Kerry is NOT in the lead sorry to break your heart.
He is still trailing as always.
Actually, in some polls, Kerry is slightly ahead, and in others, Bush is slightly ahead, both usually around 44 to 47 percent, it seems. So, to say "as always" is a bit of mis-statement.
Bush is in trouble, no doubt, but he still has to be the slight favorite. Not the prohibitive favorite he was last year, but the incumbency in the presidency is a powerful advantage, no matter who wields it.
Kerry, meanwhile, will not gain nor lose a lot between now and the convention. It's just too early, and most Americans don't pay that close attention till after the Major League All Star Break
He can let Bush keep taking body blows from events, without commenting a whole lot. Why shoud he? Events are hurting Bush more than the Democrats right now.
Unless Iraq improves dramtically this summer-and my choice for President notwithstanding, I hope to hell it does, simply as an American-Bush will not win. Consumer prices are rising, and the Fed is going to increase interestes rates. This economy isn't a juggernaut yet, like the one in the 90's, and it's still not on sold gorund, so the economy can still hurt Bush, too.
But again, it's too far off for any conclusions, but things are starting to take shape.