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sibille
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War In Georgia Questions?

Fri Aug 08, 2008 7:14 pm

Seems the Russian airforce lost 2 or 4 aircrafts today in Georgia (South Ossetia). Any idea of wich type and how (ground fire, air to air)?
 
MadameConcorde
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Fri Aug 08, 2008 7:25 pm

This is what we hear from the media but is there a proof that these aircrafts were "lost"? With wars often comes propaganda.

Quoting SIBILLE (Thread starter):
Seems the Russian airforce lost 2 or 4 aircrafts today in Georgia

There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
 
fvtu134
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Fri Aug 08, 2008 7:27 pm

Lots of speculation. Nothing confirmed yet. The video footage which I saw only had Su-25's but those were Georgian. Since Su-24's were used in the strike my guess that's where the the damage could be. But again, nothing is confirmed yet... let's wait and see what happens, and hope that cooler heads prevail as this could bad for the whole region.

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curlyheadboy
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Fri Aug 08, 2008 9:38 pm



Quoting FVTu134 (Reply 2):
Lots of speculation. Nothing confirmed yet. The video footage which I saw only had Su-25's but those were Georgian. Since Su-24's were used in the strike my guess that's where the the damage could be. But again, nothing is confirmed yet... let's wait and see what happens, and hope that cooler heads prevail as this could bad for the whole region.

Definitely. I also saw footage of a couple destroyed tanks that could be Su-25s' job
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clickhappy
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Fri Aug 08, 2008 9:42 pm

Here is a photo of a SU-24 taken over Georgia after a bombing run.

http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/rids/20080808/i/r3349196071.jpg
 
curlyheadboy
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Fri Aug 08, 2008 10:14 pm



Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 4):
Here is a photo of a SU-24 taken over Georgia after a bombing run.

http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/rids...1.jpg

Here is some footage of a plane going down, can't tell what kind of jet is it though.

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LY744
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Fri Aug 08, 2008 10:53 pm



Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 1):
This is what we hear from the media but is there a proof that these aircrafts were "lost"? With wars often comes propaganda.

Damn, I'm agreeing with Madame.

Quoting FVTu134 (Reply 2):
let's wait and see what happens, and hope that cooler heads prevail as this could bad for the whole region.

Doesn't matter anymore, things are going to go downhill from here.



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Osprey88
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Fri Aug 08, 2008 11:34 pm



Quoting Clickhappy (Reply 4):
Here is a photo of a SU-24 taken over Georgia after a bombing run.

I saw that same picture here in a Reuters story and originally thought that aircraft was a MIG-31, which, in retrospect did not make a lot of sense, since I doubt you would see a -31 on a CAS mission. Definitely an SU-24 now that I look at it, the smaller swing wings give it away.

As to the original topic, I'll bet that the Russians probably lost those planes to ground fire, maybe from an SA-8 or SA-11, I'm fairly sure the Georgian's have both models. As for the Georgian Air Force, on paper they are supposed to own around 10 MIG-25's, but does anyone know if any of these are in a condition to fight?
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curlyheadboy
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sat Aug 09, 2008 12:00 am



Quoting Osprey88 (Reply 7):
on paper they are supposed to own around 10 MIG-25's, but does anyone know if any of these are in a condition to fight?

Judging from the news coming in, looks like they have some and used them. Possibly they also lost one in the video I posted above, though I tend not to trust the news when it comes to early stages of a conflict.
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sibille
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sat Aug 09, 2008 9:19 am



Quoting CURLYHEADBOY (Reply 5):
Here is some footage of a plane going down, can't tell what kind of jet is it though

The cockpit window (I don't know the exact english word) seems intact and far from the main wreckage on the video. Seems the pilot ejected before the crash.
 
curlyheadboy
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sat Aug 09, 2008 12:29 pm

Russia reportedly aknowledged the loss of a Su-25 and a Tu-22M, while Georgia claims to have downed un to 10 Russian planes.
I am quite impressed of how daring those bomb runs at low altitude are carried out by the Russian AF, very risky indeed, not something you see from western forces that are usually very prudent until they're confident to have suppressed the most of the enemy air defences...
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fvtu134
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sat Aug 09, 2008 1:09 pm

The crash footage is from an Su-25 which could be either Russian or Georgian as both have them. Since Russia confirmed they lost one, it could be that one. I also think the pilot ejected as early in the footage ground troops seem to have the canopy in their hands and it is some distance from the rest of the wreckage.

I was surprised to hear that a Tu-22 had been lost which means they are doing a lot more then ground support for their troops and they are indeed doing "strategic" bombing. It was also confirmed that Shipyards in the sea port had been hit which would be a confirmation that Russia is out to deliver some punch in stead of just supporting their ground troops.

As I said before, I hope that cooler heads will prevail. This is a tiny nation which has no value for either Russia or the US. They just happen to be at the centre of the political chess board.

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MadameConcorde
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sat Aug 09, 2008 2:06 pm

Russian news agency "War between Russia and Georgia orchestrated from USA"  Yeah sure

http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/co...09-08-2008/106046-russia_georgia-0

09.08.2008
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LY744
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sat Aug 09, 2008 3:04 pm



Quoting CURLYHEADBOY (Reply 10):
I am quite impressed of how daring those bomb runs at low altitude are carried out by the Russian AF

The Su-25 doesn't do high altitude. If you want to hit something you're going to go low (and if you don't, you get Grozny).

Even in Afghanistan, the Su-25s constantly made their bomb/rocket runs within the launch envelope of rebel MANPADS and AAA, relying on their armour for survival. This worked out fairly well, with Soviet Su-25 losses in the 2nd half of the 80s being very low everything considered.

Su-17s in Afghanistan flew their missions to the outer edge of the range of the rebel air defenses, sacrificing a bit of accuracy for protection. Generally, Su-17/20/22s were only lost when pilots mistakenly descended too low on sorties.

Back to Georgia, the employment of the Tu-22M by the RuAF is more bad news for the region. It just spells 'random bombing'.


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gsosbee
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sat Aug 09, 2008 3:12 pm



Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 12):
Russian news agency "War between Russia and Georgia orchestrated from USA"

We have seen this act before.  banghead 
 
skywatch
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sat Aug 09, 2008 3:50 pm



Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 12):
Russian news agency "War between Russia and Georgia orchestrated from USA"

I think I'm gonna print that out and frame it! So classic! Big grin

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Osprey88
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sat Aug 09, 2008 4:19 pm



Quoting FVTu134 (Reply 11):
I was surprised to hear that a Tu-22 had been lost which means they are doing a lot more then ground support for their troops and they are indeed doing "strategic" bombing. It was also confirmed that Shipyards in the sea port had been hit which would be a confirmation that Russia is out to deliver some punch in stead of just supporting their ground troops.

It does seem as though they are starting to target Georgia's infrastructure, and I certainly hope that things do not escalate further, although I can only remember Russia's use of SCUDs and Fuel-Air Explosives on the Chechens in the 1990s.
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Beaucaire
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sat Aug 09, 2008 4:39 pm

The type of aircraft used and Putin's most recent remarks (..he does not seek an outright war..) seem an indication they would like to keep it appropriate in response.Of course the Russians are mad,because some of their troops have been killed and they willdo a great lot of dammage to Georgia. (The bombing of the harbour of Poti is an example ).
But so far Russia has not send large bombers or used big ordinance bombs...
Albeit the west is quick in pointing the finger on Moscow and use Chechnya as example,we should not forget who started that bloody aggression two days ago ..
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sibille
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sat Aug 09, 2008 5:06 pm



Quoting CURLYHEADBOY (Reply 10):
am quite impressed of how daring those bomb runs at low altitude are carried out by the Russian AF, very risky indeed, not something you see from western forces that are usually very prudent until they're confident to have suppressed the most of the enemy air defences...

Remember the Royal Air Force Tornados during first Irak war. They lost at least 7 or 8 aircrafts in the same conditions.......
 
LY744
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sat Aug 09, 2008 5:13 pm



Quoting Beaucaire (Reply 17):
But so far Russia has not send large bombers

I don't know about you, but a Tu-22M seems pretty big to me.

Quoting Beaucaire (Reply 17):
we should not forget who started that bloody aggression two days ago

Let's not do the whole chicken-or-the-egg thing here, because Georgia has lots of stories to tell too. Just because it wasn't on TV two days ago doesn't mean that there wasn't stuff going on.


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LY744
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sat Aug 09, 2008 5:36 pm

BTW, a story has been going around that Georgian forces just demolished a highway tunnel near the Georgia(S.Ossetia)/Russia(N.Ossetia) border. This is essentially the only prepared route connecting the two parts of Ossetia, and was reportedly used for the insertion of further Russian troops over the past day or two into S.Ossetia.

If the Georgians indeed succeeded in destroying this link, that could very well mean that there's a relatively small Russian military contingent (on the order of a mechanized/infantry regiment/brigade at most) cut off inside of S.Ossetia.



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Analog
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sat Aug 09, 2008 5:59 pm

It's funny that Russia's past position on Kosovo (that it was an internal Yugoslav/Serbian matter) would seem to support Georgia.

Quoting Beaucaire (Reply 17):
But so far Russia has not send large bombers or used big ordinance bombs...

I guess they're holding off on the the 95s and 160s and nukes.  Yeah sure

Can the 95s or 160s carry any conventional "precision" weapons (like the SEAD Kh-15P)?

I doubt Russia would like to lose a Tu-95, let alone a Tu-160. That would be pretty embarrassing.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 12):
Russian news agency "War between Russia and Georgia orchestrated from USA" Yeah sure

Funny how the first sentence reads: "The US administration urged for an immediate cease-fire in the conflict between Russia and Georgia over the unrecognized republic of South Ossetia."

Quoting LY744 (Reply 19):
I don't know about you, but a Tu-22M seems pretty big to me.

For this kind of conflict, where the 7000km range is not required, isn't it pretty similar in capability to the F-111?
 
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sat Aug 09, 2008 6:05 pm



Quoting Analog (Reply 21):
isn't it pretty similar in capability to the F-111?

Way bigger.

Quoting FVTu134 (Reply 11):
doing a lot more then ground support for their troops and they are indeed doing "strategic" bombing. It was also confirmed that Shipyards in the sea port had been hit which would be a confirmation that Russia is out to deliver some punch in stead of just supporting their ground troops.

I think it's more of a sign that the RuAF is under pressure to do something. Actual CAS is a very difficult task that the Russian military, in its current state, is ill equipped to conduct. Bombing large static targets is much easier obviously, not requiring real time intelligence and co-ordination.


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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sat Aug 09, 2008 6:42 pm

Well the reports seen to suggest the Russians have lost at least one SU-25 and one TU-22M (Backfire).
Presumably, the TU-22M was outside the envelope of any MANPADS, it seems Georgia has the SA-11 system, so likely that downed it.
What kind of MANPADS do they have? Presumably Russian too, probably better than the ancient SA-7's, more likely the later ones, roughly comparable with the US Stinger.
A successful engagement with SA-11 does however suggest at least a partial AD network, which presumably the Russians will want to suppress.

Using TU-22M's seems a very blunt instrument, unlike B-52's, they won't be dropping JDAM style PGM's, is use of this aircraft to prove a point, or is using it a sign of the general lack of Russian PGM capabilities?
(Not saying they have not developed or deployed PGM's, they have, it's a case of have they got them in regular operation in most units?)

The low level attacks are not really like the RAF Tornados in 1991, 7 or 8 were not lost in low level, but they did undertake attacks to try and disable the (huge) Iraqi airfields, using JP223 anti runway weapons. SAM suppression largely worked, but the bases were teeming with AAA, even if largely fired blind, there was a lot of it.
These raids stopped when 1) It was clear the Iraqi AF were not going to put up a real fight, b) the stocks of JP223 were largely expended!
 
LY744
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sat Aug 09, 2008 8:14 pm



Quoting GDB (Reply 23):
Using TU-22M's seems a very blunt instrument, unlike B-52's, they won't be dropping JDAM style PGM's, is use of this aircraft to prove a point, or is using it a sign of the general lack of Russian PGM capabilities?

There is another possibility: reconnaissance, apparently some Backfires have recce capability.

As for PGMs, there is nothing to suggest that the Russians have used any at all so far, and Chechen experience shows that they are not terribly likely to use them. Pilot qualification is probably still an issue, and the cost of PGMs is an important consideration too. I can see them using some of their anti-radar missiles to try and suppress Georgia's air defenses though (although that is only really applicable to the SA-11 batteries/detachments, the rest of their systems, SA-8, ZSU-23-4 etc. don't rely too heavily on radar).

BTW, if anyone is interested, 3 of the 4 crew members of the downed Backfire have been captured alive by the Georgians, while the 4th was apparently killed.


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stasisLAX
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sat Aug 09, 2008 9:40 pm

The scope of the conflict is rapidly growing and is threatening to explode into an all-out Russian-Georgian war - it's getting uglier by the minute. I just saw a NBC news brief where G.W. Bush denounced Russia's bombing of towns in Georgia that are not in the immediate border area with the break-away province of South Ossetia.

"Russia sent hundreds of tanks and troops into the separatist province of South Ossetia and bombed Georgian towns Saturday in a major escalation of the conflict that has left scores of civilians dead and wounded." Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26080747
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curlyheadboy
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sat Aug 09, 2008 9:44 pm



Quoting SIBILLE (Reply 18):
Remember the Royal Air Force Tornados during first Irak war. They lost at least 7 or 8 aircrafts in the same conditions.......

Of course I do mate! We lost one of our IDSs that way, downed the first day of war by AAA! Let's say at least we tried at night and not in full daylight...

Quoting LY744 (Reply 24):
BTW, if anyone is interested, 3 of the 4 crew members of the downed Backfire have been captured alive by the Georgians, while the 4th was apparently killed.

Yeah, saw one interviewed on TV in his hospital bed (sigh...) and the body of the one that died.
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sat Aug 09, 2008 9:45 pm

Quoting LY744 (Reply 20):
BTW, a story has been going around that Georgian forces just demolished a highway tunnel near the Georgia(S.Ossetia)/Russia(N.Ossetia) border. This is essentially the only prepared route connecting the two parts of Ossetia, and was reportedly used for the insertion of further Russian troops over the past day or two into S.Ossetia.

Great strategic move on Georgia's part. South Ossetia controls access to the vital Roki tunnel, one of a limited number of routes that cross the northern section of the Caucasus Mountains. For years Georgia has wanted to be able to control the access to the Georgian side of the tunnel; furthermore, the tolls and transit fees collected for utilizing of the tunnel have been THE major form of funding for the South Ossetia separatist army.

[Edited 2008-08-09 14:47:51]
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LY744
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sat Aug 09, 2008 10:14 pm



Quoting StasisLAX (Reply 26):
Great strategic move on Georgia's part. South Ossetia controls access to the vital Roki tunnel, one of a limited number of routes that cross the northern section of the Caucasus Mountains. For years Georgia has wanted to be able to control the access to the Georgian side of the tunnel; furthermore, the tolls and transit fees collected for utilizing of the tunnel have been THE major form of funding for the South Ossetia separatist army.

It would have been, but the story has been proven false in the meantime, the tunnel appears to be intact and fully passable as of 10pm local time. There may have been a bridge destroyed on the same highway but that is also unconfirmed. Demolishing the tunnel may prove too big of a feat for the Georgians to accomplish. However, the fact that Russian forces have to deal with a single bottleneck through which supplies and reinforcements can be pushed to the front should play out in Georgia's favour.

It is worth noting that other than its diminutive size, Georgia's armed forces are some of the best in the former USSR.

If Saakishvili's gamble doesn't cost the country too dearly, it can turn out to be a brilliant move. He could kill two big birds with one stone:

1. Put a halt to Russia's slow but steady take over of S.Ossetia (through insertion of actual peace keepers)

2. Get his country admitted into NATO right away



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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:06 am

More updates:

- captured Tu-22M pilot (50 y.o. Colonel) in a hospital bed 'interview' stated that his mission was reconnaissance, not bombing

- a Russian Lt.Gen, the CO of the Russian 58th Army, was wounded while the column he was a part of was ambushed by Georgian forces on the aforementioned Russia-Georgia highway


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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sun Aug 10, 2008 1:52 am



Quoting Analog (Reply 21):
Funny how the first sentence reads: "The US administration urged for an immediate cease-fire in the conflict between Russia and Georgia over the unrecognized republic of South Ossetia."

An important historical note: there has been considerable tension between Georgia with Russia for 15 years! Russia accused the Georgian government as far back as the mid 1990's of providing a safe haven for Chechen guerrillas and leaders. In bitter retaliation for this supposed action, Russia has strongly supported Georgian separatist groups - including of course, the separatist movement in South Ossetia.
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sun Aug 10, 2008 5:30 am

We don't have any reports on the extent of the damage, but the Russian military bombed Georgia's International Airport in the capital city of Tblisi early Sunday according to the Georgian Interior Ministry.

"Early Sunday, loud explosions were heard in Tbilisi, and Georgian Interior Ministry spokesperson Shota Utiashvili said Russia bombed the city's international airport."

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26080747/
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mig21umd
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sun Aug 10, 2008 5:34 am

Bad news, but if anyone would like to know how this will pan out I suggest you get your hands on Tom Clancy's novel / video game GHOST RECON. Made 7 years ago this is based on a war between Russian backed rebels in Georgia and US special forced helping out the Georgians. And guess what year it was based in...... 2008!

I still remember the first line in the story, "Welcome to Tbilisi gentleman"

Ok, we may not see US involvement but the Georgians I’m sure will expect NATO or US support since the Georgians have had the third most confinement of troops in Iraq after the US and Britain, some 2000 strong (on there way home now somehow) and have helped the west in the war on terror, you will seem to think the US are obliged to support Georgia. If not then it will seem all these small nations who have been helping the US and Britain in Iraq and Afghanistan may feel they may get no benefits for there efforts and are just being used by the superpowers.

So the equation I’m asking, if it look like the Russians will try to completely over run Georgia, will the US / Nato come to Georgia’s aid?
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bjornstrom
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sun Aug 10, 2008 6:48 am

Let's put some NATO fighters on CAP and try to calm down the situation. Im sure the Russians would prefer not to go into dogfights with Eurofighters and F15's.
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sun Aug 10, 2008 7:52 am



Quoting Mig21UMD (Reply 32):
So the equation I’m asking, if it look like the Russians will try to completely over run Georgia, will the US / Nato come to Georgia’s aid?

IMHO, yes.

The U.S. looks at Georgia has a balance of power in the Caucasus region and a big nasty thorn in Putin's new Russian (nationalism's) side. The huge U.S. and British investments made in military hardware on top of the recently built natural gas and oil pipelines through Georgia will almost guarantee that there will be some kind of multi-national peacekeeping force put into Georgia - if the conflict continues to rapidly escalate.

Furthermore, Georgia's leadership has been staunch U.S. supporters in Iraq and Afghanistan - for the U.S. to not come to Georgia's aid at all (either through military or strong diplomatic actions) would likely lead to a crisis in confidence in other smaller U.S. allies that may be bullied in some manner by the re-emergence of Russian military force in the future.
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Analog
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sun Aug 10, 2008 8:02 am



Quoting LY744 (Reply 22):

Quoting Analog (Reply 21):
isn't it pretty similar in capability to the F-111?

Way bigger.

Sure, but I was talking about "capability," which can mean a lot of things, but usually doesn't refer to the capability to burn fuel, occupy tarmac (4.5 the area) or stress runways (129 megagrams vs 45 megagrams MTOW).  Wink

Going by Gospel (sorry, Wikipedia), the Tu-22M can carry 21 megagrams of ordinance versus the F-111's 14.3 megagrams. Different, but not that much, especially given the greater fuel and crew resources required (4 vs. 2 on the F-111). The Tu-22M certainly has a bigger range, but I assume that's not much of a factor in this case.

This armchair tactician would guess that the F-111, given the greater choice of armaments, would be far more capable than the Tu-22M in this type of conflict.

Quoting GDB (Reply 23):
Using TU-22M's seems a very blunt instrument, unlike B-52's, they won't be dropping JDAM style PGM's, is use of this aircraft to prove a point, or is using it a sign of the general lack of Russian PGM capabilities?

Sure seems that way. Either that or the Russians have no nearby airfields stocked with weapons and have to rely on the Tu-22M's range until their cargo aircraft/trains/trucks can get the appropriate supplies in position. That's only likely if the Russians messed up strategic planning; generally it's wise to put weapons in place before you attack.  Smile
 
Beaucaire
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sun Aug 10, 2008 8:04 am

Quoting Mig21UMD (Reply 32):
So the equation I’m asking, if it look like the Russians will try to completely over run Georgia, will the US / Nato come to Georgia’s aid

Russia just opened a second front-line by positioning part of it's Black Sea fleet in front of Abkhazia ports,and carry an estimated 6000 land-troops.
The fleet also will install a defacto sea-embargo against Georgia,preventing arms-supply to reach the country.
They will establish a status quo as it was before the Georgian agression into Southern Ossetia ,annexe de facto Ossetia et will send a strong message to Saakashvili to stay put !

Nato will do nothing at all other than complain strongly to the UN security council,since nobody is interested to enter into an armed conflict with Russia . We have already conflicts in Irak and Afghanistan and a potential new one created in Iran- no way to build up a new East-West confrontation..

[Edited 2008-08-10 01:16:22]
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mig21umd
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sun Aug 10, 2008 11:53 am



Quoting Beaucaire (Reply 36):
Nato will do nothing at all other than complain strongly to the UN security council,since nobody is interested to enter into an armed conflict with Russia . We have already conflicts in Irak and Afghanistan and a potential new one created in Iran- no way to build up a new East-West confrontation..

Never say never. We (humans) always fall into a sense of naivety/comfort during times of peace but fail to realise how close nations come to war every year. Do you think Iraq felt the American would back Kuwait or what about Australia and Indonesia, they almost went to war with each other over East Timor in 1999!

When it comes to big powers, US Russia China etc, they are just undeclared empires who do not like to be pushed around by anyone. I'm sure the US is putting massive pressure on the Russian (behind the scenes) and if there is no peace, may enter the conflict by material and or intelligence support.

It will be too dangerous for the US to do nothing since the Russian are beginning to play the ‘cold war game again’ and the fact that Georgia is part of a large group of non NATO nations supporting the US in the war on terror and if a you guys scratch our back but we won’t or can’t scratch your back when you need it, perceptions comes out of this, then consider the wars in Afghanistan and especially Iraq lost unless the US is prepared to increase there own troop numbers in these nations to replace the nations who have withdrawn.

This situation in Georgia stretches way past the boarders of Georgia it self and I think it is a Russian message to the west, along with the Russian air force resuming there bomber patrol flight close to western interest, saying we are back and NATO expansion stops now!
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par13del
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sun Aug 10, 2008 12:32 pm



Quoting Bjornstrom (Reply 33):
Let's put some NATO fighters on CAP and try to calm down the situation. Im sure the Russians would prefer not to go into dogfights with Eurofighters and F15's.

Never happen for a number of reasons:
1. Demonstrations in the EU on US aggression - Remember Kosovo, the US campaign started without UN approval, that came later
2. Which country in the EU is going to give over flight rights to US tankers and fighters
3. I am only talking about US a/c because by the time the EU and or NATO or both decide to do something, it will all be over
4. The entire world said the US was looking for cheap oil in Iraq, does Georgia not have oil also?

This is no doubt a serious situation, and the US knows that they cannot count on any EU nation right now for military action, NATO is in Afghanistan and really don't want to be there, and they are not in a position to take on the entire Russian military on "their soil", so if the Europeans won't do something I'm certain the US won't.
US is still suffering the effects of Iraq, the name callng etc. will have an effect on the US response now and in the near future.
 
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RayChuang
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sun Aug 10, 2008 2:10 pm

I think the Georgians will surrender within four days for a number of obvious reasons:

1) The Georgians don't have enough weapons to hold out.
2) A LOT of Georgians don't support the current government and still prefer an alliance with Russia for economic reasons.
3) Georgia needs the expertise of Gazprom and Lukoil to modernize the Baku petroleum fields.
4) The Russians have a lot of operatives inside Georgia that could destabilize the Georgian government in no time flat.

In terms of air power, the Russians have plentiful Su-24's and MiG-29's to provide both air cover and conduct bombing raids, while the Georgian AF may be overwhelmed in a matter of days.
 
LY744
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sun Aug 10, 2008 2:26 pm



Quoting StasisLAX (Reply 30):
An important historical note: there has been considerable tension between Georgia with Russia for 15 years!

It goes back to a little earlier, when the Russians blatantly backed the brutal and pointless 'liberation' of Abkhazia in 92-93...

Quoting Analog (Reply 35):
This armchair tactician would guess that the F-111, given the greater choice of armaments, would be far more capable than the Tu-22M in this type of conflict.

Just like the F-111 would have been more effective than the B-52 in, oh say, Vietnam?

Quoting Beaucaire (Reply 36):
The fleet also will install a defacto sea-embargo against Georgia,preventing arms-supply to reach the country.

They clearly said they wouldn't, putting an embargo on Georgia would go against the party line of "we're not at war with Georgia".

Quoting Beaucaire (Reply 36):
They will establish a status quo as it was before the Georgian agression into Southern Ossetia

Hmm, so Georgians in Ossetia = bad, but Russians in Checnya = good? What's your excuse for Russia's shameless meddling in another country's affairs? What about Ossetian/Russian aggression? Is it not as important because it wasn't all over the news?

This is a pointless argument, both sides have little to be proud of, so let's leave it out of the equation, at least in mil av.

Quoting Mig21UMD (Reply 32):
Bad news, but if anyone would like to know how this will pan out I suggest you get your hands on Tom Clancy's novel / video game GHOST RECON. Made 7 years ago this is based on a war between Russian backed rebels in Georgia and US special forced helping out the Georgians. And guess what year it was based in...... 2008!

If I were you, I wouldn't bet any money on it (or any other world event) playing out like a Tom Clancy novel.


LY744.
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highlander0
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sun Aug 10, 2008 2:46 pm

Georgia "pulls out" of S. Ossetia


Thought that might be of some interest.
 
A342
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sun Aug 10, 2008 2:49 pm



Quoting RayChuang (Reply 39):
3) Georgia needs the expertise of Gazprom and Lukoil to modernize the Baku petroleum fields.

Baku is in Azerbaijan...
Exceptions confirm the rule.
 
LY744
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sun Aug 10, 2008 9:26 pm

The Russians have been spreading some sexy stories about foreign guns for hire doing Georgia's fighting:

- an African American U.S. citizen sapper was supposedly captured near the Russia-Georgia highway
- some of the troops killed by the Russians were said to have Ukrainian names and ID papers
- a captured pilot from a shot down Georgian Su-25 was said to understand neither Georgian nor Russian, and was being communicated with in English. The Russians said they're thinking he's Arab

I suppose everyone has heard about the Georgian patrol boat being sunk earlier today but a Russian ship.

Rumours have been circulating that a detachment of Tu-160s (!) has either been deployed to the region or already been used in the fighting, supposedly for the purposes of destroying some of Georgia's AD systems using the Blackjack's cruise missiles.

Situation in Abkhazia is unclear, with Georgia claiming that Russian reinforcements are moving in there too.

Back to the Georgian air force. Considering it was built around a dozen upgraded Su-25s, it would be very interesting to know how many of them are gone by now.


LY744.
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GDB
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:31 pm

Par13del, NATO aircraft have already provided CAP's for some of the smaller former WarPac states/ex Soviet Republics.
US, UK, Dutch, Danish, Norwegian aircraft, and from others too probably, have all taken their turns doing this.
True, these were new NATO members, not a non member in a shooting was with Russia.

This idea that the 'EU' (different nations with non identical foreign polices), will automatically oppose the US is a fiction, to be filed alongside the one that maintains that the EU is being 'overwhelmed by hostile Muslims'.
 
A342
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:34 pm



Quoting LY744 (Reply 43):
Back to the Georgian air force. Considering it was built around a dozen upgraded Su-25s, it would be very interesting to know how many of them are gone by now.

Most Su-25s were actually built in Tbilisi. Now there are reports that Russia has attacked the factory. IF Su-25s were used in this mission, that would be the ultimate irony - an aircraft destroying the factory it was built in. Has that ever happened?
Exceptions confirm the rule.
 
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stasisLAX
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Sun Aug 10, 2008 11:16 pm

The Russians and the Georgian diplomats at the United Nations are now accusing each other of waging genocide, and the Russians are claiming that the UN Secretary-General is supporting Georgia in the conflict. IMO, both sides are guilty of committing this crime.

Georgia's UN ambassador, Irakli Alasania, said it was "Russia's intention to erase Georgian statehood, to exterminate Georgian people."

Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin, meanwhile, accused Georgia of waging "genocide" against South Ossetians. Churkin also accused the U.N. secretary-general's office of taking Georgia's side.

Clarification on the type of Georgian vessel that was sunk: "Russia also claimed its forces sank a Georgian missile boat that was trying to attack Russian ships in the Black Sea."

MSNBC is reporting that the Associated Press has determined that the Russians have stepped up their "blitz" on Tbilisi. "Russia expanded its bombing blitz Sunday — targeting the area around the Georgian capital's international airport."

MSNBC also reporting today that "The U.S. military began flying 2,000 Georgian troops home from Iraq after Georgia recalled them, even while calling for a truce."


Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26116598/

[Edited 2008-08-10 16:24:10]
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HanginOut
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Mon Aug 11, 2008 12:28 am

I posted this in the other thread, concerning TBS being attacked and you may find it of interest.

Interestingly, Finnish Foreign Minister Stubb (in his capacity as Chairman in Office for the OSCE) and French Foreign Minister Kouchner (representing the EU Presidency) were slated to fly into TBS a few hours later. My information is that they arrived safely, but I wonder if the Russians were also sending a bit of a message to them?!
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stasisLAX
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Mon Aug 11, 2008 6:43 am

Additional news on Russian bombing activities in Georgia. Account to an article in the Daily Mail, Russia has succeeded in ‘completely devastating’ the strategic Black Sea port of Poti, a staging post for oil and other energy supplies.

Source: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worl...ssian-bear-goes-Wests-jugular.html

I have come to the conclusion that this conflict could be a meticulously planned plot by Comrade Putin to gain control of the Georgian oil pipeline and cut off the supply of oil from Azerbaijan to the west. It would be no surprise if Putin were to instigate an all-out war engulfing all of Georgia by full scale military backing of the separatists in Abkhazia in northwest Georgia to put further pressure on Georgia and NATO to act.

Is this war about protecting so-called Russian citizens or about Putin's burning desire to control of Georgia's oil and natural gas pipelines?

[Edited 2008-08-10 23:49:56]
"Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety!" B.Franklin
 
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par13del
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RE: War In Georgia Questions?

Mon Aug 11, 2008 10:19 am



Quoting StasisLAX (Reply 48):
I have come to the conclusion that this conflict could be a meticulously planned plot by Comrade Putin to gain control of the Georgian oil pipeline and cut off the supply of oil from Azerbaijan to the west. It would be no surprise if Putin were to instigate an all-out war engulfing all of Georgia by full scale military backing of the separatists in Abkhazia in northwest Georgia to put further pressure on Georgia and NATO to act.

Is this war about protecting so-called Russian citizens or about Putin's burning desire to control of Georgia's oil and natural gas pipelines?

I'm not a politician, but for arguments sake, lets say that you are correct, now what?
Getting past all the rhetoric at the UN, someplace, somewhere, persons are sitting down to think of ways to mediate this situation, and they usually start with the basics of the strongest to the weakest, so what do the Russians want, then what do the Georgians want?
Really only those two, who are the outside powers who are willing to move in and change the existing status quo, if you have none now you have to start proceedings as if none exist, if they do show up, then you factor them in.

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