AerospaceFan
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Orion 13 Might Be First Manned Return To Moon

Fri Oct 27, 2006 3:32 pm

What is it with NASA and the number 13?

We all know that Apollo 13 was a near-disaster for the space program in which the lives of three astronauts were placed in peril by a catastrophic vehicular failure in Earth orbit.

According to a recent report, this fact has not deterred NASA from assigning the role of returning man to the Moon to the 13th mission of Orion. Moreover, it is scheduled to take place -- yes -- thirteen years from now.

See:

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/content/?cid=4859
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ptrjong
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RE: Orion 13 Might Be First Manned Return To Moon

Fri Oct 27, 2006 5:44 pm

Quoting AerospaceFan (Thread starter):
Moreover, it is scheduled to take place -- yes -- thirteen years from now.

Shocking find.  Wink

Why are so many people, especially in America it seems, into numerology?  Confused

Peter
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RAPCON
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RE: Orion 13 Might Be First Manned Return To Moon

Fri Oct 27, 2006 9:15 pm

Quoting Ptrjong (Reply 1):
Why are so many people, especially in America it seems, into numerology?

Dude, you must be psychic! Check out this article from today's Washington Post:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...le/2006/10/26/AR2006102601597.html
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AerospaceFan
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RE: Orion 13 Might Be First Manned Return To Moon

Sat Oct 28, 2006 12:58 am

It's just weird, that's all.

Also, thirteen is considered unlucky sometimes because of the association of Judas with that number.

Please see, e.g.,

http://www.ibri.org/Papers/Judas/GospelofJudas.html
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ptrjong
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RE: Orion 13 Might Be First Manned Return To Moon

Sat Oct 28, 2006 2:23 am

Oh, I know, Aerospacefan. 13 is considered unlucky not just in America, and 4 for that matter is considered unlucky in China. It's said that the Chinese military aircraft designations (J-5, H-5, Q-5, Z-5) all start at 5 because of this.

It's just that to come up with the fact that Orion 13 is scheduled 13 years from now seems so far-fetched to me. You'll always find a 13 when you look hard enough.

Peter Smile
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Thorny
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RE: Orion 13 Might Be First Manned Return To Moon

Sat Oct 28, 2006 7:02 am

Quoting AerospaceFan (Thread starter):
According to a recent report, this fact has not deterred NASA from assigning the role of returning man to the Moon to the 13th mission of Orion. Moreover, it is scheduled to take place -- yes -- thirteen years from now.

Chances of this schedule and flight program looking anything like the end product = zero.  Smile

Note the two years plus gap between Orion 11 and Orion 12. Congress will not accept that. They will not allow NASA to pay a huge workforce to sit around for two years doing nothing, not when there is a perfectly good spacecraft design waiting to be used... watch for Orion 12-15 (or so) to be converted to extended Space Station operations.

Also, I think the chances of the cargo variant ever seeing the light of day are close to zero as well. If any of the commercial projects are successful, and odds are good that at least one will be, NASA's request to build and launch its own far more expensive cargo ship will be politically untenable. In that case, most of those unmanned Orion missions will disappear from the schedule, making the first lunar Orion fight something like Orion 6.
 
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RE: Orion 13 Might Be First Manned Return To Moon

Sat Oct 28, 2006 7:48 am

Quoting Thorny (Reply 5):
Chances of this schedule and flight program looking anything like the end product = zero.

That was my first thought.  Smile

Quoting AerospaceFan (Thread starter):
Moreover, it is scheduled to take place -- yes -- thirteen years from now.

But next year it'll be scheduled to take place in twelve years. Anything that's scheduled thirteen or more years in advance will inevitably be scheduled to take place in thirteen years time at some point.
 
jwenting
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RE: Orion 13 Might Be First Manned Return To Moon

Sat Oct 28, 2006 5:34 pm

it won't happen anyway. The US don't have the guts to launch large scale space programs like that. Lots of paper balloons go up, but nothing will ever come of it.
The risk of being sued over someone stubbing his toe or spilling his coffee is just too great.
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Thorny
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RE: Orion 13 Might Be First Manned Return To Moon

Sun Oct 29, 2006 12:47 am

Quoting Jwenting (Reply 7):
it won't happen anyway. The US don't have the guts to launch large scale space programs like that. Lots of paper balloons go up, but nothing will ever come of it.

You may be right, we'll have to see. At least the US is trying.... no one else is even doing this much. Europe is too fragmented politically to ever attempt something of this scale (same GDP as America, yet less than 1/4 the spending on civil space), so at best they will be junior partners with the US, Russia, or China if anyone ever does go back to the moon. The Russians talk the talk but never walk the walk. The list of ambitious "this is what we're going to do in space" boasts is nearly as long as America's, with much less to show for it. Russia is now talking about building a new Space Station of its own, nevermind that they never finished their half of the current Space Station and can't seem to scare up the funding for their new Kliper spacecraft (talk about paper balloons...) At the rate China is launching manned spacecraft (two flights in the period of time America flew the entire Project Gemini) they might get to the moon around 2050, maybe.

Anyway, America sends up humans in a spacecraft that has no escape systems for large portions of its flight, and we've lost 14 great men and women in the effort. Americans climb on rockets that look like they were built in someone's garage and win X-Prizes with them. Americans go out in space to build space stations with nothing but rubbery spacesuits between them and instant death. And America is the only nation to ever send humans on expeditions beyond the confines of low Earth orbit. To say we don't have the guts is, quite simply, ridiculous.
 
connies4ever
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RE: Orion 13 Might Be First Manned Return To Moon

Sun Oct 29, 2006 1:54 am

Quoting Thorny (Reply 8):
Quoting Jwenting (Reply 7):
it won't happen anyway. The US don't have the guts to launch large scale space programs like that. Lots of paper balloons go up, but nothing will ever come of it.



Quoting Thorny (Reply 8):
Anyway, America sends up humans in a spacecraft that has no escape systems for large portions of its flight, and we've lost 14 great men and women in the effort. Americans climb on rockets that look like they were built in someone's garage and win X-Prizes with them. Americans go out in space to build space stations with nothing but rubbery spacesuits between them and instant death. And America is the only nation to ever send humans on expeditions beyond the confines of low Earth orbit. To say we don't have the guts is, quite simply, ridiculous.

Agree with your comments, Thorny. No one doubts the bravery of Americans as individuals. Perhaps what Jwenting was trying to say, however clumsily, is that the political entities and government agencies themselves either can't or won't sustain a vision for the future, but pay more attention to the election cycle.

Particularly if the US goes into a deep recession (not impossible, esp. given the housing meltdown) they may not be able to pay for the Constellation program.
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cloudy
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RE: Orion 13 Might Be First Manned Return To Moon

Sun Oct 29, 2006 11:35 pm

Quoting Jwenting (Reply 7):
it won't happen anyway. The US don't have the guts to launch large scale space programs like that. Lots of paper balloons go up, but nothing will ever come of it.
The risk of being sued over someone stubbing his toe or spilling his coffee is just too great.

The only thing that would cause us to have an ambitious government space program is competition. The only way we are going back to the moon is if someone else threatens to do it first, or do something that looks more spectacular. Otherwise, the public will see it as a waste of money. They want a manned space program better than anyone elses, but are not willing to spend beyond that.

The legal system does indeed hold back a lot of innovation in America, but there are several legal protections for manned space -

- Sovereign immunity. This essentially means you cannot sue the government. There are a lot of exceptions to this, but it still serves to protect the government and many of its contractors in the event of a space accident. This is why the families of soldiers who die in war or training accidents cannot sue, for example. The reason for sovereign immunity is that it protects the seperation of powers. We can't have the courts, for example, be determining when and with who we go to war - and that is what they would have to do to award damages to the family of a soldier killed in a war we shouldn't have gotten into.

Sovereign immunity is a little weaker with regard to the space program's civilian workforce and to people and property on the ground. However, with the proper precautions, this type of damage or casualty is very rare. In the case of workers - standard workman's comp usually applies.

- It is much harder to sue for damages if you are engaged in what the law calls an "inherently dangerous activity". That is how skydiving and base jumping operations survive. You can still sue if your parachute fails, but there is a much higher standard of proof to meet. I have no doubt that any commercial manned space activity would be considered "inherently dangerous" for some time to come.

- Sometimes congress grants certain industries immunity from civil lawsuits, or makes it much harder to sue, in order to encourage growth in the given industry.

The bigger threats to private manned space flight, IMHO, are regulatory overkill and anti-competitive actions by NASA and/or its contractors. Make no mistake about it - NASA as an organization does not want a commercial manned space program of any kind. They support it only when its goals are limited or it just won't happen for a long time. If someone seriously wants to sell rides to orbit, make no mistake about it, NASA/Lockmart/Boeing will do anything they can to stop them.
 
lehpron
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RE: Orion 13 Might Be First Manned Return To Moon

Tue Oct 31, 2006 2:52 pm

Quoting AerospaceFan (Thread starter):
returning man to the Moon to the 13th mission of Orion

I would have preferred 12 design revisions to present.

Quoting Ptrjong (Reply 1):
Why are so many people, especially in America it seems, into numerology?

I want to say paranoid, but then some of us believe it is possible there are no coincidences.
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BlazingCessna
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RE: Orion 13 Might Be First Manned Return To Moon

Wed Nov 01, 2006 4:39 pm

I just looked at NASA's Constellation website, and there is nothing baout the launch schedule there, other than first manned launch no later than 2014 and lunar landing no later than 2020.

http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2006/aug/HQ_06305_Orion_contract.html
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Thorny
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RE: Orion 13 Might Be First Manned Return To Moon

Wed Nov 01, 2006 11:04 pm

Quoting BlazingCessna (Reply 12):
I just looked at NASA's Constellation website

NASA web sites are usually the last places with such information, because they only have information once the top brass has given it its blessing, which means the politicians have to get their oily hands on it first. For advance news, the inside story and unofficial planning dates, etc. you need to try the external web sites like NASA Watch or NASASpaceNews.

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