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kc135topboom
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Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:10 pm

The North Koreans reportedly have ready and fueled a Taepodong II missile, an ICBM, for test firing. It appears all they need is good weather in the launch area.

In response, the US has declared their missle defense shied bases in Alaska and California as "operational". Additionally, the USN aegis cruiser USS Lake Erie, CG-70, part of the defense shield and equipped with SM-3 missiles, is also declared "operational".

If NK test fires their ICBM, should the US attempt to shoot it down? If the US does shoot it down, how will the NK know it was shot down and not a missile failure?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060620/us_nm/arms_usa_missile_dc_2

http://www.washtimes.com/national/20060620-123010-4554r.htm

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0a0f2300-006e-11db-8078-0000779e2340.html
 
Lt-AWACS
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 12:49 pm

I don't mean to sound like a d!ck here with this, but is the other option to let it hit the USA?... or are you getting at the fact we should "lt it fail" if we somehow know that is going to happen. I could see the argument for that in some of the links you post, but I would aim to shoot it down ASAP and not hope for failure. Of course it is early here and the soccer riots kept me up  Sad so I am groggy and cholo-esq at the moment.

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greaser
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 2:21 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
If NK test fires their ICBM, should the US attempt to shoot it down? If the US does shoot it down, how will the NK know it was shot down and not a missile failure?

You can't hide such a launch from anyone. Besides, we'll need to lob more than just 1 of them, since our chances are 50%, they will know if we launch, but will they know if the missiles hit their ICBM?
Pentagon has already stated it wont shoot anything down unless it's a direct threat to the US, but the decision on whether it would be a threat will be most certainly determined within the first minutes of flight.
Now you're really flying
 
pbottenb
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 2:29 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
If NK test fires their ICBM, should the US attempt to shoot it down? If the US does shoot it down, how will the NK know it was shot down and not a missile failure?

I'm not an expert on this, so please humor me....but, wont we consider a launch over Japan a threat to an ally? If we want them to help pay for it in the long run shouldnt we pull the trigger just to see if we can do it?

If we hit it then its a big victory, if we miss, it shows our resolve and gives us valuable data...who gives a rats ass what anyone else thinks. As far as showing our hand to the russkies and chinese...they probably have all the data they need anyway.....

Am I wrong on this?
 
TedTAce
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 4:08 pm

I dunno, unless it's comming at the US, we have too many options, and Inaction would likely be best.

Now if it is comming at us we have a tough choice. A) pray the payload is innocuous and watch what happens B) Risk looking like the fools we are for spending trillions on SDI that doesn't work. Either way, the US targeted scenario is not good at all. I'd rather see an Ageis just outside N Korea launch a few missles at it on it's way up. If that works (which I hope it should as aiming at one missle is easier then filtering out the warheads from possible debris) NK has a LOT of egg on it's face.
This space intentionally left blank
 
L-188
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 4:15 pm

We probably shouldn't despite how much fun it would be. The Diplomatic issues probably woudn't be it.

But you can be that everybody manning the NMDS is going to be trying to track that shot.
OBAMA-WORST PRESIDENT EVER....Even SKOORB would be better.
 
bjornstrom
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 5:09 pm

If North Korea is using the same trajectory as last time (overflying Japan) surely this must be considered a target for the JSDF.

Would a Patriot to the trick?

Firing a ICBM towards USA is suicide and even North Korea wouldn't try that since it would trigger a strike against all remaining ICBM's almost immediately (probably conventional though).
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aislepathlight
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 5:51 pm

Quoting Bjornstrom (Reply 6):

Would a Patriot to the trick?

Please tell me that you are joking. A patriot couldn't shoot down anything, no matter how crappy or North Korean it is.

I say let it go, and see what happens. If you attempt to shoot it down, you either miss and look like a fool, or you hit the missile and really piss the North Koreans off, not that they aren't pissed enough already.
bleepbloop
 
Tancrede
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 8:45 pm

At least, we could see the true of your anti-missile system, and see really were all your taxpayers money went. And of course, good-bye the myth, welcome to the reality of the ballistic missile’s world.
 
Greyhound
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 11:11 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
If NK test fires their ICBM, should the US attempt to shoot it down?

Yes.

signed,
Alaska and the Pacific Northwest.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
If the US does shoot it down, how will the NK know it was shot down and not a missile failure?

I would assume they at least have some sort of radar that could track a shot.... I honestly don't think even THEY are stupid enough to press a button and take bets on where the sucker will land.
29th, Let's Go!
 
mrmeangenes
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 11:16 pm

Quoting Tancrede (Reply 8):
At least, we could see the true of your anti-missile system, and see really were all your taxpayers money went. And of course, good-bye the myth, welcome to the reality of the ballistic missile’s world.

Mais oui ! It would give your intelligence service something to do-assuming Africa is not keeping them too busy.
gene
 
mt99
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 11:17 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
If the US does shoot it down,



Quoting Tancrede (Reply 8):
At least, we could see the true of your anti-missile system, and see really were all your taxpayers money went. And of course, good-bye the myth, welcome to the reality of the ballistic missile’s world.

What if the US tries to shoot it down - and it fails..

Hasnt this system failed before in tests?
Step into my office, baby
 
Leezyjet
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 11:19 pm

What would China's response be towards NK if they launched an attack on the US for real ?. Would they back them or leave them to face the consequences ?.

Probably would matter anyway though as it would all be over in a matter of minutes !!!.

 Smile
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wardialer
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 11:28 pm

At what ALTITUDE and SPEED does the Taepodong II missile cruise at? Does anyone know here? If not, is there a website that has all those specifications such as speed, range, and cruising altitude?
 
AeroWesty
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 11:31 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Thread starter):
If NK test fires their ICBM, should the US attempt to shoot it down? If the US does shoot it down, how will the NK know it was shot down and not a missile failure?

We have the right to shoot down any missile aimed and fired at the U.S. anywhere along its path whether lethal or not.

Period.
International Homo of Mystery
 
RichardPrice
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 11:36 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 14):
We have the right to shoot down any missile aimed and fired at the U.S. anywhere along its path whether lethal or not.

Canada has already disagreed with you on that one.
 
Dougloid
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 11:43 pm

Here's what I wrote about it the other day on my blog.

It is being widely reported today that the North Koreans-you know, those wonderful folks from north of the 38th parallel who brought you the Korean War, abductions of Japanese women off the street, mass starvation, refried Scud missiles for all able to pay for them, counterfeit money, factory made methamphetamine, brainwashing, and the Pueblo hijacking-where was I?

Oh yes. I remember now. The folks from Pyongyang, taking time from paying eternal homage to Big Daddy Kim Jong-il and Papa Kim Il-sung are getting ready to test launch the latest iteration of their attempt at an I.C.B.M. if you are old enough to shiver a bit at the term.

This one is the Taepodong-2, and it features a modified Scud-C sitting on top of a No-dong 1. It is alleged to have a range of 5,000 km and is capable of launching-well, anything you'd like, really.

Rumor has it the Iranians and the Pakistanis are interested in acquiring more Dong technology. It is also suggested that it's merely an attempt by these folks to acquire some independent satellite launching capabilities. If this is the case, one might say there is a shortage of Dong in those countries.

Time will tell. At this point it is said fueling is going on, and if that is true, it is a dicey proposition to defuel the at that point extremely hazardous missile. One might also suppose that the missile cannot sit there forever with its load of fuel and oxidizers on board.

So if the missile has been fueled, it will most likely be fired unless they're filling it up with tap water and making a big show of things for the spy satellites that are parked overhead. It's also reported that the weather in the region is somewhat overcast but a peek at the weather map shows a bit of clearing toward the end of the week. Chances are, the best time for a shot should be on Thursday. On the other hand, the I.C.B.M. people do not get to choose the time of launching if the fat's in the fire so it could come anytime.

I dunno. "This Dong's for you! This Dong's for you! And this Dong's for you and you!" is starting to sound like that Jackie Mason schtick on the Ed Sullivan show a few years ago, but it is one that people are getting upset over. What's even more puzzling is how much power can be controlled by two of the ugliest people who ever lorded it over their fellows. The interesting thing about Kim Jong-il is how chubby he is-in a country where square meals are as scarce as prairie chickens.

The best result for everyone would be if the damned thing blows up on the launch pad.
If you believe in coincidence, you haven't looked close enough-Joe Leaphorn
 
RichardPrice
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Wed Jun 21, 2006 11:49 pm

This might interest some people here, its a tourists tour of North Korea with photos.

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?t=82755
 
md80fanatic
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 12:02 am

Quoting Wardialer (Reply 13):
At what ALTITUDE and SPEED does the Taepodong II missile cruise at? Does anyone know here? If not, is there a website that has all those specifications such as speed, range, and cruising altitude?

Wasn't the last NK test warhead found in Alaska?

http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/nati...n/200303/kt2003030417272311970.htm


I am not sure of this, but I think that a missile expected to travel that far must do so via "space". I don't think there is near enough fuel aboard to thrust continuously through the atmosphere. My guess is that they will boost to some level of "orbit" and then use small thrusters to ultimately manuever to a re-entry point. The missile speed must be escape velocity or greater (~25000 miles per hour).
 
RichardPrice
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 12:16 am

Quoting MD80fanatic (Reply 18):

I am not sure of this, but I think that a missile expected to travel that far must do so via "space". I don't think there is near enough fuel aboard to thrust continuously through the atmosphere. My guess is that they will boost to some level of "orbit" and then use small thrusters to ultimately manuever to a re-entry point. The missile speed must be escape velocity or greater (~25000 miles per hour).

Ever wondered what the BM in ICBM stands for? Ballistic Missile.

An ICBM typically has a maximum 7 or 8 minute boost phase, getting it to something like maximum 7KM/second velocity, at a height of about 2000meters.

Then it starts the elipse phase under pure momentum, taking it to around 12000KM altitude, before earths gravity causes it to start the descent phase, during which it releases the warheads. No manouevering thrusters, just a pure simple ballistic trajectory because it doesnt achieve orbital speed.
 
mrmeangenes
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 12:31 am

Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 15):
Canada has already disagreed with you on that one.

Explain to me why the US-if it feels it is going to be impacted by a NK missile- should give a crap about Canada's position in this matter. Is Canada going to send one of its RCMP Constables over to North Korea to say : "Here now,lads.You really shouldn't have fired that thing." ??

 Confused  Confused
gene
 
tbar220
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 12:32 am

Quoting Lt-AWACS (Reply 1):
I don't mean to sound like a d!ck here with this

Well you are talking about the Taepodong missile here. Its not that hard to sound like one...
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RichardPrice
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 12:45 am

Quoting Mrmeangenes (Reply 20):
Explain to me why the US-if it feels it is going to be impacted by a NK missile- should give a crap about Canada's position in this matter.

And thats the reason Canada pulled out - the vast majority of potential intercepts would be done over Canadian territory of missiles coming over the north pole, leaving massive amounts of nuclear material spread over Canada.

So would you also agree that Canada has a right to intercept US interception missiles, theorectically of course?  Smile
 
AeroWesty
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 12:47 am

Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 22):
So would you also agree that Canada has a right to intercept US interception missiles, theorectically of course?

Canada has the right to shoot down any missile they believe to be a threat to Canada, regardless of source.
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Greyhound
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 12:48 am

Quoting Tbar220 (Reply 21):
Quoting Lt-AWACS (Reply 1):
I don't mean to sound like a d!ck here with this

Well you are talking about the Taepodong missile here. Its not that hard to sound like one...

Taepo-what?  duck 
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md80fanatic
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 1:43 am

Understand Richard.

The ICBM designation is now somewhat "generic" when referring to armaments that span the globe in effective range. Not all warheads are brought to the target via a ballistic trajectory. Lately we have been seeing launch vehicles capable of manuevering multiple independently targetable warheads (MIRVs) over a large distance. If the bird can manuever then it can no longer be considered on a ballistic trajectory.
 
ANCFlyer
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 1:43 am

Once said missile leaves NK Air Space it then becomes a target of opportunity, and should be taken out forthwith.

I don't care if it's what the trajectory . . . once it is in International Airspace, it's a target. Take it out. Now.
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Mir
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 1:50 am

Quoting Pbottenb (Reply 3):
If we hit it then its a big victory, if we miss, it shows our resolve and gives us valuable data...

If we miss, it makes us look like idiots. That's why we should let it go, unless it's coming at us.

Quoting TedTAce (Reply 4):
Now if it is comming at us we have a tough choice.

Not a tough choice at all as far as I'm concerned. If it's coming at us, shoot it down. If it misses it misses, but you can't take the chance that they might have decided to "forget" to take the warheads out for the test.

Quoting Leezyjet (Reply 12):
What would China's response be towards NK if they launched an attack on the US for real ?. Would they back them or leave them to face the consequences ?.

I think China will back NK so long as they don't make the first move. Thus, NK has free reign to go right up to the brink of war, but not take the next step. The challenge for the US will be not to take the bait, because if they do, it'll get really nasty really quickly.

-Mir
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RichardPrice
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 1:54 am

Quoting MD80fanatic (Reply 25):
The ICBM designation is now somewhat "generic" when referring to armaments that span the globe in effective range. Not all warheads are brought to the target via a ballistic trajectory. Lately we have been seeing launch vehicles capable of manuevering multiple independently targetable warheads (MIRVs) over a large distance. If the bird can manuever then it can no longer be considered on a ballistic trajectory.

Actually even with MIRV capability, the warheads are still delivered ballistically to the targets - they are released at slightly different points on the descent phase. There is no thrust past the boost phase, so the trajectory is all ballistic from then onward until impact.

If it isnt a ballistic trajectory, it isnt an ICBM.
 
JGPH1A
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 1:55 am

I should hope they would try to shoot it down at least. However, given the test results from the Missile Defence System in the past, they may end up taking out another aspirin factory in Khartoum  Smile
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kaitak
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 2:57 am

I think it would be a huge risk for Kim to take. If the missile is launched and the Americans take it down, what then?

If the Americans fail, they can blame it on technology and the fact that the system was just being tested. There would be some annoyance expressed at official level (provided, of course, it didn't end up levelling half of LA) ...

But in the DPRK, the situation would be a lot different. Kim relies on the military, who get a vast proportion of the country's resources, to keep him in power and he cannot afford to be seen as weak in their eyes; to have a missile shot down and NOT to retaliate could be seen as that sign of weakness.

As it happens, the North Koreans have asked for talks about the missile test, which I read as looking to do a deal - give us money, food etc, etc, and we'll stop the test. It's blackmail, but unfortunately, it's worked before. No country should be allowed to behave like this; it's time America called Kim's bluff, once and for all. If he launches the missile, take it out and then the next move is over to him.
 
LSPA
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 3:07 am

yes they should Big grin would be some nice target practice and I would love to see th NK getting agitated about it  Smile
You have to set limits. And NK and WMD is a big no no.
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mrmeangenes
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 4:44 am

I suppose another alternative is to just let it fly-wherever-and land-wherever.

If it lands on Canada, we can shrug and say-very politely-"Well, we didn't want to overfly your airspace with our ordnance,and risk spare parts landing on you. That would have been awfully rude !"

If it lands on or near our "Left Coast", we could shrug and say: " You insisted our missile defense didn't work,and that it was a waste of money,so we decided not to intercept."
gene
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 10:51 am

Well, then let's get all the pictures we need, track it with Aegis Cruisers and Cobra Ball, then shoot it down.

Kim will be POd. Maybe enough to comb his hair.
 
KingAir200
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 11:34 am

It would be interesting to see what NK's response to that would be. Would it deter them, or just make them attempt to launch another at a later date? One thing's for sure though. Krazy Kim would freak out.

[Edited 2006-06-22 04:47:31]
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 11:43 am

Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 22):
the vast majority of potential intercepts would be done over Canadian territory of missiles coming over the north pole, leaving massive amounts of nuclear material spread over Canada.

Canada would recieve more contanimation from windborn fall-out from any blast south of their border than a hundred kilograms of Pu being obliterated hundreds of thousands of feet above the atmosphere.

Not to mention, any fragments could be tracked by radar and recovered by ground teams. It beats particulate matter that is impossible to economically clean, or having to re-build a city.

Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 22):
So would you also agree that Canada has a right to intercept US interception missiles, theorectically of course?

Thwarting an act of self-defense would be no better than an act of aggresion...
 
ltbewr
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 12:21 pm

Any test where the unnarmed missle is over 'international' waters should mean we get to try out our anti-missle technology. Busting up that missile would be very nasty to NK, although he would lie about it to his people. As others suggested, this is nothing but extortion by NK to get a payoff from the USA to NK not do these tests or sell missles or it's tech to others. As another said, lets hope this turkey blows up on the launch pad or maybe near it on live NK and world Television but not kill innocent NK's.
 
soyuzavia
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 12:24 pm

I've got a question.

Should North Korean shoot down US spyplanes?

Go back only a couple of weeks, and there have been several instances of RC-135s violating North Korean airspace. These violations occurred over a period of a few days.

Since then the North Korean military command, in a very unusual move, gave a public warning that they will shoot down any aircraft involved in spying over North Korean territory (land and/or water).

Also, since these spying incidents, planning of launches by North Korea have come up. They weren't talking of doing it before these spy flights violated North Korean airspace.

As much as the regime in North Korea is detestable, they have the RIGHT to not have their sovereignty violated and their hand seems to have been forced on this one. At the same time North Korea also has to respect the sovereignty of other nations.
 
jcs17
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 2:42 pm

So SoyuzAvia, you think its a good idea for North Korea to be able to "test" missles unannounced and without prior knowledge? I'm sure most Japanese, S. Koreans, Americans, and Canadians would strongly disagree with you. North Korea has a right to their soveriegnty militarily, only when it agrees to abide and take action on international sanctions placed against it.

The only people in North Korea who would know about an intercept is a select few in the military and the higher ranking government officials. The North Korean citizens and soldiers will be told that by the highest graces of Dear Leader, the missle test was a stunning success and left the US imperialists cowering. Remember folks, North Koreans don't see BBC or CNN International, they get Kim Headline News, they can't even hear foreign broadcasts on their radios.

I say shoot it down, if possible. What if we get into a situation where Kim decides to "test" his missles more frequently. What if one of these "test missles" has Seattle or Anchorage in its sights later on and we're still in "It's just a test" mode?
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darrenthe747
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 3:08 pm

this is what i don't understand... the US was all up in arms over the threat Iraq posed to us when a lot of us knew it wasn't. we are all caught up in a war over there that is depleting our military at a frightening rate. there are threats in the world like NK, or Iran that need our attention. NK is IMHO a real threat to us. If they shoot ANYTHING even remotly our direction it should be shot down no questions asked.
All animals are created equal, but some are more equal than others.
 
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HAWK21M
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 3:32 pm

I think if the US knocks the Missile out.It would be a very strong signal to the NK Administration.
regdsMEL
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darrenthe747
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 3:43 pm

Quoting HAWK21M (Reply 40):
I think if the US knocks the Missile out.It would be a very strong signal to the NK Administration

not to launch missiles in our direction.
All animals are created equal, but some are more equal than others.
 
itsjustme
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 4:18 pm

Quoting AislepathLight (Reply 7):
Please tell me that you are joking. A patriot couldn't shoot down anything, no matter how crappy or North Korean it is.

I'm just going from memory but didn't the patriot play a significant role in our defense against scud missiles the first time we paid a visit to Iraq in '91? I remember there was one tragic miss that resulted in the deaths of several American soldiers but wasn't that an isolated incident?
 
aaden
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 4:23 pm

Quoting AislepathLight (Reply 7):
Please tell me that you are joking. A patriot couldn't shoot down anything, no matter how crappy or North Korean it is.

those missiles are 50% hit or miss on targets so they're not useless.
we just shoot 5 at one missile.
 
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scbriml
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 4:55 pm

Quoting AislepathLight (Reply 7):
A patriot couldn't shoot down anything, no matter how crappy or North Korean it is.

I believe one did manage to down an RAF Tornado.

Quoting Itsjustme (Reply 42):
I'm just going from memory but didn't the patriot play a significant role in our defense against scud missiles the first time we paid a visit to Iraq in '91?

The only significant role it played was in keeping Israel out of the war. I think post war analysis revealed that the Patriot missile system failed to shoot down anything it was fired at. It was all smoke and mirrors to calm the Israelis down.
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itsjustme
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 5:40 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 44):
The only significant role it played was in keeping Israel out of the war. I think post war analysis revealed that the Patriot missile system failed to shoot down anything it was fired at. It was all smoke and mirrors to calm the Israelis down.

You are correct. Here is an excerpt from one of a few articles I've found:

The tally of Scuds claimed was, in fact, fictitious. An initial kill rate of 40-50 per cent soon became a mere 5-10 per cent. Worse still, Patriot suffered from a serious software problem which quickly manifested itself with disastrous results:

On February 25, 1991, a Patriot missile defense system operating at Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, during Operation Desert Storm failed to track and intercept an incoming Scud. This Scud subsequently hit an Army barracks, killing 28 Americans.
 
centrair
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 7:25 pm

I'd reccomend people to watch this video. I watched it last night after reading all sorts of articles. Discovery Channel: North Korea Nuclear Documentary Very good. (45 minutes long)

My response is long...read carefully.

It goes into some things maybe we all don't really understand about NK. Back in the Clinton years, Clinton started mobilizing military to react to NK. But Carter had gone to North Korea and met with Kim Jong Il. Carter asked Kim to not launch another missle and not to mobilize but go to the negotiating table. As it is, North Korea has the 5th largest army and enough missles pointed at Seoul to flatten it in a few minutes. As they say, "Leave Seoul in flames before they even had a chance to move." But It is also said that the number one thing Kim fears is the U.S. They say a lot to their people about defeating the Americans, but they know they do not have the technological ability to take down a massive invasion, especially if South Korean and Japan were to step in.

Anyway Kim Jong Il agreed to not mobilize and Clinton call of plans to mobilize as well. Within a few months Sectretary of state Albright was dispatched to North Korea to help start a process that lead to the six nation talks (China, South Korea, North Korea, Japan, Russia and the US). NK was hoping it could lead to normalized relations with the US and Japan. After all Kim Jong Il is more interested in a unified Korea than defeating Japan or the US or even having China as a friend (They are not that friendly...China is too capitalist and North Korea isn't communist enough.) Bush made his statement putting North Korea as an axis of Evil, helping to set a nail in the coffin of diplomacy. But these talks really broke down when it came out that North Korea had produced a nuclear weapon. The six nation talks have started and restarted but North Korea is always asking for more without giving.

We ask, why did we go for Iraq when North Korea is truly and imminent threat? Here is your answer. Iraqis didn't like Saddam, they could receive information from the outside world, they wanted Saddam out and were ready to fight. The US knew that when they rolled in, the Iraqis would help with the liberation of their nation. North Koreans have no access to outside information, they only get what is fed to them by the government, they cannot travel, they have limited allies and even those are not tight. Kim Il Song's ideas of Juche, or self reliance make it so that North Korea doesn't trust anyone even China or Russia. Children are taught this from birth. They believe their leader is something of a god. If the US were to invade or attack North Korea, tt would be a far bloodier war than anything we see now. It would also cause global economic problems. North Korea invades the South, Japan mobilizes, China goes on defense. Japan's economy would be in worse condition and they would be without the man power to fight. The South would fight but could be over powered by the will and determination to fight by the Northern army. Russia has no money and has chilled relations with North Korea (Stalin liked Kim Il Song but was not interested in Korea). Russia will most likely try diplomacy, they can't afford to loose U.S., Japanese and South Korean economic support. China would most likely close its border to prevent a flood of refugees which would create an economic strain on Heilongjong province and the nation as a whole. Even though there are 30,000 troops in South Korea and the US can kick some ass, we would have to pull out of Iraq and Afghanistan or reinstate the draft to meet the demand. If we pull out of those two countries, we leave a vaccuum for further instability which could lead to economic collapse in the Middle East (bye bye EK and Dubai). All of these events would cause a ripple across the globe bring the worlds economies crashing down and the start of WWIII.

Where does China fit into all of this? China wants North Korea to relax. Why? It is not good for business. China is a growing economy and doesn't want to be seen in bed with North Korea. Their largest trading partner is the U.S. They will choose neutrality and diplomacy before siding with North Korea or the U.S. Mao Zedong called Kim Il Song a bad communist because he built palaces and lived an extravigant life.

Where does Canada fit into all of this? Americans can pick on Canada, but we must remember that Canada is an indirect diplomatic channel to North Korea. They are not in the six nation talks, but have heavy interest in its success. We used Canada to help establish relations with China in the 1970s and use Canada now with North Korea. Of course Bush can just pick up the phone and call Kim Jong Il, but he can also ask the Canadian mission in Pyongyang. Americans can't go to North Korea but Canadians can. In the media we can bash Canada and we have plenty of Jokes, but the Candians are damn good diplomats.

As for the missle itself. The Taepodong II is crude. It may have a range of 5000nm but is not strong enough to actually carry a nuclear warhead. North Korea has not yet developed the technology for delivery of a nuclear warhead. Even US intelligence knows this. But what they don't know is the status of the rocket. They do know that it has a poor trajectory system and not good at targeting. They could aim it at the US but more likely it will fall apart like the last one. They will report to their people that it was a "great success in scaring the American Dogs under the guidance of our dear leader Kim Jong Il."

I think we will see some very impressive 11th hour diplomacy coming from China, South Korea, Japan and the US. Bush has already stated that if Kim Jong Il launches this missle and it comes into US airspace, it will be a violation and they will take take action. Rice will take it to the UN which could lead to UN cutting North Korea's seat (not a good thing). The US will cut all Food aid, which doesn't get to the people anyway resulting, in massive starvation of not only the commoners but the elite. (US is the largest donar of food aid to North Korea) If any part lands in Japan (the last one flew over Japan and landed in the Pacific...it failed), Koizumi has stated it will be treated as an attack on Japanese sovereignty. Japan will retaliate. Christopher Hill, Assistant Secretary, Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, is handling diplomacy with North Korea now for the US. He is the former Ambassador to Korea, and is a calm headed career diplomat trusted by both parties.

Worst case senario. It is not about nuclear fall out, as the chances are still very skim. Its not about if the US defense sovereignty, that is our right. What if North Korea were to lose its UN seat and throw out all counselors and Ambassadors. We would have no diplomatic access to prevent further launches or leverage to bring peace to the Korean Peninsula and East Asia. With North Korea going more isloated, you could see increase opium and meth trade, black market weapon sales and reliance on terrorist groups and unstable governmental regimes.

So Should we shoot the missle down? If it enters US territory...YES...it is our right. But before we do that, we should have level heads and do what is best for civilization. We will not only save our lives but the lives of North Koreans, who are suffering enough already. We can also save the lives of billions if things were to escalate. Kim Jong Il ain't no dumby. He is strange and unpredicatable, but he knows that if he makes a wrong step, he is done for. If Bush pulls it off right, it will help ease tensions and he will be remembered for it. It would be the best move in his career.

Justin Dart
East Asian Studies Major (Economics and History)
International Relations Consultant
Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
slider
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Thu Jun 22, 2006 11:26 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 14):
We have the right to shoot down any missile aimed and fired at the U.S. anywhere along its path whether lethal or not.

Period.

Yup- take it out. Peace through strength.

Quoting Dougloid (Reply 16):
Rumor has it the Iranians and the Pakistanis are interested in acquiring more Dong technology.

 rotfl 

Quoting Centrair (Reply 46):
The US will cut all Food aid, which doesn't get to the people anyway resulting, in massive starvation of not only the commoners but the elite. (US is the largest donar of food aid to North Korea) If any part lands in Japan (the last one flew over Japan and landed in the Pacific...it failed), Koizumi has stated it will be treated as an attack on Japanese sovereignty. Japan will retaliate.

Great read, and thank you for posting all of that. Very insightful. Given the state of NK's economy as it is, wouldn't cutting food aid be a prudent move to make anyhow? Push the nation to it's breaking point where the game has to change. Sounds drastic, but if the news I hear is remotely true, the regime is close to collapse. That's why they're rattling the sabre now--it's a front.

The Japan angle is more curious. Does the US have a treaty that obligates a response on their behalf?
 
centrair
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Fri Jun 23, 2006 12:11 am

Quoting Slider (Reply 47):
Sounds drastic, but if the news I hear is remotely true, the regime is close to collapse.

You hear this a lot. I would say that the regime is not close to collapse. Kim Jong Il is so confident in maintaining his brainwash over the people that he has gone ahead with choosing his successor. Most likely it will be his third son,Kim Jong-chul, who attended the Berne International School, and whose mother was a former North Korean Actress (Kim Jong Il's second wife). Originally it was to be his oldest son, Kim Jong Nam, but he is a real screw ball. He showed up on an SQ flight in NRT with a fake passport and tried to go to Disneyland. He was deported. Recently he was seen again this time in Germany for the World Cup.

North Koreans don't question the leader, and if it were to collapse there would be nothing to fill it. There would be no one to over throw it. The military has to much power and loyalty to the dear leader. There is such a cult of personality that it would be almost imposible for it to fail. When you have the 5th largest military all with loyalty to Kim Jong Il, willing to lay his or her life on the line for him, you will. You have been trained since you were in preschool to do so. You do not question it. It is the perfect totalitarian regime. It has a tighter grip on its people than Stalin ever did and that is becasue Stalin was a successor not to his father but to another ideologue. North Korea is all about family following the confucian idea of Juche. Kim Il Song...Kim Jong Il...Kim Jong-chul...?

If there will be any change in North Korea it is the next son who will make it. Kim Jong Chul is far more aware of issues. In a program I saw a few months back they stated that Kim Jong Chul was a very smart, observant and caring student who sometimes seemed to wonder about his role and his countries path. Some north Korean observers say that he could be a very different leader from his father and grandfather...too bad we will have to wait 15 to 20 years till he is the ruler. (He was born in 1981)

Quoting Slider (Reply 47):
Does the US have a treaty that obligates a response on their behalf?

Not sure. Recent moves by the Koizumi cabinet and changes in Japanese public opinion on the changing the the role of the Japanese self-defense force could make it that Japan can act on its own. The SDF has submarines, cruisers, tanks, attack fighters, and pretty much everything you need to defend. The role of the SDF is one of self defense. We can use the National Guard in the US in both domestic emergencies and to reenforce the Armed Forces. The SDF is like the National Guard. It can be called to defend the nation, but only if Japan is attacked. Japan needs to be bombed or forces have to land on its shores or a large lizard needs to trample Tokyo before they can do anything.

I believe the US provides extra defense in exchange for bases. However more and more Japanese would like to see Japan take care of itself and the US reduce its presence. This is mainly due to problems with personel not behaving themselves and causing problems for communities.

Someone with more info on US-Japan military relations could answer this better.
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AerospaceFan
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RE: Should The US Shoot Down NK Missile?

Fri Jun 23, 2006 12:16 am

I am of the belief that unless the missile seems headed toward populated areas, we should not use our BMD system.

I happened to be a few miles south of Vandenberg AFB yesterday, where a lot of military space launches have taken place. And I think that there is enough drama going in the world today without an operational launch of our missile defense system, unless needed.

Besides, the word is that there will be a test launch of the system soon, anyway.

[Edited 2006-06-22 17:25:04]
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