CHRISBA777ER
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How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Mon Oct 09, 2006 6:01 pm

What is their equipment like? I know they have a huge standing army, but whats their air force/army like? Do they have SSNs? Presume the majority is ex-Soviet equipment. Do they have modern Flankers etc?
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
Lumberton
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Mon Oct 09, 2006 9:17 pm

Who was it that said: "quantity has a quality of it's own" ? Last numbers I saw suggested they had over 1,000,000 plus infantry, plus the other services. Their reserves number in the millions. However, it is thought that they could mount an invasion of the south from a "stand still", i.e., without mobilizing the reserves. Presumbaly the SoKors would get some indication that it's coming, but that's not guaranteed.

From what people who are in a position to know have told me, all of Seoul is vulnerable to NoKor artillery fire, and this with dual-capable (i.e., chemical weapons) artillery rounds.

IMO, Kim Jong Il with a bomb is a disaster. An invasion of the South would be a worst disaster. The carnage would be on a scale not seen since the Rawanda, perhaps even worse.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
Venus6971
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Mon Oct 09, 2006 10:15 pm

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 1):
IMO, Kim Jong Il with a bomb is a disaster. An invasion of the South would be a worst disaster. The carnage would be on a scale not seen since the Rwanda, perhaps even worse.

The question is NK crazy enough to think they can win a nuclear war. If so it looks like Los Angeles will be the only place healthy for people of Korean heritage. Until the NK's develop a missile. This will probably spring a whole new arms race in East Asia, Japan might even think of nuking up for deterrence. Leftys are probably thinking we still don't need a nuclear defense shield.
I would help you but it is not in the contract
 
Lurch
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Mon Oct 09, 2006 11:48 pm

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/dprk/ <--North Korea"s military under a Magnifying glass!
 
Lumberton
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Mon Oct 09, 2006 11:50 pm

From the South Korean perspective, almost as bad as an invasion would be for the NoKor regime to collapse and leave them to sort out the mess. They are still mindful of the costs involved when the wall collapsed in Germany!
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
starrion
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Tue Oct 10, 2006 3:07 am

Oh please.

The DPRK collapsing would have a short term negative effect, but eliminating the threat of invasion and the need to maintain their military would be a positive effect. Not to mention ending the human cost of broken up families, and the ROK's having to watch their northern neighbors starve for the benefit of the deranged little tard that is their "Dear Leader".

A peaceful collapse of the DPRK is too much to hope for. If it was going to happen, it would have already.
Knowledge Replaces Fear
 
PADSpot
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Tue Oct 10, 2006 5:19 am

Just two words: Numbers and Rockets.

Numbers of totally intimidated, naive or uninformed soldiers, that would not know what hit them. And thousand of ballistic and artillery rockets that would turn much of South Korea into a moonscape. It would be hard to really win that war, because there's little one could without killing hundred thousands or even millions.

I think the only power that could quickly and thoroughly set an end to this regime is China. They could do it without inflicting such an enormous damage. Resistance would not be very intense ... would similar to Invasion of Kuwait by Iraq. NK situation would be desperate and hopeless from the first day on. No allies and no way out. And no reason to attack third countries. Chinese territory would be out of reach quickly ... finally everybody could well live with a North-Korean state modelled on the Chinese state system.
 
Lumberton
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Tue Oct 10, 2006 5:24 am

Quoting Starrion (Reply 5):
Oh please.

From articles I've read over the years. If I have time, I'll try to dig some up and post the links. Of course, no one is arguing that conflict would be preferable to reunification! However, the SoKors are mindful of the cost of reunification. It would be, well, staggering to say the least.

Quoting Starrion (Reply 5):
A peaceful collapse of the DPRK is too much to hope for. If it was going to happen, it would have already.

That was the great hope until recently. As we have seen throughout the 20th century through the first few years of this one, despots don't go easily. As I recall (and there may be more), the only marxist regime/state that "put it on the line" and held an election was Nicaragua in the '80s. Guess what happened?

There may have been an opportunity to bring Baby Kim to see reason and that would have been to cut off his supply of Johnny Walker Blue Label. Alas, he's probably got a good stock pile laid in!  Wink

[Edited 2006-10-09 22:27:25]
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
Lumberton
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Tue Oct 10, 2006 5:34 am

Here's one to get you started, Starrion. As you can see from this 2002 study (later updated in 2005), the World Bank estimates that Korean unification won't be done on the cheap:

Quote:
The World Bank sounds more realistic when it pegs the overall cost at 5-6 times South Korea's GDP, or $2-3 trillion. Noland notes that between $300-600 billion over ten years would be needed to raise North Korean income levels to 60 percent of the Southern average and to prevent ruinous mass migration from North to South.

http://samvak.tripod.com/pp167.html
Is this preferable to a conflict? Of course! But it is a real concern for the South Koreans.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
centrair
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Tue Oct 10, 2006 12:24 pm

The most desired would be the following:

Kim Jong Il dies and is replaced by his reportedly more "in-tune-with-the-world" and western educated son. (second son born to mistress and former North Korean Actress).

China comes in and encourages changes in policy that could keep a Socialist society, follow Juche, and open the nation to international trade and information. DPRK would have to keep the national pride high but not risk a drastic change.

If the economy grows enough and creates a positive face, the nation could eventually look at reunification over a 10 to 15 year period. The german reunification was quick. A DPRK and ROK reunification would have to be slow and well planned out. The Korean people have not been an independent unified nation since 1905.

(1910 a Korean royal proclamation announced the annexation by Japan and remained an oppressed colony until WWII.) After WWII, the US and Russia didn't really look at what to do about the Korean peninsula, but when the Soviet started moving in, the US quickly moved in. Russia got everything north of what is now the DMZ, the US controled everything south. This was the first step that eventually led to the Korean War. Kim Il Song asked Stalin for permission to "unify the nation". Stalin didn't care but said, "Okay...but you have to pay for your weapons". (The US gave South Koreans weapons for free...which one is communist/capitalist?) Kim built an army and pushed the US and South Koreans as far south as Pusan before a counter push pushed the North Koreans back to what would become the DMZ.

As for the capability of the DPRK military...
1.2 million active
5 million in reserve (not sure how many of those are volunteer or forced reserve)
There are reportedly tunnels under the DMZ allowing forces to infiltrate the South.
Uncountable number of landmines in DMZ
Enough missles aimed at Seoul to turn it into a moonscape.

But...
3,000,000 or more starving people who would probably put down guns (forced in their hands by the military) if offered a bowl of rice with god kimchi.
Hundreds of North Koreans sneak into China per year. (many disappear into the country and live their life...some are caught and sent back...some make their way through China to other nations like Mongolia)
Many more go to South Korea

Though the DPRK acts strong and is ready for a war at anytime, I think that people outside of Peongyang would like to see food on their table, heat in their stoves, and clothing rather than a gun or nuclear weapons.

[Edited 2006-10-10 05:29:01]
Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
connies4ever
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Tue Oct 10, 2006 6:59 pm

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 4):
From the South Korean perspective, almost as bad as an invasion would be for the NoKor regime to collapse and leave them to sort out the mess. They are still mindful of the costs involved when the wall collapsed in Germany!

Current issue of "The Atlantic" has a well-written piece by Robert Kaplan on this very subject. I think this is likelier than a war.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
Venus6971
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Tue Oct 10, 2006 10:17 pm

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200610/kaplan-korea

Good article here is a link for others to read. I think I rather have this scenario happen than have the million man army march toward Seoul. If that happened it would be massive death on both sides, with every type of weapon in the ROK, US military option being used. I wonder if those US hating South Korean students would be waiting with open arms for the DPRK Army. I think that attitude will subside after the first conventional/NBC Artillery barrage.
I would help you but it is not in the contract
 
Lumberton
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Tue Oct 10, 2006 11:10 pm

Thanks for the link, Venus6971. Here's a very revealing quote from this article:

Quote:
No official will say this out loud, but South Korea—along with every other country in the region—has little interest in reunification, unless it were to happen gradually over years or decades. The best outcome would be a South Korean protectorate in much of the North, officially under an international trusteeship, that would keep the two Koreas functionally separate for a significant period of time. This would allow each country time to prepare for a unified Korean state, without the attendant chaos.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
GDB
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Wed Oct 11, 2006 3:43 am

Very capable....of internal repression and taking much of the food aid, leaving most of the populace to literally starve.
They even make sure the well fed troops are in camera range of the border and on all those 'Kim's got a little penis' parades and events in the capital.
Since they are not stunted by hunger, like so many of the rest of the population.

But, all those 1000's of artillery tubes in range of Seoul.

For the US, there are no good military options.
You can bet the locations of WMD production and storage are not all well known, though in a straight fight, DPRK military capability would soon unravel, but not before massive civillian and very heavy US military casualties.
Even before the nuclear card is played, assuming they are deployable.

DPRK-the closest anyone has ever got to Orwell's '1984'.
 
Lumberton
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Wed Oct 11, 2006 5:28 am

Quoting GDB (Reply 13):
DPRK-the closest anyone has ever got to Orwell's '1984'.

Or 'Animal Farm, but the pigs didn't have access to Johnny Walker Blue Label, did they?

[Edited 2006-10-10 22:29:47]
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
starrion
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Wed Oct 11, 2006 5:36 am

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 8):
Here's one to get you started, Starrion. As you can see from this 2002 study (later updated in 2005), the World Bank estimates that Korean unification won't be done on the cheap:

Quote:
The World Bank sounds more realistic when it pegs the overall cost at 5-6 times South Korea's GDP, or $2-3 trillion. Noland notes that between $300-600 billion over ten years would be needed to raise North Korean income levels to 60 percent of the Southern average and to prevent ruinous mass migration from North to South.

I'm not disputing that the cost of salvaging the DPRK wouldn't be enormous, but if you asked the average ROK citizen what outcome they would prefer, I bet they would almost all jump at the chance to peacefully re-unite.

Besides, the ROK would hardly bear the cost alone. I bet if the DPRK collapsed and the ROK ended up with the responsibility, there would be plenty of foreign investment and AID that would gladly standup to right the 50 years of abuse that this population has endured.

After all, they can't give ALL the foreign aid to corrupt dictators.
Knowledge Replaces Fear
 
greasespot
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Wed Oct 11, 2006 5:52 am

Quoting Centrair (Reply 9):
3,000,000 or more starving people who would probably put down guns (forced in their hands by the military) if offered a bowl of rice with god kimchi.

Yeah just like the Iraqi's welcomed the American liberators....

Starving or not they have been brainwashed to think of the dear leader as a god......They wil fight hard and furious and it will be a blood bath for all.

GS
Sometimes all you can do is look them in the eye and ask " how much did your mom drink when she was pregnant with you?"
 
GDB
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Wed Oct 11, 2006 6:07 am

Greasport has a point.
Even the Warsaw Pact had it's share of dissidents-came we think of any from North Korea?

Imagine all your TV and radios were fixed to only receive government propagander programming.
DPRK is far more cut off from the outside world than the USSR ever was.

The few South Koreans who have managed to visit the North, find an almost parallel universe-one in which the North won the Korean War.
 
Thorny
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Wed Oct 11, 2006 6:24 am

Quoting Starrion (Reply 5):
A peaceful collapse of the DPRK is too much to hope for. If it was going to happen, it would have already.

I don't know... there are some who say Stalin was quietly offed by the KGB because he'd gone insane and started talking about first strikes with Soviet H-Bombs and the like. The same fate could befall Kim.

If Kim orders the use of his Bomb, will his Generals... knowing with certainty North Korea's fate from such a decision, blindly follow him, or just stage a coup, or worse?
 
broke
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Thu Oct 12, 2006 12:02 am

Even with a more rational leader in North Korea, we would still have to deal with the military hierarchy. The military has become a favored class and having them give up that status in favor of reduced tensions and an improved standard of living for the population as a whole could a different problem with the same outcomes.
 
cloudy
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Thu Oct 12, 2006 12:55 am

Quoting PADSpot (Reply 6):


I think the only power that could quickly and thoroughly set an end to this regime is China. They could do it without inflicting such an enormous damage. Resistance would not be very intense ... would similar to Invasion of Kuwait by Iraq. NK situation would be desperate and hopeless from the first day on. Noallies and no way out. And no reason to attack third countries. Chinese territory would be out of reach quickly ... finally everybody could well live with a North-Korean state modelled on the Chinese state system.

China values North Korea as a buffer state. They don't want a united Korea ontheir border, because they could be attacked from there. They are bound and determined to get Taiwan someday, and they will have more trouble doing that if they have a potential US-ally on their border. They also don't want a flood of refugees pounding at their door if the government colapses. They don't want to get dragged into a bloody and useless war over what happens to the corpse of North Korea if the regime falls, and they share our fear of those scum having nuclear weapons.

Its probably to much to hope for any kind of smooth transition for North Korea. The place has simply been too oppressed and too closed up for too long. That hellhole makes Cuba and the former East Germany look like model democracies.They don't have the kind of social and human capital that make a chinese-style boom possible. If the government collapses, we will see a repeat of what happened in Albania and Somalia - and it won't get much better for years. It will be a very poor country for decades to come no matter what happens. Maybe 20-30 years of hard work could bring them up to the level of the Phillipeans - and even that is pretty optomistic.

All in all, I doubt any of the major players hopes for anything better that the status quo. The nuclear situation is not as bad as it seems for several reasons.........

1. Kim will not be able to afford many nuclear weapons, and they will be all lower yield fission devices of questionable reliability. His conventional arsenal, particularily short range missiles and artillery, will still be the biggest threat.

2. The closed nature of North Korean society make it difficult for the regime to get the neccesary skills to make a long range missile that can carry a nuclear weapon - it is especially difficult for it to manufacture large numbers of them.Those it does obtain will not be reliable at all. Notice what happened in the last round of missile tests.

3. The guys on top have to know that the world will dispose of them somehow if they nuke anybody or sell nuclear weapons to anybody who then uses them.
 
Lumberton
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Thu Oct 12, 2006 1:41 am

Quoting Cloudy (Reply 20):
The nuclear situation is not as bad as it seems for several reasons.........
The guys on top have to know that the world will dispose of them somehow if they nuke anybody or sell nuclear weapons to anybody who then uses them.

Sorry, but I can't share your confidence. If they chose to sell the things, most likely the first indication we'll have is when a device is detonated in the U.S. or Europe. This is a regime that used (uses?) it's embassy to sell drugs!
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
UH60FtRucker
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Thu Oct 12, 2006 2:53 am

I think it's odd that the people who are strongly against a pre-emptive strike against North Korea, are those in the US Military.  scratchchin 

The DMZ is roughly 150mi(250km) long, and on that line, the North has amassed:

---------------------------------------

--10,000 artillery pieces. The vast majority are conventional shell and rocket projectiles that are fired by long range, high caliber tubes. The artillery corps has had 50yrs to zero-in their artillery guns to exact points in the South. And we're not just talking airbases and army camps... we're talking about the South Korean presidential palace, the home of the USFK (US Force Korea)general! Television stations, radio towers, cell towers, early warning radar sites, etc... 10,000 tubes opening up at once, could you imagine?

--They have something like 100,000 Spec-Op soldiers. It's well known that there are sleeper cells within South Korea. These cells live ordinary lives, but are trained to conduct sabotage missions during the opening phase of war. Some of these sleeper cells work as civilians on ROK and US bases.

--They have some ungodly amount of infantrymen stationed on the DMZ. We're talking like 30+ divisions, supported by like 10 armored divisions, a whole sh*t load of mobile mech brigades and not to mention something like 3m reservists in the rear.

--They have entire corps level force dedicated to the self defense of Pyongyang.

--They have well over 10,000 AAA/SAM platforms, which are integrated by hardened underground fiber optic lines of communication.

--They have a virtual wall around the coast. They have not forgot the humiliation at Inchon. They learned from it.

--And... most importantly... they have had 52 years to fine-tune their war plans.

---------------------------------------

Everyone likes to underestimate these guys. "Oh they're poor and starving, they won't last a week." or "Pfffff... our air force will go in and kick their ass, just like we did to Saddam." redflag  no 

Now I don't know how a war would go down... but I do know that it wouldn't be the slam dunk for the US/ROK/Japan, as some have suggested. There's a joke in the US Army:

Private Snuffy: "Hey Sarg, why are American soldiers still in Korea?"
Sarg: "Well Snuffy, we're a speed bump."

As twisted as that sounds, it's true. In the event of a war, the 25,000 US soldiers in Korea have some disgusting life expectancy rate, something like 2 days. They are there to die and slow the North down, while hopefully we can get out act together and rush reinforcements.

-UH60
Your men have to follow your orders. They don't have to go to your funeral.
 
Gary2880
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Thu Oct 12, 2006 3:37 am

Quoting UH60FtRucker (Reply 22):

Informative post, nice to see a situation not being under estimated for a change in favour of the 'we rule, lets kick ass!!!' attitude by some.

I knew the reason nothing has been done about NK is because they would hand out a considerable arse kicking to the person that tried. but I'm surprised to hear they are that well off.

If the north has the ability to kill 25,000 American soldiers in 2 days and could wipe out a good chunk of south korea in a few minutes. I'm surprised they haven't done so already. If they can do all that i would guess the only reason to make a nuke would be to flog it.

I would guess Kim likes being leader more than inevitable weapon of mass destruction being shoved up his backside as the result of an invasion.
Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel :- Samuel Johnson
 
UH60FtRucker
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Thu Oct 12, 2006 4:32 am

Quoting Gary2880 (Reply 23):
If the north has the ability to kill 25,000 American soldiers in 2 days and could wipe out a good chunk of south korea in a few minutes. I'm surprised they haven't done so already. If they can do all that i would guess the only reason to make a nuke would be to flog it.

What I described above was in regards to only the North... US and ROK forces are no paper tigers, I assure you.

Within the military, the main objection is the tremendous loss of life on both sides. And it begs the question, is the aftermath of a war worth the trouble for the aggressor?

Play the scenario out...

The ROK army is probably in the top 5 best trained armies in the world. I pointed out that the KPA has had 53yrs to perfect their invasion plan, well the ROKs have spent those 53yrs perfecting their defensive lines. The avenues of attack are limited, and any invasion scenario has been played out. We know roughly how the first 48hrs will go down.

The invasion would probably be initiated by both a massive artillery barrage and simultaneous sabotage attacks against "soft" targets by North Korean operatives living in the South. The North relies heavily on Soviet-era military tactics, so we can assume the Alpha level armored and infantry brigades will attempt to make a swift and blunt push into the south. Seoul is only about 40miles south of the DMZ, and will be a major objective for the North. But urban fighting is brutal and the ROK army wouldn't give the city up without a massive fight.

A defensive position offers unique advantages over the offensive invader. Bridges, highways, roads and railways can be demolished or blocked to slow an invasion. The north suffers from a substandard logistical supply line. Any war would need to be swift, the longer it takes, the more likely they would encounter fuel, food and ammo shortages.

And while US forces are both smaller than they have been for quite some time, and tied up in two wars, the US could still deploy numerous divisions that are currently stateside. The key to this, is time. Any type of massive mobilization would require time, and would depend on how far the North has penetrated into the South.

You simply cannot count on European involvement, at least on any meaningful scale. It is a 13,000 mile voyage by sea from England to S.Korea (using the Suez canal). Considering it was a major obstacle for England to project power 8,000 miles away during the Falklands war, it's not unreasonable to believe both France and England would have difficulty deploying a carrier force to Korea. Europe simply does not have the Asian infrastructure to support a massive deployment of military force.

And while involvement of Japan is probable, the involvement of China is uncertain. It would certainly depend on the course the war took, and the level of fierceness both the ROK and US forces fought with. But what is more likely, is China using the distraction of a war in Korea, to make a move against Taiwan. It would certainly be the best moment do so. The US 7th Fleet would be tied up with Korea, and would be unable to sail down the Straight like it did in under President Clinton in '99.

The whole point is, any scenario of war with Korea is full of uncertainties. But what is certain, the lost of life would be numbing. South Korean civilians would suffer greatly. And the idea of losing most of the US 2nd ID is very possible, because they'd definitely fight the invasion down to the last man. And lastly - what if the war stalls? North Korea may only have a few nuclear weapons, but they definitely have a huge stockpile of chemical weapons which are home grown. And what about China? Would they stay out of it? Would they move against Taiwan.

Only fools want a war in Korea. And only fools think it's a slam dunk we could win.

-UH60
Your men have to follow your orders. They don't have to go to your funeral.
 
Gary2880
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Thu Oct 12, 2006 5:21 am

Thanking, however,

Quoting UH60FtRucker (Reply 24):
It is a 13,000 mile voyage by sea from England to S.Korea (using the Suez canal). Considering it was a major obstacle for England to project power 8,000 miles away during the Falklands war, it's not unreasonable to believe both France and England would have difficulty deploying a carrier force to Korea. Europe simply does not have the Asian infrastructure to support a massive deployment of military force.

For future reference.

in the context, England = Britain**

British armed forces, not English. Smile
Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel :- Samuel Johnson
 
UH60FtRucker
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Thu Oct 12, 2006 6:17 am

Quoting Gary2880 (Reply 25):
For future reference.

in the context, England = Britain**

British armed forces, not English.

Duly noted, sir.  Smile

-UH60
Your men have to follow your orders. They don't have to go to your funeral.
 
connies4ever
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Thu Oct 12, 2006 7:15 am

Quoting UH60FtRucker (Reply 24):
And while involvement of Japan is probable, the involvement of China is uncertain. It would certainly depend on the course the war took, and the level of fierceness both the ROK and US forces fought with. But what is more likely, is China using the distraction of a war in Korea, to make a move against Taiwan. It would certainly be the best moment do so. The US 7th Fleet would be tied up with Korea, and would be unable to sail down the Straight like it did in under President Clinton in '99.

The whole point is, any scenario of war with Korea is full of uncertainties. But what is certain, the lost of life would be numbing. South Korean civilians would suffer greatly. And the idea of losing most of the US 2nd ID is very possible, because they'd definitely fight the invasion down to the last man. And lastly - what if the war stalls? North Korea may only have a few nuclear weapons, but they definitely have a huge stockpile of chemical weapons which are home grown. And what about China? Would they stay out of it? Would they move against Taiwan.

Only fools want a war in Korea. And only fools think it's a slam dunk we could win.


Agree whole heartedly with your strategic assessment. A war on the peninsula could be spun in several ways by China, and I am sure they have a large cohort of staff officers gaming it out:

-- do nothing;
-- enter DPRK for 'humanitarian reasons' only;
-- actively assist ROK/US forces in subduing a loose cannon (no pun),
which would inevitably lead to the immediately above point;
-- prevent Japan from entering the fray;
-- sieze Taiwan (also likely no pushover for mainland forces) while
American forces are tied down.

What gives them the max advantage ?

Also, would Putin's crew take an active interest in the fate of the DPRK ?

Lots to ponder.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
Lumberton
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Thu Oct 12, 2006 8:46 am

Quoting UH60FtRucker (Reply 24):
Only fools want a war in Korea. And only fools think it's a slam dunk we could win.

Agreed. I have yet to meet anyone, of any political persuasion, who thinks that a war on the Korean penninsula would NOT be a catastrophe. There really are no good scenarios. If the Baby Kim regime is threatened, then it could very well go nuclear.

I'm not sure there are any good options here but to continue to isolate North Korea.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
lehpron
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Thu Oct 12, 2006 2:29 pm

Pardon the fact that I don't already know, how is anyone so sure NK will attack the US or our interests in other countries? An please, I don't care what you think, did whatever-his-name ever say something like "I will attack once I get to"?
The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
 
greasespot
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Thu Oct 12, 2006 8:05 pm

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 28):
I have yet to meet anyone, of any political persuasion, who thinks that a war on the Korean penninsula would NOT be a catastrophe.

Met in person no....But there are a bunch on this thread who think that way.

I know someone who went to NK. She laughed at all the huge higways and no cars. They were not built for cars but to move massive amounts of military hardware.

Would the USA get their ass kicked in NK...Probably not only becasue it would become a war of attrition and the USA has the greatest war support industries that are free from attack. The NKwould not be able to launch much of an attack on the USA. But would the USA be willing to fight that war of attrition? Would the World?

There are over 3000 killed in Iraq...How would the population feel if there were 20 000 killed?

GS
Sometimes all you can do is look them in the eye and ask " how much did your mom drink when she was pregnant with you?"
 
Lumberton
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Thu Oct 12, 2006 9:37 pm

Quoting Greasespot (Reply 30):
Met in person no....But there are a bunch on this thread who think that way.

 Confused
I just re-read the thread and can't find anyone advocating war on the penninsula.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
dl021
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Thu Oct 12, 2006 9:46 pm

Quoting Starrion (Reply 5):
The DPRK collapsing would have a short term negative effect

Short term? Perhaps in terms of overall history. It would be decades before they finished rebuilding that house.

Quoting PADSpot (Reply 6):
I think the only power that could quickly and thoroughly set an end to this regime is China. They could do it without inflicting such an enormous damage. Resistance would not be very intense ... would similar to Invasion of Kuwait by Iraq

I think you're being a little optimistic.

Quoting PADSpot (Reply 6):
finally everybody could well live with a North-Korean state modelled on the Chinese state system.

Live well? Compared to what? If you mean live under a different oppressive system but with more food...then I guess so.

Quoting Centrair (Reply 9):
Kim built an army and pushed the US and South Koreans as far south as Pusan before a counter push pushed the North Koreans back to what would become the DMZ.

Not exactly. The Soviets were in favor of pushing the westerners out of Korea, especially since MacA had kept them almost totally out of Japan (notice no split of Japan like in Europe) and supplied the Koreans with weapons and troops, and there's no evidence that they Koreans had to pay cash for these things. They received vast quantities of WWII surplus equipment on similar terms to lend-lease for accounting purposes, but I don't think much in the way of payment went. That's not even counting the Soviet troops and airmen that went over there to operate the more sophisticated systems.
The NKs indeed pushed to the Pusan perimeter, but the counterattack pushed them back to the Yalu river and it was the Chinese that invaded and pushed the UN forces back to a stalemate at what is currently the DMZ. The DPRK was beaten....the PRC saved their asses in order to keep a buffer between them and the west......what I think they foresaw as democracy, which has always been the biggest threat to their system.
Is my Pan Am ticket to the moon still good?
 
PADSpot
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Thu Oct 12, 2006 11:09 pm

Quoting Cloudy (Reply 20):
They don't want a united Korea ontheir border, because they could be attacked from there.

Nah, just think 10-20 years ahead. China will be the most powerful country on this planet at that time. Korea would be a threat to China as Mexico is today to the US. None in fact.

Quoting Cloudy (Reply 20):
They are bound and determined to get Taiwan someday, and they will have more trouble doing that if they have a potential US-ally on their border

Basically correct, but if the US enters a potential China-Taiwan was they would do it by directly defending Taiwan at and around Taiwan. The Korean government has itself no interest in becoming dragged into a Chinese war. They would be happy and occupied with caring for thier northern brothers and sisters. They just couldn't afford a war. The German reunification costed about 1,5 trillion Euros so far and at the time it happened Germany was the third richest country in the world. Now imagine what kind of burden it would be for South Korea.

Quoting Cloudy (Reply 20):
They also don't want a flood of refugees pounding at their door if the government colapses.

Maybe their biggest concern ...

Quoting Cloudy (Reply 20):
They don't want to get dragged into a bloody and useless war over what happens to the corpse of North Korea if the regime falls, and they share our fear of those scum having nuclear weapons.

Now you are looking through westernized glasses. Their is no opposition in China that could criticize a potential war as bloody or useless nor complain about horrendous casualties. Conducting war is far easier for an oppressive state than for a democracy. And with NK acting more and more irrational and single-handed it becomes more and more a thread to China itself rather than an ally.

Quoting Cloudy (Reply 20):
If the government collapses, we will see a repeat of what happened in Albania and Somalia - and it won't get much better for years.

Nope, certainly not. That doesn't fit into the east-asian way of thinking and culture. There is no tribal culture and conflict of religions like in Somalia and they don't know the concept of self administering family clans and vendettas that paved the way for anarchy in Albania in the late 90s.

Quoting Cloudy (Reply 20):
It will be a very poor country for decades to come no matter what happens. Maybe 20-30 years of hard work could bring them up to the level of the Phillipeans - and even that is pretty optomistic.

You are correct; it will be very por for years, but 20-30 years is a long time. Do you know how states like South Korea or Vietnam looked like 20 years ago ... not much different from NK as it is today. And BTW: Life on the Philippines isn't all that bad ... those are happy folks down there.

Quoting DL021 (Reply 32):
I think you're being a little optimistic.

All that remains in desperate situations is optimism, right?

Quoting DL021 (Reply 32):
Live well? Compared to what? If you mean live under a different oppressive system but with more food...then I guess so.

Yes, getting from 2% living standard to lets say 20% is an improvement of 1000%! I don't think North Koreans are dreaming of having two big SUVs parked on the nice gateway of a One-Million-Dollar country house ... They dream of freedom, food, basic health-care and infrastructure.
 
GDB
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Fri Oct 13, 2006 6:05 am

Agreed that a new Korean war would be short, sharp and utterly devastating even without WMD's.
So unlike the UN operation of 1950-53, no extra US contribution-in the 1950-53 war many nations sent troops, the UK had many 1000's fighting there, often in very extensive and bloody combat.

The only way such a new conflict could likely kick off, would be a desperate DPRK, with a regime near to collapse, moving south.
 
bringiton
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Fri Oct 13, 2006 6:20 am

The problem is with there SPECIAL forces and with the artillery shells , Seole is within range of their artillery shells and the area is 25% of the population of SOKO and is responsible for 50% GDP however it is pretty well guarded , any ground invasion would be crushed with the Soko and US forces present who are better trained , better equipled and better fed then their counterparts , also they enjoy almost total Air superiority and naval strike capability . Expect a total C2C meltdown effort in FDOW from naval assets , B-2's and F-117's and B-1's flying continues coverage from Guam,CONUS,and SOKO . The F-15E's,F-16's,A-50's (future) and F-18E/F's will be used for Artillery hunting and this would involve enourmous recources in FDOW as to minimize the effect - the NOKO artillery although in large ammounts is more or less obsolete and isnt protected that well ( no head coverage) and USAF and soko have been going through Satelite images , sensor and intel on almost regular basis to see where they are and plot and coordinate attacks . The proble would arise would be if NOKO starts using Chemical Shells for those artillery peices !! Most of their AF would be levelled from FDOW tomohawk strike alona and expect the SOKO F-16's and USAF f-16's with JDAM's and LGB's aswell as other weapons to take care of mass convoys for resupply . With air power the USAF/Soko can safely isolate the main attack party from being resupplied and the question only remains how effectivly can they deal witht he thousands of Artillery peices placed near the DMZ to prevent damage .
 
LimaNiner
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Sat Oct 14, 2006 2:22 pm

Maybe I'm being naive, but if DPRK launched an invasion of South Korea, I wouldn't be surprised if the U.S. launched nuke-armed bombers within the first 12-24 hours. You'd have to write off the 25,000 Americans in arms, and the millions of South Koreans, who would die in such a first strike...

I wouldn't be surprised to hear GWB announce to Kim Jong-Il that he will nuke one North Korean military after the first half hour, 2 bases after another half hour, 4 bases after another half hour, ... etc., and then Pyongyang, until North Korea surrenders unconditionally -- and follow through before China can stop him.
 
Lumberton
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Sat Oct 14, 2006 10:02 pm

Quoting LimaNiner (Reply 36):
wouldn't be surprised to hear GWB announce to Kim Jong-Il that he will nuke one North Korean military

I don't think that will happen. The nuclear threshold won't be crossed unless Baby Kim pops one off first, and I'm not even sure that would do it if he avoids U.S. troops.

To put some perspective on this, when Jimmy Carter was president in the late '70s, he stated publically that if North Korea were to start a war, their society as they knew it, would be irrevocably changed. To what was he referring?
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
AirRyan
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Sun Oct 15, 2006 6:00 am

For those of you all thinking that the NoKo's would give the West a run for their money in a military engagement are simply buying into the liberal media hype assuming of course that Russia and China don't help out NoKo again like they did last time. The war in Iraq was won from a military objective years ago, n odoubt Iran and others took note of how fast the US military advanced hundreds of miles to Baghdad; take out the hippie political correctness and those terrorist panzies would be ousted in a month (quick and decisive brute force is all these third world religous zealots understand so that is how you have to deal with them.)

Our current US armed forces would annilhate the NoKo's and in a matter of weeks would be ousting Kim Jong Il from Pyongyang. The only reason NATO and the US in particular did not do it in the early 50's was because of those anti-American Chinese who kept resupplying the NoKo's when they had their @sses handed to them: when will people wake up and realize that China and Russia are NOT our friends to the west?

NoKo has no Navy - a simple naval blockade and eventual aerial embargo once aerial supremacy is achieved (weeks if not days) and NoKo is a NoGo: no gas, no food, no resupply of munitions and equipment. Two modern CVBG's on each side of the pennisula in the Sea of Japan and the Yellow Sea, Air Force assets from the South, Japan, and even Guam - B-2, F-117's, A-10's, F-15E/K's, and of course B-52's. The Korean winter would hinder our ground forces more so than an NoKo ground forces - I think we proved throughout the cold war that numbers do not trump quality when we are talking about Western technology, (WWII Germany would have prevailed had they not had their supplies cut in the European theater when we talk about Tiger/Panther panzer's compared to US Sherman tanks.)

If China simply opened up their border to NoKo civilians Kim Jong wiould lose his power, China is the key here the only reason (they and Russia simply do not want an entire democratic and productive Korean penninsula with freindly ties to the West) why Kim is still in power; now that he threatens to hinder Russian/Chinese interests do they get involved as they have with the recent UN security council resolutions. The last thing China wants is a nuclear armed South Korea, Japan, or even worse yet - Taiwan.

 
Boeing4ever
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Sun Oct 15, 2006 6:29 am

No one is saying the DPRK would give us a run for their money. You are quite correct that if the shit hits the fan, they will be annihalated as a regime in due order.

However, this is a war that has been frozen in time for over 50 years...and in that time there has been a crude buildup of artillery and weaponry on both sides of the DMZ. Indeed, the DPRK without direct Chinese or Russian intervention has no hope of victory, but that's not the point.

Seoul is targeted by thousands of artillery pieces...and even with our superior air power, we simply cannot knock out such a quantity before they level unimaginable devastation on the ROK capitol. Worse, the South Koreans thought it bright to have such a populous city that's the source of a sizeable chunk of their GDP placed this close to a war zone.

When the DPRK attacks, it will be when they realize they cannot survive as a regime...it won't matter to them. But they will be able to drag the southern half of the peninsula down into the stone age with them.

People don't realize that this is an International hostage situation. Jong Il is ready to mow down as many innocents in South Korea or Japan as possible in an "if I'm going down I'm taking you with me mentality".

While you are quite correct that the DPRK stands no chance, the war nonetheless will be a short, yet cataclysmic event wreaking utter devastation on the Korean Peninsula.

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cloudy
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Sun Oct 15, 2006 6:47 am

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 38):
The last thing China wants is a nuclear armed South Korea, Japan, or even worse yet - Taiwan.

I would be very surprised if Taiwan didn't already have nuclear weapons or a way to get them quickly. They certainly have the know how to do it.
 
Lumberton
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Sun Oct 15, 2006 7:50 am

Quoting Cloudy (Reply 40):
I would be very surprised if Taiwan didn't already have nuclear weapons or a way to get them quickly. They certainly have the know how to do it.

AFAIK, they may have been a "shadow" participant in the South African program a while back. Who knows?
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
Devilfish
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Sun Oct 15, 2006 8:31 am

Quoting Centrair (Reply 9):
The most desired would be the following:
Kim Jong Il dies and is replaced by his reportedly more "in-tune-with-the-world" and western educated son. (second son born to mistress and former North Korean Actress).

Is the other son turning out to be KJI III?

Quoting Cloudy (Reply 20):
Maybe 20-30 years of hard work could bring them up to the level of the Phillipeans - and even that is pretty optomistic.

Saddens me to see my country referred to in this light, but that is the hard truth.

Quoting PADSpot (Reply 33):
And BTW: Life on the Philippines isn't all that bad ... those are happy folks down there.

Yes, we still manage to smile despite the hardships.

Quoting PADSpot (Reply 33):
Quoting Cloudy (Reply 20):
They are bound and determined to get Taiwan someday, and they will have more trouble doing that if they have a potential US-ally on their border

Basically correct, but if the US enters a potential China-Taiwan was they would do it by directly defending Taiwan at and around Taiwan.

And that could very easily affect those immediately south of them. The Philippines' northernmost islets are closer to Taiwan than Luzon. China had constructed a garrison on the Spratlys, and I'm not sure if those were only merchants being smuggled into Manila's Chinatown.
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
AirRyan
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Sun Oct 15, 2006 9:16 am

Quoting Boeing4ever (Reply 39):
Seoul is targeted by thousands of artillery pieces...and even with our superior air power, we simply cannot knock out such a quantity before they level unimaginable devastation on the ROK capitol. Worse, the South Koreans thought it bright to have such a populous city that's the source of a sizeable chunk of their GDP placed this close to a war zone.

Cut off the communications and supplies to the border forces and they will surrender or die trying. The only thing going for the NoKo's would be to hide in their mountain bunkers and hope they don't get spotted; not exactly a recipe for any military achievements.

Quoting Boeing4ever (Reply 39):
When the DPRK attacks, it will be when they realize they cannot survive as a regime...it won't matter to them. But they will be able to drag the southern half of the peninsula down into the stone age with them.

It would take more than artillery to turn the rest of South Korea into the stone age, and after a week or so at the most I would wager the NoKo border forces would be dead, captured, or surrendered.

Quoting Boeing4ever (Reply 39):
People don't realize that this is an International hostage situation. Jong Il is ready to mow down as many innocents in South Korea or Japan as possible in an "if I'm going down I'm taking you with me mentality".

Kim Jong Il throws a nuke at anyone (Seoul, Japan, anywhere) and the US nukes Pyongyang clear and concise. Let's face it, the North is so ravaged it would be hard to tell if a nuke hit anyways and we certainly have had to face the nuclear/atomic weapon decision before, so minus the hippie libs taking over the white house/senate/house Kim shouldn't begin to think he can strategize with any nukes.

Quoting Boeing4ever (Reply 39):
While you are quite correct that the DPRK stands no chance, the war nonetheless will be a short, yet cataclysmic event wreaking utter devastation on the Korean Peninsula

Goes to show you just how great a strategy of appeasement really is - Jimmy Karter and his buddy Bill Klinton really think that you can appease your enemies but history shows that your only sweeping dirt under the rug and eventually you will have to step up and face the piper.
 
ebj1248650
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Sun Oct 15, 2006 10:39 am

Quoting UH60FtRucker (Reply 24):
The whole point is, any scenario of war with Korea is full of uncertainties. But what is certain, the lost of life would be numbing. South Korean civilians would suffer greatly. And the idea of losing most of the US 2nd ID is very possible, because they'd definitely fight the invasion down to the last man. And lastly - what if the war stalls? North Korea may only have a few nuclear weapons, but they definitely have a huge stockpile of chemical weapons which are home grown. And what about China? Would they stay out of it? Would they move against Taiwan.

Only fools want a war in Korea. And only fools think it's a slam dunk we could win.

Much has been said about infantry numbers, chemical weapons, rockets and artillery, but what affect would the North Korean Air Force have in a war between the north and the south? Is it as well trained? Is it well equipped? Is it large enough to face off with the South Korean AF and the USAF in Korea?
Dare to dream; dream big!
 
bringiton
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Sun Oct 15, 2006 11:04 am

Quoting EBJ1248650 (Reply 44):

Much has been said about infantry numbers, chemical weapons, rockets and artillery, but what affect would the North Korean Air Force have in a war between the north and the south? Is it as well trained? Is it well equipped? Is it large enough to face off with the South Korean AF and the USAF in Korea?

It isnt all that well equiped AAMOF i dont think that unless they attack first their AF would even survive a Tomohawk , B-2+F-22 Kick the door down attack , most of the radar and monitoring sites will go Bingo aswell , expect the heavies to come in almost immediately !! As far as the ground forces is concerned if they do anything conventional then scene would be far more devastating then the "highway of death" that was seen in 91 !! If they move(with their armed convoys) they will die , only option for them would be to use their Special ops and large artillery presence to do as much damage before they are picked up and taken care of ! The USAF monitors the DMZ and artillery surrounding it 24/7 and has been doing it since years , they have a very good idea where the arty's are located and most likely have a target list that is bigger then the one they had in IRAQ ( those big thick books that get send to Aircraft carriers and USAF ops people (PAC command) every time a war breaks ) , imagine a B-2 working with total control , tanker support and upwards of 70 SDB's ( thats 60 targets atleast) per aircraft , B-52's with the smart racks and as many or more SDB's and ditto with the B-1's , imagine F-15E's with SDB/s , JDAM's for time critical targeting and F-22's along withB-2's taking care of the C2C network it would be a whole lot of carnage relativly quickly!! Expect power to be out , communications to be jammed and larger supply routes to be cut of almost immediately !!! We all know how those old sovt. styled tactics survive a complete C2C meltdown !! I'd give Noko about a 10-15 hr. artyy at 50 capacity with a total destruction ( total being 90% ) within 48-72 hours !!!
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Sun Oct 15, 2006 12:27 pm

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 37):
I don't think that will happen. The nuclear threshold won't be crossed unless Baby Kim pops one off first, and I'm not even sure that would do it if he avoids U.S. troops.

Only if he avoids people altogether, such as a burst over the ocean. Any DPRK strike against South Korea, Japan or anything other than China, would provoke a US response. I don't see it as being optional. The US would act citing authority granted under the UN Security Council Resolutions 82, 83 and 84. The United Nations Command in Korea still exists...and it provides an umbrella of legality for the US to act.
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
PADSpot
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Sun Oct 15, 2006 5:19 pm

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 38):
For those of you all thinking that the NoKo's would give the West a run for their money in a military engagement are simply buying into the liberal media hype assuming of course that Russia and China don't help out NoKo again like they did last time. The war in Iraq was won from a military objective years ago, n odoubt Iran and others took note of how fast the US military advanced hundreds of miles to Baghdad; take out the hippie political correctness and those terrorist panzies would be ousted in a month (quick and decisive brute force is all these third world religous zealots understand so that is how you have to deal with them.)

Our current US armed forces would annilhate the NoKo's and in a matter of weeks would be ousting Kim Jong Il from Pyongyang. The only reason NATO and the US in particular did not do it in the early 50's was because of those anti-American Chinese who kept resupplying the NoKo's when they had their @sses handed to them: when will people wake up and realize that China and Russia are NOT our friends to the west?

NoKo has no Navy - a simple naval blockade and eventual aerial embargo once aerial supremacy is achieved (weeks if not days) and NoKo is a NoGo: no gas, no food, no resupply of munitions and equipment. Two modern CVBG's on each side of the pennisula in the Sea of Japan and the Yellow Sea, Air Force assets from the South, Japan, and even Guam - B-2, F-117's, A-10's, F-15E/K's, and of course B-52's. The Korean winter would hinder our ground forces more so than an NoKo ground forces - I think we proved throughout the cold war that numbers do not trump quality when we are talking about Western technology, (WWII Germany would have prevailed had they not had their supplies cut in the European theater when we talk about Tiger/Panther panzer's compared to US Sherman tanks.)

If China simply opened up their border to NoKo civilians Kim Jong wiould lose his power, China is the key here the only reason (they and Russia simply do not want an entire democratic and productive Korean penninsula with freindly ties to the West) why Kim is still in power; now that he threatens to hinder Russian/Chinese interests do they get involved as they have with the recent UN security council resolutions. The last thing China wants is a nuclear armed South Korea, Japan, or even worse yet - Taiwan.

Woow. A genuine AirRyan pamphlet. You've have been letting us wait for quite a while now, but this is really great. The line between polemics and satire and non-sense is so extremely thin and each time I wonder how you are able to balance on it.

You should instantly apply at the Tonight Show as an editor or even better: As a sidekick! I'll be your first and most allegiant spectator!

Yours Sincerely,
PADSpot

[Edited 2006-10-15 10:25:32]
 
Lumberton
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Sun Oct 15, 2006 8:45 pm

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 46):
Only if he avoids people altogether, such as a burst over the ocean. Any DPRK strike against South Korea, Japan or anything other than China, would provoke a US response. I don't see it as being optional. The US would act citing authority granted under the UN Security Council Resolutions 82, 83 and 84. The United Nations Command in Korea still exists...and it provides an umbrella of legality for the US to act.

We will have to agree that we disagree here. Any response must have not only the tacit, but public approval of South Korea, Japan, and at least the tacit approval of China. After all, how would we feel if Russia detonated a nuke in the Western Hemisphere? The political hand wringing would be beyond belief and the U.S. can not afford to act unilaterally WRT crossing the nuclear threash hold. Of course, this does not apply to a direct attack on U.S. soil, like Guam or Alaska. Besides, tit-for-tat nuclear exchanges would be horiffic. If U.S. troops aren't targeted, any President would have difficulty making the case IMO.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
Boeing4ever
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RE: How Capable Is The North Korean Military?

Mon Oct 16, 2006 4:09 am

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 43):
Cut off the communications and supplies to the border forces and they will surrender or die trying. The only thing going for the NoKo's would be to hide in their mountain bunkers and hope they don't get spotted; not exactly a recipe for any military achievements.

The thing is, a military action will more than likely start with the DPRK firing the first shots. That's a lot of artillery going off in short order, faster than any Combined Forces response. While preserverence and the eventual retaliatory cut off of comm links and supplies will win the day, the North will still do tremendous damage to Seoul...

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 43):
It would take more than artillery to turn the rest of South Korea into the stone age, and after a week or so at the most I would wager the NoKo border forces would be dead, captured, or surrendered.

After a week yes...and within' that time the DPRK will bring in its reserves. They don't care about their own personal preservation at this point...much like Kamikazae pilots who did harsh damage to US ships in the Pacific Theatre. And still, unless we can instantly wipe out 90% that border force (I'm talking within the first 10 hours), the center of the ROK's economy will still take a beating.

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 43):
Kim Jong Il throws a nuke at anyone (Seoul, Japan, anywhere) and the US nukes Pyongyang clear and concise. Let's face it, the North is so ravaged it would be hard to tell if a nuke hit anyways and we certainly have had to face the nuclear/atomic weapon decision before, so minus the hippie libs taking over the white house/senate/house Kim shouldn't begin to think he can strategize with any nukes.

That's the point...Jong Il at such a point knows the end is near...

Indeed, Pyongyang gets nuked, but the DPRK objective of hurtling a nuke at Seoul, Japan, anywhere has been accomplished...ie we paid a price of taking them down. Again, think "If I'm going down I'm taking you with me".

Besides, as already stated, US troops or territory would have to be hit by a nuke for the US to pop one off over Pyongyang...South Korea would object to such a move...should a war happen, despite the enormous costs, they have an interest in seeing the peninsula brought together under the flag of the ROK. And I'm sure they would prefer not to have a nuclear wasteland to inherit.

Quoting AirRyan (Reply 43):
Goes to show you just how great a strategy of appeasement really is - Jimmy Karter and his buddy Bill Klinton really think that you can appease your enemies but history shows that your only sweeping dirt under the rug and eventually you will have to step up and face the piper.

This unfortunately raises a good point. Without a formal armistace in place, what was the world to expect? This is a war on pause, and the only way to end it is to push play...

A nightmare scenario.

There will be no Korean War 2. We haven't finished the first one yet.

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