KDTWflyer
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What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

Tue Aug 15, 2006 11:38 am

What do you think will happen to middle eastern nations after oil is depleted significantly, say by 2075?
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rjpieces
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RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

Tue Aug 15, 2006 11:56 am

They will return to the primitive conditions that existed in the 1920s????
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MDorBust
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RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

Tue Aug 15, 2006 11:59 am

They'll blame their new found poverty on the west and use it as an excuse for terrorism.
"I KICKED BURNING TERRORIST SO HARD IN BALLS THAT I TORE A TENDON" - Alex McIlveen
 
photopilot
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RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

Tue Aug 15, 2006 12:01 pm

By the time oil finally runs out in the Mid East, it will be hundreds of dollars per barrel and the Arabs will have so much money that they will have BOUGHT the USA. Every major company, the stock markets, etc, will be controlled by foreign countries.

They Arabs won't be hurting, but the USA will be bankrupt from years of trying to pay for oil that they must BUY from countries who have it.

Think it can't happen? Just look at the balance of payments USA/Saudia Arabia and see who owns what. Add China into the mix and look out USA.
 
Bobster2
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RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

Tue Aug 15, 2006 12:05 pm

Quoting Photopilot (Reply 3):
the Arabs will have so much money that they will have BOUGHT the USA.



Quoting Photopilot (Reply 3):
the USA will be bankrupt from years of trying to pay for oil

That's like investing in Enron. What's the point of the Arabs buying something with no value?
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ETStar
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RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

Tue Aug 15, 2006 2:35 pm

Quoting MDorBust (Reply 2):
They'll blame their new found poverty on the west and use it as an excuse for terrorism.

There is much more to the middle east than terrorism. The terrorists are a small fraction of the population, kinda like you who thinks that anything and everything middle eastern is terrorst-related.
 
captaink
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RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

Tue Aug 15, 2006 2:42 pm

Quoting MDorBust (Reply 2):
They'll blame their new found poverty on the west and use it as an excuse for terrorism.

 no 

I like like the point that was made that the cost of oil would have gone up so high, that they would have made alot of money on it. But what will happen to the rest of us without the middle east's oil? We better start putting more focus on alternative energy sources.
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baroque
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RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

Tue Aug 15, 2006 3:25 pm

Quoting Photopilot (Reply 3):
By the time oil finally runs out in the Mid East, it will be hundreds of dollars per barrel and the Arabs will have so much money that they will have BOUGHT the USA. Every major company, the stock markets, etc, will be controlled by foreign countries.

As it will go this is point one. The ME will have been paid very large sums of money and assuming there is not a major change in systems or the US defaults on debt, they will be in a good financial position.

Quoting Captaink (Reply 6):
I like like the point that was made that the cost of oil would have gone up so high, that they would have made alot of money on it. But what will happen to the rest of us without the middle east's oil? We better start putting more focus on alternative energy sources.

And this is point two, if you are worried about the ME owning most assets in the west, now think how the west is going to function without cheap oil. There will be some oil, but it will be much more expensive, in say year 2000 terms when oil was about USD25, alternative are likely to be about USD75. Now that "cheap oil" IS USD75, multiply that by some factor close to 3.

The main downside for the ME is that after oil and gas its natural resources seem to be small, for example, they have as remarkably little coal as they have remarkably much oil. But they do have a lot of sun. The Saudis have been busy with solar power for a while. Probably look to the ME to advance the integration of solar power in a major way.

It will be interesting times. Just remember the REAL returns on the second half of the oil reserves will be a lot more than that on the first half.
 
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RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

Tue Aug 15, 2006 3:50 pm

Quoting Kdtwflyer (Thread starter):
What do you think will happen to middle eastern nations after oil is depleted significantly, say by 2075?

You make the mistake of assuming that the change in the economies of the Middle East nations is based on oil running out - but never address the question of "What if one day... we no longer needed their oil?"

Oil is actually quite plentiful. It's just the easy-to-get-at stuff that is becoming scarce. Because prices are where they are, two things will happen in the not-too-distant future:

  • Sources of oil that have always had prohibitively high cost to develop now become profitable at these higher prices, and will be brought to market

  • High prices are forcing an unprecedented amount of investment and research into alternative fuels, which will one day replace oil


  • Both of which will inevitably lead to the industrialized world thumbing their nose at OPEC at some point.

    So tell me - what happens THEN, when the only commodity of value that the Middle East has....suddenly has little value or demand in the market?
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    Pulkovokiwi
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Tue Aug 15, 2006 4:26 pm

    They will still be as rich as hell living off their joint ventures with the Bush/Cheney cartel  Smile
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    fumanchewd
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Tue Aug 15, 2006 4:51 pm

    The only thing that has kept successful ME countries going is oil and tourism which are funded by the oil. Even the tourism is reduced to UAE and other such countires. Until Saudi, Qutar, Syria, Lebanon, etc. realize that the free market (instead of the Islamic market) is the only way to run a country, then they will all be backwater.
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    gunsontheroof
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Tue Aug 15, 2006 5:20 pm

    Quoting MDorBust (Reply 2):
    They'll blame their new found poverty on the west and use it as an excuse for terrorism.

    As though Western powers have had nothing to do with setting back progress in the Middle East...
     
    fumanchewd
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Tue Aug 15, 2006 5:25 pm

    Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 22):

    As though Western powers have had nothing to do with setting back progress in the Middle East...

    Orientalism has long been complained about by Moslems for the reduction of industrialization in the ME, but this should be mainly attributed towards Islam and the anti-capitilast nature of occidentalism.
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    Pulkovokiwi
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Tue Aug 15, 2006 5:32 pm

    Quoting Fumanchewd (Reply 25):

    Get it right it does NOT in 2006 have any reserves of oil. None. None. None.
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    fumanchewd
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Tue Aug 15, 2006 5:36 pm

    Quoting Pulkovokiwi (Reply 26):
    Get it right it does NOT in 2006 have any reserves of oil. None. None. None.



    Quoting Pulkovokiwi (Reply 19):
    Absolute nonsense! Look at Dubai it doesnt have any oil and has the fastest growing airline in the world.Qatar is embracing tourism as well. Your anti Arab lack of logic is tedious.

    You failed to mention that their entire economy is built upon oil sales from the past. It is very clever of you to omit pertinent information! Smile
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    gunsontheroof
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Tue Aug 15, 2006 5:38 pm

    Quoting Fumanchewd (Reply 23):

    Orientalism has long been complained about by Moslems for the reduction of industrialization in the ME, but this should be mainly attributed towards Islam and the anti-capitilast nature of occidentalism.

    Keep in mind that historically, Western powers have made great strides for control over Middle Eastern oil. The U.S. backed overthrow of the democratically elected Mossadegh administration (who dared to assert that Iran's oil belonged to Iran) during the 1950s is a good example. I don't think it's completely fair to suggest that Moslem societies have an inert hesitation towards Western capitalism, nor do I think it's far to suggest that such a hesitation is fundamentally wrong, although I do think that many Middle Eastern nations could stand to benefit from more egalitarian societal structures than they seem to be pursuing today.

    Reading that aloud sounded a bit scatterbrained, but I hope the point was made.
     
    fumanchewd
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Tue Aug 15, 2006 5:50 pm

    Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 28):
    I don't think it's completely fair to suggest that Moslem societies have an inert hesitation towards Western capitalism, nor do I think it's far to suggest that such a hesitation is fundamentally wrong, although I do think that many Middle Eastern nations could stand to benefit from more egalitarian societal structures than they seem to be pursuing today.

    I agree with this statement. However, I would add my opinion that as much as Westen investors are hesitant to invest in the ME (with the exception of Dubai, UAE, and Saudi) many ME country's and their populace have the same apprehension towards having foreign investors. I agree that a "more egalitarian" structure would help to incubate a productive economy, but a "egalitarian societal structure" is impossible in the area at the present moment. We can argue whose fault that is all night, but it is the truth that for the next decade trading and the economies in the area will be perversly corrupt.
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    fumanchewd
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Tue Aug 15, 2006 5:59 pm

    Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 28):
    I don't think it's completely fair to suggest that Moslem societies have an inert hesitation towards Western capitalism, nor do I think it's far to suggest that such a hesitation is fundamentally wrong, although I do think that many Middle Eastern nations could stand to benefit from more egalitarian societal structures than they seem to be pursuing today.

    At times, it was inherent in Moslem culture to ignore capitalistic ventures on a grand scale. I.E., while European explorers were looking for gold and treasure, Moslem explorers were looking to expand the knowledge of Allah. True European explorers would claim that they were in fact missionaries, but it was proven time and time again that material interests proved stronger than theoligical.

    Another point is that fact that upon the beginning of the Mongolian Empire, the trade routes to Asia from Europe were closed. This was later continued by the Ottoman Empire to a great extent in both directions of trading for profit because of the involvement of Kafir's.
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    gunsontheroof
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Tue Aug 15, 2006 6:09 pm

    Quoting Fumanchewd (Reply 30):
    At times, it was inherent in Moslem culture to ignore capitalistic ventures on a grand scale. I.E., while European explorers were looking for gold and treasure, Moslem explorers were looking to expand the knowledge of Allah. True European explorers would claim that they were in fact missionaries, but it was proven time and time again that material interests proved stronger than theoligical.

    Another point is that fact that upon the beginning of the Mongolian Empire, the trade routes to Asia from Europe were closed. This was later continued by the Ottoman Empire to a great extent in both directions of trading for profit because of the involvement of Kafir's.

    These are particularly interesting historical points that I think warrant further scrutiny, although I will point out that much of this history transpires before the "official" rise of capitalism.  Wink

    We should keep in mind that at one point in history , the Islamic world was quite advanced in comparison with the Western world. Can any of the factors that caused this to change also be attributed to an alleged apprehension to Westernized free market economies in the Islamic world?

    I'm too tired to reflect on this, so I'm off to bed. I'll see what the rest of you come up with tomorrow...
     
    AerospaceFan
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Tue Aug 15, 2006 6:15 pm

    Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 9):
    Oil is actually quite plentiful. It's just the easy-to-get-at stuff that is becoming scarce. Because prices are where they are, two things will happen in the not-too-distant future:

    I would tend to agree. There are areas in western Canada, for example, that contain vast reserves of oil that have been uneconomical to exploit, but that may become so in the future. Further, the U.S. apparently has similar "reserves" that have not been used because importing and refining imported oil has been, thus far, cheaper.

    The old joke about the depletion of global oil reserves is that urgent predictions that oil supplies will be completely exhausted in a mere matter of years have been made -- for decade after decade after decade.

    Regarding comments on Dubai, while I am in general agreement with Fumanchewd that modern capitalism, in all its aspects, has not been a hallmark of most areas of the Middle East (with the notable exception of Israel and a few other countries), I do think that Dubai stands as a relative bright star in that region regardless of the source of its wealth. I believe that its openness to innovation, on some level, tends to bode well for the cultures of that region given the presumption of other favorable circumstances for which one can hope.

    The Middle East as a whole, as Fumanchewd may agree, nevertheless suffers from vast and ingrained poverty that the undoubted existence of higher strata of society in that area nevertheless cannot conceal. Tragically, there is also a sense of grievance that often misdirects the energies of its people, whose high intelligence and innate abilities are ill-served accordingly. The threat of grass-roots revolution of a religio-economic kind is quite real and there are great challenges it must conquer before it can prosper in the manner typified in the West.

    [Edited 2006-08-15 11:25:10]
    What's fair is fair.
     
    fumanchewd
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Tue Aug 15, 2006 6:29 pm

    Quoting AerospaceFan (Reply 33):
    The Middle East as a whole, as Fumanchewd may agree, nevertheless suffers from vast and ingrained poverty that the undoubted existence higher strata of society in that area nevertheless cannot conceal. Tragically, there is also a sense of grievance that often misdirects the energies of its people, whose high intelligence and innate abilities are ill-served accordingly.

    Of course this is true. In any society poverty breathes upon ignorance and the cycle is, unfortunately, perpetual. The question always is, what will break it?
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    Alessandro
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Tue Aug 15, 2006 6:30 pm

    Depends on so many things, take global warming, imagine if the average temperature in large parts of ME during 2075 period of april-september average +55-60C in the shade compared with +30-50C today,
    it makes it very difficult to be outdoor and many inhabitants have to go
    to cooler places like South Africa or elsewhere. Also depends on water supply,
    will Tigris and Eufrat dry out due to climate change?
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    fumanchewd
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Tue Aug 15, 2006 6:34 pm

    Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 32):
    These are particularly interesting historical points that I think warrant further scrutiny, although I will point out that much of this history transpires before the "official" rise of capitalism.

    Check out the Italians during the time, and you might be suprised.
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    AerospaceFan
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Tue Aug 15, 2006 6:35 pm

    Quoting Fumanchewd (Reply 35):
    Of course this is true. In any society poverty breathes upon ignorance and the cycle is, unfortunately, perpetual. The question always is, what will break it?

    I think that the person who knows the solution would surely deserve a Nobel Prize. Alas, I am not that person.

    [Edited 2006-08-15 11:36:53]
    What's fair is fair.
     
    fumanchewd
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Tue Aug 15, 2006 6:38 pm

    Quoting AerospaceFan (Reply 38):

    I think that the person who knows the solution would surely deserve a Nobel Prize. Alas, I am not that person.

    I think that only Carrot Top has the insight to settle this terrible polemic. Wink
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    AerospaceFan
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Tue Aug 15, 2006 6:44 pm

    Quoting Fumanchewd (Reply 39):
    I think that only Carrot Top has the insight to settle this terrible polemic.  

    No doubt with the able assistance of that greatest of philosophers, Ricky Bobby of Talledega fame.

     

    [Edited 2006-08-15 11:45:40]
    What's fair is fair.
     
    vc10
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Tue Aug 15, 2006 7:35 pm

    What I do not understand, is that this huge developement in the Gulf States seems to depend on the production of fresh water from sea water by using huge amounts of cheap/free gas to fuel the process. When the oil and gas runs out how do you get the fresh water required to service these huge developements

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    ltbewr
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Tue Aug 15, 2006 8:39 pm

    Another compounding issue in the Middle East is the huge growth of population. Faith beliefs not only by Muslims, but also by Orthodox Jews that make it immoral to use birth control as well as modern medicine being available to all means huge rises in population. There isn't enough jobs or infrastructure such as schools or housing to take care of those huge increases in population already and the lack of oil in the future takes away the ability to subsidise those needs. That means people will have to move in massive numbers to have enough water or be able to farm. That may mean war and seeking of subsidies from the western world.
     
    Emirates773ER
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:57 pm

    Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 34):
    Faith beliefs not only by Muslims, but also by Orthodox Jews that make it immoral to use birth control as well as modern medicine being available to all means huge rises in population.

    You have things mixed up here, birth control is not considered immoral in Islam infact it is used widely in all countries.

    By the way QR332, you have put up some excellent posts.  thumbsup 
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    qr332
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Tue Aug 15, 2006 10:13 pm

    Quoting Vc10 (Reply 33):
    What I do not understand, is that this huge developement in the Gulf States seems to depend on the production of fresh water from sea water by using huge amounts of cheap/free gas to fuel the process. When the oil and gas runs out how do you get the fresh water required to service these huge developements

    Excellent point, one which I have no idea about... I really don't know how they would handle the issue, my guess is that if they do develop fully, they will be able to support the costs of converting salt water into fresh water.

    Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 34):
    Another compounding issue in the Middle East is the huge growth of population. Faith beliefs not only by Muslims, but also by Orthodox Jews that make it immoral to use birth control as well as modern medicine being available to all means huge rises in population. There isn't enough jobs or infrastructure such as schools or housing to take care of those huge increases in population already and the lack of oil in the future takes away the ability to subsidise those needs. That means people will have to move in massive numbers to have enough water or be able to farm. That may mean war and seeking of subsidies from the western world

    Birth control is widely available in all Muslim countries and is not immoral at all - its just that for some reason, poor people have many children, something I can never understand, which leads to huge rises in population, like you said.

    Quoting Emirates773ER (Reply 35):
    By the way QR332, you have put up some excellent posts.

    Thanks, Emirates!
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    MDorBust
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Tue Aug 15, 2006 10:56 pm

    Quoting ETStar (Reply 5):
    There is much more to the middle east than terrorism. The terrorists are a small fraction of the population, kinda like you who thinks that anything and everything middle eastern is terrorst-related.

    Yippie, one sentence and it's off to the personal insults.

    And now for a reality check.

    There will always be terrorists in the middle east. They will always use whatever is happening at the time as their excuse. I have absolutely no doubt that they will use the end of oil exports, be it through exhaustion or alternative developments, as their excuse of the day.

    My answer was off the cuff sarcasm as the premise of the original question is invalid. Most middle eastern nations are already developing Independence from their oil industries and will survive quite fine when the day comes it is no longer their staple.
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    baroque
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:35 pm

    The thread posed an interesting question, not least in that it demanded an answer as to what happens to the rest of the world. I cannot quite see why some of the posts were relatively bad tempered, but now they have gone it has, to coin a phrase, rather lost its thread.

    I had commented as an example of the diversity of the ME and unexpected outcomes that Australia now sells camels to the ME. Apparently they are happy to get them, and we want to get rid of the damned things from munching up our vegetation. A great example of unintended outcomes. Probably the run down in oil reserves will abound in even more unexpected as well as unintended outcomes.

    Most of the controlling parameters on current economies will have to change. You just have to look at the wailing in a country like Aus when petrol goes from about 90c a litre to about 1.45 a litre, to know that things will get interesting when it hits about 3.00 and is in short supply just for added "fun".

    There was an argument about oil reserves and the situation is not simple. Most reserves figures are for UAE and UAE has the largest R/P ratio for the ME. However, Dubai has a very low
    R/P about 20 years or maybe quite a bit less.

    http://www.datadubai.com/about-dubai/oil/dubai-oil/

    "Dubai's oil reserves in 1991 were estimated at 4 billion barrels, which will run out by 2016 if 1990 levels of production continue. The principal fields are Fath, Rashid, and Falah offshore, and Margham onshore." So those data are a bit dated, but the best I could find.

    Most of the UAE reserves are in Abu Dhabi

    http://www.uaeinteract.com/uaeint_misc/pdf/perspectives/11.pdf

    Dubai has used its oil revenue fairly wisely and have moved away from dependence upon that source of revenue and oil is now estimated at less than 10% of GDP. Which is as well because it will be a bit of a test case as to what the Gulf countries will do when the oil ends.

    In response to the comments on population, one of the tragedies of the past 20 years is how little population
    control has figured in public debate and policy. Education and rising standards of living are usually the answer to the problem, but perhaps less so in the ME than they are in, for example SE Asia.

    Population growth will change, but probably too late to avoid conflict resulting from the present indulgent rates of growth. And countries that have falling birth rates are panned for having coming economic problems. They are the ones that will have fewer problems if they get their acts together.
     
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    HAWK21M
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Thu Aug 17, 2006 12:11 am

    PEACE.


    regds
    MEL
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    ME AVN FAN
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:36 am

    Middle East after Oil


    RJpieces From United States, joined Nov 2003, 5834 posts, RR: 39Reply 1, posted Tue Aug 15 2006 04:56:59 UTC+2 and read 445 times:

    They will return to the primitive conditions that existed in the 1920s????
    ->>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    Beside the point that many Arab countries like Morocco, Tunisia, Lebanon and Jordan have no oil or almost none, and countries like Egypt and Syria not much, it is interesting to see that Dubai with only minimum oil for domestic consumption is practically as well off as oil-rich Abu Dhabi. And countries like the UAE, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain and Algeria are preparing for the post-petrol time. The vast tourism projects in the Arabian Gulf are just one of the various features. Saudi Arabia presumably may be the country for which your forecast may be correct in a way, but they still have many decades to go, so that it anyway is far too early to make decent forecasts.
    -<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
    ***********************************************************************************************************************
     
    airxliban
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Sun Aug 20, 2006 3:34 am

    We're talking primarily of Gulf states here...but my opinion of the situation is that at the time when oil wealth starts to decline permanently, countries that have invested in their people as opposed to funneling the cash to their pockets will be in a position to secure future prosperity.

    Those that don't will face a decline with potentially dangerous consequences.
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    ME AVN FAN
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    RE: What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?

    Sun Aug 20, 2006 6:58 pm

    Quoting AirxLiban (Reply 34):
    countries that have invested in their people

    Most of the countries in question DID upgrade education, infrastructure and a variety of industries and services, ranging from mechanical manufacturing to free trade zones, seaports and airports, roads, and tourism. I also expect countries like the KSA in future to use sun-energy for its economy. But all such things are long-term matters and not immediate ones.

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