I see all this planned growth and still Avelo has only 15 aircraft and none on order that have been formalized. The PR-GTJ aircraft that was to become N806VL fell through and is now parked at Tucson. There are hundreds of available 737’s available for lease and yet Avelo cannot seem to cut any deal...
Jump to postWow, what an absolutely terrible schedule to a family vacation spot. If you've got young kids whose bedtime is 7 or 8:00, who wants to be landing at 10:45 and trying to schlep to a hotel at that hour? And on the return, you'll have to leave your hotel by 11:00 a.m. or noon. What are families going ...
Jump to postKeesje, This is a great database. I may suggest adding a few other items for efficiency scoring: - Aspect ratio or spanloading, with a preference to spanloading - Aircraft wetted area, and wetted area per seat. This is difficult to find, but for the Airbus aircraft, you can find the approximate surf...
Jump to postIndigo Partners…twice. First with Spirit then Frontier. Although “distressed” might be a little extreme, neither were in a good place when Indigo Partners stepped in. Having spent time with the Indigo team, I'd argue they're a very specific case that has strong, embedded industry knowledge. The rea...
Jump to postHe’s said it a couple of times in interviews. In fact, he even directly quoted the Ryanair and easyJet model as his long term vision Quoting hub and spoke plans: https://www.travelandleisure.com/airlines-airports/avelo-airlines-what-to-know Quoting Ryanair model: https://worldairlinenews.com/2021/0...
Jump to postI’m quoting Levy. He mentions plans to switch to a connecting hub format You keep saying this, but I've never seen any quote stating they are switching to a connecting hub format. Can you provide a source or a link? He’s said it a couple of times in interviews. In fact, he even directly quoted the ...
Jump to postI could see Burbank turning into a full scale connecting hub, can’t see this from New Haven though. Avelo isn't about being a connecting hub airline in either BUR or HVN. Same as Allegiant, Spirit, etc. I’m quoting Levy. He mentions plans to switch to a connecting hub format You keep saying this, b...
Jump to postHow is CAK-HVN going to work? There's a ton of non-stop service to Florida and the SE coast from NE Ohio between UA, B6, WN, F9, G4, NK and now Breeze. I mean who's really going to fly to HVN from CAK to connect to PBI? It's probably faster to just rent a car from FLL. HVN is a lousy place for a hu...
Jump to postPart of my concern with Avelo is their future plans. What they are doing right now is fine. Leasing cheap/last generation aircraft and stimulating traffic demand after a once in a century downturn. But was is their plan going forward? What is their fleet plan? What is their route strategy? DN @ Bre...
Jump to postIt is always a tradeoff, and a casino bet.... And they obviously haven't had issues hiring, so those rates are "market". If successful, those hired now will be management pilots or top-of-the-list senior in any base they choose in a few years. Never underestimate the value of QOL. Those r...
Jump to postNew startup Avelo Air (BUR) pilot pay (737-800): Year CA FO 1 $76.00 $41.07 2 83.00 47.00 3. 88.00 50.00 4 93.00 53.00 https://twitter.com/aviatorwriting/status/1382193008435634178?s=21 Yikes. You get better salary at a regional, and you get a union contract. But with how dire the pilot hiring indu...
Jump to postThey are planning a $88.75mil private securities offering placement on January 30th. https://sec.report/Document/0001567619-20-001710/primary_doc.html The date on that document appears to be from January 2020, most likely the financing related to the article below: https://www.latimes.com/business/...
Jump to postI think the 'B757+' name isn't that descriptive. I think it's more likely to be a 762 sized airplane. This is going to add value beyond A32x family members. Yet it's not going to have range like A330/787 so it'll be lighter. It arguably could, though. The 767-200ER had an MZFW of 5000nm, which is t...
Jump to postHack! Another UA/CO merger goon that screwed up the airline, IMHO. Didn’t he leave UA on bad blood? I applaud the effort to bring in more competition. I would imagine if this airline ever gets off the ground, it’ll be in the same class as NK, G4, and F9. I doubt a bean counter from Allegiant would ...
Jump to postThe Boeing 789 is substantively less expensive than the A339. The Boeing 789 and the Airbus A339 functionally serve the ~same utility. The aircraft are similarly list priced ..price B789 (2019jan) 292.5 * 50% = 146.25 ..price A339 (2018) 296.4 * 50% = 148.2 The estimated life of the B789 and A339 a...
Jump to posthttps://leehamnews.com/2018/05/17/boein ... -carriers/ Also: Per seat fuel burn: -1.5% Per seat DoC: -1.2 ~ 1.5% Aircraft trip cost: +11% Seats per aircraft: 45 (+12%) That's for a 7000+nm mission, should be close to the best case for the 779. Thanks, those are different numbers than I recall from ...
Jump to postCan you actually dispute what is saying. The Allegiant model clearly works. SY and F9 use similar models. Also, G4 started off with an aircraft people were busy retiring. And they are the most profitable carrier in America by margins. The last part is probably not going to happen since legacies are...
Jump to poston a separate topic, while we wait for the LGB news. https://leehamnews.com/2020/01/16/air-canada-inaugurates-a220-300-service-today/ Interesting that we now have AC confirming the economics of A220-300. It's said that "Air Canada configures the -300 with 137 passengers in business and coach c...
Jump to postNope. This is directly from United Airlines, CFO Andrew Levy. I wouldn't qualify him as a random guy on twitter with extreme Airbus bias. Nope. It was made by Edward Russel. He wrote articles for Flight Global that were always positive Airbus news and orders. Now he is just a random guy on twitter ...
Jump to posta.net keeps acting like Boeing is some collapsing mess. Their market cap is 210 billion. Yes, they screwed up, and yes, having accountability by separating BOD and CEO is good, but it isn't like Eddie Lampert is in charge here. People around the world love thrills and Boeing has become the phantasm...
Jump to postJesus you won’t let this go. It’s was supposed to Be here in September and ready to roll in November. This was original plan. Then airbus told them about delays and they knew they wouldn’t get the aircraft early. They had to push back arrival to 2020 to fit with 2020 goals as they did with the neos...
Jump to postYah that 30 owned gone in 2020 is incorrect. B6 was supposed to get 1 A220 in September, and 4 next year. Due to delays B6 received 0 a220, and will right now get 1 A220 next year. The e190s will be around till 2025. B6 is also about 7 neos short from the 14 they were supposed to get this year. Yes...
Jump to postYah that 30 owned gone in 2020 is incorrect. B6 was supposed to get 1 A220 in September, and 4 next year. Due to delays B6 received 0 a220, and will right now get 1 A220 next year. The e190s will be around till 2025. B6 is also about 7 neos short from the 14 they were supposed to get this year. Yes...
Jump to postAlso a note from our BOS thread discussion, I'm reading enough E90 chatters that I think there is a pretty good chance the 30 owned E90 will stick around past 2025. Well, at least a good number of them, let's say 20. And those have the right capacity for BOS shuttle routes and should be able to do ...
Jump to postEither way, seems strange to me that not more people are picking up A220s given its economics. And that doesn't even factor in possible higher RASM from the comfortable interiors. Don't get me wrong, the A220-300 is a step in the right direction for smaller aircraft, and it's a large advantage for ...
Jump to postIt is widely regarded at B6 that the 190 vs 319 was a big mistake No, it’s not. While the e90 has been a mixed bag and is now due for replacement, all the growth in Boston could not have happened without it. The e90 wasn’t a stellar success, but it wasn’t a failure either. The only people I have ev...
Jump to postNeelman?? Bring back Horton! He did good things while at AA. Weren't Kirby and Parker like *buds* and they got into some drunken bar fight somewhere in the DFW Metroplex which led to Kirby leaving? Both are apparently train wrecks while under the influence. People forget that Doug was leading Ameri...
Jump to postThe CEO of a US airline must be a US citizen. Can you point to that law, please? He can't because it's untrue. Federal Aviation Act of 1922. And this https://www.travelweekly.com/Travel-News/Airline-News/Virgin-America-can-meet-test-for-U-S-citizenship-DOT-says Then why did the DOT order VX to have...
Jump to postTiming is one of the factors, but there are several others. Discounted cash flow (dcf) is the most commonly used valuation method. Using that method, what you and I could see as meaningless variations in the assumptions (such as the discount rate, the tenor and terminal value) can have a huge swing...
Jump to postA valuation of an asset and a transaction price at the factory gate are not the same things. I am sure you already knew that? Mostly timing, isn't it? price building happening when ordering from the factory ( long lead time to delivery, final payment ) versus short time haggling on an offered exist...
Jump to postThere is a reason new aircraft are only purchased for good utilization. For narrowbody aircraft, the ownership costs are only 10% of the use costs: https://speednews.com/article/6963 Fuel is the big one at 31%. MRO costs are more than ownership costs at 11% I estimate line maintenance at about 6%, ...
Jump to postAnd of course you would never admit that Boeing (and it's Partners) maybe were able to design the airplane to require less labour hours to assemble. It's Barrel process seems to be more automated and it's wing maybe as well. One of the benefits of all electric design for subsystems may be faster as...
Jump to postI always love this post, it allows me to spend an hour fantasy shopping for the jet aircraft of my choice. I am always amazed at the monthly cost to lease a plane. For the 350-900, a million dollars + each month is a lot of cash you've got to come up with -- add on to that the cost to crew and fuel...
Jump to postYou are all not discussing the common understanding that you can buy an 787 for a lot less than an A350. That is probably one of the primary reasons the 787 is selling so well. Boeing did a lot of work to get 787 costs down (taking a lot of titanium out for example) - now Airbus - which has publicl...
Jump to postThe question is now why use a NMA or B787/A330 when you can offer more frequencies and the same CASM with an A223? I think that this also opens up a lot of thinner US transcon point to point routes. To take the example of Ohio, second tier airports like CVG, CLE, CMH, CAK that were previously serve...
Jump to postflyby519 wrote:Planeboy17 wrote:Gulfstream500 wrote:
Wait a second... B6’s E190s are about to be retired too...
The last one is scheduled to leave in 2025
Source?
I remember watching a documentary on UA many years ago when it was basically a domestic carrier with a few routes to Canada and Mexico One of their claims in that era however was that they flew to all 50 states Is that true anymore, If not how long has it been since they could claim that ? Incident...
Jump to postCould this mean orders for the 797? The MAX-10? I think we should dismiss the 797, as a small airline is unlikely to be thinking about a wide-body which doesn't exist. Right now the seven narrow-body USA airlines do not fly routes longer than 2500 nm (Alaska Air from Anchorage to KOA on Big Island ...
Jump to postThe 737-800 has consistently had sale and lease rates that are about 5% higher than the A320. 737MAX-8 pricing also has been a little higher than A320neo pricing, but data is limited. If the 737-8 has a higher market value than the A320neo (before the crashes) it can be implied that if it is offere...
Jump to postWhat you're talking about is the simple accounting entry for how share repurchases work on the balance sheet, the impact on cash and stockholders equity. This is purely accounting. The way the market values a company's equity generally does not match the company's book value of equity. For sharehol...
Jump to postummmm no.....they are buying outstanding shares which raise the price. Well technically he’s right, for the investors that UAL repurchases the shares from. Those investors get cash in exchange for their shares. What you’re referring to is the benefit to all of the remaining shareholders. Once UAL r...
Jump to postWN has 59,000 employees which is 55% of AA (not including regional employees). Coincidentally, their RPMs are also 55% of AA. The big difference in employee cost though is WN has very few layers of middle and upper management and they expect a lot of performance out of anyone that has the word Mana...
Jump to postHow is "buy back stock" giving money back to investors? Because they own the stock. When the airline buys your stock they pay you for it. ummmm no.....they are buying outstanding shares which raise the price. Well technically he’s right, for the investors that UAL repurchases the shares f...
Jump to postA330 is more expensive than the 787, so I don't know why you think the a330 can be done "dirt cheap" Do you have a legitimate source for this claim that is not an AvWeek, AIN, Leeham, etc. article? Having fielded offers for both aircraft, this is categorically false. And it's not even clo...
Jump to postSo, lightsaber, you're shorting leasing company stocks then, confident that their lease rates will drop? :) It's bold to say the market - and its $ Billions of assets held by leasing companies and carriers - is wrong. This grounding may prop up 737-800 lease rates in the short-term, but it will be ...
Jump to postI was just talking to neeleman...turns out he is actually planning on taking this capital to buy back Jetblue and go private. In cohorts with the pilots maybe. They want him back. I wonder if the the pilots will attempt labor action to drop the stock price, Neeleman could then purchase it through a...
Jump to postWhat irritates me the most is that we have enough revenue generation to become debt free very quickly. I feel that all the "shareholders" must have shareholdings in finances as well. It's insane, even at 1.9% interest, to take on debt when you don't have to. This statement shows a serious...
Jump to postWhat irritates me the most is that we have enough revenue generation to become debt free very quickly. I feel that all the "shareholders" must have shareholdings in finances as well. It's insane, even at 1.9% interest, to take on debt when you don't have to. This statement shows a serious...
Jump to post"Crew communications consistent with a loss control of the aircraft began approximately 18 seconds prior to the end of the recording." I am so grateful for the professionalism of the NTSB. To me this implies a loss of situational awareness; they would have been in a dive attitude for long...
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