TWAL1011
Topic Author
Posts: 2317
Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2003 12:39 pm

Don't Try To Tell Me The (U.S.) Economy Is Bad

Mon Aug 12, 2002 11:01 am

Last night:

Circled around the shopping center parking lot for 15 minutes just to find a parking spot. Finally find one and am told it'll be an hour before I can get a table at the restraunt.

Today:

Target store is packed. At least 15 registers open but people still packed 3 deep for check out. Want to get the car washed, but there are probably 15 cars waiting to get in the dang thing. I pass. Go to see "Signs" today. Have to park 1/4 mile from the theater. Get there 1/2 early but still have to sit in the lower rows because all the others are taken.

Guess what. People are spending money like mad, folks. Seems to me like the bad news we are given on the nightly news is based soley on the shape of the stock market. The shape of the stock market is based on bad accounting practices by a handful of corporations.

Then again, maybe I just happen to live in the only city in America where the economy is good. I doubt that.
 
mls515
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Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2000 5:56 am

RE: Don't Try To Tell Me The (U.S.) Economy Is Bad

Mon Aug 12, 2002 11:26 am



Real Estate and Insurance are fine. My older siblings work in insurance and they are doing quite well for themselves.
 
desertjets
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Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2000 3:12 pm

RE: Don't Try To Tell Me The (U.S.) Economy Is Bad

Mon Aug 12, 2002 11:42 am

Driving around a shopping center parking lot does not tell you how the economy is.

Fact is consumer spending and confidence is down. Companies are still laying off people. And corporate profits reflect that.

But certain segments like real estate are doing well... mostly fueled by low interest rates.

This economic downturn is like nothing else. Sure 9/11 played a role, but with the uncovering of the accouting scandals people are uneasy and Wall St. is reflecting that.
Stop drop and roll will not save you in hell. --- seen on a church marque in rural Virginia
 
KRIC777
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RE: Don't Try To Tell Me The (U.S.) Economy Is Bad

Mon Aug 12, 2002 11:48 am

TWAL1011,

I was thinking the same thing the other day when Starbucks revealed it's Q2 profits were up some ridiculous amount.
When a chain is thriving by selling $4.00 cups of coffee, the economy ain't that bad.
The problem is that everyone compares today with the late 90s, when the economy was on fire, largely due (directly or indirectly) to huge amounts of capital invested in high-tech/internet ventures, and stock prices were grossly inflated as a result. Such a combination of huge growth, miniscule unemployment, and negligible inflation may never be dupicated again.
Also, the nightly news anchors apparently are not familiar with the concept of the Business Cycle. Neither expansions nor contractions last forever, as one inevitably leads to the other.
 
TWAL1011
Topic Author
Posts: 2317
Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2003 12:39 pm

RE: Don't Try To Tell Me The (U.S.) Economy Is Bad

Mon Aug 12, 2002 12:05 pm

Driving around a shopping center parking lot does not tell you how the economy is.

Fact is consumer spending and confidence is down.


Don't know if I've ever disagreed with you in the past, DesertJets but I do in this case.

The parking lots, restraunts, and shopping centers are full. And they're full of people spending money and doing so with confidence. Maybe these are the people that don't give a rats arse about what is happening on Wall Street. Neither do I. I have more money now than I ever did, and I'm not afraid to spend some of it.
 
AMRAAM
Posts: 75
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RE: Don't Try To Tell Me The (U.S.) Economy Is Bad

Mon Aug 12, 2002 2:26 pm

Oh it's wonderful, especially while banks give so much credit to all these poor dumb consumers.

Consumer debt is outrageous, banks flood mail boxes with pre approved credit cards and the national debt is disgusting. But who cares as long as we can eat cheesburgers, play the lotto and watch MTV. =B-D
 
brianhames
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RE: Don't Try To Tell Me The (U.S.) Economy Is Bad

Mon Aug 12, 2002 3:13 pm

Good good good.

There tends to be a lot of confusion among many people, people see that the market is down, and they say the economy is bad, when in reality...

the econonmy is great, the market is down, but the economy is great.
 
cba
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RE: Don't Try To Tell Me The (U.S.) Economy Is Bad

Mon Aug 12, 2002 3:34 pm

Checked the stock market lately? The market is the economy. Many people have all of their money, retirement, etc. all in the stock market. When Enron collapsed, many lost their retirements and life savings while Lay (an his friends in Washington *cough* Bush, Cheney) got filthy rich. Anyway, the market is the economy. When the market is down, people lose money, thus making the economy bad.
 
Guest

RE: Don't Try To Tell Me The (U.S.) Economy Is Bad

Mon Aug 12, 2002 4:09 pm

Ever heard of the ostrich syndrome? Americans have the highest level of personal and corporate debt of any nation, and when the music stops the whole house of cards is going to come tumbling down. Warren Buffett (who knows a thing or two about these things) said prior to 9/11 that this recession would last seven years and be the worst in global history.
 
174thfwff
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RE: Don't Try To Tell Me The (U.S.) Economy Is Bad

Mon Aug 12, 2002 4:10 pm

I live in a wealthy town so people's spending hasn't changed much around my area. However the city of Syracuse has become under massive money shortages in every area that's essential. The most hurt is School Budget with big cuts in programs, but my area actually agreed to a tax hike so we are receiving more money for school computers, books, newer programs. Sucks for the city.
XXX
My dad is a stock broker and he's getting new clients every other day or so. Many people just want to buy stocks while they are low. So the market is coming back around slowly, more realistically
XXX
I do agree that this is the level where we were supposed to be, however with the technology boom, it just let to overconfident/over priced stocks that weren't in check reality price wise.
XXX
Hell, Target in my area just built two brand new stores complete with pharmacies. Between the two stores they hired about 200 at each. I was one of the lucky few who got to pick my job however!

-174thfwff
Brooklyn, Queens, Manhattan, Staten, Uptown, what now? Lets make it happen.
 
jwenting
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RE: Don't Try To Tell Me The (U.S.) Economy Is Bad

Mon Aug 12, 2002 4:10 pm

Cba, NOONE got rich off the Enron disaster except maybe some people who saw it coming and dumped their stock beforehand (but they probably lost a lot of money earlier because their stock was worth a lot less than when they bought it too so all the move would do is limit their losses).

The market is not the economy per se. It IS an indicator, but the stockmarket has been largely decoupled from the rest of the economy in the 1990s when stockprices became inflated enormously.
Many people have indeed lost their life savings, and that will have an effect (and a big one). But except those who are retiring within say 5-10 years the net effect may not be all that much in the long run.

Consumer confidence is down. While people still go shopping (less, though) they mostly buy cheaper stuff than they used to.
Less widescreen TVs, more canned soup. Less Mercedes cars, more bicycles. Less computers, more blue jeans. Less ballgowns, more screwdrivers.
I wish I were flying
 
donder10
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RE: Don't Try To Tell Me The (U.S.) Economy Is Bad

Mon Aug 12, 2002 4:59 pm

It depends on how you base your valuations of shares.Based on pe/e,shares are much higher than their historical trend.The market may still be overvalued by 15-20% depsite Bush saying he sees value in the market at its current level.
 
donder10
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RE: Don't Try To Tell Me The (U.S.) Economy Is Bad

Mon Aug 12, 2002 5:02 pm

Also,growth levels from previous years and recently have been revalued down quite a bit too.
 
777236ER
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RE: Don't Try To Tell Me The (U.S.) Economy Is Bad

Mon Aug 12, 2002 8:27 pm

The market ISN'T the economy  Insane The market can effect the economy, but doesn't THAT much. What is more worrying than a downturn in the markets is the amount of debt people are in. Consumer debt is outrageous. There's a percieved downturn in the economy, there isn't an actual downturn. The economy is pretty stagnent, but it's not THAT bad. At least, here in Europe. In the US, with very low interest rates, there's a real risk of stagflation, which NO ONE wants.
Your bone's got a little machine
 
cba
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RE: Don't Try To Tell Me The (U.S.) Economy Is Bad

Tue Aug 13, 2002 1:06 am

"NOONE got rich off the Enron disaster except maybe some people who saw it coming and dumped their stock beforehand..."

The upper management (Lay) dumped their stock before the company went bust, they got richer. Everyone else in the company wasn't allowed to sell their stock, and they lost tons of money.

Back on topic, because so many people have most of their money in the market, the market is the economy. When the market is down, people have less money, and when people have less money, they spend less. This means that corporations get less money and profits are down.
 
Rai
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RE: Don't Try To Tell Me The (U.S.) Economy Is Bad

Tue Aug 13, 2002 1:58 am

Americans have the highest level of personal and corporate debt of any nation, and when the music stops the whole house of cards is going to come tumbling down.

Ummmm...source please? You really want the U.S. to fall down, don't you? You realize that Europe will go right down with it. The world economy is just too intertwined now, whether you like it or not.

But anyways, back to your statement, Canada has the highest level personal debt in the world. You should check out this this link. Next time, please provide back up before making such erroneous statements.

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