N79969
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Sars And Global Stability

Thu Apr 10, 2003 10:55 am

This SARS outbreak has a potentially huge and adverse impact on global stability. It is widely-quoted that the Chinese economy must grow something like 7-10% annually just to keep up with population growth. One of the reasons that the US has consistently kept free trade relations with China (besides cold cash) was to prevent the unemployment and upheaval that would certainly result if China were cut out of US markets. If China were to experience massive internal disruption, some experts have theorized that the government would drum up nationalism and could attack Taiwan.

Despite SARS relatively low mortality rate, it has the potential to severely disrupt China's economy particularly in the crucial Pearl River Delta region.

Right now it just seems like a nasty disease but history takes some strange turns sometimes.
 
N79969
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RE: Sars And Global Stability

Thu Apr 10, 2003 12:17 pm

Does anyone else have thoughts on this?

I am really worried considering that China is using its resources to hide the problem rather than agressively dealing with the issue. It's stupid to save face if you have less face to save as a result.

http://www.time.com/time/asia/news/daily/0,9754,441615,00.html?cnn=yes
 
NWA742
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RE: Sars And Global Stability

Thu Apr 10, 2003 12:35 pm





LOL j/k N79969.

I agree with you on China.

It seems as those SARS is much less of a problem in the US. The number of cases is very low. Most of those who have the disease are not even being hospitalized, most have not developed pneumonia, and most recover within 7 days.

I think the US is much better off for 2 reasons:

A. The cases in the US have originated from Asia, from Asian people. Scientists say the virus can only live for 3 hours in the air, so it weakens more and more every minute it's in the air, also, the virus may weaken continously in the body, since most people recover from the illness. Therefore, it's a weaker strain for someone who catches it from someone else and so one. The US strains have probably traveled a long way, providing plenty of situations for the virus to weaken.

B. The US has the best healthcare, far better than most of Asia.




-NWA742
Some people are like slinkies - not good for anything, but they bring a smile to your face when pushed down the stairs
 
NWA
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RE: Sars And Global Stability

Thu Apr 10, 2003 4:10 pm

I hear its got some cases in Toranto, which is were I am going in 3 weeks for my senior trip. If I die, you guys get to split up my user neame.  Wink/being sarcastic
23 victor, turn right heading 210, maintain 3000 till established, cleared ILS runwy 24.
 
N79969
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RE: Sars And Global Stability

Thu Apr 10, 2003 8:40 pm

NWA,

Disturbing picture.

I am not worried about the disease hitting the US...I'm worried about the destabilizing effect it will have in China where there is worse health care and a government bent on insisting that all is well.
 
N79969
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RE: Sars And Global Stability

Thu Apr 24, 2003 12:52 pm

Now that things have become decidedly worse, I think this thread is more timely. Unfortunately. I think China is in for a major social and economic crisis. If 5% mortality rate holds, that could millions of deaths in China and economic disaster.

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