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AirBus- Tough 3 To 4 Years Ahead-Quoting BAE!  
User currently offlineHalibut From , joined today!, posts, RR:
Posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 4528 times:

A fellow A-netter made this very same prediction a number of months ago . Referring to the tough times ahead for Airbus . The new XWB-A350 may very well turn out to be a splendid a/c . However , it won't hit the sky's for nearly 1/2 a decade .

Questions :   eyebrow 

Did BAE do the right thing by pulling out now ?

Did they get a fair price ?

Hhmm scratchchin 

Halibut

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2006/09/13/afx3012656.html

BAE Systems defends Airbus stake sale, predicts possible Airbus cash call UPDATE

Turner told journalists in a conference call that BAE believes it has picked the right time to divest the stake because Airbus faces 'a very significant challenge' in the next three to four years.

He said the European planemaker, the other 80 pct of which is owned by European aerospace group EADS, is facing a revitalised challenge from US planemaker Boeing and its 787 Dreamliner programme.

'I would not be surprised if there was a cash call on shareholders to invest cash in Airbus,' Turner said. Further investment by BAE in Airbus would not have been a priority for the UK firm, given its focus on the US defence industry, he added.



[Edited 2006-09-13 14:13:23]

80 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineN754PR From , joined today!, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 4516 times:

oh look another topic about how bad Airbus is doing..... yawn.

Look, it was Boeing in a very serious way just a few years ago, they got out of it.... Airbus are not even so badly off and they will also get out of it.

User currently offlineSwissy From Switzerland, joined Jan 2005, 1230 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 4464 times:
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Ei ei ei, what a bucket full of sh.., BAE will be sorry that they sold their shares prematurely.......... as for the 787 well we still have to wait and see how it will
effect Boeings financial performance.... once they are close to get that girl up in the air........

It makes sense that BAE will invest in the US defence since there will be future
growth.....

Other than that just bla bla bla bla......

Thanks for the post Halibut

Cheers,

User currently offlineEbbUK From United Kingdom, joined May 2006, 678 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 4430 times:

Quoting Halibut (Thread starter):
Did BAE do the right thing by pulling out now ?

Did they get a fair price ?

Timing is your forte'. This was all the news last week but you decide to post these important questions now. Just when I thought it was old news. You ask the questions, I will give you my views.

Yes BAE did the right thing for their strategy to move into the US and remove themselves from the civil aircraft industry. Staying any longer would have a)hampered the plan which had shareholder approval b) potentially cost them more money to get Airbus back on the straight and narrow

I believe the price was right, anyone or company who thinks the grass is greener on the other side deserves all they get. Fair price indeed.

What's your take?

User currently offlineNYC777 From United States, joined Jun 2004, 4138 posts, RR: 23
Reply 4, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 4430 times:
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I just saw on Bloomberg that Mike Turner also expects more A380 delays than the ones already announced. this would not be a surprise as even Airbus managment has warned that there maybe further A380 delays beyond the ones already announced. That program is hurting in a big way.


That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
User currently offlineDanny From Ireland, joined Apr 2002, 3116 posts, RR: 3
Reply 5, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 4430 times:

Already discussed at lenght here:
http://www.airliners.net/discussions...general_aviation/read.main/2985021

User currently offlineLumberton From United States, joined Jul 2005, 3421 posts, RR: 12
Reply 6, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 4418 times:

BAE needs shareholder approval to complete their divestment so I wouldn't expect Mr. Turner to sing EADS' praises. Time will tell whether this was wise or short sighted.

[Edited 2006-09-13 14:41:20]


"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 2311 posts, RR: 3
Reply 7, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 4392 times:

Well there may be a few difficult years ahead for AB but BAe would say that wouldn't they.....

User currently offlineHalibut From , joined today!, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 4380 times:

Quoting Danny (Reply 5):
Already discussed at lenght here:

No !  talktothehand 

This thread is about a very resent comment made by BEA , pertaining to the there feelings of Airbus's future & why they decided to sell .

This is a post sales thread , not a prior or current one . " Post " !

Ok ?

Thanks

Halibut

User currently offlineElite From Hong Kong SAR, PRC, joined Jun 2006, 1263 posts, RR: 4
Reply 9, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 4380 times:
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More delays... I wonder if they are going to start losing customers soon.


If you're going through hell, just keep going
User currently offlineEatmybologna From France, joined Apr 2005, 363 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 4365 times:

Quoting Halibut (Thread starter):
a cash call on shareholders to invest cash in Airbus,'

So, how does that work exactly? Is it simply the corporation contacting each and every shareholder asking for more investment? Is it a stock offering at a discount for current shareholders?

Thanks,

E-M-B


Isn't knowledge more than just the acquisition of information? Shouldn't the acquired information be correct?
User currently offlineRichardPrice From , joined today!, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 4349 times:

Quoting Halibut (Reply 8):

This thread is about a very resent comment made by BEA , pertaining to the there feelings of Airbus's future & why they decided to sell .

Recent comment? It was made on the day they announced they were putting the proposal to the shareholders...

This Forbes article is not news, despite having a 'new' datestamp on it.

User currently offlineHalibut From , joined today!, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 4329 times:

Maybe BAE had a heads up on this , if accurate ?

Mr Udvar-Hazy "3rd A380 Delay Likely" (by PanAm_DC10 Sep 13 2006 in Civil Aviation)

Halibut

User currently offlineDanny From Ireland, joined Apr 2002, 3116 posts, RR: 3
Reply 13, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 4329 times:

Quoting Halibut (Reply 8):
This thread is about a very resent comment made by BEA , pertaining to the there feelings of Airbus's future & why they decided to sell .

Exactly this was discussed in the other thread, nothing new here.

But if you just wanted to bash Airbus a bit here you got a better chance to do it:
Mr Udvar-Hazy "3rd A380 Delay Likely" (by PanAm_DC10 Sep 13 2006 in Civil Aviation)

User currently offlineHalibut From , joined today!, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 4294 times:

Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 11):
.

Recent comment? It was made on the day they announced they were putting the proposal to the shareholders...

This Forbes article is not news, despite having a 'new' datestamp on it.



Quoting Danny (Reply 13):
Exactly this was discussed in the other thread, nothing new here.

Hhmm  scratchchin 

Can't say I agree with you guys on this . I briefly went over that thread you state is similar to this one . I did not see the 3 to 4 year Pickle comment in it !

Off to work !

Halibut

User currently offlineKatekebo From United States, joined Apr 2001, 654 posts, RR: 3
Reply 15, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 4294 times:

In a sense, this is old news. Since the details of A380 delays emerged and the false-start of the original A350, it was obvious that Airbus is in trouble and only somebody who is deaf and blind will keep saying that Airbus is doing great. A 2b euro profit warning and loss of 40% of stock value are major financial disasters for any company. New orders are also trailing for a second year in row (OK, last year they sold a lot of A32x, but value share was clearly Boeing's win).

On the other hand, this does not mean a demiss of Airbus - they will have a tough period, but will survive and continue being one of the two leaders in civil aviation, at least in the foreseeable future.

What is interesting is that it indicates that BAE's decision to jump ship is clearly related to the recent mishaps in Airbus, which might be indicative that the problems are deep-rooted and may take longer to fix that what EADS want the public to believe.

So net, we all know that the problems are there, BAE's statement just adds a (small) additional dimension to them. Next two years will be crucial to determine Airbus future:

1) A380 sales after EIS and in-service confirmation of performance and economics.

2) How many customers / orders will the A350 attract after official launch.

If these two indicators are positive within the next 18-24 months, than Airbus will recover quickly. On the other hand, if both stumble, the recovery is going to be slow and painful, and Airbus may not recover to its full glory.

My two cents....

User currently offlineEDDB From Germany, joined Aug 2006, 237 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 4255 times:

Quoting Elite (Reply 9):
More delays... I wonder if they are going to start losing customers soon.

Why would they? Every airline who ordered the whale did that because they see a need for this bird, and since it seems to meet its performance targets and afaik everyone still expects traffic to grow by roundabout 5% per year, I don't see a reason for cancelations... Let Airbus pay for the delay and wait till your aircraft arrive...

I also expect LH to follow SQ and order some aditional 380s, so this whole crisis talk could be all over in a few weeks or months...

User currently offlineRichardPrice From , joined today!, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 4245 times:

Quoting Halibut (Reply 14):
Can't say I agree with you guys on this . I briefly went over that thread you state is similar to this one . I did not see the 3 to 4 year Pickle comment in it !

From my post on that thread -

Quote:

"The board believes that Airbus is facing a challenging short to medium-term outlook," BAE said.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/5321626.stm


Wooo they changed the wording. Same difference.

User currently offlineScouseflyer From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2006, 2311 posts, RR: 3
Reply 18, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 4200 times:

"In the long term Airbus will do very well. Cleary it has issues today but I see them as quite temporary,"

I guess we can all draw what we want from an article.

User currently offlineRevelation From United States, joined Feb 2005, 2337 posts, RR: 1
Reply 19, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 3964 times:

Quoting Danny (Reply 13):
Exactly this was discussed in the other thread, nothing new here. But if you just wanted to bash Airbus a bit here you got a better chance to do it: Mr Udvar-Hazy "3rd A380 Delay Likely" (by PanAm_DC10 Sep 13 2006 in Civil Aviation)

Yep, there's some great pyramid talk in that thread!


Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineManni From Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4201 posts, RR: 12
Reply 20, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 3868 times:

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 15):
New orders are also trailing for a second year in row (OK, last year they sold a lot of A32x, but value share was clearly Boeing's win).

Let's not get to carried away... Airbus sold more than twice the amount of aircraft they ever sold in any previous year, including more widebodies than ever before last year. They nearly doubled their backlog!

Airbus clocked up 222 firm orders so far this year, and has several hundreds pending, the majority being widebodys.

They might be trailing Boeing, in fact they are at the moment, but as long as they're awake and aware in Toulouse, I wouldn't write them of just yet. It will take them roughly 35 years to work trough their orderbook if they sign up and deliver aircraft at this years rate to date...

Quoting Katekebo (Reply 15):
What is interesting is that it indicates that BAE's decision to jump ship is clearly related to the recent mishaps in Airbus, which might be indicative that the problems are deep-rooted and may take longer to fix that what EADS want the public to believe.

BAE's decision to jump ship might well have been out of necesity in order to be able to focus and finance new aquisitions in the defence sector. BAE's sale of EADS share was up in the air long before the new series of delays and the rebirth of the A350 were up in the air. As far as Turners recent comments is concerned, I'll regard it as a case of sour grapes. How is a man that wasn't able to tell a few months ago what was going on at Airbus with the A380 and was surprised by an additional A380 delay, that eventually lead to his shareholders loosing out on a lot of money, all of a sudden able to predict EADS fortunes?


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User currently offlineHalibut From , joined today!, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 3860 times:

Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 17):
Wooo they changed the wording. Same difference.

No !
Your article was not as specific as this new article regarding BAE's feelings towards EADS ! It quoted BAE chief executive Mike Turner saying :

Clearly it has issues today but I see them as quite temporary !

3 to 4 years , temporary ??? I think not !

My article referred a 3 to 4 year issue for Airbus , which is almost 1/2 a decade . I feel there is a possibility BAE caught wind of these new A380 delays rumors just recently & are now feeling much more confident about there decision to cash out now !

This is a whole new can of worms for EADS in light of yet another looming A380 delay !

Halibut