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by bigjku
Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:54 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus A100, Fliegerfaust. Airbus might buy & upgrade CRJ line.
Replies: 135
Views: 26299

Re: Airbus A100, Fliegerfaust. Airbus might buy & upgrade CRJ line.

What are you talking about? The pilots negotiated, and the airlines agreed to, a MTOW limit as well as a seat count limit for contracted flying. How is it negotiating in bad faith to stick with the agreed upon limits? Management couldn't have known that a regional jet that they already operate woul...

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by bigjku
Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:59 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: B787-10 future prospects?
Replies: 210
Views: 23337

Re: B787-10 future prospects?

For comment on 777-300 (non-ER) short haul, the PW4090 was only certified for 4,000 cycles. It had horrible maintenance economics for JAL. That is very different than a GEnX. There is an interesting shift in range/capacity going on. In the previous generation, if you wanted a medium ranged airliner...

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by bigjku
Thu Nov 08, 2018 7:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Next A330 Neo orders....
Replies: 200
Views: 38890

Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

The challenge is that Airbus is competing for those orders against lessors, who have over-ordered the A330neo and are in a bit of a jam. Many small airlines (including those from emerging nations where financing a purchase may be a challenge) end up leasing their aircraft. I'm positive all of those...

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by bigjku
Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Next A330 Neo orders....
Replies: 200
Views: 38890

Re: Next A330 Neo orders....

AirAsia is currently in talk to convert some A339neo on order to A321neoLR. If all goes well, we will see reduction in their 100 frame order. Air Asia just increased that order. Why would they reduce it? Sounds really strange. Though I can see some reasons why they might have done it this way...

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by bigjku
Wed Nov 07, 2018 6:45 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Could Rolls-Royce plc be absorbed by Airbus in a near future ?
Replies: 34
Views: 4704

Re: Could Rolls-Royce plc be absorbed by Airbus in a near future ?

Once a company is a division or owned in a JV where a parent company uses the division's products, the division usually loses all of its former customers outside of the parent. The parent would also have a hard time getting competitors product on their own product. A good example is Spirit, once a ...

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by bigjku
Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:21 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 787 at rate 14...sustainable?
Replies: 12
Views: 2866

Re: 787 at rate 14...sustainable?

With a quick date-limited Google search one sees that AA, UA, Qantas, Emirates, Hawaiian, Azerbaijan and Turkish have all ordered 787s since the Leeham story. That story did not age well. To build, there is a shortage of near term widebody delivery slots of the latest generation. Only the A350, 787...

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by bigjku
Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Female Pilots in Commercial Aviation
Replies: 121
Views: 8085

Re: Female Pilots in Commercial Aviation

In response to the last couple of comments: this is exactly a part of why women don't want to be pilots. There are people constantly second-guessing them and saying "oh, you were just put up there because you're pretty/affirmative action/HR/blah blah blah", "you're taking qualified m...

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by bigjku
Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Technical/Operations
Topic: Female Pilots in Commercial Aviation
Replies: 121
Views: 8085

Re: Female Pilots in Commercial Aviation

In response to the last couple of comments: this is exactly a part of why women don't want to be pilots. There are people constantly second-guessing them and saying "oh, you were just put up there because you're pretty/affirmative action/HR/blah blah blah", "you're taking qualified m...

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by bigjku
Fri Nov 02, 2018 7:04 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Belgian F-16 Replacement RFI To Be Issued Soon
Replies: 177
Views: 27331

Re: Belgian F-16 Replacement RFI To Be Issued Soon

That isn't an accurate representation of the respective aircraft... I didn't say that the Eurofighter is stealthier and I didn't compare sensors. You're quoting marketing presentations or reddit users who quote marketing presentations. I'm going with the mainstream opinion that the Eurofighter prov...

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by bigjku
Wed Oct 31, 2018 9:09 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Admiral Kuznetsov Suffers An Accident in Drydock
Replies: 42
Views: 4360

Re: Admiral Kuznetsov Suffers An Accident in Drydock

Why on God’s green earth have they not built proper infrastructure to handle this rather than floating dry docks? ??? Floating dry docks ARE proper infrastructure for such things. All major navies use them, in varies sizes, to maintain and refit their fleet. There are some "in shore" ones...

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by bigjku
Wed Oct 31, 2018 7:47 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Admiral Kuznetsov Suffers An Accident in Drydock
Replies: 42
Views: 4360

Re: Admiral Kuznetsov Suffers An Accident in Drydock

Why on God’s green earth have they not built proper infrastructure to handle this rather than floating dry docks?

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by bigjku
Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus revises 2018 delivery target
Replies: 138
Views: 12713

Re: Airbus resorts to trickery on delivery goal

Airbus resorts to trickery on delivery goal As I read the Flight Global article, I was wondering how long it would take for A.net to come out and put a negative headline spin to that. I just knew if would not be disappointed. It was not question of if, just a question of when, and by whom . . . I d...

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by bigjku
Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus revises 2018 delivery target
Replies: 138
Views: 12713

Re: Airbus resorts to trickery on delivery goal

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/airbus-absorbs-a220s-to-maintain-800-jet-delivery-ta-453172/?yptr=yahoo TFA also says: Airbus adds that it its working to resolve “certain commercial challenges” on the baseline A330 and A380 programmes, which it intends to complete by the end of this year...

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by bigjku
Wed Oct 31, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: 787 In Service Thread 2018
Replies: 134
Views: 19490

Re: 787 In Service Thread 2018

This photo was posted on twitter a couple days ago, shows BA aircraft grounded due to 787 engine issues https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DnNvImyXgAEBF-m.jpg https://twitter.com/HofmannAviation/status/1041299299391471616 How many globally (not just BA) of the RR powered 787s are grounded? Thai has 5 per ...

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by bigjku
Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:56 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 787 deferred production cost watch
Replies: 83
Views: 7735

Re: Boeing 787 deferred production cost watch

We all know what would happen, the stock price would tank, that is why Boeing would never try out what would happen. The written off losses of the tanker or the 787-8 produced a reaction, being peanuts compared to this losses. The deferred cost are a real loss that, has not yet been booked. All tal...

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by bigjku
Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: A319 neo opportunity - Bangkok Airways
Replies: 20
Views: 3765

Re: A319 neo opportunity - Bangkok Airways

The A220-300 is 5.5tons lighter (empty) than the A319NEO. Since the -7 is being bid to keep them honest, this is an easy A220 win. Lightsaber By your own oft repeated logic price drops 12-13% drop for every doubling of production. Even if I am very nice and say these could be sold on an 8 per month...

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by bigjku
Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:42 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 787 deferred production cost watch
Replies: 83
Views: 7735

Re: Boeing 787 deferred production cost watch

So complete non accountant lack of understanding question, but do Boeing have a loan for $26Bn which they are repaying or did they just run up a charge on their balance sheet, either for an intangible asset or the physical tooling, which they're depreciating as they sell planes and actually get the...

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by bigjku
Mon Oct 29, 2018 1:53 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 787 deferred production cost watch
Replies: 83
Views: 7735

Re: Boeing 787 deferred production cost watch

mjoelnir wrote: The liabilities of a company are their whole dept, as something that has to be paid or wares to be delivered for. The equity is what a company owns. Cash is just a measurement if a company is liquid at this time. Cash accounting does not bother if you own the cash or have it on loan...

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by bigjku
Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:46 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 787 deferred production cost watch
Replies: 83
Views: 7735

Re: Boeing 787 deferred production cost watch

So complete non accountant lack of understanding question, but do (a) Boeing have a loan for $26Bn which they are repaying or (b) did they just run up a charge on their balance sheet, either for an intangible asset or the physical tooling, which they're depreciating as they sell planes and actually...

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by bigjku
Sun Oct 28, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Belgian F-16 Replacement RFI To Be Issued Soon
Replies: 177
Views: 27331

Re: Belgian F-16 Replacement RFI To Be Issued Soon

I’m sure the decision was political. It’s not good politics to lose your front line pilots because you bought AC that could not survive 20 minutes in a contested environment. Of course the decision was political. As it should be. What is worth looking into is whether the decision was based on a ten...

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by bigjku
Sat Oct 27, 2018 8:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 3473
Views: 409001

Re: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018

The dimensions do not lie. The A320 will always have a wider fuselage than the 737. In equal 6-abreast seating the A320 will have wider seats, wider aisle or both. When comparing A320 to 737, wider cabin means more comfort. When comparing A320 to 797, wider cabin means excess weight and drag. Got i...

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by bigjku
Sat Oct 27, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: La Tribune: Several Future A330neo Operators Have Asked Airbus To Delay Deliveries
Replies: 93
Views: 16320

Re: La Tribune: Several Future A330neo Operators Have Asked Airbus To Delay Deliveries

The 330neo went up-market and (maybe) is not really competitive. (Early days yet! Just like those a.net aces already condemning the 777X to failure. Not to mention Leeham). Hence my post above that a better chance was to work on the existing strengths of the A333 - cheap, reliable, great user base....

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by bigjku
Sat Oct 27, 2018 1:09 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: La Tribune: Several Future A330neo Operators Have Asked Airbus To Delay Deliveries
Replies: 93
Views: 16320

Re: La Tribune: Several Future A330neo Operators Have Asked Airbus To Delay Deliveries

A339 is just a an A333 with a different engine and wingtips, it is a low risk program that doesn't need much to succeed. It also pressures 787 to reduce its profit margin. The A339 can probably be profitable at $100 million or even less, and so it is anchoring 789 around that price. Even if priced ...

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by bigjku
Sat Oct 27, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Belgian F-16 Replacement RFI To Be Issued Soon
Replies: 177
Views: 27331

Re: Belgian F-16 Replacement RFI To Be Issued Soon

Europe’s 5th generation fighter will to the F-22/F-35 as the Eurofighter was to the F-15/16. A marginal advance against whatever the upgrades versions of those planes offer near the last quarter of their lifetime 20 some years or more behind the curve. Europe built the Eurofighter knowing full well ...

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by bigjku
Fri Oct 26, 2018 10:26 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: La Tribune: Several Future A330neo Operators Have Asked Airbus To Delay Deliveries
Replies: 93
Views: 16320

Re: La Tribune: Several Future A330neo Operators Have Asked Airbus To Delay Deliveries

It's always unbelievable to read how people here advise to just throw away a cash cow and simply leave the market segment. The reality is the A330neo was a half cocked program Airbus appears to have not gotten right. I think they learned some wrong lessons from the A320neo and thought it would appl...

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by bigjku
Fri Oct 26, 2018 9:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: La Tribune: Several Future A330neo Operators Have Asked Airbus To Delay Deliveries
Replies: 93
Views: 16320

Re: La Tribune: Several Future A330neo Operators Have Asked Airbus To Delay Deliveries

It's always unbelievable to read how people here advise to just throw away a cash cow and simply leave the market segment. I don’t think anyone is suggesting that but building something you can’t sell doesn’t exactly protect that market segment either. I think the suggestion would be build a new ca...

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by bigjku
Fri Oct 26, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: La Tribune: Several Future A330neo Operators Have Asked Airbus To Delay Deliveries
Replies: 93
Views: 16320

Re: La Tribune: Several Future A330neo Operators Have Asked Airbus To Delay Deliveries

musman9853 wrote: could it be that the neo doesn't give enough of a fuel burn advantage over the ceo? delays in engine delivery doesnt necessitate deferrals, no? Those are two different issues really. The request to defer are because there isn’t demand for the product. The engine thing appears to b...

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by bigjku
Fri Oct 26, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: La Tribune: Several Future A330neo Operators Have Asked Airbus To Delay Deliveries
Replies: 93
Views: 16320

Re: La Tribune: Several Future A330neo Operators Have Asked Airbus To Delay Deliveries

could it be that the neo doesn't give enough of a fuel burn advantage over the ceo? delays in engine delivery doesnt necessitate deferrals, no? Those are two different issues really. The request to defer are because there isn’t demand for the product. The engine thing appears to be a problem for th...

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by bigjku
Fri Oct 26, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: La Tribune: Several Future A330neo Operators Have Asked Airbus To Delay Deliveries
Replies: 93
Views: 16320

Re: La Tribune: Several Future A330neo Operators Have Asked Airbus To Delay Deliveries

The lessors are struggling to place their orders at viable lease rates and want to delay/cancel/convert. I think the direct sales to airlines are less of a problem. This. The lessors don’t want to take on frames they can’t make money on. The Iran order is done. The lessors don’t want the plane, at ...

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by bigjku
Thu Oct 25, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 3473
Views: 409001

Re: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018

Yep, with the MoM taking the higher part of the market, the 737 can focus on the shorter routes and Boeing is able to offer the better products for both missions, while Airbus has to stick with a mediocre compromise . :irked: Unnecessarily provocative, IMO! And anyway, often too simple by half. A.n...

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by bigjku
Thu Oct 25, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Belgian F-16 Replacement RFI To Be Issued Soon
Replies: 177
Views: 27331

Re: Belgian F-16 Replacement RFI To Be Issued Soon

Good deal for Belgium. Anything else would have been stupid.

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by bigjku
Thu Oct 25, 2018 3:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Q3 2018
Replies: 63
Views: 4822

Re: Boeing Q3 2018

Looking at it further I would say Boeing is now in the ballpark of takinging the block to zero within the current accounting block. I suspect it goes to zero in 2022-23 provided they can sustain delivery rates through that period. We should start seeing billion plus dollar reductions each quarter i...

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by bigjku
Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Q3 2018
Replies: 63
Views: 4822

Re: Boeing Q3 2018

Looking at it further I would say Boeing is now in the ballpark of takinging the block to zero within the current accounting block. I suspect it goes to zero in 2022-23 provided they can sustain delivery rates through that period. We should start seeing billion plus dollar reductions each quarter in...

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by bigjku
Thu Oct 25, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Q3 2018
Replies: 63
Views: 4822

Re: Boeing Q3 2018

Boeing's press release for the Q3 results: http://boeing.mediaroom.com/2018-10-24-Boeing-Reports-Solid-Third-Quarter-Reaffirms-Cash-and-Raises-Revenue-and-EPS-Guidance And the deferred costs for the 787: https://www.boeing.com/investors/accounting-considerations.page/ They claim that the Boeing Com...

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by bigjku
Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:09 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing Q3 2018
Replies: 63
Views: 4822

Re: Boeing Q3 2018

Earnings of $3.58 a share. Raised its full year 2018 earnings forecast to a range of $14.90 to $15.10, up from its previous guidance of $14.30 to $14.50. Delivered 190 commercial aircraft in the third quarter, bringing its total deliveries for the year to 568. They also reported expanded margins an...

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by bigjku
Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:36 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg
Replies: 171
Views: 26946

Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

LH has rejected the A330NEO twice. And it is again not short listed in the current tender, so I dare say LH does not want it - at any price. Yes, I've noticed the same thing. Yet over in the KE thread we have posters asserting A330neo is a better plane than 787, go figure. As an A330neo fan, I real...

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by bigjku
Wed Oct 24, 2018 11:35 am
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?
Replies: 140
Views: 19538

Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Just purely from a mathematical point of view, let's say they would make the 380-800 or -900 with a completely new wing (777X-style), how far off would we be from a potential TwinEngineOption? Meaning, how much additional thrust would we need from the most powerful engine today (or in 10 years time...

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by bigjku
Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:49 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg
Replies: 171
Views: 26946

Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

I think people who suggest just converting the A350 options may not be considering that those options are “out of the money” so to speak given recent developments. If 787 pricing has dropped as much as reported I wouldn’t expect many long-held option conversions but rather new RFP’s. It impacts opti...

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by bigjku
Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:16 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Airbus faces new jet delays at Hamburg plant - sources
Replies: 17
Views: 3891

Re: Airbus faces new jet delays at Hamburg plant - sources

Those over enthusiastic ramp ups have really backfired at several places. it's definitely backfired in the shortterm, but longterm it just makes sense. Boeing has like a 7 year 737max backlog, and Airbus' is even longer. I wouldn't be surprised if in a few years, once this ramp has been sorted out,...

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by bigjku
Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg
Replies: 171
Views: 26946

Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

I find it funny when people on here dismiss a plane because its size or range is not exactly the same as the aircraft it is replacing. For all you know the aircraft being replaced has been taking off well below MTOW. A smaller or shorter ranged replacement might actually be more suitable. This deci...

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by bigjku
Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:41 am
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg
Replies: 171
Views: 26946

Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

With only 61 A350's delivered by 30 Sept (about 7 per month), Airbus would seem to have a fair way to go to get to 156 (13 per month) in the near term. I think this has been discussed before on other threads, 13/month is at best for 11 months of the year. And they always seem to deliver more in the...

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by bigjku
Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:44 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg
Replies: 171
Views: 26946

Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

And don’t forget Boeing wants to increase the production of the B787 and therefore they have to sell a lot of planes They are going to 14 and from what I heard from someone could max out at 16 a month if sales supported it on the present footprint. Airbus really needs to find a way to get to 13 a m...

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by bigjku
Mon Oct 22, 2018 8:28 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg
Replies: 171
Views: 26946

Re: Lufthansa looking at buying 20 A350 or 787 according to Bloomberg

I would not say there is no way LH will ever order the 787. AFAIK they were already interested in the 787-10 once, long before it was launched officially. There is probably a good chance that the 787 can be had well cheaper than the A350 options they hold. The difference between rate 14 and rate 10...

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by bigjku
Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:03 am
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Netherlands to cancel 3 F-35s?
Replies: 19
Views: 4449

Re: Netherlands to cancel 3 F-35s?

In what way would a Gripen E be better suited to the Dutch over the F-35? price ;) The F35 is at another level compared to the latest Gripen. I was suspicious of the F35 for a while, but I'm not any more. The Gripen or Eurofighter or F-16 work out if you reduce the mission requirement to basically ...

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by bigjku
Fri Oct 19, 2018 11:58 pm
Forum: Travel, Polls & Preferences
Topic: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?
Replies: 140
Views: 19538

Re: Will we ever see an Airbus 380 stretch ?

Personalliy I think Airbus will wait with any A380NEO/stretch deciscion till Boeing has decided on the NMA for two reasons: 1 They will know where Boeing resources (financial, R&D etc.) will be committed too in the relevant period. 2 When knowing the NMA offering they can define the specificati...

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by bigjku
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:31 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Korean Air mulling widebody order
Replies: 68
Views: 13588

Re: Korean Air mulling widebody order

A350 would make sense as a 777-200 replacement and to help expand to smaller markets, while the 777X is a pretty good 777-300 replacement. I'm betting on a double order. If you really want to do fleet rationalization then the 787-9/10 and the 779 make the most sense by a pretty fair margin. You get...

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by bigjku
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:50 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst
Replies: 109
Views: 24238

Re: Etihad to cancel a "significant amount" of A350 Order according to Aviation Analyst

Things could turn out in a very interesting way. EK could end up picking up all of EY's A350 order and cancel their own LOI for 787s, if Airbus and Rolls Royce offer the deal EK cannot refuse. I won't be surprised if the EK's A380 "order at risk" report is just a smokescreen to hide a muc...

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by bigjku
Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:35 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: A400M Update
Replies: 881
Views: 119332

Re: A400M Update

Let me try to explain; if the requirements go up & you're the only deal out there, that helps. Let me try to explain, the US Army has a terrible history of developing new weapon systems, most programs collapse long before deployment. So if you read on a web site that the Army has finally decide...

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by bigjku
Tue Sep 25, 2018 7:40 pm
Forum: Military Aviation & Space Flight
Topic: Boeing to Build UH-1N Replacement in Philadelphia
Replies: 32
Views: 3088

Re: "Boeing MH-139" to replace UH-1N ...

I´m fine with that and I know it happens in many other fields too but I´m still scratching my head why societies in general fool themselves by somehow pretending it´s "home made" ... Afaics this is mostly limited to one nation. ( examples from elsewhere? ) How do you hold your worldview &...

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by bigjku
Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Civil Aviation
Topic: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018
Replies: 3473
Views: 409001

Re: Boeing 797 Discussion Thread - 2018

The above statements and manu others means we pretty much know what Boeing intends to build -pax,range,power requirement and indeed weight.Equally it is easy to see the intense competition such an aircraft has immediately above and below it. Therefore it strongly suggests that Boeing are not lookin...

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