Cessnapimp
Topic Author
Posts: 1245
Joined: Sun Oct 07, 2001 11:46 am

Election Upsets Of The Past

Tue Oct 26, 2004 7:33 am

Hello all,

As someone who follows the american election process very closely, I'm wondering how many times in the past has it occured that a candidate, although clearly trailing during a campaign, has ended up winning the election in a so-called "upset"?

Since the beginning, it would seem that George W. Bush has been the leader in the polls. Is there still a chance for a Kerry Victory?

The only upset, or semblance to one I can think of is the Kennedy/Johnson victory of 1960 against Nixon/Lodge. A good article on this here:

http://www.beyondbooks.com/gop00/1b.asp The election of 1960

 
garnetpalmetto
Posts: 5351
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2003 1:38 am

RE: Election Upsets Of The Past

Tue Oct 26, 2004 11:05 am

Cessnapimp - how on Earth could you forget this infamous one?



1948, Harry Truman defeats George Dewey by 114 electoral votes and about 2.1 million popular votes after being a heavy underdog throughout the race.
South Carolina - too small to be its own country, too big to be a mental asylum.
 
Cessnapimp
Topic Author
Posts: 1245
Joined: Sun Oct 07, 2001 11:46 am

RE: Election Upsets Of The Past

Tue Oct 26, 2004 12:06 pm

Ah yes,

I though there was another one. Yes, Truman certainly did "give 'em hell" on that one. The democrats would be so lucky to pull a Truman in the upcoming elections; of course, this years case would in no way be as spectacular as the 1948 win. Interesting fact that Newsweek had polled 50 journalists with regards to the winner and they all pegged Dewey!
 
StevenUhl777
Posts: 3281
Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2001 11:02 am

RE: Election Upsets Of The Past

Tue Oct 26, 2004 12:19 pm

As a close observer of the election process, observe even closer this week! The slightest mistake by either, or an event beyond their control can tip it either way.

Rehnquist...the missing explosives (which hopefully won't be used in an attack in Iraq in the next 7 days)...ANYTHING.

This is Bush's election to lose...and while the smart money is on him to win reelection...be smart...don't put a lot of money down. He had something like 88% approval in Sept/Nov. 2001...and through mistakes big and small, he's right at 50%, depending on which poll you're following. If Bush maintains that 50% through next Monday, he's set. If it drops to 45% or so, Mr. Bush will be on a nonstop to Crawford on 1/21/05.

I hope for the sake of our national security that President Bush is reelected next Tuesday. God forbid John Kerry wins and we have to ask France or (worse) Kofi Annaan at the UN for approval first before protecting ourselves.
And the winner for best actress is....REESE WITHERSPOON for 'Walk the Line'!!!!!!!!
 
ltbewr
Posts: 12361
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

RE: Election Upsets Of The Past

Tue Oct 26, 2004 12:20 pm

The 1948 Truman-Dewey race is one of the great upsets of all time in the USA. Truman was Vice President in the last term of FDR, and took over only a few months after FDR took office after the start of his 4th term as US President. Truman was a senator from Missouri prior to being chosen as VP in the 1944 election. He was chosen as he went after war profiteeirs and people whom didn't meet military contract standards as a Senator. He was the President who - for better or worse - made the decision to drop the atomic bombs in Japan. As acting Presidnet, he made the first steps in racial desegeration in the USA, by desegerating by race the US Military and was the force behind the USA to be the 1st major nation to recognize Isreal. In the run up to the election of 1948, Truman was way behind - 12-15% points behind Dewey, who was a state Proscuter in Manhattan, NYC and then Governor of NY State. Truman then went on a long train campaign tour, he bertated the 'do nothing' Republican dominated Congress, and won by a significant margin.
The 1960 JF Kennedy (D) vs. Nixon (R) race was one of the closest until the 2000 election. Supposdly, the 'dead' voted from their graves in the Chicago area of ILL for Kennedy, and thus won with other states, enough to badly beat Nixon in terms of electorial votes. The popular vote margin for Kennedy was estimated at about 200,000, or about 1 vote for each voting district in the USA at the time.
 
Klaus
Posts: 20578
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

StevenUhl777

Tue Oct 26, 2004 11:47 pm

StevenUhl777: I hope for the sake of our national security that President Bush is reelected next Tuesday. God forbid John Kerry wins and we have to ask France or (worse) Kofi Annaan at the UN for approval first before protecting ourselves.

You were not protecting yourselves by invading Iraq!

The UN charta explicitly states that self-protection does not need assent by anyone. So stop peddling this silly nonsense.

Nobody is interested in telling you how to protect yourself.

But trampling all over the world to make a mess of things and expecting others to clean up after you will provoke quite a storm of justified criticism.

Stop whining and put up with it! You wanted it, you broke it, you clean it up!

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: kngkyle, N867DA, WarRI1 and 17 guests