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Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Thu Apr 15, 2010 5:58 pm

Continued from here: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (by david_itl Apr 10 2010 in Military Aviation & Space Flight)
 
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Thu Apr 15, 2010 6:35 pm

The NYT in this article comes with some brilliant analysis:

Quote:
One possibility, he said, was that the pilot was not aware that the plane, the TU-154, loses altitude faster than usual when it is descending at more than 20 feet per second.

More seriously, the head of MAK has said that the CVR read out does not show any pressure being put on the pilots. And as said earlier, there seems to have been only one landing attempt..
I scratch my head, therefore I am.
 
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alberchico
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Thu Apr 15, 2010 8:21 pm

I feel sorry for the family and friends of the TU-154 captain. Looks like the government and air force will try to place the entire blame for this tragedy on him by claiming pilot error.
short summary of every jewish holiday: they tried to kill us ,we won , lets eat !
 
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Thu Apr 15, 2010 11:32 pm

Quoting rafaelyyz (Reply 3):

As I said, they still have a long way to go. You just gave another proof.
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Thu Apr 15, 2010 11:41 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 309):
And, Yes, the wreckage was smack on the extended runway centerline.

On April 15th the Russian MAK released first results of the investigation and preliminary analysis of both flight data and cockpit voice recorder today saying, that the airplane was attempting its first approach when it impacted trees 1050 meters short of the runway threshold and about 40 to 45 meters to the left of the extended runway centerline.

Gotcha again!  
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Fri Apr 16, 2010 1:16 am

Quoting acabgd (Reply 5):
Gotcha again!

96 people are dead and a whole nation is in mourning. This isn't a contest.

So facts from MAK so far:

1. This was the first approach, I guess "repeated warnings" were issued during the discussion between pilots and controlles when the plane was still in the holding pattern.

2. There was no confirmed pressure from the President or anyone in the cabin on the cockpit crew.

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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Fri Apr 16, 2010 1:46 am

Quoting Pihero (Reply 4):
As I said, they still have a long way to go. You just gave another proof.

It was a strange wording to suggest that the recent ceremony attended jointly marked an end to WW2 for some. Katyn isn't only about WW2. Katyn is also about the time up until 1989, and a huge swath of history even before WW2. To suggest that anything regarding this can be "ended" in a moment is too simplistic. Even the deceased president's speech which was supposed to be given on that saturday, reminded us that while we are on the road toward healing this wound, there remains a lot to be done.

I propose we stick to aviation.
 
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Fri Apr 16, 2010 7:45 am

Quoting rafaelyyz (Reply 7):
I propose we stick to aviation.

Agreed. We can't live inthe past for ever. It's unhealthy.
Picked up this photo :
http://i337.photobucket.com/albums/n385/motidog/101-196ab6.jpg
showing that the big piece torn from the airplane was indeed the tip of the left wing.
Now we have confirmed that the reason the airplane veered to the left and - apparently - ended up upside down was a left roll which ended with the airplane impacting the ground inverted.
On Pprune, some have plotted the last flightpath on a terrain profile and found out that , at the first tree impact, they were below the airfield and their subsequent trajectory was a 5% climb, insufficient to clear all obstacles.
That 5% value is puzzling : way below the gradient we would expect in a go-around, the final approach geometry it would lead to makes a landing a lot more difficult than normal...even if they were well above stall speed...
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Fri Apr 16, 2010 8:10 am

Quoting Pihero (Reply 8):
Agreed. We can't live inthe past for ever. It's unhealthy.

Yeah. As we can see one can even end in an air crash. As a matter of fact all this trip was just living in the past and making politics of things that should be left to historians.

Quoting Pihero (Reply 8):
On Pprune, some have plotted the last flightpath on a terrain profile and found out that , at the first tree impact, they were below the airfield and their subsequent trajectory was a 5% climb, insufficient to clear all obstacles.
That 5% value is puzzling : way below the gradient we would expect in a go-around, the final approach geometry it would lead to makes a landing a lot more difficult than normal...even if they were well above stall speed...

There's also a set of images (I can't find the link now) showing that first trees are cut lower than some of the next. And it seems the first impact was not antenna, but a birch tree. Had they cleared one really huge pine everything would be probably OK, but they did not.
So, would it be ice?
 
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Fri Apr 16, 2010 9:09 am

Quoting 3MilesToWRO (Reply 9):
So, would it be ice?

I don't think so and to me, all point toward human factors :
- A crew under heavy stress, both on the political importance of landing at Smolensk and on time, and an approach ( whether GCA or 2NDBs ) that was certainly not suited to the visibility conditions.
- An approach-to-land taken to its absolute possibilities - and beyond,
- all with an incomplete knowledge of the airfield ( in terms of relief, aspect...)
The challenge was huge : with a visibility of 400m, for any chance to land safely (considering that their approach speed wass in the vicinity of 280 km/h i.e. around 80m/s), they just had five seconds) to identify the runway , at a height of some 35 m ; any more would have been an overhigh flare and a longer landing distance, any lower was a recipe for hitting obstacles.
It is my opinion that they presumed too much.
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Fri Apr 16, 2010 2:09 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 8):
, at the first tree impact, they were below the airfield

That's what I said three days ago.

Google Earth shows the terrain east of the runway is below field elevation, in some places near the projected impact point close to 100 feet below the runway threshold elevation. So we knew that inorder for the plane to make impact in that area, it had to be more than just low, but severely low.

I would be interested in the descent rate in the five km before impact.

Why did they sink so low?
 
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Fri Apr 16, 2010 2:55 pm

So the airfield was elevated. That would explain odd altimeter readings.

It's quite strange, though, that the Polish investigator was talking about crazy speed of 150-180 m/s.

From Pihero's last post I can only assume that it was very dangerous approach.
Which can not be justified by no means IMHO.
 
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Fri Apr 16, 2010 3:20 pm

I'm not sure elevated is the right term.

The airport sits on a hill north of the city, close to 300 feet above the elevation of the river that runs through the city.

The terrain slopes away and down from the runway to both the east and the west. While it is lower than the airport, it would not make the airport stand out like an aircraft carrier. Probably something like the approach to KCOS or KSEA from the south

Certainly not as bad as LAS. There Rwy 25L rises 109 feet from the east to west ends, or Rwy 25R rises 148 feet. The off airport terrain rises 50 feet in the last KM, 100 feet in the last mile.
 
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Sat Apr 17, 2010 3:05 pm

Today Poland holds the official public ceremony for the crash victims.
The funeral will be held on Sunday.

See more about it here on BBC News

Tens of thousands of people are taking part in a memorial service in the Polish capital for the 96 victims of last weekend's plane crash.
Polish President Lech Kaczynski and key public figures, including the heads of the armed forces were among the dead.
Sirens sounded across the country to signal the start of the service.
As well as speeches from politicians, including Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Polish bishops are celebrating a solemn Mass service.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8626683.stm

Requiescat In Pace crash victims.

 
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Sat Apr 17, 2010 8:05 pm

Found this extract from a russian forum, with a Google translation, but at least it is quite understandable.
The reconstructing work done by this poster is quite astonishing.
In my opinion, he managed to catch the gist of the airplane trajectory in its final moments.
Here it is
There are three pages of that post.
The remaining question now would be about how they were to let themselves into that situation.
I heard that the prelim report is ready to be published.
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MadameConcorde
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Sun Apr 18, 2010 1:30 pm

The burial Mass is live on Polish TV on the Internet for those who want to watch it.

Several links on this page

http://delicast.com/tv/Poland/Religia_TV

Religia TV has an excellent quality live cast. This is so extremely sad... it brings tears...

At this moment I hear "Ave Verum Corpus" sung by the cathedral choir with a full orchestra.

Polish President and First Lady will be buried in the Cracow cathedral.

RIP TU154 victims.
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Tue Apr 20, 2010 2:21 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 14):
The reconstructing work done by this poster is quite astonishing.

Thanks for the link - it really is amazing detective work! Do you have any ideas on why an aircraft would roll over like that? I suppose with the prelim report coming out soon we'll know the chain of events.
 
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Tue Apr 20, 2010 2:50 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 14):

Quite a remarkable reconstruction from someone who acknowledges he has no particular knowledge of aviation.

Quoting comorin (Reply 16):
Do you have any ideas on why an aircraft would roll over like that?

Losing a chunk of wing along with the aileron will do it - asymetrical lift and loss of roll control.

The real question, as pihero noted, is

Quoting Pihero (Reply 14):
how they were to let themselves into that situation
Empty vessels make the most noise.
 
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Tue Apr 20, 2010 6:09 pm

The detailed analysis from Smolensk recreates a horrible picture.
But it can't - obviously - answer the main question: how could have possibly the aircraft found itself so amazigly low?
All alarms should have kept warning the crew.
Radio altimeter was supposed to show those amaizing numbers - 3 meter, 5 meter of altitude.

Reading made me depressed.
 
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Tue Apr 20, 2010 8:53 pm

Quoting pylon101 (Reply 18):
The detailed analysis from Smolensk recreates a horrible picture.

Facts have that sort of habit, in aircraft accidents.

There are quite a lot of discussion on this one : people talking about instrument approaches procedures in Russia, heirloom from the soviet era :
There are three possibilities on the procedure they were shooting :

1/- A GCA approach, which would confirm the initial Russian controller who said that " they stopped acknowledging my messages and they lost altitude very quickly..." required vis is 1000 m.

2/- A very unusual procedure - apparently quite common in the ex-soviet world - in which, the pilots would use two NDBs for the alignment on centerline, while being talked down by a ground operator. I have never heard of that method until to-day, and it seems to me quite dangerous as the pilot has to deal with two mental pictures - one from his instruments on a visual cue, another from a needed "materialisation" of some height orders from the ground (aural / visual cues ). Required vis is 1200 m.

3/- A dual NDB approach. The problem with this letdown is the absence of a glide slope information ; everything is done by stopwatch, down to an MDH of some 200m / 600 ft.
Contrarily to what some may think, the lateral precision of that approach is very good (the deviation of some 45 m at 1500 m from the threshold amount to a precision of less than 2° (and Yes, on that sort of approach, that's "smack on the centerline" ! )

Another image I would have liked to see is a cockpit view of that approach, especially at the point where they started that strange "dive"...was there a visual clue that made them think they were closer to the runway ( and too high, of course ) ?

What makes this subject even more puzzling is that the airfield was in all intents and purposes closed, and the GCA would only have been a "battlefield apparatus" with very little in terms of set procedures for a given airstrip. It could only work on a fixed-for-all type of utilization.

All the above to just say that nothing could have therefore allowed them to even initiate an approach with publicly reported visibilities below 1000 meters.

The Poles have said that they will publish the prelim on Thursday.
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Wed Apr 21, 2010 1:30 am

Quoting Pihero (Reply 14):

A sobering picture. Kudos to the author of that for analyzing the topography around Smolensk-North airbase. Seems like he answered the "how" as he put it. The why though remains to be seen.

Quoting pylon101 (Reply 18):
All alarms should have kept warning the crew.

Would alarms go off when the Tu-154M is in landing configuration? This is an honest question as I don't know about warning systems on the Tu-154M. Since this wasn't an ILS approach, I'm certain "glideslope" was not uttered by the plane.

I noticed the cockpit on this aircraft is different from the "stock" Tu-154M cockpits. Who did the cockpit mod, and what specifically was modified? Was this a custom job for the Polish Air Force? Anyone know?

Quoting Pihero (Reply 19):
The Poles have said that they will publish the prelim on Thursday.

I will certainly be interested in reading it.

If I haven't said so already, may all who perished RIP.  

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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Wed Apr 21, 2010 1:46 am

I just dug up an article from USAToday.

The Polish Tu-154M was equipped with TAWS.

http://www.usatoday.com/travel/fligh...04-13-fog-plane-crash-poland_N.htm

Excerpts

Device spurs questions in Polish crash By Alan Levin, USA TODAY


The Polish jet that crashed short of a runway in fog, killing that nation's president and other top leaders, was equipped with a safety device that warns pilots when they get too close to the ground, the device's manufacturer said Tuesday.

...

The Russian-built Tupolev TU-154 had been equipped with a Terrain Awareness and Warning System (TAWS) made by Universal Avionics Systems of Tucson, said company spokesman John Hamby. He said the company could not discuss the investigation into the crash or other details.

...

Bill Voss, president of the non-profit Flight Safety Foundation, said that the crash may highlight a weakness in the TAWS. Maps of the U.S. and other developed nations are highly accurate, but gaps exist in the maps for countries such as Russia and in the developing world, Voss said.

...





View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Michal Kaczmarek (Wlkp_Spotters)



Why did this plane descend so low????

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pylon101
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Wed Apr 21, 2010 5:59 am

45 meters left off centerline would not be that dramatic - they might have enough time to align. Or go around.

Doesn't TAWS based on radio altimeter data?
Besides standard TU-154M has aureal warning, like " low terrain, low terrain".

All those could be turned off not to distract attention, though.

Anyway the approach should have been based on the altitude of the airfield.

Yes, will be waiting for the report.
 
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Wed Apr 21, 2010 10:16 am

Quoting pylon101 (Reply 22):
45 meters left off centerline would not be that dramatic - they might have enough time to align. Or go around.

It's nothing. Just consider how many non-precision approaches are offset by some degrees.

Quoting pylon101 (Reply 22):

Isn't TAWS based on radio altimeter data?

Yes, but that's the "dumb" part of it : In normal utilization, especially outside some countries which haven't yet adhered to the WGS 84 - or equivalent - model, the system, coupled with the GPS navigation accuracy , generates a terrain model around the aircraft position and warns of potential CFITs.
More on the Tu-154 on-board system on this brochure :Universal TAWS

The problem is that Russia hasn't - for political and financial reasons, I guess - gone to the WGS 84 standard, therefore, the equipment is only equal to an older generation GPWS, i.e based soleley on radio-altimeter and aircraft configuration data.

Quoting pylon101 (Reply 22):
Besides standard TU-154M has aureal warning, like " low terrain, low terrain".

I'm afraid that, considering their landing configuration, the only warning they could have heard were either "SINK RATE !" or "PULL UP !", which, by the way could also explain the ascending trajectory they showed ( the combined airplane descent rate AND the rising terrain could have generated such warning )

Quoting pylon101 (Reply 22):
Anyway the approach should have been based on the altitude of the airfield.

It doesn't really matter : A QNH setting gives you the altitude of your aircraft and , as all approach and en-route charts are based on terrain / feature alitudes, the transition is easy.
On the other hand, a QFE setting, giving the pilot the height relative to the airfield reference point allows - IMO - a better SA of one's descent profile. After all, having an altimeter reading "zero" upon landing makes quite a lot of sense, doesn't it ? So whatever the setting they chose - and I am quite certain that it was QFE as it is standard procedure in Russia, especially using some form of a descent-to-land profile -, provided the altimeters have correctly been set and crosschecked, it won't make any difference.
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Thu Apr 22, 2010 10:29 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 19):
The Poles have said that they will publish the prelim on Thursday.

Has anyone seen any evidence that this occurred?
 
SyeaphanR
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Fri Apr 23, 2010 6:12 am

There's this:

http://www.thenews.pl/international/...-led-to-smolensk-catastrophe-.html

But no sign of the prelim as such...Yet.
 
3MilesToWRO
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Fri Apr 23, 2010 7:20 am

So far nothing new, only a little tide of pointless "news" saying nothing, but keeping the media business running.
This actually includes colonel Pietrzak. Unless his words were heavily severed by the newspaper, he says a pile of incoherences even in Polish.
 
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:32 am

Quoting 3MilesToWRO (Reply 26):
Unless his words were heavily severed by the newspaper, he says a pile of incoherences even in Polish.

Indeed he did ! The article is just a lot of assembled garbage and uneducated twaddle if not outright false technical falsities (?). Witness the TAWS bit.
The only gen maybe worth considering is this :

"The Polish prosecution service is still waiting for Russian investigators content of the black box recorders, Attorney General Andrzej Seremet said Thursday. He told Polish Radio that preliminary results could be accessible to the Polish side “in two weeks”. "

Which contradicts what the Polish officials said last week (they were supposed to have seen - and worked - on the recordings...)
Now, we have to wait another two weeks for them to get the transcripots (?) and then analyze them and only then think of publishing whatever parts they deem informative and newsworthy...of course assuming that they do not disagree with the Russian interpretation... In which case we may even never see any reasonable accident report.
Oh well, the cynical part of me is just saying that it was after all expected.
But I'm still a bit disappointed with the political implications of this accident.
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Fri Apr 23, 2010 5:25 pm

Usually MAK issues complete and objective reports.
Take, for example, A-310 crash in Irkutsk.
Or Perm's B-735 crash.

From the very beginning I mentioned that political reasons would make this investigation difficult.
 
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Aesma
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Sat Apr 24, 2010 6:09 am

Maybe the Poles made a copy of the recordings to be safe but only the Russians are qualified to analyze the data ?
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:49 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 29):
Maybe the Poles made a copy of the recordings to be safe but only the Russians are qualified to analyze the data ?

According to media information from last week, one of the black boxes was sent to Poland. The source indicated three total recorders. Can anyone verify this information?

I'm disappointed by the lack of an initial report. The crash of a VVIP transport is something all nations will be paying attention to.

While it has been confirmed that Kaczynski did NOT pressure the flight crew in this case, it still makes even the folks at Andrews pause. In the end, does the issue of "who's in charge here?" on board Presidential transports need to be addressed?

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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Sat Apr 24, 2010 8:02 pm

I don't really agree with the argument that he didn't pressure them. Sure, he didn't go to the cockpit, but that doesn't mean there wasn't pressure.

I also read somewhere that there was a third recorder.
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Pihero
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Sat Apr 24, 2010 8:30 pm

Quoting pylon101 (Reply 28):
Usually MAK issues complete and objective reports.
Take, for example, A-310 crash in Irkutsk.

Yes, but this accident is heavily politically charged and MAK is very probably having to deal with pressures far outside their "normal" dealings ; plus that third recorder (which I had forgotten about) which comes from Poland and which has to be matched to the other two in Russia...
Actually, I wonder whether the Smolensk group which did that sparkling study of the aircraft final path will be the closest we would see of a "fair and non-partisan" investigation.
Let's face it : the investigators are in a jam :
1/- It's human error and the fingers will be pointing to the "pressure" put on the pilot by some forceful official (with a history of verbal violence).
2/- It's airdrome equipment and the Russians will be responsible for the death of a not-really-favourable Polish president.

In a way, I understand more the delay in releasing the prelim.
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Sun Apr 25, 2010 1:06 pm

Also don´t forget the memories of General Sikorsky, the leader of the WW2 exile Polish Army in the UK. His plane, a B-24, crashed under misterious circumstances off Gibraltar in 1943. The cause for the crash had never been determined, but there are plenty of theories around that Sikorsky´splane weas sabotaged on orders from Stalin, who saw postwar Poland as a country in his sphere of influence and wanted to get rid of the western oriented resistance organisations.

Jan
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AVLnative
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Tue Apr 27, 2010 3:46 pm

From: http://www.thenews.pl/press/?id=130342

Search for cause of Smolensk disaster continues

The location of beacons at the military airfield in Smolensk is not standard, informs RZECZPOSPOLITA.

The paper speculates this might have led to the pilot’s misinterpretation of the actual flight level, which caused the tragic accident of the Polish presidential plane on April 10th. Typically, such beacons are placed 1 and 4 kilometers from the start of the landing strip. This is only partially true at Smolensk, because their location on one side of the airport is 1 and 6 kilometers, respectively. This could certainly explain why on the fatal day the plane had descended to barely a few meters above ground level almost one and a half kilometers short of the runway. Three days earlier the same pilot, flying the same machine, with the Polish PM on board approached from the other side where the beacons are at standard distance. His personal experience coupled with lack of information on the difference between the two approach routes and extreme conditions of dense fog could have brought the tragic effects, is the attempted conclusion.
 
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Tue Apr 27, 2010 11:10 pm

Honestly, I don't k. now what to think about this video. Given the poor resolution one can "see" just about anything and therefore everything is open for all kinds of interpretations

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxIFh3NkEvM

[Edited 2010-04-27 16:10:51]
 
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Wed Apr 28, 2010 2:53 am

Quoting L410Turbolet (Reply 35):
Honestly, I don't k. now what to think about this video.

Reading through all the comments, the last one in English seems to debunk the video as a scam.
 
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Thu Apr 29, 2010 12:41 am

0:46 doesn't match with:

I think it's a hoax... an elaborate one... The trees just don't look the same in that video... the locations of the trees, etc... and comparing with the other videos accepted by the media... somethings in that youtube video doesn't seem to add up...

Mandala499
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Fri Apr 30, 2010 8:00 am

Quoting L410Turbolet (Reply 35):
Honestly, I don't k. now what to think about this video.

I guess it's best to think what Stanisław Lem once said: "I didn't know there are so many idiots in the world until I started using Internet"  
This video, being technically doctored or not, is just a making a scandal out of nothing. One mostly sees what he's told do see by these comments.
 
AVLnative
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Sat May 01, 2010 12:20 pm

From: http://english.ruvr.ru/2010/04/30/7156819.html

As part of the investigation into the tragic accident, the Polish Prosecutor General’s office is looking into the four preliminary versions of the Polish President Lech Kaczynski's plane crash.

As you might remember, the Polish Air Force Tu-154 plane crashed near Smolensk in the early hours of April the 10th. There were Polish President Lech Kaczynski and the government officials, accompanying him, including the six chiefs of staff of all branches of the armed forces, aboard the plane. The delegation was on its way to Katyn, aiming to take part in the memorial events, dedicated to the 70th anniversary of the Katyn Forest Massacre, when many Polish servicemen were killed by Soviet Secret police punitive detachments.

The Polish Prosecutor General’s office said in a communiqué that the possible causes of the Smolensk tragedy are these: a technical failure, a crew mistake, poor flight management and security, and third party’s actions. Thus, there’re four versions at the moment. The latter means a terrorist attack or pressure that was put on the crew. According to the earlier reports, shortly before the crash President Lech Kaszynski himself gave his pilots an order to land, ignoring the fact that the air traffic controllers said that it would be no good to land at the Smolensk Airport in thick fog and advized him to land at a reserve airfield.

(Remainder of article at link)
 
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pylon101
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Sun May 02, 2010 7:22 pm

MAK is extremely reserved in releasing information.
They have been making point in each update that they keep doing investigation with Polish collegues.
Unfortunately weird articles started to appear in tabloids. Yeah, about a conspiracy plot.

Sooner or later MAK will have to balance their position with Polish authorities - and come up with a report.
 
AVLnative
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Sun May 09, 2010 12:20 pm

Interesting article from http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/...+president+twin/2997698/story.html

Highlights below - more info at link

Poland should take over probe of Russia crash: late president's twin

Poland's opposition, led by the identical twin of the country's late president, said on Thursday it wants Warsaw to take over the probe into the plane crash in which the head of state died this month.

Jaroslaw Kaczynski's Law and Justice (PiS) party hit out at Moscow's handling of the inquiry into the April 10 crash in Smolensk in western Russia, which claimed the lives of Lech Kaczynski along with 95 others.

"This investigation is flawed," said lawmaker Arkadiusz Mularczyk.

PiS spokesman Mariusz Blaszczak said the party was concerned after video footage of the crash site suggested it was not being properly protected.
 
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Buyantukhaa
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Sun May 09, 2010 1:22 pm

Quoting AVLNative (Reply 41):
Poland's opposition, led by the identical twin of the country's late president, said on Thursday it wants Warsaw to take over the probe into the plane crash in which the head of state died this month.

They should read ICAO Annex 13 and refer to Chapter 5.
I scratch my head, therefore I am.
 
Pihero
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Wed May 19, 2010 8:53 am

New development :
Just heard on the radio France Info news that a preliminary report talks about :
- the crew warned twice that "landing was impossible" due weather conditions.
- "a few people not on the crew list" were present in the cockpit during the approach.

Don't know what it means as I can't get any other reference on the news web.
Contrail designer
 
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Buyantukhaa
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Wed May 19, 2010 9:33 am

Quoting Pihero (Reply 43):
Don't know what it means as I can't get any other reference on the news web.

Confirmed here:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/europe/10125435.stm

And in the Polish press:

http://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/Wiadomos...sy_osob_spoza_zalogi__Wstepny.html

the latter article talks about about voiceS in the cockpit, so more than one.
I scratch my head, therefore I am.
 
MD11Engineer
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Wed May 19, 2010 11:03 am

Quoting BuyantUkhaa (Reply 42):
Quoting AVLNative (Reply 41):
Poland's opposition, led by the identical twin of the country's late president, said on Thursday it wants Warsaw to take over the probe into the plane crash in which the head of state died this month.

They should read ICAO Annex 13 and refer to Chapter 5.

ICAO deals with civilian aircraft. The Polish plane was military.

Jan
Je Suis Charlie et je suis Ahmet aussi
 
Burkhard
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Wed May 19, 2010 11:40 am

It will be more than interesting to learn who else was in the cockpit. If one of these persons wasn't a pilot but from presidential stuff, we could conclude that there was civil pressure on the pilots. It it only were experienced pilots than it could be accepted.

In the first case. Mr. Lech Kaczynski would have to be charged post mortem to kill 93 people.
 
kalvado
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Wed May 19, 2010 1:27 pm

Another interesting detail in MAK news feed:
Captain's total is 3480 hours, FO - 1900 hours.
Isn't regional FO's in US supposed to have at least 2000 hours by now?
 
AVLnative
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Wed May 19, 2010 3:02 pm

Quoting BuyantUkhaa (Reply 44):
And in the Polish press:

Can a Polish speaker add any information from this article? Looks like the fifth voice was female:

http://www.tvn24.pl/12690,1654929,0,...s-w-kabinie-pilotow,wiadomosc.html
 
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Aesma
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RE: Polish AF Tu-154 Crash In Smolensk (Part 2)

Wed May 19, 2010 5:29 pm

I just read on a French newspaper's website ( http://www.lepoint.fr/actualites-mon...-equipage-n-etait-pas/924/0/456483 ) that the Polish agency PAP is saying that one of the voice is identified as the voice of the chief commander of the air force Andrzej Blasik, according to an anonymous source close to the inquiry.

I guess he wasn't there to tell them to take all precautions.
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