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Aloha717200
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Bush 'bounce' Dissipates

Wed Sep 08, 2004 6:43 am

http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/index.html


The overblown Bush bounce


The lights inside Madison Square Garden had barely been shut off late last week when Time and Newsweek magazines both unveiled new polls declaring that George W. Bush had blazed ahead to a double-digit lead in the presidential race. While some Kerry supporters were surely deflated by the news, others were skeptical, noting that it would be nearly impossible to meaningfully assess the effect of the Republican Convention before the holiday weekend. (We won't bother speculating whether Time and Newsweek were simply rushing to weigh in first on the expected Bush bounce, or whether their Bush-friendly numbers had anything to do with the "liberal" mainstream media that conservatives keep griping about.)

Over at Donkey Rising, Ruy Teixeira says today's new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll is vindication for those who were more prepared to buy a Labor Day vacation package to Florida than they were Friday's headline poll numbers.

Teixeira notes that today's is the first poll that truly measures Bush's bounce -- a modest two-point one, among registered and likely voters alike -- and that the minor gain actually doesn't look so rosy for Bush when put into historical perspective.

"Bush's 2-point bounce from his convention (which, remember, is defined as the change in a candidate's level of support, not in margin) is the worst ever received by an incumbent president, regardless of party, and the worst ever received by a Republican candidate, whether incumbent or not. In 2000, Bush received an 8-point bounce. And even his hapless father received a 5-point bounce in 1992."

The new survey does reflect some favorable results for the Bush campaign: For example, the typically gloomy-faced Vice President Cheney is now viewed "slightly more positively" than before the convention, rising four points to 48 percent of voters who think of him "favorably." But the Gallup poll also shows that the Democratic gathering in Boston was more effective in persuading Americans:

"Forty-one percent of Americans say what they saw or read of the Republican convention makes them more likely to support Bush, while 38% say less likely. Americans were slightly more enthusiastic about the Democratic convention, as 44% said it made them more likely to vote for Kerry, and 30% said less likely. That 41% figure for the Republican convention is actually the lowest Gallup has measured dating back to the 1984 Democratic convention."

Apparently, Americans didn't much care for the dark musings of Sen. Zell Miller, or the rest of the GOP attacks leveled at Kerry from the GOP stage in Manhattan.

"Half the public thought the Republicans 'spent too much time criticizing the Democrats' at their convention, while 39% thought the Republicans 'achieved the right balance between criticizing the Democrats and saying positive things about themselves.'

"Similarly, 52% of Americans say the Republican Party has attacked John Kerry unfairly, compared with 48% who said this before the Republican convention."

The last time a GOP get-together was rated as being more negative in tone than this one? Late August of 1992, according to Gallup, when 56 percent of surveyed voters were turned off by Republican rancor -- and the first incumbent President Bush was on his way to losing to Bill Clinton.

-- Mark Follman


Likewise, today, Rassmussen reports showed Bush and Kerry tied, while the American Research Group showed Kerry leading Bush by one point.
 
whitehatter
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RE: Bush 'bounce' Dissipates

Wed Sep 08, 2004 6:48 am

"Similarly, 52% of Americans say the Republican Party has attacked John Kerry unfairly, compared with 48% who said this before the Republican convention."

Probably the most telling point of the above post.

Dirty politics isn't pretty to watch, and those who practice it often forget that their sharp jabs often carry a recoil. It happened here in 1997. The electorate didn't like the Conservatives trying to shift their campaign on to personal attacks on Tony Blair.

The Swift Boat people have probably done a lot more harm than good to the Bush campaign.
Lead me not into temptation, I can find my own way there...
 
BN747
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RE: Bush 'bounce' Dissipates

Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:16 am

Bush 'bounce' Dissipates

It'll be completely wiped out by the end of the week.

The Iraq Death Toll and the airing last night of 'Uncovered' is bound to do irrevesible damage.


BN747
"Home of the Brave, made by the Slaves..Land of the Free, if you look like me.." T. Jefferson
 
b757300
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RE: Bush 'bounce' Dissipates

Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:38 am

If you're using Salon.com as a source, then you need to find some new ones. Salon is nothing but a left wing rag that is kept out of insolvency by millions of dollars dumped into it by a bunch of rich liberals.

Likewise, today, Rassmussen reports showed Bush and Kerry tied, while the American Research Group showed Kerry leading Bush by one point.

Rasmussen is an unreliable pollster who has been off in every election. He missed 2000 by 8 points and missed the 2002 elections as well. His poll goes back and forth within a 5 point range. As for ARG, they're so biased toward the Democrats they might as well be part of the Kerry campaign. They oversample Democrats by up to 15% in many of their polls.

[Edited 2004-09-08 00:42:38]
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MaverickM11
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RE: Bush 'bounce' Dissipates

Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:53 am

"Bush 'bounce' Dissipates
"

What did you expect a BOUNCE to do? Wouldn't be a bounce if it stayed up now would it....
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
gigneil
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RE: Bush 'bounce' Dissipates

Wed Sep 08, 2004 7:55 am

Rasmussen is an unreliable pollster who has been off in every election.

Yet, I believe you have used them as a source in the past.

N
 
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aloha73g
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RE: Bush 'bounce' Dissipates

Wed Sep 08, 2004 8:06 am

with all polls you HAVE to look at whether they are among registered voters or likely voters

republicans generally do much better with likely voters

the time and newsweek polls showed a 1 point bush lead with registered voters and an 11 point lead with likely voters. i think the CNN/Gallup poll showed that too

aloha!
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Blackbird1331
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RE: Bush 'bounce' Dissipates

Wed Sep 08, 2004 8:37 am

I think he should just bounce out of the White House.
Cameras shoot pictures. Guns shoot people. They have the guns.
 
aloges
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RE: Bush 'bounce' Dissipates

Wed Sep 08, 2004 8:43 am

"I think he should just bounce out of the White House."

Very, very, very well said.  Big thumbs up To any American who wants to do the rest of the world a favour, too: Vote Kerry/Edwards! Even if they screw up, they won't do as much damage as George Bush.
Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.
 
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EA CO AS
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RE: Bush 'bounce' Dissipates

Wed Sep 08, 2004 8:48 am

Interesting - even the Today show this morning was citing a new poll out showing a 7 point gap.

Nevertheless, it's even more interesting to note that Kerry received absolutely NO "bounce" whatsoever following the Democratic National Convention - and while these figures don't necessarily mean anything, if Bush's bounce looks bad, Kerry's total lack of one is an absolute disaster!

"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
aloges
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RE: Bush 'bounce' Dissipates

Wed Sep 08, 2004 9:02 am

"if Bush's bounce looks bad, Kerry's total lack of one is an absolute disaster!"

Which applies to almost all of Kerry's campaign up to this date... as it seems here in Europe. I thought this man wanted to unseat a US president, one would imagine he'd have got off of his butt by now.  Sad
Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.
 
solarix
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RE: Bush 'bounce' Dissipates

Wed Sep 08, 2004 9:39 am

Even if they screw up, they won't do as much damage as George Bush.

Why is that?
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aloges
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RE: Bush 'bounce' Dissipates

Wed Sep 08, 2004 9:48 am

Just look at the damage Bush has done:

He created unprecedented genuine hatred (not inflicted by governments like during the Cold War) against the US and, to a lesser extent, the Western World in general when declaring war on Iraq.

He alienated NATO and other allies with his "either with us or against us" rhetoric, a major fault in a time when a strong and united western alliance was needed to fight terrorism.

He has created a record budget deficit which will have to be paid off in the future - and if that harms the US economy, it will harm each and every economy on this planet.
Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.
 
777236ER
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RE: Bush 'bounce' Dissipates

Wed Sep 08, 2004 9:52 am

But look at what Kerry would do:

Nothing!

His policies are almost identical, that is if he'd actually bothered to tell us his policies. The only real thing Kerry has going for him is that he's not George Bush. In most other countries, he'd be right wing both economically and socially.
Your bone's got a little machine
 
whitehatter
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RE: Bush 'bounce' Dissipates

Wed Sep 08, 2004 9:54 am

In most other countries, he'd be right wing both economically and socially.

That's actually very true!

In Britain he'd fit nicely into the Conservatives as one of their moderate wing.
Lead me not into temptation, I can find my own way there...
 
gigneil
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RE: Bush 'bounce' Dissipates

Wed Sep 08, 2004 9:55 am

In most other countries, he'd be right wing both economically and socially.

That's just not quite true. He is a moderate Democrat, yes.

I am in the camp that will vote for Kerry just because he's not George Bush. He's not a great candidate, but he's by far and away the lesser of two evils.

N
 
aloges
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RE: Bush 'bounce' Dissipates

Wed Sep 08, 2004 9:56 am

Well, I don't like Kerry either, and he sure has failed to do a lot of (campaign) work that needed to be done. BUT: compared to George Bush, nothing can be worse, although it's sad that this election is all about this.
Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.
 
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Aloha717200
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RE: Bush 'bounce' Dissipates

Wed Sep 08, 2004 10:05 am

Kerry has not run as effective a campaign as we had hoped, I'll give you that one. There should be NO reason for Bush to be in a position to win at all this year. NONE.

Bush is running his campaign like a challenger....completely ignoring the last 4 years and saying things like how much some parts of america are struggling and what he'll do to fix it.


GEORGE, YOU HAD 4 YEARS TO FIX IT, DAMN IT!!


Broken and empty promises. He's acting like the last 4 years were just handed to him. There is no reason for him to win.


And the blame can only rest on Kerry for not having soundly trounced Bush at this point. There were several opportunities, Kerry blew almost all of them.



Yeah, I'm pissed.



But I don't support Bush and never will. And I'll fight to get Kerry elected anyway. This one is too damn important and I think even you bushies will regret your vote in due time, should Bush get re-elected.


Nevertheless:

Nevertheless, it's even more interesting to note that Kerry received absolutely NO "bounce" whatsoever following the Democratic National Convention


Bullshit. Kerry had an 11-point lead according to the L.A. Times after the convention, and guess what, that poll was in error because they polled more democrats than republicans.


KINDA LIKE TIME AND NEWSWEEK DID?


The double-digit bounce was a myth for Bush. And so was Kerry's double-digit bounce as well.


So there you have it. Oh yeah, I suggest checking out washingtonpost.com and the new york times for some reliable news sources.


Hey....B757300, you said that gallup was a reliable source before. Would they still be reliable...if they show Kerry in the lead?

For all your accusations against Kerry you sure flip-flop as much as the wind changes direction so long as it serves to better the image and perception of your candidate.
 
777236ER
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RE: Bush 'bounce' Dissipates

Wed Sep 08, 2004 10:07 am

That's just not quite true. He is a moderate Democrat, yes.

But it is though - name me a country where he'd be considered left wing.

He doesn't have any real policies that stand out against Bush. If he just came out and said "I'm against the war on Iraq", or "I'd end farm subsidies", or "I'll reduce CO2 emissions by 20% in 5 years" rather than trying to be everything at once, then at least people would have an actual alternative to Bush.
Your bone's got a little machine
 
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EA CO AS
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RE: Bush 'bounce' Dissipates

Wed Sep 08, 2004 10:21 am

Nevertheless, it's even more interesting to note that Kerry received absolutely NO "bounce" whatsoever following the Democratic National Convention


Bullshit. Kerry had an 11-point lead according to the L.A. Times after the convention, and guess what, that poll was in error because they polled more democrats than republicans.



From what I've seen so far, Kerry never increased his margin over President Bush following the Democratic National Convention.



http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-08-01-poll-kerry_x.htm

In the survey, taken Friday and Saturday, Bush led Kerry 50%-46% among likely voters. Independent candidate Ralph Nader was at 2%.

The survey showed Kerry losing 1 percentage point and Bush gaining 4 percentage points from a poll taken the week before the Boston convention.

The change in support was within the poll's margin of error of +/-4 percentage points in the sample of 763 likely voters. But it was nonetheless surprising, the first time since the chaotic Democratic convention in 1972 that a candidate hasn't gained ground during his convention





[Edited 2004-09-08 03:22:48]
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
itsjustme
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RE: Bush 'bounce' Dissipates

Wed Sep 08, 2004 3:26 pm

Broken and empty promises. He's acting like the last 4 years were just handed to him

They WERE handed to him! Thanks to brother Jeb and his Floridians who don't know how to count.
 
nwa man
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RE: Bush 'bounce' Dissipates

Wed Sep 08, 2004 4:02 pm

Of course, the lack of a large "bounce" for either candidate this year has much to do with the fact that unlike in previous election years, the major broadcast networks didn't televise the conventions.

Great decision, by the way. Let's not even mention the acceptance speeches... why air something like Barack Obama's rousing speech or Zell Miller's heartfelt anti-Kerry diatribe when you can run reruns of "The King of Queens" or "Celebrity Fear Factor"?

What a country, man... what a country.


Regards,

N-Dub
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