ltbewr
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Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 9:19 pm

Is Global Warming why we are having Extreme warm winter? Almost all of the USA has had an extremely warm winter. Since late December, most days have seen tempatures 10-15 degrees F (+5-7C) above normal. In Texas and Oklahoma, extremely hot and dry conditions have led to many huge fires. Many places in the Southern half of the USA have had little snow/rain. Other places (like Washington and Oregon) have had many days of rain. Conditions have also been very warm and dry in much of Europe, especially in Spain, Southern France, Switzerland, Italy and other Southern countries of Europe. Glaciers have been melting in Switzerland and there has been little snow so far this season. Earlier this winter, we saw snow and icy conditions for a few days in the UK/Ireland.

Do you believe that global warming is the cause of this wacky weather?
 
flyingbabydoc
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 9:23 pm

The weather in Germany has been pretty much what is expected for this time of the year. I think most of these phenomena can be explained by normal variations (cyclical changes). Southern Europe seemed cold enough for me while watching the weather report this morning on TV.

I remember that the winter of 96/97 was brutally cold in Wisconsin, where I was living at that time; 97/98 was a really mild winter with almost no snow. Maybe it is just a pattern repeating itself.

Alex
Marriage is the art of turning a lover into a relative
 
wukka
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 9:40 pm

I recall hearing that this mild winter for the US was predicted by the Farmer's Alminac a year or two ago. They're generally more spot-on than the NWS as far as mid-to-long-term predictions. I'd love to know what kind of divine intervention they have to publish such accurate stuff year after year without the benefit of DOPPLERSUPERRADARSATELLITENET2006 since the 1800s.

Personally, I think it's just cyclical weather patterns and not imminent doom.

I can't speak for the rest of the world's current weather patterns, but from what I've read, we're at just about what was expected for this year. Warmer temps and higher rainfall.

It's a real pain in the ass for my manmade snow-skiing this year, living in the Midwest.
We can agree to disagree.
 
ANCFlyer
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 9:45 pm

We've got pretty normal weather for northern Alaska right now - we've been fairly normal all winter. Currently, -36.1F. That certainly isn't representative of any unusual warming in my book. . . . average snow fall, average temperatures . . . below average number of days with high winds (25mph or greater).
FOR THOSE THAT FOUGHT FOR IT, FREEDOM HAS A FLAVOR THE PROTECTED WILL NEVER KNOW OR UNDERSTAND
 
erikwilliam
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 9:48 pm

we haven´t had a real winter in 05, actually it was hot for the time of the year.
Now, as it´s summer, it´s hot, but it´s supposed to be, so.....

How long do you think before the ice caps melt down and we all die?
Dida, Cafu, Lucio, Roque Junior, Roberto Carlo, Emerson, Ze Roberto, Ronaldinho, Kaka, Adriano, Robinho, Ronaldo
 
AeroWesty
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 10:03 pm

When I was in NY in November, fruit trees were budding and roses were blooming two weeks prior to Thanksgiving, something long-term residents had never seen. People were afraid that a lot of trees and plants would die this winter because they'd not gone dormant before the heavy snows, but there hasn't been much of it to speak of, from what I've heard.

Here in Oregon, we're going through one storm after another, with another whopper set to come in tomorrow night.

One thing I read recently is that global warming causes a paradox of cooler/wetter days, and warmer nights in winter, since increased evaporation has created more clouds and more intense storms.

It *could* certainly be a cyclical pattern we've just not lived long enough to see from cycle-to-cycle, or we could just be really screwing up the environment. When I think about it all, I remember that the El Nino pattern was only known in folklore before it was scientifically documented only 20 years ago or so. Maybe there are others we've not discovered yet.
International Homo of Mystery
 
ANCFlyer
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 10:11 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 5):
When I think about it all, I remember that the El Nino pattern was only known in folklore before it was scientifically documented only 20 years ago or so.

Wasn't there also something called El Nina??? Maybe I've been up too long tonight but I recall that is was something exactly the opposite of El Nino - and had the opposite affect on weather patterns.

I'm still not completely sold on the Global Warming theory (  duck  ) , and believe it to be a cyclical thing. But as my friend Mr. Spock is fond of saying "There are always possibilities".

[Edited 2006-01-12 14:19:11]
FOR THOSE THAT FOUGHT FOR IT, FREEDOM HAS A FLAVOR THE PROTECTED WILL NEVER KNOW OR UNDERSTAND
 
AeroWesty
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 10:15 pm

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 6):
Wasn't there also something called El Nina???

Yup, it's the El Nino/La Nina pattern that waxes and wanes across the Pacific.
International Homo of Mystery
 
skidmarks
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 10:18 pm

Global Warming is a load of old bollocks! The weather goes in patterns and it's only because of easier communication thanks to the media that we are aware of weather situations around the rest of the world.

Sometimes the weather is bad in winter, sometimes it isnt. Thats the way it goes.

Andy  old 
Growing old is compulsory, growing up is optional
 
AeroWesty
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 10:22 pm

Quoting Skidmarks (Reply 8):
Sometimes the weather is bad in winter, sometimes it isnt. Thats the way it goes.

I really wanted that sentence to end with "and I've seen all 300 million of them!"  duck 
International Homo of Mystery
 
sunshine79
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 10:23 pm

My dad says global warning and hurricanes are to do with 'sending those people up there, into space' and interfering with the atmosphere. Dunno if it's true or not, but could have something to do with it.
Formerly alcregular, Why drive when you can fly?
 
Klaus
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 10:23 pm

Quoting Skidmarks (Reply 8):
Global Warming is a load of old bollocks!

It's not that simple either. Short-term weather patterns will always vary, but they appear to bump into the extremes with increasing frequency. And the rapid global melting of all (but one) glaciers is a sign that this is not just within the normal variation.
 
skidmarks
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 10:25 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 9):
I really wanted that sentence to end with "and I've seen all 300 million of them!"

Good response young man! We'll make a "Pe@rson" of you yet Big grin

Now, who's next?

Andy  old 
Growing old is compulsory, growing up is optional
 
scallar
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 10:27 pm

Quoting Skidmarks (Reply 8):
Global Warming is a load of old bollocks!

 checkmark 
Thank you, sir. I couldn't have said it better myself.

/Scallar
 
Klaus
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 10:29 pm

Quoting Sunshine79 (Reply 10):
My dad says global warning and hurricanes are to do with 'sending those people up there, into space' and interfering with the atmosphere. Dunno if it's true or not, but could have something to do with it.

"Disturbance of the atmosphere" as a factor is extremely unlikely. Our current spacecraft are so tiny and so few by comparison that they is practically certain to have no discernable influence, although their engine exhaust certainly contributes a bit to the pollution load. But any smaller city will contribute more pollution through heating and commuter traffic.
 
wukka
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 10:30 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 5):
When I think about it all, I remember that the El Nino pattern was only known in folklore before it was scientifically documented only 20 years ago or so. Maybe there are others we've not discovered yet.

That was kinda' where I was going with that. I don't know whether or not global warming / cooling is a huge issue or not. I don't think that anyone really does. Folklore and old sailor stories from the annals of history tells us about stuff that we think is insane, but then we experience it and put a scientific explanation on it that we (as humanity) didn't have access to so many years ago.

IMHO, the topic just seems to be jumping the gun. This current pattern is hardly "extreme". I firmly believe that Nature's balance will show us "extreme" when it's had enough of our crap, and give us some time to fix it.

If I'm wrong, I'll see ya' on the flipside after the floods and all.  Smile

Current science seems to be outrunning any sense of optimism... or maybe that's just the influx of "trashcience" (I think I just invented that word according to google -- combination of trash and science) we get forcefed as doom and gloom "news" every single freakin' day.
We can agree to disagree.
 
AeroWesty
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 10:33 pm

Quoting Skidmarks (Reply 12):
We'll make a "Pe@rson" of you yet

Just as long as he's not one of them varmint North Englanders!  Big grin
International Homo of Mystery
 
Klaus
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 10:33 pm

Quoting Scallar (Reply 13):
Thank you, sir. I couldn't have said it better myself.

That is deplorable...!
 
eilennaei
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 10:39 pm

In Finland last November was the warmest since the records began. An increase of 10 C in winter is expected in the next 100 years. And nobody said that was the end, could be a 30 C some day.
 
Klaus
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 10:43 pm

Quoting Wukka (Reply 15):
Current science seems to be outrunning any sense of optimism... or maybe that's just the influx of "trashcience" (I think I just invented that word according to google -- combination of trash and science) we get forcefed as doom and gloom "news" every single freakin' day.

Closing your eyes because reality is scary is not the solution. Science also helps finding ways out of the mess - we just need to take it seriously.
 
sunshine79
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 10:46 pm

Quoting Eilennaei (Reply 18):
And nobody said that was the end, could be a 30 C some day.

Just imagine what summer temperatures could be!
Formerly alcregular, Why drive when you can fly?
 
wukka
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 10:57 pm

Quoting Klaus (Reply 19):
Closing your eyes because reality is scary is not the solution. Science also helps finding ways out of the mess - we just need to take it seriously.

No dude... Scary sells, and you're the one that's buying.

I'm not.

My eyes are wide open. If you want to look at it from a selfish perspective, I'd rather be alive to see armageddon than die some boring old cancerous death.

I'm saying that I think that we'll get a dose of "REAL REALITY" before we get permanently fucked. Right now, we "scientists" just analyze every little change in every little thing and publish a nonsense paper on it proving anything that's desired to be proven, whether it be the .01 degree year to year climate change or the dB to vibration increase leading to failure on the bearings of the hard drive on your G4.

See... that's the biggest problem. We have what's called "PROOF", given in graphs, stacks of paperwork, and legalese that "PROVE" both sides of a diametrically opposed argument.

I choose to either research more on my own, or wait for a more substantial verdict to come in... if that be the four horsemen of the apocolypse riding over my head to make be believe it, then so be it... but don't you dare accuse me of my eyes being closed.
We can agree to disagree.
 
Klaus
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 11:20 pm

Quoting Wukka (Reply 21):
I'm saying that I think that we'll get a dose of "REAL REALITY" before we get permanently fucked. Right now, we "scientists" just analyze every little change in every little thing and publish a nonsense paper on it proving anything that's desired to be proven, whether it be the .01 degree year to year climate change or the dB to vibration increase leading to failure on the bearings of the hard drive on your G4.

It's a G5, and my harddrives have fluid bearings. See how unverified conjecture can lead you astray?

The scientific process can look confusing when one doesn't make a little effort to know the context for the various theories, claims and evidence.

Your proposal seems to be to just go with prejudice: Declare science void if it doesn't match what you want to hear.

In reality, science works by setting up theories in view of existing observations and then verifying whether and how far those theories are consistent a) with the entire body of existing evidence and b) with future observations about which the theory is making predictions.

There is no easy way around that, no short cut. But it does indeed make a lot of sense, and it works.

At this point, the existing theories do indeed match existing evidence relatively well (for a difficult field such as climatology) and they do indeed make predictions which are confirmed significantly more often than not by new observations.

Sorry, but simply declaring the complexity "confusing" as an excuse to ignore it all is not good enough.
 
md80fanatic
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 11:34 pm

I have been seeing wasps and bees all over the place in Austin, and this is supposed to be the coldest part of the year. Trees are budding and allergies are off the scale. Been here 25 years and havent ever seen this kind of warmth in January.

And I will repeat my observation from last year....which began with the "tsunami" event on Dec 26, 2004. I don't at all believe the story that an earthquake triggered it. It was said that the earthquake was so huge that it rang the earth like a "bell".....since when do bells ring themselves? I believe we were impacted from space by something fairly large and very fast moving. What else could cause a wave to kill people 5000 miles from the wave's origin? And since when have tsunami waves been omnidirectional (circular)?

Earthquakes and waves usually do not change atmospheric circulation patterns overnight, but this event did.
 
desertjets
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 11:37 pm

contrary to what one sees in the popular media, which continually does a disservice to real science (in part b/c journalists aren't scientists), there does seem to be a reasonable consensus that we are in a period of increasing global temperature. Ice core, tree ring, and other reliable longitudinal data points in that direction. The melting of glaciers in the artic is another fairly obvious sign that something on the marco scale is happening. What they do not really have a good grasp on is WHY it is happening; whether it be some long-term cycle the planet is going through, the result of increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, or a little of both.

The funny thing with global warming is that many localized or regionalized weather patterns may be effected in ways that seem counter-intutitive. Many scientists talk about how global warming may lead to lower overall temperatures in Europe over a period of several decades. Primarly due to the increased level of fresh water in the Atlantic, reducing the salienty of the water, and weakening the Gulf Stream; which has a major impact on western and northern Europe's climate despite its high latitude.


But to me, and most of the scientific community, global warming is real and it is happening as I type. The big question is how much influence a marco change is having on localized and regionalized weather patterns.
Stop drop and roll will not save you in hell. --- seen on a church marque in rural Virginia
 
AeroWesty
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 11:50 pm

Quoting Md80fanatic (Reply 23):
And since when have tsunami waves been omnidirectional (circular)?

Omnidirectional would assume there was equal wave force in every direction. That's not how these waves occurred. They were focussed mainly to the West, with a slightly lesser wave to the East, and relatively little North and South, especially North. This was modelled by the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology in Japan, with a number of websites hosting their computer simulation of the quake and resulting tsunami.
International Homo of Mystery
 
Klaus
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Thu Jan 12, 2006 11:51 pm

Quoting Md80fanatic (Reply 23):
I have been seeing wasps and bees all over the place in Austin, and this is supposed to be the coldest part of the year. Trees are budding and allergies are off the scale. Been here 25 years and havent ever seen this kind of warmth in January.

It's a possibility within the normal variations - relevant is only a statistically significant elevation of such events within a greater observation span.

Quoting Md80fanatic (Reply 23):
I don't at all believe the story that an earthquake triggered it.

The earthquake did in fact happen exactly in the time frame before the first tsunami front hit the nearest shores, the sea floor is broken at exactly the location consistent with the delay from earthquake to tsunami and no other cause is plausible.

Quoting Md80fanatic (Reply 23):
It was said that the earthquake was so huge that it rang the earth like a "bell".....since when do bells ring themselves?

If they consist of slow-moving, massive and occasionally sticking tectonic plates, they absolutely do!

Quoting Md80fanatic (Reply 23):
I believe we were impacted from space by something fairly large and very fast moving.

No evidence of such an event at that time. The various military monitoring stations would have picked it up. They routinely have to make the distinction between meteors and incoming ICBMs.

Quoting Md80fanatic (Reply 23):
What else could cause a wave to kill people 5000 miles from the wave's origin?

Nothing. There was an sub-oceanic earthquake which is the only plausible explanation.

Quoting Md80fanatic (Reply 23):
And since when have tsunami waves been omnidirectional (circular)?

They've always been! If the earthquake happens along a fault line, the circular waves overlay to form linear fronts at the center, but at the edges the fronts remain circular. It is a well-known fact (just refer to the chilean quake in the 1960s) that tsunamis usually affect all shores around the ocean in which they occur.

Quoting Md80fanatic (Reply 23):
Earthquakes and waves usually do not change atmospheric circulation patterns overnight, but this event did.

No. It did not to any immediately discernible extent. Temporal correlation may be significant for the human brain, but it does not necessarily prove a cause-effect relationship although it can be an indication. Which would need additional evidence, with in this case does not exist.
 
777236ER
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Fri Jan 13, 2006 3:26 am

Quoting Wukka (Reply 21):
We have what's called "PROOF", given in graphs, stacks of paperwork, and legalese that "PROVE" both sides of a diametrically opposed argument.

No actually, you don't. You can't prove any scientific theory.
Your bone's got a little machine
 
Logan22L
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Fri Jan 13, 2006 3:47 am

As paradoxical as it sounds, global warming is not something that manifests itself in perceptible changes in average temperatures. Global warming is something that is seen in an overall average increase of the Earth's temperature by only a few degrees at most. What results is the potential for unusual weather patterns, changes in ocean levels, etc.

So, if your winter has been 10 degrees warmer than usual, that is not a direct observation of glaobal warming per se. It may, however, be a result of the changes in weather patterns that global warming may produce. In fact, global warming may result in colder than average temperatures for parts of the Earth at times.

I have to say that as an Environmental Scientist, I have seen much data, and I do believe that the Earth is warming. Whether as part of a natural trend or as a result of increased CO2 production - well, I have my theories, and I've posted them here many times. I still reserve final judgement until I have had more data to look at.
"The deeper you go, the higher you fly. The higher you fly, the deeper you go."
 
flymia
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Fri Jan 13, 2006 4:26 am

Its not global warming. I am sick of this stuff. Everytime there is an non-normal weather period people blame it on global warming. The weather is always changing, the earths climate is always changing. We live on a unstable planet. Some scientist say we are in a period of calm weather and the weather can get much worse.
"It was just four of us on the flight deck, trying to do our job" (Captain Al Haynes)
 
Nordair
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Fri Jan 13, 2006 5:20 am

As Drew Carey once said, "F**k Global Warming. I want heat NOW."
"It is never legitimate to use the words of scripture to promote a loveless agenda." - Right Rev. Dr. Peter Short
 
Logan22L
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Fri Jan 13, 2006 6:02 am

Quoting FlyMIA (Reply 29):
Its not global warming.

Thank you for your scientific analysis of a scientific question.  Yeah sure
"The deeper you go, the higher you fly. The higher you fly, the deeper you go."
 
DLPMMM
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Fri Jan 13, 2006 10:49 am

Quoting Klaus (Reply 22):
At this point, the existing theories do indeed match existing evidence relatively well (for a difficult field such as climatology) and they do indeed make predictions which are confirmed significantly more often than not by new observations.

Sorry Klaus, but the current "theories' are merely mathmatical curve matching exercises with extrapolations, and have not been at all accurate in predicting anything.

The same type of "science" in the 1970's told us that we would all be starving now from the "population explosion". According to the 1990's "theories" we should all be blind and with skin cancer because of the hole in the ozone layer (that has disappeared).

It is all just a money grab by the researchers. If they find there is no problem, they get no more funding from the politicians, if they preach doom and gloom, their funding increases.

I deal with research academics every day. The worst are the government and university funded ones. It has gone from "publish or parish" to "get grants or get out"
 
DLPMMM
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Fri Jan 13, 2006 11:02 am

This is not to say that the Earth is not getting warmer. The Earth is always getting either warmer or colder. It was obviously much colder during all of the ice ages. It has also been much warmer. A good example of the earth being much warmer was the during the medieval warm period (12th century?) when England was make very nice wines from it's vineyards and the population increased around the world as agriculture boomed. This was all well before the industrial revolution.

The point is that given man's CO2 and other atmospheric outputs verses the natural output of these gasses by "Mother Earth", our output is merely statistical noise.
 
Klaus
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Fri Jan 13, 2006 11:05 am

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 32):
Sorry Klaus, but the current "theories' are merely mathmatical curve matching exercises with extrapolations, and have not been at all accurate in predicting anything.

Incorrect. The models have remained valid and consistent with incoming finds, matching the trends actually observed. In a complex system like global climate quantitative predictions are still difficult, but the qualitative interconnections are being confirmed.

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 32):
The same type of "science" in the 1970's told us that we would all be starving now from the "population explosion". According to the 1990's "theories" we should all be blind and with skin cancer because of the hole in the ozone layer (that has disappeared).

Again incorrect - the "ozone hole" is larger than ever, it is just stagnating in its growth due to countermeasures that have been taken. It will take decades before it may actually vanish or at least shrink to a negligible size.

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 32):
It is all just a money grab by the researchers.

Few of them manage to melt all glaciers globally just to eke out another few thousand bucks or €uro in public funding!  crazy 
 
Klaus
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Fri Jan 13, 2006 11:32 am

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 33):
The point is that given man's CO2 and other atmospheric outputs verses the natural output of these gasses by "Mother Earth", our output is merely statistical noise.

Only during catastrophic eruptions which would pretty much create the kind of disastrous scenario we're attempting to avoid! We'd be talking about massive supervolcanoes, not your run-off-the-mill standard eruption every few hundred or thousand years.

During the current "peace time", human-related emissions are far larger. Hence the massive increase of the CO2 concentration only during the past few centuries, well-correlated to human activities.

From Carbon dioxide - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:

Quote:
The initial carbon dioxide in the atmosphere of the young Earth was produced by volcanic activity; this was essential for a warm and stable climate conducive to life. Volcanic activity now releases about 130 to 230 teragrams (145 million to 255 million short tons) of carbon dioxide each year. Volcanic releases are about 1% of the amount which is released by human activities.
 
solarix
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Fri Jan 13, 2006 12:02 pm

Remember Y2K and how everyone thought the world would end at 12:00AM in the year 2000.

Let's not get started with another paranoia scam called Global Warming.

It's just another way for people to scam us so they can get rich.
Bong Hits 4 Jesus
 
KSYR
Posts: 562
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Fri Jan 13, 2006 12:46 pm

People,

Sometimes places have brutal, cold, snowy winters. Sometimes they have mild winters. That is a fact of life, and has been throughout recorded history.

Don't get too worked up about it. Its not a big deal; the ice caps aren't going to melt instantly and there isn't going to be a giant tidal wave that destroys Manhattan. Go return "The Day After Tomorrow" to the video store and get on with life. There are plenty of better things to worry about.

Does global warming exist? That's up for debate. But leave the pondering to the experts and do something worthwhile with your time instead.
 
ltbewr
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Fri Jan 13, 2006 7:56 pm

My concern is that the exponential growth in 'greenhouse gases' accumulating over time is compounding natural cycles of weather. It may be aggraving the El Nino/El Nina cycles for example. I am aware of natural cycles of about 30 years that affect hurricane and tropical storms with long cycles of high activity and lower activity, made worse by more coastal populations and development. I am aware of draught/rain cycles, such as for example, the 'dust bowl' of the central USA in the 1930's when there was a severe darught compounded by may years of bad framing practices and economic depression.
While we have had no record highs for any given day this winter in the Northeast, the sustained several weeks of warmer than average temps is deeply concerning. There is something unnatural about it and one has to wonder if we are compounding natural cycles to the point of no return and devestating concenquences. So yes, I do believe that humans are a part of the 'global warming' problem.
 
DLPMMM
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RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Sat Jan 14, 2006 4:26 am

Quoting Klaus (Reply 35):
Only during catastrophic eruptions which would pretty much create the kind of disastrous scenario we're attempting to avoid! We'd be talking about massive supervolcanoes, not your run-off-the-mill standard eruption every few hundred or thousand years.

During the current "peace time", human-related emissions are far larger. Hence the massive increase of the CO2 concentration only during the past few centuries, well-correlated to human activities.

Klaus,

Who said that volcanoes are the cause?

Here is a breakdown of natural verses man made greenhouse gasses:

http://www.clearlight.com/~mhieb/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html

As I said, human caused greenhouse gasses are just noise in the system.
 
wukka
Posts: 884
Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2005 1:08 pm

RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Sat Jan 14, 2006 9:37 pm

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 27):
Quoting Wukka (Reply 21):
We have what's called "PROOF", given in graphs, stacks of paperwork, and legalese that "PROVE" both sides of a diametrically opposed argument.

No actually, you don't. You can't prove any scientific theory.

I hope that you were using this as an opportunity to reiterate my statement; otherwise you completely missed the obvious use of quotations and capitalization of variations of the word "proof" in my comment... not to mention the entire concept of "diametric".
We can agree to disagree.
 
Klaus
Posts: 20578
Joined: Wed Jul 11, 2001 7:41 am

RE: Global Warming Why Extreme Warm Winter?

Sun Jan 15, 2006 1:57 pm

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 39):
Who said that volcanoes are the cause?

When you're claiming "the planet" as the main source, that's the obvious conclusion. It's also a popular misconception.

When you're talking about anything else, you'd need to come up with a plausible theory why the recent temperature increase just happens to coincide with the substantial anthopogenic increase in the atmosphere's concentration of carbondioxide and other greenhouse gases.

Quoting DLPMMM (Reply 39):
As I said, human caused greenhouse gasses are just noise in the system.

The theory you've referred to is simply invalid, since it completely ignores the actual behaviour and effects of water vapour in the atmosphere.

As every fourth-grader should be aware of, water vapour is the basis for cloud formation. And cloud cover reflects incoming sunlight, which leads to a cooling effect - a limiting negative feedback effect.

If that wasn't the case, the earth would simply continue to heat up in a positive feedback loop until it would reach Venus-like levels in a few years or centuries.

If, however, the balance point between the two effects is shifted by other factors - such as the massive change in the other greenhouse gases we're currently observing - the buffering and stabilizing effect of water vapour may not be enough to compensate. Quite to the contrary, water vapour can actually act as an amplifier of the nominally smaller influence of the other gases.

These effects are not verified yet to the extent we'd need them to be, but one thing is absolutely certain: With the shift obviously under way and accelerating, complacency is definitely the wrong strategy!

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