BAfan From United Kingdom, joined May 2008, 189 posts, RR: 0 Posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 4450 times:
It has been mentioned a few times to me recently that there will be a pilot shortage in the future as many older pilot's retire and there is not enough people training to cope with the expect growth in demand.
Clearly, the main barrier to entry into this career field is the high cost of training which I am guessing averages around £60,000.
Therefore I am asking whether it is likely that we will see airlines beginning to open up sponsorship/cadet training programmes, where the airline pays for the training. I know that many airlines used to operate schemes like this in the past.
I know there are some programmes already running, but from what I can gather, the majority of these require the applicant to already have some flying experience.
If we don't see such programmes, what will be the solution to this problem?
swa4life From United States of America, joined Jul 2009, 369 posts, RR: 1 Reply 1, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 4444 times:
There will be no shortage,.. In fact it's quite the opposite..
RJ111 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 2, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 4439 times:
Quoting BAfan (Thread starter): It has been mentioned a few times to me recently that there will be a pilot shortage in the future as many older pilot's retire
lightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 10688 posts, RR: 100 Reply 3, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 4372 times:
Quoting swa4life (Reply 1): There will be no shortage,.. In fact it's quite the opposite..
Sad but true. We just left the greatest boom of our lifetime. Those years were as good as it gets.
Quoting BAfan (Thread starter): Therefore I am asking whether it is likely that we will see airlines beginning to open up sponsorship/cadet training programmes, where the airline pays for the training. I know that many airlines used to operate schemes like this in the past.
Do you see the business jet providers paying a living wage for co-pilots? Heck, most can still charge! That alone should let you (BAFan) how much slack there is in available pilots.
Av8rPHX From United States of America, joined Mar 2003, 713 posts, RR: 9 Reply 4, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 4367 times:
There are several hundreds of qualified pilots out of jobs right now, there is no shortage.
DashTrash From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 1314 posts, RR: 4 Reply 5, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 4319 times:
Things may get tight after 2012 when retirements start again, but in the meantime jobs are hard to come by. Even then, much of the experience that's on the street may have decided to start over in other professions and not return to the cockpit.
BAfan From United Kingdom, joined May 2008, 189 posts, RR: 0 Reply 6, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 4296 times:
I was referring to a shortage in the medium to long term, not in today's current climate when thousands of pilots have been let go due to the poor economic climate.
I know there are still plenty of guys and girls looking for work, I fly with new crew all the time!
DualQual From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 641 posts, RR: 1 Reply 7, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 4185 times:
Quoting BAfan (Reply 6): I was referring to a shortage in the medium to long term, not in today's current climate when thousands of pilots have been let go due to the poor economic climate.
There has been an impending pilot shortage since Orville and Wilbur first hit the beach in 1903. Simply put, everyone talks about some looming pilot shortage but there is no such thing. The existence of Nessie and Atlantis is far more likely than any looming pilot shortage.
silentbob From Vatican City, joined Aug 2006, 1639 posts, RR: 1 Reply 8, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 4161 times:
Quoting DualQual (Reply 7): There has been an impending pilot shortage since Orville and Wilbur first hit the beach in 1903. Simply put, everyone talks about some looming pilot shortage but there is no such thing. The existence of Nessie and Atlantis is far more likely than any looming pilot shortage.
Just before the age 65 law was implemented, there was a shortage at the regional level. And we are only a couple years from it starting all over again. Look at the ages of major airline pilots in the US and you will see that some will turn over a majority of their pilot ranks in the next decade.
Quoting DashTrash (Reply 5): Even then, much of the experience that's on the street may have decided to start over in other professions and not return to the cockpit.
m11stephen From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 1206 posts, RR: 1 Reply 9, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 4028 times:
There are over 7000 furloughed pilots in the US right now. There is no shortage...
My opinions, statements, etc. are my own and do not have any association with those of any employer.
flymia From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 6297 posts, RR: 6 Reply 10, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 3888 times:
Quoting BAfan (Thread starter): It has been mentioned a few times to me recently that there will be a pilot shortage in the future as many older pilot's retire and there is not enough people training to cope with the expect growth in demand.
I have heard about a pilot shortage since 2002 and there is always one coming up. Every pilot training school will tell you this no matter what the case is.
Clearly, the main barrier to entry into this career field is the high cost of training which I am guessing averages around £60,000.
If you love to fly and do not want to join the military then go for it, you could probably do it cheaper at a local FBO but besides for military there is no other way. I reccomend get your PPL first make sure you really love it.
Quoting Av8rPHX (Reply 4): several hundreds of qualified pilots
Hundred? More like Thousands.
"It was just four of us on the flight deck, trying to do our job" (Captain Al Haynes)
ZKSUJ From New Zealand, joined May 2004, 6937 posts, RR: 10 Reply 11, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 3728 times:
Pilot shortage seems to be a way of flying schools tricking students to do their courses. Truth is its a long hard road to be in the frame to even get an interview...
But in saying that, there are the lucky few out there who get in and bypass the hard yards due to their country of birth etc etc...
affirmative From France, joined Jul 2009, 308 posts, RR: 0 Reply 12, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 3505 times:
This is a debate that's been going for a while now and all depends on who you ask. Of course the americans don't agree with there being a shortage because of the furloughing of pilots in the US but there is a bigger picture that spans outside the americas.
First; After raising the age to 65 the airlines got some breathing room meaning that a lot of captains could stay on for at least another 5 years. In some countries they had a rule saying that the F/O had to be below 40 for captains to fly after their 60th birthday. This also became a problem with an aging pilot base and now that rule changed to below 60 in most countries.
Second; We can se today that ALL the ME carriers EK, EY and QR, to name the big ones, are in dire need of pilots. They will have to change policy to be able to recruit more quite soon.
Third; The business is turning back up, number of passengers are increasing after the downturn and volcanos and whatnot. But most Airlines are in pretty bad shape and it will take some time before they start hiring again. And they are more wary these days for a new downturn so they will be extremely careful.
Fourth; Because of the downturn the downscaling of pilot education has been massive. This in turn means that when airlines will start looking for new pilots there will not be enough being trained either.
So, there are things that point to the fact that there will be a shortage. If you take my first point for example the amount of pilots born in the babyboom 1940s and 1950s are at close to 30% in many of the bigger companies which is becoming a bigger problem every day. People will have to retire and someone will have to take their seat. This coupled with a rise in passenger traffic will be reason to hire more pilots. Probably less so in the US but more in China, Middle East and rest of Asia.
atct From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 2037 posts, RR: 40 Reply 13, posted (2 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 3410 times:
Quoting affirmative (Reply 12): We can se today that ALL the ME carriers EK, EY and QR, to name the big ones, are in dire need of pilots.
Raise the pay and benefits...and not living in the Middle East...and many of us would fly there. (Treating crews like shit doesnt help their HR departments that much as well...) Before I get flamed, I have many friends and former colleagues at Emirates, FlyDubai, Jet Airways, Kingfisher etc.
ATCT
Real pilots fly planes that take and measure oil in gallons
MrChips From Canada, joined Mar 2005, 911 posts, RR: 0 Reply 14, posted (2 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 3329 times:
Quoting ZKSUJ (Reply 11): Pilot shortage seems to be a way of flying schools tricking students to do their courses.
In North America (mostly the US), the "pilot shortage" touted a few years ago feels like a fabrication by the regional airlines and the big, commercial "license mill" flying schools. How can you keep labour cost down? By having a readily available pool of pilots who are more than willing (desperate, even) to fly for criminally low pay, which is in turn justified by the size of the labour pool chasing the jobs that are available.
saab2000 From Switzerland, joined Jun 2001, 1605 posts, RR: 12 Reply 15, posted (2 years 10 months 2 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 3265 times:
Quoting m11stephen (Reply 9): There are over 7000 furloughed pilots in the US right now. There is no shortage...
This number does not tell the whole truth. Let's use AA as an example. They have about 2000 on furlough. They will be doing well if they get 25% of those to return. Many have found new jobs and will never return to AA. Why should they if they are now medium seniority captains at JetBlue? Same with the furloughed Midwest guys who have found work at AirTran or JetBlue. But their numbers are still out there as furloughed.
When I started working at my current carrier I talked with many United pilots who said that United wouldn't hire for 10+ years due to the high numbers of furloughed pilots. Suddenly they started recalling and for every 3 who got the return call, only 1 would actually return.
I predict that unless there is a huge reduction in the number of RJs, there will be a 'tightening' of the market for pilots at the RJ level, starting in about 2 years. There is already a trickle of hiring at a number of companies like JetBlue, Delta, AirTran, Virgin America, etc. Many airlines like AA and FedEx are very, very top heavy and will experience attrition in the dozens per month starting in December 2012. So while I don't predict an outright shortage, there will be movement.
413X3 From United States of America, joined Jul 2008, 1983 posts, RR: 0 Reply 16, posted (2 years 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 3187 times:
Quoting Av8rPHX (Reply 4): There are several hundreds of qualified pilots
I would say several thousand! And even more world wide!
stratosphere From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 1614 posts, RR: 3 Reply 17, posted (2 years 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 3153 times:
Well I don't think there will be a shortage of either pilots or mechanics. .. Mechanics? Well they have been outsourcing even to other countries for years as for pilots? There will ALWAYS be pilots who will fly those shiny jets SJS Shiny jet Syndrome for next to nothing. As long as there are people who will do that you will never have a shortage. They can always lower the mins to get who they want if they need to.
cobra27 From Slovenia, joined exactly 12 years ago today! , 989 posts, RR: 0 Reply 18, posted (2 years 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 3110 times:
flyby519 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 852 posts, RR: 0 Reply 19, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 2846 times:
We will see single pilot airliners before we see a real pilot shortage.
YWG From Canada, joined Feb 2001, 1140 posts, RR: 2 Reply 20, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 2813 times:
Quoting cobra27 (Reply 18): Has there really ever been a pilot shortage?
WW2?
There is not and will not be a pilot shortage any time soon. In Canada, there is an over abundance of 200hr CPL wonders roaming around for jobs. I'd say out of 10 CPL 'grads", 1 will get a job. And then, the odds of that job being 100% legitimate, safe, paying reasonably and isn't slave labour is about 30-40%. That being said, those who get jobs via resume are 1 in 100. The other 99 work away on the ground paying their dues. It's a good way to get to know your staff. It weeds out the lazy and moronic people. By the time they reach flight line, you can almost guarantee it's a good individual.
I'm not very experienced with the American side of things. As far as I know, it seems to me that there are too many kids running around with 200hrs and CRJ "training" from the ridiculously priced aero universities. This will continue well into the future no doubt.
flyby519 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 852 posts, RR: 0 Reply 21, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 2726 times:
Quoting YWG (Reply 20): I'm not very experienced with the American side of things. As far as I know, it seems to me that there are too many kids running around with 200hrs and CRJ "training" from the ridiculously priced aero universities. This will continue well into the future no doubt.
Fly2HMO From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 22, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 2696 times:
Quoting BAfan (Thread starter): If we don't see such programmes, what will be the solution to this problem?
Assuming the reduction of shiny-jet-syndrome types of idiots who ruin it for the rest of us, the only way to attract more pilots would be to considerably improve pay and working conditions for starting pilots. It's insulting to having invested over $70k in an aviation education just to be treated as a slave with a starting salary below $30k at almost all regionals, that's food stamp eligible in some cases.
Also, it would help if those schools with zero-to-hero programs that invest more in marketing than in their goddamn fleet would close down, thus eliminating the SJS epidemic.
LAXintl From United States of America, joined May 2000, 22055 posts, RR: 51 Reply 23, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 2662 times:
Quoting Fly2HMO (Reply 22): types of idiots who ruin it for the rest of us
It seems like you have envy of others.
At the end of the day its a matter of supply and demand, and there appears to be enough candidates that will happily work for $30k, or pursue those zero-to-jet jobs.
If you are in this business for money, I suggest you maybe reconsider as seemingly this business at the moment continues to have an endless number of people that will literally fly for food and supply of willing candidates exceeds global piloting jobs.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
cobra27 From Slovenia, joined exactly 12 years ago today! , 989 posts, RR: 0 Reply 24, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 2654 times:
I kind agree with LAXintl. Those guys who earn through hard labour all the money for the cpl ir me and possibly type more than deserve to be the pilots. Those old fags that got all training paid up and nice salary afterwards (to be honest I would complain if I had a pilot job like that) - that is a thing of the past.
The bad thing is probably that a perfectly good pilot can't be a pilot without money for training
If you like money you can go for traffic controller, it is way easier and requiers litteraly no investment.
25 m11stephen: As long as ERAU and the like, and their gullible students who think they will magically end up in the left seat of a A380, are around there will be no
26 413X3: ERAU is just full of kids who have wealthy parents and hand them everything. That's fine as the world has many of them too. My problem is their idea t
27 YWG: I remember way back when I was just getting into aviation, Delta Connection Academy and the likes were very temping. But once you dig a little deeper
28 atct: Amen Not really. Over the past 4 years we've hired a BUNCH of off the street people with no aviation background. Go to a CTI school, graduate, get hi
29 cobra27: True, because flight school themselves depend on your income. And you would get line training arranged for money also.
30 413X3: But if they don't, they end up with the fighter pilot ego at what ever job they are currently in.
31 AKviator: Now wait just a minute.. there are pilots who think they are Gods gift to aviation EVERYWHERE. The wealthy parents bit is probably accurate for the m
33 m11stephen: The new 1500 rule will probably create a pilot shortage...
34 DashTrash: That's how Humpty Diddle stays in business. You can get a better education elsewhere for half the money. An airline hiring board could give half a da
35 m11stephen: I almost fell for it too. Then I went on airlinepilotcentral.com and asked some pilots what they thought about the school and realized what a scam it
36 PGNCS: AKviator...remember what I said about Riddle in the other thread where you asked about the sterotype of an ERAU grad. Well, these gentlemen know of w
37 AKviator: I see, and that ERAU is the best is actually not my opinion (I haven't even started there yet ). Its just whenever I do research on the top flight pr
38 DashTrash: According to whom? Just my opinion, but I think you'd be better served by choosing a school where you can concentrate on a more useful degree, but wh
39 413X3: True but the ones who were military pilots have an ego for a reason. They are much more highly trained and knowledgeable than anyone at ERAU. But wha
41 AKviator: I won't dispute this. Military is definitly the cutting edge.
42 mmedford: As some one who knows several people screwed over by ERAUs flight program... Good Luck... Just keep this thread bookmarked... So you can't say none of
43 DashTrash: I'm not going to look, only because my experience tells me Riddle is no better or worse than any other collegiate flight school out there. You get th
44 DiamondFlyer: No doubt, but as I said about ERAU earlier, it isn't for everyone. I'm not going to pretend to know much about the military, but I'd imagine if you s
45 e38: Quoting DashTrash (Reply 43): "You may find yourself with no choice other than to leave aviation, and having a degree in something other than can be a
46 Fly2HMO: I'm not too sure about that. I have no doubts on their stick-and-rudder skills, but I've talked to more than a few military pilots and I always get t
47 413X3: everything military is just checklist and acronym bound. To quickly train the masses and send them out in one the many postings around the world. Yes
48 N6238P: Why is it that every discussion relating to pilot training always goes back to some form of ERAU vs. the world. Fact of the matter is where ever you g
49 Aaron747: I really don't understand why you would waste your time when you can get the same education elsewhere at 1/3 of the cost. You believe everything you
50 PGNCS: I've done both and there is zero comparison. I am unaware of any more challenging curriculum than military flight school. Training budgets are not wh
51 Aaron747: Didn't mean to mischaracterize anything, that's why I left myself an out in the final sentence I think what I meant to say is that for folks filled t
52 atct: The best pilots come from backwater airports with the most varied training backgrounds. They can fly tailwheel, seaplanes, gliders, glass and REAL gl
53 mmedford: Clint..not everyone is crazy enough as you; to fly a milk crate attached to an engine with wings... But you sir are right, it is a dying breed...[Edit
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Heck, most can still charge! That alone should let you (BAFan) how much slack there is in available pilots. 
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