CX747
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Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Sun Apr 06, 2003 3:04 pm

For all of those naysayers and anti-American board members, I have the latest and greatest news. Currently the President of the United States George Bush has an approval rating of 67%, meanwhile his close allie the Prime Minister of England Tony Blair has had his approval rating for dealing with Iraq jump from 35% to 50% in only a week. Oh times they are a changing.

Here is to President Bush's reelection in 2004. Forgive me, but I'm not sure when Blair is up for reelection.

Bush in 2004
Guiliani in 2008
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
Guest

RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Sun Apr 06, 2003 3:24 pm

Yes, I saw the article on this ... 750 people were asked their opinion, that's bound to represent a reasonable part of the community.




ADG
 
CX747
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Sun Apr 06, 2003 3:26 pm

If the poll asked 750 people of varying wealth and education the same questions, then yes, it should show the vast part of the community. I believe that the poll was done nationwide. Don't be upset because your minority is growing smaller!
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
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yyz717
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Sun Apr 06, 2003 3:29 pm

As CX747 said, a random statistical survey of 750 people from a cross section of society is usually very accurate.

In this case much to the absolute hatred of ADG though.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
9V-SVE
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Sun Apr 06, 2003 3:30 pm

High Approval Ratings during the war do not always say the results of the next election. Take Bush's daddy. His rating skyrocketed during the Gulf War I, but they dropped and he lost the election to that womanizer Clinton.
 
Guest

RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Sun Apr 06, 2003 3:34 pm

To be fair, Blair and Bush are not the only ones enjoying great poll results right now:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,925152,00.html

SHORT EXCERPT: Opinion polls in France show that approval for Jacques Chirac's anti-war policy have reached 90%, the highest recorded rating for any government programme since surveys started here in 1938.

http://www.expatica.com/germany.asp?pad=190,205,&item_id=30059

SHORT EXCERPT: German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's popularity has grown since the start of the war in Iraq as his Social Democratic Party (SPD) profits from the government's opposition to military action, a leading opinion poll confirmed Friday.

As far as Bush's high numbers are concerned, well, they are to be expected at a time of war. They were even higher after 9/11, but they dropped -- slowly but surely -- later on. Earlier this year, one poll even showed that a generic Democrat would defeat Bush. Of course, 2004 is a long way away; I trust that most Americans will realize that he Bush is simply bad for our nation (in so many ways), and elect someone else. This great nation simply deserves a better president.
 
CX747
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Sun Apr 06, 2003 3:34 pm

You are correct in your statement about the elder Bush's Presidency. His numbers started to slip when the economy went south. Currently the economy is south and we have gone to war. Despite this, his approval ratings have slightly increased. It is my opinion that once the war is over, the economy will rebound with renewed enthusiasm and we will see 4 more years of Bush in the White House.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
CX747
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Sun Apr 06, 2003 3:38 pm

I'm sorry but I just find it remarkable that you continue to think Bush is bad for the country. Thankfully most people do not agree with you! I remember the poll regarding Democratic hopefuls against Bush. I would love to see it redone right now. 2004 is a long way away. More than likely, the economy will have rebounded, we will have freed Iraq along with continueing our war on terrorism.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
Guest

RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Sun Apr 06, 2003 3:57 pm

Only time will tell, CX747. BTW, don't think that Bush is bad for our country just because of this war; I base my opinion on a whole list of his policies and attitudes.

Interestingly, some other pro-war leaders are NOT enjoying success at the polls (quite the opposite, in fact):

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/2896409.stm

SHORT EXCERPT: In contrast to Tony Blair, who has increased his popularity since the war started, there is little cheer for Mr Berlusconi in this week's opinion polls.
Only 35% of Italians are behind him.


http://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/04/international/europe/04MADR.html?ex=1050037200&en=47b37a11bfea2490&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLE

SHORT EXCERPT: "War sinks Aznar's popularity," proclaimed El País, Spain's leading daily newspaper and a critic of the Aznar government. A poll taken for the paper five days into the invasion showed Spaniards citing the war as the second main issue of concern, after unemployment. Mr. Aznar's approval rating, already flagging after seven years in power, had fallen 10 points in three months.


 
Sabena 690
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Sun Apr 06, 2003 4:33 pm

All those polls are certainly very accurate  Yeah sure

I haven't seen one good US poll until now... so this one will certainly be highly accurate  Yeah sure

And 750 people in a large country like America means NOTHING. Get first some survey - methods before you say things like that...

DUMP Bush 2004!!!!
 
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yyz717
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Sun Apr 06, 2003 4:39 pm

I haven't seen one good US poll until now... so this one will certainly be highly accurate

How do you define a "good" poll? One that appeals to your own political persuasion?

And 750 people in a large country like America means NOTHING. Get first some survey - methods before you say things like that...

Actually, it can be highly accurate. Any basic understanding of statistics can show that small sample sizes can be very accurate.


I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
Sabena 690
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Sun Apr 06, 2003 4:51 pm

Yyz, you don't need much insight to know how diversified the culture and people are from the East Coast to the West Coast. Do you actually know how less 750 people is for a survey of a country with all those millions and millions of inhabitants?

One that appeals to your own political persuasion?

 Yeah sure

One that appeals to the RULES! But following the rules is apparently a big problem in the US, certainly if your monkey president doesn't follow them already.

I have a book of 420 pages of theory about surveys to learn within one month for exams, so don't say I know nothing about this.
 
Guest

RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Sun Apr 06, 2003 5:46 pm

hee hee ...750 people asked out of 285 million .. there is no way they can get a fair and reasonable "demographic" out of that, no matter how much yyz bitches about anti americanism (although the rest of us can ponder the relevance of his ranting, guess he feels if he says it often enough it'll become true).





ADG
 
Banco
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Sun Apr 06, 2003 9:09 pm

750 people is a relatively small sample, yes, but it remains likely that provided it was done properly (and I see no evidence to suggest it wasn't) it should give a reasonably accurate figure. Psephological history shows that opinion polls of around a thousand quoted respondents provide an accurate figure to within three percentage points. Ten thousand respondents only narrows the accuracy level by a further percentage point at most. In truth, it simply doesn't provide a much more accurate reflection of public opinion when larger samples are taken.

The chances are that it is probably accurate.
She's as nervous as a very small nun at a penguin shoot.
 
Staffan
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Sun Apr 06, 2003 9:14 pm

While one should never believe the exact figures of any statistics, they usually give a pretty rough idea on people's opinions.

Staffan
 
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yyz717
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Sun Apr 06, 2003 10:42 pm

750 people asked out of 285 million .. there is no way they can get a fair and reasonable "demographic" out of that, no matter how much yyz bitches about anti americanism

This shows how little you know about statistics. Or perhaps how unwilling you are to accept poll results not to your liking.

ADG. In her little world.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
JetService
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Sun Apr 06, 2003 10:49 pm

Sabena/ADG, quit your crying, geeez. I hate to tell you, but these polls actually do have a degree of accuracy. They're generally within 3 or 4 % points. We don't have just one poll either. Almost all news agencies and several private polling companies run these all the time and they are all saying pretty much the same thing. Suck it up and move on for godssake!
"Shaddap you!"
 
Sabena 690
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Sun Apr 06, 2003 10:53 pm

No Yyz, YOU in your unwilling world, because YOU don't want to know that this poll is crap, only because it reflects YOUR opinion.

It is impossible to generalise the opinion of 750 people over 285 million people, therefore the differences are just TOO BIG.

Bull sh*t, all I can say...

BTW, the same counts for the polls in Europe, for example that more than 90% is against the war...
 
Sabena 690
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Sun Apr 06, 2003 11:02 pm

JetService, thanks for saying once again you don't know what you are talking about.

Most polls are indeed made with an accurracy of 95%, with an additional 3-4% it can change. This has one condition: the ones who gave their opinions have to be representative for the whole population. And this is impossible with 750 people in this case, if you want to generalise it over the whole American population.

So say true things, or shut up.
 
Alpha 1
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Sun Apr 06, 2003 11:40 pm

You are correct in your statement about the elder Bush's Presidency. His numbers started to slip when the economy went south. Currently the economy is south and we have gone to war. Despite this, his approval ratings have slightly increased.

Before the war, his numbers were slipping badly. The American people do rally around their president during a conflict, and this one is no different. But when the conflict ends, what then? What if the occupation goes badly? What happens when people focus on the economy again, and Bush's mismanagement of that? He may find out a lesson his father found out-war popularity only lasts about as long as the war is going on, then reality sinks in again.

If this economy doesn't make a 180, and soon, Bush could have a world of hurt come the election.

I'm sorry but I just find it remarkable that you continue to think Bush is bad for the country.

He has lunatics around him like Cheney, Rumsfeld and Ashcroft; his only answer to the economy is "cut taxes", which can do as much harm sometimes as good. He's trying to pack the courts with right-wing extremists. Through acts like the Patriot Act, he's and his nut running Justice are trying to get rid of basic personal freedoms. He's tarnished our image in two short years, by pushing us into a war that was not necessary. He's bad for our country.

But with a continent like the US, with all those states, so far located from eachother, all those differences, it is IMPOSSIBLE to have a 'good' survey.

Not really, Sabena 690. Polls aren't perfect, but if you look, most say they have a margain of error of 3 to 4%, and, for the most part, they are fairly accurate. In the last presidential eleciton, they were basically dead-on in saying the election was a dead-heat. In '92, on the final day of polling, Bill Clinton was 6% up on George Bush, and won the election by 8%. So it isn't impossible.

I think we rely way to much on polls, but they are, for the most part, pretty accurate in the snapshots they take for a given point in time.
 
Glenn
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Sun Apr 06, 2003 11:45 pm

Alpha, the ending of the war has been solved. Move into Syria  Smile/happy/getting dizzy possibly Korea but they didn't so it too easily the last time, gotta think a bit more on them
 Smile/happy/getting dizzy
 
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yyz717
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Sun Apr 06, 2003 11:54 pm

It is impossible to generalise the opinion of 750 people over 285 million people, therefore the differences are just TOO BIG.

Statistical surveys can be very accurate with small sample sizes.The companies that conduct these are very good at getting accurate sample sizes.

No Yyz, YOU in your unwilling world, because YOU don't want to know that this poll is crap, only because it reflects YOUR opinion.

Someone is angry over nothing......

Bull sh*t, all I can say...

So it seems....


I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
TechRep
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Sun Apr 06, 2003 11:56 pm


CX747,

You posted something positive about Bush which the rabble can't handle. Those liberal in nature find this information offensive and will attack your source as incredible. These same individuals who have no professional credentials with regard to statistics all of a sudden can make comments that it is flawed. They offer no proof, evidence or any facts to that back up their argument, other than the typical sarcasm. At least back up your words with some facts, it makes you just that much more credible when you do.

Recently Gallup Organization, one of the more trusted and respected statistical survey houses, did a similar study and came up with very similar results.



Let's see how people who know what they are talking about go about doing these things.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr030403.asp

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,012 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 29-30, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points.

Notice Gallup only polled 1,012 people and the numbers were very close, in fact the numbers for Bush on the new Poll have dropped slightly.

Another point I noticed was how ADG replied. In her hunger to belittle and befuddle YyZ717 she actually flip-flopped on her argument.

REPLY 1 - Yes, I saw the article on this ... 750 people were asked their opinion, that's bound to represent a reasonable part of the community.

ADG

REPLY 12 - hee hee ...750 people asked out of 285 million .. there is no way they can get a fair and reasonable "demographic" out of that, no matter how much yyz bitches about anti Americanism (although the rest of us can ponder the relevance of his ranting, guess he feels if he says it often enough it'll become true).

ADG


Blinded....Ooops

Sabena690 apparently you think that these polling houses, some who have been in business 75 years just call people randomly out of the phone book. These are scientific surveys conducted by, well scientists duh. Here is how it works :

FACT NOT FICTION!! It is not impossible Sabena690 read on and follow the link.

The Number Of Interviews Or Sample Size Required

One key question faced by Gallup statisticians: how many interviews does it take to provide an adequate cross-section of Americans? The answer is, not many -- that is, if the respondents to be interviewed are selected entirely at random, giving every adult American an equal probability of falling into the sample. The current US adult population in the continental United States is 187 million. The typical sample size for a Gallup poll which is designed to represent this general population is 1,000 national adults.

The actual number of people which need to be interviewed for a given sample is to some degree less important than the soundness of the fundamental equal probability of selection principle. In other words - although this is something many people find hard to believe - if respondents are not selected randomly, we could have a poll with a million people and still be significantly less likely to represent the views of all Americans than a much smaller sample of just 1,000 people - if that sample is selected randomly.

Here is the link to get more information.

http://www.gallup.com/help/FAQs/poll1.asp


TechRep

GWB 2004'
Jeb Bush 2008'
 
Glenn
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Mon Apr 07, 2003 12:01 am

I think you are mis reading ADGs post

To me she is making a comment the first time as a sarcastic remark that 750 people represent the majority

Which is what she says in the 12 post

but then I have only read a snippet from you which is probably designed that way to twist the truth
 
Alpha 1
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Mon Apr 07, 2003 12:04 am

TechRep, trust me, Jeb Bush won't have a prayer in '08, so you can stop dreaming about that right now. I still think, unless this Bush Recession doesn't end soon, that GWB will have more trouble getting re-elected than you can ever imagine.
 
TechRep
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Mon Apr 07, 2003 12:16 am

If I misread it I apologize ADG, I Read it like 3 times and thats what I took away from it.

TechRep
 
goingboeing
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Mon Apr 07, 2003 12:21 am

CX747 - means nothing really....what were Bush's daddy's approval ratings during "Operation Desert Storm"? I believe they were higher than juniors. But it seems that somewhere along the lines, Bush Sr forgot that the economy wasn't doing too good, and the approval ratings plummetted enough that he was voted out of office. Perhaps junior is hoping that this war isn't over too soon, maybe that it can drag on until June of next year, THEN we can "kick Saddam's butt" and get those approval ratings high in time for the November election. Either that, or maybe he's planning on bombing Syria in June of 2004.
 
MxCtrlr
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Mon Apr 07, 2003 12:36 am

PHX-LJU, I trust that most Americans will realize that he Bush is simply bad for our nation (in so many ways), and elect someone else. This great nation simply deserves a better president.

That only works if the political parties put up someone worth voting for. In the past ten years, neither party has put up a candidate that was a clearly better-qualified candidate. Our Presidential elections of late, have come down to nothing more than a popularity contest. As shown in the last election, the majority of the country didn't clearly want either candidate! Most on this board love to slam Bush but what would it be like with the alternative in power (Al Gore)? Can anyone say that the economy would be in any better shape? The airline industry would not be in the shambles it is in today (remembering that, UAL was losing money in 2000 - while Bill Clinton was still in office)? I highly doubt we would be in any better shape domestically with Gore than we are now with Bush!

MxCtrlr  Smile/happy/getting dizzy
Freight Dogs Anonymous - O.O.T.S.K.  Smokin cool
DAMN! This SUCKS! I just had to go to the next higher age bracket in my profile! :-(
 
heavymetal
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Mon Apr 07, 2003 1:27 am

Regarding statistics. Being in the media and following the polls, I've noticed:

There seems like there will ALWAYS be betwen 28 and 35 percent of Americans sucking up to Hopalong Bush, irrespective of issue. He could be caught smoking bananas and singing showtunes in Speedos and just under a third of Americans will convince themselves (vit a liddle help from der Fox Newsen) there was a good reason for it.

There will always be between 25 and 33 percent who know him for the corrupt little tyrant he is.

Taking the sum of the maximum of those two numbers we have, 67 percent. That means the remaining 33 percent are the swing 'moderates.'

As we've seen in the past two weeks, their opinions are fickle. A slew of headlines in one direction and they go there, in the other, the same (I noticed an ominous trend over the past week, by the way. CENTCOM no longer admits to Coalition casualties unless the event is rather spectacular, like the friendly fire bombing today. It seems they've also shang-hai'd there embedded news organizations not to dwell on it. That certainly keeps a lid on negative public opinion. Until someone calls bullsh*t on them....then NOTHING they say will be believed.)

If, by the grace of the Almighty, hostilities cease by mid spring, I dare say we'll see a spike in the stock market ....even consumer confidence.

But Bushes are historically incapable of truly understanding how real world economics affect normal people. I predict the present economic funk lasts through the end of the year (most major dailies carried stories this past week of a slide back into recession). And I've been more and more impressed with the Democratic frontrunners willingness to tenaciously spit back at the sound byte venom proffered by borish Republicans (John Kerry: "I don't need to be lectured on patriotism by the likes of Tom Delay"..."the likes!" . Beautiful!).

Anyone But Bush in 04
 
Sabena 690
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Mon Apr 07, 2003 2:34 am

TechRep, I suggest: just believe your polls.

I may say what I want, you will never believe me just because I am anti Bush. I recommend you to go to a University, ask a book about methods-surveys there (theory!), read it and you will know why (make that it is a good book, there is a lot of crap on the market).

I once saw the questions that 'well respected' poll thing asks, I had to laugh my a$$ off... scientifical? NO!

Oh, and to those that really believe that 750 people can represent the US, and even accurate, I suggest just to believe your own stupidity.

Alpha1, as I said above, 95% or 99% accurate, IT DOES NOT MATTER!! First your sample must be REPRESENTATIVE, than you can calculate as much as you want...
 
TechRep
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Mon Apr 07, 2003 2:47 am

Sabena690,

You post no counter-proof to support your argument, just the standard Anti-Bush rhetoric. An organization that has been around 75 years and made a business out of Polls seems to say you’re wrong. Gallup is usually very close and their long reputation can not be overlooked. I will believe the scientists at Gallup over a First/Second year university student. To me this seems like the most logical thing until you prove otherwise.

Thanks,

TechRep

Bush in 2004'
Jeb Bush 2008'
 
Sabena 690
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Mon Apr 07, 2003 2:59 am

TechRep, give me all the details of the 750 people sample (question, everything),... and I'll have a look this evening.

For the rest: you would be surprised if you should know how bad most surveys are. In the time I get this course, I was already amazed a lot of times with examples I had to hear. Oh yeah, for illustration: it is due to the bad quality of samples to predict elections, popularity,... that several high quality newspapers cancelled their contract with poll predictors, just because they are crap.

Where are you now with your 'efficiency'?
Don't be so naïve to believe all those polls are thrustful...Once again, you have to study about it first before you see those things. I would also react like you if I hadn't had this course...

Oh yeah: in your post above I see that random telephone dialing is used. Nice, because this is the cheapest. Not the most thrustful. And 1000 people is (once again) not enough to generalise this to the whole American population.

/Frederic
 
Guest

RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Mon Apr 07, 2003 7:11 am

TechRep,

Wake up mate ... you live in a country of 285000000 people, a 750 person poll is worthless. That doesn't even cover 1 from every city, let alone anything else.

By the way, they poll all the time ... did you know that the Liberal Party have won 2 elections in the past 6 years, the polls told us that Labor would win both times.

By the way, any poll now would be slanted anyway because many people will support the military regardless and that ensures a poll isn't necessarily accurate. Some people are unable to separate the government action from the military action.

Poll = clowns





ADG
 
TechRep
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Mon Apr 07, 2003 7:14 am

ADG,

What basis is it worthless can you prove it? Read Reply 30 your no expert I'll believe the Experts over a house mom.

TechRep
 
CX747
Topic Author
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Mon Apr 07, 2003 2:51 pm

Thanks for the info Techrep, I was going to look for that type of material today but alas my roomate used the comp for an extended amount of time. I agree with you that 750-1000 people CAN truly show the feelings of nation. One earlier poster talked about having a book and an upcoming exam on polling. Well, my friend, when you actually pass the exam and graduate as I have then you can come and discuss the validity of the poll. 750 people if choosen wisely and professionally can and will give you a good insight into what the overall consensus is.

As for President Bush being a bad President, I just laugh. One of the things you Bush haters must really hate is the fact that even when everything was going right, Clinton wasn't nearly as loved. Your lunatic fringe of Bush haters grows smaller and smaller everyday in the place where it really counts. That is the U.S.A. Seeing as Australians and fellas from Belgium aren't allowed to vote, your "feelings" about Bush amount to nothing. I'm guessing that the far leftist homosexual flying heavymetal will vote for anyone against Bush, but his overall status as it is puts him in a small minority. Sorry, but it is more than likely that Bush will win in 2004. Just for fun, which Democrat do you think could beat Bush?

One flaw though in some of my friends posts is their support for Jeb Bush in 2008. While Jeb is doing an outstanding job in Florida, I feel that there is no finer candidate for 2008 than one ex-NYC Mayor Rudolph Guiliani.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
 
Guest

RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Mon Apr 07, 2003 5:39 pm

TechRep,

I hope your not inferring that "house moms" are stupid or anything because that's a large percentage of the population, but a portion of the population that excludes me. Assuming of course that your term "house mom" refers to stay at home mothers.

Get off your high horse, i'm not saying that your beloved prez won't be re-elected. But the fact remains that polls of 750 people in a country the size of yours (in a country the size of MINE) is worthless.

It doesn't take a mental genius to figure that out.





ADG
 
Guest

RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Mon Apr 07, 2003 5:45 pm

CX747 wrote:

"I'm guessing that the far leftist homosexual flying heavymetal will vote for anyone against Bush, but his overall status as it is puts him in a small minority."


You can't respond to Heavymetal's intelligent arguments, so you decide to make an issue of who he is. Nice going...  Yeah sure BTW, I could also point out some fairly common features of Bush-lovers such as yourself, but I don't like stereotypes (they are often innacurate), so I won't.

[Edited 2003-04-07 10:47:25]
 
TechRep
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Mon Apr 07, 2003 9:04 pm

ADG,

Typical rant, use lots of expletives, always talk around the subject and show no proof to back anything up. Since you'll never admit your wrong we have all learned how you act when your wrong.

TechRep
 
Glenn
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Mon Apr 07, 2003 9:11 pm

Tech rep, it's all there, you just need to read the posts for what its worth, rqather then trying to find a way to belittle ADG.

I have tried for years. It just doesn't work  Smile/happy/getting dizzy

1 Barrel
2 Barrels
3Barrels
4

 
goingboeing
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Mon Apr 07, 2003 10:36 pm

What basis is it worthless can you prove it? Read Reply 30 your no expert I'll believe the Experts over a house mom.

Did this poll of 750 people include any "house moms"? Or was the sampling taken as people were leaving the "gun and knife" show over the weekend? 750 is not at all representative of the USA - besides, I know several "house mom's" who possess far more common sense than 99% of the politicians.
 
erj190
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Mon Apr 07, 2003 11:26 pm


Instead of discussing the technical characteristics of the survey, it would be better to check if those numbers make sense.

In any country, whenever there is a war, if that war is considered as a fair and just war, population will be in favor.

wetter the regime they live in is a democracy or a dictatorship, they will rally behind their leaders.

Therefore, the result of the survey makes sense.

750 individuals can be enough if the organization that carried out the study, believes that those 750 persons are representative of the whole population.

Of course, poles, surveys and the likes can be subject to error, when the chosen universe is not correctly chosen.

But the fact is:

Basically ALL the surveys in the US and the UK are effectively favorable to the war.

We should try to understand why, instead of discussing the surveys, because there is one very basic thing about surveys we all should know about. They can't be ALL WRONG.

The US public opinion is favorable to war because the US administration lied to the public. They have created the idea of a very short two or three days war (this was hinted not explicitly said, because the people at the Pentagon clearly knew much more than they were willing to say).

Having made their case, the war could start, as it did, because the public opinion was now in favor.

After having started the war, the problems start to appear. (I don't believe the strategists at the Pentagon didn't had a hint about how the Iraqis would fight).

Now, with some American victims and with a population enraged by the pictures of US P.O.W's (even better if you give the impression that some of the deaths took place later - means: killed). The US population is prepared to continue support for war.

We must try to understand the reasons why the public opinion actually reasons like it reasons.

The US administration has been extremely successful in selling their product (War on Iraq).

The Pentagon marketed the war, like any big company would have done to guarantee good sales to some soap, deodorant or pizza.

The surveys are just showing they (Pentagon and Dep. of Defense) worked well, the marketing was good, advertisement was even better and the product is selling like hell.

We may not like those people, but we must recognize they were astonishingly smart. (Unlike Saddam and his idiotic advisors. The Iraqi minister of information is a pitiful image of idiotic propaganda)
 
CX747
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RE: Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.

Tue Apr 08, 2003 2:10 am

First off, the Administration never lied to the public. I watch the news all the time and I never heard of a 2-3 day war. Before this started, I thought that the war would take about an month and half. In less than 2 weeks, U.S. and British tanks are rolling through major cities. The administration was never the ones that said this would be a "short" war. That was the doing of the networks. Time and time again the Administration stated that the war wouldn't be done "overnight" and that it wasn't going to be easy. If people decided to buy into what some "analyst" on CNN was saying, then that is there own problem.

What I do think happened though is that the war started before they were truly ready. It seems to me that the administration thought Turkey would allow them to use their airbases along with their land for a "Northern Front". Why the Pentagon continued to mess around with the Turkish government after their original veto is beyond me. No matter what Centcom says, they started the war with less men than they needed. The 4th I.D. better get its butt in gear because the 3rd I.D. and 1st MEU have been going at it for almost 2 weeks straight with almost no breaks.

President's approval ratings are always better during wars because as you said, people rally around their leaders. Another reason that his approval rating has increased is because the public by and far have seen that the world didn't come to an end after the French & U.N. fiasco. People were sitting on the proverbial "fence" and couldn't make up their mind on whether the U.S. could go alone or not. Once the decision was made, most people realized that it was okay. Thankfully with all the breaking news from the battlefield, we don't have to listen to Chirac or Koffi Anan go on and on anymore. Sorry fellas but you relegated yourselves to the sidelines in this one.
"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower

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