TedTAce
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Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:17 am

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/9389157/
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NUAir
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:31 am



Hopfully it won't become any stronger...



Hurricane Rita, Jupiter style
"How Many Assholes we got on this ship?" - Lord Helmet
 
theCoz
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:37 am

D'ah! I just read about that.  scared 

Only 3 category 5 storms have ever hit the US mainland. Let's hope it weakens.


http://news.yahoo.com/fc/world/tropical_storms_and_hurricanes
 
texan
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:39 am

Pressure just dropped more, down to 914 mb, which makes it stronger than Andrew and Katrina. Hopefully it'll weaken some, but NOAA is reporting that the pressure is still dropping.

Texan
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AeroWesty
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:40 am

Quoting NUair (Reply 1):
Hopfully it won't become any stronger..

Katrina took 4 1/2 days to go from TS to Cat 5 (but made landfall between the two). Rita took about 30 hours to do the same, and hasn't peaked yet--one of the fastest accelerations in history.
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flydubai
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:40 am



flydubai
 
PPVRA
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:57 am

Are the waters there still warm? You'd think Katrina cooled things pretty well...

Cheers
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prosa
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:04 am

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 6):
Are the waters there still warm? You'd think Katrina cooled things pretty well...

Forecasts a couple of days ago said that cooler waters stirred up by Katrina would prevent Rita from strengthening beyond Category 3 or possibly a weak 4. Obviously, the forecasts were wrong.
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EA CO AS
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:06 am

Max sustained winds of 165mph and RISING. This is going to get ugly.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/GULFVS.JPG
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TPASXM787
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:10 am

I haven't seen the models but accounts have it coming ashore as a 3.

I'm guessing there are some upper level winds that are going to shear it and weaken the storm.
This is the Last Stop.
 
ouboy79
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:10 am

Quoting PROSA (Reply 7):
Forecasts a couple of days ago said that cooler waters stirred up by Katrina would prevent Rita from strengthening beyond Category 3 or possibly a weak 4. Obviously, the forecasts were wrong.

I believe Rita has stayed on the southern edge of the cooler waters from Katrina...I'll have to try to find the graphic that shows it best.

Forecast models that were posted on another board:

http://i15.photobucket.com/albums/a399/BamaStormChaser/RITAMODELS.png
 
Mexicana757
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:13 am

Terrible... I hope this hurricane doesn't cause as much damage like Katrina did.
 
N670UW
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:14 am

Quoting PPVRA (Reply 6):
Are the waters there still warm? You'd think Katrina cooled things pretty well...

The waters of the central Gulf of Mexico are very warm, thus Rita should maintain her strength or possibly even strengthen further. However, the waters are cooler over the western Gulf, so it's highly unlikely Rita will make landfall as a Category 5 (not to mention eyewall replacement cycles that will occur).



N670UW
 
ltbewr
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:27 am

Even if it drops to a 4 or strong 3, you still have to realize this storm will be bad, especially for all of the storm surge, flooding inland, and potential damage to the shipping, chemical and refining industry heavy in the Houston/Galveston area. Then there will be the damage and disruptions as to offshore oil and natural gas platforms. We better all start praying hard for the best and least harmful outcome.
 
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EA CO AS
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:33 am

Quoting N670UW (Reply 12):
The waters of the central Gulf of Mexico are very warm, thus Rita should maintain her strength or possibly even strengthen further. However, the waters are cooler over the western Gulf

According to these buoy readings, the water temperature is consistent from Rita's current location through to the Gulf coast of Texas:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/WestGulf.shtml



Click on the various buoys - you'll see the water temperature is just above 85F throughout the central and western Gulf.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
Brick
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:35 am

It is not likely to hit land as a category 5. Rita is already near it's peak and hurricanes of this strength don't stay category 5 for very long. It looks likely that it will be a category 3 during landfall...

From the NHC:

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

AND YET ANOTHER CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE THIS SEASON. DATA FROM BOTH
NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT
PRESSURE DROP TODAY AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 145 KNOTS. THIS IS
BASED ON A 700 MB WIND OF 161 KNOTS RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR
FORCE PLANE AND A RECALIBRATED SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 146 KNOTS.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNANIMOUSLY 140 KNOTS FROM ALL
AGENCIES. BECAUSE RITA WILL BE CROSSING AN AREA OF HIGH HEAT
CONTENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE
HURRICANE WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...THE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AND THE INTENSITY CHANGES WILL BE CONTROLLED
MAINLY BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND DECREASING HEAT CONTENT.
SOME WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BUT RITA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN AND RITA IS MOVING
WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
HAS BEEN FORCING RITA WESTWARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
CORE OF RITA IS BASICALLY MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST AND THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO EXPAND
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALREADY EXTEND ABOUT 150 N MI IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BECAUSE ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF THE WIND
FIELD IS ANTICIPATED...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
A noble spirit embiggens the smallest man...
 
N670UW
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:42 am

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 14):
According to these buoy readings, the water temperature is consistent from Rita's current location through to the Gulf coast of Texas:

I didn't check specific sea surface temperatures, just going on the NHC's 5 pm discussion:

BECAUSE RITA WILL BE CROSSING AN AREA OF HIGH HEAT
CONTENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE
HURRICANE WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...THE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AND THE INTENSITY CHANGES WILL BE CONTROLLED
MAINLY BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND DECREASING HEAT CONTENT.




N670UW
 
11Bravo
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:44 am

The most recent track from NHC has moved about 50-60 miles to the east. We are still several days out here, but any additional movement to the east could mean a direct hit on Galveston and Houston. I hope the track moves back west and Rita makes landfall halfway between Corpus Christi and Galveston or we could see some spectacular damage in the Houston area. The windfield from this storm is huge:

WhaleJets Rule!
 
mika
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:51 am

What's up with all these hurricanes in the US lately? I have seen strong storms in Florida before but this seems like something else..first Katrina and now this thing is coming in.

Let's hope for the best, that it reaches land at a scarsely populated place and that it won't be strong.
 
ouboy79
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 6:56 am

This buoy will be the nearest one to the circulation of Rita as it pass right over or just to the south.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

Latest Obs:

Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 10 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 21.7 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 16 sec
Average Period (APD): 9.8 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR): ESE ( 111 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.75 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.07 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 84.6 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.9 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 79.9 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 98.1 °F
 
Brick
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:03 am

Quoting Mika (Reply 18):
What's up with all these hurricanes in the US lately? I have seen strong storms in Florida before but this seems like something else..first Katrina and now this thing is coming in.

Hurricane seasons vary from year to year, even decade to decade. This is just an active season, that's all. Some years nothing happens in the gulf...
A noble spirit embiggens the smallest man...
 
ouboy79
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:10 am

Quoting Mika (Reply 18):
What's up with all these hurricanes in the US lately? I have seen strong storms in Florida before but this seems like something else..first Katrina and now this thing is coming in.

From what most people have said, we are in a typical cycle where we will see several years or decades of increase tropical activity and then it will be followed by an equal number of slow seasons. Mom Nature is all about the law of averages. Every extreme has to be balanced out some how. This extreme activity will be balanced out in the end.
 
KFLLCFII
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:16 am

Quoting Texan (Reply 3):
Pressure just dropped more, down to 914 mb, which makes it stronger than Andrew and Katrina.

You're half right. Andrew did only reach a minimum central pressure of 922 mb (higher than Rita), however Katrina went all the way down to 902 mb on the 8/28 4:00PM CDT advisory. Needless to say, Rita still has the potential to surpass this  ill 
"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
 
ouboy79
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:17 am

Here are some images that give a rough idea of SSTs in the gulf...





http://www.oceanweather.com/data/Gulf-of-Mexico/SST.GIF

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/gulfmex.c.gif
 
QuestAir
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:18 am

Quoting Ouboy79 (Reply 21):
This extreme activity will be balanced out in the end.

I certainly hope you're right, Ouboy79. I've seen those NOVA TV specials in school about hurricanes and global warming and such, so I hope this is just temporary...
'Do we carry rich people on our flights? Yes, I flew on one this morning and I�m very rich.' - Michael O'Leary
 
ouboy79
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:26 am

Quoting QuestAir (Reply 24):
I certainly hope you're right, Ouboy79. I've seen those NOVA TV specials in school about hurricanes and global warming and such, so I hope this is just temporary...

Well keep in mind, Earth may take 10-20 years to start the other side of the balancing effect...so we have a long way to go.

Rita down to 904 MB...5th strongest hurricane in Atlantic basin history.
 
mika
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:36 am

Pardon my ignorance but how far (in terms of time) is she from the mainland at this point? Surely one would believe that whatever size she gets out at sea would not necessarily mean that she will be that strong when she hits the coast. At least i hope so.
 
satx
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:51 am

Quoting QuestAir (Reply 24):
I certainly hope you're right, Ouboy79. I've seen those NOVA TV specials in school about hurricanes and global warming and such, so I hope this is just temporary...

Global warming doesn't exist (in America).
Open Season on Consumer Protections is Just Around the Corner...
 
Blackbird1331
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:56 am

The storm is about 650 miles from Texas moving at about 7miles per hour. Do the math, please.
Cameras shoot pictures. Guns shoot people. They have the guns.
 
NoUFO
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 7:58 am

Quoting Mika (Reply 26):
Pardon my ignorance but how far (in terms of time) is she from the mainland at this point?

According to the weather forecast, Rita will make landfall on Saturday - probably as a Cat 3 or maybe Cat 4 storm. So far, Rita's eye has missed land entirely, but a Cat 3 storm is nothing to joke about.
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AeroWesty
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:00 am

Quoting Mika (Reply 26):
how far (in terms of time) is she from the mainland at this point?

Landfall sometime late Friday/early Saturday Central time (-7 from CET).
International Homo of Mystery
 
ouboy79
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:01 am

Quoting Mika (Reply 26):
Pardon my ignorance but how far (in terms of time) is she from the mainland at this point? Surely one would believe that whatever size she gets out at sea would not necessarily mean that she will be that strong when she hits the coast. At least i hope so.

4PM CDT advisory had it 600 miles ESE of Galveston moving at 13 mph. So we are looking at 46 hours from landfall, which is going to probably come up some. Landfall continues to look like late Friday or early Saturday.
 
NWA742
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:04 am

In AUS we're getting ready for this, because either way it looks like we'll get a real taste of this storm.

I've got basic supplies in case we lose electricity and everything, and my shotgun ready to defend the house.

In town, many gas stations have already stopped selling gas, people are starting to panick because of it.

Gonna be a fun week.




-NWA742
Some people are like slinkies - not good for anything, but they bring a smile to your face when pushed down the stairs
 
NoUFO
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:17 am

Anyway: Good luck.



The message you were about to post is too short and probably not of any higher value ...
I support the right to arm bears
 
airlinelover
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 8:27 am

please delete.. meant to have a new thread

[Edited 2005-09-22 01:28:41]
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KFLLCFII
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 9:04 am

As of 6:50 PM CDT, pressure is now 898 mb, third-most intense ever in the Atlantic Basin. Wow.
"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
 
ouboy79
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 9:09 am

10 more til it beats Gilbert.
 
tbar220
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 9:29 am

Quoting Brick (Reply 15):
THIS IS
BASED ON A 700 MB WIND OF 161 KNOTS RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR
FORCE PLANE

Imagine being the pilot that has to measure those winds. I bet its surreal...

Ouboy,

You have some excellent sources for those websites. What are you using? I like them.
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TPASXM787
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 12:47 pm

Quoting Blackbird1331 (Reply 28):
The storm is about 650 miles from Texas moving at about 7miles per hour. Do the math, please.

this coming from someone who asked if there is a cat 6 hurricane?

read the saffir-simpson scale please
This is the Last Stop.
 
redngold
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:08 pm

Wondering if this storm can make a run against the most intense hurricanes of the Pacific Ocean...  scared 
Up, up and away!
 
baylorairbear
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:29 pm

Well, I'm beginning my evacuation now. Everyone I know is getting the hell out of Waco. We don't want to take any chances. I've already signed up for my Rita-Rations, filled my tank, and bought bottled water. I've also downloaded all of my favorite 10 sec. porn clips and looped them together into a feature film. I would go stay with Ted or ANC, but they are closer to the water than I am.

BAB
I'm just skipping stones...
 
texan
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 1:59 pm

We're looking at holding everything down here in Dallas, too. DAL is out of hangar space and is running short on ramp space. It's gonna be a sticky situation here, stocked up on water, canned food, etc. Good luck, y'all, and keep posting if you can. Take care

Texan
"I have always imagined that Paradise will be a kind of library."
 
Airlinerfreak
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 2:15 pm

Did I hear this right on the news...gusts of 215 miles an hour? Thats almost enough to whipe Texas off the map.....
 
baylorairbear
Posts: 2841
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 2:18 pm

Quoting Airlinerfreak (Reply 42):
Thats almost enough to whipe Texas off the map.....

No es posible!

BAB
I'm just skipping stones...
 
BO__einG
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:08 pm

yeah, lol you will need your 10sec loopy flicks of porn as you will be away for quite sometime.
This Rita is immense. I think despite knowing a whole lot more, we probably have absolutely no idea of how massive and powerful this Hurricane really is. You would have to be in its eye-wall to truly feel its wrath. One of the strongest forces nature can throw at ya. Ironically at the same time, you can also experience an errie moment of peace and tranqulity as you stand within the ever so graceful eye.
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flydubai
Posts: 157
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:07 am

She's weakening...

She probably hit land at cat 4

Should be OK.

flydubai
 
AeroWesty
Posts: 19551
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:11 am

Quoting Flydubai (Reply 45):
Should be OK.

Could still have major damage, and it's moving northeasterly now.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml

Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).
International Homo of Mystery
 
flydubai
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Joined: Wed Aug 17, 2005 4:35 am

RE: Rita A Cat 5

Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:21 am

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 46):
Could still have major damage, and it's moving northeasterly now.

Of course, but lets hope she weakens further to a cat 3 which surely would be sustainable.

She doesn't seem to be moving that much and it looks like she's moving north farther than east.  scratchchin 

flydubai
 
gkirk
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Fri Sep 23, 2005 3:23 am

Remember Katrina was a Cat 4 when she hit New Orleans.
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AeroWesty
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RE: Rita A Cat 5

Fri Sep 23, 2005 5:36 am

The latest models are showing that Rita will stall once it hits land, dropping anywhere from 1-2 feet of rain where it stalls before moving on.
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