I simply find it amazing that the world seems to be fiddeling squat, while a whole country burns. In this I include the countries that should be most worried about the crisis in Bolivia, Bolivia's neighbors.
Since most people here seem to like the rest of the world, be ignorantly bliss about the situation, let us just say that Bolivia's president Mesa has resigned, there is no constitutional sucessor, and the congress has not even approved Mesa's resignation. Meanwhile, there are protests all over the country (except perhaps the Santa Cruz area) blocking roads, highways, and cities. Food is becoming scarce rather quickly. The population needs cannot be met at this point. There are no civil liberties. Governments from overseas are scrambling, literally, to get their citizens out.
At the same time, there is a Indigenous Movement led by a guy named Morales who wants a collectivistic system where all national resources fall in the hands of the 'indigenous' people of Bolivia. Simultaneously, there is a very strong movement in the Santa Cruz area of Bolivia that is seeking autonomy, and now increasingly outright independence from Bolivia. There are areas in the south of Bolivia, particularly around Tarija and among the Chapacos, that have always shown strong inclinations towards Argentina, even in joining the provinces. And to add spice to the fire, there are drug growing and dealing interests backing various sides at different times, making everything even more confusing and unpredictable.
Finally, Bolivia's energy reserves are at risk, and that puts both Brazil and Argentina, the motors of South America at risk of a sputter. Brazil has large oil investments in Bolivia and they import a lot of fuel from that country. Argentina with it's fast growing economy and booming energy needs has increasingly relied on Bolivian natural gas for industry and home heating consumption, specially now at the start of the Argentine winter. Any disruptions would cause a surge in prices.
So what should happen?
The best thing would be for a new president to be able to rally everyone around, but I find that hard to envision at this point, particularly because various interests (the indigenous movement, the Santa Cruz cessesionists, etc), have committed themselves to their causes and it seems unlikely they would back down after coming this far.
The next option would be an old style Coup D'Etat. The military takes over iron-grip style, all constitutional rights are gone, everyone goes home for supper. If strong enough, the military will squash all oposition. If not, then guerilla warfare would erupt.
Much further down the scale of ominousness, is outright civil war. Various regions seek independence, the indigenous groups seek their own nation, other para-military groups seek their own lands. Result: a bloody internal conflict, or a total breakup of the country.
The last option is mostly fantastic, but may perhaps be the most salvagable of them all: Brazil and Argentina invade Bolivia and peacekeep the place. Brazil takes over the Amazon north of the country, Argentina of the Southeast and the border regions (that always showed afinities towards the ARG anyways). The oil and gas resources are protected. And the Western parts of Bolivia are left alone, and the indigenous movements there are asked to come up with a plan on how to proceed next.
In any event, in South America, Europe, Asia, North America, etc, I've noticed that the Brazil-Argentina match has gotten more attention than the Bolivian situation. That's very, very scary...
Any thoughts at all, anyone??
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