BAfan From United Kingdom, joined May 2008, 189 posts, RR: 0 Posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 5067 times:
It has been mentioned a few times to me recently that there will be a pilot shortage in the future as many older pilot's retire and there is not enough people training to cope with the expect growth in demand.
Clearly, the main barrier to entry into this career field is the high cost of training which I am guessing averages around £60,000.
Therefore I am asking whether it is likely that we will see airlines beginning to open up sponsorship/cadet training programmes, where the airline pays for the training. I know that many airlines used to operate schemes like this in the past.
I know there are some programmes already running, but from what I can gather, the majority of these require the applicant to already have some flying experience.
If we don't see such programmes, what will be the solution to this problem?
lightsaber From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12981 posts, RR: 100
Reply 3, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 4989 times:
Quoting swa4life (Reply 1): There will be no shortage,.. In fact it's quite the opposite..
Sad but true. We just left the greatest boom of our lifetime. Those years were as good as it gets.
Quoting BAfan (Thread starter): Therefore I am asking whether it is likely that we will see airlines beginning to open up sponsorship/cadet training programmes, where the airline pays for the training. I know that many airlines used to operate schemes like this in the past.
Do you see the business jet providers paying a living wage for co-pilots? Heck, most can still charge! That alone should let you (BAFan) how much slack there is in available pilots.
Societies that achieve a critical mass of ideas achieve self sustaining growth; others stagnate.
DashTrash From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 1522 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 4936 times:
Things may get tight after 2012 when retirements start again, but in the meantime jobs are hard to come by. Even then, much of the experience that's on the street may have decided to start over in other professions and not return to the cockpit.
DualQual From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 763 posts, RR: 1
Reply 7, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 4802 times:
Quoting BAfan (Reply 6): I was referring to a shortage in the medium to long term, not in today's current climate when thousands of pilots have been let go due to the poor economic climate.
There has been an impending pilot shortage since Orville and Wilbur first hit the beach in 1903. Simply put, everyone talks about some looming pilot shortage but there is no such thing. The existence of Nessie and Atlantis is far more likely than any looming pilot shortage.
silentbob From United States of America, joined Aug 2006, 2071 posts, RR: 1
Reply 8, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 4778 times:
Quoting DualQual (Reply 7): There has been an impending pilot shortage since Orville and Wilbur first hit the beach in 1903. Simply put, everyone talks about some looming pilot shortage but there is no such thing. The existence of Nessie and Atlantis is far more likely than any looming pilot shortage.
Just before the age 65 law was implemented, there was a shortage at the regional level. And we are only a couple years from it starting all over again. Look at the ages of major airline pilots in the US and you will see that some will turn over a majority of their pilot ranks in the next decade.
Quoting DashTrash (Reply 5): Even then, much of the experience that's on the street may have decided to start over in other professions and not return to the cockpit.
flymia From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 7140 posts, RR: 9
Reply 10, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 4505 times:
Quoting BAfan (Thread starter): It has been mentioned a few times to me recently that there will be a pilot shortage in the future as many older pilot's retire and there is not enough people training to cope with the expect growth in demand.
I have heard about a pilot shortage since 2002 and there is always one coming up. Every pilot training school will tell you this no matter what the case is.
Clearly, the main barrier to entry into this career field is the high cost of training which I am guessing averages around £60,000.
If you love to fly and do not want to join the military then go for it, you could probably do it cheaper at a local FBO but besides for military there is no other way. I reccomend get your PPL first make sure you really love it.
affirmative From France, joined Jul 2009, 351 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 4122 times:
This is a debate that's been going for a while now and all depends on who you ask. Of course the americans don't agree with there being a shortage because of the furloughing of pilots in the US but there is a bigger picture that spans outside the americas.
First; After raising the age to 65 the airlines got some breathing room meaning that a lot of captains could stay on for at least another 5 years. In some countries they had a rule saying that the F/O had to be below 40 for captains to fly after their 60th birthday. This also became a problem with an aging pilot base and now that rule changed to below 60 in most countries.
Second; We can se today that ALL the ME carriers EK, EY and QR, to name the big ones, are in dire need of pilots. They will have to change policy to be able to recruit more quite soon.
Third; The business is turning back up, number of passengers are increasing after the downturn and volcanos and whatnot. But most Airlines are in pretty bad shape and it will take some time before they start hiring again. And they are more wary these days for a new downturn so they will be extremely careful.
Fourth; Because of the downturn the downscaling of pilot education has been massive. This in turn means that when airlines will start looking for new pilots there will not be enough being trained either.
So, there are things that point to the fact that there will be a shortage. If you take my first point for example the amount of pilots born in the babyboom 1940s and 1950s are at close to 30% in many of the bigger companies which is becoming a bigger problem every day. People will have to retire and someone will have to take their seat. This coupled with a rise in passenger traffic will be reason to hire more pilots. Probably less so in the US but more in China, Middle East and rest of Asia.
atct From United States of America, joined Mar 2001, 2285 posts, RR: 38
Reply 13, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 4027 times:
Quoting affirmative (Reply 12): We can se today that ALL the ME carriers EK, EY and QR, to name the big ones, are in dire need of pilots.
Raise the pay and benefits...and not living in the Middle East...and many of us would fly there. (Treating crews like shit doesnt help their HR departments that much as well...) Before I get flamed, I have many friends and former colleagues at Emirates, FlyDubai, Jet Airways, Kingfisher etc.
"The way to get started is to quit talking and begin doing." - Walt Disney
MrChips From Canada, joined Mar 2005, 927 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 3946 times:
Quoting ZKSUJ (Reply 11): Pilot shortage seems to be a way of flying schools tricking students to do their courses.
In North America (mostly the US), the "pilot shortage" touted a few years ago feels like a fabrication by the regional airlines and the big, commercial "license mill" flying schools. How can you keep labour cost down? By having a readily available pool of pilots who are more than willing (desperate, even) to fly for criminally low pay, which is in turn justified by the size of the labour pool chasing the jobs that are available.
saab2000 From Switzerland, joined Jun 2001, 1610 posts, RR: 11
Reply 15, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 3882 times:
Quoting m11stephen (Reply 9): There are over 7000 furloughed pilots in the US right now. There is no shortage...
This number does not tell the whole truth. Let's use AA as an example. They have about 2000 on furlough. They will be doing well if they get 25% of those to return. Many have found new jobs and will never return to AA. Why should they if they are now medium seniority captains at JetBlue? Same with the furloughed Midwest guys who have found work at AirTran or JetBlue. But their numbers are still out there as furloughed.
When I started working at my current carrier I talked with many United pilots who said that United wouldn't hire for 10+ years due to the high numbers of furloughed pilots. Suddenly they started recalling and for every 3 who got the return call, only 1 would actually return.
I predict that unless there is a huge reduction in the number of RJs, there will be a 'tightening' of the market for pilots at the RJ level, starting in about 2 years. There is already a trickle of hiring at a number of companies like JetBlue, Delta, AirTran, Virgin America, etc. Many airlines like AA and FedEx are very, very top heavy and will experience attrition in the dozens per month starting in December 2012. So while I don't predict an outright shortage, there will be movement.
stratosphere From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 1651 posts, RR: 4
Reply 17, posted (4 years 1 month 2 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 3770 times:
Well I don't think there will be a shortage of either pilots or mechanics. .. Mechanics? Well they have been outsourcing even to other countries for years as for pilots? There will ALWAYS be pilots who will fly those shiny jets SJS Shiny jet Syndrome for next to nothing. As long as there are people who will do that you will never have a shortage. They can always lower the mins to get who they want if they need to.
There is not and will not be a pilot shortage any time soon. In Canada, there is an over abundance of 200hr CPL wonders roaming around for jobs. I'd say out of 10 CPL 'grads", 1 will get a job. And then, the odds of that job being 100% legitimate, safe, paying reasonably and isn't slave labour is about 30-40%. That being said, those who get jobs via resume are 1 in 100. The other 99 work away on the ground paying their dues. It's a good way to get to know your staff. It weeds out the lazy and moronic people. By the time they reach flight line, you can almost guarantee it's a good individual.
I'm not very experienced with the American side of things. As far as I know, it seems to me that there are too many kids running around with 200hrs and CRJ "training" from the ridiculously priced aero universities. This will continue well into the future no doubt.
flyby519 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 1136 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (4 years 1 month 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 3343 times:
Quoting YWG (Reply 20): I'm not very experienced with the American side of things. As far as I know, it seems to me that there are too many kids running around with 200hrs and CRJ "training" from the ridiculously priced aero universities. This will continue well into the future no doubt.
Same story here south of the border
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Fly2HMO From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (4 years 1 month 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 3313 times:
Quoting BAfan (Thread starter): If we don't see such programmes, what will be the solution to this problem?
Assuming the reduction of shiny-jet-syndrome types of idiots who ruin it for the rest of us, the only way to attract more pilots would be to considerably improve pay and working conditions for starting pilots. It's insulting to having invested over $70k in an aviation education just to be treated as a slave with a starting salary below $30k at almost all regionals, that's food stamp eligible in some cases.
Also, it would help if those schools with zero-to-hero programs that invest more in marketing than in their goddamn fleet would close down, thus eliminating the SJS epidemic.
At the end of the day its a matter of supply and demand, and there appears to be enough candidates that will happily work for $30k, or pursue those zero-to-jet jobs.
If you are in this business for money, I suggest you maybe reconsider as seemingly this business at the moment continues to have an endless number of people that will literally fly for food and supply of willing candidates exceeds global piloting jobs.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
cobra27 From Slovenia, joined May 2001, 1011 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (4 years 1 month 5 days ago) and read 3271 times:
I kind agree with LAXintl. Those guys who earn through hard labour all the money for the cpl ir me and possibly type more than deserve to be the pilots. Those old fags that got all training paid up and nice salary afterwards (to be honest I would complain if I had a pilot job like that) - that is a thing of the past.
The bad thing is probably that a perfectly good pilot can't be a pilot without money for training
If you like money you can go for traffic controller, it is way easier and requiers litteraly no investment.
: As long as ERAU and the like, and their gullible students who think they will magically end up in the left seat of a A380, are around there will be no
: ERAU is just full of kids who have wealthy parents and hand them everything. That's fine as the world has many of them too. My problem is their idea t
: I remember way back when I was just getting into aviation, Delta Connection Academy and the likes were very temping. But once you dig a little deeper
: Amen Not really. Over the past 4 years we've hired a BUNCH of off the street people with no aviation background. Go to a CTI school, graduate, get hi
: True, because flight school themselves depend on your income. And you would get line training arranged for money also.
: But if they don't, they end up with the fighter pilot ego at what ever job they are currently in.
: Now wait just a minute.. there are pilots who think they are Gods gift to aviation EVERYWHERE. The wealthy parents bit is probably accurate for the m