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kanban
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F-35 Software To Be At Least 4 Years Late

Tue Mar 15, 2011 5:18 pm

An article today indicates the software scheduled to be done this year will not be ready until 2015.. The author is generous but I sense that is a target moving away rather than coming closer.

"Each of the remaining three blocks” needed for full war- fighting capability “are now projected to slip more than three years” compared with the current schedule, set in 2006, Michael Sullivan, the GAO director of acquisition management, told the panel. The final block, originally scheduled for this year, isn’t anticipated until 2015, he said. "

“After more than nine years in development” including four years of overlapping low-rate production, “the program has not fully demonstrated the aircraft design is stable, manufacturing processes are mature and the system is reliable,” said GAO.

Only 4 percent of the aircraft’s capabilities have been completely verified by flight tests, laboratory results, or both, GAO said. “The pace of flight testing accelerated significantly in 2010 but overall progress is still much below plans forecast several years ago.”

Total labor hours required to produce test aircraft have increased instead of diminished -- an indication of “lingering management inefficiencies,” said GAO. Hours to complete assembly of test aircraft last year “exceeded budgeted hours by more than 1.5 million,” for example.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...re-delays-gao-says.html?cmpid=yhoo
 
oly720man
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RE: F-35 Software To Be At Least 4 Years Late

Tue Mar 15, 2011 8:58 pm

I really do wonder at times whether all the high-tech is worth the protracted pain of actually getting it working. It's all very well having an aircraft that's at the forefront of technology (or technologies), but is it technology for the sake of technology rather than for what's actually needed?

And eventually you end up with a plane that's too expensive to be bought because of all the development work that went into it.
wheat and dairy can screw up your brain
 
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Faro
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RE: F-35 Software To Be At Least 4 Years Late

Wed Mar 16, 2011 4:52 pm

Flight Global reporting that the Canadians will be paying an average price of USD 148.5 million per unit for 65 aircraft. That's the price of a 763ER. Patently ridiculous. Add the cost of the late software and God knows what other unforeseen costs/delays and the F-35 will soon be as expensive as an A332. That is just plain out of control for a fighter which is to be mass produced for NATO and other air forces. It seems there are simply no limits anymore...

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...cost-estimate-soars-66-report.html

Faro
The chalice not my son
 
Devilfish
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RE: F-35 Software To Be At Least 4 Years Late

Wed Mar 16, 2011 6:36 pm

Countries wanting stealth fighters but can't get those at the moment have four options.....

1) Settle for any of these 4.5 Gen fighters.....

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ja676MG45Zg/S7Ci_sG3yGI/AAAAAAAAC5g/MNYxpMNTf4w/s1600/rafale-front-section.jpg
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ja676MG45Z...f4w/s1600/rafale-front-section.jpg

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_JcIe4EsmDYA/TVHbbK2CS3I/AAAAAAAABKk/ygjpXPKWz-4/s1600/Eurofighter+Typhoon.jpg
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_JcIe4EsmDY...Wz-4/s1600/Eurofighter+Typhoon.jpg

.
http://themoderatevoice.com/wordpres.../dr-e/f-15-silent-eagle-boeing.jpg

2) Hope others who have the program complete their projects and buy from them.....

3) Curb their desires and maintain the status quo.....

4) Or if they really need and could afford it - just wait for the F-35 a little bit longer.

No, the Raptor is not an option.  

[Edited 2011-03-16 11:57:25]
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
Kiwirob
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RE: F-35 Software To Be At Least 4 Years Late

Thu Mar 17, 2011 7:54 am

I think the F35 coffin in Norway is about to be rolled out, if opposition parties have there way it will be nailed shut sometime soon. It looks like the price has gone up 8 times 2008 when the decision was made, ironic when one of the govts stated reason for chosing the F35 was that it's cheaper than Gripen NG.

Quote:
Norwegian politicians are once again deeply concerned by reports of soaring prices for the US-made fighter jets that the government has agreed to buy. Newspaper Dagsavisen reported Tuesday that the price may have jumped from the NOK 18 billion approved by the Parliament, to an astonishing NOK 144 billion.
http://www.newsinenglish.no/2011/03/...ncerns-fly-over-fighter-jet-costs/
 
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Faro
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RE: F-35 Software To Be At Least 4 Years Late

Thu Mar 17, 2011 9:16 am

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 4):

I think the F35 coffin in Norway is about to be rolled out, if opposition parties have there way it will be nailed shut sometime soon. It looks like the price has gone up 8 times 2008 when the decision was made, ironic when one of the govts stated reason for chosing the F35 was that it's cheaper than Gripen NG.

You sometimes wonder whether the people who are willing to press ahead with the F-35 regardless of cost are bona fide politicians or teen-age aviation enthusiasts...8x initial cost estimate is just farcical...

Faro
The chalice not my son
 
sebolino
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RE: F-35 Software To Be At Least 4 Years Late

Thu Mar 17, 2011 1:42 pm

Quoting faro (Reply 5):
8x initial cost estimate is just farcical...

I guess the plane had 8 price raises, but the price wasn't multiplied by 8 ...

[Edited 2011-03-17 06:42:51]
 
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kanban
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RE: F-35 Software To Be At Least 4 Years Late

Thu Mar 17, 2011 4:55 pm

Quoting sebolino (Reply 6):
I guess the plane had 8 price raises, but the price wasn't multiplied by 8 ...

there is a plan to make it an 8 seater to keep the cost per seat mile down around the original spec....      
 
tommytoyz
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RE: F-35 Software To Be At Least 4 Years Late

Fri Mar 18, 2011 9:11 am

I think this program is in gander of being canceled. If many nations cut their orders or cancel outright due to the increases, it will further spiral the [rice upward for those still in to the point where it is ridiculous and also cancel, etc...

F-15 4.5 anyone?

And who really needs stealth ground attack manned aircraft, when we are getting unmanned ground attack aircraft? We also have Jstars and Awacs that can guide 4.5 and 4.5 gen ground attack aircraft in with stand off weapons. No?
 
Kiwirob
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RE: F-35 Software To Be At Least 4 Years Late

Fri Mar 18, 2011 11:04 am

Quoting sebolino (Reply 6):
I guess the plane had 8 price raises, but the price wasn't multiplied by 8 ...

The original price was 18 billion NOK, now it's apparently 144 billion NOK, 8 times higher.
 
agill
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RE: F-35 Software To Be At Least 4 Years Late

Fri Mar 18, 2011 12:29 pm

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 4):

I think the F35 coffin in Norway is about to be rolled out, if opposition parties have there way it will be nailed shut sometime soon. It looks like the price has gone up 8 times 2008 when the decision was made, ironic when one of the govts stated reason for chosing the F35 was that it's cheaper than Gripen NG.

Considering the wikileaks thing surrounding this deal it would be pretty ironic if this happened.
 
ebj1248650
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RE: F-35 Software To Be At Least 4 Years Late

Sat Mar 19, 2011 1:56 am

What happens next? We go for a new airplane design and the process repeats itself except that the dollar figures are even higher. Fix the management problems! Set realistic goals! The ideas behind the F-35 are great but were they ever realistic, given the time it's taken to get the airplane as far as it's come?
Dare to dream; dream big!
 
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Francoflier
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RE: F-35 Software To Be At Least 4 Years Late

Sun Mar 20, 2011 10:39 pm

Quoting oly720man (Reply 1):
It's all very well having an aircraft that's at the forefront of technology (or technologies), but is it technology for the sake of technology rather than for what's actually needed?

Good question.

I suppose the political need of an indigenous, or at least partially local, aircraft which would create local jobs and stimulate the country's economy is always a factor. Throw in lobbies from big arms manufacturers and vote-seeking politicians and you get recurring financial fiascos, even if the products are pretty good when they finally come out.

Many of the countries involved in the F-35 could have sourced some much cheaper off-the-shelf fighters like Gripens of F-16/18s which would have more than covered all their tactical needs, especially if you put all of this in the current context of drastic budget cuts and belt tightening for many Western Air Forces.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
Kiwirob
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RE: F-35 Software To Be At Least 4 Years Late

Mon Mar 21, 2011 8:00 am

Quoting DEVILFISH (Reply 3):
4) Or if they really need and could afford it - just wait for the F-35 a little bit longer.

I don't think anybody really needs it. Maybe the US, but they could build more F-22's for less so I don't see the point in this aircraft.
 
sebolino
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RE: F-35 Software To Be At Least 4 Years Late

Mon Mar 21, 2011 1:15 pm

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 9):
The original price was 18 billion NOK, now it's apparently 144 billion NOK, 8 times higher.

OK.
If true, I don't see why a customer would NOT cancel the deal ... It would be stupid.
 
rheinwaldner
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RE: F-35 Software To Be At Least 4 Years Late

Tue Mar 22, 2011 9:00 am

But why is the US/Western fighter industry not able to design a new aircraft?

Assume you start from scratch: what factor would cause another outcome?

The best design, the best company, the country with the largest industry and the project with the highest stakes seem to fail. What and who else could ever design a new fighter? The Chinese?

Some decades ago during a timespan as long as F-35 development takes many completely new fighter generations were fielded to the frontlines and became obsolete when the next new model appeared....
 
sebolino
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RE: F-35 Software To Be At Least 4 Years Late

Tue Mar 22, 2011 9:32 am

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 15):
But why is the US/Western fighter industry not able to design a new aircraft?

The F-22 is brand new isn't it ? And I had the feeling (maybe wrong) that it was more advanced than the F-35.
So I guess the problem lies in this particular program.
Building a fighter that must be able to do everything while being stealth is perhaps not so easy after all ...
 
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Faro
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RE: F-35 Software To Be At Least 4 Years Late

Tue Mar 22, 2011 10:36 am

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 15):
But why is the US/Western fighter industry not able to design a new aircraft

Short answer: i) stealth capability, ii) all-embracing sensor suites & iii) software.

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 15):
What and who else could ever design a new fighter? The Chinese?

With their unexpectedly new stealth fighter, yes.

Faro
The chalice not my son
 
oly720man
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RE: F-35 Software To Be At Least 4 Years Late

Tue Mar 22, 2011 10:54 am

Quoting sebolino (Reply 16):
The F-22 is brand new isn't it ?

It's new in to service (2005).

YF-22 first flight 1990
F-22 first flight 1997

8 years from first flight to service entry. Quite a long birth, really. Almost double the time for some other earlier aircraft.

Compare with
F-15 1972->1976
F-14 1970->1974
F-18 1979->1983 C/D
F-18 1995->1999 E/F
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kanban
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RE: F-35 Software To Be At Least 4 Years Late

Tue Mar 22, 2011 5:41 pm

Quoting rheinwaldner (Reply 15):
But why is the US/Western fighter industry not able to design a new aircraft?



the key problem is not that the manufacturer's can not design and build one, it's that Congress wants to have a say in every piece and assign second-tier suppliers of systems that are superfluous.. then the manufacturer has to make all this garbage work.... the second problem is that there is no clear mission as there was during a war of even the cold war... so the congress insists that it be able to handle everything. In wartime one builds simple single or dual mission planes and builds them quickly and cheaply.. Today's manufacturer has to take into account the Chinese, Russians, Irani9ans, and being able to knock down our own designs now owned by questionable "allies" Israel, Iraq, Venezuela, Pakistan... and be able to operate in a theater no bigger than Andorra
 
sebolino
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RE: F-35 Software To Be At Least 4 Years Late

Wed Mar 23, 2011 5:23 pm

Quoting oly720man (Reply 18):
8 years from first flight to service entry. Quite a long birth, really. Almost double the time for some other earlier aircraft.

Compare with
F-15 1972->1976
F-14 1970->1974
F-18 1979->1983 C/D
F-18 1995->1999 E/F

Well it's not that much compared to European programs:

EF typhoon : 1994 -> 2004 (and the first flight was very late)
Rafale : 1986 -> 2001

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