Well there's a large replacement market (aircraft don't fly forever) & the 60 yr old C-130 has become small / is now in low rate production.
The C-17 out of production. How much analyses do you need, when there is no competition ?
Not sure why you think there is no competition. As already indicated, there is the KC-390, C-2, IL-476, C-130J. As demonstrated by the article I posted earlier on the NZ potential for an A400M acquisition the requirement to move an armored vehicle or medium helicopter can be fulfilled by commercial contractors. It is far more economical for most nations to contract that work out than acquire and operate an A400M sized aircraft, especially when most flights are made to paved runways.
Additionally, the C-130J is currently running at a production rate of 24 airframes per year until 2020 and will likely see additional US orders into the mid 2020s.
What will the US Marines, Koreans, Aussi's, Italians, Scandinavians, Israelis, India, Indonesia, South Africa buy in the next 10 years. C-130's ?
Your list is pretty bleak.
- The US Marines have no need for the A400M. Anything bigger than C-130 is handled by AMC.
- Australia has the C-17, C-130J and C-27. When the time is right for the RAAF to replace the C-130J the C-130J is a good candidate. The A400M provides no additional capability for the RAAF that they cannot fulfill with a C-17/C-130/C-27 combination.
- Italians perhaps have a requirement when the current C-130 fleet requires replacement but again the C-130 is a good option. Italy also doesn't have a history of expeditionary operations.
- In the KC-390 thread we have some good support for either additional C-130s or KC-390s for most Scandinavian nations. The A400M is simply too big and none of them have a requirement to move weight the distances you have indicated.
- Israel has no need for the A400M, it is not exactly a large country...
- India has just purchased C -130 and C-17. They may have a requirement for more tactical lift but given their more pressing tactical fighter requirements I doubt there is sufficient funding available for additional transport aircraft but an A400M order is certainly possible.
- Indonesia has already clearly stated any A400M order would be for 5 or less airframes. They see no requirement for more. Indonesia also has an extensive sea based transport system that allows them to carry heavy vehicles for a lot less cost than large transport aircraft provide.
- South Africa can't afford to fly much of anything. They already cancelled their order and it would take a massive economic turn around or significant subsidies from Europe to make that order a reality.
So from your list above, you might
get 30 airframes, add in perhaps 20 more for odds and ends, some of which may come second hand from Germany and you have an additional 3-5 years of production.
I think everybody knows. From a buyer standpoint, denying you need anything is the best negotiation strategy when there really is no alternative.
Sure...I think you need some economic reality to set in. l already indicated there is competition and militaries don't work the way most commercial companies do. They have to define a requirement and then appropriate sufficient funding from government to acquire the capability. Hence it is years of white papers and capability reviews before acquisition occurs, all of which is usually in the public record.
Compared to "C-X" R&D done in the US the A400M is cheap in any respect.
I don't think you want to argue on A400M program costs....