mrmeangenes
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Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Tue Apr 04, 2006 10:57 pm

I'm addressing this primarily to our Latin American Members.

I saw something yesterday (not sure where or how accurate) which suggested Hugo Chavez is planning to field the largest army in the Southern Hemisphere.

The obvious question is "Why ?"

This triggered a recollection of something that came up quite some time ago about Chavez' new "Bolivarian Republic" flag - which has 7 stars, and which does not quite jibe with the 6 states in Venezuela.

I thought at the time-perhaps the "7th state" might be Cuba; and that,further down the road,the two nations might join under one leader-thus "solving" the problem of what will happen to Cuba when the aging Fidel runs out of time.

Later it occurred to me the 7 stars could also represent the 7 nations Presidente Chavez plans to incorporate into his new Bolivarian Republic !

Cuba,Venezuela,Ecuador,Bolivia,Peru,Colombia...and Mexico-whose Luis Obrador is a Chavez supporter,according to published reports. Obrador is running for president of Mexico,and stands a fair chance of winning.

The 7th star could also represent Argentina or Brazil (despite the language difference).

A "super nation" made up of the 7 named countries - or one of the alternatives - could control most of the vital resources (legal and illegal) of the Hemisphere.

Any thoughts on this ?
gene
 
abrelosojos
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Tue Apr 04, 2006 11:01 pm

Actually, the flag now has 8 stars. Refer to this article for reference - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_Venezuela#2006_changes.

Cheers,
A.
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mrmeangenes
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Tue Apr 04, 2006 11:26 pm

Thank you very much for pointing out my error !

8 stars : 8 Member nations ?
gene
 
MD11Engineer
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Tue Apr 04, 2006 11:45 pm

An interesting point:

Quote:

Venezuela claims that the Essequibo is the true border between it and Guyana, claiming all territory west of it (roughly 70% of Guyanese territory).

From: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Essequibo_River



It seems that Chavez has expansionist aspirations.

Jan
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drewfly
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Tue Apr 04, 2006 11:54 pm

It seems to me that Chavez is making himself out to be the Kim Jong of the West. He is creating a massive army to counter the 'threat' of an American invasion. Chavez has stated publicy that the US is planning to invade Venezuela, and this build up IMO can be seen as a continuation of that fear mongering rhetoric he has been sprouting. A recent alliance with Iran only reinforces what I see as the beginning of a new militaristic dictatorship in the Americas, picking up where Castro left off when he dies.

[Edited 2006-04-04 16:57:26]
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luisde8cd
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Wed Apr 05, 2006 12:19 am

Hi Gene,

As much as I believe Chavez is the worst president Venezuela has ever had, I think this 8th star has to do more with a historic Simon Bolivar wish of having an 8th star resembling the newly liberated province of Guayana.

With 8 stars we are still missing two important provinces that had a later incorporation to the independence cause which were: Maracaibo and Coro. MPs from those regions demanded ,during the writing of the new flag law, that if Guayana had its star then 2 more stars had to be added to represent Maracaibo and Coro so the flag would've had 10 stars instead of 8. Their efforts failed because of superior orders coming from Miraflores Palace (or La Habana?).

I rule out that the extra star means an axis of leftist countries or anything like that.

Regarding weapons.... well, he's only buying weapons from Russia in order to piss off the US. The equipment he is trying to buy from Spain is only for surveilliance, it can't be used as offensive weaponary. Again this is just to piss off the USA which had been our main arms supplier.

Saludos desde Caracas,
Luis
 
mrmeangenes
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Wed Apr 05, 2006 12:24 am

See that ? Luis, with a few sentences,cures me of my wild surmise !

Thank you, Luis, for your prompt and gentlemanly response.  ashamed 
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luisde8cd
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Wed Apr 05, 2006 12:30 am

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 3):
Venezuela claims that the Essequibo is the true border between it and Guyana, claiming all territory west of it (roughly 70% of Guyanese territory).

This claim goes back to the 19th century when the British Empire unilaterally annexed the Venezuelan esequibo. By the time they did so, Venezuela was a war-torn country that was in the middle of a Civil War. We were deep in poverty and most of the male population had died or was wounded in the war.

Venezuela requested help from the US beacuse the British refused to hold diplomatic talks with a non-white govertment. The US intervined and agreed to represent Venezuela's interest in the talks that took place in London.

The aftermath of that round of talks is the current border between Venezuela and Guyana. The US said they did help us because they convinced the British not to set the border on the Orinoco River!. Apparentely British's ambitions included the gold rich Orinoco basin.

By the time Guyana won its independence from the UK in the 1960s, the Venezuelan govt. held talks with its new guyanese counterpart and signed a declaration that says that the Treaty signed by the US and UK in the 1800s was null and void and that a new treaty had to be signed.

The Venezuelan esequibo is part of all Venezuelan maps with a small note saying: Area in Dispute. Most of the Venezuelan esequibo guyanese population cross freely the unguarded border into Venezuela to buy medicine, go to the doctor, give their kids education, etc.... all of this is because the lack of interest by the Guyanese govt. to provide basic services to their people west of the Esequibo. It is worth reminding that the majority of the Guyanese population lives East of the Esequibo. Most of the guyanese that live west of the esequibo wish to become part of Venezuela.

Saludos desde Caracas,
Luis
 
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Wed Apr 05, 2006 12:33 am

Quoting Luisde8cd (Reply 5):
I rule out that the extra star means an axis of leftist countries or anything like that.

I think I agree.

I believe Sr. Chavez understands that it is more fun being a strutting banty rooster spitting defiance at the US than being a dead, deposed dictator - which would be the inevitable result if he posed a serious threat to the "stability" of the Western Hemisphere.

We've seen it with Libya and a host of other countries. Hell, we've seen it with no less a personage than Fidel himself, making an agreement with the Soviet Union to put their missiles on his island to "defend" it against US imperialism. Ultimately he backed down or he would now be forty years dead.

I don't think the US ever wanted any real empire in Latin America and so, we have never really been any threat to their sovereignty. What we want is "trading partners" which means that their own local robber barons can do local crowd control - we'll just be a market.
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Derico
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Wed Apr 05, 2006 5:02 am

You serious? Chavez invading Brazil or Argentina? That's insane. Maybe he has some crazy plans for a new Greater Venezuela (used to be Gran Colombia), but the Southern Cone were never part of that, much less Portuguese Brazil. Why would he do that?

He can field 2 million troops if he wants to, but how would he managed the supply lines for starters? I don't know about Brazil, but you can't seriously believe Venezuela would win an industrial war with Brazil... ?

As for Argentina, Argentina's Air Force is still the among the best in the hemisphere. Right now the equipment is outdated, but with a great renewal of it's technological base underway soon, plus the skill and tactical experience of it's pilots by far the best in the region, Chavez would be crazy to attack. His standing army would be blown to bits from the air alone.

Argentina's navy is no match for 1st world powers, but it is actually very modern with ships from the 1990s and younger, and I'm sure larger than Venezuela's at least now. And with the most submarines in the region and 3 more on the way, how would Chavez say launch an invasion from the ocean? His ships would be bombed from the air (and even the British Navy suffered in that aspect), and from under the surface...

I don't see it. Chavez is a total loser in his speeches, but then again are many other presidents with their silly rhetoric.
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komododx
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Wed Apr 05, 2006 5:13 am

Colombia will never (mark my words) be incorporated into Venezuela. Let alone under the leadership of right-wing president Alvaro Uribe.

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mrmeangenes
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Wed Apr 05, 2006 8:44 am

Derico,when I posted, I was "thinking out loud" - and rather speculatively at that. Luis from Venezuela pointed out some interesting and clarifying facts-which led me to believe even Hugo was not that loco !

Old timers like me can embarrass themselves in public rather easily; so I'm glad I was among friends !
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slider
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Wed Apr 05, 2006 11:59 am

Chavez is aligned with Castro, and Chavez is aligned with Obrador.

Imagine a Venezuela, Cuba and Mexico united...and people still question why illegal aliens and unchecked borders are in fact a threat to US sovereignty?

Meangenes- I think the premise of your thread is not out of the realm of possibility. And should be considered seriously.
 
stirling
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Wed Apr 05, 2006 3:44 pm

Well isn't one of the main ideals of "Bolivarianism" promoting the unification of Latin America into one country?

If so, then I would say the answer to the question is "Yes".
No matter how crazy the idea might be in reality.
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komododx
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Wed Apr 05, 2006 8:31 pm

Quoting Stirling (Reply 13):
If so, then I would say the answer to the question is "Yes".
No matter how crazy the idea might be in reality.

The idea ain't crazy. Of course, it's really easy to assume that all the people in Latin America are poor and embrace Chavez's so called revolution. As said previously, ain't gonna happen in Colombia, or in several other LatAm countries for that matter.

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stirling
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Thu Apr 06, 2006 12:00 am

Quoting Komododx (Reply 14):
The idea ain't crazy. Of course, it's really easy to assume that all the people in Latin America are poor and embrace Chavez's so called revolution. As said previously, ain't gonna happen in Colombia, or in several other LatAm countries for that matter.

I do not understand your response.
You say the idea of Bolivarianism isn't crazy, yet you say it will never happen in Colombia, or other nations for that fact.
For someone to be a proponent of an ideal like Hugo is of this, and for this ideal to be universally opposed over much of the territory he has his eyes on, to me, is crazy, at least wishful thinking.

Just finished watching the documentary on the recall election. The passion this man instills in people is something to behold...both negative, and positive.

Unlike other parts of the world where politics is mostly an afterthought. I can be sitting in a pub next to someone who dislikes Blair, but his animus towards the man ends at the end of the chat...soon the conversation is on to football, or the weather, or the upcoming holiday in Spain...the matter of politics is over, and mostly forgotten.

There is almost a wait and see attitude. People may not like what Blair does, but that could easily be swayed by tomorrow's headline. Those that REALLY love the guy, (And I haven't met any of those) aren't displaying the kind of behaviour we see Chavex supporters possess.

However in Venezuela, it is either deep passionate love for this man Chavez, or black hatred....no middle ground.
Be afraid of the polarizing figures...and this guy is totally black and white.
That is right scary stuff, coming from a man on the outside looking in.
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komododx
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Thu Apr 06, 2006 12:22 am

Quoting Stirling (Reply 15):
You say the idea of Bolivarianism isn't crazy, yet you say it will never happen in Colombia, or other nations for that fact.

It isn't crazy in the sense that it existed in the past (Gran Colombia anyone?). It might not be so crazy if there was a middle-of-the-road, right-of-center (or left-of-center for that matter) leader. However, Chavez is seen as a mad man by many in Latin America. And although left-wing governments may rise to power, the truth is that the elite in the better countries in Latin America won't let a mad man like Chavez come to power (I think a lesson has been learned from Venezuela's case). Unfortunately, the leftist media portray Chavez as a savior of the poor... which is untrue. We're talking about people that literally have nothing. Sure, give 'em a few bucks in exchange of support, but if you look closely, is that really what these people need? These people need educational reform, for starters. Ain't gonna happen. On top of this, it seems Venezuela is going the way of Bolivia in reclaiming it's natural resources' explotation from the major corporation. Sure, you can argue that this is what's best for a country, but not when you have a corrupt mad man as a leader.

Quoting Stirling (Reply 15):

However in Venezuela, it is either deep passionate love for this man Chavez, or black hatred....no middle ground.
Be afraid of the polarizing figures...and this guy is totally black and white.
That is right scary stuff, coming from a man on the outside looking in.

I think my point above explains this. The dirt poor don't care, as long as they get a few bucks every month. Add to them Chavez's corrupt goons (Alvaray and Chacon) plus those who fear him, and you have the "pro" side of it. On the other side you have the elite which, despite their money and power, are slowly getting screwed, along with the middle class, which is and will end up being the biggest loser of all this.

I think the major question is... how and when are we going to get rid of him?

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PDPsol
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Thu Apr 06, 2006 12:23 am

Quoting Slider (Reply 12):
Imagine a Venezuela, Cuba and Mexico united...and people still question why illegal aliens and unchecked borders are in fact a threat to US sovereignty?

Sorry, but what do Lopez de Obrador and Chavez have to do with illegal immigration? Also, Lopez de Obrador is a presidential candidate; he is not the president of Mexico.

Are you suggesting, should Lopez de Obrador win the presidential elections this year, he would attempt to send "secret agents" posing as illegal immigrants into the US? I can just imagine it; bus boys and gardeners threatening US national security...
 
mrmeangenes
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Thu Apr 06, 2006 5:17 am

Quoting Pdpsol (Reply 17):
Are you suggesting, should Lopez de Obrador win the presidential elections this year, he would attempt to send "secret agents" posing as illegal immigrants into the US? I can just imagine it; bus boys and gardeners threatening US national security...

I think some folks were worried Venezuela and Mexico might pool their petroleum resources-then cut the US supply off.(Mexico has discovered a huge offshore supply.)

I doubt it.
gene
 
stirling
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Thu Apr 06, 2006 11:48 am

Quoting Komododx (Reply 16):
It might not be so crazy if there was a middle-of-the-road, right-of-center (or left-of-center for that matter) leader. However, Chavez is seen as a mad man by many in Latin America. And although left-wing governments may rise to power, the truth is that the elite in the better countries in Latin America won't let a mad man like Chavez come to power (I think a lesson has been learned from Venezuela's case).

Thank you for the explanation.

During this documentary I mentioned that I watched, they showed a scene shot during one of Chavez's home/property giveaways. What a "dog and pony show"!
How many homes/properties does he actually give away? And how many people live in the country?
I can see how he has the poor and uneducated eating out of his hand.

So how long do we think he will last? And who is waiting off in the wings to take his place?
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luisde8cd
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Thu Apr 06, 2006 12:17 pm

Quoting Stirling (Reply 19):
How many homes/properties does he actually give away? And how many people live in the country?

During his first year of goverment, he promised to giveaway 100.000 houses each year but in reality by 2005's years end he had only givenaway 115.000, which equals to aprox. 19.170 houses per year. Not even 20% of what he promised.

Venezuela's population is around 26 million of which aprox 2 million are foreigners.

Saludos desde Caracas,
Luis
 
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TheRedBaron
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Thu Apr 06, 2006 1:30 pm

Lopez Obrador could win Mexico Presidency (it looks not very posible now), but even if he is a big Chavez Buddy, the majority of Mexico Population hates Chavez (at least the polls hav shown that).


So dont worry the Canada/USA/Mexico Meeting last Week in CUN, was good according to FOX and he said that He and GWB talked about Chavez and foreign affairs, and Fox was really happy..I really wonder what they talked about?
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luisde8cd
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Thu Apr 06, 2006 2:01 pm

Quoting Derico (Reply 9):

He can field 2 million troops if he wants to, but how would he managed the supply lines for starters? I don't know about Brazil, but you can't seriously believe Venezuela would win an industrial war with Brazil... ?

How could Chavez think about invading his two most important allies in S. America? it's completely nonsense.

Quoting Derico (Reply 9):
Chavez would be crazy to attack. His standing army would be blown to bits from the air alone.

Well let me tell you that if there ever was a war between ARG and VEN, I wouldn't give more than 2 days before the ARG air force would be disabled. Venezuela's air force is indeed one of the most powerful south of the Rio Grande (if not the most powerful). The F-16s alongside the recently upgraded Mirages and the upgraded F-5s are no match to A-4s and outdated Mirages. You have to remember that the F-16 Venezuelan pilots used to participate in the Red Flag excersices in Nellis AFB in Nevada. In two occassions they scored higher than the Israeli pilots which are the best in the world.

I don't believe it's a coincidence that Colombia's claims over Venezuela Golf's water stopped after the incident in the gulf's waters in the mid 80s when a wing of F16s and Mirages flew over a Colombian frigate that was inside Venezuela's territorial waters. The frigate quickly turned back and withdrew at full speed especially after the captain saw the Exocets under the Mirages.

The FAV is expecting the delivery of brand new Embraer AMX trainer-jets to replace the Tucanos and is in talks with Embraer to buy a couple of E145 Survelliance Jets.

Saludos desde Caracas,
Luis
 
monteycarlos
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Thu Apr 06, 2006 9:54 pm

Will someone hurry up and get this guy out of there before he does some real damage?

The guy is the definition of an idiot.
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TheRedBaron
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Thu Apr 06, 2006 10:00 pm

Sadly the way Latin America Politic are being played out (rich are bad people, poor people have the right to power etc) will eventually colapse some governments and some f them will resort to war in the effort to stay in power, it happened in the 80 with the Argentine Junta and the Falklands War, and Chavez is the perfect Wacko to do it....
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luisde8cd
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Thu Apr 06, 2006 10:42 pm

Quoting Theredbaron (Reply 21):
was good according to FOX and he said that He and GWB talked about Chavez and foreign affairs, and Fox was really happy..I really wonder what they talked about?

I also wonder about the same thing, interesting huh?

Saludos desde Caracas,
Luis
 
komododx
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Thu Apr 06, 2006 11:34 pm

Quoting Stirling (Reply 19):
How many homes/properties does he actually give away? And how many people live in the country?
I can see how he has the poor and uneducated eating out of his hand.

So how long do we think he will last? And who is waiting off in the wings to take his place?

Those are the two major question marks. How long will he last and, more importantly, who would replace him? The opposition seems to be totally shunned off over there.

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slider
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Thu Apr 06, 2006 11:36 pm

Quoting Pdpsol (Reply 17):
Sorry, but what do Lopez de Obrador and Chavez have to do with illegal immigration? Also, Lopez de Obrador is a presidential candidate; he is not the president of Mexico.

The calculus is such:

Fox has been openly defiant, demanding that the US allow unchecked illegal immigration from Mexico (considering Mexico's #1 revenue source is their citizens' transmittals, I wonder why!). We are near a breaking point in this country.

Lopez Obrador is more of a radical....can you imagine how pugnacious he would be if he wins? Since he is aligned with Chavez, it's clear that the PR campaign would be that "the US is the source of our poverty...exploiting us, blah, blah, blah..." Just like you see in the Middle East. Hence, not only do no necessary reforms not take place within Mexico, but the situation gets worse, tension grows, the border becomes a warzone, international diplomacy gets strained, etc....
 
komododx
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Thu Apr 06, 2006 11:59 pm

Something tells me Lopez Obrador is full of sh!t. I was reading an article on the WSJ on how he's been attacking the major banks in Mexico (many owned by international banks such as Citi and HSBC). His plan was to give more power in the form of operating licenses to smaller local banks. Too bad this backfired when he tried to fund a big project as Mexico City's mayor and had to eventually resort to Banamex, a subsidiary of Citibank.

I highly doubt Lopez Obrador would become another Chavez.

By the way, who is running against him?

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PDPsol
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Fri Apr 07, 2006 12:09 am

Quoting Slider (Reply 27):
Fox has been openly defiant, demanding that the US allow unchecked illegal immigration from Mexico

"Openly defiant", what are you talking about? President Fox is one of our strongest allies. Both President Bush and President Fox see eye-to-eye on reforming US immigration policy. The opposition to our Administration's immigration policy is not from foreign states, but from WITHIN the Republican party.

Also, President Fox has never "demanded" the US "allow unchecked illegal immigration". This statement is patently false.

Quoting Slider (Reply 27):
Lopez Obrador is more of a radical....can you imagine how pugnacious he would be if he wins? Since he is aligned with Chavez, it's clear that the PR campaign would be that "the US is the source of our poverty...exploiting us, blah, blah, blah..." Just like you see in the Middle East. Hence, not only do no necessary reforms not take place within Mexico, but the situation gets worse, tension grows, the border becomes a warzone, international diplomacy gets strained, etc....

A lot of confusing and unsubstantiated scary statements in this post.

While Hugo Chavez may very well assume Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador [AMLO] would offer him his support following a presidential victory in July, there is no reason to believe this will actually materialize. One only need to analyze Lula's experience in Brazil and Kirchner's in Argentina to understand "leftist" ideology does not translate to unwavering support for Chavez.

AMLO is not Evo Morales and Mexico is certainly not Bolivia.

Also, what's this about "the border becomes a warzone"? What are you talking about? Why would anyone believe our border with Mexico would become a "warzone"?
 
stirling
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Fri Apr 07, 2006 1:11 am

Quoting Luisde8cd (Reply 22):
How could Chavez think about invading his two most important allies in S. America? it's completely nonsense.

I was thinking there is more ways than all out War to get what he wants in South America.....

Does Chavez have the money, and the know-how to fund political parties in other nations? Without leaving a trail?

The way I see it, this Bolivarian philosophy could take hold in many countries, independent, for now, from Chavez.

But once they come to power, the mask comes off revealing their close ties.
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Derico
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Fri Apr 07, 2006 1:53 am

Quoting Luisde8cd (Reply 22):
Well let me tell you that if there ever was a war between ARG and VEN, I wouldn't give more than 2 days before the ARG air force would be disabled. Venezuela's air force is indeed one of the most powerful south of the Rio Grande (if not the most powerful). The F-16s alongside the recently upgraded Mirages and the upgraded F-5s are no match to A-4s and outdated Mirages. You have to remember that the F-16 Venezuelan pilots used to participate in the Red Flag excersices in Nellis AFB in Nevada. In two occassions they scored higher than the Israeli pilots which are the best in the world.

If it was fought today yes. I did point out Argentina's air force is totally outdated, so I was agreeing with you there. Every country in this hemisphere has been updating their air forces EXCEPT Argentina.

Until this point that money has been investing in electricty grids, a new interprovincial expressway system, and other areas, which should in the medium run place it's infraestructure light years ahead of all other countries in the region whom in the meantime spent money on guns.

But at some point Argentina won't sit around while even Bolivia gets better planes, don't you think?

But I think you are kidding yourself is Venezuela can win an offensive war against anyone.
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komododx
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Fri Apr 07, 2006 2:05 am

Quoting Derico (Reply 31):

But I think you are kidding yourself is Venezuela can win an offensive war against anyone.

I think you're kidding yourself for not believing it. Venezuela's military forces (esp the Air Force) are quite superior. Check this out.

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Derico
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Fri Apr 07, 2006 2:11 am

Stefano, quite superior to whom? Please.

And even if I accept that premise, I'd like to know how LOGISTICALLY speaking they could conduct and wage an offensive war against another country over four borders and an ocean away... and win. And then occupy it and spend the money needed to do so.
 laughing 

If you like thinking Venezuela could invade all of South America, ok.
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komododx
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Fri Apr 07, 2006 2:55 am

Quoting Derico (Reply 31):
But I think you are kidding yourself is Venezuela can win an offensive war against anyone



Quoting Derico (Reply 33):
If you like thinking Venezuela could invade all of South America, ok.

I'm sure it would deliver a can of whoopass to your country any minute. Did I say all of South America? No, because you pondered the idea of Venezuela winning an offensive war against anyone. I could name you quite a few number of countries that would be defeated due to Venezuela's Air Force power.

Quoting Derico (Reply 33):
quite superior to whom?

Colombia, for starters. Although Colombia's Navy and Marines are very strong. Not the Air Force, though. Let's see, Suriname, Guyana, Ecuador, Bolivia. Would they? Probably not, but you'd be surprised of Venezuela's military power.

Venezuela's Military

Go look at FAV's link I gave above again.

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PPVRA
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Sout

Fri Apr 07, 2006 3:05 am

I'd say the best equiped Airforce in the continent, as far as fighters goes, is the FACH... not sure about their logistics, though. And they seem kinda small (small-ish country...).

We got upgraded F5s and AMXs... and the Tucanos, both versions. The Mirages are retired.

Quoting Luisde8cd (Reply 22):

The FAV is expecting the delivery of brand new Embraer AMX trainer-jets to replace the Tucanos and is in talks with Embraer to buy a couple of E145 Survelliance Jets.

Well I doubt that's gonna happen... I'm sure there is plenty of U.S. content on both aircrafts for the U.S. to block any sales.. like it just happened with the Super Tucanos. The FAV is now talking about going Russian instead.

Cheers
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Fri Apr 07, 2006 3:17 am

Quoting Komododx (Reply 34):
Colombia, for starters. Although Colombia's Navy and Marines are very strong. Not the Air Force, though. Let's see, Suriname, Guyana, Ecuador, Bolivia. Would they? Probably not, but you'd be surprised of Venezuela's military power

Komodox,

I'm not arguing Venezuela's Air Force. In my original post I said that NOW Argentina could not win against Bolivia with it's Air Force. Because:

-Chile has bought F-16s
-Venezuela's modern equipment
-Colombia's US supply line
-Peruvian updating of it's airforce
-Brazil

Every single country in the hemisphere has invested in it's Air Force but Argentina.

I just don't see how Venezuela could invade another country. You can't invade a country and take territory just with an Air Force...
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komododx
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Fri Apr 07, 2006 3:23 am

Quoting Derico (Reply 36):
In my original post I said that NOW Argentina could not win against Bolivia with it's Air Force.

Ahhh I see. I guess I have to reread before posting!

Quoting Derico (Reply 36):
I just don't see how Venezuela could invade another country.

Me either. Besides, other countries would get involved, it would only be a mess

Quoting Derico (Reply 36):
You can't invade a country and take territory just with an Air Force...

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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Fri Apr 07, 2006 3:33 am

That's ok, I did not make myself totally clear either so it's not a problem.

Quite honestly what bothers me is that in the United States they always seem to imply thru their newschannels that in Latin America everyone is a monolithic ignorant mass that will just follow someone like an automaton.

Chavez may be 'romantically' popular in large sectors of the region's society, but that is mainly in the Andean Nations, and there the whol thing has in fact whether people like to admit it or not, racial undertones (indian vs non-indian). I don't think he (Chavez) is even that popular in Central America, a region that seems to have become very stable politically I seem to notice. (good for them)
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mrmeangenes
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Fri Apr 07, 2006 4:41 am

This discussion really expanded !

There is, of course, more than one way to "take over" a hemisphere. The military power is useful for putting down small,lightly armed insurrections,rather than attacking outright.

I have heard-true or not-Chavez is trying to export his brand of government by backing guerrillas in Colombia and other places. Che tried the same thing a generation earlier,but made several strategic mistakes.

These days, revolution can be carried out in plain sight via the ballot box.
One merely has to masquerade as a "reformer" or a populist,or "social democrat"; and to be prepared to buy huge chunks of advertising,and to bribe those who may be useful.

Once the election is done,and the smiling new leaders are sworn in,one may tighten the net almost imperceptibly by doing as Chavez is now doing: warning the people they are in danger of a Gringo invasion,arresting any opposition leaders as "spies" or provocateurs,recruiting and emplacing little armies of informers,nationalizing unpopular businesses,etc.

Five years down the road,you can start up your firing squads,and rounding up "undersirable" and "anti-social" elements.

As the Mafiosi say: "Badda-bing-badda-boom !"
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Fri Apr 07, 2006 5:04 am

Quoting Derico (Reply 38):
Chavez may be 'romantically' popular in large sectors of the region's society, but that is mainly in the Andean Nations, and there the whol thing has in fact whether people like to admit it or not, racial undertones (indian vs non-indian).

Derico, I must say I COMPLETELY agree with your analysis here. Other than an idealistic affiliation with his 'anti-imperialistic' rhetoric, Chavez holds no political sway in the southern Cone nations of Argentina, Brasil, Chile and Uruguay.

Voters in the region now realize what a crazy whack-job Chavez is and know they want nothing to do with the man. Peru is facing presidential elections this weekend and poll numbers for Lourdes Flores have been increasing, with greater skepticism regarding Ollanta Humala.

Voters in Mexico also know of the danger associated with Chavez. The PAN candidate, Calderon, is effectively portraying AMLO as maintaining a dangerous association with Chavez.

Chavez stirs very, very powerful emotions among the vast majority native Indian and mestizo communities in the Andean region, especially Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador. However, the more he rants, the more he screams and the more he freaks out over 'evil Americans' and the 'devilish white oligarchy', the more credibility he LOSES!
 
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Fri Apr 07, 2006 5:19 am

Quoting Pdpsol (Reply 29):
President Fox is one of our strongest allies. Both President Bush and President Fox see eye-to-eye on reforming US immigration policy.

Yeah, that's the freaking problem! They see eye to eye on destroying the borders.

Quoting Pdpsol (Reply 29):
Also, President Fox has never "demanded" the US "allow unchecked illegal immigration". This statement is patently false.

http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/01/10/D8F1LRCO5.html

Sorry, wrong. Headline: "Mexico Demands U.S. Allow More Immigration" Go Google a plethora of info on this...they have been rather bold in how they've diplomatically tried to steer our ship on this. Fox claims to want to keep Mexicans in Mexico, offering free tuition to students, etc, but with a *wink, wink* tells those here to keep those checks coming!!

Fox has his largest revenue source (the remittances from Mexicans here) to risk.

Quoting Pdpsol (Reply 29):
Also, what's this about "the border becomes a warzone"? What are you talking about? Why would anyone believe our border with Mexico would become a "warzone"?

You haven't read about the border melees? The increasing frequency of hostilities, albeit still minor conflagrations, along the border? Where have you been?
 
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Fri Apr 07, 2006 5:34 am

I read in the newspaper today that Chávez is training a Civil Guard which will fight off a US military invasion of Venezuela, which Hugo considers imminent. That US invasion is supposed to be launched, according to him, from the Netherlands Antilles.

Full article (in Spanish, requires free registration): http://www.nacion.com/ln_ee/2006/abril/06/mundo0.html

I still have a very vivid image of those uprisings in April of 2002, when Chávez crushed them with all of his power. Even though I watched that on TV, it still shocked me to see such a thing live and uncensored (that was duing the time we got one of the independent Venezuelan TV networks (most likely Globovisión) here in Costa Rica through cable). Chávez is a madman and has to be deposed.

[Edited 2006-04-06 22:49:01]
 
abrelosojos
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Fri Apr 07, 2006 12:19 pm

Until the elite of Latin America get off their privileged horses and recognize the need for a just society, people like Chavez will continue to get popular support.

-A.
Live, and let live.
 
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Sat Apr 08, 2006 2:29 am

Quoting Abrelosojos (Reply 43):
Until the elite of Latin America get off their privileged horses and recognize the need for a just society, people like Chavez will continue to get popular support.

Exactly- that's why they need internal reforms so badly....these radical populists, who point to the bogeyman up north, get traction based on false--and dangerous--premises.

That's why this really is a powderkeg of sorts...
 
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Southern

Sat Apr 08, 2006 3:23 am

Quoting Abrelosojos (Reply 43):
Until the elite of Latin America get off their privileged horses and recognize the need for a just society, people like Chavez will continue to get popular support.

That is why there is little risk of Chavez gaining ground in Argentina: large middle class (and growing again), far less of disparity between the wealthy and the poor, plus already Argentina has probably the most progressive social structure with free universities, health care for the poor, etc, which none of our neighbors have.
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RE: Does Hugo Chavez Have "Takeover" Plan For Sout

Sat Apr 08, 2006 5:12 am

Quoting Derico (Reply 45):
free universities

We have that. Or did, now it depends on your income IIRC.

Quoting Derico (Reply 45):
health care for the poor

In theory, ya, we do, too...

None of the above are rights, though. And it's questionable ho fair the system is.

None of the governments business IMO.

Cheers
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