gkirk
Posts: 23345
Joined: Thu Jun 15, 2000 3:29 am

China As A Future Superpower

Wed Mar 23, 2005 3:46 am

Hi
Was having a think and with the way things are developing in China, do you think they will become an economic/military/social world super power, and possibly overtake the USA as THE world superpower anytime in the future?
Your thoughts please, and keep it civil  Smile
When you hear the noise of the Tartan Army Boys, we'll be coming down the road!
 
User avatar
yyz717
Posts: 15689
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2001 12:26 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Wed Mar 23, 2005 4:00 am

I predict they will eventually become a world economic & military power, but not before a few missteps. No country has ever become prosperous without shaking off the yoke of dictatorship (I guess SIN is one counter example). As China becomes wealthier, its citizens will become more prosperous and (as in other countries) will begin to demand more democracy. I think in the next 10 years we may a rising-up against the the Communist Party which could result in something akin to civil war.

I also see a strong possiblity of a China-Taiwan war which would seriously harm the Chinese economy.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
ConcordeBoy
Posts: 16852
Joined: Thu Feb 01, 2001 8:04 am

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Wed Mar 23, 2005 4:05 am

Quoting Yyz717 (Reply 1):
I also see a strong possiblity of a China-Taiwan war

Agreed



Quoting Yyz717 (Reply 1):
which would seriously harm the Chinese economy.

...both internally, and possible in terms of foreign relations as well.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
DIJKKIJK
Posts: 1782
Joined: Sun Jul 27, 2003 11:03 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Wed Mar 23, 2005 4:06 am

Quoting Yyz717 (Reply 1):
I also see a strong possiblity of a China-Taiwan war which would seriously harm the Chinese economy.

In the event of a war, it will take only a few minutes for China to overrun Taiwan. And their economy will remain as strong as it is.

Things might turn out differently though, if "you-know-who-I-am-talking-about" decides to liberate Taiwan, but I wonder they'll do that given China's economic importance.
Never argue with idiots. They will bring you down to their level, and beat you with experience.
 
User avatar
yyz717
Posts: 15689
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2001 12:26 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Wed Mar 23, 2005 4:17 am

Quoting DIJKKIJK (Reply 3):
In the event of a war, it will take only a few minutes for China to overrun Taiwan. And their economy will remain as strong as it is.

Actually, Taiwan is extremely well defended, and extremely mountainous. China does not have the military power (short of nukes) to successfully invade Taiwan. The only likely result is a draw with no gains, but much economic loss.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
777236ER
Posts: 12213
Joined: Sat Aug 18, 2001 7:10 am

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Wed Mar 23, 2005 4:20 am

They are a superpower. Huge population, very important economy (just look at how their demand for oil is affecting the West), they are very important militarily (especially with respect to North Korea) and they're a world power socially at least in so far as the entire Western country is built upon labour in China et al.

I disagree with Yyz717 about Communism and power. The USSR was a superpower, surpressing the US in the early days. It had economic, military and social might, despite its political system.
Your bone's got a little machine
 
jaysit
Posts: 10186
Joined: Thu Jun 01, 2000 11:50 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Wed Mar 23, 2005 4:23 am

There is more to being a superpower than just tanks and guns and factories churning out goods.

The issue here is that how much can China culturally affect the world? People around the world dismiss the US as having no culture (as if culture only means Kings and Queens in castles getting their heads lopped off), but US culture permeates the entire world and is very powerful. Chinese culture is still more traditional and is geographically restricted. If China can compete with the US in the global cultural sphere, then, yes, it can become a superpower.
Atheism is Myth Understood.
 
Russophile
Posts: 1304
Joined: Tue Jan 27, 2004 9:22 am

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Wed Mar 23, 2005 4:34 am

Quoting Yyz717 (Reply 4):
Actually, Taiwan is extremely well defended, and extremely mountainous

It matters not that Taiwan is mountainous, for the mountains are all on the east side of the island, with very little population on the east.

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 2):
...both internally, and possible in terms of foreign relations as well.

The only way that China would invade Taiwan is if the Taiwanese declare independence. Considering that the world has diplomatic relations with China, recognising Beijing as the only legitimate government, Taiwan would be seen as the provocateur in any instance. Except maybe by the US. It certainly would be an interesting war -- if only to see if any countries aside from Japan and South Korea would join the US.

Anyway, to back what 777236ER said -- China already is a superpower -- largest population, 2nd largest economy (and growing) and a huge and expanding military.
 
garnetpalmetto
Posts: 5351
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2003 1:38 am

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Wed Mar 23, 2005 4:54 am

Quoting Russophile (Reply 7):
largest population, 2nd largest economy (and growing) and a huge and expanding military.

Population really isn't a requirement of beina superpower, though, russophile. Consider that England, a fairly small nation-state, was THE superpower of the 19th century, despite France's best efforts to the contrary. The main requirements, as recognized by most political scientists are

1) Military (especially naval) power
2) Economic power
3) Normative power (IE how readily accepted their influence is internationally)

Given those criteria, I'd say that China is not yet a superpower but is on the way to becoming one. In regards to military power, they certainly have the manpower, but in terms of technology, they're at least one generation behind the West and in some areas (especially the PLAN's submarine forces) two generations behind the West. Further, the PLAN is not a true blue water navy yet. Trans-Pacific expeditions aside, the PLAN is a lagging force, albeit one that's working to jump that generational gap.

Economically, sure, I'll agree with you. Normative is a tough draw, due to concerns by a good portion of the world about their human rights record, their internal freedoms, etc.

Let's also not forget too, that internally China is still a developing state. Give them 25-50 years, but in the year 2005, I would be highly hesitant to hang the "superpower" monniker around the PRC.
South Carolina - too small to be its own country, too big to be a mental asylum.
 
BN747
Posts: 5344
Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2002 5:48 am

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Wed Mar 23, 2005 5:14 am

Quoting Yyz717 (Reply 4):
Actually, Taiwan is extremely well defended, and extremely mountainous. China does not have the military power (short of nukes) to successfully invade Taiwan.

Oh brother....

China's Air Force is 10x the size of Taiwans'

There Navy dwarfs Taiwans'

And the troop strength.... don't even go there!


They could blockade the island effortlessly. Attack the airbases by air and sea.

Drop 1000s of paratroopers into CKS and Kaoshiungs Airports and take control of those (decoy paratroopers into every major city). Taiwans limited Air Force would be forced to choose between attacking ships, engage in air-to-air combat or defend the cities against troop drops. They'd be overrun in a matter of jours if not minutes. A massive Air/Sea attack by China would seal the deal within a week or two. As much as I'd hate see it happen.. if by force, China could do it with out breaking a sweat.

Street combat 'Iraqi style' would never materialize... the chinese (Taiwanese) capitalist have built up too much to let it all go to hell so quickly... they'd cut a deal before the 1st bomb would fall.

Taiwans' mountain are a defense against what exactly?

And yes, China is already a Superpower.

BN747
"Home of the Brave, made by the Slaves..Land of the Free, if you look like me.." T. Jefferson
 
Airlinerfreak
Posts: 1246
Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2005 4:16 am

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Wed Mar 23, 2005 5:26 am

Oh boy could I go on for hours on this, which I will probably find myself doing but the simple answer is they already are. When it comes time for me to actually have to pursue something in life I am going to pursue international business. Hang in there I am going to get to my point eventually. I would really like to be a professional athlete, but that is not reasonable as of now. But I think it would be fun to deal with different countries, and somewhat slow down the sort of monopoly that China is becoming. Also opening up "new trade routes." I think we should open up more manufacturing plants in Mexico so they can stop coming up here and get good pay down there. Because, at the end of the day, what jobs do they end up having. I also think we should stop taking advantage of India and move into cities that are hurting to stay alive such as Venezuela and South African cities. I think we should move businesses to places where they really need it, not where it is the cheapest.

We need to stop this monopoly that China is creating. We need to slow down China. Also, they are good copiers, they are not good makers if that makes sense. They are good at copying the product, it looks the same smells the same everything, except it does not work the same. China is a communist country that once it takes power of the world will destroy the world. What Mr. Bush is doing is destroying this country and he doesn't even know it. He is letting manufacturing being done in China, he is letting our calls go to people who can barely speak English, and he is letting the Saudi's take an ownership in 8% of this country we once called America. I will hold my other comments until I get attacked from some who disagree, but this is just a prelude of what I really have to say.
 
jaysit
Posts: 10186
Joined: Thu Jun 01, 2000 11:50 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Wed Mar 23, 2005 5:27 am

Taiwans' mountain are a defense against what exactly?

LOL.

Against tsunamis, I guess?
Atheism is Myth Understood.
 
User avatar
yyz717
Posts: 15689
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2001 12:26 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Wed Mar 23, 2005 5:42 am

Quoting BN747 (Reply 9):
Taiwans' mountain are a defense against what exactly?

Effective overland attack form the coast. Mountains are always a deterrent to subduing a population, or even reaching it overland.

Quoting BN747 (Reply 9):
China's Air Force is 10x the size of Taiwans'

There Navy dwarfs Taiwans'

And the troop strength.... don't even go there!

The PRC military remains very much a 3rd world military with poor discipline, generally aged equipment, corruption and desertation. The PRC navy is also not a blue water navy. The ROC armed forced are top notch. The 10-1 ratio will not overcome any military stalemate that will ensure. Taiwan also has the power the strike military targets on the mainland.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
dl021
Posts: 10836
Joined: Fri May 21, 2004 12:04 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Wed Mar 23, 2005 11:08 am

The PRC is a major power merely by the fact that it has a billion or so people and the ability to launch ICBM's at the rest of the world. They are still a third world country with trouble feeding itself, and a mostly manual labor workforce run by a semi-feudal system of warlords (PLA Generals who run the manufacturing and economy). As time develops the people responsible for the successes of China will continue to demand more and more freedom. It will take a while, but its already on the way. You can't kill the spirit we saw at Tiananmen Square.

As far as Taiwan

China's Air Force is 10x the size of Taiwans'

But it's spread out and their modern fleet only now begins to match Taiwans in size and tech. The problem is that the PLAAF would not be able to put them all in theater and would suffer high losses against the ROC AF.

There Navy dwarfs Taiwans'

Once again, only technically. The Taiwanese are able to concentrate their entire force in one theater but the PRC could not. Their modern vessels would probably not enter the combat zone unless they were assured that the US was not positioning its forces in the area. If we decided to put 5 or 6 SSNs in the area the PLAN would simply be a target rich environment.

And the troop strength.... don't even go there!

You got a point there. The problem is that there's no good way to get them to Taiwan. The PLAN has practiced using the fishing and cargo fleet but you can't land forces from regular vessels onto a beach.


They could blockade the island effortlessly. Attack the airbases by air and sea.

They could not effectively blockade as long as the US is willing to meet its obligations to the Taiwanese spelled out during the negotiations with the PRC during the recognition talks. Once again it would not be difficult to sink the PLAN Navy.

Drop 1000s of paratroopers into CKS and Kaoshiungs Airports and take control of those (decoy paratroopers into every major city). Taiwans limited Air Force would be forced to choose between attacking ships, engage in air-to-air combat or defend the cities against troop drops. They'd be overrun in a matter of jours if not minutes

They don't have the ability (airlift capacity) to execute a vertical envelopment big enough to take over Taiwan especially if there is no massive invasion coming to rescue the airborne troops, which is what every airborne invasion force requires. They could probably not even get in with enough troops to take the airports they would need to airlift in more troops.


What has the Taiwanese scared is the plan to destroy their infrastructure with ballistic missiles from the shore. The PLAN AF and Army have the ability to completely wreck the cities, airfields, and ports of the ROC and the thing that everyone wonders is if the PRC is willing to lose the productivity of Taiwan for 30 years while it pacifies and rebuilds, as well as take the heat for hammering the islands from the rest of the world.
Is my Pan Am ticket to the moon still good?
 
bill142
Posts: 7853
Joined: Wed Aug 04, 2004 1:50 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Wed Mar 23, 2005 7:03 pm

If China's military is as bad as some ofyou say it is then perhaps they won't be invading Taiwan anytime soon. Maybe once the arms embargos get lifted and they can get some better equipment that can rival Taiwans US supplied equipment then maybe we will start to see some action.

As for China being a super power, not yet. They are starting to gain alot of power but untill they can provide for all of their citizens the forget about it. Some parts of China don't even have electricty and clean water. Those parts probably resemble a thrid world country rather then what a 'superpower' can offer to it.
While its all well and good to be promoting China on an international level, there are other more important domestic issues to be addressed rather then trying to be seen as a force to be reckoned with.
 
User avatar
HAWK21M
Posts: 29867
Joined: Fri Jan 05, 2001 10:05 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Wed Mar 23, 2005 7:09 pm

Would China be a Matured Superpower especially with the Secret Image it has.
regds
MEL
I may not win often, but I damn well never lose!!! ;)
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 5421
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Wed Mar 23, 2005 7:32 pm

Quoting Russophile (Reply 7):
Considering that the world has diplomatic relations with China, recognising Beijing as the only legitimate government, Taiwan would be seen as the provocateur in any instance.

How would dare they to declare independece, right? Never heard of right to self-determination, Russo?
 
dl021
Posts: 10836
Joined: Fri May 21, 2004 12:04 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 12:29 am

Quoting Bill142 (Reply 14):
If China's military is as bad as some ofyou say it is then perhaps they won't be invading Taiwan anytime soon

DId not say they were bad....they just aren't fully developed. Elements of the PLA are very good.

Self determination for the ROC may be a matter of a long wait to see who gives in first, or whose system succeeds.
Is my Pan Am ticket to the moon still good?
 
mham001
Posts: 4183
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:52 am

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 1:22 am

Economically they are not quite over the hump. They have banking problems looming that need to be handled. Have to wait and see if it is. Currently, Chinese banks are holding $600 Billion in bad loans. That is going to hurt.
 
jamesag96
Posts: 2007
Joined: Sat Dec 01, 2001 2:59 am

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 1:53 am

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 5):
I disagree with Yyz717 about Communism and power. The USSR was a superpower, surpressing the US in the early days. It had economic, military and social might, despite its political system.

And their power continues to grow today.
Why Kate, You're not wearing a bustle. How lewd.
 
FDXmech
Posts: 3219
Joined: Sun Mar 19, 2000 9:48 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 2:00 am

>>>Economically they are not quite over the hump<<<

Correct. The US isn't quite finished giving them our industrial capacity, yet.
You're only as good as your last departure.
 
User avatar
yyz717
Posts: 15689
Joined: Mon Sep 10, 2001 12:26 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 3:11 am

Quoting L410Turbolet (Reply 16):
Quoting Russophile (Reply 7):
Considering that the world has diplomatic relations with China, recognising Beijing as the only legitimate government, Taiwan would be seen as the provocateur in any instance.

How would dare they to declare independece, right? Never heard of right to self-determination, Russo?

I agree with L410Turbolet. For all intents & purposes, Taiwan is an independent country already from an economic, taxation & nationalist perspective. It is also democratic. If Taiwan elects a govt that opts for true independence or proposes a referendum on separation, the West should support their ambitions. Self-determination should trump ALL politics. Let's remember that despite the booming economy in China, China is still run by a one-party Communist dictatorship that suppresses human rights -- indeed the same party that killed an estimated 25M Chinese in the 1966-76 cultural revolution. Taiwan is the true friend of the West, not China.

Regarding the term "superpower", I define it as the military ability to dominate or control ANY part of the world. Only the US has this capability now. The USSR had it, but lost it. China does not have it, nor is it likely to for 50 years.
I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
 
jaysit
Posts: 10186
Joined: Thu Jun 01, 2000 11:50 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 3:51 am

I think that China was shocked out of its stupor back in 1996 during the Taiwan crisis, when the US sent gunships to face off to China's bullying tactics. Since then it has spent billions in beefing up its military. Taiwan's military expenditures have remained stagnant.

Still, even if China did invade Taiwan successfully by sheer might alone, it would not qualify as a superpower. Could it say, engage in the same level of military might as the US did in Iraq thousands of miles from home? No.

However, I still believe that being a superpower means that you export your culture overseas too - as the US has done successfully, and as the Soviets did for a limited time with exporting communism. China's culture still remains a mystery to most people around the world. Right now its just the largest and most important factory in the world.
Atheism is Myth Understood.
 
DLKAPA
Posts: 7962
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2003 10:37 am

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 4:11 am

Based on the exponential growth of China's GDP, and the shrinking of the US GDP, I think you'll see China becoming a superpower within 20 years.
And all at once the crowd begins to sing: Sometimes the hardest thing and the right thing are the same
 
jaysit
Posts: 10186
Joined: Thu Jun 01, 2000 11:50 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 4:41 am

The US GDP is not shrinking.
Its just not growing at the same rate as China's (3% vs 10%).
Atheism is Myth Understood.
 
BN747
Posts: 5344
Joined: Thu Mar 28, 2002 5:48 am

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 5:12 am

DL021 your viewpoint relies heavily on US intervention. My take on that is the US has abandoned it's old obligations that were the mission of the 7th Fleet--to provide a buffer or protection within the Taiwan Straits. It did so when it agreed to recognize the Beijing Gov't as the one and only ruler of China... abandoning the Nationalist Regime.

As of the late the US has not-so-quietly been slipping some weapons systems into the ROC. But nowhere near the scale of what it use to be.

If the former US commitment is fulfilled in the case of a China attack then I'm inclined to agree that China cannot pull this off. But, the US, even under Dubya doesn't have the desire to enter this particular spat, the consequences would be too great-- not only in cost of lives. China's newfound economic might has pretty much all of Asia on edge...esp. Japan. Everyone in the region smells 'payback'.... and it doesn't smell good at all.

Without US intervention, Taiwan is a sitting duck. No other nation in the region or not... will interfere. Fishing boats and hovercraft will do the job as far amphibious logistics are concerned there are too many western ports in Taiwan for this not to suceed. Taiwan's newest fighter jets the F-16s I believe only number between 100-200 at best. There's no way they can muster enough sorties to protect against an armada of ancient MIGs and SU-17s or whatever else the Reds are sporting, plus protect the ports/harbors and the two major Airports, plus protect all the Airbases in Taiwan. Without US assistance (under the present US understanding), blockading the Island would be a cinch and China could flood the straits with make-shift troop transports (ferries,cargo, tanker ships exc. The sheer numbers of overwhelming (red) chinese troops--even losely organized, yet very disciplined will get the job the done. Sure Taiwan has a bit of a tech edge... but one on one.. unfortunately that would make up the imbalance.


BN747
"Home of the Brave, made by the Slaves..Land of the Free, if you look like me.." T. Jefferson
 
FDXmech
Posts: 3219
Joined: Sun Mar 19, 2000 9:48 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 5:16 am

>>>The US GDP is not shrinking.
Its just not growing at the same rate as China's (3% vs 10%).
<<<

I wonder what country is fueling China's GDP?
You're only as good as your last departure.
 
jaysit
Posts: 10186
Joined: Thu Jun 01, 2000 11:50 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 5:32 am

I wonder what country is fueling China's GDP?

I'd say the whole world is.
Its not only Americans who like cheap tonka trucks and sneakers. Chinese consumer products are everywhere. They line the streets of places like India, Argentina, Italy, Dubai. The list is endless.
Atheism is Myth Understood.
 
stlgph
Posts: 8929
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:19 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 5:46 am

To be a superpower a country must not only have

capability

-but-

will and intent.

America’s hegemony and ideology as the premiere superpower is challenged by the forces of multipolarity – though the USA continues to hold capability and purpose in its superpower credentials. It demonstrated this, for example, by going to war against Iraq in 2003 without a UN mandate.

Does China have the capability and/or the will and intent?

Napoleon said "Let the Chinese dragon sleep, for when she wakes she will shake the world."

But also remember throughout history, China has been regarded as a trader, not a warrior.



As for military actions, a popular saying in Beijing goes like this-

"Saddam Hussein is a good student of Mao Zedong's"
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
Russophile
Posts: 1304
Joined: Tue Jan 27, 2004 9:22 am

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 5:54 am

Quoting L410Turbolet (Reply 16):
How would dare they to declare independece, right? Never heard of right to self-determination, Russo?

If you really think that losing a war and escaping to an island (along with gold reserves which belong to several hundred million people) and then 'enslaving' the local population, is a basis for self-determination, I pity you.
 
slider
Posts: 6805
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2004 11:42 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 5:54 am

China is an amazing story: they presently have something like 70% of the world's construction cranes, are gobbling up oil and other resources like crazy, but they're going to have to face reality pretty soon. And here's one of the signs:

http://cnn.netscape.cnn.com/ns/news/...14&dt=20050323100400&w=APO&coview=

Report: China Faces Severe Water Shortages

SHANGHAI, China (AP) - China's already severe water shortages are worsening due to heavy pollution of lakes and aquifers and urban development projects with a big thirst for water, such as lawns and fountains, state media reported.

More than 100 cities have inadequate water supplies, with more than half ``seriously threatened,'' the official Xinhua News Agency cited Qiu Baoxing, a vice minister of construction, as saying.

``The uneven distribution of the limited resource and serious pollution further deteriorate the situation,'' Qiu said.

In Beijing, for example, each resident has access to only 10,593 cubic feet of water a year, compared with the world average of 35,310 cubic feet, Xinhua said in a separate report.

Recent urban greenery projects have only worsened the problem due to widespread planting of lawns and construction of fountains that consume large amounts of water, he said.

Meanwhile, experts warned that more than 300 million rural Chinese lack clean drinking water since most waterways are fouled by industrial effluent, untreated sewage and runoff of agricultural chemicals from fields.

A survey in January found that only 47 percent of water in major rivers is drinkable, while half of all lakes are heavily polluted. And 35 percent of ground water is undrinkable due to pollution, Xinhua reported.

``Hundreds of thousands (of) Chinese are afflicted with various diseases from drinking water that contains too much fluorine, arsenic, sodium sulfate or bitter salt,'' it cited Wang Shucheng, minister of Water Resources, as saying.

Wang said the government planned to boost spending on water treatment. He called for better enforcement of often-ignored environmental protection standards.

A five-year, 18 billion yuan ($2.1 billion) program to improve the drinking water supply in the countryside, home to three-quarters of China's 1.3 billion people, has already ensured safe water for 57 million people, Xinhua reported.


*********************************

Now beyond the water issue, let's not forget China is a Communist country. The economic boom they're experiencing is presaging a demand for individual liberty. It will happen. And when it does, the cheap labor, cheap goods, and in turn, some of the prosperity we've seen will go bust, ala the dot com collapse. Those workers are going to demand freedom, and a better standard of living, one that is earned not doled out by the government.

If as many Chinese as there are Americans lack clean drinking water, that's a major problem.

And it's taken 21 responses before Yyz so aptly pointed out that China is still a Communist nation that supresses basic human rights, doesn't acknowledge the rights of women, basic liberties, and kills newborns born as an undesired gender.

All the window dressing aside--hints of Westernization, skyscrapers, Olympic bid (which IMHO in unconscionable--may as well have given it to Havana), free trade and commerce, burgeoning space program and high tech industries--they're still in un unwinnable position with regard to Communism.

China may be the first nation to put a man on the moon but can't get clean drinking water to its own citizens. That's an unacceptable position.

But hey, just shutup Slider, you can go buy the cheap imported plastic goods at Wal-Mart, right?  Sad
 
dl021
Posts: 10836
Joined: Fri May 21, 2004 12:04 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 5:57 am

BN747...You are correct that the PRC would definitely have an easier time without US intervention. But remember back a year or so ago when a reporter asked President Bush if we would come to Taiwans aid militarily if attacked and he automatically, without couching the phraseology, said yes. That was the response of a man who knows the policy and intent. The administration voices later "clarified" his position to make it more palatable to the PRC, but it is still obviously policy to stand behind the Taiwanese if they are threatened militarily.

The overwhelming might of the PLA is a quality all its own, but the ending point I made would hold true no matter what happened. The Taiwanese have a fleet of modern jet fighters, inclyding as you say the F-16s, plus Mirage2000s (about 60 of them) and a hundred or so Ching Kuos which were the airplane they built when it was not clear we would be selling them more airplanes for a while. Taking them by any means other than a devastating bombardment which would wreck the islands infrastructure and cities would be next to impossible. The point about hovercraft and fishing boats is good, but for the fact that the Taiwanese would deny access to their ports with mines and the PRC does not have anything like enough hovercraft for anything other than perhapes brigade size or special forces movements.

The ROC is like a big zit that won't go away for the PRC and they are irritated as hell by them, but don't want the scar involved with popping it. They keep applying clearasil trying to get rid of it but the thing won't budge. Pretty simplistic, but there you have it.

The PRC could render Taiwan unlivable through tactical ballistic missiles, and the Taiwanese could eat up a huge chunk of the PRC's modern military might in a campaign of dubious economic value that would prevent the PRC from reaching for their goals in the Spratleys and Paracel Islands (the really big prize for them), and that would definitely have a seriously adverse trade impact as well as cost them huge sums of cash.

The PRCs best bet here is to continue to work the "One China, Two Systems" promise and try to coopt the younger generation of Chinese on Taiwan who don't bear the grudges of the earlier generations....and they better work hard at it before they screw it up in Hong Kong and the Taiwanese cannot kid themselves about it anymore.

Oh, one last point to make here......the Taiwanese have long been suspected to possess nuclear weapons that they developed with the South Africans and Israelis. It is rumor, and accepted by all the conspiracy theorists, but whether true or not, it has to enter PRC calculus about whether to invade or not.
Is my Pan Am ticket to the moon still good?
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 5421
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:06 am

Quoting Russophile (Reply 29):
If you really think that losing a war and escaping to an island (along with gold reserves which belong to several hundred million people) and then 'enslaving' the local population, is a basis for self-determination

Enslaving? You sound like they teleported you from 1950s. What makes you think they should ask in Bejing what is deemed as "sufficient" basis for self-determination? Desire not become part of a communist country is more than sufficient.
 
jaysit
Posts: 10186
Joined: Thu Jun 01, 2000 11:50 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:13 am

China may be the first nation to put a man on the moon but can't get clean drinking water to its own citizens. That's an unacceptable position.

Perhaps.

But 5 years ago, they couldnt supply clean water to 800 million of its people. Between now and then, 500 million people have access. Its not the current state of China thats the basis for judging its capabilities, but its rapid meteoric growth curve.
Atheism is Myth Understood.
 
slider
Posts: 6805
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2004 11:42 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:13 am

Quoting L410Turbolet (Reply 32):
Desire not become part of a communist country is more than sufficient.

Bingo....and that's where I get irritated over any faulty comparison to the US Civil War and states that seceded. Big difference: Communism and fundamental human rights wasn't involved.

Quoting DL021 (Reply 31):
The ROC is like a big zit that won't go away for the PRC and they are irritated as hell by them, but don't want the scar involved with popping it. They keep applying clearasil trying to get rid of it but the thing won't budge. Pretty simplistic, but there you have it.

LMAO!! Thanks for the imagery, DL! I've not heard a "zit analogy" proferred before...  Smile
 
Russophile
Posts: 1304
Joined: Tue Jan 27, 2004 9:22 am

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:19 am

Quoting L410Turbolet (Reply 32):
Enslaving? You sound like they teleported you from 1950s

Go read what the KMT did to the local population after escaping to Taiwan.


Quoting L410Turbolet (Reply 32):
Desire not become part of a communist country is more than sufficient.

And there we have it. Break all the laws you like. It's all acceptable, so long as you are breaking laws so as not be a communist  Yeah sure

Pathetic.
 
Tobi3334
Posts: 143
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2004 9:51 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:21 am

What is with the chinese airline industry?
Can anyone give a short outline about the existing airlines (size, hubs ...)?

Thanks,
Tobi
 
L-188
Posts: 29874
Joined: Wed Jul 07, 1999 11:27 am

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:32 am

Quoting Yyz717 (Reply 4):
Actually, Taiwan is extremely well defended, and extremely mountainous. China does not have the military power (short of nukes) to successfully invade Taiwan. The only likely result is a draw with no gains, but much economic loss.

Possibly, especially if you factor in the United States Treaty obligations to defend Taiwan. There are probably more then a couple of US SSN's patroling around there are any given time.

Quoting BN747 (Reply 9):
China's Air Force is 10x the size of Taiwans'

There Navy dwarfs Taiwans'

And the troop strength.... don't even go there!


They could blockade the island effortlessly. Attack the airbases by air and sea.

China, for the most part does not have a modern military, operating many systems that are at least two generations behind most modern forces. However it cannot be said that China is not rapidly trying to modernize their forces, as we can see by several of their fighter purchases of late. Up until a few years ago, China belived that numbers where the most important factor in military strength, something that the west even in the cold war countered with technology.

This includes sealift cabability, which they are trying to improve, but in no way could support an invasion force at this time, especially if losses occured. Fishing prams can be used to move men, but they are vunurable and can't carry a lot of heavy gear, such as tanks.....which is why the beaches at Dunkirk where littered with British gear afterward.

If China where to face off against Taiwan, it would face many of the same problems that the Luftwaffe face during the Battle of Britian, and Argentinia faced during the Falklands. They are going up against a distant opponent, operation for all extensive purposes on their home territory. In order to make the trip (China really lacks adequate mid-air refueling assets or carriers) they are going to have to trade off weapons load for fuel. This should give the Taiwanese forces an advantage, because there is going to be a limit as to how long those Chinese fighters are going be able to spend overhead, if they can tangle with them long enough to get them past their point of no return, then you have a kill, regardless if a shot was ever fired.
OBAMA-WORST PRESIDENT EVER....Even SKOORB would be better.
 
dl021
Posts: 10836
Joined: Fri May 21, 2004 12:04 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:34 am

Quoting Slider (Reply 34):
LMAO!! Thanks for the imagery, DL! I've not heard a "zit analogy" proferred before...

just though of it myself, and it seemed appropos. Thanks


russophile.....L410 has lived under a communist regime and probably has more experience with it than do you. The Aboriginal occupants of Taiwan were being abused well before the KMT arrived and were not treated much better afterwards, but that was then... The ROC is a democracy that functions well, and is accountable to its people. Much more than the PRC can say.
Is my Pan Am ticket to the moon still good?
 
L.1011
Posts: 2163
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2001 7:46 am

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:36 am

I am convinced that the PRC is not and never will be a superpower. It is not clear how they will fall, but they will. For the sake of the 1.3 billion people under PRC oppression, I truly hope Beijing is stupid enough to attempt an invasion of Taiwan in the near future. I truly do.
Any Chinese military action against Taiwan will quickly result in US action, the ROK and Japanese will also show up rather quickly as well. Israel, the Europeans, and everyone else who wants to maintain this outpost of freedom and prosperity will likely also send troops.
The ROC will replace the PRC as the diplomatically recognized "China", China will be blockaded and the economy will collpase, the military will be crippled, and they will obviously lose the Olympics.
If the PRC doesn't retreat when the cavalry arrives, they likely will not stop at the shores of the Taiwan Strait, but will tear right across the PRC, from Hong Kong to Shanghai to Beijing to Lhasa. While the PRC is preoccupied with its foolish war across the Taiwan Strait, Tibet and East Turkestan will likely find themselves with an excellent opportunity to split off, which will likely also gain Western support. Nothing better can happen for the world and the 1.3 billion people under the yoke of PRC oppression than a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
Alternatively, the PRC may be smart enough to stay away from Taiwan. They will then face a unique problem, made only possible by the Communist dictatorship present there. The PRC government will be forces to choose between continuing to build skyscrapers and maglev lines and Olympic stadiums, or start improving the dismal living standards of their people.
If they choose the former, they will quickly find themselves engulfed in civil unrest, then war over simply being able to eat. The poor rural residents of the PRC will find themselves questioning why there isn't food on their table but there is a new maglev line and Olympic stadium and dozens of skyscrapers hundreds of miles away. That will undoubtably result in war.
If they choose the latter, they will find themselves back in a rut for another 100 years, slowly developing their country. I am convinced that Communism will not be a living, breathing government in the world's largest country. It will be a solemn chapter in a dusty history book. How exactly that will come about, we cannot know.
 
Pope
Posts: 3995
Joined: Thu Mar 24, 2005 5:57 am

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:37 am

Being able to invade Taiwan does not make China a superpower. I would argue that in order to be a superpower, you must be able to project force over a sizable distance.

China needs to develop a blue water navy. Not just with subs but this vessels able to project power far from their home land and control sea lanes.

One day (perhaps sooner than we'd like to accept) oil will become a very scarce commodity. Whoever's navy can dictate what direction ships coming out of the strait of Hormuz turn (left to China or right to the US and Europe) will be the real superpower.

Just my thoughts.
Hypocrisy. It's the new black for liberals.
 
Russophile
Posts: 1304
Joined: Tue Jan 27, 2004 9:22 am

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 7:04 am

Quoting DL021 (Reply 38):
russophile.....L410 has lived under a communist regime and probably has more experience with it than do you.

I think he was around 10 when the communists lost power in Czechoslovakia (correct me if I am wrong L410). I hardly call that 'living' under a communist regime.

Quoting DL021 (Reply 38):
The Aboriginal occupants of Taiwan were being abused well before the KMT arrived and were not treated much better afterwards, but that was then...

I am not talking about the local aboriginal people. But the local population.

People do realise that Taiwan has been a 'democracy' for only around 5 years, right? And looking at regular footage of the Taiwanese parliament, I wouldn't go so far as saying it is a 'functional' democracy.
 
dl021
Posts: 10836
Joined: Fri May 21, 2004 12:04 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 7:10 am

My mother was living in France during the war from the time she was 4 until she was 10 and she has vivid recollections, as well as the insight from so many peers and close contacts that lived through it as well.

I am certain that L410s experience and memory is a better indication of what living under communism is like than yours. I went to East Berlin when it was that and I can tell you there is a serious difference between life under communism (or marxism/socialism etc) and life in a free society.

For instance...are you ok with the PRC restricting the access to the internet that you would not for a second tolerate?

Taiwan has been a functional democracy for longer than the PRC and even if they still have it out with each other they have peacefully transferred power between civilians more than once without bloodshed or military intervention.
Is my Pan Am ticket to the moon still good?
 
L-188
Posts: 29874
Joined: Wed Jul 07, 1999 11:27 am

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 7:16 am

Quoting DL021 (Reply 42):
For instance...are you ok with the PRC restricting the access to the internet that you would not for a second tolerate?

You know, now that I think about it, I don't see a lot of users from the PRC here, at least not num-nuts decided to stunt fly his fighter into that EP-3 of ours.

Is A-net banned by the Chi-com government?
OBAMA-WORST PRESIDENT EVER....Even SKOORB would be better.
 
stlgph
Posts: 8929
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:19 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 7:17 am

Quoting L-188 (Reply 37):
If China where to face off against Taiwan, it would face many of the same problems that the Luftwaffe face during the Battle of Britian, and Argentinia faced during the Falklands. They are going up against a distant opponent, operation for all extensive purposes on their home territory. In order to make the trip (China really lacks adequate mid-air refueling assets or carriers) they are going to have to trade off weapons load for fuel. This should give the Taiwanese forces an advantage, because there is going to be a limit as to how long those Chinese fighters are going be able to spend overhead, if they can tangle with them long enough to get them past their point of no return, then you have a kill, regardless if a shot was ever fired.

Brush up on your geography a bit. Taiwan is 100 miles off the coast of China. If babies can float from Havana to Miami on a tire, the Chinese could row there.

Since Taiwan is so close to China, international maritime and warfare would become very picky about military action by outside nations if China decides to take action against Taiwan. Other nations would pretty much have to make declaration of war against China, and that is something they really do not want to do. They'd rather just invade Iraq instead.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
stlgph
Posts: 8929
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:19 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 7:17 am

I meant to reference maritime and warfare law. Sorry for leaving that part out.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
stlgph
Posts: 8929
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:19 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 7:21 am

Also, one more thing. China has been acquiring warships, boats, guns, weapons, missles, rockets, planes, submarines, etc. from Russia.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
L-188
Posts: 29874
Joined: Wed Jul 07, 1999 11:27 am

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 7:28 am

Quoting STLGph (Reply 44):
Brush up on your geography a bit. Taiwan is 100 miles off the coast of China. If babies can float from Havana to Miami on a tire, the Chinese could row there.

And England was what 70 miles from France?

In either case a Chinese fighter is going to have a 200 mile minimum trip. that probably isn't a major concern in an SU-27, but in a Mig-21 that has to also haul ordinance, it will be an operational concern.

The fuel to make that trip is something that the Taiwanese will not have to worry about.
OBAMA-WORST PRESIDENT EVER....Even SKOORB would be better.
 
stlgph
Posts: 8929
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:19 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 7:31 am

China doesn't have the best access to oil supplies but in part that is part of what they'd really like out of Taiwan.

But of course, in a government like China, the government could always easily take the supplies they have away from their people and use them for military action. The people will accept it and support it anyway, because it is for China.

We also have no idea what kind of stockpiles they might have in store just to carry off an operation like this, too.
if assumptions could fly, airliners.net would be the world's busiest airport
 
dl021
Posts: 10836
Joined: Fri May 21, 2004 12:04 pm

RE: China As A Future Superpower

Thu Mar 24, 2005 10:20 am

Quoting STLGph (Reply 46):
China has been acquiring warships, boats, guns, weapons, missles, rockets, planes, submarines, etc. from Russia.

You do not take into account the fact that PRC airbases are out of reach of ROC rocketry and artillery (as close as Quemoy Islands a few miles offshore) thus making their trips more distant, and that the Russian made/designed equipment is not terribly long range.

As far as what their people will tolerate no one really knows.
Is my Pan Am ticket to the moon still good?

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Baidu [Spider], MaverickM11, zckls04 and 18 guests