artsyman
Posts: 4516
Joined: Wed Feb 28, 2001 12:35 pm

Terrorist Threat: A Poll

Sat Feb 08, 2003 3:48 am

Continuing on from my post the other day, it seems that many of you think the US is paranoid and that no threat exists, so please take the time to offer your answers:

1) What % chance do you think there is of a 9.11 type attack happening on the US mainland next 6 months.

2) What % chance do you think there is of a Biological attack (smallpox etc) happening on the US mainland in the next 6 months.

3) What % chance do you think there is of a Nuclear attack happening on the US mainland in the next 6 months.

4) What % chance do you think there is of Saddam actually having Serious weapons ?

5) What % chance is there that the US troops in IRAQ getting Chemical or Biological weapon attacks against them ?

6) If a significant attack were to happen on US soil, do you think it is justified ?

I personally am of the belief that there will be serious attacks with serious casualties on US soil within the next 6 months, I think there will be biological, but probably not Nuclear.

Jeremy

 
ryanb741
Posts: 5058
Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2002 6:36 pm

RE: Terrorist Threat: A Poll

Sat Feb 08, 2003 3:53 am

1) 2%

2) 0%

3) 0%

4) 80%

5) 60%

6) Depends. If it is an Iraqi attack then yes - not because the Iraqis are in the right but because the US and Iraq would be in a war situation and these things happen in war. If it is a terrorist attack then no, of course not.
I used to think the brain is the most fascinating part of my body. But, hey, who is telling me that?
 
artsyman
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Joined: Wed Feb 28, 2001 12:35 pm

RE: Terrorist Threat: A Poll

Sat Feb 08, 2003 3:58 am

Interesting, your 1-3 are very low. Is this because you don't think people will try or that you think it is difficult to acheive ?

thanks for the reply
Jeremy
 
manni
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RE: Terrorist Threat: A Poll

Sat Feb 08, 2003 3:58 am

While you'r answering these questions, could you also give me an answer to the following question.

What 6 numbers will form the winning combination at the lottery tomorrow?  Laugh out loud
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teva
Posts: 1764
Joined: Thu Feb 01, 2001 12:31 am

RE: Terrorist Threat: A Poll

Sat Feb 08, 2003 4:03 am

QUestions 1 to 5: 0.5% (because you can never say never...)
Question 6:what do you call a significant attack
Teva
Ecoute les orgues, Elles jouent pour toi...C'est le requiem pour un con
 
racko
Posts: 4548
Joined: Tue Nov 06, 2001 12:06 am

RE: Terrorist Threat: A Poll

Sat Feb 08, 2003 4:08 am

1) 10%
2) 5%
3) 0%
4) 50%
5) 20%
6) Terrorist attack ? No. Iraqi attack on civilians? No. Iraqi attack against military? If the US had attacked Iraq first, yes.
 
Guest

RE: Terrorist Threat: A Poll

Sat Feb 08, 2003 4:08 am

I strongly predict another 9/11 type attack before Jan 2004.
 
UAL747
Posts: 6725
Joined: Mon Dec 13, 1999 5:42 am

RE: Terrorist Threat: A Poll

Sat Feb 08, 2003 4:14 am

1.) Maybe not in the next 6 months. I can see smaller terrorist attacks coming. And I do think they will come. Something like 9-11 takes years of planning. Especially since the US is really focusing more heavily on terrorism since 9-11. Now, what I think will eventually come to fruition is a bio attack, and then a nuclear (dirty bomb) attack. When? I dunno. Depends on Iraq and other things. So, I'd give this one about a 20% Chance.

2.) 5% But it IS coming, just not in the next 6 months. Unless Iraq's airforce gets significantly more advanced than the US/UK

3.) 5% It will happen. Unfortunately.

4.) 90% (As screwed up as our government is under Bush, I still believe them over Iraq.)

5.) 30% A bio attack on US troops would be suicide for Saddam. Unfortunately, if this happens, I think we might see the nuclear bomb being used again. This will be a sad day.

6.)Again, I agree with Ryan. War is war, whether I am on the US side or the Iraqi side. However, the UK would get attack way before the US. Well, that is if it's a conventional attack. However, I think Saddam would use terrorist tactics if he were to attack US/UK soil. However, the main difference in a US attack over an Iraqi one is that I have no doubt in my mind that the Iraqi's would do their damndest to kill American civilians. The US, though sometimes making mistakes, doesn't target innocents in this day and age.

UAL747
"Bangkok Tower, United 890 Heavy. Bangkok Tower, United 890 Heavy.....Okay, fine, we'll just turn 190 and Visual Our Way
 
artsyman
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Joined: Wed Feb 28, 2001 12:35 pm

RE: Terrorist Threat: A Poll

Sat Feb 08, 2003 4:18 am

Manni, good to see you making another worthwhile contribution to a thread. I am bothered by this subject, and I think that attacks are more probable that most on this thread thus far, and was curious what other feel.

Jeremy
 
artsyman
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Joined: Wed Feb 28, 2001 12:35 pm

RE: Terrorist Threat: A Poll

Sat Feb 08, 2003 4:19 am

I also agree on the part about war is war, if Iraq is attacked, then they have the right to fight back, that said, I think even if Iraq isnt attacked, the threat of terror in the US is just the same

Jeremy
 
B747-437B
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RE: Terrorist Threat: A Poll

Sat Feb 08, 2003 4:22 am

sorry - wrong thread

[Edited 2003-02-07 20:22:39]
"The A340-300 may boast a long range, but the A340 is underpowered" -- Robert Milton, CEO - Air Canada
 
ryanb741
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Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2002 6:36 pm

RE: Terrorist Threat: A Poll

Sat Feb 08, 2003 6:52 am

Hi Artsyman

In relation to your 1-3, I think the chances of those things happening are low because (and I'll go by category)

1 - US security has wised up to this, and intelligence resources are at 100%. Chances are the people would be caught in the planning stage. Of course, it is 100% likely someone out there is planning another 9/11, but successfully pulling it off is a long shot

2 - No way. If the terrorists had those weapons they'd have used them already, probably on Israel first. 9/11 was devastating but was relatively low tech. I can't see the terrorists being able to successfuly deploy those weapons, not without a country like Iraq/North Korea helping them. And you can bet Western intelligence is absolutely crawling over those places

3 -Again, like above. I'm sure terrorists might have Nuclear materials, but turning them into a bomb is something entirely different. Possible someone might try a 'dirty bomb', but getting it into the US ain't going to be a piece of cake. I really can't see it happening.


One further prediction -

A nuclear conflict taking place in North Korea within the next 2 years - 90%  Sad It is almost inevitable I'm afraid. If I was Bush and Blair, I'd be going after those mothers first.
I used to think the brain is the most fascinating part of my body. But, hey, who is telling me that?
 
747-451
Posts: 2327
Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2000 5:50 am

RE: Terrorist Threat: A Poll

Sat Feb 08, 2003 8:17 am

1) 50-50%

2) 50-50%

3) 10%

4) 99.9%

5) 90%

6) There is never a justification for terrorism, period. There is no "moral equivelency" or "one man's terrorist is anothers Freedom fighter" (becuase we have supposedly evolved from that - or atleast some cultures have). If there is another act of terrorism on our soil, we should use what ever "severe" weapons are needed to obliterate the perpatrator and do sufficent enough damage to act as a deterent, regardless of "collateral damage" since all terrorism does is commit casualties on the "collaterals" to begin with.
 
TWAL1011
Posts: 2317
Joined: Mon Nov 10, 2003 12:39 pm

RE: Terrorist Threat: A Poll

Sat Feb 08, 2003 2:15 pm

1) 50%

2) 10% - The spread of a biological attack can't be contained by borders. Others will be affected, including those not intended.

3) 50% - for a dirty bomb
10% - for a real nuke.

The dirty bomb is more feasible. Easier to achieve and high marks for psychological damage. Real nukes? Someone else besides the terrorists will be held accountable for the tremendous loss of life and effect on the world economy.

4) 100% - He secretly destroyed his Anthax??? Why? Yeah, right. (Just for starters)

5) 95% - Saddam will not hesitate to use whatever he has when he knows his hours are numbered.

6) Against a military target? Sure. All is fair in love and war. If Saddam can reach our bases, so be it. As an attack on U.S. civilians? Of course not. We won't attack his. No modern, civilized country would attack civilians.
 
UAL747
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RE: Terrorist Threat: A Poll

Sun Feb 09, 2003 6:58 pm

TWAL1011, laughing my ass off over here. Since when has Iraq been modern and civilzed in international policy, and even more so in domestic policy? You can bet your ass that if he could, he'd be killing as many Americans as he could get his hands on. First of all, he doesn't have the technology to be surgical about bombing as the US does, and secondly, he doesn't give a rat's ass.

UAL747
"Bangkok Tower, United 890 Heavy. Bangkok Tower, United 890 Heavy.....Okay, fine, we'll just turn 190 and Visual Our Way

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