AeroWesty
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Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 1:41 am

Over the course of the war in Iraq, I've listened to what both sides of what the government and public opinion have to say. I did not support the invasion, but I have always held the firm belief that if you go in and make a mess, it's your responsibility to clean it up, and given my support to making Iraq a better place before we leave, whatever the cost.

There's been several posts and threads on this board regarding the good things going on in Iraq, that have been good to hear. Those posts usually use the basis of "if you listened to the troops on the ground, you'd see what's really happening."

Now I'm confused a bit. A poll released on Tuesday states that 1/4 of the troops in Iraq want an immediate withdrawal, and the balance want the U.S. to be out within a year. When Rep. Murtha called for withdrawal, he was branded a coward on the House floor.

Is the poll inaccurate? Have we crossed a line where we're now doing more harm than good, and should withdraw before more harm is done? Is this what our troops are now telling us?

I ask these questions because my faith in our capability to make Iraq a better place is now on shaky ground, having heard the opinions of our troops who are there.

A couple of the many news stories on the poll:

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/pro...p?feed=FT&Date=20060301&ID=5543773

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/a63c6b8c-a8b4-11da-aeeb-0000779e2340.html

Some of the opinions expressed during the poll are disturbing:

Seventy-two per cent said the US should withdraw within 12 months, and 29 per cent said they should pull out immediately.

[...]

Although Mr Bush has acknowledged that Iraq played no role in September 11, 85 per cent of the troops said the US mission was mainly "to retaliate for Saddam's role in the 9/11 attacks".


Then this surprise at the end (although I'm not sure how one could have a re-enlistment above 100%):

... the rate at which troops who have fulfilled their committment to the military re-enlist - were above 100 per cent for most units, suggesting that troops were not disaffected by the mission in Iraq.

The disparity I can't reconcile is why there's such a high retention rate if the boots want us to leave, and it can only lead me to believe that it's a combination of a healthy retention package and their belief we're there to retaliate for 9/11. I hope I'm wrong about that, and am open to other theories.
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windshear
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 1:52 am

I couldn't see what Denmark needed to do there anyhoo, so... I don't how ever think, that we should leave the US/UK troops behind, although our 500 max troops will do that much a diference  Smile

I fully understand why they are not that happy about staying in Iraq.

Boaz.
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jaysit
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 1:53 am

They're tired and fed up.

And who can blame them.

Although I really can't imagine what would happen to Iraq were we to withdraw even within a year. For one, its highly unlikely that the Wolfowitz doctrine will have worked as a pro-US government is an iffy post-withdrawal situation at best. Opposed as I was to this endeavor, especially because of the dubious ideology and trumped-up reasons for it, leaving Iraq in a quagmire would undermine US interests greatly in the middle east. We would essentially leave Iraq in a state far more dangerous to the world and the US, than what existed before. I don't think an early withdrawal is even in the cards right now. You can't just leave a cake in the oven and walk away...
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Klaus
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 1:54 am

Quote:
Although Mr Bush has acknowledged that Iraq played no role in September 11, 85 per cent of the troops said the US mission was mainly "to retaliate for Saddam's role in the 9/11 attacks"

It is really disturbing to see such a high level of misinformation among the ranks - the propaganda has worked overproportionally among them, it appears...!
 
ANCFlyer
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 2:02 am

Quoting AeroWesty (Thread starter):
... the rate at which troops who have fulfilled their committment to the military re-enlist - were above 100 per cent for most units, suggesting that troops were not disaffected by the mission in Iraq.

This one is realtively easy . . . re-enlistments. (I once had an additional duty as a Unit Reenlistment NCO).

When a soldier is within 120 days of the end of their time in service, the reenlistment folks meet with him/her (gonna use him for the rest of this note). Once that same soldier gets to within 90 days, his name goes on an active reenlistment list. Percentages of reenlistments are counted off that list. But a soldier CAN reenlist well in advance of that window. So, if you get 100% of those soldiers reenlisting that are on the active list, plus 10% of the soldiers that are eligible but outside the window, you have 110%. Seems simple, eh?

How many soldiers were polled? I missed that or it wasn't there. That would certainly give a broader perspective on this.

Quoting AeroWesty (Thread starter):
Those posts usually use the basis of "if you listened to the troops on the ground, you'd see what's really happening."

And that is correct. The fact the poll states 1/4 of the troops believe an immediate withdrawal is warranted doesn't cloud the fact, nor excuse, the lack of reporting the full perspective of what occurs there. Two entirely different animals.

A soldier might think it's time to pull out immediately because he thinks the job is done, they've done good things, they've accomplished the mission.

Another may think it's time to pull out immediately because of entirely the opposite perspective.

It's all in the context of what the soldier is thinking. Simply polling them, asking "When should we leave" doesn't give a proper perspective. A followon question: "and why" would add weight to the issue.

As for the poll results versus the high retention rate . . . .
As I said above, these soldiers may in fact think it's time to go as they've done all that can be done. it's not a refletion on their desire to continue their service, only their opinion on the mission.

I'm not dismissing the poll at all . . . in fact, I was surprised at the totals.

I hope the Pentagon isn't dismissing it either . . . alas, my faith in Dumsfeld leads me to think otherwise.
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gunsontheroof
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 2:11 am

And the plot thickens...

I'm sure that a broader survey would produce lower numbers, but this has been the prevailing sentiment from most people I've talked to who have recently returned from Iraq. That said, the United States and Great Britain are responsible for the current situation there, and until some degree of order can be established, withdrawl is out of the question.

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AeroWesty
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 2:11 am

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 2):
I don't think an early withdrawal is even in the cards right now. You can't just leave a cake in the oven and walk away.

Me either, and I've never even considered that option, truth be told. I am concerned that with troops not fully knowing their mission, it's causing something we don't want to happen come to fruition.

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 4):
How many soldiers were polled? I missed that or it wasn't there. That would certainly give a broader perspective on this.

In the first link:

John Zogby, president of Zogby International, said US commanders in Iraq unofficially gave approval for the poll of 944 respondents to take place. It took place before last week's bombing of the Golden Mosque in Samarra.

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 4):
So, if you get 100% of those soldiers reenlisting that are on the active list, plus 10% of the soldiers that are eligible but outside the window, you have 110%.

LOL, that was easy.  Wink

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 4):
A soldier might think it's time to pull out immediately because he thinks the job is done, they've done good things, they've accomplished the mission.

That's where I find the 85% saying we're there to retaliate, not bring about a better Iraq, to be most disturbing.
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gunsontheroof
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 2:16 am

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 6):
That's where I find the 85% saying we're there to retaliate, not bring about a better Iraq, to be most disturbing.

Building a better Iraq has only been the primary reason for the invasion since the WMD thing didn't pan out.
 
ANCFlyer
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 2:20 am

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 6):
John Zogby, president of Zogby International, said US commanders in Iraq unofficially gave approval for the poll of 944 respondents to take place. It took place before last week's bombing of the Golden Mosque in Samarra.

 Embarrassment

Let me ask this: With 140,000 troops in place, does anyone think asked 944 of them and getting a solid answer, think this is representative of the total force? I'd like to see 50,000 of them polled . . .

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 2):
I don't think an early withdrawal is even in the cards right now. You can't just leave a cake in the oven and walk away...

Agreed. As you mentioned, an early withdrawal would, IMO, do a lot more harm than good . . . the job isn't finished yet. And as I've said before, there will a sizeable force in Iraq for another 8-10 years. Not, mind you, 140,000 troops, but at least a Division sized element (20,000 including support troops).
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AeroWesty
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 2:30 am

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 8):
Let me ask this: With 140,000 troops in place, does anyone think asked 944 of them and getting a solid answer, think this is representative of the total force?

Well of course every poll is done within a tolerance level, and this one is a rare look at a defined group that isn't often polled. I'd like to see higher numbers too, but understand the process.
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mt99
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 2:40 am

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 8):
Let me ask this: With 140,000 troops in place, does anyone think asked 944 of them and getting a solid answer, think this is representative of the total force? I'd like to see 50,000 of them polled . . .

944 is not a random number. There are polling techniques used to determine sample size based on desired confidence, and margin of error.

There is a curve that says, the more people you poll the "less different" the average response will become. Point is - if you poll 944 or 135,000, the answer will be very very close.

It is better to as to see the exact questionnaire that was used, rather than question number respondant. This number is indeed a "solid" number based on "solid" mathematics. It all hinges on the exact wording of the question.

[Edited 2006-03-01 18:42:34]
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ANCFlyer
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 2:40 am

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 9):
Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 8):
Let me ask this: With 140,000 troops in place, does anyone think asked 944 of them and getting a solid answer, think this is representative of the total force?

Well of course every poll is done within a tolerance level, and this one is a rare look at a defined group that isn't often polled. I'd like to see higher numbers too, but understand the process.

I'd also like to know if these 944 were in the same unit or area of Iraq . . . several issues there:

Same Unit (Unit in this I mean Brigade or smaller): Indicates to me a leadership problem on many levels. Not the least of which is what I percieve to be bad morale, midguided reason for being there.

Same area (say, Sunni Triangle) and Different Unit: Indicates to me a that they (the troops) are likely to have been more accurately polled, in that it's a broader perspective, but - only in that area of the country. And we know the Sunni Triangle is no picnic.

On a Broader Scale: Again, indicative of a problem, but based on the total number of troops in theater, and the low number of soldiers polled, the results become suspect once again.
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mt99
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 2:44 am

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 11):
On a Broader Scale: Again, indicative of a problem, but based on the total number of troops in theater, and the low number of soldiers polled, the results become suspect once again.

No they dont. See above.
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AeroWesty
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 2:48 am

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 11):
I'd also like to know if these 944 were in the same unit or area of Iraq . . . several issues there:

According to Zogby, if they told us, they'd have to kill us, but the polling does appear to be across several branches of the service, across a wide area.

Some interesting things about how the poll was conducted here:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1075

The survey included 944 military respondents interviewed at several undisclosed locations throughout Iraq. The names of the specific locations and specific personnel who conducted the survey are being withheld for security purposes. Surveys were conducted face-to-face using random sampling techniques. The margin of error for the survey, conducted Jan. 18 through Feb. 14, 2006, is +/- 3.3 percentage points.
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Gary2880
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 2:52 am

Quoting Klaus (Reply 3):
It is really disturbing to see such a high level of misinformation among the ranks - the propaganda has worked overproportionally among them, it appears...!

it is indeed worrying, with only 944 polled it offers some encouragement. but it would depend how many of the other 140,000 have been so brainwashed as to think like that 85%. it is a shame that not only were we lied to they lied to the people who have to give their lives and may die believing a lie. think you need to give your government a kick up the pants for that.

very shameful indeed.
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ANCFlyer
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 3:03 am

Quoting Gary2880 (Reply 14):
think you need to give your government a kick up the pants for that.

Why should Klaus kick the German Gov't in the pants for this poll?  silly 

Quoting Mt99 (Reply 10):
944 is not a random number. There are polling techniques used to determine sample size based on desired confidence, and margin of error.



Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 13):
The survey included 944 military respondents interviewed at several undisclosed locations throughout Iraq. The names of the specific locations and specific personnel who conducted the survey are being withheld for security purposes. Surveys were conducted face-to-face using random sampling techniques. The margin of error for the survey, conducted Jan. 18 through Feb. 14, 2006, is +/- 3.3 percentage points.

Then like I said, obviously there are problems . . . problems we aren't seeing. I'd like to see the questions asked. I'd like to know the demographics of the troops asked. Were those troops fresh from the US? Had they been there 12-16 months? What are their ranks? What are their jobs. All of this will affect the results . . . a worn out infantryman, having been in country 12-13-14 months will obviously have a different answer than a Unit Supply Clerk sitting behind a desk fresh from PoDunk, Kentucky who will have a different answer than say, our friend and fellow A-Netter UH60FtRucker who flies over the crap every day . . .

I maintain that the poll is skewed in many directions. I do not dismiss it, I simply think it is incomplete. "Conducting a Poll 101" notwithstanding, I don't think they sampled enough troops. Furthermore, without knowing where the samples were taken, it lends to more inaccuracies. Were these polls conducted in Bahgdad where shit blows up every day? Were they conducted along the Iraq/Kuwaiti border where some bored Motor Sergeant watches convoy after convoy after convoy and may be under the impression that things are relatively normal and quiet now??? Way too many variables for it to be considered accurate.
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AeroWesty
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 3:14 am

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 15):
Were those troops fresh from the US? Had they been there 12-16 months? What are their ranks? What are their jobs. All of this will affect the results

I do actually agree with your sentiments about how the poll was conducted, that's the first thing I question when I look at a set of numbers. It seems to be wide-ranging, but everything comes down to "whom do you trust?"

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 15):
Then like I said, obviously there are problems . . . problems we aren't seeing.

And that's what I'm wondering. What is it we aren't seeing, and are there problems we can correct, or is it too late. It would seem to me that having a defined purpose clearly laid out to our forces abroad would bring about the desired solution faster. Even "we have to prevent civil war" instead of "to retaliate for 9/11" would be cause for different behavior, I would think.
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AeroWesty
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 3:39 am

Something more about how the polling was conducted that I somehow missed on the first reading of the link at Zogby:

Three quarters of the troops had served multiple tours and had a longer exposure to the conflict: 26% were on their first tour of duty, 45% were on their second tour, and 29% were in Iraq for a third time or more.

There's a bit more explanation of the polling results in a piece by John Zogby at tompaine.com today:

http://www.tompaine.com/articles/200...03/01/a_letter_from_the_troops.php

This bit was interesting:

To control the insurgency, a majority of respondents (53 percent) said the U.S. should double both the number of troops and bombing missions, an option absolutely no one back in Washington is considering.

Reservists were most enthusiastic about using bombing runs and a doubling of ground troops to counter the enemy, with 70 percent agreeing that would work to control the insurgency. Among regular Army respondents, 48 percent favored more troops and bombing, and 47 percent of Marines agreed. However, 36 percent of Marines said they were uncertain that strategy would work, compared to just 9 percent of regular Army, 6 percent of National Guard respondents, and 2 percent of reservists who said they were not sure.
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ANCFlyer
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 3:53 am

I would love to see the questions . . . .

http://www.tompaine.com/articles/200...03/01/a_letter_from_the_troops.php

Something that catches my eye here . . .

The poll, conducted in conjunction with Le Moyne College’s Center for Peace and Global Studies,

Did the Center for Peace and Global Studies commission the poll and have Zogby International Conduct it . . . using questions generated by the Center? A poll is only as good as it's questions and audience. While Zogby is a reasonably respected, bipartisan organization - what about the Center? And Zogby undoubtedly got paid to execute the poll . . . they will certainly ask what they are told to ask. How bi-partisan and independent can they be?

I'm not trying to be a smart ass, only to provide another point of view . . . just like any poll, the questions asked - and the context in whichthey are asked - will determine the answer . . . regardless of how bi-partisan or independent the poll purports to be.

Now, here's something I'm concerned about:

The troops have drawn different conclusions about fellow citizens back home. Asked why they think some Americans favor rapid U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq, 37 percent of troops serving there said those Americans are unpatriotic, while 20 percent believe people back home don’t believe a continued occupation will work. Another 16 percent said they believe those favoring a quick withdrawal do so because they oppose the use of the military in a pre-emptive war, while 15 percent said they do not believe those Americans understand the need for the U.S. troops in Iraq.

At 55 percent, reservists serving in Iraq were most likely to see those back home as unpatriotic for wanting a rapid withdrawal, while 45 percent of Marines and 33 percent of members of the regular Army agreed.


I don't consider non-support for this war as unpatriotic, and I'm disturbed that so many soldier think it is . . . but once again, what was the question asked that provided this answer. Was it a multiple choice? Did it ask: "Of the people in the States that oppose the war, you say they are. . . " A) Unpatriotic; B) Oppose the Military; C) Don't Support the Troops; D) All of the Above. See . . . it's all in the context of the question and how it's asked, and what the possible answers could be. I just pulled that quickly outta my ass (as you can tell) and it could be a valid poll question . . .

I'd like to see the poll itself.
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AeroWesty
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 4:03 am

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 18):
Did the Center for Peace and Global Studies commission the poll and have Zogby International Conduct it . . . using questions generated by the Center?

I dug a little deeper, and Le Moyne appears to be a Jesuit college, if that means anything. They have a similar press release on their website, but not the actual questions used, that I've been able to find.

http://www.lemoyne.edu/index.asp
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ANCFlyer
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 4:08 am

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 19):
They have a similar press release on their website, but not the actual questions used,

All the more, personally, I'm suspect of the poll and the questions. The more I read into this, the more I'm prepared to wave the  redflag  on a few things.

Really want to see the questions . . . .
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mt99
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 4:29 am

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 15):
I don't think they sampled enough troops

False! They did. Understand. 944 is correct.

You can doubt the questions, intent, population, polling methods, timing etc. but 944 IS a correct sample number
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ANCFlyer
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 5:12 am

Quoting Mt99 (Reply 21):
False! They did. Understand. 944 is correct.

You can doubt the questions, intent, population, polling methods, timing etc. but 944 IS a correct sample number

I heard you the first time.

I disagree with you. You'll have to live with that. Or not.

. . . . .

I want to see the questions.

I e-mailed the College requesting a copy of the questions on the poll. Let's see if I a) get a positive answer; b) get a negative answer or c) get no answer.
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mt99
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 5:15 am

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 22):
I heard you the first time.

I disagree with you. You'll have to live with that. Or not.

You also have to live with the fact that you are wrong. I can prove it if you want me to.
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ANCFlyer
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 5:23 am

Quoting Mt99 (Reply 23):
You also have to live with the fact that you are wrong. I can prove it if you want me to.

Won't be the first time I'm wrong . . . and I still disagree . . . if you feel the need to "prove" it, have at it. But, if said proof is one of your theories not something I can "put a finger on" then please refrain. Otherwise, it'd be interesting - go for it.

Too many variables in the poll, and until I see the questions, if I ever do, I'm suspect of it's accuracy for a whole host of reasons, not the least of which is the number of troops polled.
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 5:38 am

I get sick of polls and statistics. They are extremely easy to manipulate depending on just who is asking the question. Good recent example of that was the so-called Orange Revolution in the Ukraine. Turns out that the US/EU had a lot to do with the "opinion polls" before hand. Newsweek ran a fairly lengthy piece on it a while ago.
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mt99
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 5:39 am

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 24):
Won't be the first time I'm wrong . . . and I still disagree . . . if you feel the need to "prove" it, have at it. But, if said proof is one of your theories not something I can "put a finger on" then please refrain. Otherwise, it'd be interesting - go for it.

Im sure its not the first time you are wrong.

The proof is not "my" theory. I didn't invent it.

What can "you put a finger on" ? Lets try this.

You seem to suggest that the margin of error is inversely proportional to the number of respondants. Correct?

The margin of error is listed as +/- 3%.

Assuming a linear relationship (which its not btw - but lets assume so we can keep you "finger" in it) - doubling the sample size, halfs the margin.

So:

944 yields +/- 3%
1888 (944 x 2) would yield +/-1.5%
3776 (944 x 4) would yield +/-0.75%
7552 (944 x 8) would yield +/-0.375%
15104 (944 x 16) would yield +/-0.1875%

In reality, its not linear and the decay is much quicker. It decays as a square

Still shows a relatively small number of respondants when compared with the entire population - but it is representative. Diminishing returns set in.

You will, however, never reach 0% error, unless you as everyone. The error just becomes smaller and smaller.

Now, you may ask - who says that 944 is really +/- 3% error to begin with. I can answer as well or reccomened a good book were it will probably be explained better than i can.
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ANCFlyer
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 6:03 am

Quoting Mt99 (Reply 26):
You seem to suggest that the margin of error is inversely proportional to the number of respondants. Correct?

Not at all, I suggest not a large enough number of troops were queried . . .

Quoting Mt99 (Reply 26):
Still shows a relatively small number of respondants when compared with the entire population - but it is representative. Diminishing returns set in.

I understand . . . and respectfully - I would prefer to more of the troops asked. Somewhere along these number . . . .

Quoting Mt99 (Reply 26):
7552 (944 x 8) would yield +/-0.375%
15104 (944 x 16) would yield +/-0.1875%



Quoting Mt99 (Reply 26):
You will, however, never reach 0% error, unless you as everyone. The error just becomes smaller and smaller.

Even if you ask everyone - there will still be error . . . depends on the mood of the person - and in this particular poll - whether they've just been shot at. And, IMO, in this type of poll, the less error the better. This is not a game we've got going on, we're not taking a poll here on who might win the World Series in 2006 . . . . lives are at stake.

I appreciate your explanation  thumbsup , and I understand it . . . . I simply maintain, I'd prefer to see a larger number of troops polled with less margin for error . . .

And I still want to see the questions.
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mt99
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 6:17 am

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 27):
I appreciate your explanation , and I understand it . . . . I simply maintain, I'd prefer to see a larger number of troops polled with less margin for error . . .

Hate to be picky - but hey im bored!

If the results yielded 73% say YES and 74% say NO.. then yes.. a 3% margin is not acceptable. But in this case the difference in responses are well beyond the margin of error. This make it acceptable.
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11Bravo
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 6:24 am

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 22):
I disagree with you. You'll have to live with that. Or not.

Anyone here who has even a basic level of understanding about statistical sampling methods and analysis methods can plainly see that you're out of your element. You challenge the sample size and yet you include no discussion about the CI or the coefficient of variation. A sample size of 50,000? WTF? You are raising technical issues about a subject that you quite obviously know almost nothing about.

Speaking of red BS flags, someone needs to raise that flag for YOU here.

 redflag 

Why don't you just say that you disagree with the results and leave it at that. It's quite obvious that's your angle.
WhaleJets Rule!
 
ANCFlyer
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 6:31 am

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 29):
Anyone here who has even a basic level of understanding about statistical sampling methods and analysis methods can plainly see that you're out of your element.

Look Grunt, I never said I was a statistician and I looked at and learned from the info Mt99 posted. And I appreciate his efforts. At least I can say today, "I learned something". Can you???

That said: It's a simple concept, even an infantryman can grasp. I'd like to see a higher number of troops polled and I'd like to see the questions. Would you like me to send that to you via smoke signals???? Or Shack it and Send it with the good old CEOI???

Now, I'll hand you back your  redflag .
FOR THOSE THAT FOUGHT FOR IT, FREEDOM HAS A FLAVOR THE PROTECTED WILL NEVER KNOW OR UNDERSTAND
 
dl021
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 6:32 am

I'd like to see the questions asked by the poll. It's easy to force a conclusion depending on the context and direction of the entire poll.
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Gary2880
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 6:33 am

ill be happy for people to join me in the ignorant corner because im totally lost.

sounds interesting and informative but im still lost

Signed.

Willing but confused2880.
Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel :- Samuel Johnson
 
AeroWesty
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 6:33 am

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 29):
Why don't you just say that you disagree with the results and leave it at that. It's quite obvious that's your angle.

I've actually enjoyed the facts and figures going back and forth, reminds me of my days at Cal studying how polls are taken and results interpreted in a class on Cultural Anthropology.

It's okay to question, get more info (that ANC has already stated he's willing to do himself by e-mailing the college), and I hope whatever response he gets he posts it here.

Sometimes it's easier to use the examples of a vital poll for others to learn how these results come about, rather than just going through life accepting what they're fed.

I started this thread because I didn't understand what I was seeing fully, and expected those who knew more about it, or had questions themselves would respond. Other than the post quoted here, I'm ignoring the propoganda generated solely to put forth an agenda.
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11Bravo
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 7:47 am

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 30):
Or Shack it and Send it with the good old CEOI???

I don't have any funny papers handy. It will be hard to work sans Transmission Authentication Tables.

Regardless of how you do that, it won't change the adequacy of the sample size. Zogby is a reputable professional polling organization and I'm sure they conducted the poll according to professional standards. I too would like to see the questions, but Zogby doesn't have a reputation for doing polls with intentional selection bias or response bias. I think if the questions were of the "When did you stop beating your wife?" catagory, Zogby would decline the client's business.
WhaleJets Rule!
 
ANCFlyer
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 8:01 am

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 34):
. Zogby is a reputable professional polling organization and I'm sure they conducted the poll according to professional standards.

I said as much . . . but my concern is the Center for Peace and Global Studies . . . if they paid for said poll, it makes me wonder about the content of the poll . . . if one is getting paid, doesn't one generally do or ask what one is told?

Therein lies me desire to see the questions. They might very well be quite benign and honest, valuable questions. They may also be geared in such a direction that there are only multiple negative responses for each question, and the soldier had to pick the lesser of four evils - rather like our last Presidential election.

I don't dislike the poll, and I'm disconcerted about one of the results particularly - which I mention above.

Lets see if I get any answer from the College.

On a side note: I used to be quite fast with those Funny Papers . . . and then along came the Vinson Device, and alas the SINCGARS . . . it's a dying art . . .
FOR THOSE THAT FOUGHT FOR IT, FREEDOM HAS A FLAVOR THE PROTECTED WILL NEVER KNOW OR UNDERSTAND
 
VSlover
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 8:13 am

Quoting AeroWesty (Thread starter):
Although Mr Bush has acknowledged that Iraq played no role in September 11, 85 per cent of the troops said the US mission was mainly "to retaliate for Saddam's role in the 9/11 attacks".

here is an issue of interpretation--while some are shocked as this number and how the propaganda machine of the government is clearly working, this statistic could very well be read as:

...85 per cent of the troops said the US mission, as explained to them, was mainly "to retaliate for Saddam's role in the 9/11 attacks"

as this is the reason they are there, ie the reason they've been told they are there, not their own privately held beliefs.
 
11Bravo
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 8:21 am

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 35):
On a side note: I used to be quite fast with those Funny Papers

I always thought it was fun. Kinda like Ralphie and his decoder wheel. When I was a Corporal, we had this one platoon Sgt. who would put us in a shelter-half tent at night and bombard us with grenade simulators and rocks to "train" us to do it under pressure.
WhaleJets Rule!
 
Gary2880
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 8:23 am

polls can be tricky beggers, and i agree with anc the questions should be published as things can be totally distorted depending on which questions you ask will give you the answers you want to hear.

i have fished out this quote from the TV sitcom 'Yes, Prime Minister' from 1986 in which sir humphrey explains to bernard about how polling company's can get the results they want from the questions they ask....

Sir Humphrey: "You know what happens: nice young lady comes up to you. Obviously you want to create a good impression, you don't want to look a fool, do you? So she starts asking you some questions: Mr. Woolley, are you worried about the number of young people without jobs?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Are you worried about the rise in crime among teenagers?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Do you think there is a lack of discipline in our Comprehensive schools?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Do you think young people welcome some authority and leadership in their lives?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Do you think they respond to a challenge?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Would you be in favour of reintroducing National Service?"
Bernard Woolley: "Oh...well, I suppose I might be."
Sir Humphrey: "Yes or no?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Of course you would, Bernard. After all you told you can't say no to that. So they don't mention the first five questions and they publish the last one."
Bernard Woolley: "Is that really what they do?"
Sir Humphrey: "Well, not the reputable ones no, but there aren't many of those. So alternatively the young lady can get the opposite result."
Bernard Woolley: "How?"
Sir Humphrey: "Mr. Woolley, are you worried about the danger of war?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Are you worried about the growth of armaments?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Do you think there is a danger in giving young people guns and teaching them how to kill?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Do you think it is wrong to force people to take up arms against their will?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "Would you oppose the reintroduction of National Service?"
Bernard Woolley: "Yes"
Sir Humphrey: "There you are, you see Bernard. The perfect balanced sample."
Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel :- Samuel Johnson
 
ANCFlyer
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 8:30 am

Quoting 11Bravo (Reply 37):
When I was a Corporal, we had this one platoon Sgt. who would put us in a shelter-half tent at night and bombard us with grenade simulators and rocks to "train" us to do it under pressure.

Someone's Mother would write their Congressman about that in today's world . . . damned if i don't miss the 'real' Army . . .

Quoting Gary2880 (Reply 38):
polls can be tricky beggers,

Excellent Gary.

Exactly why I hope to see these poll questions. If I get them, I'll post them - here.

If I get them, I will be pleasantly surprised . . . .
FOR THOSE THAT FOUGHT FOR IT, FREEDOM HAS A FLAVOR THE PROTECTED WILL NEVER KNOW OR UNDERSTAND
 
Gary2880
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 8:46 am

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 39):
Excellent Gary.

aw shucks.

yes ive always liked that quote because he gives rational answers to normal questions yet they still manage to give totally different results. great series over all.
Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel :- Samuel Johnson
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 9:16 am

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 2):
They're tired and fed up.

And who can blame them.

You'll be shocked to here this, but I couldn't wait to retire a couple of months ago from the reserves. I'd had enough. Where we right to go? Yes. Are we doing any good the last year or so? Yes. Is it time for Iraq to get out on their own? Yup.
 
b757300
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 10:21 am

Quoting DL021 (Reply 31):
I'd like to see the questions asked by the poll. It's easy to force a conclusion depending on the context and direction of the entire poll.

This is a Zogby poll so you can be sure it was a loaded question. The only polls with less credibility are from CBS. (Their poll the other day was so blatantly bias even they've had to back peddle from it.)

Zogby said Kerry was going to sweep the 2004 election and was predicting this right up until the first real results were coming in.
"There is no victory at bargain basement prices."
 
A332
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 10:47 am

Quoting B757300 (Reply 42):
This is a Zogby poll so you can be sure it was a loaded question. The only polls with less credibility are from CBS. (Their poll the other day was so blatantly bias even they've had to back peddle from it.)

Zogby said Kerry was going to sweep the 2004 election and was predicting this right up until the first real results were coming in.

Oh whatever... if the Zogby poll ended up stating that a majority of troops in Iraq support "staying the course" you'd be singing a different tune...

Learn to think outside of that little tiny box you live in, for God's sake.
Bad spellers of the world... UNTIE!
 
DC10GUY
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 11:04 am

Sounds like the liberal media is finally seeing their desired effect take shape. Zapping the moral of the american soldiers. Its must be tough for our president and our soldiers to flight a multi front war. Maybe a few more billion dollars will help ?
Next time try the old "dirty Sanchez" She'll love it !!!
 
ANCFlyer
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 11:11 am

Quoting DC10GUY (Reply 44):
Sounds like the liberal media is finally seeing their desired effect take shape. Zapping the moral of the american soldiers. Its must be tough for our president and our soldiers to flight a multi front war. Maybe a few more billion dollars will help ?

And from no where, comes nothing . . .

I told you Westy we all have to sleep sometime . . . .

Moral = Morale . . .
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AeroWesty
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 11:13 am

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 45):
I told you Westy we all have to sleep sometime

 rotfl   rotfl 

I was wondering about that. Jesuits = New Liberal Media.
International Homo of Mystery
 
ANCFlyer
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 11:18 am

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 46):
Jesuits = New Liberal Media.

 scratchchin  confused 

Does to pay to actually READ the source document . . . eh??
FOR THOSE THAT FOUGHT FOR IT, FREEDOM HAS A FLAVOR THE PROTECTED WILL NEVER KNOW OR UNDERSTAND
 
UH60FtRucker
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 12:18 pm

God damn it. After the most stressful night since arriving here, I came on here thinking I could un-wind and de-stress. Well after reading this thread, I can throw that hope out the window.

This is going to get ugly real fast, but here it is:

So many of you know absolute jack shit. I shouldn't let the blatant lack of knowledge and understanding get to me, but it does. I don't know what pisses me off more, the fact that a lot of people haven't the slightest clue what military life is all about; or the fact that people are GLEEFUL over this poll and who cannot move fast enough to exploit it.

First... it does suck over here. The majority of us are under the age of 25, we're working 14hr days, the dust and sand get into everything, what little free time we have we spend in the line at the morale tent trying to get a ten minute call home, some of us have wives and husbands, almost everyone has family and friends - all who are going about their lives back home, and not to mention the small fact that terrorists are looking for any opportunity to kill you. Iraq sucks. Knowing you might die, or worse, knowing that you might lose men in your unit, is extremely stressful.

... but we volunteered for this. Practically anyone in the service either joined knowing they were going to be warriors in the GWT, or have re-enlisted knowing this fact. People who joined for the college money and not to fight... have slowly filtered out. We're here because we want to be. We're here because in some form or another, we believe that we're doing something that will make a difference.

Second, who did they poll? Active or Guard? Guard troops will understandably have a lower opinion. They've been asked to make a huge sacrifice. What rank were they? What MOSs were polled? All of this matters.

Third, christ, not everyone is going to be all "Hooah! I love this job!" Peacetime or wartime, you'll never find it. When you have an organization of a million people, you're bound to have some who are disillusioned. However, it's wrong to exploit these people, and use them as pawns for your political goals!

Forth, what the fuck do you think, we WANT to be here!? Of course not! Right now I could be waking up next to my wife of two months! I could drive down the road without having to wonder if that particular piece of garbage on the side is actually an IED. But if we're not willing to do this job, who the hell is going to do it? You, Klaus? You Aerowesty? You Gary2880?

Fifth, I am thoroughly disgusted and insulted in those of you who infer that we are being "brainwashed," and that we are too stupid to see that we are being propagandized. You wouldn't know what it's like to sacrifice. You wouldn't know what it's like to be prepared to give your life for a cause or for the men in your unit. You wouldn't know a god damn thing about serving and you certainly don't know a god damn thing about life as a soldier in Iraq/Afganistan. You'd be surprised the level of intelligence and situational awareness the average US soldiers possess... it's a hell of a lot greater than the yahoos here on A.net. And they certainly exhibit a greater sense of self-sacrifice than can mustered in these god damn forums.

Nothing but a bunch of arm chair quarterbacks who sit behind the computers in their safe, comfortable homes... only thinking about themselves, only worrying about themselves, and dying for any piece of news they can use to advance their political agenda. Why don't you freakin' admit it, you couldn't give a rats ass about the welfare of the troops. The only way you're willing to take time away from your dull, self-centered, cowardly lives to worry about how we're doing here in Iraq, is when the news fits into your agenda. Otherwise, you couldn't give a flying f%#k about us and how we're doing. And when what we're saying doesn't jive with your un-informed, ignorant point of view, then you write us off as brainwashed fools. Well screw you too.

Believe what ever the hell you want. I don't give a shit. Even though you've never been here - never spent a day in the life, never walked a miles in the shoes.... you know everything! You've got a monopoly on the truth.

Bunch of ignorant fools.

-UH60
Your men have to follow your orders. They don't have to go to your funeral.
 
AeroWesty
Topic Author
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RE: Majority Of Troops In Iraq Support Withdrawal

Thu Mar 02, 2006 12:26 pm

Quoting UH60FtRucker (Reply 48):
But if we're not willing to do this job, who the hell is going to do it? You, Klaus? You Aerowesty?

First off, as I've said before, thank you for your service.

Second off, if you read this thread as you said you did, I've not said one disparaging word about the military, only questioned the results of the poll, and asked questions. As I've said to you before, if you have a gripe with what I've said, quote me. Chapter and verse.

If asking questions, without an agenda other than information, pisses you off, you have to live with that, not me.

Stay safe.
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