sleekjet
Posts: 2006
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2001 1:35 am

This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Tue Sep 09, 2003 11:29 am

Way out in the Atlantic, a monster is growing. Isabel is a solid Category 3 storm and the NHC thinks it could develop into a Cat 4 during the night or tomorrow. She still has hundreds and hundreds of miles of warm ocean water to feed on.

Current projections aren't worth much at this stage, but they tend to point Isabel toward Cuba. She is moving WNW currently, but a more westerly track is expected.

I monitor several hurricane sites and there is apparently growing concern at the National Hurricane Center about this storm...and this is unusual given how far away it is from land at this point.

II Cor. 4:17-18
 
ScarletHarlot
Posts: 4251
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 12:15 pm

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Wed Sep 10, 2003 8:03 am

One of my friends is going on a Caribbean cruise on Monday...

...or so he thinks...
But that was when I ruled the world
 
portcolumbus
Posts: 1575
Joined: Tue Nov 14, 2000 7:10 am

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:00 am

It's now a Cat4 with 135mph winds. I saw the predicted track for it, seems like it will continue westward through Sunday.


I doubt your friend will be having a cruise.
 
sleekjet
Posts: 2006
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2001 1:35 am

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:19 am

Here's the prognostication for the next five days:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200313_5day.html
II Cor. 4:17-18
 
Msh744
Posts: 423
Joined: Fri May 31, 2002 10:09 am

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:48 am

This site is the official thing, with all kinds of cool imagery.

http://nws.noaa.gov/

-Msh744
 
AA777-200
Posts: 305
Joined: Mon Jul 12, 1999 2:58 pm

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Wed Sep 10, 2003 2:10 pm

Hey keep me posted on this one! I leave for a cruise on Sunday from New Orleans going to Cozumel Grand Cayman and Montego Bay. I hope it doesnt get into our way!
Thanks
Brad
 
tbar220
Posts: 6706
Joined: Wed Feb 02, 2000 12:08 pm

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Wed Sep 10, 2003 3:46 pm

Hopefully it will do what Gabriel did and completely miss the eastern seaboard. Then again, Bermuda does NOT need another hurricane hitting its shores as they are still cleaning up from Gabriel, its worst storm in 50 years. Hurricanes can take very unpredictable paths, so we'll see what this one does.

As for Gabriel, we were studying it in my weather classes, and it was such a strong hurricane that while it has weakened, it will eventually become a gale sized storm that will probably affect England or even further. Now that is a strong storm!
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Ex NWA
Posts: 116
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RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Wed Sep 10, 2003 4:21 pm

Who is Gabriel??... I thought it was Fabian that hit Bermuda.

Isabel makes me very nervous. If it doesn't make the north turn when passing Puerto Rico it most likely will hit somewhere between Miami and Cape Hatteras. Most of my family lives in coastal NC which seems to be a hurricane magnet, so I'm keeping my fingers crossedshe turns out to sea.
 
tbar220
Posts: 6706
Joined: Wed Feb 02, 2000 12:08 pm

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Thu Sep 11, 2003 12:28 am

Ex NWA,

Oops, my mistake. Gabriel was a tropical depression that hit Florida. It was indeed Fabian that hit Bermuda. I stand corrected.
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aa61hvy
Posts: 13021
Joined: Fri Nov 05, 1999 9:21 am

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Thu Sep 11, 2003 12:32 am

If it came to the Gulf of Mexico, usually in DFW we'd get blasted by the aftermath, but I am in OH and thats the least of their concerns here.
Go big or go home
 
sleekjet
Posts: 2006
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2001 1:35 am

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Thu Sep 11, 2003 3:32 am

Here are some computer models. The one called "WDM" is totally weird. Has it hitting many of the largest cities in the U.S.

http://www.tropicwatch.com/newmod

II Cor. 4:17-18
 
redngold
Posts: 6673
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2000 12:26 pm

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Thu Sep 11, 2003 6:16 am

The 5:00 PM EDT (9/10/03) discussion for this hurricane says that the only good news about this hurricane is that it is an intense hurricane and intense hurricanes usually weaken.

Hmmm... anyone got bad news?
Up, up and away!
 
tbar220
Posts: 6706
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RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Thu Sep 11, 2003 10:39 am

I hate to say it Sleekjet, but that website does not look like an official NWS website. I'll look up an some official estimates of where the hurricane is forecast to travel. That wetdreammod is a real joke...
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tbar220
Posts: 6706
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RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Thu Sep 11, 2003 10:48 am

Here is information from the official website of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) of the National Weather Service (NWS). If you want to find this website, go to .

***

Public Advisory


000
WTNT33 KNHC 102025
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED SEP 10 2003

...DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ISABEL STRENGTHENS...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF INTENSE HURRICANE ISABEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.9 WEST OR ABOUT
685 MILES ...1100 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...WITH POSSIBLE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
AFTERWARDS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS...CREATING HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS...WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...21.2 N... 51.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 942 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

***

Forecast/Advisory


000
WTNT23 KNHC 102024
TCMAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132003
2100Z WED SEP 10 2003

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 51.9W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..275NE 225SE 225SW 275NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 51.9W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 51.4W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.3N 53.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.4N 55.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.5N 56.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.7N 58.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 23.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 23.5N 69.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 51.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART

***

Discussion


000
WTNT43 KNHC 102024
TCDAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2003

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ISABEL HAS STRENGTHENED THIS AFTERNOON
AS EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED TO -75C AND COLDER...WHILE THE EYE
HAS CLEARED OUT AND WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY. OBJECTIVE DVORAK
T-NUMBERS OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS AVERAGE OUT TO T6.5...OR 127 KT...
WITH A PEAK T-NUMBER OF 7.1...OR 143 KT...AT 1815Z. THE 3-HOUR ODT
AVERAGE IS T6.3...OR 122 KT. THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES EASILY
JUSTIFY INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 120 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT IS
QUITE POSSIBLE THAT ISABEL IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY INDICATES...BUT WE PREFER TO USE THE 3-HOUR ODT VALUES TO
SMOOTH OUT ANY INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS OR REASONINGS. ISABEL HAS
DEFINITELY MADE THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 12Z
GFS MODEL HAS RETURNED TO ITS OLD WAYS AND NOW MAKES A JOG BACK TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG 20N LATITUDE IN 36-48 HOURS. THIS APPEARS
TO BE DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF ISABEL BY THE MODEL...AND THE
GFS MAINTAINS A PATHETIC LOOKING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...
CERTAINLY NOTHING REMOTELY RESEMBLING A MAJOR HURRICANE...THROUGH
72 HOURS. THE RESULT IS THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST OF
ISABEL FORCES THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CANADIAN MODEL
AND THE UKMET... TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE...ALSO HAVE SIMILAR
LOOKING WEAK CIRCULATIONS...THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. ONLY THE
12Z NOGAPS MODEL INITIALIZES ISABEL AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE. SINCE THE NOGAPS MODEL IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
....WHICH IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO
THE NOGAPS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.

THE OUTFLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF ISABEL CONTINUES TO EXPAND WESTWARD
AS IS GETS DRAWN INTO THE LARGE MID-/UPPER-LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.
THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN...SO SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME. HOWEVER...THE ONLY GOOD
NEWS ABOUT INTENSE HURRICANES IS THAT THEY GENERALLY DO NOT REMAIN
INTENSE FOR VERY LONG...SO SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 21.2N 51.9W 120 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 21.3N 53.5W 125 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 21.4N 55.2W 120 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 21.5N 56.9W 120 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 21.7N 58.6W 120 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 22.0N 62.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 14/1800Z 23.0N 66.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 15/1800Z 23.5N 69.5W 115 KT

***

Probabilities


000
WTNT73 KNHC 102025
SPFAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED SEP 10 2003

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.9 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST AT / KSAT), USA - Texas">SAT SEP 13 2003

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

TFFR 163N 615W X X X 2 2 ST CROIX VI X X X 2 2
TAPA 171N 618W X X X 3 3 ST THOMAS VI X X X 3 3
TKPK 173N 627W X X X 3 3 SAN JUAN PR X X X 2 2
TNCM 181N 631W X X X 5 5

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI
C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI
D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM AT / KSAT), USA - Texas">SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM AT / KSAT), USA - Texas">SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART

***

Three Day Forecast



***

Five Day Forecast Track



***

Strike Probabilities



***

Wind Speed Probabilities



***

Hope this clarifies things



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tbar220
Posts: 6706
Joined: Wed Feb 02, 2000 12:08 pm

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Thu Sep 11, 2003 10:51 am

Here's the latest Infrared (IR) imagery of the hurricane. Since its nightime, there are no available visible satellite images. The brighter whites indicate higher cloudtops, which indicate more intense storms. Isabel has a very clearly defined form, and you can see the eye and the clearly defined eye wall.

IR.JPG>
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sleekjet
Posts: 2006
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2001 1:35 am

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Thu Sep 11, 2003 11:12 am

I would not want to be in southern Florida next Tuesday.
II Cor. 4:17-18
 
Tom in NO
Posts: 6725
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 1999 10:10 am

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Thu Sep 11, 2003 12:48 pm

I caught two weather reports on TV in New Orleans this evening: one (Fox-8)was thinking it would be taking a track similar to Andrew, tracking across south Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. The other (ABC-26) was thinking it start a curve towards the north paralleling just east of the Florida coastline. Both seem to think that next Tuesday will be a pivotal day so far as New Orleans goes.

Looks like the NOAA thinks it'll take a northward turn around the Bahamas.

Of course, I'll go along with Sleekjet: I wouldn't want to be in south Florida. Then again, if it looks like it'll affect MSY, we'll open MSY's EOC, and I'll be stationed at the airport for the duration.

Time will tell.

Tom at MSY
"The criminal ineptitude makes you furious"-Bruce Springsteen, after seeing firsthand the damage from Hurricane Katrina
 
JBirdAV8r
Posts: 3454
Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2001 4:44 am

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Thu Sep 11, 2003 1:36 pm

Man, if the forecasts are close to accurate, those of us in JAX should be increasingly concerned...for the first time since Donna in 1960...wow.

It'll be interesting to see, that's for darn sure.
I got my head checked--by a jumbo jet
 
tbar220
Posts: 6706
Joined: Wed Feb 02, 2000 12:08 pm

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Thu Sep 11, 2003 3:23 pm

This storm is packing! As of 0300 Z (11 PM EST), the storm was packing winds of 145 mph with gusts topping out at 175 mph. Its moving West at a very slow 10 mph, and its pressure has dropped down to 938 mb, which is very low. If it continues to strengthen, we may see a category five hurricane. Lets hope not. Exciting for meteorologists, not for anybody else.
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LoneStarMike
Posts: 2802
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RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Thu Sep 11, 2003 3:25 pm

Oops, my mistake. Gabriel was a tropical depression that hit Florida. It was indeed Fabian that hit Bermuda. I stand corrected.

There was no storm this season named Gabriel. Tropical storm Grace hit South Texas over the Labor Day weekend. Henri was the one that hit Florida.

LoneStarMike

 
sleekjet
Posts: 2006
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2001 1:35 am

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Thu Sep 11, 2003 10:55 pm

II Cor. 4:17-18
 
jderden777
Posts: 1677
Joined: Fri Jan 21, 2000 9:56 am

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Fri Sep 12, 2003 1:24 am

should be some good times here in JAX if this thing hits us here...i wonder how close it will stay on that estimated track...

we'll see, i'd like to stick around to see it but i might end up making the trip back to virginia next week....

jonathan d.
"my soul is in the sky" - shakespeare
 
redngold
Posts: 6673
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2000 12:26 pm

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Fri Sep 12, 2003 6:10 am

As of 5:00 PM EDT (9/11/03) Isabel is now a Category 5 hurricane. Predictions are for the strength to decrease to Cat. 4 within 24 hours. Isabel may affect the northern coasts of the Greater Antilles, but is far enough away that there will only be strong surf.

The National Hurricane Center forecasters are still telling people that there's no way to know how Isabel might affect the Eastern U.S. She is still too far away and moving too slowly to predict a track much beyond 72 hours (which would have her north of the Dominican Republic.)


redngold
Up, up and away!
 
Olympic A-340
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RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Fri Sep 12, 2003 8:10 am

I'm in Port Saint Lucie, Florida...a large town right across Lake Okeechobee on the seaboard. We are all concerned, but judging from past storms and an area of low pressure just off of the Bahamas, most of us think it will strike more north of Palm Beach and here should it hit FL.
I'll keep ya'll (<<--gosh I've been in Florida for too long  Big grin ) posted
 
sleekjet
Posts: 2006
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2001 1:35 am

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Fri Sep 12, 2003 11:10 am

II Cor. 4:17-18
 
MxCtrlr
Posts: 2312
Joined: Tue Nov 13, 2001 11:22 am

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Fri Sep 12, 2003 2:03 pm

Well, as of 05Z/12-Sep, she is a Cat 5 storm and, even though the NHC keeps calling for it to take a WNW or NW track, it keeps plugging away at the W track. The middle of next week should prove interesting (along with its progress over this weekend)...Been through Donna, Cleo, Betsy and Andrew and don't really want to go through it any time soon again!

MxCtrlr  Smile/happy/getting dizzy
Frieght Dogs Anonymous - O.O.T.S.K.  Smokin cool
DAMN! This SUCKS! I just had to go to the next higher age bracket in my profile! :-(
 
Ex NWA
Posts: 116
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2000 4:12 pm

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Fri Sep 12, 2003 10:10 pm

My mom lives in Brunswick County,NC about 30 miles from NC/SC border and five miles from the Atlantic. I already made plans to go down and help her pack up on Monday and possibly get the hell out on Tuesday depending on where Isabel decides to go. Isabel is following a track similar to Fran which made a direct hit on her area back in '96. Fran was only a strong Category 2 and the damage was bad I can't imagine a 4 or 5. Images of the destruction caused by Andrew make me shudder.
 
JBirdAV8r
Posts: 3454
Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2001 4:44 am

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Fri Sep 12, 2003 11:49 pm

Ex NWA, I have relatives in Hampstead who also are getting a bit concerned...we'll probably be doing the same for them...they had quite a bit of Fran damage as well...
I got my head checked--by a jumbo jet
 
Adam T.
Posts: 796
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 7:01 am

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:22 am

Here in Charlotte, our news is keeping an eye on the storm as well. Even though we are roughly about 170-200 miles from the coast, Hurricane Hugo did reach our area at Hurricane strength when it slammed into Charleston in 1989. And when Fran hit, they predicted the same thing would happen, it didn't. Same with Floyd. My Great Grandmother lives between Myrtle Beach and Charelston, and one of my best friends is at Embry Riddle in Daytona Beach.
The NHC should have a more definite track in the next couple of days of what Isabel is going to do.

Adam

 
jcs17
Posts: 7376
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RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:22 am

If the current projections are correct, it should hit the east coast anywhere between Jacksonville and Norfolk. Luckily, it probably wont impact any major population centers, like South Florida.

[Edited 2003-09-12 18:24:11]
America's chickens are coming home to rooooost!
 
Tom in NO
Posts: 6725
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RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:37 am

Current NOAA info shows hurricane force winds extending for 70 miles around the storm. Perhaps it won't make landfall at a major population center, but if does make US landfall and maintains its strength, that area won't look too good afterwards.

The other thing about landfalling hurricanes is the probability of tornadoes and squally weather for quite a distance from the eye, especially on the east and south sides of the eye. You don't have to be directly in the hurricane's eye to feel the impact.

Tom at MSY
"The criminal ineptitude makes you furious"-Bruce Springsteen, after seeing firsthand the damage from Hurricane Katrina
 
sleekjet
Posts: 2006
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2001 1:35 am

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Sat Sep 13, 2003 3:42 am

Wind gusts are up to 195!
II Cor. 4:17-18
 
jderden777
Posts: 1677
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RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Sat Sep 13, 2003 4:42 am

i'm kinda hoping it stays on track to hit north florida, for the simple fact that i wouldn't mind a long weekend off from classes, and so i would head home the middle of next week!!!  Big thumbs up

i just hope i can get out before everyone panics and heads northwest...

jonathan d.
"my soul is in the sky" - shakespeare
 
tbar220
Posts: 6706
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RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Sat Sep 13, 2003 9:26 am

The worst thing about this storm will be the storm surge and flooding. The central pressure of the storm is so incredibly its at an estimated 924 mb/27.29 in. What's worse, is that the storm is moving incredibly slow at only about 9 mph. The slow moving will mean the heavy rainfall will pound the same areas, and combined with the storm surge, should Isabel hit land, I think we'll be seeing some bad flooding.

Nobody should mess with this storm, whoever lives in these areas need to start making serious evacuation plans.
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redngold
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RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Sun Sep 14, 2003 5:04 am

Downgraded to category 4 as of this morning, EDT (9/13/03.) 120 hour (5 day) projections in two models show the hurricane hitting North Carolina or the Chesapeake Bay area. Emphasis on projections and models. This hurricane is moving very slowly.

redngold
Up, up and away!
 
dragon-wings
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RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Sun Sep 14, 2003 1:16 pm

Even here on Long Island they are preparing for it. They say it could be close to here by Thursday or Friday. If it does come near here I hope it's not as strong as it is now.
Don't give up don't ever give up - Jim Valvano
 
Boeing Nut
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RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Sun Sep 14, 2003 1:47 pm

This gives me flash backs of one of, if not THE most powerful atlantic hurricane. Hurricane Allen in 1980. This badboy had sustained, sustained winds of 190 mph! The thing ws so huge that when it moved into the Gulf of Mexico, the satalite photos showed an image of Allen covering the entire gulf. Not much of the water could be seen from space.
I'm not a real aeronautical engineer, I just play one on Airliners.net.
 
Alpha 1
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RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Sun Sep 14, 2003 1:51 pm

This thing REALLY could make for a shitty week for airline operations.  Sad
 
ScarletHarlot
Posts: 4251
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RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Mon Sep 15, 2003 2:09 am

My friend left on his cruise yesterday (I stand corrected from my earlier post) and it looks like his cruise will be fine, although his first stop today at an island off of Haiti might not happen.
But that was when I ruled the world
 
dc-10 levo
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RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Mon Sep 15, 2003 2:21 am



Moving WNW 12mph.

The airlines are gonna be hit hard this coming week.

DC-10
 
jhooper
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RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Mon Sep 15, 2003 3:30 am

http://www.cnn.com/2003/WEATHER/09/14/hurricane.isabel/index.html

If you live anywhere on the U.S. east coast, now would be a good time to think about your evacuation plan and possibly put it into action if it looks like it's headed your way. This is one nasty storm, and unfortunately it's going to probably kill lots of people because they don't get out while they still have a chance! What was the last Category 5 storm to hit the U.S.? It's been a long time, I think. Hurricanes Hugo and Andrew were only Category 4 storms. Andrew alone costs 25 billion dollars in damage. Andrew also killed 40 people and left 250,000 homeless. Beware!
Last year 1,944 New Yorkers saw something and said something.
 
Adam T.
Posts: 796
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 7:01 am

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Mon Sep 15, 2003 4:18 am

On the news they keep saying that Andrew was a Category 5 storm. I seem to remember reading articles in 1999 stating that they had new statistics that proved Andrew was indeed a Category 5 Hurricane instead of a Category 4 storm as everyone thought. Other than Andrew, the other recent Category 5 storm to hit the U.S. was Camile in 1969. And Hugo was a Category 4 when it slammed into South Carolina in 1989.

Right now the projections are showing it making landfall around Cape Hatteras, NC and going along the coast through Norfolk and up through Chesapeake Bay. The track has it going right between Washington, DC and Baltimore. The National Hurricane Center keeps emphasizing that the 5 day forecasts are just an estimate, and it could easily change.
We'll see what Isabel does.
 
727LOVER
Posts: 6655
Joined: Tue Oct 09, 2001 12:22 am

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Mon Sep 15, 2003 1:18 pm

Labor Day 1935 hurricane hit the Florida keys as a Cat 5.

Seeing that weather channel map reminds me of a song:

"Woooo ooooo here she comes, watch out boy, she'll eat you up, wooooaaa here she comes, she's a maneater....."
Love Trumps Hate
 
Ex NWA
Posts: 116
Joined: Sat Apr 01, 2000 4:12 pm

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Mon Sep 15, 2003 1:46 pm

On earlier posts I was concerned about my mother on the NC coast, but I'm on the MD Eastern Shore right now (near Cambridge, MD) and it's starting to look like this things heading right towards me!! I'm supposed to fly back to ABQ on Saturday 9/20 but I don't know if that's going to happen.
 
gocaps16
Posts: 4138
Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2000 9:14 am

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Tue Sep 16, 2003 1:06 am

Well, I live in Virginia Beach, VA and we're starting our Hurricane Prep checklist since Friday. Probably tomorrow we will be given orders from our Commanding Officer that everything will be boarded up, sandbagged, all aircrafts will be secured and stowed in the hanger until she passes by. I haven't heard about evacuation plans yet, but people along Oceanfront is required to leave. I'm sure alot of people will leave also. Isabel is expected to hit VA Beach Thursday morning. We shall see....

And you tell her that we'll be ready....


Kevin
 
dc-10 levo
Posts: 3376
Joined: Mon Nov 19, 2001 3:22 am

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Tue Sep 16, 2003 1:18 am

Wow, it's getting close now. I'd be really scared if I were there.

Look:

Winds 140mph



Good luck guys!

DC-10
 
Illini_152
Posts: 959
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2001 6:00 am

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Tue Sep 16, 2003 3:21 am

Looking at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ has a little good news. It looks like the storm is weakening, and will continue to lose energy in the cooler waters.

000
WTNT43 KNHC 151502
TCDAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT ON / NZMC), New Zealand">MON SEP 15 2003

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE CONTINUES
TO BREAK DOWN...WITH A LESS WELL-DEFINED EYE AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.
EYEWALL CONVECTION HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC AND FRAGMENTED...AND THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS NOW MORE BANDED THAN IT WAS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 120 KT
AND ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN THE HURRICANE AT
18Z.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/7...SLOWER THAN BEFORE. WITH THE
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE OFF THE CAROLINAS MOVING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST...THE STEERING CURRENTS SURROUNDING ISABEL ARE BEGINNING
TO WEAKEN AS SOME RIDGING TEMPORARILY BUILDS AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN NORTHWEST...AHEAD
OF...THE HURRICANE. THIS SHOULD RESULT AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN A SLOW MOTION TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BY 48 HOURS OR SO...AN
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL HELP ACCELERATE ISABEL
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
ANCHORED NEAR 35N AND 60 W. MODEL GUIDANCE IS AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL...
UKMET...NOGAPS...GFS MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME RESTRICTION OF THE OUTFLOW AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...THE CURRENT WEAKENING MAY BE MORE A RESULT OF
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL THERMODYNAMICS. THERE ARE WESTERLIES
TO THE NORTH OF ISABEL...BUT THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WARM WATER
UNDER THE HURRICANE UNTIL COOLER SHELF WATERS ARE ENCOUNTERED RIGHT
ALONG THE COASTLINE. ONE KEY TO THE ULTIMATE LANDFALL INTENSITY
WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT COULD ENHANCE
THE OUTFLOW AND REDUCE THE SHEAR PRIOR TO LANDFALL IF IT DIGS AS
SHARPLY AS FORECAST BY THE GFS. WITH THIS AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN MIND...ISABEL COULD
STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 25.2N 69.4W 120 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 25.8N 70.3W 115 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 27.0N 71.2W 115 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 28.2N 72.0W 115 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 30.0N 73.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 34.5N 75.5W 110 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 40.0N 78.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 20/1200Z 49.5N 80.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL



also probiblities are looking good for my friends on the Jersey Shore (I am SO glad I left that area last week!)

HURRICANE ISABEL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST ON / NZMC), New Zealand">MON SEP 15 2003

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST THU SEP 18 2003

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

27.0N 71.2W 52 X X X 52 WILMINGTON NC X X 1 12 13
28.2N 72.0W 29 4 1 X 34 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 1 14 15
30.0N 73.0W X 17 6 1 24 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 1 14 15
BERMUDA X X X 2 2 NORFOLK VA X X X 13 13
SAVANNAH GA X X X 4 4 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 10 10
CHARLESTON SC X X X 7 7 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 6 6
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 11 11 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 3 3

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE
C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED
D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


Happy contrails - I support B747Skipper and Jetguy
 
jhooper
Posts: 5560
Joined: Thu Dec 13, 2001 8:27 pm

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Tue Sep 16, 2003 3:22 am

BTW, the last Cat. 5 hurricane killed 9,000 people.
Last year 1,944 New Yorkers saw something and said something.
 
dc-10 levo
Posts: 3376
Joined: Mon Nov 19, 2001 3:22 am

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Wed Sep 17, 2003 12:34 am

According to FOX and Sky News, it has been down-graded to category 2.

DC-10
 
gocaps16
Posts: 4138
Joined: Sat Jan 29, 2000 9:14 am

RE: This Hurricane Isabel Bears Watching...

Wed Sep 17, 2003 6:34 am

They were talking about that Isabel could regain her strength and could possibly upgrade from a CAT II to a CAT III. Hopefully it will not.

Kevin

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