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SAS A340
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The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Sun Apr 21, 2019 5:29 pm

Feels a bit like it's getting serious for Turkey to make a decision on S400 or F-35? Turkey has made it clear that the F-35 can be replaced. What is your theory as to why Turkey is acting as they do? They are, after all, a NATO member..... So far! And it rhymes badly with buying Russian...... :bomb: :box: :alert:

https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... lan-flops/
It's not what u do,it's how u do it!
 
P1aneMad
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Sun Apr 21, 2019 5:49 pm

With what exactly can Turkey replace the F-35 as the are claiming?
 
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seahawk
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Sun Apr 21, 2019 6:25 pm

SU-57s.
 
P1aneMad
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Sun Apr 21, 2019 7:05 pm

Doubtfull that the Russians will sell this technology to Turkey.
 
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SAS A340
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Sun Apr 21, 2019 8:16 pm

Russia will never sell the SU-57 to a Nato member... only 4 or 4.5 generation fighters left, unless China... on the other hand, Turkey is about to develeop a 5 gen fighter of there own, right?
It's not what u do,it's how u do it!
 
hmmwv
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Mon Apr 22, 2019 6:39 pm

Turkey could replace India as a full on partner of the Su-57E project, afterall Russia let India access Su-57 technology even though they have very close ties with the US.
 
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bikerthai
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Mon Apr 22, 2019 6:49 pm

SAS A340 wrote:
What is your theory as to why Turkey is acting as they do?


My opinion only . . .

1) They saw how the US allied with the Kurds in Syria and see the US as no longer a reliable ally with respect to their internal affair.

2) Their aspiration of becoming the new center of gravity of Islamic centric culture with the destruction of Iraq, Syria and the Saudi and Iranians busy fighting each other thru proxy. They can not do this if they are perceived as being a puppet of the US.

Diverging from US influence may be the only way some part of the Turkish government believe they can achieve the above goals. Unfortunately, it may end up with civil war. How would NATO react if there was a civil war and the official Government leans toward Russia? That would be complicated wouldn't it?

bt
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Nomadd
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:19 pm

The whole thing kinda confuses me. I'd think the US would love to have a partner with an S-400 they could get intelligence from. Which is also why I can't understand Russia selling one to a western (sort of) ally.
 
bennett123
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Mon Apr 22, 2019 7:49 pm

Not clear why the US is taking this approach. Is it just to sell Patriot 3 or is there more to it.
 
DigitalSea
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:08 pm

Turkey is playing both sides. They also didn't appreciate the U.S. backing a coup in their country.
 
texl1649
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:27 pm

bikerthai wrote:
SAS A340 wrote:
What is your theory as to why Turkey is acting as they do?


My opinion only . . .

1) They saw how the US allied with the Kurds in Syria and see the US as no longer a reliable ally with respect to their internal affair.

2) Their aspiration of becoming the new center of gravity of Islamic centric culture with the destruction of Iraq, Syria and the Saudi and Iranians busy fighting each other thru proxy. They can not do this if they are perceived as being a puppet of the US.

bt


I see what you did there.
 
Ozair
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Mon Apr 22, 2019 10:35 pm

SAS A340 wrote:
Feels a bit like it's getting serious for Turkey to make a decision on S400 or F-35? Turkey has made it clear that the F-35 can be replaced. What is your theory as to why Turkey is acting as they do? They are, after all, a NATO member..... So far! And it rhymes badly with buying Russian...... :bomb: :box: :alert:

https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... lan-flops/

Given there have been multiple articles and commentary on this topic posted in the F-35 news thread I’m not sure why this warrants a separate thread, but anyway...

seahawk wrote:
SU-57s.

That would imply Russian will actually order enough of the SU-57 themselves to make the program viable and available for export, the prospect of which iss till doubtful. The SU-57 also completely does not suit Turkey.

SAS A340 wrote:
Russia will never sell the SU-57 to a Nato member... only 4 or 4.5 generation fighters left, unless China... on the other hand, Turkey is about to develop a 5 gen fighter of there own, right?

Turkey does have a strong desire to build a domestic aircraft and the SU-57 in no way provides that. It is way too big for what Turkey wants to do and the TF-X is at least 10 years away and likely more like 15, if it ever gets off the ground.

The impetuous for Turkey will come if Greece acquires the F-35 as has been recently mentioned. Don’t be surprised that Greece has suddenly come into contention for the aircraft, it is likely a move to push Turkey who above all else going on with Kurds etc cares about Greece more.

hmmwv wrote:
Turkey could replace India as a full on partner of the Su-57E project, afterall Russia let India access Su-57 technology even though they have very close ties with the US.

Except they didn’t get access to any technology. India didn’t pay enough and Russia never releaed enough for India to gain anything form that program. Again though, the SU-57 is way too big for Turkey’s needs. Look at their current fleet, it is comprised almost solely of small aircraft with the largest, the F-4 with only approximately 50 in service, replaced by the F-35 which was then to start replacing the early F-16s with TF-X replacing later F-16s.

Nomadd wrote:
The whole thing kinda confuses me. I'd think the US would love to have a partner with an S-400 they could get intelligence from. Which is also why I can't understand Russia selling one to a western (sort of) ally.

I don’t think that is much of an issue, they are pretty consistent of their position on the S-400. Russia did sell the S-300 (at least an export version of sorts) to Greece and South Korea so they aren’t opposed to selling to NATO or strong US allies, noting the timing of those sales was before relations frosted again.

Note that the US will almost certainly given India a waiver on the S-400 because of the hope for future relations, and a couple of big fighter sales competitoons running, but Turkey as a NATO member and JSF program partner is obviously different.

Choosing the S-400 over the F-35 is an overall bad deal for Turkey, they will lose massive industrial exports for a SAM system, that in export form, will probably never meet their needs.

bennett123 wrote:
Not clear why the US is taking this approach. Is it just to sell Patriot 3 or is there more to it.

The Turks have been offered Patriot multiple times but only want it with the transfer of the technology. The US won’t do that so hence why Turkey went looking first at the HQ-9 and then to the S-400. Again Turkey’s intent is to develop a long range SAM domestically so no surprise they want the tech transfer.
 
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seahawk
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:50 am

SAS A340 wrote:
Russia will never sell the SU-57 to a Nato member... only 4 or 4.5 generation fighters left, unless China... on the other hand, Turkey is about to develeop a 5 gen fighter of there own, right?

How long will Turkey remain a NATO member in that case?
 
FrancisBegbie
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Tue Apr 23, 2019 2:38 pm

seahawk wrote:
SAS A340 wrote:
Russia will never sell the SU-57 to a Nato member... only 4 or 4.5 generation fighters left, unless China... on the other hand, Turkey is about to develeop a 5 gen fighter of there own, right?

How long will Turkey remain a NATO member in that case?


As long as Turkey controls the Bosporus. Perfect place to hide Russian ICBM carrying subs if they ever would control the access gate. NATO will go very far to prevent this from happening.
 
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Amazonski
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Tue Apr 23, 2019 4:05 pm

SAS A340 wrote:
Russia will never sell the SU-57 to a Nato member...

They will. A few days ago they even set the parameters for export deals . The projects both for the airframe, and the new engine are in deep stall. And apart from the technical impediments, Russia is already spending one third of it's budget for military forces, Law enforcement agencies and the military-industrial complex. No money for a dead end project.

The problem is, that even Turkey pays for Su-57, they cannot pay for developing the entire set of weaponry, sensors and network, needed to create weapon platform, from this parade-queen.
 
Pavlakakos
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:52 pm

FrancisBegbie wrote:
As long as Turkey controls the Bosporus. Perfect place to hide Russian ICBM carrying subs if they ever would control the access gate. NATO will go very far to prevent this from happening.


The straits status is governed by the Treaty of Montreux and cannot be changed unilaterally. The only way for the treaty to be revised would be for Turkey to sign the UNCLOS (Law of the Sea treaty), but then, it would pave the way for Greece to extend its maritime waters to 12 miles, thus making the Aegean a Greek lake and that's the main reason thatTurkey never ratified it.

Besides, the straits issue is kind of overrated. In the unlikely case of Turkey leaving NATO and allowing ICBM subs in them, those subs still would have to travel 500 miles thru the Aegean with its numerous islands and NATO would certainly deploy an endless series of detection arrays, thus eliminating any surprises.

Not a realistic scenario really. Egypt tried to change the Suez status in 1956 and we all know what happened. Turkey is no fool to make the same mistakes.
 
Naincompetent
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:41 am

Nomadd wrote:
The whole thing kinda confuses me. I'd think the US would love to have a partner with an S-400 they could get intelligence from. Which is also why I can't understand Russia selling one to a western (sort of) ally.


Let's say that they have enough Intel from the Israelis.
They fly over Syria all the time and attack targets within 50 kilometers of an S400 system.

I'm sure they're more worried by the Russians learning to detect the F35.
 
ThePointblank
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Fri Apr 26, 2019 4:33 am

Ozair wrote:
I don’t think that is much of an issue, they are pretty consistent of their position on the S-400. Russia did sell the S-300 (at least an export version of sorts) to Greece and South Korea so they aren’t opposed to selling to NATO or strong US allies, noting the timing of those sales was before relations frosted again.

Note that the US will almost certainly given India a waiver on the S-400 because of the hope for future relations, and a couple of big fighter sales competitoons running, but Turkey as a NATO member and JSF program partner is obviously different.

I will note that Greece only got the S-300 system in a roundabout way; the Greeks only got the system as a result of the Cypriot S-300 crisis, where the Republic of Cyprus initially purchased the system to defend their air space against Turkey, with the predictable result of Turkey threatening war over the matter. It was only resolved when the government of Cyprus transferred the S-300 system to Greece in exchange for other defence systems, which installed the system on Crete, where they remain to this day.

And I don't recall South Korea ever purchasing the S-300 system; I'm aware that the Russians did assist the South Koreans in the development of their own indigenous medium range SAM system using S-300 technology, but that's about it; the only other air defence system the South Koreans have from the Russians is a couple hundred Igla MANPADS that were given as repayment for Soviet-era loans made by South Korea.
 
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Fri Apr 26, 2019 5:09 am

ThePointblank wrote:
Ozair wrote:
I don’t think that is much of an issue, they are pretty consistent of their position on the S-400. Russia did sell the S-300 (at least an export version of sorts) to Greece and South Korea so they aren’t opposed to selling to NATO or strong US allies, noting the timing of those sales was before relations frosted again.

Note that the US will almost certainly given India a waiver on the S-400 because of the hope for future relations, and a couple of big fighter sales competitoons running, but Turkey as a NATO member and JSF program partner is obviously different.

I will note that Greece only got the S-300 system in a roundabout way; the Greeks only got the system as a result of the Cypriot S-300 crisis, where the Republic of Cyprus initially purchased the system to defend their air space against Turkey, with the predictable result of Turkey threatening war over the matter. It was only resolved when the government of Cyprus transferred the S-300 system to Greece in exchange for other defence systems, which installed the system on Crete, where they remain to this day.

And I don't recall South Korea ever purchasing the S-300 system; I'm aware that the Russians did assist the South Koreans in the development of their own indigenous medium range SAM system using S-300 technology, but that's about it; the only other air defence system the South Koreans have from the Russians is a couple hundred Igla MANPADS that were given as repayment for Soviet-era loans made by South Korea.

Thanks, I knew about the Greek acquisition details but not sure how I got to South Korea using the S-300, perhaps just the co-development stuff mixed with other things.
 
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Tue Apr 30, 2019 1:04 am

Some commentary on how Kale Group may suffer if Turkey is excluded from the F-35.

Turkey's Kale eyes F-35 options during U.S. spat

Turkish aerospace manufacturer Kale Group said on Monday if disagreements between Ankara and Washington curb parts orders and exclude it from an F-35 project, then any lost sales would be offset by turning to civil aviation.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has not backed down from the planned purchase of a Russian S-400 missile defence system that the United States has said would compromise the security of stealth F-35 fighter jets, which Turkey also plans to buy.

NATO ally Turkey has said it will take delivery of the S-400s in July, even while sources told Reuters earlier this month that Washington had halted delivery of F-35-related equipment to the country, marking the first concrete U.S. step to block its delivery.

“There has been no impact on our business so far,” Kale vice president Osman Okyay told reporters on Monday. “These are large, complex parts and manufacturing continues uninterrupted. We have a five-year backlog of orders.”

Kale Group and its subsidiary manufacture the cockpit and front fuselage parts for the F-35. Kale Pratt & Whitney, a partnership with the Pratt & Whitney division of U.S.-based United Technologies, produces engine parts for the plane.

“Our utmost desire is that Turkey continues to be a part of this project. However we have a plan B if Turkey leaves the project,” Okyay said. “If this were to happen, we’ll aim to offset its impact (on the company) by producing more civil and commercial aviation parts.”

...

https://www.reuters.com/article/turkey- ... SL5N22B3KB

More at the link.

I’ve also read commentary from several Turkish websites such as here https://www.sozcu.com.tr/haberleri/istanbul/ that Erdogan has asked the US for a commission to investigate the impact of the S-400 on the F-35 and also that they are investigating whether Turkey could be granted a waiver for the S-400 similar to India. The interesting point was that even with the S-400 acquisition the Turks won’t be getting the technology transfer they have been seeking from any of the vendors.

Pretty doubtful either a commission or a waiver will happen but it shows the growing angst against Erdogran about the way the economy is being run and how these decisions are impacting work going forward.
 
sonicruiser
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Fri May 10, 2019 2:53 pm

So much for all the people saying Russia won't sell Turkey the Su-57. It's a win-win for both sides.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... collapses/

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/2 ... e-of-f-35s

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/russia ... ets-143123

https://ahvalnews.com/su-57/russia-offe ... s-analysis

I think NATO is starting to become more of an obstacle than a benefit for Turkey. US may not want Turkey to get the F35 but they may fear a NATO member buying Russian even more. If they get expelled from the F35 program, guess who's gonna be the first to buy the Su-57. The only way to prevent Turkey from buying Su-57's is to hand over the F35's and the US knows it. Time will tell what happens.
 
Spar
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Fri May 10, 2019 7:47 pm

Why would anybody in the west care if Turkey shoveled their money down the rat hole known as the SU-57? Or for that matter why would anybody in the west care if Turkey got deeply involved with Russia? That is a marriage that could never last so would not be a threat to anyone. Russia is Turkey's historic enemy and Turkey's only real threat.

The only threat Erdogan represents to the US or Europe stems from the possibility that he might move Turkey in an Islamist direction. He can't very well go Islamist and Russian at the same time.

So let him spend his country's money on the SU-57 if he wants. His successor will be back knocking on our door after he has things completely mucked up.
 
Reddevil556
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Fri May 10, 2019 10:47 pm

Spar wrote:
Why would anybody in the west care if Turkey shoveled their money down the rat hole known as the SU-57? Or for that matter why would anybody in the west care if Turkey got deeply involved with Russia? That is a marriage that could never last so would not be a threat to anyone. Russia is Turkey's historic enemy and Turkey's only real threat.

The only threat Erdogan represents to the US or Europe stems from the possibility that he might move Turkey in an Islamist direction. He can't very well go Islamist and Russian at the same time.

So let him spend his country's money on the SU-57 if he wants. His successor will be back knocking on our door after he has things completely mucked up.


If he allows a successor
Jumped out of: C130H, C130J, C17A, C212, CH47, and UH60. Bucket list: C160, A400, C2
 
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bikerthai
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Sat May 11, 2019 12:28 am

I had always thought that Turkey was a problematic NATO partner. Until recently it was ruled by a military junta. Then the democracy experiment brings a power hungry populist.

The F-35 can be withheld. How will they treat the 737 AEW&C if Turkey begin to act like Packistan? Will some non-descript insurgent group have to come in and destroy those frames like what happened to the P-3s, before the Russians have a chance to learn it's secrets?

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
Reddevil556
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Sat May 11, 2019 2:13 am

History is not favorable to Russian bedfellows. Turkey has always been a long shot to me. It made sense at a certain level but in the grand scheme not worth the squeeze. I envision things could have been a lot different in Iraq in the past 15 years if Turkey would have been more proactive. But I digress, the state of affairs is not surprising l.
Jumped out of: C130H, C130J, C17A, C212, CH47, and UH60. Bucket list: C160, A400, C2
 
DigitalSea
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Sat May 11, 2019 3:24 am

It's a love hate with Turkey but we still feel it's necessary to keep a nuclear weapons stockpile there.
 
tu204
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Sat May 11, 2019 5:06 am

Threatening Turkey to dance to your fiddle isn't the way to work with them especially now with the level of patriotism and nationalism that you see there.

Erdogan doesn't want to be seen as weak or a pushover, so I don't think it mattrrs on what the US threatens him with, he doesn't have much of a choice, he has to tell the US to bug off and will come out on top rating-wise internally.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
Spar
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Sat May 11, 2019 5:45 am

tu204 wrote:
Threatening Turkey to dance to your fiddle isn't the way to work with them especially now with the level of patriotism and nationalism that you see there.

Erdogan doesn't want to be seen as weak or a pushover, so I don't think it mattrrs on what the US threatens him with, he doesn't have much of a choice, he has to tell the US to bug off and will come out on top rating-wise internally.

What exactly is meant by "Threatening Turkey to dance to your fiddle"?
 
Kiwirob
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Sat May 11, 2019 6:56 am

Reddevil556 wrote:
Spar wrote:
Why would anybody in the west care if Turkey shoveled their money down the rat hole known as the SU-57? Or for that matter why would anybody in the west care if Turkey got deeply involved with Russia? That is a marriage that could never last so would not be a threat to anyone. Russia is Turkey's historic enemy and Turkey's only real threat.

The only threat Erdogan represents to the US or Europe stems from the possibility that he might move Turkey in an Islamist direction. He can't very well go Islamist and Russian at the same time.

So let him spend his country's money on the SU-57 if he wants. His successor will be back knocking on our door after he has things completely mucked up.


If he allows a successor


He’s not immortal.
 
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LAXintl
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Sat May 11, 2019 8:14 pm

bikerthai wrote:
Until recently it was ruled by a military junta. Then the democracy experiment brings a power hungry populist.


Recently? :confused: :confused:

Turkey has had continuous a civilian rule for nearly 40 years now.

Also democracy is hardly an experiment. Elections from national down to local levels is very well established with parties from every spectrum of politics participating in them (even Kurdish ones).

Just because you might not like the current President does not mean the system is a failure, no more than the U.S. system that can elect participants with from extreme ends of the political spectrum.
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
Ozair
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Sat May 11, 2019 11:29 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
So much for all the people saying Russia won't sell Turkey the Su-57. It's a win-win for both sides.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... collapses/

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/2 ... e-of-f-35s

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/russia ... ets-143123

https://ahvalnews.com/su-57/russia-offe ... s-analysis

I think NATO is starting to become more of an obstacle than a benefit for Turkey. US may not want Turkey to get the F35 but they may fear a NATO member buying Russian even more. If they get expelled from the F35 program, guess who's gonna be the first to buy the Su-57. The only way to prevent Turkey from buying Su-57's is to hand over the F35's and the US knows it. Time will tell what happens.

Just because Russia is offering doesn't mean Turkey will buy it. The key is technology transfer and Russia has already stated they aren't transferring technology with the S-400, why would they with the SU-57? A more likely scenario is that Russia and Turkey could co-develop a new medium weight stealth fighter, which Russia clearly lacks, and which is right in the size bracket for what Turkey wants. The SU-57 is simply too big and costly for Turkey to operate effectively.

As already stated Turkey has far more to lose in acquiring the S-400 and therefore being removed from the F-35 program. It is literally billions of dollars of high tech industrial work over the program's life and to a Turkish economy that is contracting today, and has a less rosy future than previously indicated, that is significant. Add that to the superior capability of the jet and the apparent inability of the S-400 system to prevent Israeli incursions into Syria it seems a poor move.

But poor moves seem to be the order of the day for the current Turkish ruling party...
 
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bikerthai
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Sun May 12, 2019 1:28 pm

LAXintl wrote:
Turkey has had continuous a civilian rule for nearly 40 years now.


My bad. There are various form of democracies. And when you get old, you lost track of time. I'd say there is still experimentation, as we saw recently with the "attempted coupe".

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
WIederling
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Sun May 12, 2019 3:49 pm

DigitalSea wrote:
Turkey is playing both sides. They also didn't appreciate the U.S. backing a coup in their country.


They also did not like getting commercially burned by Russia for shooting down one of their planes egged on by US representatives. That really hurt after Turkey had benefited from supplying EU embargoed goods to Russian.
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mercure1
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Sun May 12, 2019 6:09 pm

Its not a matter of Turkey playing both sides.

Fact is Turkey whether anyone likes it or not has troubled neighbors, yet needs to find a way to get along with them.

As a former Turkish foreign minister said few years back explained, Turkey tries to follow a "Policy of Zero Problems with our Neighbors" which means it must maintain a multidimensional foreign policy, and cannot and will not simply blindly follow one side or another.

Also historically no nation has been a truly reliable ally for Turkey - not the EU, not the U.S, not the Arabs and not the Russians, so it must often implementing her own individual foreign policy that protects its own interest as these so called "allies" have all turned their backs on Turkey at one time or another.
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janders
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Mon May 13, 2019 12:17 am

bikerthai wrote:

My bad. There are various form of democracies. And when you get old, you lost track of time. I'd say there is still experimentation, as we saw recently with the "attempted coupe".


Imo, the attempted coup in 2016 actually shows how strong democracy really is nowadays, in that people took to the streets, and every political party opposed the actions of the band of misguided soldiers.
Were democracy and peoples beliefs not so strong, they could very well have rolled over and as they did in last century. and let military sweep themselves into power.

mercure1 wrote:
Also historically no nation has been a truly reliable ally for Turkey - not the EU, not the U.S, not the Arabs and not the Russians, so it must often implementing her own individual foreign policy that protects its own interest as these so called "allies" have all turned their backs on Turkey at one time or another.


History has shown that nations and leaders that blindly follow the U.S and West will find themselves potentially abandoned over a single issue or change in a government election.

I have to respect Turkey for being pragmatic and following its own path by both willing to say no, and also juggling relationships among a very complex set of neighbors.
"We make war that we may live in peace." -- Aristotle
 
tu204
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Mon May 13, 2019 1:48 pm

Spar wrote:
tu204 wrote:
Threatening Turkey to dance to your fiddle isn't the way to work with them especially now with the level of patriotism and nationalism that you see there.

Erdogan doesn't want to be seen as weak or a pushover, so I don't think it mattrrs on what the US threatens him with, he doesn't have much of a choice, he has to tell the US to bug off and will come out on top rating-wise internally.

What exactly is meant by "Threatening Turkey to dance to your fiddle"?


Threatening them with sanctions if they don't do what you want them to do.

As in threatening to not hand over F-35's if they want to buy S-400's...
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
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bikerthai
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Mon May 13, 2019 1:57 pm

janders wrote:
Imo, the attempted coup in 2016 actually shows how strong democracy really is nowadays, in that people took to the streets, and every political party opposed the actions of the band of misguided soldiers.


The reaction to the coupe shows progress. However, the fact that part of the military even thought it had a chance to succeed shows that there is still a ways to go.

As I said democracy is not perfect as was shown in the US where a couple of times now, a government voted in by a minority of the people is ruling the majority (one step back).

But be aware that complete democracy is not a panacea either. Tyranny of the majority can be just as dangerous as a dictatorship.

bt
Intelligent seeks knowledge. Enlightened seeks wisdom.
 
tu204
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Mon May 13, 2019 1:59 pm

Ozair wrote:
sonicruiser wrote:
So much for all the people saying Russia won't sell Turkey the Su-57. It's a win-win for both sides.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/euro ... collapses/

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/2 ... e-of-f-35s

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/russia ... ets-143123

https://ahvalnews.com/su-57/russia-offe ... s-analysis

I think NATO is starting to become more of an obstacle than a benefit for Turkey. US may not want Turkey to get the F35 but they may fear a NATO member buying Russian even more. If they get expelled from the F35 program, guess who's gonna be the first to buy the Su-57. The only way to prevent Turkey from buying Su-57's is to hand over the F35's and the US knows it. Time will tell what happens.

The key is technology transfer and Russia has already stated they aren't transferring technology with the S-400,

.........

the apparent inability of the S-400 system to prevent Israeli incursions into Syria it seems a poor move.


1) Are you aure about that? I thought part of the deal is a certain amount of technology transfer.

2) It hasn't been proven that the S-400 isn't able to see the F-35. From what we can see there is a deal between Russia and Israel to not engage each other. Israel doesn't target anywhere where any Russians can get hurt, doesn't engage Russian aircraft that accidentally fly into Israel (vs. shooting them down like they do with Syrians) and Russia doesn't engage Israeli aicraft.

Israelis use F-16's often and those can be easily detected by S-300/400's.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
Ozair
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Mon May 13, 2019 10:44 pm

tu204 wrote:

1) Are you sure about that? I thought part of the deal is a certain amount of technology transfer.

Multiple Turkish media outlets have reported that in the last six months. The issue remains that Turkey wants to develop their own long range missile systems and no Government selling to them is interested in transferring that technology. According to media reports there is technology transfer happening but not in the specific missile related areas that Turkey wants.

tu204 wrote:

2) It hasn't been proven that the S-400 isn't able to see the F-35. From what we can see there is a deal between Russia and Israel to not engage each other. Israel doesn't target anywhere where any Russians can get hurt, doesn't engage Russian aircraft that accidentally fly into Israel (vs. shooting them down like they do with Syrians) and Russia doesn't engage Israeli aicraft.

Israelis use F-16's often and those can be easily detected by S-300/400's.

It is pretty clear that Israeli aircraft, whether F-35 or F-16, fly with near impunity over Syria. Whether that is due to low RCS, advanced EW systems is likely dependant on the airframe and the situation.


bikerthai wrote:

As I said democracy is not perfect as was shown in the US where a couple of times now, a government voted in by a minority of the people is ruling the majority (one step back).

BT the definition of democracy is not that the party with the most votes wins, else half of Europe governed by minority coalitions would be classed as undemocratic… Nor in the US system is population the definition of a majority for winning the presidential election. You could also argue that the system is working well given no one party controls all three branches of government.
 
Spar
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Tue May 14, 2019 1:08 am

tu204 wrote:
Spar wrote:
What exactly is meant by "Threatening Turkey to dance to your fiddle"?


Threatening them with sanctions if they don't do what you want them to do.
As in threatening to not hand over F-35's if they want to buy S-400's...

With holding transfer of the stealth aircraft to a nation that chooses to acquire counter stealth technology from the US's biggest (most aggressive) military technology competitor and adversary, is predictable and understandable.

IMO the Soviet trained crowd uses hyperbole in awfully clumsy ways.
 
tu204
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Tue May 14, 2019 5:41 am

Ozair wrote:
tu204 wrote:

1) Are you sure about that? I thought part of the deal is a certain amount of technology transfer.

Multiple Turkish media outlets have reported that in the last six months. The issue remains that Turkey wants to develop their own long range missile systems and no Government selling to them is interested in transferring that technology. According to media reports there is technology transfer happening but not in the specific missile related areas that Turkey wants.

tu204 wrote:

2) It hasn't been proven that the S-400 isn't able to see the F-35. From what we can see there is a deal between Russia and Israel to not engage each other. Israel doesn't target anywhere where any Russians can get hurt, doesn't engage Russian aircraft that accidentally fly into Israel (vs. shooting them down like they do with Syrians) and Russia doesn't engage Israeli aicraft.

Israelis use F-16's often and those can be easily detected by S-300/400's.

It is pretty clear that Israeli aircraft, whether F-35 or F-16, fly with near impunity over Syria. Whether that is due to low RCS, advanced EW systems is likely dependant on the airframe and the situation.


bikerthai wrote:

As I said democracy is not perfect as was shown in the US where a couple of times now, a government voted in by a minority of the people is ruling the majority (one step back).

BT the definition of democracy is not that the party with the most votes wins, else half of Europe governed by minority coalitions would be classed as undemocratic… Nor in the US system is population the definition of a majority for winning the presidential election. You could also argue that the system is working well given no one party controls all three branches of government.


1) Thanks for clearing that up. Re-read the Russian sources and they refer to the second shipment and on to be assembled in Turkey. So I assume from partly assembled units.

2) My money is still on coordination between Israeli and Russian militaries. Relationship between the two isn't bad and nobody will win if Israel starts targeting places with Russian servicemen in Syria or if Russia starts knocking Israeli aircraft out of the sky. Note that even when Russian aircraft violate Israeli airspace, Israel just sends a quiet notification/protest. Imagine what they would do to a Syrian aircraft if they get a anywhere near the border...
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
tu204
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Tue May 14, 2019 5:46 am

Spar wrote:
tu204 wrote:
Spar wrote:
What exactly is meant by "Threatening Turkey to dance to your fiddle"?


Threatening them with sanctions if they don't do what you want them to do.
As in threatening to not hand over F-35's if they want to buy S-400's...

With holding transfer of the stealth aircraft to a nation that chooses to acquire counter stealth technology from the US's biggest (most aggressive) military technology competitor and adversary, is predictable and understandable.

IMO the Soviet trained crowd uses hyperbole in awfully clumsy ways.


Depends on how you look at it. Would also mean the US getting to play with the newest anti-aircraft system of their greatest and most aggressive adversary and rival. ;)

I doubt that's happening if they don't get the F-35's.
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
Spar
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Tue May 14, 2019 7:12 am

tu204 wrote:
Depends on how you look at it. Would also mean the US getting to play with the newest anti-aircraft system of their greatest and most aggressive adversary and rival. ;)

I doubt that's happening if they don't get the F-35's.

That isn't a very good selling point for the US.

The US intelligence services know what wavelength the SA-400 operates on, they know the laws of physics and they can make a pretty good approximation of the state of the art of Russian semiconductor manufacturing ability.

So they already know about all they need to know about the SA-400.
 
bobinthecar
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Tue May 14, 2019 2:26 pm

Depends on how you look at it. Would also mean the US getting to play with the newest anti-aircraft system of their greatest and most aggressive adversary and rival.


The S-400 is not made by the Chinese.
 
P1aneMad
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Tue May 14, 2019 4:17 pm

Spar wrote:
tu204 wrote:
Depends on how you look at it. Would also mean the US getting to play with the newest anti-aircraft system of their greatest and most aggressive adversary and rival. ;)

I doubt that's happening if they don't get the F-35's.

That isn't a very good selling point for the US.

The US intelligence services know what wavelength the SA-400 operates on, they know the laws of physics and they can make a pretty good approximation of the state of the art of Russian semiconductor manufacturing ability.

So they already know about all they need to know about the SA-400.

Also the US had extensive access to the S-300 system and can sourly extrapolate what the S-400 is capable off and at what ranges.
 
tu204
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Tue May 14, 2019 5:12 pm

P1aneMad wrote:
Spar wrote:
tu204 wrote:
Depends on how you look at it. Would also mean the US getting to play with the newest anti-aircraft system of their greatest and most aggressive adversary and rival. ;)

I doubt that's happening if they don't get the F-35's.

That isn't a very good selling point for the US.

The US intelligence services know what wavelength the SA-400 operates on, they know the laws of physics and they can make a pretty good approximation of the state of the art of Russian semiconductor manufacturing ability.

So they already know about all they need to know about the SA-400.

Also the US has extensive access to the S-300 system and can sourly extrapolate what the S-400 is capable off and at what ranges.


The US has extensive access to the original S-300, circa late 70's version of it...at least initially the watered down "export" version. But even if they got their hands on a non-export version from Ukraine, they have for themselves to play around with some 70's-80's Soviet technology...

Kinda like getting your hands on a MiG-29A from the 80's that you could buy on EBay a while ago and not realising that it's a little bit different from the MiG-29SMT...
I do not dream about movie stars, they must dream about me for I am real and they are not. - Alexander Popov
 
DigitalSea
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Tue May 14, 2019 6:05 pm

You'd have to make a trip to the desolate landscape of Nevada if you really wanted to know what radars we have in our possession.
 
Ozair
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Fri May 24, 2019 3:05 am

Some strong wording from the Senate Armed Servcies Committee on Turkey and the F-35.

Prohibits funds to transfer the F-35 aircraft or related equipment and intellectual property to the territory of Turkey unless the Secretaries of Defense and State certify that Turkey has not accepted delivery of the S-400 air and missile defense system from the Russian Federation and has provided reliable assurances it will not do so in the future.

https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/i ... ummary.pdf

Turkey meanwhile is convinced it will receive the aircraft and that the US cannot expel Turkey from the JSF Partnership.

Turkey thinks that US can not kick Ankara out from the F-35 deal

Tensions have escalated between two NATO allies after Washington gave Ankara two weeks to decide on its S-400 deal with Russia threatening to remove the country from the F-35 program. But Turkey has so far dismissed the threats.
The US has further escalated tensions with Turkey, threatening its NATO ally with removal from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) Program and sanctions if Ankara goes ahead with its purchase of Russian S-400 defence system from Moscow.
Turkey has repeatedly stated that the S-400 agreement is a done deal that cannot be cancelled, reminding Washington that Ankara, an essential component of the F-35 production process, has invested billions of dollars in participating in the program.
Several anonymous US State Department officials say Turkey has just two weeks to decide on the S-400 issue to avoid facing the consequences, which include its termination from the F-35 program.
“We underscore that Turkey will face very real and negative consequences if it completes its S-400 delivery,” one of the State Department officials said.
“NATO countries need to procure military equipment that is interoperable with NATO systems. A Russian system would not meet that standard,” the official added.
But the Turkish defence department has other thoughts about both the US threat for removal from the program and the interoperability issue between S-400s and F-35s.
“They cannot kick us out from the program, which has the participation of nine countries, without getting the consent of all the members,” a Turkish defence department official said.
“There are no articles in the agreement regulating the removal of a participant country from the program,” the official, who requested anonymity, told TRT World.
Because of the lack of regulations in the agreement, he concludes that Turkey cannot be removed from the program.
Meanwhile, the Turkish defence department continues its preparations to receive F-35s in November and expects to receive the delivery of S-400s from Russia in June, the official also said.

...

https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/turke ... deal-26893
 
jupiter2
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Fri May 24, 2019 6:12 am

^^

I do believe the Turks may end up being very disappointed if they believe they won't be denied their F 35's.
 
Ozair
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Re: The U.S. has threatened to expel Turkey from the F-35

Fri May 24, 2019 8:29 am

jupiter2 wrote:
^^

I do believe the Turks may end up being very disappointed if they believe they won't be denied their F 35's.

Agree 100%. For all their bluster as the article says all they have paid is just over a billion, compared to the 50 odd billion the US has paid and that is before they factor in acquisition. Turkey has already had about that amount for industrial work anyway so the ledger is very square.

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