VSMUT
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Netherlands to cancel 3 F-35s?

Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:07 pm

It looks like the Netherlands is the latest country to find itself in a crunch with the constantly increasing price tag of the F-35. A decision is to be made in 2019:

https://nltimes.nl/2017/11/30/dutch-gov ... ghter-jets
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Netherlands to cancel 3 F-35s?

Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:20 pm

suppose to be because of the exchange rate with the Dollar, even though much of the Euro F-35's are made in the Euro zone.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Ozair
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Re: Netherlands to cancel 3 F-35s?

Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:42 pm

VSMUT wrote:
It looks like the Netherlands is the latest country to find itself in a crunch with the constantly increasing price tag of the F-35. A decision is to be made in 2019:

https://nltimes.nl/2017/11/30/dutch-gov ... ghter-jets

VSMUT did you read the article you quoted? It clearly says the reason for any potential inability to afford the F-35 is because of currency fluctuations.

Due to the high dollar rate, the Ministry of Defense may not have enough money to buy the last three of the 37 Joint Strike Fighter jets the government plans to purchase, State Secretary Barbara Visser of Defense wrote in a letter to the Tweede Kamer, the lower house of Dutch parliament


As for the price increases to the F-35, the facts present a different story.

Image
 
VSMUT
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Re: Netherlands to cancel 3 F-35s?

Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:44 pm

Ozair wrote:
VSMUT did you read the article you quoted? It clearly says the reason for any potential inability to afford the F-35 is because of currency fluctuations.


An increase in the price is an increase in the price, regardless of the reason.
 
Ozair
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Re: Netherlands to cancel 3 F-35s?

Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:51 pm

Dutchy wrote:
suppose to be because of the exchange rate with the Dollar, even though much of the Euro F-35's are made in the Euro zone.

The price any nation pays would still be in US dollars despite the work done in Italy, the UK and other locations. This is swings and roundabouts though, the currency will go up and down as it has demonstarted over the last ten years.

Image
 
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Slug71
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Re: Netherlands to cancel 3 F-35s?

Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:32 pm

Ozair wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
It looks like the Netherlands is the latest country to find itself in a crunch with the constantly increasing price tag of the F-35. A decision is to be made in 2019:

https://nltimes.nl/2017/11/30/dutch-gov ... ghter-jets

VSMUT did you read the article you quoted? It clearly says the reason for any potential inability to afford the F-35 is because of currency fluctuations.

Due to the high dollar rate, the Ministry of Defense may not have enough money to buy the last three of the 37 Joint Strike Fighter jets the government plans to purchase, State Secretary Barbara Visser of Defense wrote in a letter to the Tweede Kamer, the lower house of Dutch parliament


As for the price increases to the F-35, the facts present a different story.

Image


Isn't that the cost without engines or support costs though?
At least that's what i remember hearing.
 
Ozair
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Re: Netherlands to cancel 3 F-35s?

Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:48 pm

Slug71 wrote:
Isn't that the cost without engines or support costs though?
At least that's what i remember hearing.

The slide clearly says includes engine and it is a fly away cost.
 
WIederling
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Re: Netherlands to cancel 3 F-35s?

Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:57 pm

Ozair wrote:
As for the price increases to the F-35, the facts present a different story.
https://www.ainonline.com/sites/default ... ts-web.jpg



prototypes to serial only 60% ? ROFLMAO

787 prototypes were somewhere from $.6b .. $1b. serial frames would cost $360m each. (your 60% :: sold for $83m :-)
Murphy is an optimist
 
Ozair
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Re: Netherlands to cancel 3 F-35s?

Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:09 am

WIederling wrote:

prototypes to serial only 60% ? ROFLMAO

787 prototypes were somewhere from $.6b .. $1b. serial frames would cost $360m each. (your 60% :: sold for $83m :-)

Two issues with your comment, first the above chart is from LRIP 1 to LRIP 10 so when the F-35 does hit FRP the percentage will be obviously higher.

Second, I fail to see what relevance there is in comparing the development of a 5th gen fighter to a commercial transport aircraft?
 
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kanban
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Re: Netherlands to cancel 3 F-35s?

Sat Dec 09, 2017 4:52 pm

They could be looking at total program costs to field the plane instead of merely aircraft/engine procurement costs... next year we will know for sure until then it's all guessing
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Netherlands to cancel 3 F-35s?

Sat Dec 09, 2017 6:04 pm

kanban wrote:
They could be looking at total program costs to field the plane instead of merely aircraft/engine procurement costs... next year we will know for sure until then it's all guessing


I don't understand what you are saying and what good it will do, could you elaborate on this a bit more?
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
petertenthije
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Re: Netherlands to cancel 3 F-35s?

Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:52 am

Dutchy wrote:
kanban wrote:
They could be looking at total program costs to field the plane instead of merely aircraft/engine procurement costs... next year we will know for sure until then it's all guessing


I don't understand what you are saying and what good it will do, could you elaborate on this a bit more?
The program costs are the expected costs that are made during the entire time the JSF is used. So buying the aircraft and engines, as well as the costs for kerosene, maintenance, staffing, upgrades, support equipment etc that are needed for the next 30 or 40odd year. Those figures would of course be significantly more expensive then only looking at the money needed just to buy the aircraft and engines.

Of course some of these costs will be made regardless. You need spare parts and staff to operate your jet, whether it is a JSF, Typhoon, Rafale, Grippen or F-16. But of course these are not all the same, for instance: the Rafale and Typhoon likely need more fuel since they have two engines, but the spare parts for a JSF might be more expensive then the parts for a Rafale. I do not think information is available to the public.
Attamottamotta!
 
virage
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Re: Netherlands to cancel 3 F-35s?

Mon Dec 18, 2017 6:03 pm

The Dutch would be wise canceling the F-35 in favor of the latest Gripen variant.
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Netherlands to cancel 3 F-35s?

Mon Dec 18, 2017 7:01 pm

virage wrote:
The Dutch would be wise canceling the F-35 in favor of the latest Gripen variant.


That boat has sailed a long time ago.
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Ozair
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Re: Netherlands to cancel 3 F-35s?

Mon Dec 18, 2017 8:11 pm

virage wrote:
The Dutch would be wise canceling the F-35 in favor of the latest Gripen variant.

In what way would a Gripen E be better suited to the Dutch over the F-35?
 
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Dutchy
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Re: Netherlands to cancel 3 F-35s?

Mon Dec 18, 2017 8:25 pm

Ozair wrote:
virage wrote:
The Dutch would be wise canceling the F-35 in favor of the latest Gripen variant.

In what way would a Gripen E be better suited to the Dutch over the F-35?


price ;)
Many happy landings, greetings from The Netherlands!
 
Ozair
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Re: Netherlands to cancel 3 F-35s?

Mon Dec 18, 2017 8:38 pm

Dutchy wrote:
Ozair wrote:
virage wrote:
The Dutch would be wise canceling the F-35 in favor of the latest Gripen variant.

In what way would a Gripen E be better suited to the Dutch over the F-35?


price ;)

Which price? It certainly won't be acquisition, the price of the Gripen E sold to Brazil was significantly more than that being paid by F-35 nations and no one else has bought the jet other than Sweden. As for operating costs, no one knows what the Gripen E will cost. It is bigger, heavier and more complex than the Gripen A/C. It may cost less to operate than an F-35 but it is also significantly less likely to survive in a high threat environment as well as likely require additional upgrades over its operating life to maintain some capability against high end threats.

The question then is, do you buy something cheaper to operate but unlikely to survive, in the hope you will never have to use it, or buy something that may be more expensive to operate but with a far higher chance of survival?
 
Ozair
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Re: Netherlands to cancel 3 F-35s?

Sun Oct 21, 2018 5:28 am

VSMUT wrote:
It looks like the Netherlands is the latest country to find itself in a crunch with the constantly increasing price tag of the F-35. A decision is to be made in 2019:

https://nltimes.nl/2017/11/30/dutch-gov ... ghter-jets

In what should be no surprise the Dutch Ministry of Defence have announced they will be buying the last three F-35s to the initial quantity of 37.

The Netherlands Buys Remaining Three F-35s

The Netherlands buys the remaining 3 F-35 fighter aircraft. With this, the Netherlands confirms the purchase of at least 37 aircraft. That is what Secretary of State Barbara Visser announced today in a letter to the House of Representatives.

The full operational deployment of the Dutch F-35 fleet is scheduled for 2024. In order to guarantee this, the order must be confirmed at the latest this month.

Delays in the so-called full operational capability have operational and financial consequences. The Netherlands will have to fly longer with the F-16

Overview of orders and deliveries since 2013

** Ordered and delivered: 2 test aircraft delivered in 2013 (Lot 3 and 4)

** Ordered:
-- 8 aircraft to be delivered in 2019 (Lot 11) *
-- 24 aircraft to be delivered in 2020-2022 (Lots 12-14) *

** To be ordered October 2018:
-- 3 aircraft to be delivered in 2023 (lot 15) *

* the different lot numbers represent the successive production series.

Due to the lower unit price for Lot 11, the new plan exchange rates and the risk reserve of € 120.8 million, the purchase of the F-35s is now financially feasible.

Lower prices

As is well known, the F-35 Joint Program Office aims for lower prices. This happens in 3 ways. In the first place, costs decrease due to higher numbers and the increased production experience. Secondly, production costs decrease thanks to investments. Thirdly, a multi-year purchase has a positive influence on the unit price.

In the coming years, it will be clear against which dollar exchange rate the commitments still to be entered into will be concluded.

Financial coincidences or setbacks in the project (including currency fluctuations) are absorbed through the risk reserve, the foreign exchange reserve and the investment program of the Defense organization.

http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articl ... f_35s.html

A lower Lot 11 price for the eight aircraft acquired in that LRIP buy and a new currency rate are the primary reasons for the ability to buy the final three but that lower Lot 11 price obviously translates to lower subsequent Lot pricing as well. Interestingly enough the Dutch will acquire almost their entire fleet of F-35s before the jet enters full rate production (with Lot 15 currently expected to be the first FRP lot).

With the jet getting cheaper and more capable through Blk 4 it may also open the door for additional aircraft to be acquired in a similar method to Dutch orders for the F-16.
 
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cpd
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Re: Netherlands to cancel 3 F-35s?

Sun Oct 21, 2018 8:18 am

Dutchy wrote:
Ozair wrote:
virage wrote:
The Dutch would be wise canceling the F-35 in favor of the latest Gripen variant.

In what way would a Gripen E be better suited to the Dutch over the F-35?


price ;)


The F35 is at another level compared to the latest Gripen. I was suspicious of the F35 for a while, but I'm not any more.
 
bigjku
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Re: Netherlands to cancel 3 F-35s?

Sun Oct 21, 2018 11:03 am

cpd wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
Ozair wrote:
In what way would a Gripen E be better suited to the Dutch over the F-35?


price ;)


The F35 is at another level compared to the latest Gripen. I was suspicious of the F35 for a while, but I'm not any more.


The Gripen or Eurofighter or F-16 work out if you reduce the mission requirement to basically being able to say that yes you have a fighter force and maybe some defensive counter air. They are all fine for doing work unopposed in Afghanistan as well.

The price equation changes quickly if you factor in everything you need to successfully strike against an opponent with real capabilities. You can do that with a Gripen or Eurofighter. You just need massive stand off jamming support, heaps of ARM’s and decoys and lots of high end standoff weapons.

And none of these lifetime cost equations ever seem to account for the cost of suffering much higher losses in a combat situation either which seems somewhat relevant.

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