BarfBag
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India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Fri Mar 03, 2006 12:53 am

On the first full day of his stay in India as part of his visit to the Indian subcontinent, US president George Bush and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh have announced that the two countries have arrived at an agreement on Indian access to nuclear fuel and technology from the Nuclear Suppliers Group cartel, formalizing a plan first announced during Singh's visited to the US in July 2005.

In exchange, India will put some of its two dozen nuclear reactors under international safeguards, formalize de facto policies in place to prevent horizontal nuclear proliferation, and will provide opportunities for major international suppliers like Toshiba-Westinghouse and Areva to bid for multibillion dollar contracts to build additional nuclear power generation facilities for a fast growing economy, which is slated to grow 8.1% in the current fiscal.

Negotiations were deadlocked over the subject of India's fast breeder reactor program, which intends to convert India's vast thorium supplies into fissile Uranium for power and weapons development. India insisted upon not opening these to safegards, and they remain out of bounds as part of the deal, since they are an important part of the process of producing weapons grade uranium. Instead, fourteen conventional reactors from the power generation grid will be open to inspection, and the research and weapons programs will run separately.

Joint Statement by PM Singh and President Bush
Singh, Bush agree on landmark nuclear separation deal
Fast breeder reactors not open for inspection
Nuclear deal with India a victory for Bush (AP)
India, US agree to landmark nuclear pact (CNN)


U.S. President George W. Bush, left, puts his arm around Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at the conclusion of a joint press availability with at Hyderabad House in New Delhi, India Thursday, March 2, 2006. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
 
Gary2880
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Fri Mar 03, 2006 12:57 am

Quoting BarfBag (Thread starter):
U.S. President George W. Bush, left,

oh bush is on the left! ah.... glad that was pointed out
Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel :- Samuel Johnson
 
jaysit
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Fri Mar 03, 2006 2:07 am

A win-win situation for both.

A shining example of Condi Rice's efforts over the past 5 years to change the Indo-US landscape. While the usual cabal of assorted noisemakers (the Indian left, the communists, nationalists of every stripe, Islamists, Arundhati Roy (go back to writing novels, Ms Roy because you're really good at it)) will protest, I suspect this deal will go through.

Not surprisingly, polls taken in India this past January showed that the US had an approval rating of over 70% among all Indians. That, apparently, puts it on par with British sentiments. Lets hope that the vestiges of India's prickliness when it came to the US will vanish.
Atheism is Myth Understood.
 
mdsh00
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Fri Mar 03, 2006 2:19 am

Question to those in the US right now. How is the public (the ones that are actually aware) reacting to this? I get the feeling that the media is really focusing more on the protests (which arent really that significant), rather than the deal.
"Look Lois, the two symbols of the Republican Party: an elephant, and a big fat white guy who is threatened by change."
 
ArmitageShanks
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Fri Mar 03, 2006 2:28 am

Quoting Mdsh00 (Reply 3):
Question to those in the US right now. How is the public (the ones that are actually aware) reacting to this?

Positively. Most see it as what it is- a good thing.
 
halls120
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Fri Mar 03, 2006 2:46 am

Quoting Gary2880 (Reply 1):
Quoting BarfBag (Thread starter):
U.S. President George W. Bush, left,

oh bush is on the left! ah.... glad that was pointed out

 rotfl  I know, it would have been difficult to figure that out!
"Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself." Mark Twain, a Biography
 
BarfBag
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Fri Mar 03, 2006 2:49 am

Jaysit: Rice indeed had a big role to play in a larger way. The nuclear deal and validation of India's weapons program is part of the realignment from Europe to Asia. There was a related recent announcement of manpower cuts in US embassies in Europe, with the two largest staffing increases being in Beijing and New Delhi.

There's been little political opposition to the deal, except from the Commies. That's to be expected considering Beijing's surprise (and quite likely horror) at the recent revelations of how much larger India's weapons grade stockpile is than was previously presumed. Most of the recent debate was centered on the very valid inputs from the likes of DAE head and advisor Anil Kakodkar, who were among those who ensured the strategic weapons program remained untouched while allowing the needless cover over the civilian nuclear program to be opened up to market forces.
 
lh477
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Fri Mar 03, 2006 3:50 am

I have mixed feelings on the deal.

On one hand, I am glad the Indian Nuclear program has "Legitimacy". I am hoping Manmohan Singh was also able to negotiate American support for Indian permanent seat on UN security council. I have a feeling the two are linked. India is more deserving of seating on security council then some of the current members. As representative of 1/6 of the world population it deserves a seat more then Brazil, Japan, Pakistan, etc. It makes my Indian blood more cheerful on this cold dreary day.

On the other hand, it sets a bad precedant for the overall objective of reducing profileration of Nuclear technology and arms. My last readings on the issue was that the current US administration wasn't too keen on renewing the 1970's treaty. I imagine Pakistan too want legitimacy. Iran's case of Nuclear technology gains a little more legitimacy by US admin double standards. Personally, I don't believe either Pakistan or Iran are deserving, they have not shown the level of restraint in action or talk that India has shown (I'll surely be flamed for being biased).

Moral of the story.....Do your tests, the World gets mad,sanctions are issued, 5-10 years down the line, all is forgotten, and you become fast friends.

I guess India can say bye bye to Iran Natural Gas.
Come on you gunners......!!!!!
 
BarfBag
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Fri Mar 03, 2006 4:39 am

The current non-proliferation framework is flawed. It can only be effectively imposed on nations who either have an incentive to stay under a P-5 umbrella or cannot stand up to pressure to end their efforts.

India's stand on proliferation remains that our commitment to halting *horizontal* proliferation (between nations) remains within the spirit of NPT, and we neither have any interest in arming others with nukes, nor have done so. However we absolutely will not accept any sort of restriction on how many weapons we can develop (i.e. the so called vertical proliferation). That will be decided by us based on our own threat perceptions, not by some geezers in an alphabet soup organization in Geneva or Vienna.

All the bellyaching about proliferation is a red herring - a symptom of the fact that it was a framework created 3.5 decades ago when the world was a different place. India's weapons status and that the NPT mandates are mutually exclusive, and the NPT is essentially unenforeable on India. The best option therefore was to change the nuclear P5 into P5+1, and that is what has happened:

Bush Ushers India Into Nuclear Community
Reversing decades of U.S. policy, President Bush ushered India into the world's exclusive nuclear club Thursday with a landmark agreement to share nuclear reactors, fuel and expertise with this energy-starved nation in return for its acceptance of international safeguards.
 
jaysit
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Fri Mar 03, 2006 6:12 am

Quoting LH477 (Reply 7):
Moral of the story.....Do your tests, the World gets mad,sanctions are issued, 5-10 years down the line, all is forgotten, and you become fast friends.

I guess India can say bye bye to Iran Natural Gas.

It's called the art of realpolitik.

Besides, I doubt if the Iranian natural gas line deal is dead. It may slow down and we may see nothing for the next 5 years. However, Washington is also of the opinion that the Mullahs will not last in Iran forever, and that India can pressure Iran to behave itself in the region.

What I do find amusing is the gushiness of the hyperbolic Indian press. Many have proclaimed that India is no longer a 3rd World nation as of March 2, 2006. They must be blind to reality. This treaty symbolizes the US' tacit cooperation in accelerating India's move from Third world status and a virtual end to the old Nehruvian anti-US, anti-capitalist drivel, but it does not negate the fact that over 600 million people need to be yanked out of poverty.
Atheism is Myth Understood.
 
texdravid
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Fri Mar 03, 2006 6:23 am

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 2):
A win-win situation for both.

A shining example of Condi Rice's efforts over the past 5 years to change the Indo-US landscape. While the usual cabal of assorted noisemakers (the Indian left, the communists, nationalists of every stripe, Islamists, Arundhati Roy (go back to writing novels, Ms Roy because you're really good at it)) will protest, I suspect this deal will go through.

Not surprisingly, polls taken in India this past January showed that the US had an approval rating of over 70% among all Indians. That, apparently, puts it on par with British sentiments. Lets hope that the vestiges of India's prickliness when it came to the US will vanish.

Agreed. Well said.
However, the reaction from the old line communists/socialists is difficult to hear. These dinosaurs need to realize their way has failed, and that the liberation of the economy that began in the early 1990's by P.V.N. Rao is continuing and making India a real world economic power. I am encouraged that these market reforms are bipartisan, supported by the Congress and BJP.

May this agreement cement the relationship between the U.S. and India. More power to both.
Tort reform now. Throw lawyers in jail later.
 
pbottenb
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Fri Mar 03, 2006 7:02 am

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 9):
but it does not negate the fact that over 600 million people need to be yanked out of poverty.

Perhaps, but it recognizes the 500 million who are living in the first world. This is more that the population of the US...
 
Derico
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Fri Mar 03, 2006 7:14 am

Quoting Pbottenb (Reply 11):
Perhaps, but it recognizes the 500 million who are living in the first world. This is more that the population of the US...

Really? My friend that backpaced to India with his girlfriend, and went to some sanctuary there (only westerners mostly go there), showed me pictures of India.

Some of the big cities seem to be developing, but those pictures seem to have missed most of those 500 million people living in the 1st world! Granted it was three years ago, but still...

That said I admire India like few countries for being so vast, populous, and ethnically diverse and being in such an unstable region, yet remaining democratic. Honestly, that's a remarkable achievement.
My internet was not shut down, the internet has shut me down
 
pbottenb
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Fri Mar 03, 2006 7:22 am

Quoting Derico (Reply 12):
Some of the big cities seem to be developing, but those pictures seem to have missed most of those 500 million people living in the 1st world! Granted it was three years ago, but still...

Its probably hard to recognize if you have never seen one before...
 
Derico
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Fri Mar 03, 2006 7:25 am

Quoting Pbottenb (Reply 13):
Its probably hard to recognize if you have never seen one before...

Hmmm. Ok. But I do know that tourists usually don't go around the areas where the more well off live, those areas of town are usually off-limits. So I realize it was probably a biased 'picture'.
My internet was not shut down, the internet has shut me down
 
jaysit
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Fri Mar 03, 2006 8:45 am

Quoting Pbottenb (Reply 11):
Quoting Jaysit (Reply 9):
but it does not negate the fact that over 600 million people need to be yanked out of poverty.

Perhaps, but it recognizes the 500 million who are living in the first world. This is more that the population of the US...

That is a vastly over-stated number.

I would say that about 50-60 million or so people in India have a lifestyle that is equivalent to those living in the West in terms of creature comforts, average life expectancy, etc (by this I don't mean Beverly Hills trust fund babies, but the lifestyle of a middle class American family). Many of these people do, however, live in teeming cities like Mumbai where a 1000 sq ft flat in a highrise goes for close to $ 500,000. This highrise may be next door to a squalid slum. To the average Westerner used to seeing clearly demarcated lines between rich neighborhoods and poor, this may be unsettling - and rather confusing.

Then you have another 100-150 million people or so who are the aspiring middle class. These people have a lifestyle equivalent to say, the lower middle class in an ASEAN tiger nation like Thailand. These people - I think - are the future of the country, because they see that they have less in terms of creature comforts (good housing, clean water, good schools, etc.) than those with the same educational levels and aspirations in other developing countries, and are in a position to work hard for it and - for the first time - obtain it (quite unlike those who toiled during the socialist regimes of Indira Gandhi and her successors, who just worked hard and had little to show for it afterwards).

Below them you have the aspiring urban and semi-rural poor, who for the first time in their lives have been exposed to the outside world by television. They see the rich in India enjoying a lifestyle similar to what they see on "The Bold and the Beautiful" (dubbed in Hindi, of course), and are ticked off that the government has been slow and corrupt in delivering the goods. These people are largely responsible for throwing out the prior government, and are willing to throw out any government that is slow to deliver, and is riddled with corruption.

You then have another 500 million or so people living in abject poverty in both rural and urban India, abject poverty that is beyond the imagination of not only anyone in the West, but anyone in SE Asia or even China or Latin America.

So, please, press reports (both Western and especially Indian) that prattle on to no end as to how India is filled with nearly 500 million American style consumers are to be taken with a huge grain of salt. For several decades to come. Yes, India by its sheer size will add millions to its aspiring middle class each year if growth continues at this Sino-style level, but it still has a long way to go.
Atheism is Myth Understood.
 
usnseallt82
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Fri Mar 03, 2006 8:51 am

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 2):
A win-win situation for both.

 checkmark  I agree completely.

This is something that has been left behind by other administrations, but I'm glad to see that something was reached over these past couple of days.

Quoting Mdsh00 (Reply 3):
How is the public (the ones that are actually aware) reacting to this?

From what I understand, the part that actually is paying attention to the talks....keep in mind, a very small minority....is very pleased. The ones who are just taking a blip from Headline News might or might not know what's going on. But, I think the majority of those who know what's happening are very happy with the deal.

However, this deal will likely open up more concerns from both China and Pakistan. The job is definitely not finished yet.
Crye me a river
 
BarfBag
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Fri Mar 03, 2006 10:31 am

Quoting Usnseallt82 (Reply 16):

However, this deal will likely open up more concerns from both China and Pakistan. The job is definitely not finished yet.

Well, the Chinese issued a condemnation, urging India to give up nuclear weapons and work towards peaceful relations  Yeah sure The Indian ministry of external affairs ignored it, probably because they were doubled over laughing.

Seriously, why would the concerns of a) a totalitarian quasi-socialist police state that crushes its own people with tanks and ruthlessly stifles dissent and information even on the internet and b) a military dictatorship rife with islamist terrorism and run by a despot who deposed his democratically elected predecessor in a coup, be so prominent as to warrant such regard ? The parties involved in this deal, on the other hand are a) the world's oldest and most powerful democracy and b) the world's largest and most diverse democracy, in a region where democracy is for most part conspicuous by its absense. This sort of political correctness is downright ridiculous.

All this deal does is legitimately integrate the Indian nuclear program, that has been in existence since the first reactor went critical in the mid-1950s, with the regular commercial framework, including the controls built into it. That can only be a good thing. There are no proliferation concerns, either in terms of past rogue behavior, or any compulsion on our part to do so. The only people who see it as proliferation are those who presume they can determine India's right to bear nuclear arms. Our weapons program isn't going anywhere. This deal merely accomodates it after decades of denial.

It is extraordinary that there are special interest groups in the US and elsewhere in the western world who would willingly squander huge amounts of diplomatic capital towards needlessly antagonizing a fellow democracy, and that too one in a generally unstable part of the world filled with anti-west forces, in the pursuit of a tunnel-visioned view of geopolitical power that is stuck in a world from four decades ago. History has shown that rising powers need to be accomodated within the existing power framework, and rejecting them only heads to conflict. The world's changing, and there's nothing bigger happening than two fast growing Asian powers, and their increasing needs will have to be fitted in.
 
jaysit
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Fri Mar 03, 2006 12:17 pm

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 17):
This sort of political correctness is downright ridiculous.

Its not political correctness. Its just that China over the past 25 years captured the imagination of the West, and is now in a symbiotic relationship with it. As far as Pakistan goes, those still bearing a cold war mind are loathe to give up a long term cold war ally.
Atheism is Myth Understood.
 
usnseallt82
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Fri Mar 03, 2006 12:27 pm

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 18):
Its not political correctness.

 checkmark  Again, I agree. There is nothing about political correctness in anything that's been discussed.

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 17):
The world's changing, and there's nothing bigger happening than two fast growing Asian powers, and their increasing needs will have to be fitted in.

Yes, but that's a hell of a lot different than those powers forcing their way in without regard to the rest of the world. They may be up and coming, but they still aren't the big kids on the block yet. China is on a crash course right now if it wants to keep the political system, or lack thereof, that it has. The economy will only last so long without change in the government before the whole thing implodes. That being said, they have reason to worry when India starts getting more nuclear technology. I don't really care about China's opinion and fully support India's up and coming presence in the world, but to disregard China completely is foolish.

Pakistan is a key element here because of the need for control over its borders in the war on terror. You know better than anyone that you can't just push them aside either, especially since they just test fired a new short-range ballistic missile.

My point is, I understand that China and Pakistan both have a ways to go before seeing their relations with the rest of the world improve like India is, but you can't just ignore their concerns. You know they are watching these talks more closely than anyone else and will be listening for anything that gives them a reason to worry. The last thing we need is to piss off anyone by siding with India too much.
Crye me a river
 
mdsh00
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Fri Mar 03, 2006 1:18 pm

another question. Is it most likely that the US congress will approve of this? Otherwise this is nothing but a gesture.

[Edited 2006-03-03 05:23:31]
"Look Lois, the two symbols of the Republican Party: an elephant, and a big fat white guy who is threatened by change."
 
jaysit
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Fri Mar 03, 2006 1:33 pm

Quoting Mdsh00 (Reply 20):
another question. Is it most likely that the US congress will approve of this? Otherwise this is nothing but a gesture.

This is one of the President's few unsullied foreign policy successes. Why on earth would a Republican led Congress oppose it. Plus, there are enough Democrats in the India caucus to shush the Ayatollahs of the NPT.
Atheism is Myth Understood.
 
BarfBag
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Fri Mar 03, 2006 3:57 pm

Quoting Jaysit (Reply 18):
Its not political correctness.

Let me put it this way - I never saw a mention of anyone looking to ensure India's concerns were accounted for when the nuclear plant deal between the Chinese and Westinghouse was negotiated. Nor did either Pakistan or China solicit, much less defer to, Indian concerns when they clandestinely transferred weapons between each other. After all, doing so was expressly meant to target India.

Lets be realistic - neither of those countries have a record of 'playing by the book', and both are the biggest culprits of the very proliferation that we have endlessly accused of by the geriatric ayatollahs of the non proliferation kind. We do not owe their opinions any regard. As far as the weapons themselves go, despite the usual suggestions of India and Pakistan running an arms race, our own strategic posture is specifically targeted at PRC, something that would be evident if you read the output of geopolitical policy experts in New Delhi. Regarding Pakistan, it is to be expected that as a military dictatorship ru n by someone with a tenuous hold on power, the natural course of action would be to threaten nuclear holocaust if he's under pressure, just as the likes of Kim Jong-Il and Gaddhafi have done. Have you ever heard an Indian PM say he'll nuke Pakistan, or even China ?

Our only public statements have been a reiteration of our strategic doctrine - that we will never be the first to use nuclear weapons, but will reserve the right to build an arsenal that can inflict unacceptable damage on a second strike against any would be attacker, even as a Samson Option in an imaginary MAD scenario against China.

Therefore I don't see any reason to presume that their opinion matters. I do understand that the US, because of its own economic and military compulsions, will have a different view. But from an Indian viewpoint, even the official response, or rather the lack of one, to statements by Beijing and Islamabad underlines the fact that they don't care.
 
incitatus
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Sat Mar 04, 2006 3:38 pm

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 8):
That will be decided by us based on our own threat perceptions, not by some geezers in an alphabet soup organization in Geneva or Vienna.

Shouldn't all countries think similarly? Now India gets recognition - then Brazil, Israel, South Africa, Pakistan, Iran, Bangladesh, Saudi etc, etc, etc, should all pursue their own nuclear deterrent until even Monaco has their own bombs. Your reasoning is pretty flawed.

The US is making a mistake - a serious one that will have consequences for decades. India's accession as a permanent member of the UN Security Council should be conditional on dismantling its military program.

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 17):
History has shown that rising powers need to be accomodated within the existing power framework, and rejecting them only heads to conflict.

India's economic growth has nothing to do with nuclear capability.
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NoUFO
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Sat Mar 04, 2006 4:14 pm

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 23):
Now India gets recognition - then Brazil, Israel, South Africa, Pakistan, Iran, Bangladesh, Saudi etc, etc, etc, should all pursue their own nuclear deterrent until even Monaco has their own bombs. Your reasoning is pretty flawed.

Flawed yes, but India gets recognition only to keep China in checks and balances so to speak. Hence the Chinese protest. They, the Chinese, know very well that the west does not only envy Chinese economic growth numbers but is also suspiciously whatching their military power. Japan and South Korea are too small to form a counterweight.

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 23):
India's economic growth has nothing to do with nuclear capability.

In fact it has when it comes to building strategic alliances against China.
I support the right to arm bears
 
incitatus
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Sun Mar 05, 2006 2:06 am

Quoting NoUFO (Reply 24):
Flawed yes, but India gets recognition only to keep China in checks and balances so to speak. Hence the Chinese protest. They, the Chinese, know very well that the west does not only envy Chinese economic growth numbers but is also suspiciously whatching their military power. Japan and South Korea are too small to form a counterweight.

China is a convenient excuse to the Indian government's mistaken view that nuclear capability beams them out of the third world.

I don't think the West (i.e., North America and Western Europe) envy the Chinese economic growth. Actually China's economic growth is the product of Western money and policies of pushing for freer trade and liberal foreign investment rules. In short, the West is directly responsible for it.

Quoting NoUFO (Reply 24):
In fact it has when it comes to building strategic alliances against China.

Building a strategic alliance against China is moving a step closer to a conflict. It's a mistaken approach and I believe that is not the intention of the US govt. The US doesn't need India's relatively mediocre nuclear capability in the event it decides to nuke China out of the map - which will never happen due to the common economic interests of the US and China.

The US reasoning on making a nuclear agreement with India is not strategic, it's mercantilist. Give India a carrot to intensify commercial relations, in detriment of EU-India, Russia-India and China-India trade.
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mdsh00
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Sun Mar 05, 2006 2:25 am

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 23):
Shouldn't all countries think similarly? Now India gets recognition - then Brazil, Israel, South Africa, Pakistan, Iran, Bangladesh, Saudi etc, etc, etc, should all pursue their own nuclear deterrent until even Monaco has their own bombs. Your reasoning is pretty flawed.



Quoting Incitatus (Reply 23):
India's accession as a permanent member of the UN Security Council should be conditional on dismantling its military program.

Why? If that were the case, then all permanent members of the security council should do the same. Try living next to two hostile neighbors and you will probably be thinking differently. India has always stood on the policy of nuclear weapons as a deterrent, not as an option.
"Look Lois, the two symbols of the Republican Party: an elephant, and a big fat white guy who is threatened by change."
 
BarfBag
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Sun Mar 05, 2006 4:12 am

We'll be happy to give up our deterrent when the Chinese do. It's really as 'simple' as that. As long as we have a hypernationalist police state next door with its own fantasies of great powerdom, including primacy in Asia, we cannot be without nukes. For all our decades of effort at disarmament, we have always envisioned a nuclear deterrent from the very beginning, when we initiated the program in the late 1940s.

I realize there's no way to convince everyone else, particularly nations that were compelled to dismantle their weapons programs, and who feel we shouldn't have one either. But the reality is we were able to maintain and grow our deterrent and deal with the world's biggest power on the basis of our right to keep it. It may not be fair, but it's reality. As long it takes care of our interests, it's all that matters to us.
 
aseem
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Sun Mar 05, 2006 4:19 am

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 27):
As long it takes care of our interests, it's all that matters to us.

It is not without reason that you have been in my Respected list for long.
rgds
VT-ASJ
ala re ala, VT-ALA ala
 
incitatus
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Sun Mar 05, 2006 11:18 am

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 27):
We'll be happy to give up our deterrent when the Chinese do. It's really as 'simple' as that. As long as we have a hypernationalist police state next door with its own fantasies of great powerdom, including primacy in Asia, we cannot be without nukes.

China and India may get at small border wars but the idea that India needs nuclear bombs to stop China has no credit. Even though India has a booming services sector, it has a relatively small industrial sector. It is not a big source of raw materials like oil or ore. Why would China want to go into India? For an extra billion people to feed? Unlikely.

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 27):
As long it takes care of our interests, it's all that matters to us.

Well, I'm saying it doesn't take care of India's interests. India's interests are not nuclear bombs. India's interests are to feed, house, educate and care for 1.1 billion people. That's a very long way from being accomplished.

Quoting Mdsh00 (Reply 26):
Why? If that were the case, then all permanent members of the security council should do the same.

The spirit of the NPT is that eventually the world will have no nuclear bombs. India and the current US administration are working against it.
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aseem
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Sun Mar 05, 2006 12:35 pm

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 29):
Well, I'm saying it doesn't take care of India's interests. India's interests are not nuclear bombs. India's interests are to feed, house, educate and care for 1.1 billion people. That's a very long way from being accomplished.

Could you please explain in economic terms how doing away with bombs help achieve those targets!!

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 29):
The spirit of the NPT is that eventually the world will have no nuclear bombs. India and the current US administration are working against it.

Are you sure that it'll eventually happen!! Are accepted members of nuclear club doing away with their's.

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 29):
China and India may get at small border wars but the idea that India needs nuclear bombs to stop China has no credit.

Security is based on threat perception as nobody can rule out a full blown war. China may not need India now, but how can one assure us of that for future. Why would we in our right minds close our options.

rgds
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BarfBag
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Sun Mar 05, 2006 1:23 pm

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 29):
China and India may get at small border wars but the idea that India needs nuclear bombs to stop China has no credit.

That is quite false. Four decades of concerted strategic initiative by India to maintain a deterrent argues otherwise. Your own presumptions are at odds with official *actions*. Our rationale may not appeal to everyone. People may ask why a poor nation should spend on nuclear weapons, and that is a valid question. Generally, there's no easy rationale why some nations keep a weapon that is primarily meant not to be used. The bottomline is that India has chosen to do so, and bloodymindedly keep at it. You can continue to throw muck at it all you like, but it doesn't change reality one bit.

Brazilian churlishness at our weapons program is rather silly. As I recall you once had a weapons program, but gave it up. You cannot have it now simply because we have validation to maintain ours. When I spoke earlier of India's right to nuclear arms I meant precisely that - India's right. We earned it by paying a very large political, strategic and economic cost to get to the present situation. Why should we let other nations ride free on our own efforts to gain validity ?

Nukes are a big deal. The global geopolitical system imposes a massive entry cost for a reason. You don't become a gunnery sergeant if you can't hit a barn door from 5 metres. India paid a heavy cost to get where it is, a cost Brazil was unwilling to pay after starting out on the same path. Thanks to the current antipathy against new nuclear powers, your entry cost will be even higher now.

If Brazil wanted nukes, it should have persevered and paid what it cost to keep its weapons program, but it did not, and that is not India's fault, nor is it upto us to back your desire to get them. Brazilian opposition really doesn't matter to us anyway. Our strategic policy always entailed the pursuit of nuclear weapons for better or worse, even before a threat in the form of PRC came up. And we kept at it until the cost of keeping us out of the mainstream was too high compared to co-opting us as a recognized power as the India-US deal has done. As someone said earlier, it is called realpolitik.
 
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Mon Mar 06, 2006 4:25 pm

I think by recognizing India's N status, US wanted to send some serious messages to the International community in general and India's neighbors in particular.

- That best way to have a cake and be able to eat it is by having a functional and secular democracy with focus on economic development. In other words, rules can be bent if you are seen to be sharing common civic values and threat perceptions. (message to China and Iran)
- That you can't expect the same treatment while showcasing a cake and distributing its spoils (i.e., proliferation) (message to Pakistan)

I am surprized that most of the discussions so far have only focused on weapon side of the things. For me, the real benefit of the deal is about the reduction of dependency on the oil imports.
 
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Mon Mar 06, 2006 7:55 pm

Where are we going to store the waste from all this new nuclear development down the road? Oh, wait, I'm using logic again. Silly me. Fission first, ask questions later. Money drives everything, reason drives nothing.
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BarfBag
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Tue Mar 07, 2006 3:28 am

Quoting SATX (Reply 33):
Where are we going to store the waste from all this new nuclear development down the road? Oh, wait, I'm using logic again. Silly me. Fission first, ask questions later. Money drives everything, reason drives nothing.

Are you familiar with the terms of the deal and the technical background ? India does not intend to build its nuclear industry on the conventional LWR or PHWR technology, but our own proprietary FBR technology. These have a closed loop fuel cycle fed with Thorium, with the spent fuel largely serving as feedstock for the next fuel load. The PHWRs in the military domain will simply be run in a mode that lets them generate weapons grade plutonium, while the spent fuel from the civilian ones are intended to be processed as part of the US-led GNEP.
 
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Tue Mar 07, 2006 3:53 am

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 34):
Are you familiar with the terms of the deal and the technical background ?

Every nuclear facility ever built creates nuclear waste and even the core of the facility itself will eventually have to be decommissioned, disassembled, and stored somewhere while it decays for thousands if not millions of years. Where will this place be? I'm looking for a location here. You know, one that can be expected to stay dormant for hundreds of thousands of years.
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BarfBag
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Tue Mar 07, 2006 4:05 am

A permanent location is not 'required'. It is a question of economics - as long as storage mechanisms can continue to handle with any waste, and the economic benefits provided by the electricity generated are far in excess of the cost of storing the waste, the overall pluses far exceed the minuses. That is the very calculation that drives India's multibillion dollar investment in nuclear power.

The primary waste product is spent fuel, and FBRs minimize that. For the existing conventional reactors, that's where the GNEP comes into the picture. It's hardly an Indian problem alone, nor is GNEP an India specific initiative. There's no reason for nuclear energy to be hijacked by concerns regarding the disposal of waste; the average person is more likely to be harmed by automobile exhaust than nuclear waste.
 
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Tue Mar 07, 2006 5:58 am

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 36):
It is a question of economics - as long as storage mechanisms can continue to handle with any waste, and the economic benefits provided by the electricity generated are far in excess of the cost of storing the waste, the overall pluses far exceed the minuses.

What is the cost of storing anything for hundreds of thousands of years? How can you know if it's better in the long run when you don't even know how much it will cost to store in the first place? I have yet to see an honest calculation for storing anything for such a long period, let alone something known to be dangerous and target prone.

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 36):
That is the very calculation that drives India's multibillion dollar investment in nuclear power.

Over here in the US it was the government's acceptance and re-acceptance of liability that drove the investment in nuclear power. I would be rather surprised if it was much different in India.

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 36):
It's hardly an Indian problem alone, nor is GNEP an India specific initiative. There's no reason for nuclear energy to be hijacked by concerns regarding the disposal of waste; the average person is more likely to be harmed by automobile exhaust than nuclear waste.



You know what car exhaust has to do with my concerns about nuclear power? Nothing at all. The lesser of two evils strategy doesn't carry any weight now that solar and wind power have largely caught up with reliability targets and are certainly much cheaper than storing nuclear waste over the next hundred millennia. The only reason the US nuclear industry makes anything resembling a profit is because the tax payer is there to clean it up and store it in the end. If a nuclear power plant goes critical, oh well, the insurance pays 300 million and they're largely off the hook. Never mind the fact that insurance company estimates show that some power plants could cause more than a trillion dollars worth of liabilities.
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Tue Mar 07, 2006 6:49 am

Quoting SATX (Reply 37):
What is the cost of storing anything for hundreds of thousands of years? How can you know if it's better in the long run when you don't even know how much it will cost to store in the first place?

Absolute cost is does not matter. Relative cost does - relative to the positive benefits of nuclear energy as a fuel for economic growth. From a car buying perspective, it's the monthly payment view, as opposed to the full cash payment one. Every nation that utilized nuclear power - not just the US, but others with a far more dedicated emphasis on nuclear power like France and Japan, live with the same calculus in mind, and still chose to invest heavily in nuclear power. India chose the same rationale as them.

Quoting SATX (Reply 37):
You know what car exhaust has to do with my concerns about nuclear power? Nothing at all.

Nor does quoting the US example in India's case. We don't have a massive arsenal, nor a huge grandfathered backlog of waste from the weapons and energy programs. Nor do we intend to pursue the same nuclear technology. In comparative terms, the relative and absolute costs do not compare.

Quoting SATX (Reply 37):
The lesser of two evils strategy doesn't carry any weight now that solar and wind power have largely caught up with reliability targets and are certainly much cheaper than storing nuclear waste over the next hundred millennia.

There's both a lifetime cost and an entry cost. In the case of nuclear power - we have the technology we need already. In the case of advaced solar and wind power, not only is the technology developing, but we need to import the technology, placing a larger entry cost. For a nation like India, that consideration is extremely important. And when there is such a massive compulsion to focus on economic growth, lower entry costs and a higher lifetime cost will trump the opposite cost structure. Plus, wind and solar power doesnt augment our weapons capability.

It is a given that the growth of India and China will result in significant pollution, but I'd rather we focussed on growth than mitigating ecological damage. Is it a blind pursuit from the ecological perspectice ? Maybe. But it has the backing of a billion people who want economic progress now - as blind as they may be to long term repercussions, and the attendant energy to fuel it, at the cheapest price. Low entry cost and available FBR technology does that for us.
 
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Tue Mar 07, 2006 10:48 am

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 23):
The US is making a mistake - a serious one that will have consequences for decades. India's accession as a permanent member of the UN Security Council should be conditional on dismantling its military program.

Isn't that a bit like saying that France's ability to stay as a member of the US Security Council should be conditional on it dismantling its military program?

We all know that ownership of nuclear weapons sadly defies that old adage "what goes for the goose, goes for the gander." There are ganders, and there are geese, and they're not all equal.
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satx
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RE: India And US Reach Landmark Nuclear Deal

Wed Mar 08, 2006 9:44 am

Quoting BarfBag (Reply 38):
I'd rather we focussed on growth than mitigating ecological damage.

And therein lies the rub. I'd rather we stop our rampant experimenting on the one planet we do possess because if we screw this one up we don't have any others to replace it with. Ravaging one's own environment until it is no longer able to support you is what a parasite does. Are we no better than a greedy parasite?
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