Derico
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Crisis: Time To Annex Bolivia?

Fri Jun 10, 2005 5:00 am

I simply find it amazing that the world seems to be fiddeling squat, while a whole country burns. In this I include the countries that should be most worried about the crisis in Bolivia, Bolivia's neighbors.

Since most people here seem to like the rest of the world, be ignorantly bliss about the situation, let us just say that Bolivia's president Mesa has resigned, there is no constitutional sucessor, and the congress has not even approved Mesa's resignation. Meanwhile, there are protests all over the country (except perhaps the Santa Cruz area) blocking roads, highways, and cities. Food is becoming scarce rather quickly. The population needs cannot be met at this point. There are no civil liberties. Governments from overseas are scrambling, literally, to get their citizens out.

At the same time, there is a Indigenous Movement led by a guy named Morales who wants a collectivistic system where all national resources fall in the hands of the 'indigenous' people of Bolivia. Simultaneously, there is a very strong movement in the Santa Cruz area of Bolivia that is seeking autonomy, and now increasingly outright independence from Bolivia. There are areas in the south of Bolivia, particularly around Tarija and among the Chapacos, that have always shown strong inclinations towards Argentina, even in joining the provinces. And to add spice to the fire, there are drug growing and dealing interests backing various sides at different times, making everything even more confusing and unpredictable.

Finally, Bolivia's energy reserves are at risk, and that puts both Brazil and Argentina, the motors of South America at risk of a sputter. Brazil has large oil investments in Bolivia and they import a lot of fuel from that country. Argentina with it's fast growing economy and booming energy needs has increasingly relied on Bolivian natural gas for industry and home heating consumption, specially now at the start of the Argentine winter. Any disruptions would cause a surge in prices.

So what should happen?

The best thing would be for a new president to be able to rally everyone around, but I find that hard to envision at this point, particularly because various interests (the indigenous movement, the Santa Cruz cessesionists, etc), have committed themselves to their causes and it seems unlikely they would back down after coming this far.

The next option would be an old style Coup D'Etat. The military takes over iron-grip style, all constitutional rights are gone, everyone goes home for supper. If strong enough, the military will squash all oposition. If not, then guerilla warfare would erupt.

Much further down the scale of ominousness, is outright civil war. Various regions seek independence, the indigenous groups seek their own nation, other para-military groups seek their own lands. Result: a bloody internal conflict, or a total breakup of the country.

The last option is mostly fantastic, but may perhaps be the most salvagable of them all: Brazil and Argentina invade Bolivia and peacekeep the place. Brazil takes over the Amazon north of the country, Argentina of the Southeast and the border regions (that always showed afinities towards the ARG anyways). The oil and gas resources are protected. And the Western parts of Bolivia are left alone, and the indigenous movements there are asked to come up with a plan on how to proceed next.

In any event, in South America, Europe, Asia, North America, etc, I've noticed that the Brazil-Argentina match has gotten more attention than the Bolivian situation. That's very, very scary...

Any thoughts at all, anyone??
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NoUFO
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RE: Crisis: Time To Annex Bolivia?

Fri Jun 10, 2005 7:34 am

Quoting Derico (Thread starter):
Brazil and Argentina invade Bolivia and peacekeep the place.

That should be more the job of the United Nations.
What's the OAS going to do? I know Pres. Bush adressed some problems in South America and although I don't know for sure if he mentioned Bolivia, I think he did.

But you are right, as long as nobody dies or gets kidnapped, this place is hardly mentioned over here.
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Derico
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RE: Crisis: Time To Annex Bolivia?

Fri Jun 10, 2005 8:33 am

Well, what I said above, from someone who does know how to write (haha):

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20050608...p/boliviaunrestgasoil_050608122140

And yeah I was not serious about the invasion part, but it just looked funny since oil is involved here. More and more conflicts over oil, just as predicted many years ago by so-called 'doomsayers'. The world is heading to an energy crunch that is causing us to lose the peace.

[Edited 2005-06-10 01:36:37]
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MaverickM11
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RE: Crisis: Time To Annex Bolivia?

Sat Jun 11, 2005 12:15 am

I think Nigeria should annex Bolivia since their problems are similar--plenty of resources but STUPID policy decisions that squander the resources and screw everyone involved, especially the locals, who often demand said retarded policies.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
Pope
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RE: Crisis: Time To Annex Bolivia?

Sat Jun 11, 2005 1:09 am

Argentina has enough problems of its own. The last thing it needs to do is annex anyone else's problems.
Hypocrisy. It's the new black for liberals.
 
NUAir
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RE: Crisis: Time To Annex Bolivia?

Sat Jun 11, 2005 1:19 am

Quoting Derico (Reply 2):
And yeah I was not serious about the invasion part, but it just looked funny since oil is involved here.

Oil is different than Natural Gas... Brazil and Argentina would do just fine without Bolivian Oil (it accounts for a fraction of a % of total world production) but without Bolivian Natural Gas they and Chile will have some big problems.

Quoting Derico (Reply 2):
More and more conflicts over oil, just as predicted many years ago by so-called 'doomsayers'

Again, this doens't appear to be an oil related problem.

Quoting Derico (Reply 2):
The world is heading to an energy crunch that is causing us to lose the peace.

Peace is over-rated  Smile No big military contracts and jobs...
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MaverickM11
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RE: Crisis: Time To Annex Bolivia?

Sat Jun 11, 2005 2:00 am

Quoting NUair (Reply 5):
without Bolivian Natural Gas they and Chile will have some big problems.

And unfortunately La Paz' answer (not Santa Cruz) is to leave it in the ground unless the natural gas industry is nationalized, so not only is the western region going to remain poor, the potential beneficiaries of Bolivian natural gas are going to seek other sources and forget about Bolivia.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
Derico
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RE: Crisis: Time To Annex Bolivia?

Sat Jun 11, 2005 6:01 am

Quoting NUair (Reply 5):
Oil is different than Natural Gas... Brazil and Argentina would do just fine without Bolivian Oil (it accounts for a fraction of a % of total world production) but without Bolivian Natural Gas they and Chile will have some big problems.

Brazil imports oil from Bolivia not Argentina, and it's true Brazil could find other sources. Argentina does not have other sources of natural gas however, and with the winter demands rises substantially.

There is now a new president that is calling for new elections, but that solves almost nothing, the socio-historical and cultural, philosophical differences between different regions and groups of people within Bolivia still remains unresolved.
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PPVRA
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RE: Crisis: Time To Annex Bolivia?

Sat Jun 11, 2005 9:00 am

Quoting Derico (Reply 7):
Brazil imports oil from Bolivia not Argentina, and it's true Brazil could find other sources.

Nope, natural gas. There is a very long pipe line that connects Bolivia to Brazil.

Quoting Derico (Reply 7):
There is now a new president that is calling for new elections, but that solves almost nothing, the socio-historical and cultural, philosophical differences between different regions and groups of people within Bolivia still remains unresolved.

That's gonna take years to resolve, if it ever will.

PPVRA
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luisde8cd
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RE: Crisis: Time To Annex Bolivia?

Sat Jun 11, 2005 12:20 pm

I find it extremely unfair for the Bolivian people that 10,000 indians out of a population of 12 million can decide if a president remains in office.

Evo Morales lost the presidential race about a year ago, I think he got less than 25% of the votes. The bolivans don't like him, how come he and his gang of saboteurs can keep the whole country deprived of food and other resources? Where are the riot control police when it's needed?

This Evo Morales gets monthly paychecks from Caracas, courtesy of Mr. Chavez, so that he can give out money to these miners so that they wreak havoc across Bolivia.

As a fellow andean community citizen, I´m very worried about Bolivia's future. If it plunges into crisis, it will have an economic effect in the rest of the Andean countries.

I believe the best way to go is calling elections to elect a Constitutional Assembly to redact a new Constitution where the provinces that want autonomy get it, and the ones that want the gas industry nationalized, also get what they want.

Saludos desde Caracas,
Luis
 
MaverickM11
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RE: Crisis: Time To Annex Bolivia?

Sat Jun 11, 2005 12:28 pm

"I find it extremely unfair for the Bolivian people that 10,000 indians out of a population of 12 million can decide if a president remains in office.
"

Amen...but I'm not surprised at all.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
Arcano
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RE: Crisis: Time To Annex Bolivia?

Sun Jun 12, 2005 4:12 am

Estos argentinos... despues nos dicen a nosotros expansionistas!

Quoting NUair (Reply 5):
Chile will have some big problems.

As former Bolivian president said, not a single molecule of Bolivian gas will go to Chile. So we don't rely on Bolivia's resourses at all (although we gladly would).

I think Bolivia's situation is hard for sure, but neither Argentina nor Brazil are models in administration and solving political problems, so they had nothing to do with our common neighborhood.

Best for Bolivia...

Regards )(
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n229nw
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RE: Crisis: Time To Annex Bolivia?

Sun Jun 12, 2005 7:36 am

Derico,

Thanks for the informative post. One reason I like non-av is that glancing over it can be much more informative than reading the newspaper, and you get different angles...

Aside from the joke about invasion, what do you think is most likely to happen?
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Derico
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RE: Crisis: Time To Annex Bolivia?

Sun Jun 12, 2005 11:14 am

Quoting Arcano (Reply 11):
Estos argentinos... despues nos dicen a nosotros expansionistas!

Ha! I accept 'el chiste dentro de chiste', but it's no secret that in the southern departments of Bolivia, but specially Tarija, there have always been talks and rumours that they'd like to secede and join Argentina. I don't know what for or why, but as I understand it has to do with sentiments of the population.

Quoting N229nw (Reply 12):
Aside from the joke about invasion, what do you think is most likely to happen?

Well there is an interim president, and people are celebrating that things have calmed down, but I think it's a false sense of security. When the campaigns for the early elections begin, I think the problems will surface right back up.

Nothing has really been resolved. The Indian Movement still feels their people are second class citizens, Evo Morales still wants to proceed with his own plans for Bolivia, there is this other guy who wants an ouright 'Incan' Nation, The Santa Cruz region still wants autonomy/independence...

For this very moment though everything is on hold.
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