Sponsor Message:
Aviation Technical / Operations Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
What Will Happen To When World Oil Supply Runs Out  
User currently offlinePavlin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (8 years 5 months 4 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 4767 times:

What will be used instead of kerosene in about 50 or more years from now?
I heard something involving Hydrogen but I don't believe it will work.
The flight range would drop significantly because H2 takes a lot of volume.
Do you have any ideas? Biokerosene?

21 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineJetlagged From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2005, 2532 posts, RR: 24
Reply 1, posted (8 years 5 months 4 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 4739 times:

I think they were looking at liquid hydrogen as an alternative. The problem would be to keep it liquid!

[Edited 2005-10-23 01:26:07]


The glass isn't half empty, or half full, it's twice as big as it needs to be.
User currently offlineFLY2HMO From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (8 years 5 months 4 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 4728 times:

Quoting Jetlagged (Reply 1):
The problem would be to keep it liquid!

....And to keep the rest of the passengers and plane from freezing  fever 

Whatever the fuel will be, it's going to have to be compatible with any airliners that exist right now, and probably will have to involve some kind of combustion, and be relatively efficient and cheap and clean and good smelling etc..

From my point of view, if the next fuel to be used doesn't meet those requirements, THEN the aviation industry will be screwed  faint 


User currently offline474218 From United States of America, joined Oct 2005, 6340 posts, RR: 9
Reply 3, posted (8 years 5 months 4 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 4717 times:

What makes you think the worlds supply of oil will ever run out. Thirty years ago they were saying we had thirty years of oil left, "we must conserve, we must find new sources of energy." Will thirty years later, we still have thirty years of oil left so "we must conserve, we must find new sources of energy." Don't worry we will find an alternative when one is required.

User currently offlineAerlingus330 From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2004, 834 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (8 years 5 months 4 weeks 18 hours ago) and read 4709 times:

Quoting 474218 (Reply 3):
What makes you think the worlds supply of oil will ever run out.

We dont know when...but It definatly will run out someday, because it is a fossil fuel.

AerLingus330



Aer Lingus Airbus A330-300
User currently offline3201 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (8 years 5 months 4 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 4661 times:

Lots of people continue to look very seriously at hydrogen. They'll solve the infrastructure issues, just like they did with the switch from avgas to kerosene. Hydrogen will likely come into play whether oil ever runs out or not.

User currently offlineHAWK21M From India, joined Jan 2001, 31568 posts, RR: 57
Reply 6, posted (8 years 5 months 4 weeks 10 hours ago) and read 4606 times:

With Hydrogen.Safety Issues would be a concern.
regds
MEL



Think of the brighter side!
User currently offlineKaddyuk From Wallis and Futuna, joined Nov 2001, 4126 posts, RR: 26
Reply 7, posted (8 years 5 months 4 weeks 9 hours ago) and read 4577 times:

Currently, an oil field is concidered "depleted" when it reaches 60% of its original capacity... How long have we been mining for oil?
Oil wont be running out within the next 7 or 8 decades...

As a replacement... thats difficult... Nuclear is the only realistic option however shielding is the hardest part. If a lightweight nuclear shielding can be developed then nuclear power is the direction to follow...



Whoever said "laughter is the best medicine" never had Gonorrhea
User currently offlinePavlin From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (8 years 5 months 4 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 4569 times:

Nuclear power doesn't seem realistic.
And even if we use liquid (I had that in mind when I posted topic) hydrogen planes will still have 3x less range than today even if they will have engine with 80% efficiency. I just can't imagine those big H2 tanks on an airplane


User currently offlineNZ1 From New Zealand, joined May 2004, 2237 posts, RR: 26
Reply 9, posted (8 years 5 months 4 weeks 8 hours ago) and read 4565 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
FORUM MODERATOR

Don't be fooled, there is a s**tload of oil out there. New Zealand has masses and masses of oil reserves, but hasn't yet got anyone in to drill for it, due to being in a remote location. Saying we are running out of oil is scaremongering by Bush and co, to keep the price high. Remember Bush Snr has his fingers ina lot of 'oil' pies doesn't he.

NZ1


User currently offlineCosmicCruiser From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 2254 posts, RR: 16
Reply 10, posted (8 years 5 months 4 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 4544 times:

Quoting NZ1 (Reply 9):
Saying we are running out of oil is scaremongering by Bush and co, to keep the price high. Remember Bush Snr has his fingers ina lot of 'oil' pies doesn't he.

What a crock!! I've never heard Bush say we're running out of oil. If you want to know about "fingers in the big oil pies" you might be surprised to know that Al Gore Sr. was in the back pocket of Cont. Oil for decades and left Al Jr. plenty of their stock when he died.
In fact there are vast untapped fields here in the mid-far west as well as Alaska but they're not being drilled because the environmentalist groups have prevented it.


User currently offlineTheSonntag From Germany, joined Jun 2005, 3396 posts, RR: 29
Reply 11, posted (8 years 5 months 4 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 4543 times:

An interesting alternative will be Sunfuel/Synfuel and hydration of coal. This process has been done sucessfully by Germany during WW2, so you could, in theory, produce kerosene out of coal. I know that this is not really a good alternative, as it is not sustainable either, but at least it is possible.

Sunfuel is fuel produced in a similiar way which can also be useful. So there are alternatives. As oil prices rise, a) more expensive oil fields become lucrative b) these alternatives become economically feasible and c) more efficient aircraft are developed. Combine these factors and you will have oil for many years to come.


User currently offlineKeta From Germany, joined Mar 2005, 448 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (8 years 5 months 4 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 4511 times:

Quoting 474218 (Reply 3):
What makes you think the worlds supply of oil will ever run out

Are you serious? Oil will run out, it's just a matter of time.

Quoting Kaddyuk (Reply 7):
As a replacement... thats difficult... Nuclear is the only realistic option however shielding is the hardest part. If a lightweight nuclear shielding can be developed then nuclear power is the direction to follow...

It's a possibility, but I see it difficult. There was a nice discussion about that a while ago:

The Nuclear/Solar Airliner, Can It Be Done? (by UAL747 Jul 6 2005 in Tech Ops)


From my point of view, it's a serious debate. It's possible that we still have many years until oil runs out, but it's better if we get somehow alarmed, it's the only way we can get a solution. Otherwise it will be late and we'll have to find a quick alternative. Even if oil lasts forever, it would be great if we find another way of getting energy, because the model of today is painful, for the world and for us.

In transportation, the airplane industry is, I think, the worst situated. Cars, trucks, trains and ships can easily switch to electricity (given electricity is produced from a source other than oil, for example nuclear), but airplanes have a problem and I think we should be a little worried, or at least aware of the problem.

Right now the more feasible alternative would be, I think, hydrogen or biofuels.



Where there's a will, there's a way
User currently offlineGary2880 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (8 years 5 months 3 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 4487 times:

each passenger will have to bring on 50 AA Duracels...

or D size for long haul...


User currently offlineHAWK21M From India, joined Jan 2001, 31568 posts, RR: 57
Reply 14, posted (8 years 5 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 4415 times:

Quoting NZ1 (Reply 9):
New Zealand has masses and masses of oil reserves, but hasn't yet got anyone in to drill for it, due to being in a remote location.

Im Surprised.If the Availability is present.Why no effort to Extract it.

Glider 1
When Oil is Exhausted.Hand Gliders sale should rise then Smile
regds
MEL



Think of the brighter side!
User currently offlineZKSUJ From New Zealand, joined May 2004, 7073 posts, RR: 12
Reply 15, posted (8 years 5 months 3 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 4386 times:

Better start buying canoes eh  Wink Big grin

User currently offlineHAWK21M From India, joined Jan 2001, 31568 posts, RR: 57
Reply 16, posted (8 years 5 months 3 weeks 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 4356 times:

Quoting ZKSUJ (Reply 15):
Better start buying canoes eh

Need Water  Smile

What is the ranking of the Oil producing Countries,in terms of production & in terms of ATF/Gasoline.
regds
MEL



Think of the brighter side!
User currently offlinePrebennorholm From Denmark, joined Mar 2000, 6289 posts, RR: 54
Reply 17, posted (8 years 5 months 3 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 4305 times:

Quoting Gary2880 (Reply 13):
each passenger will have to bring on 50 AA Duracels...

That seems like a brilliant idea. So I just made some rough math to calculate the correct number of AA Duracells. Not all that rough - the following numbers are correct within +/-20%.

We assume a 1,000 miles flight on a Boeing 737-800 or Airbus 320 with 150 pax lasting two hours.

Each passenger will have to carry not 50, but one million AA Duracells. That will be five tonnes of Duracells per passenger.

There is one slight problem: The plane will exceed the max take-off weight by some 720 tonnes.

I don't know the price of a Duracell AA, but let's assume 50 cent. That will make the "fuel" price $500,000 per pax one way, a million dollars on a return ticket.

Milage: The plane will cover a distance of 0.84 inch or 21 mm per Duracell AA, or 10.5 feet per passenger.

Kerosene will be some $50 one way per pax. So will will reach a breakeven point when oil has become ten thousand times more expensive. That will be the day when our US friends pay $20,000 for one gallon gas. Then we only have to solve the weight problem.



Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs, Preben Norholm
User currently offlineFaroeFlyer From Faroe Islands, joined Aug 2005, 87 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (8 years 5 months 3 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 4260 times:

Anyways, I can assure you guys, OIL WILL NEVER RUN OUT. Never.

Over time we will see a drop in oil production since it will be harder to find. The price will go up and up and up until finally it just won't be worth the money anymore. No will be able to afford it. The last oil will never see the surface.



Cast your dancing spell my way...
User currently offlineHAWK21M From India, joined Jan 2001, 31568 posts, RR: 57
Reply 19, posted (8 years 5 months 3 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 4248 times:

Quoting Prebennorholm (Reply 17):
There is one slight problem: The plane will exceed the max take-off weight by some 720 tonnes.

Amazing!.
Solution:- Find more Oil.
regds
MEL



Think of the brighter side!
User currently offlineWingscrubber From UK - England, joined Sep 2001, 845 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (8 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 4144 times:

The solution would be Cryoplanes! That is, a plane which has Cryogenic (very cold) fuel. The russian a/c manufacturer Tupolev are to date the only company to have built and flown a prototype Cryoplane, the Tu-155, which is fuelled by LNG (Liquid natural gas), Airbus have also been considering a Liquid Hydrogen concept...

Check this out-
http://www.tupolev.ru/English/Show.asp?SectionID=82&Page=1

If oil dissapears, the world will still cope, the only difference is the oil tycoons *cough*georgebush*cough* who are raping our wallets will become LNG/Hydrogen tycoons.



Resident TechOps Troll
User currently offlineSunriseValley From Canada, joined Jul 2004, 4611 posts, RR: 5
Reply 21, posted (8 years 5 months 3 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 4151 times:

Quoting NZ1 (Reply 9):
Don't be fooled, there is a s**tload of oil out there. New Zealand has masses and masses of oil reserves, but hasn't yet got anyone in to drill for it, due to being in a remote location


And this is so for many other regions of the world. If is all about what the market will be willing to pay for it.
The Canadian tar sands has vast resources but not at $25 a barrel. If oil was at about a stable $70 a barrel all the NZ oil would be economical to extract, and this goes for many regions in the world.


Top Of Page
Forum Index

Reply To This Topic What Will Happen To When World Oil Supply Runs Out
Username:
No username? Sign up now!
Password: 


Forgot Password? Be reminded.
Remember me on this computer (uses cookies)
  • Tech/Ops related posts only!
  • Not Tech/Ops related? Use the other forums
  • No adverts of any kind. This includes web pages.
  • No hostile language or criticizing of others.
  • Do not post copyright protected material.
  • Use relevant and describing topics.
  • Check if your post already been discussed.
  • Check your spelling!
  • DETAILED RULES
Add Images Add SmiliesPosting Help

Please check your spelling (press "Check Spelling" above)


Similar topics:More similar topics...
What Ever Happed To The CFM XX posted Sat Aug 26 2006 04:55:13 by 747400sp
What Was Going To Power The Twin Engine 727? posted Fri May 26 2006 18:29:04 by 747400sp
What Will The Next Cessna Piston Be? posted Sat Nov 5 2005 12:25:11 by KBFIspotter
What Will Happen In The Toilet posted Sun Aug 28 2005 21:56:21 by GBan
What Would Happen If you opened a door in flight posted Sun Feb 29 2004 22:22:15 by Toxicmegacolon
What Would Happen On A Plane If Every Jumped at Same time posted Tue Sep 16 2003 09:56:52 by QANTAS747-438
How To Use A World Aeronautical Chart? posted Sun Aug 10 2003 02:35:24 by KLM672
What Really Happened To F-BPJK - The Facts posted Thu Jul 10 2003 09:40:41 by UTA_flyinghigh
What Would Happen? posted Fri Jul 5 2002 20:36:59 by Roadrunner165
What Does 'Crcle To Land Mean'? posted Sun Sep 16 2001 04:31:46 by Ajaaron

Sponsor Message:
Printer friendly format