I've heard on the radio this morning that Bush would be crushed if the election was today. Is that true?
Depends on which poll you decide to listen too. Gallup has the President ahead. The LA
Slimes, Newsweak, and See-BS News have Kerry ahead. However, you look at the internals of those three polls, all over sampled Democrats by 10%-15%. Gallup's last poll had something like .7% more Republicans but that is insignificant regardless of party.
As for the two FlorDUH polls showing Kerry ahead, the one by ARG over sampled Democrats by 8% (as they always seem too) and the Quinnipiac University Poll will not show the respondent breakdown by number of Democrats, Republicans, and Independent/Other.
The pollster with the best track record with state polls is Mason-Dixon while Gallup usually
does the best nationally.
Polls to ignore are any done by Democrat or Republican polling firms, ARG, Zogby, Rasmussen, LA
-Times, See-BS News, and Newsweek. Democrat and Republican polls for obvious reasons, ARG usually slants to Democrats, Zogby now does many of his poll online which makes them highly suspect regardless of results, Rasmussen has a very poor track record, and LA
-Time, See-BS News, and Newsweak also have been producing polls that have a large bias toward Democrats.