Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Oil revenue is down but the Russians are still delivering a lot of gas to EU customers. https://www.fleetmon.com/fleets/teekay-arc7-ice-class-lng-tanker_624653/ That is not "a lot" but actually just a small fraction of what they had been delivering via pipelines, and much less lucrative t...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Either way it is highly unlikely that the official russian numbers are anywhere close to the truth as they would be crucial indicators of Russia's actual vulnerability and with just the factors we know it is highly improbable that the massive changes in Russia's foreign trade would just have no effe...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Fair use extract from FT: “No one will forgive MPs, judges, ‘military commissars’ or any other officials for putting themselves in opposition to the state,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly TV address on Tuesday. “Any internal betrayal . . . or any personal enrichment . . . triggers fury at ...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

When one side has nothing but dissent, isurrection, in-fighting and incompetence and the other projecting confidence and a totally united front it really must be just a matter of time before the former crumbles. In fact it seems the process is already under way. It was thought by many last year tha...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Who's next after Girkin? https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1682683244884500482 Girkin seems to have publicly ranted about Putin's deficient leadership, so speaking the truth at least in this one aspect (besides all of Girkin's other Putin-aligned lies!) made him a target. His mass-murdering wa...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

I'm confused by this statement. Is he worried about foreign troops raiding the BRICS summit and arresting Putin? Does he mean that it's an "act of war" against South Africa or against Russia? If he means South Africa, it doesn't mean anything. Nobody is afraid of them. South Africa is a s...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Revelation wrote:

Putin is killing a lot of RU citizens just because of his paranoid view of the world.

Sooner or later he'll hang for it, hopefully sooner.

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

If you look at the link GDB just provide, you see the idea I gave at work. EU provides funds over several years to member states. Those member states sign long term contracts for themselves and the munitions/weapons given to Ukraine are partially reimbursed. If Ukraine doesn't needs them anymore, t...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Yes, German media are reporting about every little "sign of an internal collapse" they see. Not that I could see, nor are german media my only or even primary sources. Being a notorius pessimist I often have the feeling such articles are written with a lof of wishful thinking. "Signs...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Now the other ammunition order from the german Bundeswehr to Rheinmetall after the previous MBT ammunition order: https://www.rheinmetall.com/de/media/news-watch/news/2023/07/2023-07-18-rheinmetall-erhaelt-grossauftrag-artilleriemunitionder-der-bundeswehr (Safari translation) The need to refill the ...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

In the end Russia will be lucky to get firm NATO and Ukrainian guarantees of their internationally recognized borders (pre 2014), but reparations to Ukraine will still have to be negotiated. Meanwhile, China is looking north. :stirthepot: It would be ironic if Russia had to appeal to the same stand...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

So how do you see this war ending? ... NATO will continue to send old equipment to Ukraine and they will continue to die along with Russians. I’d say it’ll end more or less in the current state, with Russa controlling the east. So much for the direct Putin propaganda feed. Meanwhile In real life, U...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

And russian tourists have diverted to the slog through the war zone, causing a 10km traffic jam at the recently stormshadowed connection from Crimea to the "land bridge": https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1680904266154688516 At least they'll have stories to tell when – if – they g...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Some pretty strong criticism there, along with a dose of disinformation too. A quite bleak picture is being painted. It'd be far worse if the entire strength of NATO would be put to use in UA, as RU claims to be the case. The mighty RU empire has no answer for low visibility marine drones made in U...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Standard trolling, I'd say. That the bridge still remains unsafe and fragile despite all russian protective measures ist the main point, so holding Crimea under these circumstances with a likely ukrainian breakthrough at the russian land bridge gets ever more unfeasible, and revolts in the russian a...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

The "land bridge" route is problematic: Prices for water have raised 8-10x, using a bathroom costs $5, most cell phone service doesn't work, conflicts with military traffic are common, and of course it's all a war zone. Hopefully it makes for a miserable experience. A trip that used to ta...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Obviously Ukraine would love Russia to abandon Crimea but are there really signs of that approaching? A ukrainian conventional military campaign through all those fortifications into Crimea would be very difficult indeed, but on the other hand Crimea is getting more and more dicey for Russia to hol...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

The damage to the bridge looks like it affects the road spans in both directions, one worse than the other, but probably both in need of replacement, which can again take a while. Ideally the pylons would also be damaged but russian authorities deny that being the case at this time. Unfortunately th...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

This may actually be even more consequential: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jul/17/russia-ukraine-war-live-crimean-bridge-emergency-traffic-stops-explosion?page=with:block-64b4cd408f080a06e3061160&filterKeyEvents=false In other Russia-Ukraine related news, Moscow’s Ministry of Defe...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

I wonder how the non-aligned world with little interest in the war in Ukraine will see the ending of the grain exporting agreement and any consequential price rise in grain. Who will be blamed - Russia or Ukraine? Is the view of the non-aligned nations of any interest to the parties involved with t...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

It's their bed, they made it, they sleep in it. What we need to do is make sure they don't jump into other people's beds. Yeah, catching Putins by proximity would be most unfortunate! :vomit: That's the thing: A dictator is basically a parasite , feeding on and hollowing out the entire state and ma...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Maybe now would be a good time to knock down the Kerch bridges. It would discourage the Russians and boost the morale of the Ukrainians. To paraphrase Zelensky: The ukrainians don't need a morale boost, they need ammunition and planes! Their morale is not the problem. And I think the above linked j...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

In view of the heavy losses UKAF is reported to be suffering in its ground attacks, would it not be better for Ukraine to desist in those and spend time denuding support for Russian ground forces by destruction of Russian supply chain logistics? If that means there would be no breakthrough this yea...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

The postwar peace largely rested on the trust by Europe in the US who was far enough away and had no empire intentions. And the fact that fascism eas stamped out and Germany and France integrated into a united Europe. Deterrence of the Soviet Union hinged primarily on US backing, that much is true....

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

To truly change Russia ( for the better) something akin to the way post war Germany was handled would be required. The problems in Russia are just as intractable. But not going to happen. The reason why almost all american-led regime change campaigns after 1945 have failed spectacularly is that Ger...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

To me, a realistic assessment of what UKAF are up against in their endeavours to advance on the ground against prepared Russian defences. That is why the Ukrainians will probably not use the tactic that the General was demonstrating. I would not be surprise if the Ukrainian won't use the breaching ...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

I just want to highlight how the delay in launching the EU joint procurement initiative is weighing on the supply of the Ukrainian army in this critical phase of the war. What you posted here, while very encouraging, doesn't seem to have anything to do with the EU joint procurement initiative which...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Thank you for providing these details but I'm not confusing anything. I'm just quoting from the article I posted above. Klaus suggested that the non-standard ammo's exclusively come from non-NATO countries by picking the case of the Finnish ammo's mentioned in the article. I claimed nothing of the ...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

bikerthai wrote:

Klaus wrote:

So no, there is no dragging of feet over here!

Drag away, and Korean arms manufacturing will eat them for lunch. Marinated chicken feet are a delicacy over there.

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Then turning on the future and the ramp-up of the ammo production. The contrast between the European governments and the American one: European munitions makers refuse to scale up production without state guarantees. They say they are afraid to have to shrink back if the war ends soon. Thus, they d...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

2. I have posted here on several occasions the progress of the EU about ramping-up the ammo supply. The "Link 1" article provides a good summary of what I posted over the past months. It's a pain to witness the EU at work, or more precisely, the governments of the EU member states. After ...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Tomcat---you appear to be confusing incompatability with different types of rounds. If they were incompatible, they wouldn't chamber/work in the weapon. This seems to be more of a case of different specialty rounds. Just like there are several different types of 5.56mm NATO ammunition. The rifle ne...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Ukraine on the path to self-sufficiency in terms of mortar and artillery shells supply. But it's still a long way to go... Just months after he was tapped to oversee Ukraine’s arms industry, Oleksandr Kamyshin says it produced more mortar and artillery shells in June than it made in all of last yea...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Absolutely, but the attrition phase is not just wasting time, it is a crucial part of the counter-offensive on its own. Unfortunately with many casualties, but at least the losses skew substantially against Russia. One of the reasons why attrition by air power is preferred is due to the lower casua...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Why not offer Russia EU membership, Because that would make zero sense on absolutely every level. Blind hatred against the EU is not a viable policy, not from Russia, not from other parts. It just leads nowhere as we see. Ukraine was attacked by Russia exactly because the ukrainians absolutely want...

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - *Discussion* Thread

Interesting analysis to me. The essence of what he says is that Ukraine is unlikely to achieve a war-changing breakthrough lacking the equipment needed so Ukraine is stuck in a war of attrition for the time being.. That is not how I heard it. Rather that attrition is almost always the precursor to ...