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jetjack74
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Will It Break The Barrier

Tue Oct 17, 2006 3:54 am

In this "terrible", "awful", "worst run" economy in US history, will the DJIA break 12,000? It's only about 20-something points away. This would be the all time high for the stock exchange.
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TedTAce
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RE: Will It Break The Barrier

Tue Oct 17, 2006 4:23 am

Why not? After all the index is not a solid watermark of the economy.
It's good for day to day impressions and reflecting some things that are happening with the economy BUT using the stock market to tell that everything in the economy is one way or another is absolutely plain foolishness.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor...ymbol=SYMC&C1=0&C2=2&CB=&CF=0&D3=0

is ONE example that things are not what they were a few years ago.
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MYT332
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RE: Will It Break The Barrier

Tue Oct 17, 2006 4:25 am

In answer to the thread title alone:

It depends how hard you penetrate.
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Arniepie
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RE: Will It Break The Barrier

Tue Oct 17, 2006 5:11 am

Quoting Jetjack74 (Thread starter):
will the DJIA break 12,000? It's only about 20-something points away. This would be the all time high for the stock exchange.

Knowing that the oil/energy sector are having a golden time  dollarsign  dollarsign  dollarsign  and taking in mind their weight on the Dow it can stay up there for some time to come.
But like TedTace said it isn't an absolute indicator for the health of the economy.

 twocents 
[edit post]
 
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jetjack74
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RE: Will It Break The Barrier

Tue Oct 17, 2006 5:34 am

Quoting TedTAce (Reply 1):
After all the index is not a solid watermark of the economy.

No, but it's an indication of where the economy is heading. Investor confidence is fueled by consumer confidence, quarterly financial results, quarterly outlook, and so on, and so on.

Quoting TedTAce (Reply 1):
BUT using the stock market to tell that everything in the economy is one way or another is absolutely plain foolishness

Of course, but 7 years ago, it was a campaign platform for the Democratic party and 4 years ago, it was political football when President Bush introduced his stimulus package to jumpstart the economy after 9/11. You see Ted, whatever it means to either side, you can't dispute the fact that a strong economy needs a strong stock market index. It was true under Clinton, just as it is true under Bush.

Quoting Arniepie (Reply 3):
Knowing that the oil/energy sector are having a golden time

Hardly a golden time. A barrel of oil has lost almost a quarter of it's value since it nose dived.

Quoting Arniepie (Reply 3):
and taking in mind their weight on the Dow it can stay up there for some time to come.

The simple fact that the economy was able to withstand the high price of oil, shows the overall strength of the economy. Just my   

Quoting Arniepie (Reply 3):
But like TedTace said it isn't an absolute indicator for the health of the economy.


#1 absolute was never stated, #2 anyone can find a chart, or a graph to outline their argument.

[Edited 2006-10-16 22:48:05]
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kaddyuk
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RE: Will It Break The Barrier

Tue Oct 17, 2006 8:39 am

Quoting Myt332 (Reply 2):
It depends how hard you penetrate.

Ahh... the victim of experience speaks up...
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MYT332
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RE: Will It Break The Barrier

Tue Oct 17, 2006 8:51 am

Quoting Kaddyuk (Reply 5):
Ahh... the victim of experience speaks up...

Yes, you hurt me...  Yeah sure
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AirCop
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RE: Will It Break The Barrier

Tue Oct 17, 2006 8:55 am

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 4):

No, but it's an indication of where the economy is heading

Not really as Ted as pointed out. There was an indepth article I read last week (can't remember what publication I read it in) that pointed out that several of the other economic indicators are on a downward spiral, most notably real estate.
 
aa61hvy
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RE: Will It Break The Barrier

Tue Oct 17, 2006 8:58 am

Quoting Myt332 (Reply 2):
It depends how hard you penetrate.

KY Jelly works wonders my friend (on chicks)
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dtwclipper
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RE: Will It Break The Barrier

Tue Oct 17, 2006 9:01 am

Quoting AirCop (Reply 7):
Not really as Ted as pointed out. There was an indepth article I read last week (can't remember what publication I read it in) that pointed out that several of the other economic indicators are on a downward spiral, most notably real estate.

It was in Newsweek.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15173073/site/newsweek/
"I'll let you in on a little secret: even though the Dow has broken the high that it set on Jan. 14, 2000, the market is nowhere near its all-time high. That's because the 30-stock Dow Jones industrial average isn't the same thing as the U.S. stock market. Not even close. Although the Dow notched three straight records and ended the week close to 12,000, the real market indicators are still way below their highs"
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AirCop
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RE: Will It Break The Barrier

Tue Oct 17, 2006 9:31 am

Thanks Dtwclipper, I knew that I read it someplace and Newsweek is one of my regular reads.
 
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jetjack74
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RE: Will It Break The Barrier

Tue Oct 17, 2006 1:06 pm

Quoting AirCop (Reply 7):
There was an indepth article I read last week (can't remember what publication I read it in) that pointed out that several of the other economic indicators are on a downward spiral, most notably real estate.

Is it? Hrrmmm. So Bush and his are cooking the books and end of day results in order to fool the American people? This declining indicators concerning real estate is the market is a market settling into the place. We had 3 straight of strong new home sales due to low intrest rates. Yes, it was a great time to buy new homes, more people were able to qualify for low interest rate or interest-only loans for a mortgage, but it's conventional wisdom that's going to tell you that the market is going to cool. There is little change here on the west coast as far a existing home sales, the prices of homes and condos are still very high even with value deppreciating. The home prices average is going down, but homes routinely sell way over what properties are sensibly worth. They may sit a little longer, but the sale prices are still holding steady.

Quoting AirCop (Reply 10):
I knew that I read it someplace and Newsweek is one of my regular reads.

You may want to recognise the fact that Newsweek has a habit of skewing facts, such as they did over the Gitmo story about prisoner abuse in January of this year. Their mis-representation of the truth led to bloody riots in Islamic world in such places as Afghanistan and Pakistan that were front page stories until the facts came out. So you may want expand your selection of regular reads. Another thing is, this is another Op-editorial with opinions stated only, not facts. And Mr. Allan Sloan has a masters in Journalism, not in finance. He may be well knowledged in stocks and bonds, but the experts are frequently wrong. You frequently hear these guys crowing when they're right, but they're no where to be found when their predictions are found to be innacurate. Let's just see how this plays out.

[Edited 2006-10-17 06:12:41]
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ANCFlyer
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RE: Will It Break The Barrier

Tue Oct 17, 2006 1:31 pm

Quoting Arniepie (Reply 3):
Knowing that the oil/energy sector are having a golden time

You should have a look at BP and Conoco/Phillips and their problems in Alaska. Not such a "golden time" up here . . . I'll let you do the research though. BP alone will face hundreds of millions of dollars in repair costs and fines. The only thing golden BP is getting at the moment is a shower . . .

Oil prices are under $60bbl but the market continues to rise.


Quoting AirCop (Reply 7):
that pointed out that several of the other economic indicators are on a downward spiral, most notably real estate.

And like everything that booms, it will bust. This is cyclic. All things indicated that eventually the Real Estate market would top out, and begin to drop off. The economy could only absorb so much overinflated pricing. Now it's beginning to stabilize, prices will drop a bit and the market will level out.
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bill142
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RE: Will It Break The Barrier

Tue Oct 17, 2006 8:40 pm

Quoting Myt332 (Reply 6):
Yes, you hurt me...

But did he break you?
 
MYT332
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RE: Will It Break The Barrier

Tue Oct 17, 2006 8:45 pm

Quoting AA61Hvy (Reply 8):
KY Jelly works wonders my friend (on chicks)

Don't worry, I wasn't thinking you had tested it on guys.

Quoting Bill142 (Reply 13):
But did he break you?

Mentally.
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dtwclipper
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RE: Will It Break The Barrier

Tue Oct 17, 2006 9:45 pm

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 11):
You may want to recognise the fact that Newsweek has a habit of skewing facts, such as they did over the Gitmo story about prisoner abuse in January of this year. Their mis-representation of the truth led to bloody riots in Islamic world in such places as Afghanistan and Pakistan that were front page stories until the facts came out. So you may want expand your selection of regular reads. Another thing is, this is another Op-editorial with opinions stated only, not facts. And Mr. Allan Sloan has a masters in Journalism, not in finance. He may be well knowledged in stocks and bonds, but the experts are frequently wrong. You frequently hear these guys crowing when they're right, but they're no where to be found when their predictions are found to be innacurate. Let's just see how this plays out.

Why is it, that if you don't like the message you immediately attack the messenger and accuse the writer of bias and anti-bush tactics?

Sloan is a well respected business writer, and without taking this down a notch, he is most assuredly more astute to the truth of the matter then you OR I.

I guess if the report was in the WSJ it would be ok?

"Allan Sloan, Newsweek’s Wall Street editor, has won numerous awards and honors in his 30-year business writing career. Sloan, who joined Newsweek in March of 1995, is a six-time winner of the Gerald Loeb Award, business journalism’s highest honor. In 2001, he received the Loeb Lifetime Achievement Award for business and financial journalism, which gives him Loebs in four different categories in four different decades for four different employers. He also won the Distinguished Achievement Award from the Society of American Business Editors and Writers in 2001, and had previously won the John Hancock Award for excellence in business and financial journalism."
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4916786/site/newsweek/
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Arniepie
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RE: Will It Break The Barrier

Tue Oct 17, 2006 9:49 pm

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 4):
Quoting Arniepie (Reply 3):
Knowing that the oil/energy sector are having a golden time

Hardly a golden time. A barrel of oil has lost almost a quarter of it's value since it nose dived.

Quoting Arniepie (Reply 3):
and taking in mind their weight on the Dow it can stay up there for some time to come.

The simple fact that the economy was able to withstand the high price of oil, shows the overall strength of the economy. Just my

Knowing that most current fields are profitable from 15 to 30$ up ,60$ still makes for big profit margins and means a +/- 100% price rise in 18-24
months.
Just look at Exxon, they are the biggest one in the DOW and they made the biggest jump forward.

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 12):
Quoting Arniepie (Reply 3):
Knowing that the oil/energy sector are having a golden time

You should have a look at BP and Conoco/Phillips and their problems in Alaska. Not such a "golden time" up here . . . I'll let you do the research though. BP alone will face hundreds of millions of dollars in repair costs and fines. The only thing golden BP is getting at the moment is a shower .

Tough luck for BP and partners, but they have no direct influence on the DOW as far as I know.
[edit post]
 
ANCFlyer
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RE: Will It Break The Barrier

Tue Oct 17, 2006 10:24 pm

Quoting Arniepie (Reply 16):
Tough luck for BP and partners, but they have no direct influence on the DOW as far as I know.

Reallly?

Oil affects the market. BP is the largest producer up here, DIRECTLY affecting 15-20% of the crude supply for the US.

You don't think it affects the DOW?  scratchchin 

Please, next time your pump prices roll over $3 a gallon and the market tanks a hundred points because of crude oil futures, remember you said that.

I do however agree tough luck for BP. If they'd spent the money to maintain the lines in the last ten years they wouldn't be spending ten times the money replacing the lines this year.
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TedTAce
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RE: Will It Break The Barrier

Tue Oct 17, 2006 10:39 pm

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 4):
it was a campaign platform for the Democratic party and 4 years ago, it was political football when President Bush introduced his stimulus package to jumpstart the economy after 9/11.

Politics as usual, and pandering to the uneducated. Next?

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 4):
No, but it's an indication of where the economy is heading.

 redflag  It CAN BE. Given months of back to back gains, yeah, in all likelyhood business is doing well. But just because business is doing well doesn't mean that the nation is un-equivocally doing well.

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 11):
Is it? Hrrmmm.

Yeah, if you owned real estate, you'd know better.

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 11):
So Bush and his are cooking the books and end of day results in order to fool the American people?

Cooking what books?

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 11):
We had 3 straight of strong new home sales due to low intrest rates.

3 Straight what? Male Flight attendants? Months, Years??  Wink

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 12):
Oil prices are under $60bbl but the market continues to rise.

Duh. I believe it's called an inverse relationship. A few years ago I would have point blank said commodity prices have almost nothing to do with stock prices. In a lot of ways this still holds true, however the price of oil has such a huge impact on most corporate margins that these values are a lot more tangibly relative.
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Arniepie
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RE: Will It Break The Barrier

Tue Oct 17, 2006 11:43 pm

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 17):
You don't think it affects the DOW?

Since it's not one of the 30 company's that make up the DOW it's fair to say that there is no direct influence on the DOW.

Offcourse they have a (big) influence on the market in general, there's no doubt about that and I'm not disputing it.
The thread,as far as I understand it correctly, seemed to be dealing with the state of the economy in direct relation with the DJ.

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 17):
Please, next time your pump prices roll over $3 a gallon

AH 3$/gallon , we won't see that ever again over here. crying 

Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 17):
and the market tanks a hundred points because of crude oil

I think we are now seeing exactly the opposite effect.
[edit post]
 
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jetjack74
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RE: Will It Break The Barrier

Thu Oct 19, 2006 1:36 am

Quoting Dtwclipper (Reply 15):
Why is it, that if you don't like the message you immediately attack the messenger and accuse the writer of bias and anti-bush tactics?

#1, i'm not attacking the messenger. I'm attacking the notion that what this guy is stating is FACT, which it isn't. #2, this is a loose opinion based on his own conventional wisdom, but Allan Sloan has been attacking the the validity of this economy since day one. He pu pu-ed the tax cuts as pointless and a wrong road to go down. He was one of the naysayers about sustained job growth (where we've had record number of jobs created in the last 3 years). This was one of the guys who was downplaying everything about the economy, so I think his opinions should be used as nothing more than a glorified catbox liner.

Quoting Dtwclipper (Reply 15):
Sloan is a well respected business writer, and without taking this down a notch, he is most assuredly more astute to the truth of the matter then you OR I.

He's an idealog, pundit. All the awards, to me is meaningless. When 1st went into the Navy, it always was a mystery to me, why all the paper pushers and OB's(office bitches) have some many awards. It was impressive to me for so long until I realised how it happens. They give themselves these awards. They sit around in a nice air-conditioned office putting papers in folders, staring at a computer screen for 4-5 hours a day, (while the real men and women, are out on the hanger deck floors, out in the fields, moving the dirt and getting fired at). But at the end of the day, these Admin assistants end up with all the awards looking like war heros. Now, i'm not sour grapes for these people, they work hard, but it is so much easier fr them to get recognition because of where they work and who they rub shoulders with. I've never had a cush job or been in a position where I get recognised for my work. I live in obscurity and I like it that way. But just this guy has numerous awards for his work, it doesn't mean it's a great piece of work. In media, if you smoke the right pole and tow the line, you'll live in a charmed existance. Besides, this guy being great buddies with Bill Moyers, tells me all I need to know about Allan Sloan.

Quoting Arniepie (Reply 16):
Just look at Exxon, they are the biggest one in the DOW and they made the biggest jump forward.

And in the last 3 months, Exxon/Mobil, Unocal and others have been hit with lower profits and have been the bigger losers in earnings after record high profits. It's checks and balances. The market fluctuates, and now due to oversupply, the price per barrel has gone down.

Quoting TedTAce (Reply 18):
It CAN BE.

So we agree that it CAN BE an indicator.

Quoting TedTAce (Reply 18):
Yeah, if you owned real estate, you'd know better.

I do own real estate. It's part of how I make a living in this world. I've been fortunate that it's paid off for me in the last few years.

Quoting TedTAce (Reply 18):
Cooking what books?

Exactly.

Quoting TedTAce (Reply 18):
3 Straight what? Male Flight attendants? Months, Years??

I was supposed to say years, but I forgot to proofread that portion of the statement. Now Ted, I know you well enough that you don't believe that 3 straight-male flight attendants exist.

Quoting TedTAce (Reply 18):
But just because business is doing well doesn't mean that the nation is un-equivocally doing well.

I never said that. Never came close. But the other side has said such things as the current economy is "the worst", "a jobless recovery", Bush's handling economy is the modern day equivolent to "Hoovervilles", where it has been everything BUT!!!

And BTW the DJIA, broke 12,000 at 8:56AM EDT
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TedTAce
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RE: Will It Break The Barrier

Thu Oct 19, 2006 1:56 am

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 20):
I know you well enough that you don't believe that 3 straight-male flight attendants exist.

I believe there is one, and he works for Miami Air as a purser.

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 20):
"a jobless recovery"

Which shows how stupid Dem's can be. That is the wrong verbiage. They should be harping on how poor the quality of pay is for the jobs that are being created.

I'm sorry, but I'd rather create 5,000 GOOD paying jobs (with benefits) as opposed to 15,000 shitty jobs with no benefits. But politics are politics and both parties tie themselves to quantity, not quality... how dumb us Americans are to believe this  redflag 
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AGM100
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RE: Will It Break The Barrier

Thu Oct 19, 2006 2:10 am

Forget the President , how many jobs did you create this year ..?. I know I did my share . These are great times in the US , but they will not last . It does not have anything to do with politicians !! Its about what you do .. If you want to start a business now is the best time. Capital is available and the market place is huge ! The world markets are so much easier to access now ,, Do what americans do best ! Create something , sell something !
You dig the hole .. I fill the hole . 100% employment !
 
jaysit
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RE: Will It Break The Barrier

Thu Oct 19, 2006 2:40 am

The DOW is where it is because Ben Bernanke has been doing a good job and fears of inflation have eased. And Wall Street has come to trust Bernanke.

Btw, the DOW hit 12,000 already.

But the DOW has been increasing steadily over the past 20 years, especially during the Clinton era 1990s. It first hit 5,000 in 1995, and then 10,000 in 1999, then almost hit 12,000 in early 2000, and then bottomed out in 2002 at less than 8000 just before the mid-term elections.

I assume that Jetjack voted for the Dems in 2000 based on the accelerating DJIA between 1995 and 2000. And then did the same in 2002.

Awaiting: Excuses and reasons from the usual suspects on how economic growth only happens under and because of a Republican administration, and when it happens under a Democratic White House, its only because Alan Greenspan got some from Andrea Mitchell that night.

Hoping you all prospered in the Stock Market over the past 15 years. I most certainly did.
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