In near earth orbit, human spaceflight depends on the progress of private interests in making space tourism available. Any other real (rather than government-created) market for human space flight depends on this happening first - because it is the only market big enough to drive costs down.
Outside of near earth orbit - human spaceflight depends on the progress of the Chinese space program. Real European, US or Russian efforts to go back to the moon or beyond will not happen unless the Chinese threaten to do it first. It all depends on competition and national pride, because that is the only reason for sending humans beyond earth orbit that could be seen to justify its current costs. This activity does have a scientific payoff. However, I am not aware of anyone who will say with a straight face that this payoff is worth its current cost - because that much money could pay for A LOT of other science on Earth or on robotic spacecraft.
There is only one way I can see that the Chinese space program will not drive developments. That is if private interests invest in space tourism and so RADICALLY lower the cost of sending and maintaining humans in space. Not only must they be able to do this, they must be able to do it in such a way as to be competitive with rapidly growing robotic space-flight capabilities. Only then will human spaceflight be a serious option for companies, people, or countries looking for something other than a boost to the ego.
.........To guard against misunderstanding..... I am not saying that human spaceflight has no scientific or practical value, I am just saying that its scientific and practical benefits come nowhere close to justifying its cost (yet). I don't mean to minimize what those who have given up their lives and efforts for our Space Program have achieved little. Nor do I intend to slam the intangible motives for human spaceflight - national pride, etc. Landing on the moon may have helped win the cold war - it was a great advertisement for freedom. But lets not kid ourselves and say it was worth it from a scientific or economic perspective... Ignoring reality in this way makes the road to true sustainable human spaceflight harder IMHO.....
SHORT....The only reason human spaceflight is done now at all is for its own sake, mostly. It has no real purpose to justify its cost yet. In that situation the ones most willing to push others to compete (Probably the Chinese) dictates how fast things develop. But hopefully the cost of human spaceflight will go down far enough so that it will be worth doing for reasons other than simply to say we are doing it. There may be all kinds of plans and speeches, but unless the Chinese or the private market make it possible, nothing of substance will be done. Its a gloomy picture but it is reality.