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Fleet Replacement Project Aeronautical Engineering  
User currently offlinejeffreyklm From Netherlands, joined Aug 2009, 39 posts, RR: 0
Posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 16 hours ago) and read 2831 times:

Hello all,

My name is Jeffrey Schäfer, I'm an aeronautical Engineering student at the University of Applied sciences in Delft.

I'm currently working on a fleet replacement project for a fictional airline based in Indonesia (Java Air Services). We have to replace their current fleet of Fokker 70's and 100's with newer, more effiefient aircraft.

In order to make a final desision we have to make a score table of all aircraft we can choose from.

We can choose from:
CRJ-700/900/1000, CSeries 110, Bombardier Q400, ERJ-170/175/190, Fokker 100NG, Sukhoi Superjet, Mitsubishi MRJ-70/90, Airbus A318, Boeing 737-600, ATR-72-600.

We have searched online and found a lot of information but we have not been able to find the following:

- Availability in weeks.
- Lifetime in flightcycles.
- TAT, Turn Around Time.

My question to you, fellow anutters, is; can you help me/us with finding the information? Or is there someone who can provide me the information?

Thanks in advance, Kind regards.
Jeffrey Schäfer. Aeronautical Engineering Student.


✈ a mile of road or railway leads to nowhere, a mile of runway leads to everywhere. ✈ Aeronautical Engineering Student ✈
14 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlinetdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 80
Reply 1, posted (2 years 10 months 1 week 6 hours ago) and read 2745 times:

Quoting jeffreyklm (Thread starter):
We have searched online and found a lot of information but we have not been able to find the following:

- Availability in weeks.
- Lifetime in flightcycles.
- TAT, Turn Around Time.

The first point doesn't have much of a meaningful answer in your context. There is a complex negotiation with any OEM over delivery schedules...the more money you're willing to spend, or the more flexible you're willing to be, the earlier you may be able to get the aircraft.

The second two can be answered by the respective sales organizations...most OEM's like to help education institutions so they should be willing to give you representative data. Keep in mind that it's not really lifetime, it's designed service life...may aircraft can go longer with appropriately modified engineering and maintenance plans.

Tom.


User currently offlineFabo From Slovakia, joined Aug 2005, 1219 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (2 years 10 months 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 2664 times:

If I read it right, some of those are not even flying yet.
So even less meaning for your first point.

that could lead to a problem in finding an answer for number two, but I would try to follow Toms advice here.

and for number three, it is demonstrated every day by FR that you can turn a 738 in 25 minutes, but either way, I am not sure how airframe can limit TAT, so could you just enlighten me? (genuine interest)



The light at the end of tunnel turn out to be a lighted sing saying NO EXIT
User currently offlinejeffreyklm From Netherlands, joined Aug 2009, 39 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (2 years 10 months 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 2578 times:

Thanks for the help!  

Well we have learned from the colleges that TAT is influenced by the aircraft type when a certain type has les doors (Like a Fokker 70 only has two at the front) So that a catering truck can hook up to the back door on a 737 and the passengers can disembark in the front so the Ground crew can handle at least two things at the same time...

I have another question...

We have chosen the Boeing 737-600 to replace the fleet. Now my question is, how long will it take for a 737-600 to be delivered from the moment of order? we have to make a kind of timeline to show what will happen when, so we can show how fast the fleet will be replaced.

Jeffrey.



✈ a mile of road or railway leads to nowhere, a mile of runway leads to everywhere. ✈ Aeronautical Engineering Student ✈
User currently offlinetdscanuck From Canada, joined Jan 2006, 12709 posts, RR: 80
Reply 4, posted (2 years 10 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 2574 times:

Quoting jeffreyklm (Reply 3):
We have chosen the Boeing 737-600 to replace the fleet.

That's an interesting choice...can you elaborate more on how you guys reached that decision?

Quoting jeffreyklm (Reply 3):
Now my question is, how long will it take for a 737-600 to be delivered from the moment of order?

It all depends on how much configuration control you want. If you want a leased one, you can probably get one within a few weeks. Since there probably aren't any 737-600's in production right now you can't buy out an existing line position that has already started configuration, so you're probably talking about 6 months minimum.

Quoting jeffreyklm (Reply 3):
we have to make a kind of timeline to show what will happen when, so we can show how fast the fleet will be replaced.

The rate is going to make a much bigger difference than when you start taking deliveries (depending on the size of the fleet). The highest rate customer I've ever seen is Ryanair, who's had up to 5 aircraft at Boeing Field at the same time (more than one per week).

Tom.


User currently offlinejeffreyklm From Netherlands, joined Aug 2009, 39 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (2 years 10 months 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 2559 times:

Quoting tdscanuck (Reply 4):
That's an interesting choice...can you elaborate more on how you guys reached that decision?

Seen the enormous (when comparing to the other aircraft of choice) payload, our company, which is a tourist&Business airline which focusses on the tropic destinations around Indonesia. (Big suitcases) And the range of the 736 which can reach from Yogyakarta to a big cities like Bangkok and Darwin. Also the 737NG family has proven itself being very succesfull and the Sukhoi's and MRJ's are still in their development phase and the ERJ family hasn't got the long range and payload combination. (In our opinion ofcourse)

The Payload and performance of the A318 wasn't high enough to beat the 737-600 in our trade-off. But it came close... (together with the ERJ-190).

Jeffrey Schäfer.



✈ a mile of road or railway leads to nowhere, a mile of runway leads to everywhere. ✈ Aeronautical Engineering Student ✈
User currently offlineFabo From Slovakia, joined Aug 2005, 1219 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (2 years 10 months 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 2490 times:

Interesting, considering that most of I have heard for the case of 736, it was the commoniality that drove current operators to operate them...

How much "real" is this fictional airline of yours, by that I mean, how far did you go in specification of operation? I can see it both being a one-off general assigment as well as token model for work throughout the course.



The light at the end of tunnel turn out to be a lighted sing saying NO EXIT
User currently offlinejeffreyklm From Netherlands, joined Aug 2009, 39 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (2 years 10 months 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 2423 times:

Quoting Fabo (Reply 6):
How much "real" is this fictional airline of yours, by that I mean, how far did you go in specification of operation?

Pretty "real", we were able to put up our strategy ourselves. The Economy and Business strategy has been made up concidering the big city destinations (SIN, KUL, BKK etc.) and for the rich holiday makers. and Economy for the other tourists.

In this case we wanted to provide our passengers with enough baggage to take with them (So they can take all their holiday stuff along) and give the posibilitie to fly to the bigger cities in the region (Concidering range). Also we wanted to take as much as possible PAX.

Then we researched the specifications of the given airplanes (Limited ammount...) In the end we decided to let the following aircraft trough:
- Airbus A318.
- Boeing 737-600.
- Bombardier CRJ-1000.

Then we compared them all and put up formulas for every specification to give points.

The CRJ-1000 lost because of it's lack of range, lack of cargo hold size and passenger capacity.
The A318 lost because of the lack of passengers capacity and range. (Was a close one though).

If we had the choice, I'd surely choose the 737-700/800 instead of the -600 but because we were limited to the 737-600.

Jeffrey Schäfer.



✈ a mile of road or railway leads to nowhere, a mile of runway leads to everywhere. ✈ Aeronautical Engineering Student ✈
User currently offlinechieft From Germany, joined Jun 2005, 357 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (2 years 10 months 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 2420 times:
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The B737-600 is an interesting choice, definitely.

But would it be one for the reality? I doubt it. If it would be as good as anticipated, why doesn't sell Airbus the A318 and Boeing the B737-600? The reason is mainly, that it is unlikely, that they are on most routes economkical viable. They are fas heavier than the competion in for of ERJs or CRJs / CSeries.
They only reason justifying A318 or B736 might be the range, and possibly, luggage challenge, but for a serious consideration we would need the base and exact route structure.

Sorry if this sounds rude.

I read recently a study about these aircraft and it found out:

The CSeries has a superior cash operating cost advantage over the current A318 and A319, retains significant advantage over the A319neo (the A318 won’t be re-engined) and compares favorably with the A320neo;

The CSeries has a superior cash operating cost advantage over the Boeing 737-600 (none has been sold since 2005) and the 737-700 and compares favorably with the 737-800;

The NEO program provides Airbus with economic advantages over the 737NG;

The CSeries has a superior cash operating cost advantage over the Embraer E190-195

Possibly this charts helps:





[Edited 2011-12-23 06:56:56]


Aircraft are marginal costs with wings.
User currently offlinejeffreyklm From Netherlands, joined Aug 2009, 39 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (2 years 10 months 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 2337 times:

Quoting chieft (Reply 8):
They are fas heavier than the competition in for of ERJs or CRJs / CSeries



They are indeed, but the ERJ's didn't meet our range criteria and the CRJ's didn't meet the cargo space requirements. That left them out of the race.

Quoting chieft (Reply 8):
The CSeries has a superior cash operating cost advantage over the current A318 and A319, retains significant advantage over the A319neo (the A318 won’t be re-engined) and compares favorably with the A320neo;



The CSeries lost the race because of the lack of hard-facts. Also the airline needs the replacement within 2 years. Considering that there isn't even one prototype of the CSeries we couldn't count on that as a good choice.

Quoting chieft (Reply 8):
The NEO program provides Airbus with economic advantages over the 737NG;



One thing I have learned from the colleges I attended was that all manufacturers seem to lie about the others. Making themselves look WAY better than they really are. So we left the statements of the manufacturers out of the game mostly. We tried to hang on to the facts given by things that have been proven in the past.

Jeffrey Schäfer.



✈ a mile of road or railway leads to nowhere, a mile of runway leads to everywhere. ✈ Aeronautical Engineering Student ✈
User currently offlineJRadier From Netherlands, joined Sep 2004, 4703 posts, RR: 50
Reply 10, posted (2 years 10 months 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 2288 times:

Jeffrey, what are the drivers of this Project? Is it mainly technical (which I would expect from Delft), or is there also an economic component in it? If it is purely technical (range, capacity etc) I can see the choice for the 736, if there is an economic component in it I'd be really interested to see how you guys got a profit out of that one.


For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and ther
User currently offlinePezySPU From Croatia, joined Dec 2011, 283 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (2 years 10 months 18 hours ago) and read 2243 times:

Are you (OP) sure that replacing both F70 and F100 with 736 is a good choice? 736 is larger than both of them. Can Java Air Service deal with increase in capacity?

Could you give us the exact routes Fokkers operate? Timetable maybe? That would help a lot.

Quoting JRadier (Reply 10):
Jeffrey, what are the drivers of this Project? Is it mainly technical (which I would expect from Delft), or is there also an economic component in it? If it is purely technical (range, capacity etc) I can see the choice for the 736, if there is an economic component in it I'd be really interested to see how you guys got a profit out of that one.

  

[Edited 2011-12-25 03:08:17]

User currently offlinejeffreyklm From Netherlands, joined Aug 2009, 39 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (2 years 10 months 17 hours ago) and read 2225 times:

Quoting JRadier (Reply 10):
Jeffrey, what are the drivers of this Project? Is it mainly technical (which I would expect from Delft), or is there also an economic component in it? If it is purely technical (range, capacity etc) I can see the choice for the 736, if there is an economic component in it I'd be really interested to see how you guys got a profit out of that one.

Yes it is mainly technical like how almost the entire study is technical, we as the "management" demanded a high range, high capacity for our replacement.

Quoting PezySPU (Reply 11):
Are you (OP) sure that replacing both F70 and F100 with 736 is a good choice? 736 is larger than both of them. Can Java Air Service deal with increase in capacity?

Could you give us the exact routes Fokkers operate? Timetable maybe? That would help a lot.

Well, the thing is, we did not only had the task to replace the old fleet of Fokkers. But we also had the freedom of setting up a entirely new strategy. We changed the strategy from low cost (RyanAir style) commuter to a business (small section) and economy tourist strategy.

For the old strategy the only need was an aircraft that had enough seats, almost no checked luggage space was needed and there was only demand for one class.
In the new strategy there was a high demand for Cargo capacity and range to fly to the big cities like Bangkok and the seat capacity to fly to high demand places like Bali and Singapore (Connecting long haul passengers to their final destinations and visa-versa).

Jeffrey.



✈ a mile of road or railway leads to nowhere, a mile of runway leads to everywhere. ✈ Aeronautical Engineering Student ✈
User currently offlineJRadier From Netherlands, joined Sep 2004, 4703 posts, RR: 50
Reply 13, posted (2 years 10 months 16 hours ago) and read 2223 times:

Jeffrey, that confuses me a bit. I can see why the project is mainly technical (with Delft being what it is), but part of the task was to introduce a new strategy, without the economic factors incorporated? So no demand analysis, economic calculations (loads/costs/revenues), etc? Basically just assumptions on the profitability of it all? That sounds like a sure way to get overly focussed on one area, and thus suboptimization. I think that isn't a good thing to teach... Looking forward to how this project is really set up, and for which year this is (first?).

[Edited 2011-12-25 05:28:23]


For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and ther
User currently offlinePezySPU From Croatia, joined Dec 2011, 283 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (2 years 10 months 12 hours ago) and read 2180 times:

You would need a larger aircraft for your new strategy to work (economically), there's no need to push the aircraft you were given by changing the strategy. I just don't understand why you wanted to change it. Basically, what you ended up with is just taking the largest possible aircraft.

I'm a bit confused... As JRadier pointed out, it's pointless to change the strategy without looking at the economical viability of it all.


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