AerospaceFan
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Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 4:46 pm

In an October 14 article originating in the Los Angeles Times, America's top military officer expressed confidence in a U.S. victory if it came to war with North Korea.

With about two million soldiers available, the U.S. military would be able to handle a war in North Korea as it maintained a troop presence of approximately 200,000 in Iraq and Afghanstan, according to Marine Gen. Peter Pace, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Although the U.S. would prevail, the war could be messy, the General said, because precision weapons were in high demand among U.S. forces in the Middle East and larger numbers of unguided bombs and missiles would be used in a North Korean conflict than would be preferred. Moreover, the U.S. would rely heavily on the assets of the Air Force and Navy, he said.

Despite substantial military commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. maintains a large inventory of military equipment and conventional and nuclear ordnance, deployable on short notice from bases around the world and from aircraft carriers, other surface vessels, and submarines.

Four out of twelve U.S. aircraft carriers are currently deployed and about 45% of the U.S. active fleet of 281 major combat vessels is either underway, on patrol, or away from home port. The U.S. Navy maintains twenty-five large amphibious assault ships, each the size of a World War II aircraft carrier, eighteen of which are currently away from home. The U.S. Air Force maintains more than a hundred long-range bombers in readiness, including B-52's, B-1B's, and B-2's.

In November, 2004, a report allegedly circulated that the U.S. was prepared to drop up to 30 nuclear bombs from F-15E strike aircraft on targets in North Korea if Seoul, South Korea, were attacked.

For the Los Angeles Times article mentioned above, please see its publication in the following:

http://www.hamiltonspectator.com/NAS...id=1020420665036&col=1112101662670

Additional sources consulted:

http://www.navy.mil/navydata/navy_legacy.asp?id=146

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...cle&code=STA20041108&articleId=127

[Edited 2006-10-15 09:58:07]
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Elite
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 4:54 pm

Geographically North Korea has no hope of winning a battle. Currently, all of its surrounding countries (China, South Korea, Japan ect) are all on the US's side if the N. Korea crisis has to come down to a war. And the threat of a nuclear explosion is very unlikely (except for maybe S. Korea) as the nuclear bomb that N. Korea apparently has is immobile, and it cannot be fired like a missile to other countries. If N. Korea does somehow go to war, it's only a matter of time before they get defeated.
 
Mir
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 5:01 pm

There's no doubt that North Korea would lose a war, but the question in my mind is how much havoc they'd be able to wreak before that happened.

-Mir
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AerospaceFan
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 5:04 pm

The possibility of war in North Korea is a horrific one. There could be hundreds of thousands of military and civilian casualties on both sides of the border and the possibility of an initially successful invasion of South Korea and its capital city, Seoul.

I do not believe that the war would "go nuclear" from the standpoint of the United States, because the risks would be far too great, and this may be irrespective of whether North Korea initiates the use of one or more of their nuclear weapons, which is somewhat doubtful given their current state of development, but not impossible. China and Russia would immediately condemn the use of any nuclear weapons and their own militaries would go on the alert, heightening the risk of miscalculation. As it stands, the two countries currently oppose any military sanctions against North Korea, pursuant to the UN Resolution requiring North Korea to immediately give up its nuclear weapons just passed by a unanimous vote of the UN Security Council. And the Resolution specifically states that no such military sanctions will be used, although the U.S. Ambassador has stated that further measures will be considered if North Korea refuses to comply with UN Security Council demands. It would appear that Europe, also, would refuse to support the use of nuclear option and would call for its immediate cessation. There might even be calls on the left for some European countries to pull out of NATO. I think, therefore, that the U.S. would refrain from the use of any nuclear weapons even in a North Korean conflict unless as a last resort.

From what I've gathered, any initially successful invasion of the South would occur if the North overruns the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), as it appears possible for it to do. This could be their the North's response to any air attack against any of their facilities. Such an invasion would involve potentially thousands of U.S. and South Korean casualties over the course of the first four or five days.

The "best case scenario" on any military scale would be so-called "surgical strikes" on a wide range of North Korea nuclear, missile, and other facilities -- including the government complex and heavily reinforced leadership bunkers in and around Pyongyang in the hopes of a "decapitating attack", combined with an intensive defense of the DMZ including possible barrage of entrenched Northern positions there. Some experts seem to believe, however, that North Korea would immediately fire its missiles at Seoul at the first hint of such an attack, causing great havoc of its own. Shelters for such missiles are heavily fortified and well-hidden.

It would be, as Gen. Pace has said, messy.

[Edited 2006-10-15 10:28:33]
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ANCFlyer
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 5:11 pm

Quoting AerospaceFan (Thread starter):
America's top military officer expressed confidence in a U.S. victory if it came to war with North Korea.

I don't dispute Gen. Pace's position.

My question is: At what cost? To any side of the conflict. The real losers . . . the North Korean populace.
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Elite
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 5:13 pm

N. Koreas population is already suffering greatly currently under Kim...
 
AerospaceFan
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 5:17 pm

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 4):
My question is: At what cost? To any side of the conflict. The real losers . . . the North Korean populace.

I think both sides of the border could very well lose. It might only be a question of how much.

Besides the obvious human cost, the South Korean economy could lose twenty to thirty percent of its productivity within weeks, and it would not fully recover for years. There could be a currency crisis in the area, as well, as investors lose confidence in Northeast Asia. And there would the much-anticipated flood of refugees from North Korea to China.

The entire region could be set back by five to ten years.

From a purely selfish standpoint, we might find ourselves saying good-bye to good times for the aerospace industry, as economic retrenchment could cause that region's airlines to scale back their plans.

[Edited 2006-10-15 10:23:51]
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Elite
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 5:19 pm

South Korea already has an econimic crisis, and it would be a shame to see Korean Air go down (they were recently voted #1, if Im correct?)
 
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 5:22 pm

Quoting Elite (Reply 7):
South Korea already has an econimic crisis, and it would be a shame to see Korean Air go down (they were recently voted #1, if Im correct?)

I don't think that South Korea is doing that badly right now; last time I looked, their economy was within ten percent or so of the size of Russia's. But I think that we can anticipate a significant disruption in international commerce in that area if war comes. It would be tragic in every sense of the word.
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Elite
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 5:26 pm

That is true, but it would be really tragic if the entire world recieves more threats from N. Korea because by then they might've built even more powerful nuclear weapons and now has the ability to fire them at surrounding countries, or possibly the US.
 
FlyUSCG
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 5:27 pm

Well based on what I've seen from other members on this site... General Pace clearly has NO idea about our military capabilities in the North because there is no way possible all of the stuff the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs says is there is actually there. He also CLEARLY SAYS that we could whoop them no problem in only a matter of days and there would be virtually no loss on innocent life. (extreme sarcasm here)

*this is a rant towards some members on this site who ripped into me (thinking they know all there is to know)when I made virtually the EXACT same comments as the General and accused me of being uninformed, a warmonger, having no idea about our military capability in the region, etc...
N Korea Conducted A Nuclear Test? (by Dtwclipper Oct 9 2006 in Non Aviation)#1
please note my initial comment in reply #20, followed my comments saying how uninformed and stupid my comment was in replies #36, 38, 59(me), 143, 149, 152(me), 154, 162. So in conclusion, the ONLY thing I said in that other thread is that we would win. And apparently General Pace agrees with me but some of the other "informed" members on the site would disagree.

(hopefully this doesn't get deleted because it does have to do with the thread itself and also a pretty serious problem with how some of the more "respected" members on this site treat those who dont agree with them)
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AerospaceFan
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 5:33 pm

Quoting Elite (Reply 9):
That is true, but it would be really tragic if the entire world recieves more threats from N. Korea because by then they might've built even more powerful nuclear weapons and now has the ability to fire them at surrounding countries, or possibly the US.

Yes, and so we face the horns of a dilemma.

The National Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMD) is only a partial solution, because it isn't clear that it works sufficiently reliably. And while we're developing other measures, such as the Airborne Laser program (ABL), which is intended to allow an aircraft to shoot down a ballistic missile during its boost stage, the ABL hasn't been tested even once.

This is why the Bush Administration is trying so hard to get sanctions to work. The military solutions aren't very attractive, but neither is allowing the North Korean dictator to get his hands on any more nuclear technology. There are no obvious solutions, but only ways and means to pursue what is possible and least costly, at least for now.
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AerospaceFan
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 5:35 pm

Quoting FlyUSCG (Reply 10):
*this is a rant towards some members on this site who ripped into me (thinking they know all there is to know)when I made virtually the EXACT same comments as the General and accused me of being uninformed, a warmonger, having no idea about our military capability in the region, etc...

Well, I hope that we can keep this discussion civil, regardless of what others may have done elsewhere. We're doing okay, so far. Welcome to this thread.
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VHVXB
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 5:40 pm

Quoting Elite (Reply 7):
South Korea already has an econimic crisis

you can also add Japan in that group as well
 
Elite
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 5:41 pm

Quoting AerospaceFan (Reply 11):
Airborne Laser program (ABL)

Yeah, I read that in a TIME magazine, or somewhere. They were nicknaming it "Star-Wars-like defense".
 
TedTAce
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 5:47 pm

Ok Aerospace Fan, instead of quoting the article you ramble on about we have this available to us and that available to us like you have a clue. As I have previously demonstrated you don't.

Your Numbers and presumptions are based on god knows what and apparently don't take into consideration that we currently have troops/assets deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan (just to name a couple of obvious ones).

Now if you meant your initial post to be a quote I'll apologize and merely ask you for a source. If you are just basing it off whatever  redflag  CNN/FOX spoon fed you I'm sorry you choose to be that sheepish.


That being said an engagement with North Korea is a very complicated issue at this time. Do I think we would win? Almost certainly; this would be a very supportable war regardless of the current administrations bunglings. But several things need to occur and it will take at least the invasion of S. Korea before we could get Russian and Chinese permission to attack. Until that happens I suggest we let Donald Rumsfield (as stupid as he apparently is) worry about what's where and how to get it deployed in case that happens.
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FlyUSCG
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 5:49 pm

Quoting AerospaceFan (Reply 12):
Well, I hope that we can keep this discussion civil, regardless of what others may have done elsewhere. We're doing okay, so far. Welcome to this thread.

Indeed. And it's definitely nice of the General to give the public some numbers to prove that our force isn't as weak as many would like to think.
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ANCFlyer
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 5:50 pm

Quoting TedTAce (Reply 15):
I suggest we let Donald Rumsfield (as stupid as he apparently is) worry about what's where and how to get it deployed in case that happens.

Oh, Hell No . . . he'd send a few Stryker Brigades and do it on the cheap . . . Geezus Ted T . . . if we HAVE to go up against North Korea, being left with no choice at all, I pray it happens after Dumsfeld is long gone . . .
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 5:51 pm

Quoting Elite (Reply 14):
Yeah, I read that in a TIME magazine, or somewhere. They were nicknaming it "Star-Wars-like defense".

The ground-based section of the BMD consists of a number of highly advanced interceptor rockets located on two military bases -- one each in Alaska and California. The goal of these interceptors is to intercept long-range ballistic missiles while they are in their flight stage outside the atmosphere. Previous tests of these interceptors have yielded mixed results. However, the last test was deemed a success.^1 This component may be the best-known feature of U.S. missile defense, but there are also other components, including segments using advanced Patriot missiles and ship-board Aegis surface-to-air missiles. A worldwide suite of sensors, including those based on military satellites, is used to detect and track missile threats.

As of now, the ABL is not nearly operational and it hasn't even been tested yet. (There is a recent thread about an aspect of it in the Military Aviation & Space Forum of this site.)

The U.S. Missile Defense Agency coordinates the evolving capabilities of the United States to defend itself and its allies against ballistic missile threats.

Their official Website is at:

http://www.mda.mil/mdalink/html/mdalink.html

For an unofficial but still comprehensive source of information, please see:

http://www.missilethreat.com/systems/

There are also other official U.S. Government Websites that you can easily find for yourself.

_______________________________

1. See, e.g., Cloud, David S., "Missile Defense Intercepts Rocket in Test", The New York Times, article dated September 2, 2006, at: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/02/wa...465&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

[Edit of 2006-10-15 11:09:22: Corrected designation of bases for BMD, courtesy of ANCFlyer.]

[Edited 2006-10-15 11:11:02]
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TedTAce
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 5:53 pm

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 17):
I pray it happens after Dumsfeld is long gone . . .

If I was a praying man I would too. Unfortuately I'm not optimistic we have that long.
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 5:57 pm

I have no doubt the US would win a war against North Korea.

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 4):
I don't dispute Gen. Pace's position.

My question is: At what cost?

Exactly! But, having created huge clusterfucks in Afghanistan and Iraq, why not go for three in a row?

Quoting Elite (Reply 5):
N. Koreas population is already suffering greatly currently under Kim...

So were the folks living in Iraq under Sadam. Now they might struggle to decide if they were better of with him or without him.

Quoting Elite (Reply 7):
South Korea already has an econimic crisis, and it would be a shame to see Korean Air go down (they were recently voted #1, if Im correct?)

Because the loss of those smart blue planes would be a tragic consequence of a bloody war that could easily claim the lives of hundreds of thousands. scratchchin 
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ANCFlyer
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 6:01 pm

Quoting AerospaceFan (Reply 18):
two Air Force bases -- one each in Alaska

Ft. Greely, Alaska is an Army Installation - thank you.
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AerospaceFan
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 6:05 pm

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 21):
Ft. Greely, Alaska is an Army Installation - thank you.

Sorry about that. You're right, of course.

Changed reference accordingly, with acknowledgment.

[Edited 2006-10-15 11:11:28]
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MCIGuy
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 6:06 pm

This isn't the 1950's. I have no doubts we could put a footprint where DPRK used to be. The B-1's and B-2's out of Guam could get there pretty quickly and litter the skies with ALCM's and then there's the Navy, but in this case you have to ask "at what cost".

[Edited 2006-10-15 11:24:23]
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AerospaceFan
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 6:23 pm

Further thoughts: There is one rather peculiar "joker" in the deck, so to speak, that one might consider: The possibility that North Korea may, indeed, have one or more missiles capable of reaching the United States that, moreover, could be equipped with nuclear warheads. So far, both of the major undertakings violative of international requirements that North Korea had declared it would conduct -- that it will fire its longest-range ballistic missiles (accomplished on July 4, 2006), and that it will conduct a nuclear test (evidently accomplished last week) -- have occurred, although there is doubt as to the nature of the latter or at least whether it was entirely successful. North Korea has just said that it may consider the acts of the United States to be an act of war that would cause it to send a nuclear-tipped missile toward it. While most experts seem to doubt that North Korea has developed a nuclear warhead light enough to allow this threat to be carried out, or even that it has a missile capable of reaching any part of the United States, there are few certainties in this regard and thus we would be well-advised to keep our ballistic missile defenses on appropriate alert accordingly.

If the U.S. itself should be successfully attacked by such means, all bets are off and there would be calls for the complete annihilation of all North Korean faciilities by all means necessary for their elimination, regardless of collateral cost. Whether such calls would be heeded is to me, presently, unclear. But the odds are that we will not face this question. At least, one hopes so.

[Edited 2006-10-15 11:28:33]
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Elite
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 6:28 pm

If the N. Koreans do fire a nuclear warhead, or just a normal missile, at the US, then they clearly have intentions of war and at that time the entire world would turn against them.
 
AerospaceFan
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 6:30 pm

Quoting Elite (Reply 25):
If the N. Koreans do fire a nuclear warhead, or just a normal missile, at the US, then they clearly have intentions of war and at that time the entire world would turn against them.

I think you'd be right, and indeed, virtually the entire world is against them already. But still there would be those who would counsel against the use of U.S. nuclear weapons -- particularly in places like Japan.
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MCIGuy
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 6:32 pm

Even if you hit a nuclear reactor with conventional weapons you're going to get subtantial fallout that would drift directly over Japan. Once a reactor is fueled, it changes everything.

BTW, as for DPRK launching an ICBM attack against the US, I think we'd have a trick or two up our sleeves there. The systems at NORAD have incredible power and in most cases can calculate an impact point immediately after detecting a launch. Unless he was able to launch a massive attack (doubtful), we'd probably have enough SM-3 equipped Aegis boats in theater to take care of it.

[Edited 2006-10-15 11:40:20]
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AerospaceFan
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 6:37 pm

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 27):
Even if you hit a nuclear reactor with conventional weapons you're going to get subtantial fallout that would drift directly over Japan. Once a reactor is fueled, it changes everything.

That may be true, but would it be the same as the phenomena of radiation burns, for example, that a nuclear weapon would cause? I think that there would be much emphasis on that.

You are correct, naturally, that nuclear fallout from reactors can be extremely deadly. If I recall correctly, the casualties from the Chernobyl accident were truly horrific; for one thing, everyone who responded to the initial emergency there, as I understand it, has died of radiation poisoning, not to mention the effects it had on the surrounding inhabited areas and the heightened risks the cloud mass of radioactive particles caused in Europe and elsewhere.

[Edited 2006-10-15 11:40:21]
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speedbird747BA
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 10:57 pm

Quoting AerospaceFan (Reply 3):
China and Russia would immediately condemn the use of any nuclear weapons and their own militaries would go on the alert, heightening the risk of miscalculation.

(sarcasm) Oh my goodness......no way! Come on people, this is China and Russia, they condemn pretty much everything the US does when they have enough of their own problems to sort out!

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 4):
My question is: At what cost? To any side of the conflict. The real losers . . . the North Korean populace.

No i disagree there. Do you honestly think that Kim would stay in power if we went to war with N. Korea? No, the people (while there would be some casualties, yes) would be liberated from that tyrant that pretty much starves them. They'd be much better off without him.

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 27):
Even if you hit a nuclear reactor with conventional weapons you're going to get subtantial fallout that would drift directly over Japan. Once a reactor is fueled, it changes everything.

Really? I dont think there was any fallout from the attack on the reactor in Iraq by the Israelis...

My 2 cents: I dont think Kim is stupid enough to start a war with us, however i do think that he is crazy enough. If it really started getting heated, which i highly doubt it would, we could bust out some of the fancier stuff and put some boots on the ground. After all, a defense budget of around 5,000,000,000,000 dollars can do quite a bit of damage when it needs to. The defensive and offensive systems of the US are FAR more advanced. Also, while no one wants a war there, I also don't think that can be solved diplomatically, probably the best solution would be to take out Kim and some of his more fanatical cronies.

Quoting Elite (Reply 7):
South Korea already has an econimic crisis, and it would be a shame to see Korean Air go down (they were recently voted #1, if Im correct?)

No, South Korea has a decent economy, with giants like hyundai there.

Final thoughts: why is evryone so worried/concerned about missiles or nukes from n. korea? after al, when have you ever bought something that said 'made in korea' that actually worked?  Big grin

Cheers,
Kyle
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RichardPrice
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 11:00 pm

Well, if a 'Win' constitutes the current situations in Iraq and Afghanistan, both wars which the US (and UK) 'won', theres no doubt that the war is 'winnable', the question becomes 'what happens after the regime is ineffective?'
 
speedbird747BA
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 11:06 pm

Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 30):
Well, if a 'Win' constitutes the current situations in Iraq and Afghanistan, both wars which the US (and UK) 'won', theres no doubt that the war is 'winnable', the question becomes 'what happens after the regime is ineffective?'

Thats different, we knew those would be unconventioanl wars when we went in, and after 9/11 the pres did tell us we were in it for the long haul, a war with N. Korea would be much more conventional.

Cheers,
Kyle
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skidmarks
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 11:13 pm

Well, for all the power available to the US and her allies, they failed once to sort out North Korea and, despite any percieved optimism about Russia and China allying to the US, I think they would find themselves again in a Vietnam sort of situation.

I do not think force is they way to get the current regime out of North Korea and I do not think force will benefit anyone other than the arms manufacturers and maybe some gung ho types in the various military organisations.

I think for all their poverty and oppression, the North Koreans would fight back a lot harder than imagined. Despite what they might think of their rulers, they probably feel, like anyone else, an incursion into their land is wrong and they will fight. They have little enough now, what would they have to lose?

It would take a monumental propaganda programme to convince them that the US and allies are coming in to release them and not to enslave them. And the current regime is one up on them already, with the propaganda already in place and working on all four!

These are all my own thoughts, not backed up with any articles, papers or whathave you. Just a deep feeling that this isn't the way forward and there has to be a better way. Not that I can think of one right at this minute.

Andy  old 
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RichardPrice
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 11:23 pm

Quoting Speedbird747BA (Reply 31):

Thats different, we knew those would be unconventioanl wars when we went in, and after 9/11 the pres did tell us we were in it for the long haul, a war with N. Korea would be much more conventional.

Why? What would be different? In both cases you were fighting against a second rate military on its own turf and only later it turned into a guerilla war against unknowns and regime remnants such as the Taliban. What would be done different in NK to stop this from happening there?
 
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 11:41 pm

Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 30):

Well, if a 'Win' constitutes the current situations in Iraq and Afghanistan, both wars which the US (and UK) 'won', theres no doubt that the war is 'winnable', the question becomes 'what happens after the regime is ineffective?'

What would be the source of agitation, however? And who would supply weaponry, supplies, and money?

The Middle East has a number of sources for each of the above. The Taliban are religiously motivated, at least in part. Sectarian and cultural differences mark the quasi-civil war in Iraq. Oil money and arms suppliers are plentiful.

I suppose if China supplies North Korea again, the way they did during the Korean conflict, then you'd have a good chance of a Vietnam-like war.

Keep in mind, as well, that the South Korea of today is quite different from the South Korea of the 1950's. South Korea has the tenth largest national economy in the world, according to current statistics, with a GDP of $801 billion -- ranking higher than Russia's. They could certainly well afford to substantially fund and accomplish their own defense.

See:

http://www.photius.com/rankings/econ...official_exchange_rate_2006_0.html

(Note: On the above Webpage, South Korea is ranked twelfth, but the top two entities are "World" and "European Union". Neither "World" nor "European Union" are countries.)

This is not to say that such a war would not be horrible, but merely that it might turn out to be Vietnam War-like.
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speedbird747BA
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Sun Oct 15, 2006 11:57 pm

Quoting Skidmarks (Reply 32):
Well, for all the power available to the US and her allies, they failed once to sort out North Korea

No, we failed to sort out NK, China, both with support from Russia.

Cheers,
Kyle
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baroque
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Mon Oct 16, 2006 12:09 am

Would someone remind me what happened the last time we had a Korean war. I seem to remember remarkable defeats followed by remarkable victories followed by even more remarkable defeats when a certain commander pissed off the Chinese, and then a really bloody stalemate.

But I must be wrong, surely nobody would be wanting to go there again, would they?

Anyone want to guarantee that nobody in the current administration would not again piss of the Chinese? If they did, the Chinese might decide to let the US bleed rather than assist.

In the meantime, dumb old Kim has arranged a trip wire that will almost certainly wreck S Korea to a depth of about 30 kms if he is pushed.

What plans are there to protect most of Seoul from being demolished? After all, Kim just had an object lesson in how to do it courtesy of the US armed Israel.

"How to get yourself into an untenable position", the title of the forthcoming volume on US foreign policy towards N Korea. Not sure what the sequel will be called.
 
AerospaceFan
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Mon Oct 16, 2006 12:15 am

Quoting Baroque (Reply 36):
What plans are there to protect most of Seoul from being demolished? After all, Kim just had an object lesson in how to do it courtesy of the US armed Israel.

One difference is that Hamas put their missiles in densely populated areas. I don't think that that's the same thing in North Korea. For one thing, it's a much larger country than Lebanon and the distances involved are much larger than between southern Lebanon and northern Israel. The fortifications for their artillery pieces and missiles that threaten Seoul are said to be near the border area, which, strictly speaking is hardly populated. Allied forces could bomb the hell out of that area without risking nearly as many as Israel would have had it pulled out all the stops. (Keep in mind that Israel limited itself to certain strict rules in order to minimize collateral damage.)

However, you're right that they might lob ballistic missiles from further inland, which is where Patriot missiles that were never used in the Israel-Lebanon debacle (because the distances were two small) might come in handy.
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baroque
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Mon Oct 16, 2006 4:16 am

Quoting AerospaceFan (Reply 37):
Allied forces could bomb the hell out of that area without risking nearly as many as Israel would have had it pulled out all the stops.

Have check on how long that border is and assume a belt about 20 to 40 km deep. That is a lot of bombing, and you have about 5 minutes to get it done before all hell descends on Seoul. As I said, the Kims are not stupid - that is a sort of joke because there are so many Kims, some are bound not to be stupid!

These guys have been thinking since about 1952 how to make sure sufficient of their artillery and rockets will survive whatever is thrown at them. They probably have not proofed them against nukes, because they assume their cousins over the border don't wish to get the fallout. But maybe they have. Those granite mountains will certainly be suitable for producing pretty resistant bunkers. Just driving around Seoul the road tunnels give you an idea what an enthusiastic mole could do!

Your battle plan might be listed, but it will be well down the list, put there both by the US and the S Koreans who don't want to find out how well the N Koreans have hidden their stuff the hard way. They really are a tough bunch, or they certainly were during the period when the war was fought to a stalemate. Have you read about some of the late battles? Dreadful stuff.
 
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Mon Oct 16, 2006 5:20 am

Quoting Speedbird747BA (Reply 29):
Really? I dont think there was any fallout from the attack on the reactor in Iraq by the Israelis...

That's because in 1981, the Osirak reactor hadn't been fueled with Plutonium yet. In fact, the IDFAF had to execute the mission pretty quickly because if I remember right, the reactor was due to be fueled within days (by the French, I think). AerospaceFan had it right when he asserted that it'd be much like Chernobyl. Other countries might want to go to war with the US saying that fallout is drifting over them.

[Edited 2006-10-15 22:31:25]
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AerospaceFan
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Mon Oct 16, 2006 8:14 am

Quoting Baroque (Reply 38):
Your battle plan might be listed, but it will be well down the list, put there both by the US and the S Koreans who don't want to find out how well the N Koreans have hidden their stuff the hard way. They really are a tough bunch, or they certainly were during the period when the war was fought to a stalemate. Have you read about some of the late battles? Dreadful stuff.

I don't doubt it at all. It would be a horrible war, as I said. But still, I think that it would be a different war from Vietnam, because the South would be much more able to participate in their own defense than the South Vietnamese, who, at the time, were not at all economically advanced.

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 39):
AerospaceFan had it right when he asserted that it'd be much like Chernobyl.

Thank you for that. It seems a sad fact that radiation and fallout could be a severe environmental issue possibly for decades to come.
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greasespot
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Mon Oct 16, 2006 8:51 am

Quoting Elite (Reply 7):
South Korea already has an econimic crisis, and it would be a shame to see Korean Air go down (they were recently voted #1, if Im correct?)

Are you for real...he country is possibly destroyed and your worried about an airline......Wow now that is shallow...

GS
Sometimes all you can do is look them in the eye and ask " how much did your mom drink when she was pregnant with you?"
 
speedbird747BA
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Mon Oct 16, 2006 9:50 am

Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 39):
That's because in 1981, the Osirak reactor hadn't been fueled with Plutonium yet. In fact, the IDFAF had to execute the mission pretty quickly because if I remember right, the reactor was due to be fueled within days (by the French, I think). AerospaceFan had it right when he asserted that it'd be much like Chernobyl. Other countries might want to go to war with the US saying that fallout is drifting over them.

Yes it was the French....the French also (against the will of much of the worl sold them the reactor!!

Cheers,
Kyle
How long do I have to climb, up on the side of this mountain of mine?
 
halls120
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Mon Oct 16, 2006 10:26 am

Quoting FlyUSCG (Reply 10):
this is a rant towards some members on this site who ripped into me (thinking they know all there is to know)when I made virtually the EXACT same comments as the General and accused me of being uninformed, a warmonger, having no idea about our military capability in the region, etc...

Gen Pace is the Chairman of the JCS. He has to say we would win.

Yes, we would win. Eventually. But as one of the ones who you are now whining about having "ripped" into you, I'd like to point out that the article in fact supports what I said in the other thread about the dangers of entering into a war with North Korea at the present time - the fact that we don't have enough ground troops available to send to the front.

Quote:
Marine Gen. Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that slightly more than 200,000 U.S. servicemen are deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan, leaving more than 2 million troops available for a war on an Asian front.

But he acknowledged that a conflict with North Korea, which Pace and President George Bush have described as highly unlikely, would be heavily reliant on the Navy and Air Force because of the significant deployment of land forces in Iraq.

So yes, we can bomb the hell out of them using the air force and the navy. But we - the US - don't have enough troops available for immediate deployment to North Korea. And you can't occupy territory with air force and navy planes.

And yes, IMO, you aren't very well informed about our military capability.

Here we are, stuck in the middle of a huge morass in Iraq which was caused in part by the failure of the Pentagon - the civilian leadership, to be exact - to recognize that a successful combat operation isn't just let's waltz in, win, and go home, and you and the other cheerleaders apparently want to replicate the Iraq experience in North Korea.

According to the CBO, "More than 180,000 U.S. military personnel are now deployed to the Iraqi theater of operations (which includes Kuwait). Over 165,000 of them are Army soldiers, including the equivalent of about five divisions' worth of combat forces. Although some Air Force and Navy personnel will almost certainly be involved in the U.S. force in Iraq, the bulk of the units and personnel needed in the occupation will be ground troops."

Also, note what else the CBO had to say about Iraq and its effect on our ability to respond to other contingencies: "DoD could free up additional units for rotation to Iraq by withdrawing Army forces from the Sinai Peninsula, Bosnia, and Kosovo and Marine Corps infantry regiments from Okinawa. Although eliminating those troop commitments could have significant diplomatic and political consequences, it would increase the size of the occupation force that could be sustained in Iraq by another 12,000 to 13,000 military personnel--equivalent to 2? brigades. Overall levels of reserve-component mobilization would not change appreciably, since reserve personnel who would have been deployed to Bosnia, Kosovo, or the Sinai Peninsula would still be mobilized but deployed to Iraq instead."

Perhaps my opinion is a bit harsh. But I've served, and you haven't, so yes, I do consider your eagerness to be more than a tad bit misinformed.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 36):
Would someone remind me what happened the last time we had a Korean war. I seem to remember remarkable defeats followed by remarkable victories followed by even more remarkable defeats when a certain commander pissed off the Chinese, and then a really bloody stalemate.

But I must be wrong, surely nobody would be wanting to go there again, would they?

Anyone want to guarantee that nobody in the current administration would not again piss of the Chinese? If they did, the Chinese might decide to let the US bleed rather than assist.

Baroque, you just don't get it.  Wink as some of our rah-rah let's go to war in yet another part of the world folks are suggesting, we will surgically eliminate all of North Korea's offensive capability within hours of the commencement of hostilities. Yes, perhaps several million people might die once the conflict spins out of control, but hey, not our problem.  stirthepot 
"Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself." Mark Twain, a Biography
 
ANCFlyer
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Mon Oct 16, 2006 11:09 am

Quoting FlyUSCG (Reply 10):

 cry 

Quoting Elite (Reply 25):
If the N. Koreans do fire a nuclear warhead, or just a normal missile, at the US, then they clearly have intentions of war and at that time the entire world would turn against them.

If that happened, North Korea would cease to exist in its current state . . . in short order.

Might I add, once again, if this country had pursued Star Wars - the Strategic Defense Initiative, under Reagan, instead of pursuing this bastardized program started under Bush 1 and continued under Clinton, we'd have a viable, functioning anti-Missile defense system in place and operational already. Alas, the bean counters and politicians strike again . . . amazing isn't it . . . how shortsighted those assmonkeys are.

Quoting Speedbird747BA (Reply 29):
Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 4):
My question is: At what cost? To any side of the conflict. The real losers . . . the North Korean populace.

No i disagree there. Do you honestly think that Kim would stay in power if we went to war with N. Korea? No, the people (while there would be some casualties, yes) would be liberated from that tyrant that pretty much starves them. They'd be much better off without him.

You're missing the point here Speedbird . . . no question but the Krazy Kim would be dead and gone. Period. But the cost to his starving uber impoverished people would be enormous. Those poor people are already suffering greatly as it is, to begin a war in their back yards would devastate the countryside. What little they do have would be annihilated leaving them even worse off.

Quoting Skidmarks (Reply 32):
Well, for all the power available to the US and her allies, they failed once to sort out North Korea and

Only because the North Koreans got the aid of a hundred million screaming Chinamen all of the sudden. Prior to China's intervention, we mowed over the North Koreans.

Quoting Halls120 (Reply 43):

 checkmark 
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Mon Oct 16, 2006 1:34 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 36):
Would someone remind me what happened the last time we had a Korean war. I seem to remember remarkable defeats followed by remarkable victories followed by even more remarkable defeats when a certain commander pissed off the Chinese, and then a really bloody stalemate.

If I'm not mistaken, a certain commander was withheld from advancing into China at the order of his Commander-in-Chief.

-R
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AerospaceFan
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Mon Oct 16, 2006 3:33 pm

"Old soldiers never die...."

There's never been anyone quite like "Mac", as his peers called him. Except maybe Patton.
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skidmarks
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Mon Oct 16, 2006 3:59 pm

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 44):
Only because the North Koreans got the aid of a hundred million screaming Chinamen all of the sudden. Prior to China's intervention, we mowed over the North Koreans.

Indeed they did. And do you think for one minute the Chinese WANT a large American led army right on their doorstep?

For all their condemnation of the Nuclear testing, I can't see the Chinese standing by while the US and her allies calmy waltz into North Korea and install a standing army on her borders.

They may not be overt about it (to start with) but I feel pretty sure they wouldn't stand by and watch their neighbour get Westernised without doing anything.

I just get the feeling that, if America and Co. do decide to start in North Korea, it will NOT be as easy and as quick as is being expressed here.

Just my thoughts so no need to get uppity about them. I have the greatest respect for the American armed services but they are not supermen and politicians ALWAYS screw things up. This could shape up to be one massive cluster-fuck!!

Andy  old 
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baroque
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Mon Oct 16, 2006 5:34 pm

Quoting Allstarflyer (Reply 45):
If I'm not mistaken, a certain commander was withheld from advancing into China at the order of his Commander-in-Chief.

Indeed he was, but too late, the Chinese had committed to the N Korean side. His dismissal was pretty dramatic too, so I am still wondering about the use of the term withheld. It was a bit like the attack on Arnhem, a river too far. Just getting that close to the Yalu had triggered the Chinese response. And yet, if I recall correctly McA still got a ticker tape reception in spite of having caused an intervention that plunged the US (and its poor bloody allies) into a prolonged and apparently unwinnable, I will repeat that, unwinnable war.

Quoting Halls120 (Reply 43):
Baroque, you just don't get it. Wink as some of our rah-rah let's go to war in yet another part of the world folks are suggesting, we will surgically eliminate all of North Korea's offensive capability within hours of the commencement of hostilities. Yes, perhaps several million people might die once the conflict spins out of control, but hey, not our problem.

A strange post Halls120, you almost had me nodding in agreement and then I slowly started to realise we were (as ever!!) on different courses.

Just one question, what is this strategy for "surgically eliminat"ing N Kor offensive capability "within hours". Apart from anything else, within hours is too late. Those artillery pieces will have been firing at what 3 or 4 rounds a minute, who knows what the rockets will run to.

So too little, and just HOW?

Precision weapons would have made a difference bombing N Kor bridges in the early fifties, but silly old Kim has got an area target.

Yes, around about 50 to 100 tactical nuclear weapons would do the trick, but they would also make most of S Korea and later Japan uninhabitable. It would probably also bring in the Chinese again.

So what is this magic bullet - do share the secret!
 
ANCFlyer
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RE: Gen. Pace: U.S. Would Win War In N. Korea

Mon Oct 16, 2006 5:41 pm

Quoting Skidmarks (Reply 47):
Indeed they did. And do you think for one minute the Chinese WANT a large American led army right on their doorstep?

Nope, which is why it's up to them to kick this Krazy Kim in the ass and tell him to knock it off . . . and I think they will, in their own way, in their own time.

Quoting Skidmarks (Reply 47):
I just get the feeling that, if America and Co. do decide to start in North Korea, it will NOT be as easy and as quick as is being expressed here.

And I agree completely. Moving solely against the North Korean Army is one thing, have a replay of the 1950s is quite another. China won't sit idly by and allow that . . .
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