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by bigjku
Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 2149
Views: 271445

Re: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018

That might be the best solution. It would prevent a NMA getting NEO'd like the NSA. http://www.pilotcareernews.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/image.jpg Boeing were able to fix a MAX launch in weeks in July '11, so 3 months should be enough. Anyway they have been preparing the launch for 4 years now...

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by bigjku
Tue Apr 17, 2018 3:55 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 2149
Views: 271445

Re: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018

https://leehamnews.com/2018/04/17/boeing-to-implement-structural-design-change-in-787-8-for-production-commonality/ Boeing is renewing the 787-8. The space for the proposed 797 in the Boeing line up shrinks to the area between the 737-10 and the 787-8. What influence will that have on the 797? Will...

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by bigjku
Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 2149
Views: 271445

Re: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018

https://leehamnews.com/2018/04/17/boeing-to-implement-structural-design-change-in-787-8-for-production-commonality/ Boeing is renewing the 787-8. The space for the proposed 797 in the Boeing line up shrinks to the area between the 737-10 and the 787-8. What influence will that have on the 797? Will...

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by bigjku
Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:28 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X won't buy "too expensive" Airbus A350: Tony Fernandes
Replies: 135
Views: 18910

Re: AirAsia X won't buy "too expensive" Airbus A350: Tony Fernandes

I don’t think this is a minor issue. Taking on a concentration like that works for EK at the very top end of the scale but it does have its own problems which have caused issues even for an airline of that size. If I ran Air Asia X I am of course asking for a better price but before I commit fully ...

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by bigjku
Mon Apr 16, 2018 8:40 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X won't buy "too expensive" Airbus A350: Tony Fernandes
Replies: 135
Views: 18910

Re: Air Asia X cancels A350. Decision on fleet expected later this year.

= Exactly right. It is Tony - a man with no moral compass who changes his mind via media everyday to maximize publicity. I am sure his vendors have already factored his mercurial nature in their calculation. Saludos, Alex The situation with the A339neo os fundamentally different from what they prob...

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by bigjku
Mon Apr 16, 2018 8:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X won't buy "too expensive" Airbus A350: Tony Fernandes
Replies: 135
Views: 18910

Re: Air Asia X cancels A350. Decision on fleet expected later this year.

This is Air Asia X.. an airline that seems to change its strategy every few months. The amount of times it has stated it will grow frequencies only to not long after instead cut them on its network is just too hard to follow. Their fleet decision making process seems just as hard to read. = Exactly...

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by bigjku
Mon Apr 16, 2018 5:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X won't buy "too expensive" Airbus A350: Tony Fernandes
Replies: 135
Views: 18910

Re: Air Asia X cancels A350. Decision on fleet expected later this year.

Source: @TonyFernandes (CEO Air Asia) has just confirmed the airline has no plans to buy the Airbus #A350 XWB — despite having 10 of them on (firm) order. • AirAsiaX also has 66 #A330neo aircraft on firm order • Final decision on AirAsiaX’s future fleet is expected later this year So by the looks o...

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by bigjku
Mon Apr 16, 2018 3:05 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X won't buy "too expensive" Airbus A350: Tony Fernandes
Replies: 135
Views: 18910

Re: Air Asia X cancels A350. Decision on fleet expected later this year.

If they change it really comes down to the economics of operating the 787-10 of which Airbus doesn’t have an equivalent. The 789 should be able to basically run the same seating layout as an A339neo. It’s a bit less long but seems to taper less in the back end so it should be pretty close. The 10 w...

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by bigjku
Mon Apr 16, 2018 2:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: AirAsia X won't buy "too expensive" Airbus A350: Tony Fernandes
Replies: 135
Views: 18910

Re: Air Asia X cancels A350. Decision on fleet expected later this year.

If they change it really comes down to the economics of operating the 787-10 of which Airbus doesn’t have an equivalent. The 789 should be able to basically run the same seating layout as an A339neo. It’s a bit less long but seems to taper less in the back end so it should be pretty close. The 10 wo...

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by bigjku
Sat Apr 14, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rolls Royce having more 787 problems
Replies: 79
Views: 14841

Re: Rolls Royce having more 787 problems

Are you OK? Large slabs of this make no sense whatsoever! :shakehead: cheers Go back and revisit the history of the 787 and see what Boeing initially proposed about the engine interface, initially it was more than just a common pylon. I think the issue was always that there is not a pool of spares ...

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by bigjku
Sat Apr 14, 2018 4:43 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rolls Royce having more 787 problems
Replies: 79
Views: 14841

Re: Rolls Royce having more 787 problems

I'm going to guess that the OP isn't an engineer. All of this is unfortunate, but I can see exactly how it happens, and I think RR is being reasonably forthcoming about it all. Part of the problem of course is that you can't exactly run down to your local home depot and buy a set of replacement wid...

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by bigjku
Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:59 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rolls Royce having more 787 problems
Replies: 79
Views: 14841

Re: Rolls Royce having more 787 problems

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-13/rolls-royce-to-carry-out-more-inspections-of-trent-1000-engines Sounds like things are going to get worse before they get better. At this point I don’t buy anything they say about any engine program they are running. Hopefully they have the other T...

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by bigjku
Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rolls Royce having more 787 problems
Replies: 79
Views: 14841

Re: Rolls Royce having more 787 problems

Sounds like things are going to get worse before they get better. At this point I don’t buy anything they say about any engine program they are running. Hopefully they have the other Trent’s right at this point but would anyone be shocked if they don’t? I think that might be a bit excessive. At lea...

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by bigjku
Fri Apr 13, 2018 12:41 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Rolls Royce having more 787 problems
Replies: 79
Views: 14841

Rolls Royce having more 787 problems

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-13/rolls-royce-to-carry-out-more-inspections-of-trent-1000-engines Sounds like things are going to get worse before they get better. At this point I don’t buy anything they say about any engine program they are running. Hopefully they have the other T...

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by bigjku
Thu Apr 12, 2018 1:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Delta Q1 earnings thread
Replies: 25
Views: 4590

Re: Delta Q1 earnings thread

Cost climb but it's another profitable quarter for the beast Delta.........what do you'll think the other majors will report? I think most of the publicly traded US airlines at this point are pretty disciplined and well run. They do things that make money and don’t engage in things that lose them m...

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by bigjku
Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future of the A338
Replies: 123
Views: 16089

Re: Future of the A338

The A330NEO is dead. Boeing is able to sell the 787 for less. This killed the business case. This might be true: The strategy was obviously to crash the A330 NEO. But what happens to the next contracts? Whoever from larger Airlines will want to buy the 787 above the 88 Mio mentioned? The one who si...

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by bigjku
Wed Apr 11, 2018 10:14 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future of the A338
Replies: 123
Views: 16089

Re: Future of the A338

Only problem is that nobody will order an aircraft that the market doesn't want. If airlines wanted to replace their A330-200's with A330-800's they would've ordered the plane. The 787-8 is available, and many have already selected it. Others may upgauge to larger aircraft, which basically means yo...

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by bigjku
Wed Apr 11, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study
Replies: 213
Views: 23984

Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

NB: I thought I'd posted this yesterday, I see it sitting in my browser now. So might be a bit out of place in the thread... http://www.ascendforairlines.com/sites/all/themes/ascenddigital/_media/articles/62/sprite-2.jpg No doubt the numbers would adjust somewhat, but it'll do for approximations. F...

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by bigjku
Wed Apr 11, 2018 3:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study
Replies: 213
Views: 23984

Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

On a 20 year purchase operating cost as are if not more important than your purchase price. If I can get significantly better performance in 2-4 years why not wait? NB: I thought I'd posted this yesterday, I see it sitting in my browser now. So might be a bit out of place in the thread... http://ww...

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by bigjku
Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study
Replies: 213
Views: 23984

Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

I think what it comes down to is..... if you have a market that 1) Is out of the range of an A321LR 2) Cannot support a B787-8 .... Its probably not worth serving. Theres long and thin and then theres too long and too thin. All the markets that are 4000nm+ apart with less than a 200 pax demand ever...

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by bigjku
Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future of the A338
Replies: 123
Views: 16089

Re: Future of the A338

Rather surprised no one has commented on Malaysian's decision to reopen its wide body bid to Airbus and Boeing: https://www.reuters.com/article/malaysia-airlines-boeing/malaysia-airlines-launches-widebody-tender-process-could-oust-boeing-787-deal-source-idUSL4N1RF32W MH is assessing the 787, 330neo...

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by bigjku
Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study
Replies: 213
Views: 23984

Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Is there any reason other than fandom to suspect the C-Series will really be much more than the 717 redux? And it isn’t just a $1 investment. They have already come out and said the only way to profitably build the plane is to scale production quite a bit. To do that you need lots of sales. Most ai...

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by bigjku
Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study
Replies: 213
Views: 23984

Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Is there any reason other than fandom to suspect the C-Series will really be much more than the 717 redux? And it isn’t just a $1 investment. They have already come out and said the only way to profitably build the plane is to scale production quite a bit. To do that you need lots of sales. Most ai...

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by bigjku
Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study
Replies: 213
Views: 23984

Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

I think they are being diverted but not into the manufacuring process (unless you are meaning resources are shifted). But Airbus is running into a simple problem. On a 20 year purchase operating cost as are if not more important than your purchase price. If I can get significantly better performanc...

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by bigjku
Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing has held takeover talks with Embraer: WSJ
Replies: 482
Views: 52362

Re: Boeing has held takeover talks with Embraer: WSJ

Flightglobal reporting deal between the two is likely to be finalized. I expect interesting things to come out of this tie up.

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by bigjku
Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:10 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study
Replies: 213
Views: 23984

Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Airbus is obviously diverting engineers to production. It is a classy problem to be at high production and being unable to meet demand. This is what gives off the smell of disinformation, IMHO. How does shifting engineers from one set of projects that is in design phase to another that is in manufa...

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by bigjku
Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study
Replies: 213
Views: 23984

Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

Airbus has to integrate the C series and make a return on its 1$ investment in that programme. Once that is done, the space above the biggest C series will be clearer than it is now. An updated 320 / 321 may then have a role to play, or may not. The longer they can afford to wait, the better the av...

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by bigjku
Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study
Replies: 213
Views: 23984

Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

c933103 wrote:
So are they going to make a clean sheet aircraft instead?


The article said suspended not cancelled.

There is likely an appropriate time for it but it isn’t with two hundred out of 7,000 aircraft being delivered...

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by bigjku
Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future of the A338
Replies: 123
Views: 16089

Re: Future of the A338

I stand by my contention that it’s too big and too capable for a huge number of routes and that this hurts it up against the 787. Which of course bears the glaring flaw of assuming that it was designed to compete directly or even primarily against the 787, when it's long since evolved into more of ...

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by bigjku
Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study
Replies: 213
Views: 23984

Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

The a320 plus plus with the new wing is not shelved... only the interim aircraft is not being shown to the airlines at this stage. I still think the same issue applies. If you are an existing customer and don’t desperately need new planes right now why would you not immediately defer the four years...

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by bigjku
Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study
Replies: 213
Views: 23984

Re: Airbus shelves A320neo-plus study

The plus case was always tougher than many here made out and it was always ignored when brought up. You have a 7-8 year backlog you want to clear out smoothly and profitably. You can offer delivery on a short timescale only through deferral/conversions or a further rate increase where suppliers are ...

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by bigjku
Mon Apr 09, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future of the A338
Replies: 123
Views: 16089

Re: Future of the A338

That appears to be the least fact/logic based conclusion here thus far.... Airbus offered a smaller model, and no one wanted it. Not sure how someone can then conclude that they're building it "too big," when that's what customers have been purchasing, versus smaller options! People have ...

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by bigjku
Mon Apr 09, 2018 1:44 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future of the A338
Replies: 123
Views: 16089

Re: Future of the A338

[twoid][/twoid] I believe Airbus built the A350 too big That appears to be the least fact/logic based conclusion here thus far.... Airbus offered a smaller model, and no one wanted it. Not sure how someone can then conclude that they're building it "too big," when that's what customers hav...

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by bigjku
Mon Apr 09, 2018 1:37 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future of the A338
Replies: 123
Views: 16089

Re: Future of the A338

I believe Airbus built the A350 too big and the A330neo isn’t good enough. They are going to need a new widebody plane but haven’t left themselves a great space to do it in. I am suggesting they recognize the problem sooner rather than later. The A350 is not "too big". Lets not forget it ...

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by bigjku
Mon Apr 09, 2018 1:12 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future of the A338
Replies: 123
Views: 16089

Re: Future of the A338

For those who say that the A330 replacement market hasn't come yet, when that market comes in say, the mid-2020s where late Model A330s are gonna get replaced, what additional advantages would the A330neo gain over the 787 that it doesn't currently possess now? -Capex? That argument is getting shak...

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by bigjku
Sun Apr 08, 2018 4:18 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future of the A338
Replies: 123
Views: 16089

Re: Future of the A338

Believe posters are jumping to conclusions way too early to determine whether the A330-800 will actually succeed as a long haul passenger aircraft, or not. The A330-800 offers many advantages over the comparable Dreamliner, while offering the same efficiency, or cost-per-average seat-mile/kilometer...

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by bigjku
Sun Apr 08, 2018 3:43 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Future of the A338
Replies: 123
Views: 16089

Re: Future of the A338

Believe posters are jumping to conclusions way too early to determine whether the A330-800 will actually succeed as a long haul passenger aircraft, or not. The A330-800 offers many advantages over the comparable Dreamliner, while offering the same efficiency, or cost-per-average seat-mile/kilometer...

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by bigjku
Sun Apr 08, 2018 12:19 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing more aggressive under new CEO?
Replies: 69
Views: 8668

Re: Boeing more aggressive under new CEO?

After Hawaian order, Boeing managed to sell dreamliners to American and gets A350 cancelled. Next stop : Air Asia although it seems the most difficult to get done out of the 3. If I recall correctly, Air Asia and ALC were the ones who pushed the most for a revised A330 when Airbus was unsure about ...

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by bigjku
Sat Apr 07, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order
Replies: 552
Views: 69069

Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

AA still is fundamentally the customer in this relationship. As the customer, particularly a large customer, you have to do a lot more to piss off the other party generally. It’s not a symmetrical relationship. When there are only 2 providers and pissing off one would mean paying higher prices as a...

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by bigjku
Sat Apr 07, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order
Replies: 552
Views: 69069

Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

So what is the offset-deal? Unless Boeing pays for the lost Airbus deposits, it would be crazy not to cut a deal with Airbus in which the A350 order is replaced with a sizeable narrowbody order for A32Xs. People should really think this through. American has 400 A320 orders of various types and as ...

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by bigjku
Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order
Replies: 552
Views: 69069

Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Before this order was placed AA had 58 options for the 787. Assuming that they have converted 47 options into firm orders there is 11 left. There was another 28 options added to this order so there should be a total of 39 options in total left. For more refer to http://nyc787.blogspot.com.au/ -----...

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by bigjku
Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:04 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order
Replies: 552
Views: 69069

Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

Hopefully Air Asia will follow soon. Hopefully, they won't. They will if they are smart. The 787-10 is perfect for the huge majority of their routes and would fit their model of offering the lowest cost per seat aircraft they can. Then they can fly the 9 for geographic expansion to Europe and to op...

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by bigjku
Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:29 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order
Replies: 552
Views: 69069

Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

So what is the offset-deal? Unless Boeing pays for the lost Airbus deposits, it would be crazy not to cut a deal with Airbus in which the A350 order is replaced with a sizeable narrowbody order for A32Xs. People should really think this through. American has 400 A320 orders of various types and as ...

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by bigjku
Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order
Replies: 552
Views: 69069

Re: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order

What I find interesting about the AA order is the paradigm that AA is changing on the 788. Many on a.net scratched their heads when AA put their 788's at ORD and used them TATL saying it can't be a good CASM, etc. as it's not a 763 replacement. Now, AA has doubled down on this 788 TATL philosophy w...

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by bigjku
Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:18 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: American Airlines orders 47 additional 787's (22 788's and 25 789's), cancels A350 order
Replies: 552
Views: 69069

Re: AA ORDERS 47 787 FROM BOEING????

A lot of long a.net threads are now officially null and void. :rotfl: I wish. ;) How does this all factor in with the recent announcement of AA retiring their pre-9/11 738s? And looking to buy used A319s? It sounds like sound rational fleet planning. Each fleet and even sub-fleet has different opti...

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by bigjku
Thu Apr 05, 2018 5:25 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What is the highest cycle and hour A320 and 737?
Replies: 33
Views: 6024

Re: What is the highest cycle and hour A320 and 737?

MSN 55 (N624AW, ex-N904BN) was retired at about 88,000 hours by American Airlines. This was the last ex-Braniff-II A320 in service. As for the Dreamliner's limit of validity...well, that's what having a carbon composite frame will do. Curious how that compares to other widebody aircraft? Also anyon...

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by bigjku
Thu Apr 05, 2018 4:30 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: What is the highest cycle and hour A320 and 737?
Replies: 33
Views: 6024

Re: What is the highest cycle and hour A320 and 737?

MSN 55 (N624AW, ex-N904BN) was retired at about 88,000 hours by American Airlines. This was the last ex-Braniff-II A320 in service. As for the Dreamliner's limit of validity...well, that's what having a carbon composite frame will do. Curious how that compares to other widebody aircraft? Also anyon...

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by bigjku
Thu Apr 05, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Germany To Choose Between Chinook And CH-53K
Replies: 80
Views: 24620

Re: Germany To Choose Between Chinook And CH-53K

So that is a potential order for 300 a/c. So why didn't Airbus go for it? Now it is too late. Because the CH-47 orders stretch out over decades and many of the older Chinooks can be refurbished to F standard for a cost that a new development could never match. It seems like the 50-60 yr old Chinook...

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by bigjku
Thu Apr 05, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Ryanair reveals, it has one of the biggest gender pay gaps
Replies: 64
Views: 5025

Re: Ryanair reveals, it has one of the biggest gender pay gaps

They do different jobs. That isn’t a gender pay gap. A pay gap would be if it paid female pilots less than male pilots of same experience, capabilities and for the same amount of work. I would almost guarantee it doesn’t do that. And *THAT* is exactly why this legislation has come in! The whole poi...

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by bigjku
Thu Apr 05, 2018 12:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 2149
Views: 271445

Re: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018

I think the rewing thing is a bit over simplified here. That won’t be a quick and easy project. Moreover they will need to find delivery slots for it and right now that is a big problem for what, 4-5 years? How far in advance of a new aircraft could this really be delivered? Do you want to push rat...

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