Matt D
Topic Author
Posts: 8907
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 1999 6:00 am

Ever Had A Prediction Come True?

Mon Jul 21, 2003 5:08 am

I'm in the process of searching the archives for a specific post I made a long time ago, to post in the General Forum.

I came across this rather intersting post from Feb '00 predicting the sortid state of affairs we have today. I was pretty close, although I-along with everyone else didn't forsee or imagine 9/11.

http://www.airliners.net/discussions/general_aviation/read.main/92994/6/
 
flyboy36y
Posts: 2897
Joined: Sun Mar 19, 2000 1:45 pm

RE: Ever Had A Prediction Come True?

Mon Jul 21, 2003 5:19 am

Okay... I predicted that AMR would never see bankrupcy and that ppl should buy AA stock.
 
KROC
Posts: 18919
Joined: Mon May 08, 2000 11:19 am

RE: Ever Had A Prediction Come True?

Mon Jul 21, 2003 10:40 am

I predicted this thread would suck, even before I opened it, and damn was I right on!  Big grin

1 star for old times sake!  Big grin
 
redngold
Posts: 6673
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2000 12:26 pm

RE: Ever Had A Prediction Come True?

Mon Jul 21, 2003 10:46 am

Well, it wasn't a prediction, more of an intuition...

I knew a high school classmate of mine had epilepsy before she ever had a seizure in school... Never heard anyone ever talk about it prior to that.

I also knew that another acquaintance of mine, in college, had epilepsy before anyone (including her) discussed it with me...

I seem to have an intuition about epilepsy in general. Perhaps because my own brain is pretty screwed up.


redngold
Up, up and away!
 
kimmykun
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Joined: Fri Dec 20, 2002 7:00 am

RE: Ever Had A Prediction Come True?

Mon Jul 21, 2003 10:56 am

I sometimes dream random events in the future. Like I've dreamt being in a bakery paying for a coke and a few days later it happened exactly as I had dreamed it. Same cashier, the same people around, even the same clothes... It's always weird when it happens. It's like a deja vu thing. Though it's more like a premonition than a prediction... Hmm, never mind then.
 
Matt D
Topic Author
Posts: 8907
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 1999 6:00 am

RE: Ever Had A Prediction Come True?

Mon Jul 21, 2003 11:14 am

KROC:

Maybe this would be a goo time to inaugurate a new award besides The Shaft and The Prize:

May I present:

The BOMB

As in a thread that "bombed".

 
CPH-R
Posts: 6059
Joined: Thu May 03, 2001 5:19 pm

RE: Ever Had A Prediction Come True?

Mon Jul 21, 2003 11:33 am

Rarely predicts anything - though I have experienced, a few times, where a situation I experienced in my dreams actually played out before me while awake. I've had the pleasure of finishing someones sentence a couple of times, since I could remember that they said in the dream :-o
 
Qb001
Posts: 1923
Joined: Fri Apr 28, 2000 12:42 am

RE: Ever Had A Prediction Come True?

Mon Jul 21, 2003 2:58 pm

I'm a card carrying member of a skeptic association ("Les Sceptiques du Québec"), and each year we organize a "prediction contest".

The goal is to demonstrate that when making predictions, there's always some that will become reality, and astrologers and other charlatans are just lucky, from time to time. For instance, 99.999999% of all astrologers or other charlatans did not predict 9/11. Here in Québec, one astrologer said she knew about it, but she didn't want to tell because she thought it would create panic. Sure...

The 0.000001% missing is to take in account an astrologer from Hong-Kong who made a very vague allusion to some possible problems in the American sky the day of 9/11. If we are being very generous and we say this guy was right, we can also say he was lucky.

So our little contest demonstrates that you are going to be right once in a while, no matter what you predict. Our stats show a success rate of around 20%. It has picked up a bit in recent years because people taking part in the contest tend to make more "serious" predictions. Whereas, in the past, people had fun making the silliest predictions (I, for one, once predicted a tsunami would hit Switzerland. See what I mean...). Last year, the success rate was 16%, and the #1 prize went to a guy who predicted a major crash in Iran with a margin of error of 2 days. He predicted the crash would take place Feb.14, and it unfortunately happened Feb.12 (unfortunately for the people who died, not for the prediction itself).

You can test this by yourself (that's what being skeptic is all about). Make a list of, say, 100 predictions. 100 "events" that you think will take place before Dec 2003. And see by yourself the results. If you made "reasonable" predictions, unlike mine about a tsunami in Switzerland, you'll probably be on the money 15%-20% of the time.

Here's a few prediction of mine, feel free to add your own:
  • UA will close one of its hub

  • Boeing will end the 757 production

  • At least one minister will resign from Blair's cabinet

  • The Yankees will win the World Series

  • The Cubs will win the World Series

  • OJ will not find the real murderer

  • There are going to be massive demonstration in the streets of Montréal this fall

  • There are going to be massive demonstration in the streets of Paris this fall, maybe some ATC strikes also

  • Americans will find no WMD in Iraq

  • Paul Martin is going to be Canada's next Prime Minister (easy one)



  • etc.
    Never let the facts get in the way of a good theory.
     
    AerLingus
    Posts: 2280
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    RE: Ever Had A Prediction Come True?

    Mon Jul 21, 2003 8:38 pm

    Back in Spring 2001, I was going on a school trip to Hawaii and as we were sitting at the gate waiting to board, I muttered to my friend that something with the flight didn't seem quite right and I couldn't figure out what. Just a strange feeling. Anyway, it was announced that the film projector had broken.

    About 7 months ago, with all of the intense flooding in Mexico, I had a wierd dream that I was in a small Pacific seaside town that was being pounded by a typhoon and floods. Then I woke up, turned on the TV and saw the floods in Mexico, and it looked just like my dream. Not so much a prediction, but according to someone I know, that's called "precognition." I've actually done wierd stuff like that a couple of times before. I'm chalking it up to being a series of coincidences, but I've had a hell of a lot of coincidenes.
    Get your patchouli stink outta my store!
     
    GoAround
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    RE: Ever Had A Prediction Come True?

    Mon Jul 21, 2003 8:45 pm

    @ AerLingus

    I've had this before, but saw it reported recently that scientists have discovered that what happens with this is that your brain will, as you see something happening, 'reprogram' history and you will believe you dreamed the particular event happening, when you actually never did.

    Very weird.... it happens to everyone, nothing triggers it, it just happens.

    GoAround
    GoAround
     
    tbar220
    Posts: 6706
    Joined: Wed Feb 02, 2000 12:08 pm

    RE: Ever Had A Prediction Come True?

    Tue Jul 22, 2003 1:13 am

    Well you know what they say, stuff like that is probably just a glitch in the Matrix  Big thumbs up
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