PanAm_DC10 From Australia, joined Aug 2000, 2875 posts, RR: 67 Posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 13977 times:
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Third delay of the A380 “likely,” says ILFC chief
Steven Udvar-Hazy, the chairman of giant International Lease Finance Corp., said Friday that a third delay for the Airbus A380 is likely. Problems with the wiring systems required for customization of the complicated interior systems are reported to be worse than thought and that another delay may be announced soon.
More details at the following link with the full article. I cannot attest to it's accuracy
SkepticAll From , joined today!, posts, RR: Reply 3, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 13869 times:
See another 100+ post thread here! Anyway, if the boss over at ILFC believes further delays are to be anticipated, then I would image he is speaking as someone "in the know". I'm sure this announcement (unofficial as it is) comes as no real surprise to anyone here. This aircraft is unprecedented in scale and these delays are part of the natural process.
I'm sure folks are getting tired of hearing these words but they are as true now as they were six months ago.
Astuteman From United Kingdom (England), joined Jan 2005, 4346 posts, RR: 64 Reply 4, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 13869 times:
Katekebo From United States, joined Apr 2001, 654 posts, RR: 3 Reply 7, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 13693 times:
Quoting SkepticAll (Reply 3): This aircraft is unprecedented in scale and these delays are part of the natural process.
These issues are a proof of poor project management and lack of managerial vision. All major projects have challenges, but the project managers plan for them, anticipate them, and make interventions before they turn into disasters. The A380 delays are a major failure of Airbus management - they engaged in a bigger challenge than they could manage.
If you want to build a pyramid, you don't start with 40 slaves, you need 200,000 of them. Even the Egyptians 4,000 years ago knew how to plan and manage the resources required for a project, Airbus should know better.
Manni From Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4196 posts, RR: 11 Reply 8, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 13570 times:
Quoting Katekebo (Reply 7): These issues are a proof of poor project management and lack of managerial vision. All major projects have challenges, but the project managers plan for them, anticipate them, and make interventions before they turn into disasters. The A380 delays are a major failure of Airbus management - they engaged in a bigger challenge than they could manage.
If you want to build a pyramid, you don't start with 40 slaves, you need 200,000 of them. Even the Egyptians 4,000 years ago knew how to plan and manage the resources required for a project, Airbus should know better.
Let's not get to excited over a potential delay. Mr. Hazy, no doubt a professional and respectable man in the industry, was speaking at the future of flight centre in Seattle and also in front of a Boeing crowd.
Aviator27 From , joined today!, posts, RR: Reply 9, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 13529 times:
After reading the article, a few things stood out at me which many of us have been stressing for a long time on this forum.
"As a coach passenger, we'd rather spend 12 hours in a 19 inch seat than a 17.2 inch seat. There are just no buts about that."
Using Boeing's own forecast for VLA over 20 years. If both manufacturers split the market 50/50, then Airbus will sell 495 of their A380's making the program profitable.
"The manufacturers can plug in any number they want whether reasonable or unreasonable to get almost any desired result. Thus the reader of all data, whether from Boeing, Airbus, or anyone else, should be taken with a certain amount of skepticism."
Any additional delay in the A380 program is unfortunate because I still think it will be a remarkable airplane from a passenger comfort standpoint. Boeing has already admitted wiring issues on the B787, but has maintained their program is still on track.
I fly back and forth between the Eastern USA and Asia in economy class. I have done 4 round trips in the past 8 months. I rather not spend the ridiculous sums of money for first/business class. A good economy class seat and service are on my mind. If airlines can offer better comfort at slightly lower costs than the B747, I will be all over it like frosting on a cake.
PanAm_DC10 From Australia, joined Aug 2000, 2875 posts, RR: 67 Reply 10, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 13489 times:
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Quoting Manni (Reply 8): Let's not get to excited over a potential delay. Mr. Hazy, no doubt a professional and respectable man in the industry, was speaking at the future of flight centre in Seattle and also in front of a Boeing crowd
Manni I do understand and accept your point however Mr Udvar Hazy is accountable to his stockholders and coprorate governemance requires that he report such news immediatly. The more so after the parent holding company of ILFC, AIG, came under intense regulatory investigation.
Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Thread starter): More details at the following link with the full article. I cannot attest to it's accuracy
I believe we need more than just this report so we can make a considered decision. That he presented this to a "Boeing Crowd" has little to do with it IMO due to my previously mentioned corporate governance guideline which he must operate under.
In this case I believe we need further details which can be expected later this month when Airbus announce the results of their 100 day review.
No, this would be the fourth, only counting those after the first orders were signed.
The first delay pushed first delivery to SQ back from March to May. The second delay pushed first delivery back from May to November. The third delay pushed first delivery from November to December and later frames back by up to seven months.
Stillborn refers to a descendant born dead, whereas the A380 has about 150 orders. Delays are not nice, but they're very common in this kind of programmes.
Quoting Katekebo (Reply 7): If you want to build a pyramid, you don't start with 40 slaves, you need 200,000 of them. Even the Egyptians 4,000 years ago knew how to plan and manage the resources required for a project, Airbus should know better.
There are no indications the ancient Egyptians could have built the A380 at all.
TeamAmerica From United States, joined Sep 2006, 1538 posts, RR: 10 Reply 13, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 13363 times:
And what is the reason for the newest delay? Given that the Early Long Flights have just been conducted, dare we assume that some significant problems were found? Mr. Humbert said that the ELF testing would be a critical event. Looks like he was right.
Zvezda From Lithuania, joined Aug 2004, 9650 posts, RR: 58 Reply 14, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 13318 times:
Quoting Joni (Reply 12): Delays are not nice, but they're very common in this kind of programmes.
No, they are not very common, though some programmes are delayed once. Name another airliner that has been delayed three or four times (after orders have been signed).
Sphealey From United States, joined May 2005, 272 posts, RR: 0 Reply 16, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 4 days ago) and read 13221 times:
Not really surprising given that the new management team only took over as the last delay was being uncovered. It takes time to dig into an unstable project and figure out how to get it back fully on track; if the answer were obvious the previous management team would have just done that. It stands to reason that the new dudes would turn over some rocks that were being sat upon, make changes, and possibly readjust the schedule.
TeamAmerica From United States, joined Sep 2006, 1538 posts, RR: 10 Reply 17, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 4 days ago) and read 13221 times:
Quoting Aviator27 (Reply 9): Using Boeing's own forecast for VLA over 20 years. If both manufacturers split the market 50/50, then Airbus will sell 495 of their A380's making the program profitable.
Time value of money. If it takes 20 years to get to the 495th delivery, the program will not have been profitable.
You're right, profitability has to measured against the time value of money but also opportunity cost. If Airbus, instead of plunking down $15bn on the A380 focused on an all-composite super lightweight, super efficient mid market widebody aircraft that they could deliver within 4 - 5 years of launch and make them more money than the A380 they should have jumped at that opportunity instead of the whalejet.
Seems to me that someone else figured that one out.
NAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 5837 posts, RR: 19 Reply 19, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 4 days ago) and read 13054 times:
I find this a terrifying paragraph:-
"Singapore Airlines, which is scheduled to receive the first A380 in December, may get the airplane in a ceremonial delivery, with the aircraft immediately returning to Airbus for further work, two sources said. As few as four airplanes, down from a revised schedule of seven, may be delivered next year, the two sources told Leeham Co., including one A380 customer."
My sympathies are with the airlines. How on earth can they run their businesses, and cope with all the other pressures on them, when they literally don't know as yet which YEAR their A380s are going to be delivered in?
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
JAAlbert From United States, joined Jan 2006, 529 posts, RR: 1 Reply 20, posted (1 year 10 months 1 week 4 days ago) and read 12980 times:
Quoting Katekebo (Reply 7): If you want to build a pyramid, you don't start with 40 slaves, you need 200,000 of them. Even the Egyptians 4,000 years ago knew how to plan and manage the resources required for a project, Airbus should know better.
As I recall from my school days, it took Egypt several attempts over a few hundred years to perfect the pyramid. (At least one of the early ones collapsed) Using your analogy, Airbus has a lot more time to get its act together! Also, the pyramid builders were not slaves, but paid workers and archeologists estimate that only 4,000 workers actually built the structures with an extimated 16,000 - 20,000 secondary workers employed in the quarries and other building shops.
The point? A pithy, but inaccurate, analogy fosters not understanding, but lazy thinking and attitudes.
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