QIguy24
Topic Author
Posts: 2744
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2004 1:13 am

Official US 2004 Election Election Thread!

Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:00 pm

Well,
there are so many threads about Bush and Kerry on these boards now. Why don't just collect them all in this one thread instead of 400 different? Big grin

Does anyone know what the polls say by the way? I've heard on the radio this morning that Bush would be crushed if the election was today. Is that true?
 
NWA742
Posts: 4505
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RE: Official US 2004 Election Election Thread!

Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:05 pm

I've heard on the radio this morning that Bush would be crushed if the election was today. Is that true?

No, the race is very close.



-NWA742
Some people are like slinkies - not good for anything, but they bring a smile to your face when pushed down the stairs
 
QIguy24
Topic Author
Posts: 2744
Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2004 1:13 am

RE: Official US 2004 Election Election Thread!

Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:16 pm

Iv'e heard they said that Kerry actually is ahead in Florida. I didn't think that was possible. I thougth Florida is ts a republican state.
 
nwcoflyer
Posts: 677
Joined: Thu Jun 19, 2003 7:55 am

RE: Official US 2004 Election Election Thread!

Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:21 pm

Kerry is slightly ahead in Florida, however, I don't believe what the polls say. They are not even that effective until around October. Wait until the debates, to see what happens in Iraq and other important things. Americans are quick to change their minds. 1 Week in politics can easily change an entire election.

The New American is arriving.
 
NDSchu777
Posts: 389
Joined: Sat Oct 06, 2001 3:29 am

RE: Official US 2004 Election Election Thread!

Tue Aug 10, 2004 2:36 pm

QIguy24,

Florida isn't dominated by any one party. Just as the 2000 election proved, the state is very split down the middle and just like it was 4 years ago, it will be one of the states deciding the election. Not only is the state practically split 50-50, it also is the 4th most populous state in the country and has a lot of electoral votes as to why Kerry and Bush are focusing a lot of their campaigning there. Texas is a very Republican-dominated state, almost as much as Massachusetts is for the Democrats. But Florida could very easily go either way.

Nick
 
N670UW
Posts: 1441
Joined: Mon Jul 21, 2003 9:55 am

RE: Official US 2004 Election Election Thread!

Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:39 am

Here's a few state-by-state polls:

http://www.electoral-vote.com

Kerry is slightly ahead in Florida.



670
 
ly7e7
Posts: 2222
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2004 3:15 am

RE: Official US 2004 Election Election Thread!

Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:36 am

Hey, do you think that an "Official Danish elections thread" would be popular here?

Disclaimer: This comes on a humorous note

 Smile




2 things are endless: ignorance and space
 
Lucky727
Posts: 559
Joined: Mon Sep 29, 2003 10:27 pm

RE: Official US 2004 Election Election Thread!

Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:50 am

Umm...I see this thread becoming "the Mother of all Flame Wars" once you get a few of the more animated Reps & Dems going - duck!!!
··· [·] oooooooo [·] oooo oo ooooo [·] ooooooooooooooooooo [·]
 
Usairwys757
Posts: 2609
Joined: Tue Jul 15, 2003 9:51 am

RE: Official US 2004 Election Election Thread!

Fri Aug 13, 2004 10:00 am

Man, Bush must have those Midwestern states hypnotized or something. Seems like all of them sway Bush's way. But this is going to be a very close race, with Florida being very important again.
Inactive.....
 
rjpieces
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RE: Official US 2004 Election Election Thread!

Fri Aug 13, 2004 10:10 am

Especially in Florida, a handful of swing voters could change who wins the state. There really is no way to predict who will win until something big happens--Debates, Iraq, Osama captured, who knows.

Bush has been catering to the Cuban and Jewish vote in Florida--These coulld make or break the election in such close states.

If Bush team were to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, I predict he'd get a few percentage bump among Jewish voters....This could do it. Not too sure what he could do to get whatever Cuban vote he doesn't have already.
"Millions long for immortality who do not know what to do with themselves on a rainy Sunday afternoon"
 
b757300
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Joined: Fri Dec 15, 2000 10:27 pm

RE: Official US 2004 Election Election Thread!

Fri Aug 13, 2004 10:18 am

I've heard on the radio this morning that Bush would be crushed if the election was today. Is that true?

Depends on which poll you decide to listen too. Gallup has the President ahead. The LA Slimes, Newsweak, and See-BS News have Kerry ahead. However, you look at the internals of those three polls, all over sampled Democrats by 10%-15%. Gallup's last poll had something like .7% more Republicans but that is insignificant regardless of party.

As for the two FlorDUH polls showing Kerry ahead, the one by ARG over sampled Democrats by 8% (as they always seem too) and the Quinnipiac University Poll will not show the respondent breakdown by number of Democrats, Republicans, and Independent/Other.

The pollster with the best track record with state polls is Mason-Dixon while Gallup usually does the best nationally.

Polls to ignore are any done by Democrat or Republican polling firms, ARG, Zogby, Rasmussen, LA-Times, See-BS News, and Newsweek. Democrat and Republican polls for obvious reasons, ARG usually slants to Democrats, Zogby now does many of his poll online which makes them highly suspect regardless of results, Rasmussen has a very poor track record, and LA-Time, See-BS News, and Newsweak also have been producing polls that have a large bias toward Democrats.
"There is no victory at bargain basement prices."
 
N670UW
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Joined: Mon Jul 21, 2003 9:55 am

RE: Official US 2004 Election Election Thread!

Fri Aug 13, 2004 12:08 pm

Man, Bush must have those Midwestern states hypnotized or something.

The Plains states tend to be very conservative, as does the Deep South. However, in the case of North Dakota, Nebraska, and Wyoming, no polls have been taken yet.



670

[Edited 2004-08-13 05:09:02]
 
Alpha 1
Posts: 12343
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2001 12:12 am

RE: Official US 2004 Election Election Thread!

Fri Aug 13, 2004 12:09 pm

Too early for this thread. Start it about 2 or 3 weeks after the RNC, when the souffle has settled form the conventions ,and you'll start getting a feel for what's really up.

I think, in my gut, though, that this election, if possible, could be closer than the last one. A real possibility that the "winner" will lose the popular vote, again, be it Kerry or Bush.
 
Northwest717
Posts: 612
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RE: Official US 2004 Election Election Thread!

Fri Aug 13, 2004 12:18 pm

N607UW,

I'd like to disagree on the statement of Plains states being very conservative. Here in Madison it is more than liberal. This cities name should be changed to Liberal City, LOL. To tell the truth I have no problem with it. I like liberal people. They tend to be more peaceful and more freethinking.

On the topic of Presidents, well I think BUsh is a good person and all, but I think he stinks as a president. I don't think Kerry is much better though. I am so glad I can't vote yet. I wouldn't know who to go for, "Mr. Indecision" or "Mr. Next-Time-I-Invade-A-Country-I-Hope-They-Really-Have-MDWs" I personally liked Clark. Openminded, freethinking, and peaceful. The last thing this country needs is to invade every single country under the sun. If Bush stayed in office forever, by 2020 we would be invading Canada for crying out loud. Like I said, I think Mr. Bush is a terrific person, but I don't think he is fit to be president. I think Kerry is a brave and great person, but I don't think he has the stability to be president. I guess only time will tell.


-Tim  Smile/happy/getting dizzy


Ok, all you Bush fans, go ahead, tear me to shreds.
Dubai: Center of the 21st Century
 
prosa
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RE: Official US 2004 Election Election Thread!

Fri Aug 13, 2004 12:34 pm

Polls at this stage of the race mean very little. Bush is likely to get a bump from the Republican National Convention at the end of this month. Kerry will benefit if the national employment reports released in September and October were as weak as the most recent one. Developments in Iraq can help or hurt either candidate; it seems as if the pace of U.S. casaulties has slowed recently, which will help Bush. Another terrorist attack - which I consider highly unlikely - probably would help Bush, unless intelligence failures are blamed. In short, things can go either way for either candidate.
"Let me think about it" = the coward's way of saying "no"
 
Alpha 1
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RE: Official US 2004 Election Election Thread!

Fri Aug 13, 2004 12:47 pm

It's perverted to talk about how a terror attack could help, hurt someone, but I guess it's the reality of the times.

If the attack takes place within two weeks of the election, the American people-including myself (vote NOT included) will rally around the President, and he will get a bump up from it.

If it would happen, say, the first week of October, however, the bump will have time to settle, and, rightly or wrongly, people may start to say that "hey, Bush said we were safer....", and it could actually hurt him.

Either way, the election will be tight, I believe, and an attack COULD help determine the outcome of the election.
 
rjpieces
Posts: 6849
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RE: Official US 2004 Election Election Thread!

Fri Aug 13, 2004 1:11 pm

IMO, If an attack takes place any time between now and the election, Bush will most likely win......
"Millions long for immortality who do not know what to do with themselves on a rainy Sunday afternoon"
 
N670UW
Posts: 1441
Joined: Mon Jul 21, 2003 9:55 am

RE: Official US 2004 Election Election Thread!

Fri Aug 13, 2004 1:14 pm

I'd like to disagree on the statement of Plains states being very conservative.

I was talking more of the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, etc., not so much Wisconsin.

Sorry, I should have been more clear.  Smile



670

[Edited 2004-08-13 06:14:55]
 
Northwest717
Posts: 612
Joined: Mon May 03, 2004 8:47 am

RE: Official US 2004 Election Election Thread!

Fri Aug 13, 2004 1:38 pm

N670UW,

Not your fault, I'm just a little tired and I guess I interperated that to mean like the entire Midwest. Plains States are pretty much what you just said. Sorry!  Big thumbs up

-Tim  Smile/happy/getting dizzy
Dubai: Center of the 21st Century
 
luisca
Posts: 1530
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RE: Official US 2004 Election Election Thread!

Fri Aug 13, 2004 3:11 pm

To answer someones question above, Kerry is winnig the cuban vote for Bush, He has a long history of opposing the Embargo on Cuba. Me and my whole family feel in Florida (miami at least) that Bush will win, but I am a little concerned about some 10K portoricans that moved to the orlando area a few years ago, they tend to vote Democratic.
If it ain't Boeing (or Embraer ;-)) I ain't Going!
 
AvObserver
Posts: 2391
Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2002 7:40 am

RE: Official US 2004 Election Election Thread!

Fri Aug 13, 2004 4:11 pm

"I think, in my gut, though, that this election, if possible, could be closer than the last one. A real possibility that the "winner" will lose the popular vote, again, be it Kerry or Bush."

Amen to this, Alpha1 and we'd again have Mr. Nader to thank though, as before with Gore, I'd think he'd hurt Kerry most. As to the possibility of another terror attack, I'm not sure who it would help most, there are a lot of things to consider, not the least of which would be a declaration from bin Laden stating that the new attack was a direct response to U.S. actions in Iraq. If that were the motivation, I'm not sure a new attack would help Bush. Also on that subject, I'd like to go out on a limb and postulate that the Republican National Convention, much more than the Democratic one, seems to me likely to be a prime target for a 9/11 followup attack. Being in NYC, which we've heard OBL wants to hit again and that fact that it's (in OBL's viewpoint) the hated Bush's official coronation to run again. I think if I were bin Laden, I'd make this convention a priority target, despite the security. Perhaps I should've made this a separate thread, well, I don't mind if someone else does. I know I don't want to be anywhere near NYC while it's going on. Anyone else very worried about this?

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