United Airline
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The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Sun Jun 08, 2003 12:05 pm

Hi folks.

From what I heard, the unemployment rate in USA and Canada was once over 10%, highest ever in US and Canadian history. Can anyone confirm that?

What was the highest unemployment rate ever achieved by USA and Canada? Also when?
 
JAL777
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Sun Jun 08, 2003 12:08 pm

I believe the unemployment rate reached nearly 30% during the Great Depression of the 1930's.
 
United Airline
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Sun Jun 08, 2003 12:23 pm

What's the highest unemployment rate in Canada and USA between 1970s to 2000s? Anything like 10+%?
 
airworthy
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Sun Jun 08, 2003 2:03 pm

According to this site the US unemployment rate since 1939....

http://www.bls.gov/cps/#empstat_q

Highest Unemployment Rate = 9.7% 1982
Lowest Unemployment Rate = 1.2% 1944 (WWII)
 
United Airline
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Sun Jun 08, 2003 2:20 pm

And the second lowest? Heard that it was around 8% in 1986-87. Or even late 90s.

What about Canada?
 
airworthy
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Sun Jun 08, 2003 2:53 pm

Here's a better look, from the end of WWII onwards...
The lowest in modern times is 4.0% in 2000

Year Ann Avg
1948 3.8
1949 5.9
1950 5.3
1951 3.3
1952 3.0
1953 2.9
1954 5.5
1955 4.4
1956 4.1
1957 4.3
1958 6.8
1959 5.5
1960 5.5
1961 6.7
1962 5.5
1963 5.7
1964 5.2
1965 4.5
1966 3.8
1967 3.8
1968 3.6
1969 3.5
1970 4.9
1971 5.9
1972 5.6
1973 4.9
1974 5.6
1975 8.5
1976 7.7
1977 7.1
1978 6.1
1979 5.8
1980 7.1
1981 7.6
1982 9.7
1983 9.6
1984 7.5
1985 7.2
1986 7.0
1987 6.2
1988 5.5
1989 5.3
1990 5.6
1991 6.8
1992 7.5
1993 6.9
1994 6.1
1995 5.6
1996 5.4
1997 4.9
1998 4.5
1999 4.2
2000 4.0
2001 4.7
2002 5.8



[Edited 2003-06-08 07:55:54]
 
United Airline
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Sun Jun 08, 2003 4:52 pm

Thanks a lot!

What about Canada?

Seems that Australia and New Zealand suffer from a much worse unemployment rate!
 
aloges
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Sun Jun 08, 2003 7:44 pm

Looking at that list would make many German politicians want to cry... 9.7 as a maximum, not average! Yeeeehaaaa! Another interesting thing is how it went from 1989 till today.
Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.
 
pacificjourney
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:24 am

Yet again it should be pointed out that comparing different countries unemployment rates is pointless. The figures are gathered in vastly different ways and mean vastly different things.
" Help, help ... I'm being oppressed ... "
 
donder10
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:28 am

But with an increasing number of countries using the ILO measure....
 
pacificjourney
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:32 am

Really ?

I wasn't aware of any country changing it's method lately. It's just such political dynamite for them to do so.
" Help, help ... I'm being oppressed ... "
 
aloges
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Mon Jun 09, 2003 12:47 am

AFAIK, someone is unemployed in Germany when he/she works less than 15 hours per week. In the UK, that limit is 5 hours. Imagine what opposition, unions and nearly everyone else would say if that were to be changed by any governmet.
Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.
 
delta-flyer
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Mon Jun 09, 2003 2:02 am

I took Airworthy's data and plotted it, superimposing (by color) the party of the current administration. Interesting result.

Pete

"In God we trust, everyone else bring data"
 
desertjets
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Mon Jun 09, 2003 2:08 am

There is an old saying. Statistics lie and statisticians are liars.

The ONLY conclusion that I would be willing to make from the above data, is that Republican presidents are more likely to be in office during a period of recession. It is also worth noting that Republicans have been in office as President more years than Democrats. As much credit as the man in the White House would like to take for economic health, it seems to be somewhat independant of his actions.
Stop drop and roll will not save you in hell. --- seen on a church marque in rural Virginia
 
airworthy
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Mon Jun 09, 2003 3:47 am

Take that evidence away!

But really you have to hand it to Clinton that he did in fact lower unemployment ever year during his term.
 
Continental
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Mon Jun 09, 2003 3:57 am

I love that chart, just goes to show that when a republican is in power, the economy goes down the toilet. All the war, security, and all this other "hoo-hah" Bush has created has caused all this chaos. It's a joke, we need a democratic pres., and FAST.

co
 
N312RC
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Mon Jun 09, 2003 5:57 am

Since, obviously, the president is the sole person who determines unemployment rates.
N/A
 
delta-flyer
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:33 am

There is an old saying. Statistics lie and statisticians are liars.

Is the data in my chart wrong? How exactly am I lying? (Well, I did inadvertantly extend the republican rule through 2008 - I pasted an 8 year bar and forgot to shorten it)

It is the interpretation that may be faulty.

I don't want to necessarily imply that the Republicans (nor individual presidents) are solely responsible for unemployment; there are a lot of other factors involved. For one thing, unemployment is a lagging indicator, meaning that the economy deteriorates before unemployment does. By the same token, the economy will rebound before unemployment will improve. Increases in government spending will also reduce unemployment.

In any event, I thought the data looked interesting enough to share with you guys. The lesson here is, don't jump to conclusions; just because you see different data charted together, do not immediately assume that there is a causal relationship between them.

Do you know what I think? Both parties suck at controlling the economy. It's a good thing that it pretty well runs itself.

Pete
"In God we trust, everyone else bring data"
 
Continental
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Mon Jun 09, 2003 9:37 am

Since, obviously, the president is the sole person who determines unemployment rates.

No, but he plays a major role in doing so. Also when you have a rep. pres., you will also have many other major US officials that agree with the rep. pres. that are republicans themselves....

co
 
desertjets
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Mon Jun 09, 2003 9:43 am

The saying, told to me by my stats instructor of all people is meant to reinforce the point that mere data alone do not tell a story. If one were to draw a conclusion that high unemployment is caused by republican presidents, which you correctly did not, they would be using perfectly correct data to draw an incorrect conclusion.

Admittedly the chart is interesting looking, and it creates a lot of possible questions to look at as well.
Stop drop and roll will not save you in hell. --- seen on a church marque in rural Virginia
 
delta-flyer
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Mon Jun 09, 2003 11:18 am

Admittedly the chart is interesting looking, and it creates a lot of possible questions to look at as well.

That was precisely my point.  Smile

Pete
"In God we trust, everyone else bring data"
 
United Airline
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Mon Jun 09, 2003 1:46 pm

What about Canada and Australia???????

 
cfalk
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Mon Jun 09, 2003 10:37 pm

Remember guys that unemployment that is too low is bad for the economy, as it is inflationary. Stuctural unemployment is known as the unemployment level which is normal in a healthy economy, and varies from country to country. Structural unemployment in the U.S. is somewhere around 4.5% to 5.0% In some countries it is lower, and in others it is higher.

Continental, In case you did not notice, the economy started going into the toilet about a year before GWB came into office. And had certain laws which are now in effect been passed under Clinton instead of being passed off until 2001, it would be quite clear to you that the Clinto economic boom was largely a lot of smoke and mirrors, based of false financials. As a trained and experienced economist, I have a lot more confidence in today's economy than I had in the one of 4 or 5 years ago.

Charles
The only thing you should feel when shooting a terrorist: Recoil.
 
JetService
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/

Tue Jun 10, 2003 12:13 am

Continental, don't put the cart before the horse. It's a common trend that when America is in tough economic times and/or threat of war, they tend to vote Republican and during good economic times and/or relative peace, they tend to vote Democrat. Again, this is a trend.
"Shaddap you!"
 
Continental
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Tue Jun 10, 2003 12:28 am

Ok, but, you must admit that the pres. has indeed contributed. The war is costing tons, and the pres. must also spend some time on the economy. The homeland security plan developed by 9-1-1 has sent many businesses down, if not, gone, which makes the former employees for that company unemployed...

co
 
JetService
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/

Tue Jun 10, 2003 12:47 am

Continental, the test for Bush come voting time will be how well he handles the economy. Unlike you, most Americans (according to just about every poll I've read on this) don't hold him responsible for the economy (nor do they hold Clinton responsible for that matter (remember it began to fall at the end of Clinton's term). Most feel its the inevitable hangover from the dot.com party that was aggrevated further by 9/11. Had Gore won, the economy would still be the way it is and 9/11 still would've happened. The difference is the solution to the problem, not the cause. Its safe to say Gore wouldn't have used tax-cuts as extensively to address the problem as Bush has, but I'm sure he would've tried something. So if you just say 'bad economy-Bush fault', go ahead, but in reality it was going to happen, we all knew it, and we can all now sit back and watch how its handled & take that to the polls.
"Shaddap you!"
 
Continental
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Tue Jun 10, 2003 1:11 am

I've never said that it was entirely Bush's fault, I said that he had contributed to it. Now, we can't say that 9-1-1 would've happened if Gore were in, there is no way to prove that it would have happened if so... Yes, now we must sit back and see what's going to happen, it's a shame MN is having it's highest employment rates in decades......

co
 
JetService
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/

Tue Jun 10, 2003 2:16 am

Continental, how do you think Gore winning may have prevented 9/11? Sounds like that was planned for a long time into the Clinton presidency, so whomever was commander-in-chief appears to be irrelevent.
"Shaddap you!"
 
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sebolino
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Tue Jun 10, 2003 4:56 am

I heard that the very low unemployement rate in the US hides many "poor workers" who have jobs that are so badly paid that they need another activity.
Can any American confirm or deny that ?
 
airworthy
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Tue Jun 10, 2003 5:25 am

Any worker in the United States is guarenteed a "minimum wage".
 
NDSchu777
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Tue Jun 10, 2003 10:00 am

That chart's just another classic example of playing around with statistics to make them say what you want them to say. There are many different ways of presenting the exact same data.

First of all, in the chart the administration's start and end on the actual election year. In reality the president isn't elected until the very end of that year and isn't in office until the next year. And even then, the budget of the new administration does not take effect until the second year in office. Plus, the economic impact of fiscal policy doesn't take place over night. Sometimes they take years to implement. So it's very tough to draw the line as to where one administration's economic impact truly starts or ends.

Also, this does not take in account the monetary policy implemented by the Federal Reserve. Someone could look at which president appointed the chairmen of the Fed (arguably the most powerful economic power the president has, that my econ teacher strongly believed).

And lastly there are so many more economic statistics besides unemployment rate to evaluate the economic effects of a president, such growth of real GDP, inflation rates, interest rates, etc.

So even though the numbers can be the same, anyone, Republican or Democrat, can present them in such a way to imply what they want them to apply, not what's necessarily statistically valid.

--Nick
 
Continental
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Tue Jun 10, 2003 11:17 am

If Gore was elected, that doesn't mean that 9/11 would definetely happen.... There could have been other factors contributing to the cause that we are unaware of...

co
 
cfalk
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Tue Jun 10, 2003 4:04 pm

Continental,

Have you forgotten that Al Qaeda became an active entity during the Clinton Administration, and started its attacks against the U.S. during the same administration? Remember the USS Cole attack? The African Embassy Bombings? The bombings in Saudi Arabia etc. etc.? Also, the investigation into 9/11 showed that the 9/11 attack was in the planning stages for some 2 years, and the hijackers were training for their mission well before Bush even came to office. No matter who had won the 2000 elections, 9/11 would have happened. Al Qaeda don't just hate Republicans, they hate all Americans.

Charles
The only thing you should feel when shooting a terrorist: Recoil.
 
FDXmech
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Tue Jun 10, 2003 5:01 pm

Continental,
Actually, the Democratic party has been in power during war years moreso than the Republicans.

The bulk of the 1960's when we were in Vietnam were years that the Dems (mainly Lyndon Johnson) were in office. The economy was in full gear during this time with the war on, though, the the stagnant 1970's economy was probably the result of policies of the 1960's. The 1970's economy was described to as ,"stagflation", a stagnant economy rife with inflation.

In the early 1950's the Korean War started with President Harry Truman (Democrat) in office.

In the 1040's, World War 2 had Franklin Roosevelt (Democrat) in office.

Can I characterize or surmise the Democrats were *war mongers* because the bulk of American involvement in wars were during Democratic administrations? Of course not!! Can I accuse FDR of intentionally provoking WW2 (Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor) to break the back of the depression? Absolutedly not.
These Presidents (especially Roosevelt & Truman) were simply dealing with the global situation as required.

Eisenhower presided over the bulk of the 1950s, the economy was strong and relatively peaceful (not including the Cold War).

The early 1980s, we painfully shed the 1970's inflation cycle in part by raising interest rates. Mortgage rates approached 20%. You really can't imagine that now, especially if you're young and came of age in the 1990's with rates at 8% and going down to todays rates.

Continental, from your profile age group, you've only experienced economic and stock market good times. But good times and recessions come and go in cycles, this is nothing new, though it may be to you.

9/11 was being organized long before Bush was sworn in. It's now Bush's responsibility to deal with it, as was FDR was responsibility to deal with WW2 and Truman with Korea.
You're only as good as your last departure.
 
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sebolino
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Tue Jun 10, 2003 7:21 pm

Any worker in the United States is guarenteed a "minimum wage".


Hey !!!! That's nearly communist !  Big grin
 
United Airline
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Tue Jun 10, 2003 9:31 pm

Does anyone have the figures for CANADA?
 
Qb001
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Tue Jun 17, 2003 12:18 pm

United Airline,

You'll get lots of answers here http://canadianeconomy.gc.ca/english/economy/
Never let the facts get in the way of a good theory.
 
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clickhappy
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Tue Jun 17, 2003 1:50 pm

the bottom line, and how most people will vote, will come down to "Am I better off now than I was four years ago?"

For a large portion of the population, the answer will be no.

You can't blame Bush and his cabinet for the economy, but you can blame them for the fiscal policies, the nationalism, and the overall worlds negative view of the United States.

Most of our (The United States) investments come from foreign money. That money is drying up. With a falling dollar and strained relations with much of the world that isn't going to change any time soon. It means foreign products become more expensive to buy. The US doesn't have shit for a manufacturing base anymore, which means we buy most of what we use in our day-to-day lives.

The upside is that US products are now cheaper for the rest of the world too buy. Guess it sucks for us that they hate us.
 
delta-flyer
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RE: The Highest Unemployment Rate Ever In Canada/ USA

Wed Jun 18, 2003 11:09 am

Clickhappy ... trade cuts both ways. The US is the largest consumer of all the junk the world produces. As long as we buy, people will have US dollars to spend or invest in the US. We are going through the low point of the business cycle -- it's not permanent.

Pete
"In God we trust, everyone else bring data"

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