Texan From New Zealand, joined Dec 2003, 4206 posts, RR: 53 Reply 3, posted (7 years 9 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 1048 times:
Pressure just dropped more, down to 914 mb, which makes it stronger than Andrew and Katrina. Hopefully it'll weaken some, but NOAA is reporting that the pressure is still dropping.
Texan
"I have always imagined that Paradise will be a kind of library."
AeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 19266 posts, RR: 63 Reply 4, posted (7 years 9 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 1044 times:
Quoting NUair (Reply 1): Hopfully it won't become any stronger..
Katrina took 4 1/2 days to go from TS to Cat 5 (but made landfall between the two). Rita took about 30 hours to do the same, and hasn't peaked yet--one of the fastest accelerations in history.
PROSA From United States of America, joined Oct 2001, 5440 posts, RR: 5 Reply 7, posted (7 years 9 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 981 times:
Quoting PPVRA (Reply 6): Are the waters there still warm? You'd think Katrina cooled things pretty well...
Forecasts a couple of days ago said that cooler waters stirred up by Katrina would prevent Rita from strengthening beyond Category 3 or possibly a weak 4. Obviously, the forecasts were wrong.
"Let me think about it" = the coward's way of saying "no"
EA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 12595 posts, RR: 64 Reply 8, posted (7 years 9 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 976 times:
Max sustained winds of 165mph and RISING. This is going to get ugly.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
TPASXM787 From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 1730 posts, RR: 22 Reply 9, posted (7 years 9 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 960 times:
I haven't seen the models but accounts have it coming ashore as a 3.
I'm guessing there are some upper level winds that are going to shear it and weaken the storm.
Ouboy79 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 4055 posts, RR: 23 Reply 10, posted (7 years 9 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 959 times:
Quoting PROSA (Reply 7): Forecasts a couple of days ago said that cooler waters stirred up by Katrina would prevent Rita from strengthening beyond Category 3 or possibly a weak 4. Obviously, the forecasts were wrong.
I believe Rita has stayed on the southern edge of the cooler waters from Katrina...I'll have to try to find the graphic that shows it best.
Forecast models that were posted on another board:
Any opinion/comment posted is that of my own and not that of Southwest Airlines Co.
Mexicana757 From United States of America, joined Apr 2001, 2961 posts, RR: 30 Reply 11, posted (7 years 9 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 952 times:
Terrible... I hope this hurricane doesn't cause as much damage like Katrina did.
N670UW From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1595 posts, RR: 8 Reply 12, posted (7 years 9 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 951 times:
Quoting PPVRA (Reply 6): Are the waters there still warm? You'd think Katrina cooled things pretty well...
The waters of the central Gulf of Mexico are very warm, thus Rita should maintain her strength or possibly even strengthen further. However, the waters are cooler over the western Gulf, so it's highly unlikely Rita will make landfall as a Category 5 (not to mention eyewall replacement cycles that will occur).
LTBEWR From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 12365 posts, RR: 12 Reply 13, posted (7 years 9 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 922 times:
Even if it drops to a 4 or strong 3, you still have to realize this storm will be bad, especially for all of the storm surge, flooding inland, and potential damage to the shipping, chemical and refining industry heavy in the Houston/Galveston area. Then there will be the damage and disruptions as to offshore oil and natural gas platforms. We better all start praying hard for the best and least harmful outcome.
EA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 12595 posts, RR: 64 Reply 14, posted (7 years 9 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 910 times:
Quoting N670UW (Reply 12): The waters of the central Gulf of Mexico are very warm, thus Rita should maintain her strength or possibly even strengthen further. However, the waters are cooler over the western Gulf
According to these buoy readings, the water temperature is consistent from Rita's current location through to the Gulf coast of Texas:
Brick From United States of America, joined Aug 1999, 1571 posts, RR: 8 Reply 15, posted (7 years 9 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 904 times:
It is not likely to hit land as a category 5. Rita is already near it's peak and hurricanes of this strength don't stay category 5 for very long. It looks likely that it will be a category 3 during landfall...
From the NHC:
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005
AND YET ANOTHER CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE THIS SEASON. DATA FROM BOTH
NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT
PRESSURE DROP TODAY AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 145 KNOTS. THIS IS
BASED ON A 700 MB WIND OF 161 KNOTS RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR
FORCE PLANE AND A RECALIBRATED SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 146 KNOTS.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNANIMOUSLY 140 KNOTS FROM ALL
AGENCIES. BECAUSE RITA WILL BE CROSSING AN AREA OF HIGH HEAT
CONTENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE
HURRICANE WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...THE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AND THE INTENSITY CHANGES WILL BE CONTROLLED
MAINLY BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND DECREASING HEAT CONTENT.
SOME WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BUT RITA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN AND RITA IS MOVING
WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
HAS BEEN FORCING RITA WESTWARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
CORE OF RITA IS BASICALLY MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST AND THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO EXPAND
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALREADY EXTEND ABOUT 150 N MI IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BECAUSE ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF THE WIND
FIELD IS ANTICIPATED...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
N670UW From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 1595 posts, RR: 8 Reply 16, posted (7 years 9 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 886 times:
Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 14): According to these buoy readings, the water temperature is consistent from Rita's current location through to the Gulf coast of Texas:
I didn't check specific sea surface temperatures, just going on the NHC's 5 pm discussion:
BECAUSE RITA WILL BE CROSSING AN AREA OF HIGH HEAT
CONTENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE
HURRICANE WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...THE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AND THE INTENSITY CHANGES WILL BE CONTROLLED
MAINLY BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND DECREASING HEAT CONTENT.
11Bravo From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 1648 posts, RR: 11 Reply 17, posted (7 years 9 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 877 times:
The most recent track from NHC has moved about 50-60 miles to the east. We are still several days out here, but any additional movement to the east could mean a direct hit on Galveston and Houston. I hope the track moves back west and Rita makes landfall halfway between Corpus Christi and Galveston or we could see some spectacular damage in the Houston area. The windfield from this storm is huge:
Mika From Sweden, joined Jul 2000, 2788 posts, RR: 4 Reply 18, posted (7 years 9 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 858 times:
What's up with all these hurricanes in the US lately? I have seen strong storms in Florida before but this seems like something else..first Katrina and now this thing is coming in.
Let's hope for the best, that it reaches land at a scarsely populated place and that it won't be strong.
Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 10 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts Wave Height (WVHT): 21.7 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 16 sec
Average Period (APD): 9.8 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR): ESE ( 111 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.75 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 84.6 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.9 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 79.9 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 98.1 °F
Any opinion/comment posted is that of my own and not that of Southwest Airlines Co.
Brick From United States of America, joined Aug 1999, 1571 posts, RR: 8 Reply 20, posted (7 years 9 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 833 times:
Quoting Mika (Reply 18): What's up with all these hurricanes in the US lately? I have seen strong storms in Florida before but this seems like something else..first Katrina and now this thing is coming in.
Hurricane seasons vary from year to year, even decade to decade. This is just an active season, that's all. Some years nothing happens in the gulf...
Ouboy79 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 4055 posts, RR: 23 Reply 21, posted (7 years 9 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 817 times:
Quoting Mika (Reply 18): What's up with all these hurricanes in the US lately? I have seen strong storms in Florida before but this seems like something else..first Katrina and now this thing is coming in.
From what most people have said, we are in a typical cycle where we will see several years or decades of increase tropical activity and then it will be followed by an equal number of slow seasons. Mom Nature is all about the law of averages. Every extreme has to be balanced out some how. This extreme activity will be balanced out in the end.
Any opinion/comment posted is that of my own and not that of Southwest Airlines Co.
KFLLCFII From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3263 posts, RR: 33 Reply 22, posted (7 years 9 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 806 times:
Quoting Texan (Reply 3): Pressure just dropped more, down to 914 mb, which makes it stronger than Andrew and Katrina.
You're half right. Andrew did only reach a minimum central pressure of 922 mb (higher than Rita), however Katrina went all the way down to 902 mb on the 8/28 4:00PM CDT advisory. Needless to say, Rita still has the potential to surpass this
"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
QuestAir From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 366 posts, RR: 0 Reply 24, posted (7 years 9 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 802 times:
Quoting Ouboy79 (Reply 21): This extreme activity will be balanced out in the end.
I certainly hope you're right, Ouboy79. I've seen those NOVA TV specials in school about hurricanes and global warming and such, so I hope this is just temporary...
'Do we carry rich people on our flights? Yes, I flew on one this morning and I�m very rich.' - Michael O'Leary
25 Ouboy79: Well keep in mind, Earth may take 10-20 years to start the other side of the balancing effect...so we have a long way to go. Rita down to 904 MB...5t
26 Mika: Pardon my ignorance but how far (in terms of time) is she from the mainland at this point? Surely one would believe that whatever size she gets out at
27 SATX: Global warming doesn't exist (in America).
28 Blackbird1331: The storm is about 650 miles from Texas moving at about 7miles per hour. Do the math, please.
29 NoUFO: According to the weather forecast, Rita will make landfall on Saturday - probably as a Cat 3 or maybe Cat 4 storm. So far, Rita's eye has missed land
30 AeroWesty: Landfall sometime late Friday/early Saturday Central time (-7 from CET).
31 Ouboy79: 4PM CDT advisory had it 600 miles ESE of Galveston moving at 13 mph. So we are looking at 46 hours from landfall, which is going to probably come up
32 NWA742: In AUS we're getting ready for this, because either way it looks like we'll get a real taste of this storm. I've got basic supplies in case we lose el
33 NoUFO: Anyway: Good luck. The message you were about to post is too short and probably not of any higher value ...
34 Airlinelover: please delete.. meant to have a new thread[Edited 2005-09-22 01:28:41]
35 KFLLCFII: As of 6:50 PM CDT, pressure is now 898 mb, third-most intense ever in the Atlantic Basin. Wow.
37 Tbar220: Imagine being the pilot that has to measure those winds. I bet its surreal... Ouboy, You have some excellent sources for those websites. What are you
38 TPASXM787: this coming from someone who asked if there is a cat 6 hurricane? read the saffir-simpson scale please
39 Redngold: Wondering if this storm can make a run against the most intense hurricanes of the Pacific Ocean...
40 BaylorAirBear: Well, I'm beginning my evacuation now. Everyone I know is getting the hell out of Waco. We don't want to take any chances. I've already signed up for
41 Texan: We're looking at holding everything down here in Dallas, too. DAL is out of hangar space and is running short on ramp space. It's gonna be a sticky si
42 Airlinerfreak: Did I hear this right on the news...gusts of 215 miles an hour? Thats almost enough to whipe Texas off the map.....
44 Bo__einG: yeah, lol you will need your 10sec loopy flicks of porn as you will be away for quite sometime. This Rita is immense. I think despite knowing a whole
45 Flydubai: She's weakening... She probably hit land at cat 4 Should be OK. flydubai
46 AeroWesty: Could still have major damage, and it's moving northeasterly now. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml Category Four Hurricane: Winds 131-155 mph
47 Flydubai: Of course, but lets hope she weakens further to a cat 3 which surely would be sustainable. She doesn't seem to be moving that much and it looks like
48 Gkirk: Remember Katrina was a Cat 4 when she hit New Orleans.
49 AeroWesty: The latest models are showing that Rita will stall once it hits land, dropping anywhere from 1-2 feet of rain where it stalls before moving on.
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