become more prosperous and (as in other countries) will begin to demand more democracy. I think in the next 10 years we may a rising-up against the the Communist Party which could result in something akin to civil war.

I also see a strong possiblity of a China-Taiwan war which would seriously harm the Chinese economy.



Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offlineConcordeBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 1500 times:

Quoting Yyz717 (Reply 1):
I also see a strong possiblity of a China-Taiwan war

Agreed



Quoting Yyz717 (Reply 1):
which would seriously harm the Chinese economy.

...both internally, and possible in terms of foreign relations as well.


User currently offlineDIJKKIJK From France, joined Jul 2003, 1780 posts, RR: 4
Reply 3, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 1498 times:

Quoting Yyz717 (Reply 1):
I also see a strong possiblity of a China-Taiwan war which would seriously harm the Chinese economy.

In the event of a war, it will take only a few minutes for China to overrun Taiwan. And their economy will remain as strong as it is.

Things might turn out differently though, if "you-know-who-I-am-talking-about" decides to liberate Taiwan, but I wonder they'll do that given China's economic importance.



Never argue with idiots. They will bring you down to their level, and beat you with experience.
User currently offlineYyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16239 posts, RR: 56
Reply 4, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 1489 times:

Quoting DIJKKIJK (Reply 3):
In the event of a war, it will take only a few minutes for China to overrun Taiwan. And their economy will remain as strong as it is.

Actually, Taiwan is extremely well defended, and extremely mountainous. China does not have the military power (short of nukes) to successfully invade Taiwan. The only likely result is a draw with no gains, but much economic loss.



Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offline777236ER From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 1482 times:

They are a superpower. Huge population, very important economy (just look at how their demand for oil is affecting the West), they are very important militarily (especially with respect to North Korea) and they're a world power socially at least in so far as the entire Western country is built upon labour in China et al.

I disagree with Yyz717 about Communism and power. The USSR was a superpower, surpressing the US in the early days. It had economic, military and social might, despite its political system.


User currently offlineJaysit From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 1476 times:

There is more to being a superpower than just tanks and guns and factories churning out goods.

The issue here is that how much can China culturally affect the world? People around the world dismiss the US as having no culture (as if culture only means Kings and Queens in castles getting their heads lopped off), but US culture permeates the entire world and is very powerful. Chinese culture is still more traditional and is geographically restricted. If China can compete with the US in the global cultural sphere, then, yes, it can become a superpower.


User currently offlineRussophile From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 1465 times:

Quoting Yyz717 (Reply 4):
Actually, Taiwan is extremely well defended, and extremely mountainous

It matters not that Taiwan is mountainous, for the mountains are all on the east side of the island, with very little population on the east.

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 2):
...both internally, and possible in terms of foreign relations as well.

The only way that China would invade Taiwan is if the Taiwanese declare independence. Considering that the world has diplomatic relations with China, recognising Beijing as the only legitimate government, Taiwan would be seen as the provocateur in any instance. Except maybe by the US. It certainly would be an interesting war -- if only to see if any countries aside from Japan and South Korea would join the US.

Anyway, to back what 777236ER said -- China already is a superpower -- largest population, 2nd largest economy (and growing) and a huge and expanding military.


User currently offlineGarnetpalmetto From United States of America, joined Oct 2003, 5344 posts, RR: 53
Reply 8, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 1457 times:

Quoting Russophile (Reply 7):
largest population, 2nd largest economy (and growing) and a huge and expanding military.

Population really isn't a requirement of beina superpower, though, russophile. Consider that England, a fairly small nation-state, was THE superpower of the 19th century, despite France's best efforts to the contrary. The main requirements, as recognized by most political scientists are

1) Military (especially naval) power
2) Economic power
3) Normative power (IE how readily accepted their influence is internationally)

Given those criteria, I'd say that China is not yet a superpower but is on the way to becoming one. In regards to military power, they certainly have the manpower, but in terms of technology, they're at least one generation behind the West and in some areas (especially the PLAN's submarine forces) two generations behind the West. Further, the PLAN is not a true blue water navy yet. Trans-Pacific expeditions aside, the PLAN is a lagging force, albeit one that's working to jump that generational gap.

Economically, sure, I'll agree with you. Normative is a tough draw, due to concerns by a good portion of the world about their human rights record, their internal freedoms, etc.

Let's also not forget too, that internally China is still a developing state. Give them 25-50 years, but in the year 2005, I would be highly hesitant to hang the "superpower" monniker around the PRC.



South Carolina - too small to be its own country, too big to be a mental asylum.
User currently offlineBN747 From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 5613 posts, RR: 51
Reply 9, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 1443 times:

Quoting Yyz717 (Reply 4):
Actually, Taiwan is extremely well defended, and extremely mountainous. China does not have the military power (short of nukes) to successfully invade Taiwan.

Oh brother....

China's Air Force is 10x the size of Taiwans'

There Navy dwarfs Taiwans'

And the troop strength.... don't even go there!


They could blockade the island effortlessly. Attack the airbases by air and sea.

Drop 1000s of paratroopers into CKS and Kaoshiungs Airports and take control of those (decoy paratroopers into every major city). Taiwans limited Air Force would be forced to choose between attacking ships, engage in air-to-air combat or defend the cities against troop drops. They'd be overrun in a matter of jours if not minutes. A massive Air/Sea attack by China would seal the deal within a week or two. As much as I'd hate see it happen.. if by force, China could do it with out breaking a sweat.

Street combat 'Iraqi style' would never materialize... the chinese (Taiwanese) capitalist have built up too much to let it all go to hell so quickly... they'd cut a deal before the 1st bomb would fall.

Taiwans' mountain are a defense against what exactly?

And yes, China is already a Superpower.

BN747



"Home of the Brave, made by the Slaves..Land of the Free, if you look like me.." T. Jefferson
User currently offlineAirlinerfreak From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 1438 times:

Oh boy could I go on for hours on this, which I will probably find myself doing but the simple answer is they already are. When it comes time for me to actually have to pursue something in life I am going to pursue international business. Hang in there I am going to get to my point eventually. I would really like to be a professional athlete, but that is not reasonable as of now. But I think it would be fun to deal with different countries, and somewhat slow down the sort of monopoly that China is becoming. Also opening up "new trade routes." I think we should open up more manufacturing plants in Mexico so they can stop coming up here and get good pay down there. Because, at the end of the day, what jobs do they end up having. I also think we should stop taking advantage of India and move into cities that are hurting to stay alive such as Venezuela and South African cities. I think we should move businesses to places where they really need it, not where it is the cheapest.

We need to stop this monopoly that China is creating. We need to slow down China. Also, they are good copiers, they are not good makers if that makes sense. They are good at copying the product, it looks the same smells the same everything, except it does not work the same. China is a communist country that once it takes power of the world will destroy the world. What Mr. Bush is doing is destroying this country and he doesn't even know it. He is letting manufacturing being done in China, he is letting our calls go to people who can barely speak English, and he is letting the Saudi's take an ownership in 8% of this country we once called America. I will hold my other comments until I get attacked from some who disagree, but this is just a prelude of what I really have to say.


User currently offlineJaysit From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 1436 times:

Taiwans' mountain are a defense against what exactly?

LOL.

Against tsunamis, I guess?


User currently offlineYyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16239 posts, RR: 56
Reply 12, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 1426 times:

Quoting BN747 (Reply 9):
Taiwans' mountain are a defense against what exactly?

Effective overland attack form the coast. Mountains are always a deterrent to subduing a population, or even reaching it overland.

Quoting BN747 (Reply 9):
China's Air Force is 10x the size of Taiwans'

There Navy dwarfs Taiwans'

And the troop strength.... don't even go there!

The PRC military remains very much a 3rd world military with poor discipline, generally aged equipment, corruption and desertation. The PRC navy is also not a blue water navy. The ROC armed forced are top notch. The 10-1 ratio will not overcome any military stalemate that will ensure. Taiwan also has the power the strike military targets on the mainland.



Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offlineDL021 From United States of America, joined May 2004, 11446 posts, RR: 76
Reply 13, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 1383 times:
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The PRC is a major power merely by the fact that it has a billion or so people and the ability to launch ICBM's at the rest of the world. They are still a third world country with trouble feeding itself, and a mostly manual labor workforce run by a semi-feudal system of warlords (PLA Generals who run the manufacturing and economy). As time develops the people responsible for the successes of China will continue to demand more and more freedom. It will take a while, but its already on the way. You can't kill the spirit we saw at Tiananmen Square.

As far as Taiwan

China's Air Force is 10x the size of Taiwans'

But it's spread out and their modern fleet only now begins to match Taiwans in size and tech. The problem is that the PLAAF would not be able to put them all in theater and would suffer high losses against the ROC AF.

There Navy dwarfs Taiwans'

Once again, only technically. The Taiwanese are able to concentrate their entire force in one theater but the PRC could not. Their modern vessels would probably not enter the combat zone unless they were assured that the US was not positioning its forces in the area. If we decided to put 5 or 6 SSNs in the area the PLAN would simply be a target rich environment.

And the troop strength.... don't even go there!

You got a point there. The problem is that there's no good way to get them to Taiwan. The PLAN has practiced using the fishing and cargo fleet but you can't land forces from regular vessels onto a beach.


They could blockade the island effortlessly. Attack the airbases by air and sea.

They could not effectively blockade as long as the US is willing to meet its obligations to the Taiwanese spelled out during the negotiations with the PRC during the recognition talks. Once again it would not be difficult to sink the PLAN Navy.

Drop 1000s of paratroopers into CKS and Kaoshiungs Airports and take control of those (decoy paratroopers into every major city). Taiwans limited Air Force would be forced to choose between attacking ships, engage in air-to-air combat or defend the cities against troop drops. They'd be overrun in a matter of jours if not minutes

They don't have the ability (airlift capacity) to execute a vertical envelopment big enough to take over Taiwan especially if there is no massive invasion coming to rescue the airborne troops, which is what every airborne invasion force requires. They could probably not even get in with enough troops to take the airports they would need to airlift in more troops.


What has the Taiwanese scared is the plan to destroy their infrastructure with ballistic missiles from the shore. The PLAN AF and Army have the ability to completely wreck the cities, airfields, and ports of the ROC and the thing that everyone wonders is if the PRC is willing to lose the productivity of Taiwan for 30 years while it pacifies and rebuilds, as well as take the heat for hammering the islands from the rest of the world.



Is my Pan Am ticket to the moon still good?
User currently offlineBill142 From Australia, joined Aug 2004, 8439 posts, RR: 9
Reply 14, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 1352 times:

If China's military is as bad as some ofyou say it is then perhaps they won't be invading Taiwan anytime soon. Maybe once the arms embargos get lifted and they can get some better equipment that can rival Taiwans US supplied equipment then maybe we will start to see some action.

As for China being a super power, not yet. They are starting to gain alot of power but untill they can provide for all of their citizens the forget about it. Some parts of China don't even have electricty and clean water. Those parts probably resemble a thrid world country rather then what a 'superpower' can offer to it.
While its all well and good to be promoting China on an international level, there are other more important domestic issues to be addressed rather then trying to be seen as a force to be reckoned with.


User currently offlineHAWK21M From India, joined Jan 2001, 31660 posts, RR: 56
Reply 15, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 1350 times:

Would China be a Matured Superpower especially with the Secret Image it has.
regds
MEL



Think of the brighter side!
User currently offlineL410Turbolet From Czech Republic, joined May 2004, 5650 posts, RR: 20
Reply 16, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 1346 times:

Quoting Russophile (Reply 7):
Considering that the world has diplomatic relations with China, recognising Beijing as the only legitimate government, Taiwan would be seen as the provocateur in any instance.

How would dare they to declare independece, right? Never heard of right to self-determination, Russo?


User currently offlineDL021 From United States of America, joined May 2004, 11446 posts, RR: 76
Reply 17, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 1316 times:
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Quoting Bill142 (Reply 14):
If China's military is as bad as some ofyou say it is then perhaps they won't be invading Taiwan anytime soon

DId not say they were bad....they just aren't fully developed. Elements of the PLA are very good.

Self determination for the ROC may be a matter of a long wait to see who gives in first, or whose system succeeds.



Is my Pan Am ticket to the moon still good?
User currently offlineMham001 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3525 posts, RR: 3
Reply 18, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 1298 times:

Economically they are not quite over the hump. They have banking problems looming that need to be handled. Have to wait and see if it is. Currently, Chinese banks are holding $600 Billion in bad loans. That is going to hurt.

User currently offlineJamesAg96 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 2095 posts, RR: 3
Reply 19, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 1283 times:

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 5):
I disagree with Yyz717 about Communism and power. The USSR was a superpower, surpressing the US in the early days. It had economic, military and social might, despite its political system.

And their power continues to grow today.



Why Kate, You're not wearing a bustle. How lewd.
User currently offlineFDXMECH From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 3251 posts, RR: 35
Reply 20, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 1282 times:

>>>Economically they are not quite over the hump<<<

Correct. The US isn't quite finished giving them our industrial capacity, yet.



You're only as good as your last departure.
User currently offlineYyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16239 posts, RR: 56
Reply 21, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 1276 times:

Quoting L410Turbolet (Reply 16):
Quoting Russophile (Reply 7):
Considering that the world has diplomatic relations with China, recognising Beijing as the only legitimate government, Taiwan would be seen as the provocateur in any instance.

How would dare they to declare independece, right? Never heard of right to self-determination, Russo?

I agree with L410Turbolet. For all intents & purposes, Taiwan is an independent country already from an economic, taxation & nationalist perspective. It is also democratic. If Taiwan elects a govt that opts for true independence or proposes a referendum on separation, the West should support their ambitions. Self-determination should trump ALL politics. Let's remember that despite the booming economy in China, China is still run by a one-party Communist dictatorship that suppresses human rights -- indeed the same party that killed an estimated 25M Chinese in the 1966-76 cultural revolution. Taiwan is the true friend of the West, not China.

Regarding the term "superpower", I define it as the military ability to dominate or control ANY part of the world. Only the US has this capability now. The USSR had it, but lost it. China does not have it, nor is it likely to for 50 years.



Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offlineJaysit From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 1257 times:

I think that China was shocked out of its stupor back in 1996 during the Taiwan crisis, when the US sent gunships to face off to China's bullying tactics. Since then it has spent billions in beefing up its military. Taiwan's military expenditures have remained stagnant.

Still, even if China did invade Taiwan successfully by sheer might alone, it would not qualify as a superpower. Could it say, engage in the same level of military might as the US did in Iraq thousands of miles from home? No.

However, I still believe that being a superpower means that you export your culture overseas too - as the US has done successfully, and as the Soviets did for a limited time with exporting communism. China's culture still remains a mystery to most people around the world. Right now its just the largest and most important factory in the world.


User currently offlineDLKAPA From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 1252 times:

Based on the exponential growth of China's GDP, and the shrinking of the US GDP, I think you'll see China becoming a superpower within 20 years.

User currently offlineJaysit From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (9 years 3 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 1245 times:

The US GDP is not shrinking.
Its just not growing at the same rate as China's (3% vs 10%).


25 BN747 : DL021 your viewpoint relies heavily on US intervention. My take on that is the US has abandoned it's old obligations that were the mission of the 7th
26 FDXMECH : >>>The US GDP is not shrinking. Its just not growing at the same rate as China's (3% vs 10%).
27 Jaysit : I wonder what country is fueling China's GDP? I'd say the whole world is. Its not only Americans who like cheap tonka trucks and sneakers. Chinese con
28 Stlgph : To be a superpower a country must not only have capability -but- will and intent. America’s hegemony and ideology as the premiere superpower is chal
29 Russophile : If you really think that losing a war and escaping to an island (along with gold reserves which belong to several hundred million people) and then 'e
30 Post contains links and images Slider : China is an amazing story: they presently have something like 70% of the world's construction cranes, are gobbling up oil and other resources like cra
31 DL021 : BN747...You are correct that the PRC would definitely have an easier time without US intervention. But remember back a year or so ago when a reporter
32 L410Turbolet : Enslaving? You sound like they teleported you from 1950s. What makes you think they should ask in Bejing what is deemed as "sufficient" basis for sel
33 Jaysit : China may be the first nation to put a man on the moon but can't get clean drinking water to its own citizens. That's an unacceptable position. Perhap
34 Post contains images Slider : Bingo....and that's where I get irritated over any faulty comparison to the US Civil War and states that seceded. Big difference: Communism and funda
35 Post contains images Russophile : Go read what the KMT did to the local population after escaping to Taiwan. And there we have it. Break all the laws you like. It's all acceptable, so
36 Tobi3334 : What is with the chinese airline industry? Can anyone give a short outline about the existing airlines (size, hubs ...)? Thanks, Tobi
37 L-188 : Possibly, especially if you factor in the United States Treaty obligations to defend Taiwan. There are probably more then a couple of US SSN's patrol
38 DL021 : just though of it myself, and it seemed appropos. Thanks russophile.....L410 has lived under a communist regime and probably has more experience with
39 L.1011 : I am convinced that the PRC is not and never will be a superpower. It is not clear how they will fall, but they will. For the sake of the 1.3 billion
40 Pope : Being able to invade Taiwan does not make China a superpower. I would argue that in order to be a superpower, you must be able to project force over a
41 Russophile : I think he was around 10 when the communists lost power in Czechoslovakia (correct me if I am wrong L410). I hardly call that 'living' under a commun
42 DL021 : My mother was living in France during the war from the time she was 4 until she was 10 and she has vivid recollections, as well as the insight from so
43 L-188 : You know, now that I think about it, I don't see a lot of users from the PRC here, at least not num-nuts decided to stunt fly his fighter into that E
44 STLGph : Brush up on your geography a bit. Taiwan is 100 miles off the coast of China. If babies can float from Havana to Miami on a tire, the Chinese could r
45 STLGph : I meant to reference maritime and warfare law. Sorry for leaving that part out.
46 STLGph : Also, one more thing. China has been acquiring warships, boats, guns, weapons, missles, rockets, planes, submarines, etc. from Russia.
47 L-188 : And England was what 70 miles from France? In either case a Chinese fighter is going to have a 200 mile minimum trip. that probably isn't a major con
48 STLGph : China doesn't have the best access to oil supplies but in part that is part of what they'd really like out of Taiwan. But of course, in a government l
49 DL021 : You do not take into account the fact that PRC airbases are out of reach of ROC rocketry and artillery (as close as Quemoy Islands a few miles offsho
50 STLGph : Not to sound like I'm coming off as a jerk but just two easy responses to what you brought up. All they need is 101 miles. It's a communist government
51 KYIPpilot : I definately think they will be. And to the people who say they must be stopped, and that they will fail, why should they be stopped; when we in the U
52 BN747 : That's been suspected for quite a while and I for one believe it true. However, one thing you can bet your life on... although China has more nukes,
53 L-188 : Wanna bet? Have you seen China's human rights record particularly with other sovergien nations they have invaded........see Tibet. One of the few thi
54 BN747 : Sure there's going to some bloodshed... but Taiwan will be spared the ruthlessness of Tibet because of it's value... what value does Tibet have? Econo
55 DL021 : Assuming that the calculations you mention below are not taken into consideration. Yes, they have plenty of mines. They can make more, but they have
56 Slider : You cannot make any intellectual comparison to our quest for freedom when the colonists left England for America and the transition China is presentl
57 DL021 : I understand where you are coming from and might think the same as you except for the following items..... 1. China is going through their own indust
58 Arrow : "Besides, our Industrial Revolution also ushered in a new era in terms of regulation, labor unions, etc, all of which were needed at the time. China r
59 StarAC17 : They have a very good chance at being one though if they can take care of some of their internal problems such as population growth which is what the
60 Slider : Good posts, both DL and Arrow. I take a harder line against Communism, only because I haven't so readily forgotten the twisted evil shit China's pull
61 DL021 : Now, that scares me...do you really think the PRC will remain in one piece as reforms and freedoms expand? The only way I see them being able to main
62 Logan22L : My girlfriend spent nearly a year in China a couple of years ago, and apparently their new-found love of capitalism is running rampant over there. So,
63 BN747 : Good point Logan, The troops will, perhaps a few radical students, but the people will not... I'll explain below... That tank commander who would not
64 Post contains images Kilavoud : What is : superpower ? Business, money, economy, military, getting everything you want very quick ? No, all this is mere underpower. Superpower is dif
65 DL021 : The field army they brought in from out of town had little problem firing on the crowds. There were differences between the two units and the I think
66 BN747 : Well you're right on point with political implications and potential outcome with massive losses. But if you understand the way the chinese think, you
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