andessmf
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Good Signs From Iran?

Tue May 01, 2007 1:50 am

Interesting report from the Guardian:

Inside the struggle for Iran

"A grand coalition of anti-government forces is planning a second Iranian revolution via the ballot box to deny President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad another term in office and break the grip of what they call the "militia state" on public life and personal freedom."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/frontpage/story/0,,2068649,00.html

Let us fervently hope that this is at least the beginning of the end for the Iranian theocracy.
 
kaitak
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RE: Good Signs From Iran?

Tue May 01, 2007 4:30 am

I would like to think this was true, but don't forget that anyone with any kind of humanity would probably be stopped from standing for election (Khatami was an aberration in this respect and the mullahs probably decided they weren't going to make that mistake again), so the array of candidates is probably likely to be limited.

That said, ultimately, the repressive they get (this business about western hairstyles and the way women wear scarves), the worse things will ultimately get for the Islamists. You can only push people too far; I believe there is a pressure cooker effect, in that the more people are repressed and downtrodden, the more violent the final conflict will be. And it will come. If Ahmedinejad and Khamenei don't want to end up swinging from cranes, they should try and tone down the repression a bit; of course, they won't, but ultimately, it'll be there loss.

The big issue, I think, will not be so much the "religious" strictures and repression, but the fact that the Iranian economy is doing extremely badly. Thousands of educated Iranians are fleeing abroad, unemployment is very high and the country's image abroad, as an international pariah, is deterring investment.

I look forward to the establishment of the Republic of Iran, which will be a beacon of tolerance and justice throughout the Middle East.
 
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jetjack74
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RE: Good Signs From Iran?

Tue May 01, 2007 6:11 am

Quoting AndesSMF (Thread starter):
Let us fervently hope that this is at least the beginning of the end for the Iranian theocracy.

Well, i'll believe it when we see the angry scores of anti government protesters like we saw in 1979 and lynch-mobs leading blind-folded gov't officials in the streets and parading in the streets for democratic reforms. I'm highly skeptical that their will be a violent uprising like that, but that would be the only way a new gov't could form. The current Iran gov't came to power by force during a time when Islamo-facism was reaching a crescendo and the western-friendly gov't was toppled. The only way this would really work is if relations between the US and Islamic world was warming. With the War on Terror the last few years, being fought in 2 Islamic countries, that situation is unlikely to happen anytime soon.
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andessmf
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Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2006 8:53 am

RE: Good Signs From Iran?

Tue May 01, 2007 6:33 am

Quoting Jetjack74 (Reply 2):
With the War on Terror the last few years, being fought in 2 Islamic countries, that situation is unlikely to happen anytime soon

When I read my Iranian history and when others with more knowledge than I express their thought, two things are clear:

1. The 1979 revolution was NEVER about starting a theocracy. The mullahs were but a small part of the revolution, but were able to exploit the revolution and the war with Iraq (Saddam believed Iran was at its weakest) to consolidate power. Iranian society was quite modern by 1979.

2. The vast majority of Iranians (youth) are the most pro-American of the entire area.

Unfortunately, with all the problems about their nuclear program, it has been lost in the news about the explosive state of their population. It should be fairly easy to create a counter-revolution and bring back Iran from the 19th century.
 
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jetjack74
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RE: Good Signs From Iran?

Tue May 01, 2007 9:03 am

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 3):
2. The vast majority of Iranians (youth) are the most pro-American of the entire area.

I don't know, I have a hard time believeing they're pro-American. I mean, most of them are too young to remember Islamic Revolution. True they aren't wild about Ahmadinejad, and niether is most of the rest of Iranian citizens. I think they're probably more pro-European than pro-American

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 3):
It should be fairly easy to create a counter-revolution and bring back Iran from the 19th century.

A pipedream my friend. I'm not holding my breath
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