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Statistical Analysis Shows Voting Irregularities

Fri Nov 19, 2004 11:25 am

This "conspiracy theory" is getting more and more intriguing...

BERKELEY, Calif., Nov. 18 /PRNewswire/ -- Today the University of California's Berkeley Quantitative Methods Research Team released a statistical study - the sole method available to monitor the accuracy of e- voting - reporting irregularities associated with electronic voting machines may have awarded 130,000-260,000 or more excess votes to President George W. Bush in Florida in the 2004 presidential election. The study shows an unexplained discrepancy between votes for President Bush in counties where electronic voting machines were used versus counties using traditional voting methods - what the team says can be deemed a "smoke alarm." Discrepancies this large or larger rarely arise by chance - the probability is less than 0.1 percent. The research team formally disclosed results of the study at a press conference today at the UC Berkeley Survey Research Center, where they called on Florida voting officials to investigate.

The three counties where the voting anomalies were most prevalent were also the most heavily Democratic: Broward, Palm Beach and Miami-Dade, respectively. Statistical patterns in counties that did not have e-touch voting machines predict a 28,000 vote decrease in President Bush's support in Broward County; machines tallied an increase of 51,000 votes - a net gain of 81,000 for the incumbent. President Bush should have lost 8,900 votes in Palm Beach County, but instead gained 41,000 - a difference of 49,900. He should have gained only 18,400 votes in Miami-Dade County but saw a gain of 37,000 - a difference of 19,300 votes.

"For the sake of all future elections involving electronic voting - someone must investigate and explain the statistical anomalies in Florida," says Professor Michael Hout. "We're calling on voting officials in Florida to take action."

The research team is comprised of doctoral students and faculty in the UC Berkeley sociology department, and led by Sociology Professor Michael Hout, a nationally-known expert on statistical methods and a member of the National Academy of Sciences and the UC Berkeley Survey Research Center.

For its research, the team used multiple-regression analysis, a statistical method widely used in the social and physical sciences to distinguish the individual effects of many variables on quantitative outcomes like vote totals. This multiple-regression analysis takes into account of the following variables by county:

* number of voters
* median income
* Hispanic/Latino population
* change in voter turnout between 2000 and 2004
* support for Senator Dole in the 1996 election
* support for President Bush in the 2000 election
* use of electronic voting or paper ballots

"No matter how many factors and variables we took into consideration, the significant correlation in the votes for President Bush and electronic voting cannot be explained," said Hout. "The study shows, that a county's use of electronic voting resulted in a disproportionate increase in votes for President Bush. There is just a trivial probability of evidence like this appearing in a population where the true difference is zero - less than once in a thousand chances."

The data used in this study came from public sources including CNN.com, the 2000 US Census, and the Verified Voting Foundation. For a copy of the working paper, raw data and other information used in the study can be found at: http://ucdata.berkeley.edu.

Never let the facts get in the way of a good theory.
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Joined: Mon Feb 21, 2000 1:12 pm

RE: Statistical Analysis Shows Voting Irregulariti

Fri Nov 19, 2004 11:49 am

...either that or more people really voted for President Bush.
"Shaddap you!"
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Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2002 5:48 am

RE: Statistical Analysis Shows Voting Irregulariti

Fri Nov 19, 2004 2:27 pm

130,000-260,000 or more excess votes to President George W. Bush in Florida in the 2004 presidential election.

So let's see....

He 'won' Florida by 350,000 votes so if we subtract 260,000 and add that to kerry's total count... Kerry wins by 110,000 votes. Now that's just those 3 counties... not to mention the Volusia and Palm Beach County discrepancies (which are under investigation)....

Plus these this week...
TUESDAY NOV 16 2004: Volusia County election records just got put on lockdown -- Dueling lawyers, election officials gnashing teeth, Votergate.tv film crew catching it all. Poll tape discrepancies, stonewalling; Scroll down for full story.
and this...

SATURDAY NOV 13 2004: Black Box Voting has launched a fraud audit into Florida.Information request by Monday (Diebold counties) or Tuesday (other counties).

and this...
Where two precincts have 1000s of Bush but had only 600+ regisitered voters (and Kerry received a paltry 290 votes).... David Cobb (Green Party) and Michael Badnarik (Libertarian Party) will be filing for official recounts in Ohio. Black Box Voting is also launching a fraud audit in Ohio. Gotta

And this....
SATURDAY NOV 13 2004: Black Box Voting is implementing fraud diagnostics on the state of New Mexico. Information we recently received is indicative of widespread vote manipulation.

And this...
SATURDAY NOV 13 2004: Black Box Voting is requesting legal assistance for a specific county in Georgia. Indications of corrupt voting processes, with possible criminal actions by local officials.

And this....
SATURDAY NOV 13 2004: Black Box Voting is launching a fraud investigation on Pima County Arizona.

And this...
SATURDAY NOV 13 2004: Black Box Voting is launching a fraud investigation on the state of Nevada. Pro bono legal help certified to practice in Nevada, needed immediately. Multiple irregularities. Need people to take affidavits from election workers, statewide.

And this...
FRIDAY NOV 12 2004: Ralph Nader to audit Diebold machines in New Hampshire. ...

So in a nutshell..... the faulty tabulation in the Northern democratic counties were 1000s of more unexplained Bush votes lends the appearance that Florida has been ripped off.. again. Along Ohio and possibly a few other places. It won't change anything. But if and investigation revealed that Chevron has been ripping off consumers over the last two years (like Enron nearly sunk California with bogus electricity/energy shortages)... I want know everything I possibly can about it. This is no exception. Of course this news the RWAKs don 't want to hear abit of this news... it's over in their minds... stolen and theft are terms they cannot pronounce.

But some of us already knew this... it's starting to look like the Exit polls were right on the money.


"Home of the Brave, made by the Slaves..Land of the Free, if you look like me.." T. Jefferson
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Joined: Wed Jul 07, 1999 11:27 am

RE: Statistical Analysis Shows Voting Irregularities

Fri Nov 19, 2004 2:30 pm

So in a nutshell, the clearly biased people at blackbox.com at attemting to get their canidate they supported elected,despite the will of the people.

Guys the election is over...give it up....the better man won.
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Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2001 10:39 am

RE: Statistical Analysis Shows Voting Irregularities

Fri Nov 19, 2004 2:33 pm

Sour grapes and flamebait.

Give it up already.


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