AirRyan
Topic Author
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Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Tue May 26, 2009 11:05 pm

In lieu of recent news out of North Korea some analysts are saying that it's now time to accept the fact that North Korea possesses nuclear weapons and in turn, the US needs to help Japan counter this threat by helping Japan become a nuclear-wielding Nation as well.

Whether or not that becomes the case, is it not a very wise time to discuss once again the prospect of selling Japan F-22's, especially since the US has evidently decided to purchase no further F-22's?

If the US has already sold them AEGIS cruisers and in fact might indeed help them wield nuclear weapons to counter the DPRK threat, what further possible security issue could there be with F-22's, especially if say perhaps they are agreed to be built in the US?



http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20090516a1.html
 
BMI727
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Tue May 26, 2009 11:40 pm

I think so. The money is nice, we send a message to the Asian smurf, and improve our relations with Japan. I do think that we should only offer the F-22 to Japan and the UK (who probably wouldn't buy it) and that is it. Nobody else, especially not Israel.

I don't know about North Korea though. Something needs to happen. It might just be time to go blow something up. Personally, I could really use a nice long arms race.

I've probably posted this link before, but just to keep the mood light, here is one of my favorite YouTube videos: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nKuoNhihh4
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Wed May 27, 2009 1:25 am



Quoting AirRyan (Thread starter):
in turn, the US needs to help Japan counter this threat by helping Japan become a nuclear-wielding Nation as well.

Japan needs no help. They have the most high-tech industrial and scientific base outside of the U.S. and could likely produce a nuclear weapon within 18-24 months of a program start. The only way we could "help" Japan develop their own nuclear capability faster would be to just give them some of our weapons.

In any event, this will not happen because:

1. It wouldn't make Japan any more secure given their relationship with the U.S.
2. It would require a dramatic departure from Japan's defense policy

Quoting AirRyan (Thread starter):
Whether or not that becomes the case, is it not a very wise time to discuss once again the prospect of selling Japan F-22's, especially since the US has evidently decided to purchase no further F-22's?

This I do support. Selling Japan the F-22 is good, old-fashion jobs and exports at a time when we need them most. We have a tremendous relationship with Japan and they are a tremendous "western" influence in Asia. Making Japan stronger makes us stronger.
 
Ruscoe
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Wed May 27, 2009 1:54 am

It may not have made it to the press in the USA but Australia tried to buy the F22 and were rejected.

Since the F22 is most likely, going out of production anyway, it would not cost much in terms of jobs to sell them to reliable allies. All the components would come from the USA and they would be assembled in Australia.
I believe that is what happened with the F111, and will happen with the F-18E/F, and the F35.

Cheers
Ruscoe
 
dl021
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Wed May 27, 2009 2:31 am

Hell yes. THey will just develop their own version without us (already started) and they are able to afford 30 or 40 of these things. A couple of squadrons would be a huge help to the US, since we're tied to their defence.
Is my Pan Am ticket to the moon still good?
 
Spacepope
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Wed May 27, 2009 4:21 am



Quoting AirRyan (Thread starter):
If the US has already sold them AEGIS cruisers and in fact might indeed help them wield nuclear weapons to counter the DPRK threat, what further possible security issue could there be with F-22's, especially if say perhaps they are agreed to be built in the US?

I disagree with the sale of the F-22 because of the AEGIS issues. Japan has proven to be unreliable with securing data. They don't simply habd it over to the chinese like the Israelis, but they have pathetic security protocols. Twice they've compromised the sysem in the past 18-24 months.
The last of the famous international playboys
 
Flighty
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Wed May 27, 2009 6:46 am



Quoting Spacepope (Reply 5):
I disagree with the sale of the F-22 because of the AEGIS issues. Japan has proven to be unreliable with securing data. They don't simply habd it over to the chinese like the Israelis, but they have pathetic security protocols.

Japan is a strategic foe of China and NK. I agree the danger of compromised intelligence is there. But let's be realistic, the US is not good at secrecy either. The Chinese will have all the info they need on F-22, with or without Japan sales.

But, maybe it is best to at least slow the process down by denying sales to Australia or Japan. It could put China perhaps 5 to 10 years down the pike. But eventually, they will get the necessary information. The decision to keep the F-22 domestic (no Israel, no Japan... etc) is probably very wise with respect to Russia and China, even if it won't change things in the end.
 
michlis
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Wed May 27, 2009 10:41 am



Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 3):
Since the F22 is most likely, going out of production anyway, it would not cost much in terms of jobs to sell them to reliable allies.



Quoting Spacepope (Reply 5):
I disagree with the sale of the F-22 because of the AEGIS issues. Japan has proven to be unreliable with securing data. They don't simply habd it over to the chinese like the Israelis, but they have pathetic security protocols. Twice they've compromised the sysem in the past 18-24 months.

Then of course there was that incident several years ago with submarine silenting technology...
If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the outcome of a hundred battles.
 
Oroka
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Wed May 27, 2009 8:17 pm

I say sell the F-22 to (almost) anyone who is willing to pony up the cash. China already has a few terabytes of data on the F-35, which takes a lot of tech from the F-22, why not sell it to Japan and Australia, maybe even Israel. The more F-22s flying around with friends, the better.

Japan doesn't need nukes for self defense. First, N Korea needs to build a rocket that can work, then make it more accurate... a thing they are having great difficulty doing (may have to do with the name 'dong'). Then, even if they get one hit in on Japan, N Korea will lose every capital military asset in short order.
 
dl767captain
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Wed May 27, 2009 10:38 pm

I think it would send a powerful message to North Korea as well as China (who strangely is not as mad about NK as they should be).

BTW does anyone know what type of jets NK's air force consists of?
 
Lumberton
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Wed May 27, 2009 10:50 pm

I have said in the past that I thought we'd offer this aircraft to four countries: Japan, Australia, Singapore, and the UK. Boy, was I wrong!

However, I would support a sale of F-22s to Japan on two conditions:
1. They buy at least 24.
2. The terms are FOB Yakota AB--in other words, no co-productions, no offsets, no code, etc.

How bad would they want this deal? I suspect they wouldn't.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
Spacepope
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Thu May 28, 2009 2:09 am



Quoting DL767captain (Reply 9):
BTW does anyone know what type of jets NK's air force consists of?

MiG-21, -23, and -29s.
The last of the famous international playboys
 
Devilfish
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Thu May 28, 2009 5:45 am

Japan may no longer be after the F-22 if they're planning to join the JSF program.....

http://www.defense-aerospace.com/art...s-to-lift-arms-export-embargo.html

Quote:
"It is becoming more likely that Japan will participate in the F-35 fighter program, and this may offer the vehicle that will mark Japan's return to the international armaments business."
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Thu May 28, 2009 5:51 am

The F-22 is a real ace in the hole for the US. While there is much information publicly available on the F-22, most key stealth information is probably still secret.

Nobody has anything that can match its stealth capabilities and probably won't for the next decade or so.

That advantage is worth significantly more than the cash from an international sale.
What the...?
 
Flighty
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Thu May 28, 2009 5:56 am



Quoting Spacepope (Reply 11):
MiG-21, -23, and -29s.

The only meaningful armament NK has is against the civilians of Seoul. They might kill a lot of people in Seoul in the minutes before we eliminated all hostility in NK. If not, then there's no reason we would even negotiate with them. We could, as noted, eliminate all their military assets in just minutes. In retrospect maybe that is long overdue. The only problem is Seoul.
 
Lumberton
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Thu May 28, 2009 9:15 am



Quoting Flighty (Reply 14):
The only meaningful armament NK has is against the civilians of Seoul.

In fact their artillery can hit Seoul; I have read that many of these guns are dual capable, i.e., capable of firing chemical shells.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 14):
The only problem is Seoul.

As if that weren't problem enough, there would be the infiltrators that are already in the South, plus the special units that would make their way across the DMZ. I'm not sure it would be as easy as you suggest, unless Kim's army takes its cue from Saddam's and surrenders en masse.

No rational person wants to see war on the Korean peninsula. Baby Kim and his generals know this, which is why they will continue to take provocations step-by-step and short of war. There might be a skirmish or two, but I doubt they'll push across the DMZ with an invasion force. The casualties would be staggering, unlike anything since the last Korean War.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
TheSonntag
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Thu May 28, 2009 6:28 pm



Quoting Lumberton (Reply 15):
No rational person wants to see war on the Korean peninsula. Baby Kim and his generals know this, which is why they will continue to take provocations step-by-step and short of war. There might be a skirmish or two, but I doubt they'll push across the DMZ with an invasion force. The casualties would be staggering, unlike anything since the last Korean War.

True. This would be the first 21st century "classic" war of two states fighting each other, something which has rarely occurred already after WW2, for good reasons. This would probably see 20-30 million dead, and destroy the economy of South Korea, something which itself would be a very alarming blow to world economy, as well...

Lets hope this never happens. Unfortunately there are so many people in North Korea who make a profit in the current regieme that sending a Seal team to blow up Kim Jong Il won't help, either.,
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Thu May 28, 2009 8:36 pm

Which side would the russians and chinese be on this time?
What the...?
 
Lumberton
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Thu May 28, 2009 9:14 pm



Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 17):
Which side would the russians and chinese be on this time?

IMO, the last thing the Chinese want is a full fledged war on the Asian mainland. The Russians? Who knows? This isn't 1950 and Putin Inc now demands hard cash for weapons.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
TheSonntag
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Thu May 28, 2009 11:34 pm



Quoting Lumberton (Reply 18):
IMO, the last thing the Chinese want is a full fledged war on the Asian mainland. The Russians? Who knows? This isn't 1950 and Putin Inc now demands hard cash for weapons.

Actually some days ago Russian officials were cited that this nuclear test needed a hard answer from the international community. They even mentioned resolutions based on Chapter VII of the UN charta. While this was quickly toned down, the message is clear.

Chapter VII is the chapter regarding worldwide peace. Resolutions under this chapter allow military force used against the aggressor.

With other words, they are quite concerned about North Korea, and would likely back any steps undertaken against them.
 
rwessel
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Fri May 29, 2009 1:40 am



Quoting Lumberton (Reply 15):
In fact their artillery can hit Seoul; I have read that many of these guns are dual capable, i.e., capable of firing chemical shells.

Most artillery of at least 100mm is dual capable in that sense. It's the ammunition that's special, but it's fired from perfectly ordinary gun tubes.

A particular unit may require special training and facilities to handle chemical munitions, but nothing that really impacts the guns themselves.
 
Oroka
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Fri May 29, 2009 2:09 am



Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 13):
That advantage is worth significantly more than the cash from an international sale.

Cash is the only thing keeping other countries from building their own stealth fighters. Russia has samples of F-117 RAM and China has a few Terabytes of data on the F-35... they have the knowledge, not the money or time. They could do gen 4.5 fighters ala F-15SE, but not true stealth like the F-22 or F-35. Even with a F-22 for them to pick over, it would take decades for them to reverse engineer it, and it would still cost a load of money to make.

Having a few more squadrons under allied control is worth more than a few years of secret technology. Any potential adversary to the US and her allies knows they are not match tech wise, so how do you match tech? Numbers. China and N Korea have BIG numbers... so the more F-22s flying around, the better.
 
MCIGuy
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Fri May 29, 2009 2:39 am

I think we could handle Kim's air force between Japan's own F-15Js and our F-22s at Kadena. That would be just to get things started until F-16s, B-2s, B-1s and possibly more F-22s (if needed by then) can get there. Let's not forget the cruise missile shower that would follow immediately after any aggression by Kim, probably catching much of his air force on the ground. That's not really my concern, though. I think Kim's smart enough to know he'd immediately get pounded into mud if he did something to Seoul or along the DMZ. What concerns me is the possibility of his sharing his new found nukes with the likes of Iran or worse, Bin Laden's bunch.

[Edited 2009-05-28 19:41:23]
Airliners.net Moderator Team
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Fri May 29, 2009 7:48 am

It's hard to guess what kimmy would do...is he crazy or cagey...? I don't think any country is willing to sit by and let kim sell nukes to the highest bidder.
What the...?
 
michlis
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Fri May 29, 2009 9:39 am



Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 19):
Chapter VII is the chapter regarding worldwide peace. Resolutions under this chapter allow military force used against the aggressor.

Then Russia or China should do it.
If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the outcome of a hundred battles.
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Fri May 29, 2009 10:17 am



Quoting Michlis (Reply 24):

True...they armed NK...if it needs disarming, they should be in there doing it.
What the...?
 
britjap
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Sat May 30, 2009 10:14 am



Quoting AirRyan (Thread starter):
time to discuss once again the prospect of selling Japan F-22's

IMHO, this is highly highly unlikely. In fact I would say it is pretty much a guaranteed thing that this will not happen (at least anywhere in the near future).

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 3):
It may not have made it to the press in the USA but Australia tried to buy the F22 and were rejected.

This is also exactly what happened to Japan. Japan requested information on the F-22 as well as on other aircraft in order that they could at least make some form of judgement on the relative pros & cons of the various a/c in their F-X competition. They were essentially given absolutely nothing.

The end decision and therefore the power lies with congress. The USAF would probably like to sell the jet for some of the reasons others have stated. It would have helped lower their own costs and would have meant more F-22's flying in allied hands. The DoD could be said to be on the fence. But congress is dead against any sale.

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 10):
The terms are FOB Yakota AB--in other words, no co-productions, no offsets, no code, etc.

How bad would they want this deal? I suspect they wouldn't.

I think you are right. I doubt Japan would accept this deal and would simply opt for another platform.

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 3):
All the components would come from the USA and they would be assembled in Australia.

I am not sure how Oz industry would feel about this but certainly MHI would not be interested in such a deal. MHI's defence lobby is pretty small but I am sure they would likely argue against any such deal in Japan.

Quoting DL021 (Reply 4):
they are able to afford 30 or 40 of these things.

You might be surprised. There are nowhere near the available finds as you probably imagine. Dogma may well lead the JDA to purchase the F-22 were a sale possible, though in my opinion it would be the wrong decision on a number of levels including financially.

Quoting DEVILFISH (Reply 12):
Japan may no longer be after the F-22 if they're planning to join the JSF program.....

Here is the sixty four thousand dollar question. If the F-22 is out of reach, what will the JDA go for. ATM, I think the best that anyone can really say is that it is a 50/50 split between the F-35 and the Typhoon; which way it will eventually go is anyone's guess. There are so many complex and varied factors that will come into play when this decision is made. I would not want to bet on the outcome.

Japan is at a crossroads with regards to the direction of its future security strategy. The final decision on the F-X competition will probably not be made for a fair while yet, but it is very likely that political movement in the next few months will give a strong indication of which way it is likely to go.
 
dl767captain
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Sun May 31, 2009 12:16 am

It's just getting a little entertaining to hear that North Korea will "mercilessly destroy" any invaders. I find that a little difficult when they won't have China backing them up. Lets see their million man army fight when they have no food, and fuel up those aging planes without fuel, then see those men and old jets go up against some F-22s and cobra helicopters.
 
Devilfish
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Sun May 31, 2009 3:47 am



Quoting BritJap (Reply 26):
ATM, I think the best that anyone can really say is that it is a 50/50 split between the F-35 and the Typhoon; which way it will eventually go is anyone's guess. There are so many complex and varied factors that will come into play when this decision is made. I would not want to bet on the outcome.

I'd venture there is a longshot which may complete a menage a trois.....

http://www.flightglobal.com/airspace/photos/f-15se/images/28535/boeing-f-15se.jpg
http://www.flightglobal.com/airspace...5se/images/28535/boeing-f-15se.jpg

Japan may already have had most of what it could offer, but a thorough update coupled with the above could alter the odds in its favor vis-a-vis the Typhoon when the JSDF's existing assets and infrastructure are taken into consideration. Admittedly, Boeing is a day late and a dollar short here with respect to the Lightning II.

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Quoting BritJap (Reply 26):
Japan is at a crossroads with regards to the direction of its future security strategy. The final decision on the F-X competition will probably not be made for a fair while yet, but it is very likely that political movement in the next few months will give a strong indication of which way it is likely to go.


http://inventorspot.com/files/images...0445.japan_fighter_jets_tok801.jpg

I believe the desire to more quickly develop an indigenous stealth fighter could steer Japan towards a collaboration with Lockheed Martin who, understandably, would exact investment in and purchase of, its F-35 as the price for joining.

As a side note, I like the title "Son of Zero" - and the caption "not your grandfather's Mitsubishi" - a not very subtle take of the American original.  Smile But wouldn't tenchu more accurately describe "stealth" in Japanese?
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
michlis
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Sun May 31, 2009 3:21 pm



Quoting DL767captain (Reply 27):
It's just getting a little entertaining to hear that North Korea will "mercilessly destroy" any invaders. I find that a little difficult when they won't have China backing them up. Lets see their million man army fight when they have no food, and fuel up those aging planes without fuel, then see those men and old jets go up against some F-22s and cobra helicopters.

No, but they have a hell of a lot of artillery and they could likely inflict serious damage and casualties on Seoul before it was all taken out.
If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the outcome of a hundred battles.
 
britjap
Posts: 262
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Tue Jun 02, 2009 5:38 am



Quoting DEVILFISH (Reply 28):
Boeing is a day late and a dollar short here

Even more than that, I don't think any variant of the F-15 has any real chance of success here anyway. I don't know how the JASDF would feel about it but I think that the JDA and definitely industry would not want it.

Quoting DEVILFISH (Reply 28):
I believe the desire to more quickly develop an indigenous stealth fighter could steer Japan towards a collaboration with Lockheed Martin who, understandably, would exact investment in and purchase of, its F-35 as the price for joining.

My personal feeling here is that neither the will nor the funds exist for this. I doubt that the ATD-X will result in a full fighter development programme.

At this stage, it is very much a two horse race and both the F-35 & the Typhoon have very good arguments why each is the obvious choice. Like I said, I wouldn't want to have to bet on which it will be.

Quoting DEVILFISH (Reply 28):
I like the title "Son of Zero" - and the caption "not your grandfather's Mitsubishi"

Don't know about those.  beady  But tenchu is something like 'devine punishment' !!? Appropriate???!?!  Smile
 
QFMel
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Fri Jun 05, 2009 7:13 am



Quoting Lumberton (Reply 10):

2. The terms are FOB Yakota AB--in other words, no co-productions, no offsets, no code, etc.

How bad would they want this deal? I suspect they wouldn't.

Yep- wanting a Mitsubishi F-22 would have to be a deal breaker as the production line for the F-22 in the US closes. That alone would be close to an insurmountable hurdle.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 1):
I think so. The money is nice, we send a message to the Asian smurf, and improve our relations with Japan. I do think that we should only offer the F-22 to Japan and the UK (who probably wouldn't buy it) and that is it. Nobody else, especially not Israel.

On what basis do you propose Congress not approve transfers? Aside from the fact that they won't be selling an aircraft type that will not be produced for much longer, on what basis do you deny the IDF such an opportunity? Let alone the ADF?

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 2):
Japan needs no help. They have the most high-tech industrial and scientific base outside of the U.S. and could likely produce a nuclear weapon within 18-24 months of a program start.

 checkmark  Not a move that would promote stability, however (not suggesting you're condoning this by any means- your observation is spot on).

Quoting Ruscoe (Reply 3):
It may not have made it to the press in the USA but Australia tried to buy the F22 and were rejected.

More of a feature of scholarly/industry journals.

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 15):

Quoting Flighty (Reply 14):
The only meaningful armament NK has is against the civilians of Seoul.

In fact their artillery can hit Seoul; I have read that many of these guns are dual capable, i.e., capable of firing chemical shells.

Basically the point of having the artillery where it is.
 
baroque
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Fri Jun 05, 2009 7:56 am



Quoting QFMel (Reply 31):
Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 2):
Japan needs no help. They have the most high-tech industrial and scientific base outside of the U.S. and could likely produce a nuclear weapon within 18-24 months of a program start.

checkmark Not a move that would promote stability, however (not suggesting you're condoning this by any means- your observation is spot on).

Dunno about spot on!! I would have thought they could do it in about 2 months, maybe less rather than more.  eek 
 
QFMel
Posts: 36
Joined: Tue Jun 02, 2009 11:55 pm

RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Fri Jun 05, 2009 9:43 am



Quoting Baroque (Reply 32):
Dunno about spot on!! I would have thought they could do it in about 2 months, maybe less rather than more.

Well, come what may, they have an advanced manufacturing capability and it's likely they could weaponise with ease. Though we're still overlooking Japan's natural and understandable inclination to be nuclear-averse.
 
AirRyan
Topic Author
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Fri Jun 05, 2009 10:00 pm

Now that Japan has dropped their arms export ban, their a lot more open to anything the West may offer. Honestly I think they would have a good chance of getting US Congressional approval this time around in lieu of recent DPRK events as well as the decision to limit USAF F-22 production at 172, to purchase the F-22.

If not, it'd be a toss between the JSF and EF with an edge to the EF given it's two engines; I don't think the Super Hornet or F-15 anything offer them the long-term solution they ought to be looking at.

http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/gener...%20to%20Drop%20Arms%20Export%20Ban
 
BMI727
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Sat Jun 06, 2009 5:16 am



Quoting QFMel (Reply 31):
on what basis do you deny the IDF such an opportunity?

Israel might use it, that's why. Maybe if they allow a Palestinian state and a UN peacekeeping force in between the two we could allow them some F-22s. In the case with Iran if anything is to be done, it should certainly be done by the Americans and not the Israelis.

Quoting QFMel (Reply 31):
Let alone the ADF?

I wouldn't have a problem with Australia getting them, but I highly doubt that they would be willing to spend that much. But if they want to, go for it.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
QFMel
Posts: 36
Joined: Tue Jun 02, 2009 11:55 pm

RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Sat Jun 06, 2009 10:53 am



Quoting BMI727 (Reply 35):
Israel might use it, that's why. Maybe if they allow a Palestinian state and a UN peacekeeping force in between the two we could allow them some F-22s. In the case with Iran if anything is to be done, it should certainly be done by the Americans and not the Israelis.

Without getting overly political, it takes two to Tango. Or in this case, quite a few dance partners to be dancing. It's really not as simple as that.

There's never been a problem with arming Israel with some of, if not the best existing interceptors and/or strike aircraft the US has to offer. That the F-22 is quality of an order of magnitude greater than other options open to Israel is almost beside the point.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 35):
I wouldn't have a problem with Australia getting them, but I highly doubt that they would be willing to spend that much. But if they want to, go for it.

There's not really any ingrained opposition to this in the US, the divisions exist here. Our former Defence Minister, who resigned on Thursday, tried at various points to his considerable credit to question the orthodoxy which held that the RAAF MUST have a strike aircraft at any cost....and that, in effect, because of a single-type preference, that that strike aircraft must also be used as a frontline interceptor. So while the F-35 fills a very different niche in other countries (as the volume replacement and certainly not an F-15 replacement, for instance), it is meant to fill both roles for us. Viewed in isolation, their logic from some angles might look sound. The RAAF was initially trying to get as many airframes as it could, at a time when the F-35 was notionally far cheaper than the F-22.

Times have changed. The F-35 isn't that much cheaper than the Raptor. And the short-sighted policy of insisting on one type of aircraft, perhaps even one variant of one aircraft only, is no longer all that cost effective anyway. Another issue is of course that they are choosing an unproven aircraft to do everything over an aircraft that is proven with respect to its raison d'etre. The middle ground for the RAAF brass would be to ask for a reduced number of F-35s and ask for at least a 20-40 F-22s.

The problem here is that the line will be shut down so it's not an option anyway, and the RAAF brass are wedded to their choice. It's not unlike how they became massive fans of the F-18 after they'd committed themselves to it, when really they should've been (only slightly) more patient and waited/pushed for acquisition of the F-15E. So yet another wasted opportunity for the RAAF. Here's hoping it won't be a huge waste, and that the F-35 does live up to its promise.
 
BMI727
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Sat Jun 06, 2009 6:54 pm



Quoting QFMel (Reply 36):
That the F-22 is quality of an order of magnitude greater than other options open to Israel is almost beside the point.

I don't think so. Giving Israel the F-22 would allow them to wreak all sorts of havoc all over the region if they want. The political risks are too great.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
Devilfish
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Sat Jun 06, 2009 10:20 pm



Quoting QFMel (Reply 36):
It's not unlike how they became massive fans of the F-18 after they'd committed themselves to it, when really they should've been (only slightly) more patient and waited/pushed for acquisition of the F-15E. So yet another wasted opportunity for the RAAF. Here's hoping it won't be a huge waste, and that the F-35 does live up to its promise.

Not to veer too much off-topic here, but if IIRC, the justification given for the Super Hornet buy was that it would cost $40M less apiece than the Slam Eagle. Now that all that is water under the bridge, hindsight shows that a bona fide swing-role (loosely) fighter as that in Post 28 would emerge had they only waited a bit more. To add to the chagrin, Boeing now claims they could offer it at less than $100M when Oz already commited to a hundred JSFs.....

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...-costs-for-100-million-f-15se.html

Quote:
"The risk-sharing deals would shorten the timeline to develop the renamed F-15 Silent Eagle, which possibly would lower its estimated $100 million cost, Chris Chadwick, president of the military aircraft division, said on 3 June at a media roundtable hosted by Boeing."

The ADF is now at the point of no return and the F-35 could yet turn out to be every bit as good as advertised and worth every penny. But imagine the consternation at the MoD should the Silent Eagle does so in time (with a touch of "stealth" to boot) at the reduced cost. Of course, all mothers sing their babies' praises.

As to the F/A-18, all would not be lost as half would be wired to become this.....

View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Kevin Scott
View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Nathan Havercroft


.....the only game in town - if the RAAF would not use the Lightning in a similar fashion.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 37):
Giving Israel the F-22 would allow them to wreak all sorts of havoc all over the region if they want. The political risks are too great.

Well, LockMart just offered Israel F-35 fuselage parts production to get it to commit early.....

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...f-35-assembly-offer-to-israel.html

Quote:
"Lockheed Martin has made what is being described by sources as a 'very general' offer to have Israel Aerospace Industries manufacture fuselage parts for it F-35 Joint Strike Fighter as part of its effort to encourage Israel to buy the aircraft as early as 2014.

The Israeli air force has expressed its intention to purchase 25 F-35s with options for another 50, but the $135 million unit price for aircraft in its configuration has put the timing of the acquisition in question."


Wonder what more they would dangle to entice the IASDF?
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
QFMel
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Sun Jun 07, 2009 5:14 am



Quoting BMI727 (Reply 37):

I don't think so. Giving Israel the F-22 would allow them to wreak all sorts of havoc all over the region if they want. The political risks are too great.

You're predicating your stance on the assumption that they can't do so already. It's not just their (comparatively and objectively) superlative platforms that make the Israeli Air Force so potent, it's their training. The F-22 isn't a game changer to the extent you think, and not being a strike aircraft, doesn't tend to suggest that they'd simply take it out for a test-drive in daylight over Damascus.

Quoting DEVILFISH (Reply 38):

Not to veer too much off-topic here, but if IIRC, the justification given for the Super Hornet buy was that it would cost $40M less apiece than the Slam Eagle. Now that all that is water under the bridge, hindsight shows that a bona fide swing-role (loosely) fighter as that in Post 28 would emerge had they only waited a bit more. To add to the chagrin, Boeing now claims they could offer it at less than $100M when Oz already commited to a hundred JSFs.....

I'm talking the original Hornet purchase in the 80s, when they could've ended up with the Eagle or the Tomcat of blessed memory.

Quoting DEVILFISH (Reply 38):
Wonder what more they would dangle to entice the IASDF?

Probably not much more than that- I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest Israel won't be paying full price anyway. If the price is right, they'll do it, and if it doesn't work out, they'll buy something else!
 
BMI727
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Sun Jun 07, 2009 5:31 am



Quoting QFMel (Reply 39):
You're predicating your stance on the assumption that they can't do so already.

They most certainly can, but just because someone already has a shotgun doesn't mean it is okay to give them a machine gun. More importantly, allowing Israel to acquire the F-22 could be a valuable bargaining chip in the negotiations for a lasting peace.

Quoting QFMel (Reply 39):
It's not just their (comparatively and objectively) superlative platforms that make the Israeli Air Force so potent, it's their training.

That's true, but I don't think that will stop the IAF from wanting it.

Quoting QFMel (Reply 39):
The F-22 isn't a game changer to the extent you think, and not being a strike aircraft,

The F-22 can carry JDAMs and SDB.

Quoting QFMel (Reply 36):
....and that, in effect, because of a single-type preference, that that strike aircraft must also be used as a frontline interceptor.

This is a potentially disasterous stance. Requiring one airframe to do everything is a huge mistake because it requires too many engineering tradeoffs. Remember how well the F-111 went in the US? The best way to go is to find one plane that can do one thing really well and then see what else it can do. That approach has worked quite well with the F-15 and F-18.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
QFMel
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Sun Jun 07, 2009 5:49 am



Quoting BMI727 (Reply 40):
More importantly, allowing Israel to acquire the F-22 could be a valuable bargaining chip in the negotiations for a lasting peace.

That much we can agree on, though I would qualify this by saying that Israel is not the 'problem' per se- the situation in the Middle East is a many splendoured thing.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 40):

That's true, but I don't think that will stop the IAF from wanting it.

And who can blame them? Why choose the Toyota when you can afford the Ferrari- provided of course it's on offer. It's like when I see people choose flights on a Dash instead of a 734! Madness!

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 40):

The F-22 can carry JDAMs and SDB.

Having bombs on the hardpoints doesn't do wonders with respect to its principal purpose- I'm not questioning that capability, certainly very much aware of it, but that's really not what it's meant for. A RAF Nimrod can deploy Sidewinders, but I'd not choose to use it as an interceptor. I'd view such a use of an F-22 as somewhat of a waste.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 40):
This is a potentially disasterous stance. Requiring one airframe to do everything is a huge mistake because it requires too many engineering tradeoffs. Remember how well the F-111 went in the US? The best way to go is to find one plane that can do one thing really well and then see what else it can do. That approach has worked quite well with the F-15 and F-18.

Yep. While we can't afford to have too much variety, putting all our eggs in one basket isn't necessarily the best idea. We're not getting the best interceptor or the best strike aircraft- we're getting (more than) a little from column A, a little from column B. But for the outlay we need to be doing better than that. Again, to my mind the most sensible mix would've been for a moderately large number of F-22s and perhaps a smaller number of F-35s (not less than 30 or 40), or even the other way around if beggars can't be choosers. Sadly, this all seems academic. And it's interesting considering how the RAAF has been perfectly happy to acquire more AEW&C and MRRT frames than they said they'd actually need- but there is apparently no impetus to push for a healthy mix of excellent interceptors and what will hopefully prove to be a high quality strike aircraft, too.
 
BMI727
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Sun Jun 07, 2009 6:45 am



Quoting QFMel (Reply 41):
That much we can agree on, though I would qualify this by saying that Israel is not the 'problem' per se- the situation in the Middle East is a many splendoured thing.

There is plenty of blame to go around, but the idea that Israelis are the victimized 'good guys' is not right. Sadly that is the image the US media perpetuates.

Quoting QFMel (Reply 41):
Having bombs on the hardpoints doesn't do wonders with respect to its principal purpose- I'm not questioning that capability, certainly very much aware of it, but that's really not what it's meant for.

These bombs are carried internally, though the F-22 has hardpoints. The hardpoints would most likely be used only for extra fuel in a ferry situation. While strike is what the F-22 is meant for, we have to think from the practical perspective of the Israelis. The F-22 is very expensive, even for them, to be a true interceptor. Part of the F-22's advantage is that it can control airspace relatively far from base and is certainly not relegated to point defense.

Also, while stealth can be useful in a defense stance, the nearly invisible nature of the F-22 means it is clearly a primarily offensive weapon. I am certain that this fact would not be lost on the Saudis, Egyptians, and our other Arab allies. In many ways this resembles the Cold War contest between MAD and NUTS and the first strike vs. second strike weapons dilemma.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
QFMel
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Sun Jun 07, 2009 1:41 pm



Quoting BMI727 (Reply 42):

There is plenty of blame to go around, but the idea that Israelis are the victimized 'good guys' is not right. Sadly that is the image the US media perpetuates.

Goes too far the other way sometimes. Plenty of European media (and sadly, some Australian media) that presumes Israel is guilty until proven innocent. Israel isn't perfect. But nor is the Palestinian Authority.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 42):
r.

These bombs are carried internally, though the F-22 has hardpoints. The hardpoints would most likely be used only for extra fuel in a ferry situation. While strike is what the F-22 is meant for, we have to think from the practical perspective of the Israelis. The F-22 is very expensive, even for them, to be a true interceptor. Part of the F-22's advantage is that it can control airspace relatively far from base and is certainly not relegated to point defense.

Also, while stealth can be useful in a defense stance, the nearly invisible nature of the F-22 means it is clearly a primarily offensive weapon. I am certain that this fact would not be lost on the Saudis, Egyptians, and our other Arab allies. In many ways this resembles the Cold War contest between MAD and NUTS and the first strike vs. second strike weapons dilemma.

Yes, but there shouldn't ideally be anything on the hardpoints, any why carry bombs internally when you could be carrying missiles? It was not conceived as a fighter-bomber. Yes it has the flexibility do fulfill that role, not least on account of its stealthiness. As a superlative interceptor, an 'air dominance' fighter, it can be perfectly offensive, yes; just send a few Falcons out ahead of it as bait and let your opponents follow them, only to find- oh dear- we appear to have been engaged by a contact we didn't realise was there- and now it's not- and now I've had to eject. If you've got Eagles and Falcons and all manner of other aircraft, you're not going to use the F-22 as a fighter-bomber. Israel is potentially an exception though, that I can agree on, but whether or not an F-22 would have the legs for that kind of mission without refueling and without compromising its obviously advantageous characteristics, I don't know (eg a long-ish round-trip 'training mission' that ends up in Iran).

The capability of the F-22 would certainly not be lost on Israel's neighbours, but whatever their relationships (Israel has no truck with either Egypt or Saudi Arabia- tensions with the latter notwithstanding, common enemies and security concerns abound), objectively, they would appreciate fully that another state will do its best to get the best possible outcome for itself. And for Israel that may well mean getting the F-22. Israel isn't fickle, it's not going to, as I said, take it out for a whirl- 'look, this is our undetected trip to Riyadh' isn't really their style. 'This is our widely-reported trip to Shiraz' might be a bit different. But again, Israel's neighbours aren't ignorant of Tel Aviv's security concerns and priorities and wouldn't be overly alarmed by this, whatever rhetoric might follow.

Syria might well be alarmed- but last time I checked, Syria isn't a US ally.
 
Devilfish
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Sun Jun 07, 2009 3:00 pm



Quoting QFMel (Reply 39):
I'm talking the original Hornet purchase in the 80s, when they could've ended up with the Eagle or the Tomcat of blessed memory.

Ahh, pardon me then. It did bear a "striking" resemblance to a more recent procurement action.  footinmouth 

Quoting QFMel (Reply 43):
Israel isn't fickle

On this, there is no debate.
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
trex8
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Sun Jun 07, 2009 5:47 pm



Quoting DL767captain (Reply 9):
I think it would send a powerful message to North Korea as well as China (who strangely is not as mad about NK as they should be).

thats because they don't want 10 million North Koreans running across the border into China

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 10):
I have said in the past that I thought we'd offer this aircraft to four countries: Japan, Australia, Singapore, and the UK. Boy, was I wrong!

Apologies to our Aussie friends but Oz will never be able to buy enough to cover their northern coastline no matter how much better the Raptor is supposed to be compared to the competition. Plus given those comments by FM Downer from the previous government about not going to fight over Taiwan if China attacks and the US is involved, why should we?
Plus the Chinese won't need to invade Australia to take it over in the future, they will buy it out, which was really why Downer made those comments in the first place, no Chinese markets for Australian raw materials, no Australian economy. Like they always say, its always about the $$.
Forget the Indnesians being a credible threat for a few decades!
And what does Singapore need F22s to protect themselves from??The Malays and Indonesians? Pleez!
 
BMI727
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Sun Jun 07, 2009 8:05 pm



Quoting QFMel (Reply 43):
any why carry bombs internally when you could be carrying missiles?

You would if you want to bomb something.

Quoting QFMel (Reply 43):
As a superlative interceptor, an 'air dominance' fighter, it can be perfectly offensive, yes; just send a few Falcons out ahead of it as bait and let your opponents follow them, only to find- oh dear- we appear to have been engaged by a contact we didn't realise was there- and now it's not- and now I've had to eject. If you've got Eagles and Falcons and all manner of other aircraft, you're not going to use the F-22 as a fighter-bomber.

The fact remains that stealth aircraft are, and most likely always will be, offensive weapons.

Quoting QFMel (Reply 43):
But again, Israel's neighbours aren't ignorant of Tel Aviv's security concerns and priorities and wouldn't be overly alarmed by this, whatever rhetoric might follow.

While I think that the friendly Arab nations in the region understand and accept Israel's right to defend itself, there is most certainly a difference between giving them F-15s for primary use as interceptors and giving them F-22s. Plus, what if we allow Israel to have them, but not Egypt or Saudi Arabia? What damage could that do the our relationships and what message does that send?
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
 
Lumberton
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Sun Jun 07, 2009 8:18 pm



Quoting Trex8 (Reply 45):
Plus the Chinese won't need to invade Australia to take it over in the future, they will buy it out,

If the recent Rio Tinto failure is any indication, they might want to re-think this -- if that is their intention.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
QFMel
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Mon Jun 08, 2009 12:18 am



Quoting Trex8 (Reply 45):


Apologies to our Aussie friends but Oz will never be able to buy enough to cover their northern coastline no matter how much better the Raptor is supposed to be compared to the competition. Plus given those comments by FM Downer from the previous government about not going to fight over Taiwan if China attacks and the US is involved, why should we?

For what it's worth, the United States isn't going to be able to buy enough Raptors to meet its long-term need for that aircraft. But again, here the issue is deterrence and making the cost of even considering an Australian excursion even more prohibitively high than it already is. Downer was unusual in that he was a Conservative who had no problem telling Beijing what it wanted to hear- while he was in Government, at least. His true views have since been aired in the pages of his hometown Murdoch paper (the one that spawned Rupert's empire) the Adelaide Advertiser. Notwithstanding the moves made to distance Aus from the quadrilateral approach, the Labor Government has certainly sent signals to China that in the event of conflict in the Straits, neutrality probably wouldn't be our course of action- but not unlike the US, Australia also encourages the ROC not to give the PRC justification for such a conflagration.

With regards to the Australian economy, mining accounts for less than 10% by activity (as little as 6%?)- the concern for Australia is that it accounts for a massive amount of our export growth and record company tax receipts, even now when we're not at the top of the cycle/market. So China buying Rio Tinto or BHP Billiton wouldn't equate to controlling our economy, though it create concerns in some quarters over the extent to which export growth could be stifled somewhat in the long term.

Let me reiterate- again- Indonesia is not the threat here. Australia arms itself against an abstracted threat posed by broader moves towards expansion and modernisation in the Asian region, not on the basis that Soekarno might return from the dead.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 46):

Quoting QFMel (Reply 43):
any why carry bombs internally when you could be carrying missiles?

You would if you want to bomb something.

Yes, although I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest that at least one country we know for certain has access to F-22s also has B-1s, B-2s, and F-117s. And in Israel's case as opposed to that of the United States, they've been perfectly capable of emerging unscathed from precision strikes in depth without stealth aircraft. So while it may well be useful to have that capability, I still don't see it being used primarily as a fighter-bomber.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 46):

The fact remains that stealth aircraft are, and most likely always will be, offensive weapons.

Watch out Canada! In all seriousness, it's a fighter- a stealth one at that- that is likely be used as such.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 46):
.

While I think that the friendly Arab nations in the region understand and accept Israel's right to defend itself, there is most certainly a difference between giving them F-15s for primary use as interceptors and giving them F-22s. Plus, what if we allow Israel to have them, but not Egypt or Saudi Arabia? What damage could that do the our relationships and what message does that send?

They'll understand that it's business as usual, as they don't get access to quite everything that Israel does, and more often than not, if they do, it's not with the same priority or at the same price. Neither country would think itself a likely export market for such a piece of machinery anyway- it's unlikely to cause offence. In the case of the KSA particularly, they're sufficiently well-armed compared to most of their neighbours that it would be unlikely to cause much of a fuss.
 
Lumberton
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RE: Time For US To Sell Japan F-22?

Mon Jun 08, 2009 8:26 pm

This should end the discussion on F-22s for Japan.
http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/as...apans-f-22-dream-could-become.html

Quote:
It appears than an export model of the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor for Japan could cost $250 million apiece. Reuters reports that the price was revealed in a letter that US Senator Daniel Inouye, who heads the Senate Appropriations Committee and supports the fighter's sale, sent to Japan's ambassador to the USA and US Defense Secretary Robert Gates.

This includes the cost of developing an export model of the F-22, which is not available for export in its current form due to its highly sensitive equipment. It assumes that production would take place five years after a contract, with deliveries to begin in seven to nine years.

"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".

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