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Francoflier
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Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Thu Mar 01, 2012 1:40 am

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...ighter-japan-idUSTRE81S0G420120229

Another crisis to weather for the F-35?

Or is this just an idle threat? I can't see what else the JAF could go for. F-18s?
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
Powerslide
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Thu Mar 01, 2012 6:46 am

No more than political pressure, it has been done before yet no one has left the F35 program. Japan isn't stupid enough to fly 4th gen aircraft half way into the decade when 6th gen will be available.
 
ebj1248650
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Thu Mar 01, 2012 11:18 am

They're concerned the price will get out of hand and they won't be able to afford the plane. That's completely understandable. It's interesting that Lockheed states the U.S. government determines the price per plane that Japan will pay.
Dare to dream; dream big!
 
Oroka
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Thu Mar 01, 2012 4:27 pm

lol, they just ordered the plane, the cost increases have been ongoing for years... this is just the obligatory complaining by government opposition parties trying to make trouble.

What country that has ordered the F-35 has not complained about price or warned they are considering thinking about discussing cancelling the F-35 order.

Japan will get its F-35s, they would be insane not to. New F-15K/SE, F/A-18EFs, F-16E/V... unless used, old blocks, or very basic configuration are in the $100m range, the same price as theF-35, for an inferior aircraft.
 
Devilfish
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Thu Mar 01, 2012 10:20 pm

Maybe this will improve their outlook.....

http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/th...op-gun-2-will-rock-the-f-35-t.html

Quote:
"Maverick is becoming an F-35 test pilot.

It's true.

Tom Burbage, the Lockheed Martin F-35 programme manager, showed up at a National Aeronautics Association luncheon today and dropped a bombshell of a Hollywood scoop. Sure, there was talk about schedules and budgets, partners and politics, software blocks and carrier hooks. But we'll get to that later.

The big news from Burbage's speech involves Top Gun 2, the long-not-quite-awaited-but-certainly-delayed sequel of the 1986 fighter jock classic."


http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/ai..._c/2012/01/nightflight-150693.html

Complete with twists and characters.....how about that for a sequel?   

Wonder what nickname they'd give the Lightning II.....GANDER???  


[Edited 2012-03-01 14:39:31]
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Thu Mar 01, 2012 11:10 pm

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 1):
Japan isn't stupid enough to fly 4th gen aircraft half way into the decade when 6th gen will be available.

Which fighters are 6th generation?

Quoting Oroka (Reply 3):
Japan will get its F-35s, they would be insane not to. New F-15K/SE, F/A-18EFs, F-16E/V... unless used, old blocks, or very basic configuration are in the $100m range, the same price as theF-35, for an inferior aircraft.

The F-35 is a lot more than $100M each. The F-15SE/K, F/A-18E/F, F-16E/F/V are all avaiable a lot earlier than the F-35 will be. The F-35 is not the everything to everybody fighter some think it is.
 
bennett123
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Thu Mar 01, 2012 11:11 pm

Oroka

Perhaps the prices of these other types is more predictable?.
 
DiamondFlyer
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Thu Mar 01, 2012 11:45 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 5):
The F-35 is a lot more than $100M each

Isn't it north of $150M each?

-DiamondFlyer
From my cold, dead hands
 
Oroka
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Thu Mar 01, 2012 11:52 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 5):
The F-35 is a lot more than $100M each.

Yes, the F-35 is more now, but that price has steadily gone down, and should continue to do so over the next few years. The current trend of ordering small batches is keeping that price higher, when production is in full swing, the jet will be cheaper. How much cheaper, im sure no one has a final answer to that.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 5):
The F-15SE/K, F/A-18E/F, F-16E/F/V are all avaiable a lot earlier than the F-35 will be.

Unless Japans F-4s are rattling apart, and with tensions easing with N Korea, Im sure Japan can wait a bit for a better jet.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 5):
The F-35 is not the everything to everybody fighter some think it is.

I dont think it will be a wonder jet, but it is a step up from even gen 4.5 fighters. Fighters are really something you shouldnt skimp on if you can manage it, that is why all the countries that can afford it are sticking with the F-35.

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 6):
Perhaps the prices of these other types is more predictable?.

Hazards of buying something that is not finished. No, it will never be the $60m jet that was promised, but it will not be the $150m jet the F-22 is.
 
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9MMPQ
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Fri Mar 02, 2012 10:09 am

Well, with all the economic problems in the world it really shoudn't surprise anyone. A lot of things are under scrutiny nowadays & the F-35 with it's problems will be no different.

Is it really the ''must have'' hardware it's made out to be now ? I can certainly see the attraction in going for a cheaper readily available aircraft. Especially if the need for stealth capabilities may be questionable. But in the end, with so much invested, i doubt anyone has the guts to completely pull out.

Quoting Devilfish (Reply 4):
Maybe this will improve their outlook.....

http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/th...op-gun-2-will-rock-the-f-35-t.html

Quote:
"Maverick is becoming an F-35 test pilot.

Won't be able to repeat the former glory the first ''Top Gun'' had. I'll have a stab at a scenario.

I bet Maverick is a very good F-35 test pilot, until he has a crisis of confidence & can't be a F-35 test pilot aymore. Then he meets a good looking woman who helps him overcome his crisis of confidence & helps him become a better F35 test pilot. Add crash, fiery explosions & cool flying shots & we're there 
I believe in coincidences. Coincidences happen every day. But I don't trust coincidences.
 
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Francoflier
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Fri Mar 02, 2012 11:47 am

Can we at least expect real air to air footage in from that new Top Gun movie?
It's what made the old one a 'good' movie.
Now if they plan on coming up with full CGI aerial shots, count me out.

As for Japan, they'll basically either buy the F-35 or keep flying 'old' generation aircrafts until the next century...
They're certainly not going to get European aircrafts, much less Russian ones.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
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ptrjong
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Fri Mar 02, 2012 12:23 pm

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 1):

Fighter generations are a crap concept.
The only difference between me and a madman is that I am not mad (Salvador Dali)
 
Bnclar
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Fri Mar 02, 2012 12:35 pm

Which foreign country is the closest to be able to buy the F22? ( not that it is for sale to foreign air forces)


It feels like Japan would be the likeliest candidate after say Canada and UK.
 
MD11Engineer
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Fri Mar 02, 2012 2:33 pm

The problem for Lockheed and the US government is that if too many countries cancel their orders, the prices for the remaining aircraft will become way too expensive.

Jan
Je Suis Charlie et je suis Ahmet aussi
 
Oroka
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Fri Mar 02, 2012 2:43 pm

Quoting Bnclar (Reply 12):
Which foreign country is the closest to be able to buy the F22?

Japan, Australia... Canada wouldnt have a pure air dominance fighter. I dont ever remember hearing about any interest from the UK.

Quoting 9MMPQ (Reply 9):
Is it really the ''must have'' hardware it's made out to be now ? I can certainly see the attraction in going for a cheaper readily available aircraft. Especially if the need for stealth capabilities may be questionable. But in the end, with so much invested, i doubt anyone has the guts to completely pull out.

Unless there is a dire need (ie RAAF buying F/A-18EFGs), why buy a old design to save a few bucks? Wait a few years, get something that will be top of the line for at least another decade rather than already second rate.
 
Devilfish
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Fri Mar 02, 2012 4:21 pm

Quoting 9MMPQ (Reply 9):
Add crash, fiery explosions & cool flying shots & we're there

Imagine he got lost somewhere off the Canadian northwest, came face to face with PAK-FA and J-20 on combat exercise, and couldn't communicate with his home base.  .

Quoting francoflier (Reply 10):
Now if they plan on coming up with full CGI aerial shots, count me out.

"Real" simulator time and those will have to do...with the Russian and Chinese stealth fighters...and if a Silent Eagle from AK had to come in to save its behind because it still hadn't completed its weapons trials.  

Alone, they could do all the magnificent live aerial shots of it they want. Gone there!  

[Edited 2012-03-02 08:35:06]
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
wingscrubber
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Fri Mar 02, 2012 7:45 pm

I feel compelled to post a link to some Chinese animated fighter-jet comedy I stumbled accross recently.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evjHR5NiwsQ&feature=share
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connies4ever
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Fri Mar 02, 2012 9:26 pm

Quoting Oroka (Reply 14):
Japan, Australia... Canada wouldnt have a pure air dominance fighter. I dont ever remember hearing about any interest from the UK.

Actually, I rather think that is exactly what we need, rather than a bomb truck. But of course they're unavailable. Also seems to be something of a hangar queen.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
Oroka
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Sat Mar 03, 2012 12:05 am

We cant afford to have a dedicated air dominance and a dedicated attack fighter. The F-35 will be good at attack, and decent at air to air. Realistically, if there is something our F-35s cant safely handle... we have some buddies who can (NORAD).
 
Ozair
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Sat Mar 03, 2012 2:09 am

Quoting Oroka (Reply 18):
We cant afford to have a dedicated air dominance and a dedicated attack fighter. The F-35 will be good at attack, and decent at air to air. Realistically, if there is something our F-35s cant safely handle... we have some buddies who can (NORAD).

Most people also don't realise the F-35 has a 50% greater range than the F-22 with the same internal fuel load. For Canada an extra 200nm might be an important difference?
 
connies4ever
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Sat Mar 03, 2012 3:21 am

Quoting Oroka (Reply 18):
We cant afford to have a dedicated air dominance and a dedicated attack fighter. The F-35 will be good at attack, and decent at air to air. Realistically, if there is something our F-35s cant safely handle... we have some buddies who can (NORAD).

Perhaps I was not clear: we need something like the F-22 far more than the F-35. The F-35 is intended to fight an aggressive war whereas the F-22 is a defensive weapon system. But, again, not available.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
Powerslide
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Sat Mar 03, 2012 4:18 am

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 20):
The F-35 is intended to fight an aggressive war whereas the F-22 is a defensive weapon system.

Pretty sure both are designed to fight both in the offensive and defense roles. The F-35 does A/A much better than the F-22 does A/G.
 
tommytoyz
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Sat Mar 03, 2012 9:36 am

Quoting Oroka (Reply 8):
Yes, the F-35 is more now, but that price has steadily gone down, and should continue to do so over the next few years.

This is 100% false. The full rate production price is not yet known and the LRIP prices have gone up at every turn with each tranche being more expensive than the next. The next LRIP tranche will be the most expensive yet per plane.

The latest F-35 prices are going way up. LRIP-5 prices are:

USAF F-35A, $125M + $25M per engine, Total $150M
U.S. Navy carrier variant F-35C, $156M + $28M per engine, Total $184M
USMC F-35B STOVL, $142M + $129M per engine, Total $271M

Don't believe it? PW contract release is here:

http://timemilitary.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/engine-contracts.png

These prices are higher than LRIP-4 prices.

[Edited 2012-03-03 01:38:00]
 
connies4ever
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Sat Mar 03, 2012 9:56 am

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 21):
Pretty sure both are designed to fight both in the offensive and defense roles. The F-35 does A/A much better than the F-22 does A/G.

But as an air dominance fighter, F-22 is designed to intercept and destroy attacking aircraft, all well and good. Not much different than what the Arrow was intended to do, although the F-22 should do it much better. I don't think anyone will argue with the idea of defending sovereign territory.

F-35 is intended to attack specific targets close to a land force in the battlespace -- not really something Canada should be considering. In that scenario I believe Canadian forces would be acting more or less at the behest of America, as I cannot see Canada ever launching a conflict on its' own. We simply don't have the resources, or, I believe, the inclination as a nation. It's role as an interceptor is secondary. Besides, with the apparently continuing price rise, it's likely we won't see a 65 aircraft fleet, and therefore it's viability as an effective force comes into some question.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
tommytoyz
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Sat Mar 03, 2012 9:11 pm

What people should realize regarding Japan, is that the Japanese government, as a percentage of their GDP, has an outstanding debt greater than any other industrialized country, as measured as a percentage of the economic output or GDP. I assume this makes them very budget concerned and constrained. I think that's why they are already making noises and are not bluffing, should the price not hold - and neither are the Italians. The effects of the financial meltdown in 2007/2008 is seen on all countries' deficits. The chart below tells the story:


Japan has the highest debt and Italy nmbr 2 - percentage of Economic Output



FYI, Greece has and outstanding debt of 165% of GDP and going higher, because GDP is shrinking and debt in increasing - at the same time, yikes! But still well below Japan's. When you think about F-35 price sensitivity for each country, you might want to keep these charts in mind. Some countries can tolerate price increases more than others.

Another F-35 country in these charts is the UK. It was virtuous till 2007/2008 - after which it went ballistic and the unemployment rate is still at a 17 year high. And they might have finished, brand new aircraft carriers sailing around with no F-35s or Harriers on them. And the UK Navy hasn't even budgeted for the support vessels yet for far flung deployments of the carriers - all this amid defense budget cuts.

I suggest to keep all this in mind as they are facts.

[Edited 2012-03-03 13:29:55]
 
Oroka
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Sun Mar 04, 2012 1:23 am

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 23):
Besides, with the apparently continuing price rise, it's likely we won't see a 65 aircraft fleet, and therefore it's viability as an effective force comes into some question.

65 is the bare minimum our air force can operate with. 2 x 24 jet sqn, 1 x 12 training sqn. i would expect more to be added at a later date to cover losses, testing, and maintenance.
 
connies4ever
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Sun Mar 04, 2012 8:52 am

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 24):
FYI, Greece has and outstanding debt of 165% of GDP and going higher, because GDP is shrinking and debt in increasing - at the same time, yikes! But still well below Japan's. When you think about F-35 price sensitivity for each country, you might want to keep these charts in mind. Some countries can tolerate price increases more than others.

Japan's debt problem is actually worse than that, since the population is now going down, but the average age in society is going up. Therefore, fewer workers available to enable industry to generate things to help pay down the massive debt.
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
 
jouy31
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Sun Mar 04, 2012 1:56 pm

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 26):
Japan's debt problem is actually worse than that, since the population is now going down,

On the other hand, it is not as bad as in other countries, since the Japanese debt is held mostly by Japanese nationals and institutions.

[Edited 2012-03-04 05:57:23]
 
ThePointblank
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Thu Mar 08, 2012 3:22 am

Quoting tommytoyz (Reply 22):

This is 100% false. The full rate production price is not yet known and the LRIP prices have gone up at every turn with each tranche being more expensive than the next. The next LRIP tranche will be the most expensive yet per plane.

The latest F-35 prices are going way up. LRIP-5 prices are:

USAF F-35A, $125M + $25M per engine, Total $150M
U.S. Navy carrier variant F-35C, $156M + $28M per engine, Total $184M
USMC F-35B STOVL, $142M + $129M per engine, Total $271M

Don't believe it? PW contract release is here:

http://timemilitary.files.wordpress.com/2011/12/engine-contracts.png

These prices are higher than LRIP-4 prices.

Because the US government has gutted the LRIP production schedule, meaning planned costs savings from ramping up production do no occur. Compare last year's budget projections to this year's (FY2012 to FY2013) and you will see why the LRIP slowdown was such a BAD idea.

When you stretch out the delivery schedule and cut units, you create a lot of inefficiencies. That's unavoidable. While cutting units may save money now, it will cost you more in the future.
 
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kanban
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Thu Mar 08, 2012 5:10 pm

Quoting ThePointblank (Reply 28):
When you stretch out the delivery schedule and cut units, you create a lot of inefficiencies. That's unavoidable. While cutting units may save money now, it will cost you more in the future.


on the other hand building large quantities of a/c requiring post roll out rework including structural work is twice to three times as costly a slowing the production down and fixing the problem before assembly. Also indications are that the electronics won't be there so any practical use of those unmodified a/c is limited (looks like limited to making movies    )
 
Powerslide
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Thu Mar 08, 2012 6:17 pm

Quoting kanban (Reply 29):
on the other hand building large quantities of a/c requiring post roll out rework including structural work is twice to three times as costly a slowing the production down and fixing the problem before assembly.

Is this opinion or fact?
 
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kanban
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Thu Mar 08, 2012 11:41 pm

Both, based on years in a/c manufacturing... Also comes from studies supporting the Toyota Production system.. Rework is very expensive and the deeper into the structure who have to go the higher the costs. And then there is the documentation..
 
ThePointblank
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RE: Japan May Cancel F-35 Order

Fri Mar 09, 2012 2:20 am

Quoting kanban (Reply 29):
Also indications are that the electronics won't be there so any practical use of those unmodified a/c is limited (looks like limited to making movies )

Actually, the current LRIP aircraft will be considered combat capable at the Block 2B stage. What you are hearing is about the Block 4 modification, which is considered a major software upgrade for F-35, which adds capability above and beyond that of current aircraft. The list of capabilities they are planning to add at the Block 4 stage is pretty staggering. Remember, F-35's avionics architecture is based off of hardened IBM Power PC processors that are easily upgradable and replaced for additional capabilities.

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