planespotterx
Posts: 1259
Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2001 1:34 am

Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:40 pm

Just been checking out the latest discussion on the NHC and on a few weather forums I visit, and talk is that Frances has a possibility of hitting Florida.
2 Models (GFS and UKMO) have shown the Hurricane making landfall inbetween the Miami and the Daytona Beach area (although I have to stress that these are estimated landfall areas, and the fact that the Hurricane is expected to hit around Friday means that anything can happen until then, and that much of the time the tracks can be as much as 600 miles off-target.)
But still its a feature to keep an eye on, first hit will be Puerto Rica, up to Dominican Republic, to Cuba, and after that we've yet to see what happens.
At the minute Frances is a CAT3, but its possible it may get stronger to CAT4/5 by the end of the weekend.
Another feature to watch for is TD7, near the Carolinas, its expected to take a similar track as Alex, but wont be as strong, winds so far are 55mph sustained, and at 4pm UK time the next advisory will be issued (it may become a TS as the TD is in a "stalled" position right now, and is expected to shift NW by the end of the day.

[Edited 2004-08-28 15:50:03]
Its not the fall that kills u, its the sudden stop at the end..
 
electraBob
Posts: 918
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2003 3:11 am

RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:57 pm

I've been the watching The Weather Channel here ....Frances is a very well organized storm...could become a Cat 4 before it hits any land areas. Looks like the Southern Bahama Islands could be in big trouble. Labor Day weekend could be very interesting in Southeast Florida....however, it could possibly go south of the Florida peninsula and end up in the Gulf....what it does then, it is too early to tell.

Looks like there is another large wave coming off the coast of Africa...we are now in the peak of peak hurricane season.
Having a smoking section in a restaurant is like having a peeing section in a swimming pool.....
 
USairways16BWI
Posts: 921
Joined: Tue May 11, 2004 4:58 am

RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Sat Aug 28, 2004 11:34 pm

i hope it dosnt hit Boca Raton, FL. thats where my grandparents live. i was down there when hurricane charlie devastated southwest Florida. it was really bad there. but there was no problems on the atlantic coast, just a little cloudy.
 
DLX737200
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Joined: Tue May 29, 2001 6:42 am

RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Sat Aug 28, 2004 11:54 pm

God I hope this doesn't hit us here in Orlando. Charley did enough already. There are STILL people without power down here. Luckily, our street NEVER lost power but we were a rare case. If a 4/5 hits us, we're in for some trouble.
 
planespotterx
Posts: 1259
Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2001 1:34 am

RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Sun Aug 29, 2004 1:13 am

BTW TD7 off the Carolinas coast had now become TS Gaston, as predicted..
Its not the fall that kills u, its the sudden stop at the end..
 
kfllspotter
Posts: 92
Joined: Sun Apr 25, 2004 10:22 am

RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Sun Aug 29, 2004 1:37 am

This will definitely be a storm all Floridians should keep a close eye on. All we can all do is pray it wont hit us. This storm by the time it makes landfall could be a strong Cat.4 shifting into a Cat.5 which would cause complete devastation.
 
Dazed767
Posts: 4968
Joined: Tue May 18, 1999 11:55 am

RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Sun Aug 29, 2004 8:13 am

I was without power from Charley for 5 days, and just got cable back today (15 days). Minimal damage (small leak in the roof of the house, 40 or so shingles missing, lots of tree branches every where). It really could have been worse here, although they were saying this area of Orange County got hit the worst. Hope this one turns......
 
skyhawk
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RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Sun Aug 29, 2004 10:56 am

Usairways16bwi-I really don't know where you got your information that the Atlantic Coast of Florida wasn't hurt during Charley's escapades. My son lives in Daytona Beach. He has told me that they were without power for quite a few days, the schools in Volusia County(Daytona Beach) were closed for a week, there was a couple of people killed there, and numerous homeless because of the storm. So where does your information come from? Glad to know though that your grandparents had no problems and hope that is the case this time too.
 
Delta767300ER
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Joined: Tue Dec 16, 2003 7:12 pm

RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Sun Aug 29, 2004 2:22 pm

Crap, I know for sure we cant go through another one! My area in Central Florida was hit pretty hard by Cat 3 winds. If it makes landfall at the coast as a Cat 5 in might drop 1 Cat to a 4, However Charley proved landfall didnt weaken the storm. This is very very bad news. Frances looks like Hurricane Andrew on the sattelite photo.

-Delta767300ER
 
planespotterx
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Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2001 1:34 am

RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Sun Aug 29, 2004 7:02 pm

Just an update on TS Gaston, the system is expected to strengthen during today, and that winds are currently at 70mph sustained (just another 5mph means it will be a CAT1 Hurricane), estimates give the landfall between Charleston and Georgetown at 1500Z (BST.)
Winds are expected to strengthen during today to around 90 mph, as ever with these systems the wind speeds and areas hit can often be slightly "off-target."
Gaston is currently moving NW at 7mph, and is expected to track north and then northeast up the Eastern seaboard past NYC where it will eventually depart around Newfoundland on Thursday.
Hurricane warnings are in-force around the South/North Carolina coasts.
Its not the fall that kills u, its the sudden stop at the end..
 
N6376M
Posts: 2310
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 12:54 am

RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Mon Aug 30, 2004 2:01 am

at 2PM on Friday the 13th the NHC had the eye of Charley coming within 15 miles of my town. The storm turned suddenly and we didn't even get a drop of rain. A forecast out 7 days has a confidence factor of about zero.

Now, having lived through Andrew in Miami, I'll tell you never to take a hurricane lightly but to be worrying about a storm seven days out borders on hysteria.
 
cancidas
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RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Mon Aug 30, 2004 3:02 am

"...cannot the kingdom of salvation take me home."
 
redngold
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RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Mon Aug 30, 2004 6:26 am

If Frances hits FL, it will just go towards boosting my theory... that the 1920s were not a fluke, and that the last 20 years have seen a boom in Florida without respect for its natural history.

Here's the essay I shared with my weather aficionados on Yahoo! Ohio Weather Group:

To one and all - this is my soapbox statement for the time being...

Florida should have known better.

Over the last couple of years, people have been talking about unusual
weather -- El Nino, exceptional dryness in the southwest, drought in
the western half of the grain belt, and recurrent hurricanes along the
East Coast.

Unusual? Not in my mind.

Whether or not you believe in global warming, we seem to be seeing an
increase in dangerous weather events here in the U.S. But how much of
it is our own fault? We have built in the desert on speculation that
the current rainfall amounts, irrigation and aqueducts will be enough
to sustain growth. But we forget that there's a reason why it is
called the "desert." We have built on floodplains and called recent
events "hundred year floods," forgetting that there's a reason why
they're called "floodplains." We have built on low-lying coastal areas
around the Everglades, forgetting that the Everglades were always a
swamp. Even here in Cleveland, we've built in areas that used to be
wetlands, and now people are up in arms because their basements have
flooded.

We have been blessed with "good" weather for so long that we forget
what "bad" really is. In my opinion, what we've seen is a swing back
towards the normal, which is becoming increasingly inconvenient as
we've taken advantage of abnormally calm and predictable scenarios.

Global warming? I don't know. We don't have enough records to really
determine the long-term cycles on this earth. What I would do, though,
is look at the history we do know - for example, that Florida was
regularly hit by hurricanes well before the buildup of coastal areas.
We forget about the 1920s hurricanes that killed hundreds of people in
Miami and around Lake Okeechobee. Other histories tell us about
cyclical droughts in the Midwest, and a southwestern U.S. that was
uninhabitable except in tiny enclaves nestled atop mesas or in canyons.

We've come to expect that weather will be predictable. What seems more
predictable to me is our own belief that we can tame nature for our own
use. A healthy respect would be more wise.

---

redngold
Up, up and away!
 
redngold
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RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:12 am

Up, up and away!
 
flymia
Posts: 6810
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RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:24 am

Skyhawk: He must have meant Southeast Florida. We only saw on thunderstorm around 3am in Friday the 13th. Thats it. And some 30MPH winds. Hope this thing does not hit Miami direct that for sure. Right now I really hope everyone in the Bahamas will be alright. This thing is going to be a Cat 5 for sure.
"It was just four of us on the flight deck, trying to do our job" (Captain Al Haynes)
 
Delta767300ER
Posts: 2436
Joined: Tue Dec 16, 2003 7:12 pm

Frances

Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:35 am

She was a Cat 4 yesterday with winds of 145 MPH but she's weakened down to 120 MPH right now. If we get hit by another Hurricane I am going to try to move back to Atlanta. I am sick of these damn things!

-Delta767300ER
 
redngold
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Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2000 12:26 pm

RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:32 am

Large hurricanes like Frances (which could cover the entire state of Connecticut right now) often undergo fluctuations in intensity and eyewall replacement cycles during which the eye seems to disappear. The lowered intensity to Cat. 3 doesn't mean she can't strengthen again!
Up, up and away!
 
tanyaluvs2fly
Posts: 342
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RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:03 am

I'm suppost to fly into TPA next monday... blah
Live, Laugh, Love!
 
tbar220
Posts: 6706
Joined: Wed Feb 02, 2000 12:08 pm

RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Wed Sep 01, 2004 1:22 am

An update on Frances, the storm is strengthening and is right now looking to be quite the storm. The track is pretty much staying the saame and is expected to make landfall sunday morning.





The wind speed probabilities chart shows the current forecast that it will make landfall as a Cat 4. Pretty rotten for the residents of FL, I feel bad for them especially after Charley.
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redngold
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RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Wed Sep 01, 2004 7:05 am

Anyone else see that Charley and Frances could score a nice big "X" across Florida?

redngold
Up, up and away!
 
Tom in NO
Posts: 6725
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 1999 10:10 am

RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Wed Sep 01, 2004 7:14 am

Yep, looks like Daytona Beach is targeted again. Though also, I've been noticing the last couple of days as I check the 5-day forecast track that it continues to move to the right, moving landfall further and further north along Florida's east coast.


Thoughts and prayers go out to wherever this nsaty storm ends up.

Tom at MSY
"The criminal ineptitude makes you furious"-Bruce Springsteen, after seeing firsthand the damage from Hurricane Katrina
 
N312RC
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Joined: Mon Aug 28, 2000 10:58 am

RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Wed Sep 01, 2004 8:27 am

This storm is really still too far out to sea to really tell.. I'm down here in Jacksonville and I think everybody is holding their breath... The next few days will indicate whether or not I evacuate here and move south to Sarasota for the weekend. Last I heard, on the current forecast track it was supposed to make landfall south of Jacksonville, in St. Augustine or near that area.

N/A
 
redngold
Posts: 6673
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RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Wed Sep 01, 2004 9:43 am

The hurricane is so huge that it's going to cover half of Florida before the eye even makes landfall. Let's hope she loses some power and size first. Pray for a Lili (the one that was Cat. 4 just off the coast of Louisiana and weakened to Cat. 2 just before landfall.)

redngold
Up, up and away!
 
flymia
Posts: 6810
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2001 6:33 am

RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Wed Sep 01, 2004 11:49 am

The storm really is not that big in area. The track is changing and the storm is moving faster. I will be sure to update you guys once here in Miami we get the 23:00 est advisory. Miami news is the first to get it even before the Weather Channel since the Hurricane center is in Miami.
"It was just four of us on the flight deck, trying to do our job" (Captain Al Haynes)
 
tbar220
Posts: 6706
Joined: Wed Feb 02, 2000 12:08 pm

RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Wed Sep 01, 2004 11:54 am

Actually, the faster the storm is moving the better. In terms of inland flooding due to heavy rains and storm surge, a faster moving storm is better. In terms of winds, a faster moving storm only means stronger winds (on the northern half of the storm).
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flymia
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RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Wed Sep 01, 2004 12:08 pm

The 23:00 advosory moves the project track more south towards the Metro area of Miami. Broward and Plam Beach in the Northern Counties. It is way to early to tell where it is going it all depends on the high pressure from the west Coast. It does not look like it is going to go North toward GA or SC right now. Winds still at Cat 4.
"It was just four of us on the flight deck, trying to do our job" (Captain Al Haynes)
 
767ALLTHEWAY
Posts: 636
Joined: Mon Nov 22, 1999 5:37 am

RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Wed Sep 01, 2004 12:11 pm

Here in Charleston, SC, the EOC is taking no chances, T.S. Gaston did quite a bit of damage and that was only a tropical storm. With two more days or so to change course it could come closer to South Carolina. All I know is that here at The Citadel we are turning in weapons tomorrow just in case an evacuation is ordered.
"Courage is not the absence of fear, but rather the judgement that something else is more important than fear"
 
noelg
Posts: 2313
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2002 11:39 pm

RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Wed Sep 01, 2004 7:20 pm

Oh joy - and me who's meant to be flying into MIA on Saturday!

We're keeping a close eye on this hurricane - thought we'd got off getting affected with Charley - after all you can't get two hurricanes in a month can you?  Sad

Noel.
 
electraBob
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RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Wed Sep 01, 2004 10:22 pm

Heard something quite interesting this morning on The Weather Channel....the Eastern coastline of Florida, from Melbourne Northward (of course, this includes the Kennedy Space Center area, Daytona Beach, St. Augustine and Jacksonville)...has never been hit by a hurricane higher than a Cat 2. Quite amazing when you look at that large area of shoreline.
Having a smoking section in a restaurant is like having a peeing section in a swimming pool.....
 
N312RC
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RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:19 am

If you look at all the computer models, three of them track upwards toward Jacksonville (Including the UKMET model which has it making landfall in Duval County). The fourth is whats throwing the projected path all out of whack.. Its way south. Only time will tell what happens. Thursday afternoon if its headed this way, im out of here.

Delta Connection Academy here at JU is flying the aircraft to Georgia apparently.. Theres already a rush on supplies... cant WAIT to see what happens.
N/A
 
Mriya
Posts: 128
Joined: Tue Apr 06, 2004 9:14 am

RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Thu Sep 02, 2004 4:01 am

Posting from here in Vero Beach, FL, I can tell you that we are collectively shitting ourselves. Current models take Frances on a dead-center course through our lovely town (or very close). FlightSafety International, the flight school at VRB / KVRB is evacuating their 200ish planes tomorrow morning. We're in an up-to-code condo, but we are in the zone that evacuates for even the most basic of cat 1 hurricanes, thankfully though we're not on the barrier islands. Best wishes to everyone in the path of Frances. Remember your pets as well. Many people left their pets behind for Charley, but please know this: If it's unsafe for you, it's even less safe for your pets.

Kinda get the feeling that Mother Nature wants Florida wiped off the face of the earth, ya know? :
Currently not active in aviation photography or this site. Thank you for your interest.
 
OB1504
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Joined: Tue Jul 27, 2004 5:10 am

RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Thu Sep 02, 2004 4:51 am

In my opinion Frances is sort of like a second Andrew. Predicted to hit by West Palm Beach but I think that he'll turn at the very last second just like Andrew. Even now, the maps are showing him inching closer and closer to Miami. I'm scared. Really scared.
 
tanyaluvs2fly
Posts: 342
Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2003 12:07 pm

RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:03 am

According to yahoo news, they are asking 300,000 people in the Palm Beach Area to be ready to evacuate by 2pm tomorrow...
Live, Laugh, Love!
 
redngold
Posts: 6673
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2000 12:26 pm

RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:08 am

Again, just as we think we've got our thumb on nature, nature reminds us it's been around quite a bit longer than us.

Good luck, everyone.

redngold
Up, up and away!
 
User avatar
EA CO AS
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RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:16 am


Here's more of the latest info:

Dangerous Hurricane Frances is swirling into the Turks and Caicos islands this afternoon on a relentless course toward the southeast U. S. Frances, a category 4 monster on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, is expected to smash through the southern and central Bahamas tomorrow and into the northern Bahamas tomorrow night. After that, the southeast coast of the U. S. will bob to the top of the target list, but as yet there is no consensus among guidance tools as to where (or when) Frances will thunder ashore. Thus, prudence would dictate residents all along the coast (and even some distance inland) from the Keys to Cape Hatteras make at least preliminary preparations for a strike from a major hurricane.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
tanyaluvs2fly
Posts: 342
Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2003 12:07 pm

RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Thu Sep 02, 2004 5:21 am

I am flying into TPA at 1pm on monday... I want to call sunday night to see how the status of flights are, do you think that they will have any idea if there will be cancellation or anything...

(out of all the flying i've done never had to worry about this before)
Live, Laugh, Love!
 
flymia
Posts: 6810
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2001 6:33 am

RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Thu Sep 02, 2004 8:06 am

It is not looking good. ALL or Florida needs to be alert! Here in the Tri County area Miami-Dade Broward and Palm Beach Schools are closed the next two days and Gov offices too I think. I will prepare my house Tommarrow Late afternoon it looks like.
Hope everyone in the are great neighbor of The Bahamas does okay.
"It was just four of us on the flight deck, trying to do our job" (Captain Al Haynes)
 
MHTMDW
Posts: 138
Joined: Fri Jul 09, 2004 10:17 am

RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Thu Sep 02, 2004 8:42 am

Here we go again. Why don't people who live in hurricane prone areas plan ahead for the inevitable storms. Why in heaven's name is there run on plywood, batteries, bottled water and generators whenever a storm is forecast? Shouldn't these items be on hand at any given time to prepare for an emergency? Cut the plywood wood to size and have it on a rack in the garage. Keep a CO2 cylinder on hand with a dry ice making nozzle. A generator and some portable floodlight. A chainsaw. Water purification supplies. Canned goods. (I just love how there's always a run on milk too... Keep some condensed milk on hand). Always keep half a tank of gas in the car during storm season. It's so simple really.
 
cumulonimbus
Posts: 508
Joined: Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:13 pm

RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Thu Sep 02, 2004 9:17 am


I am Leaving Baltimore and heading to Florida tomorrow. I witnessed Charley's Devastation firsthand but I do think Frances will be worse. I would not be surprised if she was a Cat 5 when she makes land fall. Also Frances may be slowing down as it moves into a favorable environment which compounds the problem even more. also slowing down can indicate a change of direction also so this will have to be watched. I can only hope for the best.

Mike
 
flymia
Posts: 6810
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2001 6:33 am

RE: Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...

Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:06 pm

Okay 23:00 advisory guys. Hurricane watches for Florida City to Daytona. Projected track might have to move even more west! Bad for the Metro area of MIA. Track might go a little more south than thaught. South Florida needs to be ready along with Central and SC. Hope everything will be okay in the Bahamas
"It was just four of us on the flight deck, trying to do our job" (Captain Al Haynes)

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