rammstein
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Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Wed Sep 13, 2006 3:57 am

Not very interesting from the statistical point of view (only 1,004 people questioned), but shows at least the typical flip-flop behavior of the constituency.

Quote: CNN


WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The percentage of Americans who blame the Bush administration for the September 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington has risen from almost a third to almost half over the past four years, a CNN poll released Monday found.

Asked whether they blame the Bush administration for the attacks, 45 percent said either a "great deal" or a "moderate amount," up from 32 percent in a June 2002 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll.

But the Clinton administration did not get off lightly either. The latest poll, conducted by Opinion Research Corporation for CNN, found that 41 percent of respondents blamed his administration a "great deal" or a "moderate amount" for the attacks.


More interesting is the pessimistic point of view of people:


Still, most Americans appear to be fatalistic, with more than half -- 57 percent -- saying they think that terrorists will "always find a way to launch attacks no matter what the U.S. government does."


So the famous "now the world is more secure" phrase is not perceived as true.

Your thoughts?

[Edited 2006-09-12 21:01:01]
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EA CO AS
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Wed Sep 13, 2006 4:00 am

Quoting Rammstein (Thread starter):
So the famous "now the world is more secure" phrase is not perceived as true.

You thoughts?

My thoughts are that you can interpret statistics any way you want to advance whatever your particular point of view may be.

Regardless, I feel it IS true that a determined terrorist will probably find a way to get something done and there's no way to defend against them unless you start throwing every Muslim out of North America - which could not and should never happen.
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Newark777
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Wed Sep 13, 2006 4:01 am

Quoting Rammstein (Thread starter):
but shows at least the typical flip-flop behavior of the constituency.

Also shows that the majority of the people in this country are mindless idiots, on both sides of the aisle (Red Neck Comedy tour, etc..).

Harry
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A332
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Wed Sep 13, 2006 4:02 am

Hindsight is 20/20... since when does pointing fingers ever accomplish anything anyways?
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usnseallt82
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Wed Sep 13, 2006 4:04 am

Quoting Rammstein (Thread starter):
(only 1,004 people questioned)

I've paid attention to most CNN polls in the last several years, and you'll notice that most have 1,001-1,004 people surveyed. Probably the same damn ones over and over.

Like someone has already said, you can bend stats any way you want when you have an agenda.  irked 
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rammstein
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Wed Sep 13, 2006 4:05 am

Quoting Rammstein (Thread starter):
shows at least the typical flip-flop behavior of the constituency.

Of course I mean constituency in general, of any country, not only the American one.
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ANCFlyer
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Wed Sep 13, 2006 4:19 am

It's nonsense . . . 9/11 was in the works long before Bush became PotUS . . . it's continues to prove the the limited intellect of a lot of Americans, the limited ability to see beyond the present (or the immediate past).



Polls mean little of nothing anyway. The questions are asked to elicit a specific response.
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Falcon84
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Wed Sep 13, 2006 4:22 am

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 1):
My thoughts are that you can interpret statistics any way you want to advance whatever your particular point of view may be.

Agreed 100%.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 1):
Regardless, I feel it IS true that a determined terrorist will probably find a way to get something done and there's no way to defend against them unless you start throwing every Muslim out of North America - which could not and should never happen.

Not long before his death, President John F. Kennedy said that if someone was really determined to murder him, he'd find a way to do it. Same with terrorism. All of our technology, intelligence, modern weapons and determination to stop such acts won't completely deter them, no matter what we do.

As for the blame, I've said all along, this isn't the fault of President Bill Clinton nor President George W. Bush, but, collectively, a national failure. We've known since the Munich Olympics what these creeps are willing to do, so the failure goes back a generation.
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EWRCabincrew
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Wed Sep 13, 2006 4:29 am

Quoting Falcon84 (Reply 7):
As for the blame, I've said all along, this isn't the fault of President Bill Clinton nor President George W. Bush, but, collectively, a national failure. We've known since the Munich Olympics what these creeps are willing to do, so the failure goes back a generation.

Very well said. Like them (Clinton or Bush) or not, they are not to blame. We always lay blame on those in charge at the time. It's a knee jerk reaction.

Mind you, it's when nothing is done to we reinforce the blame.
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rammstein
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Wed Sep 13, 2006 4:32 am

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 1):
My thoughts are that you can interpret statistics any way you want to advance whatever your particular point of view may be.

right.

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 6):
It's nonsense . . . 9/11 was in the works long before Bush became PotUS . . .

I had the same WTF reaction as well (and I admin I'm not a Bush fan)

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 6):
it's continues to prove the the limited intellect of a lot of Americans, the limited ability to see beyond the present (or the immediate past).

Well, I think it's not an American-only problem, in all democracies the majority of people is misinformed and tend to point the finger very easily.
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nkops
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Wed Sep 13, 2006 4:36 am

I don't blame Bush or Clinton for 9/11... I blame the terrorists!!!

I do think however, we are not as safe as the pres. says we are, and I do think at some point there will be another attack on our soil, although probably not with airplanes.
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CastleIsland
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Wed Sep 13, 2006 4:43 am

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 1):
My thoughts are that you can interpret statistics any way you want to advance whatever your particular point of view may be.

Actually, it's not so much the bending of the statistics as it is the bias that is (or is not) built into the study design. As Pep says:

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 6):
The questions are asked to elicit a specific response.

That's where the warping is taking place.

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 6):
It's nonsense

The blaming of Bush is largely nonsense, although it appears that some warning signs were not well acted upon both both the current and former administrations. However, that the American people have changed their tune is not necessarily nonsense. What it says to me is that people will change their mind in connection with their overall approval of Bush. When Bush's approval rating drops, more people now blame Bush for 9/11, even if no additional information is available to support that contention. It's actually a bit more disturbing than nonsense.
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b757300
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Wed Sep 13, 2006 5:01 am

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

Just another anti-Bush CNN poll they had to drag out on Sept. 11th.

If anyone still thinks these media polls have any meaning, just look at the run up to the 2004 election. If the media and their polls had been right, then John Kerry would have been President with ~370 electoral votes.
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EA CO AS
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Wed Sep 13, 2006 5:38 pm

Quoting CastleIsland (Reply 11):
Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 1):
My thoughts are that you can interpret statistics any way you want to advance whatever your particular point of view may be.

Actually, it's not so much the bending of the statistics as it is the bias that is (or is not) built into the study design

Equally true. People can (and do) craft poll questions in such a way that is guaranteed to skew the results in a predetermined direction.
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Superfly
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Wed Sep 13, 2006 5:44 pm

I knew the United States was in trouble the second the U.S. Supreme Court decided that Dubya & Co. would occupy the White House.  Sad
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FDXmech
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Wed Sep 13, 2006 7:47 pm

I read the polling data, "More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11" byline is typical media manipulation and sensationalism of facts they themselves have gleaned. Impartial analysis? I don't think so. The title is very misleading. The blame is virtually identical to both Bush and Clinton Administrations.
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ANCFlyer
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Wed Sep 13, 2006 10:42 pm

Quoting Superfly (Reply 14):
I knew the United States was in trouble the second the U.S. Supreme Court decided that Dubya & Co. would occupy the White House.

Ridiculous Superfly, and not - NOT - germaine to the thread topic . . .
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deltadc9
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Wed Sep 13, 2006 10:56 pm

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 6):
It's nonsense . . . 9/11 was in the works long before Bush became PotUS . . . it's continues to prove the the limited intellect of a lot of Americans, the limited ability to see beyond the present (or the immediate past).

Just like the first WTC bombing was in the works long before Clinton became Pres, and the Iran hostage plot was probably not Carters fault either.

The only thing the President is responsible for is the response, and Bush's response has definitely preoccupied the terrorists on their own turf if nothing else. Nothing wrong with that.

Why cant we just blame the people who did the deeds?

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 16):
Ridiculous Superfly, and not - NOT - germaine to the thread topic . . .

In fact, very worthy of deletion.
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cfalk
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Wed Sep 13, 2006 11:07 pm

Quoting Rammstein (Thread starter):
Asked whether they blame the Bush administration for the attacks, 45 percent said either a "great deal" or a "moderate amount," up from 32 percent in a June 2002 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll.

"A lie, if repeated often enough, will eventually be accepted as truth by the masses" - Lenin

Quoting Rammstein (Thread starter):
Still, most Americans appear to be fatalistic, with more than half -- 57 percent -- saying they think that terrorists will "always find a way to launch attacks no matter what the U.S. government does."

So the famous "now the world is more secure" phrase is not perceived as true.

There are two parts to this. I agree, terrorists will launch attacks no matter who's in charge. Remember that 9/11 happened 6 months after a new president came to power with a campaign promise that he would not go on foreign policy adventures - essentially an isolationist platform - which he was in fact living up to until 9/11 convinced him of the need to do otherwise.

However the charge that we are not safer is bogus. The proof is the foiled London plot last month, which would not have been caught with the security means in place pre-9/11. We have wire taps and financial tracking systems online. While we can still complain about the TSA, they are better trained and more attentive than the dismal security of 5 years ago. 100% of hold baggage is now checked. Cargo containers coming into ports are now nearly all checked and inventoried prior to shipment to the US, although more needs to be done, we are much safer than before.
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don81603
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Fri Sep 15, 2006 10:49 am

Quoting Cfalk (Reply 18):
Cargo containers coming into ports are now nearly all checked and inventoried prior to shipment to the US,

All cargo is documented, and all documentation must be submitted to CBP (Customs and Border Protection) 2 hours before arrival, but it is not checked prior to arrival and even at border crossings, few (less than 1%) are physically checked. A cursory inspection of paperwork and a trip through VACIS (Vehicle And Cargo Inspection System) which is nothing more than a powerful ex-ray machine and commercial vehicles are on their way. Private vehicles are subject to even less "invasive" inspections.

Commercial vehicle cabs are not subjected to VACIS (due to radiation used by the machines) and since 9-11, I've had my cab physically inspected twice and I cross the line 2 or 3 times a month hauling restricted commodities which are VERY susceptible to tampering, and could easily be used to cause deaths that would far surpass those of 9-11.

Is the world a safer place? Sure it is, but that's like saying your house is safer because your neighbour now has a bazooka instead of a Stinger
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gunsontheroof
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Fri Sep 15, 2006 11:02 am

Charging Bush with responsibility for 9/11 is pretty ridiculous, but I don't think it's unreasonable to attribute some degree of responsibility to U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East over the last half century. Enormous amounts of military aid to Israel and complatency with the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza certainly hasn't done much to give the U.S. a favorable reputation in Muslim nations, nor has their continued meddling in governmental affairs (see Iran) or murderous economic sanctions (Iraq). That doesn't mean that the U.S. or any individual within its government is to blame for what happened on 9/11, but they do deserve their share of the blame along with al-Queda, the Taliban, etc. To say that the terrorists struck because they hate our freedom, western values, TV shows, whatever is simply absurd; if it were a question of values or religion, you wouldn't see the attacks directed solely at the meddlesome United States or subsequently, its supporters in the "war on terror".
 
NeilYYZ
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Fri Sep 15, 2006 11:32 am

Stats are extremely easy to manipulate, not to mention that in a country of 300 million or so, 1004 is not exactly a representative analysis. While I understand that the sample size of a study does not have to be very large to be able to extrapolate about the larger population, 1004 seems small to me.

When I was conducting a survey at university for an advanced stats course myself and 6 other people each tried to get 200 responses each, now that's at a school of 15,000. I realize that 1,200 out of 15,000 or just under 10% is not exactly feasable for CNN, unless it's a census question, however, 1,004 seems very small all the same.

I would also question where CNN got their sample from, was it all people from New York and California? If it was you could say that you asked people from all across the country. Because it would seem to me that they have polls that consistently paint Bush in a bad light, as if they were focusing on heavily Democratic states whilst polling. Now on the flip side, you have FOX News, which can seem to go the other way, just so we're being fair.

I would suspect that if you were to have FOX News get their polling people to do the exact same survey using their techniques, it would turn out differently. In the end, I bet that the truth is somewhere in the middle.
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NWDC10
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Fri Sep 15, 2006 11:52 am

Seems like it was the "Perfect" crime. and yes, it was a crime. Everything worked out according to all who were involved. Robert NWDC10
 
cfalk
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Fri Sep 15, 2006 11:57 am

Quoting Don81603 (Reply 19):
but it is not checked prior to arrival and even at border crossings, few (less than 1%) are physically checked.

This is misleading. I've seen how they do it, and it's pretty damned good. VACIS is quite effective at sniffing out anything radioactive or explosive.

I don't want the US to have to open every single container. But every container should go through VACIS, which is not just an X-Ray machine. It combines the capabilities of a spectrograph, and can see not only materials that it is specifically designed to spot (radioactives and explosives), but also a variety of other components, let's say steel. When looking at the computerized inventory, let's say for a container of 500 TV sets, VICAS will estimate that around X% will be composed of X, and Y% will be made of Y, etc, based on past experience in the computer. If the masses involved do not match, for instance there is too little steel, or the whole container weighs more than what VACIS thinks 500 TV sets should weigh, then the container is flagged for a manual search. And this is only part of its capability. Basically, VACIS is a profiling tool for cargo.

BTW, remember the Dubai Ports fiasco last year? Dubai Ports was willing to implement every single one of these measures, plus all the measures recommended by the 9/11 Commission on 100% of all cargo, at its own cost. Talk about kicking a gift horse in the teeth...

As far as land traffic into the US, there is so much of it that the only way to effectively check it is by profiling, profiling, and more profiling.
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SlamClick
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Fri Sep 15, 2006 12:00 pm

Headline: "Psychic terrorists plan attacks - predicting G.W. Bush will be elected.
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mt99
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Fri Sep 15, 2006 12:26 pm

Quoting NeilYYZ (Reply 21):
Stats are extremely easy to manipulate, not to mention that in a country of 300 million or so, 1004 is not exactly a representative analysis. While I understand that the sample size of a study does not have to be very large to be able to extrapolate about the larger population, 1004 seems small to me.

When I was conducting a survey at university for an advanced stats course myself and 6 other people each tried to get 200 responses each, now that's at a school of 15,000. I realize that 1,200 out of 15,000 or just under 10% is not exactly feasable for CNN, unless it's a census question, however, 1,004 seems very small all the same

What was the error margin and confidence level of your survey? If you dont believe that 1,004 is a sufficient amount of people asked, i cast a very very high doubt how "advanced" your stats course was.

More info about sample size

http://www.robertniles.com/stats/sample.shtml
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padraighaz
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Fri Sep 15, 2006 1:31 pm

Quoting Rammstein (Thread starter):
...but shows at least the typical flip-flop behavior of the constituency.

I don't think this is the right explanation. I think many voters are just not terribly rational and are extremely deficient in critical thinking skills. This means they tend to rely heavily on impressions, gut feelings, and ingrained cultural soundbites - hence the emphasis on soundbites and media by politicians. For example, I believe before 9-11 a majority of americans would automatically have agreed with the following kinds of statements:

america is good

america fights for freedom

america fights fair

america tries to do good in the world

our president must be good if he believes in God

Therefore, after 9-11, when the president went on a patriotism and anti-terror feeding frenzy, he reaped huge support ratings.

This lasted even as he started a war in Afghanistan, and he got continued mileage out of the support when he called for the invasion of Iraq. There was no shortage of indicators the administration was bootstrapping the case for going to war, and most of the reasons have fallen by the wayside. The point is that at the time, people were still in the "my president, right or wrong" mindset.

I believe as time went on, the critical thinking skills didn't change, but the mood and momentum shifted. The reasons for going to war have changed repeatedly and this confuses people. The promise and suggestions of a fast and easy war - especially after the breezey first Iraq war suckered people into expecting this would also be trivial. As it turned into a quagmire, this prop to the pre-9/11 mindset also fell away. The flood of irrational killings that suggest being on the verge of a civil war are another factor that undermine this position. The end result is that the mood of the population has shifted away from the administration's position.

So, this is not a flip-flop in the sense that there is an instantaneous major shift in position, but a flow away from the rosy pre-9/11 to a disillusioned current one. Again, I think much of this is all done on a gut level, and this means the tide could reverse if the appropriate buttons were pushed. Recent attempts by Republicans to fan the flames of Immigration or Gay Marriage are good examples of politicians making deliberate attempts to hit the buttons that trigger gut reactions from people. Others are the need for Security and the No New Taxes mantra. There is nothing rational to justify any of these positions, but they do have a way of pandering to the the average american - after all, if we really are in a war for our very survival, does it make sense to raise divisive issues like these unnecessarily when we should be trying to unite the nation?
 
Joni
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:43 pm

Quoting Usnseallt82 (Reply 4):
I've paid attention to most CNN polls in the last several years, and you'll notice that most have 1,001-1,004 people surveyed. Probably the same damn ones over and over.

Like someone has already said, you can bend stats any way you want when you have an agenda.

I seriously doubt that CNN (or the polling company they used) would do something other than a valid study, albeit one with a smallish (thus cheapish) sample and thus larger margins of error and lower confidence intervals. This doesn't affect the trend they mention, since the numbers are so clear.

As to the beef in the matter, there's AFAIK zero evidence in the public domain to suggest that Bush or his minders would have somehow engineered 9/11 to happen. There is evidence in the public domain (for example Richard Clarke's book) that suggests preventing terrorism was a non-issue for Bush until 9/11, whereas for e.g. Clinton it was a high priority.
 
jamincan
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RE: Poll: More Americans Blame Bush For 9-11

Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:32 pm

A lot of people have said that the number included in the study wouldn't be sufficient based on intuition (1004 is a lot smaller than 300 million or so); however, the margin of error isn't actually related to the population size, only the sample size. I'll just quote from the handy link Mt99 posted above:

Quote:
So a sample of 1,600 people gives you a margin of error of 2.5 percent, which is pretty darn good for a poll. (See Margin of Error for more details on that term, and on polls in general.) Now, remember that the size of the entire population doesn't matter here. You could have a nation of 250,000 people or 250 million and that won't affect how big your sample needs to be to come within your desired margin of error. The Math Gods just don't care.

Now, as many people have already noted, the form and type of questions are far more important in determining a bias in the poll. Ultimately you have to rely on the reputation of the polling company, and in the end, reproducable results in other polls to determine its accuracy.

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