jalarner
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Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:53 pm

I figure this discussion can get its own thread now that it is official and not just about cancelling the F-18 E/F from Boeing.

Canadian Forces Info (basic)
http://www.forces.gc.ca/en/business-def ... ms-10.page

Public Works (Purchasing) Release Info
https://buyandsell.gc.ca/procurement-da ... -002-26574

Toronto Star (news)
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/201 ... -jets.html

I'm sure there are and will be more detailed news and industry articles about the whole process, so lets discuss it here!

Jamie
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Andre3K
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:16 am

Considering their greedy asses are building F-35 parts they better be buying them.
 
Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:19 am

Andre3K wrote:
Considering their greedy asses are building F-35 parts they better be buying them.

Well if they don't acquire F-35 then they will lose the future F-35 industrial work. When the contracts come up for re-bid Canada would be excluded from bidding on the work.
 
Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:46 pm

Some recent news articles on the Canadian fighter acquisition process.

The Trudeau government has finally and officially announced its "interim" solution to replace the air force's CF-18 fighter jets. It will go to Happy Harry's Used Fighter Jets Lot in Australia to buy some more aging F-18s. Liberal penury — as far as defence is concerned — strikes again.
As with much of this Liberal government, the decision is so anticlimactic, so pathetically inadequate that it has produced not a military bang but a bureaucratic whimper.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/defence- ... -1.4446941

Everything about this whole sorry mess reeks of politics, deceit and cowboy economics — or in other words, procurement as usual. The “capability gap” suffers from a pronounced credibility gap: virtually no independent expert agrees it exists, defined as it is by a standard of military readiness — the ability to meet both our NORAD and our NATO commitments, simultaneously, in full — that has never been asked of us and is unlikely ever to be.

http://nationalpost.com/opinion/andrew- ... -economics
 
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zeke
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Sun Jan 14, 2018 4:06 pm

I see Canada has purchased 18 Australian F/A-18 A/B plus spares to be delivered next year.
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Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Sun Jan 14, 2018 10:18 pm

zeke wrote:
I see Canada has purchased 18 Australian F/A-18 A/B plus spares to be delivered next year.

Plenty of discussion on that in the previous topic. viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1363545&start=200
 
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kanban
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:23 am

Andre3K wrote:
Considering their greedy asses are building F-35 parts they better be buying them.

Look the manufacturing role was only bait fish to get them to consider the F-35. Canada has many other projects to replace the manufacturing with things they need.. Assuming they are being paid on parts delivery, there should be no problem other than Lockheed finding another supplier.
 
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BawliBooch
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:41 am

Canada needs to invest in its own Military aircraft industry.

The refurbished F18's coming from New Zealand (??) should hold the fort for now. Use the time to develop a competitive local design and take it to market.
L' Esprit de Mai 68
 
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moo
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:52 am

BawliBooch wrote:
The refurbished F18's coming from New Zealand (??)


Australia. As many people have already said.

NZ hasn't had an airforce in several years, and it has never operated the F-18 of any type - the last comparable fighter it operated was a Skyhawk.
 
johns624
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:56 am

Canada just keeps kicking the can down the road, both with the fighters and the navy frigates.
 
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cpd
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:06 am

BawliBooch wrote:
Canada needs to invest in its own Military aircraft industry.

The refurbished F18's coming from New Zealand (??) should hold the fort for now. Use the time to develop a competitive local design and take it to market.


Unless of course another government comes into power and decides that they should buy American again and scraps any potential locally designed aircraft.

You'd guess it would be a possibility, along with plenty of political point-scoring.

I also agree that Canada should invest in its own industry, so should Australia as well - we should be getting into that kind of industry.
 
Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:26 am

kanban wrote:
Look the manufacturing role was only bait fish to get them to consider the F-35.

Actually nothing to do with bait fish and everything to do with continuing the long run Canadian Industry has with manufacturing high quality parts for Aerospace.

As for their participation in the JSF program, Canada agreed to the requirements of the program, noting that the Government who agreed to participate was a Liberal one, the same party that is in power today…
As for Industrial work, Canada has now secured over US$1 billion dollars of work on the program from an approx $430 million program fees. That is with approximately 15% of the F-35 fleet manufactured. The Canadian Government has estimated that the total sum of contracts for the JSF program will probably exceed US$10 billion. Given the Canadian Government will likely not spend that much on the F-35 acquisition if selected in the future open competition the decision to join the program is a clear win for Canadian Industry.

kanban wrote:
Canada has many other projects to replace the manufacturing with things they need.. Assuming they are being paid on parts delivery, there should be no problem other than Lockheed finding another supplier.

There is no problem with LM finding other suppliers. The problem is the Liberal Government does not want to say no to the industrial benefits of the F-35 program. Hence they continue to pay the yearly sums required to maintain participation in the Industrial side. As already explained, this will dry up if Canada orders a different aircraft as the other partner nations have a vested interest in allowing their companies to win future F-35 work.

BawliBooch wrote:
Canada needs to invest in its own Military aircraft industry.

The refurbished F18's coming from New Zealand (??) should hold the fort for now. Use the time to develop a competitive local design and take it to market.

There is zero chance of Canada developing a local design. While they probably have the industrial expertise to do so, the development costs involved would be significant, the production cost enormous because the production number would be less than a hundred, and the commonality with allied partners likely reduced.

The decision to not produce a local airframe was already denied over 5 years ago,

The Harper government is publicly rejecting a pitch from a former senior soldier to adopt the legendary Avro Arrow as Canada's next war plane, saying that, emotional attachment notwithstanding, the design of the much-loved fighter would prove too expensive and time-consuming to upgrade.
The Prime Minister's Office was prompted to respond after retired major-general Lewis MacKenzie unveiled a proposal he'd been quietly shopping around Ottawa to revive the made-in-Canada Avro interceptor, a plane that was scrapped half a century ago despite capturing the imagination of the nation.
"While we appreciate the sentimental value of the Avro Arrow, which was cancelled 53 years ago, analysts looked at the proposal and determined that this is not a realistic option," Andrew MacDougall, director of communications for Prime Minister Stephen Harper, said Monday.
"The proposal to develop, test and manufacture what would effectively be a brand-new aircraft is risky and would take too long and cost too much to meet Canada's needs."
Separately, Julian Fantino, the former associate minister of defence, wrote Mr. MacKenzie a letter this summer shooting down the Avro on the grounds that required add-ons would jack up its price.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/po ... le4535481/

It makes far more economical sense for the Canadian Military to acquire an already in production jet that has interoperability with partners and can fulfil their mission requirements. If we look at the candidates for the competition, if it does start in 2019 with a decision by 2021, then the potential options are F-35, Rafale, Eurofighter, SH and Gripen.

Of those choices the F-35 is the standout on price, capability, interoperability, survivability and industrial participation.
 
CX747
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Jan 15, 2018 5:50 am

The Super Hornet buy as an interim replacement made the most sense. BBD issues aside, the country as a whole is now buying aged F/A-18A/Bs at the end of their life to replace F/A-18s at the.....end of their life. MAYBE less wear and tear (100,000 miles compared to 110,000 miles) but in the end the same vintage aircraft. Unfortunately, the government cut off its nose to spite its face.

The F-35 is the only full next generation game in town. IF you don't want that then.....buy Super Hornets, modernized F-15Es or the new F-16V. At least ONE of those solutions is not Boeing made and I thought that's where the issue was?!?! The F/A-18A purchase puts Canada at a distinct disadvantage. Old technology that is on the way OUT the door elsewhere. Embarrassing to say the least.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
Ozair
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:07 am

CX747 wrote:
The Super Hornet buy as an interim replacement made the most sense. BBD issues aside, the country as a whole is now buying aged F/A-18A/Bs at the end of their life to replace F/A-18s at the.....end of their life. MAYBE less wear and tear (100,000 miles compared to 110,000 miles) but in the end the same vintage aircraft. Unfortunately, the government cut off its nose to spite its face.

Actually I think the short term buy of classic Hornets is a much better idea. At approx US$400 million it is a bargain compared to the nearly US$6 billion Boeing was asking for the same number of SH. This way Canada takes a single fleet of classic Hornets forward and replaces the whole fleet with one single jet in the 2023-2027 timeframe.


CX747 wrote:
The F/A-18A purchase puts Canada at a distinct disadvantage. Old technology that is on the way OUT the door elsewhere. Embarrassing to say the least.

The plan is just to squeeze a few more years out of the classic hornets. Given the USMC will operate classic Hornets until 2030 there are enough other players flying classics beyond Canada to mean this plan is at least sensible and fiscally makes far more sense.
 
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keesje
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:26 pm

The Canadians will be sitting on a lot of frames, engines, spares, simulators. Review the total inventory and make a 10 year plan, including upgrades where they make sense / are required. Not a bad plan. Maybe discuss with the US Marine Corps who have a track record of getting the best out of aging designs.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
ExMilitaryEng
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:46 pm

keesje wrote:
Maybe discuss with the US Marine Corps who have a track record of getting the best out of aging designs.

It's already happening, and has been for many years. L3 MAS in Mirabel has extensive expertise/capabilities in legacy Hornets - ours having about the most flying hours. (Canada also owns its legacy Hornets software codes).

Lots of constructive information is shared between Hornets operators.
 
ExMilitaryEng
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Mon Jan 15, 2018 8:22 pm

Ozair wrote:
Actually I think the short term buy of classic Hornets is a much better idea. At approx US$400 million it is a bargain compared to the nearly US$6 billion Boeing was asking for the same number of SH. This way Canada takes a single fleet of classic Hornets forward and replaces the whole fleet with one single jet in the 2023-2027 timeframe.
The plan is just to squeeze a few more years out of the classic hornets. Given the USMC will operate classic Hornets until 2030 there are enough other players flying classics beyond Canada to mean this plan is at least sensible and fiscally makes far more sense.


Agree with above 100%

Furthermore, as we'll probably buy the F35, most bugs should have been fixed by then, combined with a lower unit cost. A real win - win here (plus a Boeing loss... :biggrin: ).
 
Oroka
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:13 am

ExMilitaryEng wrote:
Furthermore, as we'll probably buy the F35, most bugs should have been fixed by then, combined with a lower unit cost. A real win - win here (plus a Boeing loss... :biggrin: ).


Still a waste of money. Liberals say we cant afford the F-35 but we can afford to buy disposable F/A-18s? How many F-35 can we get for the $388M that will be spent on what is essentially an attempt to save face with an election promise? Hard to say, atleast 3, but the RCAF would get WAY more airframe hours from those 3 F-35 than 18 not quite worn out F/A-18.

As for bugs... remember when we bought Hornets that had aerodynamic problems that were causing excess stress on the vert stabs and they had to add LEX fences and reinforcements to the vert stab roots to keep the stabs from prematurely ripping off? Yeah, making fighter jets are hard and bugs are normal.

Image

Image
 
ExMilitaryEng
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Re: Canada - Future Fighter Capability Project

Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:34 pm

Oroka wrote:
Still a waste of money. Liberals say we cant afford the F-35 but we can afford to buy disposable F/A-18s? How many F-35 can we get for the $388M that will be spent on what is essentially an attempt to save face with an election promise? Hard to say, atleast 3, but the RCAF would get WAY more airframe hours from those 3 F-35 than 18 not quite worn out F/A-18.
Let's agree it's an immense saving compared to buying new "interim" Super Hornets + new "interim" crew/maintainer training + new additional "interim" logistical support...

I agree it's a waste of money compared to having taken a timely decision 5 -10 years ago (to procure a new fighter). But that's too late now.

$388M is providing some more years (what, 5 more?) of the current operational capacity. How does it compare to the total life cycle cost of the F35, on a yearly basis? Not sure it's such a waste.

Could we have stretched our CF18s (by flying strictly minimal NORAD/home defense duties and no NATO deployments) for a few more years, enough to allow an effective new fighter procurement? Not sure if that would be still possible now.

Oroka wrote:
As for bugs... remember when we bought Hornets that had aerodynamic problems that were causing excess stress on the vert stabs and they had to add LEX fences and reinforcements to the vert stab roots to keep the stabs from prematurely ripping off? Yeah, making fighter jets are hard and bugs are normal.
Wow, thanks for those fascinating images/valuable info.

That convinces me even more that there is nothing wrong with letting the F35 maturing / eliminate bugs a little longer... (Plus the unit cost savings along the production ramp up)

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