WIederling
Posts: 5899
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Wed Mar 07, 2018 8:56 am

Nean1 wrote:
The Airbus plane has not yet managed to get rid of a troublesome maintenance reputation. In the link below there is information about availability even worse than the worst suspicions, this in a high-level technical air force:

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... va-446491/

"......These include the air force's Airbus Defence & Space A400Ms, which boasted a deployability rate of 38%, or just three of the service's 15-aircraft total......."


The Bundeswehr currently seems to have nothing in their arsenal that they don't have issues with.

Cause is rather easy:

de Mezier ordered ( when on the job some years ago ) that spares may only be procured when they are
needed. ( making budget cuts possible ). That seems to include stuff for regular maintainance too.
( no sub is working, few helos are working ( independent of manufacturer. .. )
The only type reasonably available is the Airbus helo based on a civil version.
Those parts needed seem to be available on shorter notice from the civil market.

Ulla von der Lügen has not changed this. But is adamant that fault is with the manufacturers.
In the position she previously held she has spent more money on PR "to present her in the right light" than anything else.
an abomination.
Question is what does she want to achieve ? Introduce "more reliable" suppliers from abroad ?

so your statement
"The Airbus plane has not yet managed to get rid of a troublesome maintenance reputation. "
is wrong.
Murphy is an optimist
 
Nean1
Posts: 239
Joined: Mon May 30, 2016 11:08 pm

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:37 pm

Ozair wrote:
Nean1 wrote:

As for C-2, the price is expected to be much higher than the KC-390 (~ 136 vs 85 MM USD), as well as the operating cost. Its manufacturer has little to show in terms of customer technical support.

That price diffence makes sense though given the C-2 has a longer range and a greater payload capacity (40% greater by weight) all in an airframe that has larger internal cargo dimensions. For NZ which has Antacticia considerations they are important requirements for a new transport aircraft.


Ozair,

I think you should be less enthusiastic about C-2:
- This airplane in its original design was not intended to be exported and therefore did not take into account the needs of other countries;
- The use of Japanese avionics has been a great experience to absorb technology, but does not guarantee the availability levels of traditional suppliers;
- There are dozens of countries operating medium and large transport aircraft and few alternatives. No single aircraft caters adequately to all needs, there will always be some accommodation.
- The operation in Antarctica is an original requirement of the KC-390 not only for Brazil but also for countries like Argentina and Chile, potential customers.
 
Nean1
Posts: 239
Joined: Mon May 30, 2016 11:08 pm

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:44 pm

Noray wrote:
Nean1 wrote:
this in a high-level technical air force

It's actually a high-level bureaucracy air force plagued by a series of "reforms" (downsizings). The RAF seems to have a better experience with the A400M.

Nean1 wrote:

"a deployability rate of 38%, or just three of the service's 15-aircraft total......."

I don't know why they spread such nonsense about their own A400M fleet and make it look even worse than it is. "Three of the service's 15-aircraft total" would be 20%. But according to the original report, "three" actually is the average deployability for 2017. However, 15 is not an average, but the total they had received by the end of 2017. Eight of these were only delivered during the course of 2017, see A400M production list. So the average for 2017 is approximately 10 aircraft. It's more reasonable to say "or just three of the service's 10-aircraft average".

The report also states that eight aircraft were available on average (that's where the "38%" comes from), so an average of two were in retrofit or long-term maintenance.

While 38% doesn't look good, we're still at the beginning of the bathtub curve. New customers will receive aircraft that don't suffer from most of the defects that have caused the low deployability rate so far.


Noray,

You may be satisfied with the 38% operational availability even after almost 5 years of the A400 getting into service.

I am sure that Embraer engineers will be very disappointed if after the first year of service the KC-390 does not exceed 95% availability mark.
 
Nean1
Posts: 239
Joined: Mon May 30, 2016 11:08 pm

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Wed Mar 07, 2018 1:55 pm

WIederling wrote:
Nean1 wrote:
The Airbus plane has not yet managed to get rid of a troublesome maintenance reputation. In the link below there is information about availability even worse than the worst suspicions, this in a high-level technical air force:

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... va-446491/

"......These include the air force's Airbus Defence & Space A400Ms, which boasted a deployability rate of 38%, or just three of the service's 15-aircraft total......."


The Bundeswehr currently seems to have nothing in their arsenal that they don't have issues with.

Cause is rather easy:

de Mezier ordered ( when on the job some years ago ) that spares may only be procured when they are
needed. ( making budget cuts possible ). That seems to include stuff for regular maintainance too.
( no sub is working, few helos are working ( independent of manufacturer. .. )
The only type reasonably available is the Airbus helo based on a civil version.
Those parts needed seem to be available on shorter notice from the civil market.

Ulla von der Lügen has not changed this. But is adamant that fault is with the manufacturers.
In the position she previously held she has spent more money on PR "to present her in the right light" than anything else.
an abomination.
Question is what does she want to achieve ? Introduce "more reliable" suppliers from abroad ?

so your statement
"The Airbus plane has not yet managed to get rid of a troublesome maintenance reputation. "
is wrong.


WIederling,

Maybe I'm wrong, maybe all the blame should fall on the German air force. But before accepting this, I would like to have access to unbiased data on the actual availability of these aircraft as well as maintenance cost data.

There is a lot that is unique in the A400, an aircraft that is very focused on supporting combat operations. I see that New Zealand mainly needs bulky cargo carrying capacity, having little concern for tactical capability in wartime conditions.
 
WIederling
Posts: 5899
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Wed Mar 07, 2018 2:06 pm

Nean1 wrote:
You may be satisfied with the 38% operational availability even after almost 5 years of the A400 getting into service.


Any numbers available for the other A400M users? ( France, UK, Turkey?)
Murphy is an optimist
 
WIederling
Posts: 5899
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Wed Mar 07, 2018 2:14 pm

Nean1 wrote:
Maybe I'm wrong, maybe all the blame should fall on the German air force. But before accepting this, I would like to have access to unbiased data on the actual availability of these aircraft as well as maintenance cost data.
There is a lot that is unique in the A400, an aircraft that is very focused on supporting combat operations. I see that New Zealand mainly needs bulky cargo carrying capacity, having little concern for tactical capability in wartime conditions.


look at: https://www.google.de/search?q=france+A400M+useage

Rather strange: one article says 50% available
the Mulholland article states only 2 of >10 available.
I find this disturbing ( on the media side.).

RAF reads positive:
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/raf-now ... roduction/
Murphy is an optimist
 
Noray
Posts: 26
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 4:28 am

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Wed Mar 07, 2018 3:30 pm

Nean1 wrote:
Noray wrote:
While 38% doesn't look good,.

You may be satisfied with the 38% operational availability .

Ha.

Nean1 wrote:
I am sure that Embraer engineers will be very disappointed if after the first year of service the KC-390 does not exceed 95% availability mark.


Ha Ha. Please don't stray into the field of blunt propaganda. No aircraft would ever reach 95% availability by the same standards that were used to calculate the above Luftwaffe numbers.

Of course Embraer avoided lots of trouble when they selected a proven engine. But still it's a new aircraft, and as a military system it's not proven. The military parts offer lots of room for trouble that Embraer engineers don't even dream of and Airbus engineers had to cope with already.
 
WIederling
Posts: 5899
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Wed Mar 07, 2018 5:38 pm

Availability Improvements in New Transport Aircraft – The Case of the A400M:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1027711&p=20230097#p20230097
Murphy is an optimist
 
Ozair
Posts: 2362
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:17 pm

Nean1 wrote:
Ozair,
I think you should be less enthusiastic about C-2:

I’m not overly for or against the jet, I just see it having a role and place in future military transport acquisition.

Nean1 wrote:
- This airplane in its original design was not intended to be exported and therefore did not take into account the needs of other countries;

Not correct. Kawasaki was investigating the use of the C-2 on the civilian market as far back as 2007. Hence consideration for the export of the aircraft in some form has always been a factor.

Nean1 wrote:
- The use of Japanese avionics has been a great experience to absorb technology, but does not guarantee the availability levels of traditional suppliers;

I’m not sure what you mean by this. Are you saying that nations won’t buy Japanese technology? The primary customer for the jet will be ordering it is larger numbers than the primary customer of the KC-390. How does that not guarantee the availability of a traditional supplier?

Nean1 wrote:
- There are dozens of countries operating medium and large transport aircraft and few alternatives. No single aircraft caters adequately to all needs, there will always be some accommodation.

Correct, which is why both the C-2 and KC-390 are trying hard to sell to the market. Given they have reasonably difference payloads there won’t be a lot of cross over between customers. NZ is an example of a nation that has a reasonably unique set of requirements, and low budget, that allow both aircraft to compete.

Nean1 wrote:
- The operation in Antarctica is an original requirement of the KC-390 not only for Brazil but also for countries like Argentina and Chile, potential customers.

While that may be the intent, for the NZ Antarctic use case the range of the C-2 significantly trumps the KC-390 across all payloads. NZ has a stated problem with having a point of no return and the KC-390 will almost certainly has a greater issue with that than the C-2, given the KC-390s much shorter range.
 
User avatar
YuriMG2
Posts: 110
Joined: Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:16 pm

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Wed Mar 07, 2018 10:21 pm

Embraer returns damaged KC-390 to flight-test programme

One of Embraer’s KC-390 prototypes returned to flight over Brazil on 2 March, after being grounded for several months due to unexpected altitude loss during a stall test flight conducted last October, several flight tracking websites report.

Embraer confirms that the tactical transport involved in last year's mishap has resumed testing. The company’s first production aircraft is expected to enter service with the Brazilian air force’s 11th Wing in Rio de Janeiro later this year: a schedule that Embraer says will not be delayed by the prototype’s stall test incident and subsequent months of unavailability.

Full article
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ra-446533/
 
Nean1
Posts: 239
Joined: Mon May 30, 2016 11:08 pm

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:37 am

WIederling wrote:
Availability Improvements in New Transport Aircraft – The Case of the A400M:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1027711&p=20230097#p20230097


WIederling,

The A400 aircraft in its project prioritized a high operational performance (range, load capacity, operation in semi-prepared tracks) and high European content. It was successful in these two aspects.

As for the cost and availability available, the A400 will certainly be at a disadvantage compared to the C-130J and the KC-390. The latter extensively employs equipment and devices widely tested and produced on a larger scale. From the outset, the KC-390 looks for an operational availability factor similar to that achieved by civil aircraft.

The current discussion turns to the needs of New Zealand, which is not in Europe, is not part of NATO and has no intention of waging long-distance wars.
 
Nean1
Posts: 239
Joined: Mon May 30, 2016 11:08 pm

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:49 am

Noray wrote:
Nean1 wrote:
Noray wrote:
While 38% doesn't look good,.

You may be satisfied with the 38% operational availability .

Ha.

Nean1 wrote:
I am sure that Embraer engineers will be very disappointed if after the first year of service the KC-390 does not exceed 95% availability mark.


Ha Ha. Please don't stray into the field of blunt propaganda. No aircraft would ever reach 95% availability by the same standards that were used to calculate the above Luftwaffe numbers.

Of course Embraer avoided lots of trouble when they selected a proven engine. But still it's a new aircraft, and as a military system it's not proven. The military parts offer lots of room for trouble that Embraer engineers don't even dream of and Airbus engineers had to cope with already.


Noray,

Developing an aircraft with low operating costs, long maintenance cycles and ease of repair is as legitimate a marketing tool as performing feats such as refueling helicopters or moving heavy equipment. Embraer together with the Brazilian Air Force studied in detail the aircraft offers and the military priority requirements before developing the KC-390. Maybe it lacks some fancy features but the KC-390, as its sibling 190E2, will surpass the expectations.
 
Nean1
Posts: 239
Joined: Mon May 30, 2016 11:08 pm

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:08 am

Ozair wrote:
Nean1 wrote:
Ozair,
I think you should be less enthusiastic about C-2:

I’m not overly for or against the jet, I just see it having a role and place in future military transport acquisition.

Nean1 wrote:
- This airplane in its original design was not intended to be exported and therefore did not take into account the needs of other countries;

Not correct. Kawasaki was investigating the use of the C-2 on the civilian market as far back as 2007. Hence consideration for the export of the aircraft in some form has always been a factor.

Nean1 wrote:
- The use of Japanese avionics has been a great experience to absorb technology, but does not guarantee the availability levels of traditional suppliers;

I’m not sure what you mean by this. Are you saying that nations won’t buy Japanese technology? The primary customer for the jet will be ordering it is larger numbers than the primary customer of the KC-390. How does that not guarantee the availability of a traditional supplier?

Nean1 wrote:
- There are dozens of countries operating medium and large transport aircraft and few alternatives. No single aircraft caters adequately to all needs, there will always be some accommodation.

Correct, which is why both the C-2 and KC-390 are trying hard to sell to the market. Given they have reasonably difference payloads there won’t be a lot of cross over between customers. NZ is an example of a nation that has a reasonably unique set of requirements, and low budget, that allow both aircraft to compete.

Nean1 wrote:
- The operation in Antarctica is an original requirement of the KC-390 not only for Brazil but also for countries like Argentina and Chile, potential customers.

While that may be the intent, for the NZ Antarctic use case the range of the C-2 significantly trumps the KC-390 across all payloads. NZ has a stated problem with having a point of no return and the KC-390 will almost certainly has a greater issue with that than the C-2, given the KC-390s much shorter range.


Ozair,

1) Good luck, you will need to find evidence that the C-2 project had in its design major concerns in generating a product attractive to overseas customers.
Tip: The meaning of the word "investigating"

2) The aviation segment is conservative and prefers to buy a product from one traditional supplier rather than another that sells only to the Japanese government. Does that sound logical? There are Japanese companies and products of the highest quality but this occurs in markets facing international competition. The defense segment, like some others in Japan, is isolated from the competition. The typical result is high costs and below-average performance.

3) With a pair of KC-390, there are the possibility of fuel the other, greatly increasing the radius of the action. Even because this requirement is just one in so many others.
 
Ozair
Posts: 2362
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Thu Mar 08, 2018 4:20 am

Nean1 wrote:
Ozair,

1) Good luck, you will need to find evidence that the C-2 project had in its design major concerns in generating a product attractive to overseas customers.
Tip: The meaning of the word "investigating"

You mean like a flight global news article talking to the manufacturer about the commercial derivative?
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... ft-215332/

Image

I’m not saying they will be successful, commercial variants of military airlifters have an overall poor record in the market, but that it was considered from the start is a fact.
Nean1 wrote:
2) The aviation segment is conservative and prefers to buy a product from one traditional supplier rather than another that sells only to the Japanese government. Does that sound logical?

How is that any different to the KC-390 which only has the developing nation as the sole customer?

Nean1 wrote:
There are Japanese companies and products of the highest quality but this occurs in markets facing international competition. The defense segment, like some others in Japan, is isolated from the competition. The typical result is high costs and below-average performance.

So far the cost to develop and field the jet appears to be in line with projections. The schedule slipped a number of years but the acquisition price has stayed comfortably within expectations from 2007 till today.

Nean1 wrote:
3) With a pair of KC-390, there are the possibility of fuel the other, greatly increasing the radius of the action. Even because this requirement is just one in so many others.

Proposing A2A refuelling on a trip down to Antarctica is fraught with risk and the KC-390 has a range of 1500nm with a 20t load. The C-2 has three times that range with an equivalent payload…
 
WIederling
Posts: 5899
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Thu Mar 08, 2018 12:15 pm

Nean1 wrote:
The current discussion turns to the needs of New Zealand, which is not in Europe, is not part of NATO and has no intention of waging long-distance wars.


I have issues following your reasoning beyond that you seem to indicate that things in NZ are upside down.

Interesting from my view was that maintainance downtime for the A400M was planned to be about half of C-17 or C-130.
Then we could discuss if this was transferred into reality. Next if divergence is manufacturer error or user error.
Murphy is an optimist
 
Nean1
Posts: 239
Joined: Mon May 30, 2016 11:08 pm

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Thu Mar 08, 2018 4:08 pm

Noray wrote:
Nean1 wrote:
Noray wrote:
While 38% doesn't look good,.

You may be satisfied with the 38% operational availability .

Ha.

Nean1 wrote:
I am sure that Embraer engineers will be very disappointed if after the first year of service the KC-390 does not exceed 95% availability mark.


Ha Ha. Please don't stray into the field of blunt propaganda. No aircraft would ever reach 95% availability by the same standards that were used to calculate the above Luftwaffe numbers.

Of course Embraer avoided lots of trouble when they selected a proven engine. But still it's a new aircraft, and as a military system it's not proven. The military parts offer lots of room for trouble that Embraer engineers don't even dream of and Airbus engineers had to cope with already.


Noray,

Since the 1970s Embraer has actively participated in many others military projects like trainers (Xavante / Tucano / Super Tucano), fighters (AMX / Grippen), specialized intel (Bandeirulha / E-99) and upgrades (F-5 / A4 Skyhawk). There is no knowledge gap as you imagine.

An issue for the New Zealand acquisition process (FAMC) concerns the actual availability of the heavier aircraft like the A400 ou C-2. Considering that the value to acquire 5 C-130/KC-390 aircraft amounts to about 3 A400/C-2 units means that under usual conditions would be available to operate around 4 C-130 / KC-390 (~80%) and probably only 1 or 2 A400 or C-2 (~50%).
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
Posts: 535
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:20 am

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Thu Mar 08, 2018 5:28 pm

For NZ it's entirely possible the government might stump up for an extra larger aircraft or two if the capability is worth it. It is also something that would likely gain support from the NZ Greens as the primary use for transport aircraft in NZ is natural disaster response and search and rescue. But we won't know actual budget until we get an RFP and start hearing contract rumors.
 
User avatar
EMBSPBR
Posts: 284
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2017 9:03 pm

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Sun Apr 01, 2018 5:24 pm

KC-390 PT-ZNF prototype number 1 in SCL for Fidae Show:

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airc ... f#10e4058b

More about FIDAE 2018:
https://www.fidae.cl/

Image
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
Posts: 535
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:20 am

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Sun Apr 01, 2018 7:41 pm

Hmmmm, I wonder if they'll send it by RIAT this year. Would be pretty neat to see one up close.
 
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EMBSPBR
Posts: 284
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2017 9:03 pm

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Tue Apr 03, 2018 3:35 pm

Landing in Pudahael (SCL):

Image

And ready for the show:

Image
 
ZaphodHarkonnen
Posts: 535
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:20 am

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Tue Apr 03, 2018 4:32 pm

Those cockpit windows are about the same size as the R1 door. O_O Damn they're big. Must be an amazing view out.
 
User avatar
EMBSPBR
Posts: 284
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2017 9:03 pm

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Tue Apr 03, 2018 10:17 pm

ZaphodHarkonnen wrote:
Those cockpit windows are about the same size as the R1 door. O_O Damn they're big. Must be an amazing view out.


Image
 
User avatar
EMBSPBR
Posts: 284
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2017 9:03 pm

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Thu Apr 05, 2018 12:11 am

Fidae 2018:

Brazilians A-29 from Esquadrilha da Fumaça (Smoke Squadron) and KC-390:

Image

Image
 
User avatar
EMBSPBR
Posts: 284
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2017 9:03 pm

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Thu Apr 05, 2018 12:15 am

And a great movi with both prototypes in flight:

https://youtu.be/wwlrj07GFuA
 
INFINITI329
Posts: 2135
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 12:53 am

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Fri Apr 06, 2018 10:54 am

I wouldn't surprise me one bit if Embraer is involved with the eventual C-17 replacement program.. whenever that happens probably a decade away
 
User avatar
EMBSPBR
Posts: 284
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2017 9:03 pm

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Sun Apr 08, 2018 3:38 am

Great video of brazilians A-29 from Esquadrilha da Fumaça (Smoke Squadron) and KC-390 at FIDAE 2018
(close to the movie end note the use of of the motor´s reverses in a "walk back" movement):


https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_cont ... t6e7Ze0ai8
 
Nean1
Posts: 239
Joined: Mon May 30, 2016 11:08 pm

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Tue Apr 10, 2018 11:37 pm

 
ZaphodHarkonnen
Posts: 535
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2015 10:20 am

Re: Embraer KC-390 prospects

Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:24 pm

In case anyone else is going to RIAT this year. The KC-390 will be in the static display. https://www.airtattoo.com/airshow/aircr ... aer-kc-390

Shame it won't be flying.

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