Posts: 2310
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 12:54 am

Taiwan; Why Not Wait Until 2008?

Thu Dec 04, 2003 7:33 am

As many of you know, Taiwanese leaders have been discussing a referendum on formally declaring the island's independence from the PRC. China has stated that this would be a declaration of war.

While reading this article http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/03/international/asia/03CND-CHIN.html?ex=1071118800&en=a20c1843643db8e9&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLE the following occurred to me.

Would it not be smarter for Taiwan to wait until just before the 2008 summer games to declare its independence? With the world focus on Beijing for the events, and the fact that China would probably have its hand full dealing with the colossal issues that go with hosting an modern Olympics, wouldn't China's responses have to be muted to some extent? Also there is a traditional call for a Olympic truce that is issued during the games, possibly allowing the shock of the declaration to settle before action was taken.

I'd be interested in anyone's thoughts.

Posts: 16852
Joined: Thu Feb 01, 2001 8:04 am

RE: Taiwan; Why Not Wait Until 2008?

Thu Dec 04, 2003 10:29 am

"the military officials also said that China would prevent Taiwan from formally declaring independence even if that meant pushing the mainland economy into a recession or destroying its plans to be host to the 2008 Olympics.

General Peng listed the Olympics, loss of foreign investment, deterioration in foreign relations, economic slowdown or recession and "necessary" casualties by the army as costs China would willingly bear to reunify the mainland

What, pray tell, benefit(s) would "reunifying the mainland" bring that's worthy of those costs? Pride is one... why am I coming up short on others?

[Edited 2003-12-04 02:30:41]
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